While much of the broader market has suffered from recent global conflict in the Middle East, ASX energy shares have charged higher.

The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) rose 1.2% yesterday while many other sectors fell. 

This index is now up 33% year to date, while the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down just over 4%. 

Some ASX energy shares that have enjoyed strong returns lately include: 

• Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL) is up 72% year to date
• Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) is up 32%
• Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) has risen 15% in March 
• NexGen Energy Ltd (ASX: NXG) is up nearly 9% year to date. 

Why are energy shares rising?

ASX energy shares are rising mainly because oil and gas prices have surged, driven by geopolitical tensions (especially in the Middle East) and supply disruptions, which tighten global energy supply.

Higher energy prices also increase inflation expectations, making energy stocks more attractive compared to other sectors like tech.

At the same time, investors are rotating into commodities and defensive sectors, pushing more money into energy shares.

Investors may be concerned about whether this rally can continue. Here are some recent outlooks for these high performing ASX energy shares. 

Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL)

Yancoal Australia is sitting at a 52-week high at the time of writing, after it climbed nearly 4% yesterday. 

Yancoal has a diversified mix of metallurgical and thermal coal mines, with primary geographical markets Japan, Singapore, China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. 

It closed yesterday trading at $8.63. 

After hitting record highs, analysts now view the stock as overvalued. 

According to five analysts offering forecasts via TradingView, Yancoal has an average one year price target of $7.66. 

This target is 11% lower than yesterday’s closing price. 

Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD)

Ampol shares rose another 1% during yesterday’s trade. 

It is the largest, and only Australian-listed, petroleum refiner and distributor. 

After rising 15% in March, analysts now see the stock as fully valued. 

10 analysts have an average one year price target of $33.68 according to TradingView, right around yesterday’s closing price of $33.44. 

Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR)

Karoon Energy is another energy stock hovering close to its 52-week high. 

It rose a healthy 4.5% yesterday to close trading at $2.06. 

The company is an oil and gas explorer and producer with assets in Brazil.

It is also now fully valued based on targets from analysts. 

9 analyst ratings via TradingView have a one year forecast of $2.04, suggesting there is little future upside. 

NexGen Energy Ltd (ASX: NXG)

NexGen Energy an exploration and development stage entity engaged in the acquisition, exploration, evaluation, and development of uranium properties in Canada.

This ASX energy stock has almost doubled in the last year. 

However unlike the previous three stocks, it appears experts believe this company can continue to rise in 2026. 

UBS recently put a 12 month share price target of $21. 

From yesterday’s closing price of $15.51, that’s suggests almost 35% upside. 

19 analysts’ forecasts via TradingView paint a similar picture, with an average price target of $21.18. 

The post Can these red hot ASX energy shares keep charging higher? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• These two ASX 200 stocks are hitting fresh 52-week highs
• ASX 200 energy shares lead the market for a third week
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

There are a few ASX dividend stocks that I think could be excellent to buy in virtually any situation. One of those appealing options, in my view, is APA Group (ASX: APA).

I’ve written for years about how important I view the business for Australia, and recent events make the business even more essential.

APA has a wide range of assets, including electricity transmission, wind farms, solar farms, gas storage, gas processing, and gas-powered energy generation. Its key asset is its network of gas pipelines which transports half of the country’s usage, taking gas from sources of supply to where it’s needed.

Aside from my general point that the business provides important energy, I think there are a couple of great reasons to like this ASX dividend stock.

Excellent passive income stability

APA has one of the most pleasing records when it comes to stable and growing payouts. APA has increased its annual payout every year for the past 20 years, which has been good for investors who want reliable income.

The business is planning to increase its annual payout by 1 cent per security in FY26 to 58 cents. At the time of writing, that translates into a forward distribution yield of 6.1%, excluding any potential franking credits.

In my view, any ASX dividend stock with a starting yield of more than 6%, and a high likelihood of ongoing payout growth, seems very attractive to me.

The ASX dividend stock has growth potential

APA has steadily grown its portfolio of assets over the years, including renewable energy, electricity transmission and more pipelines.

It has organic revenue growth built in, with a large majority of its revenue linked to inflation. This could mean revenue growth accelerates in FY27, depending on how the events in the Middle East play out.

In February, the business announced that it planned to progress stage 3 of its east coast gas grid expansion plan, which is expected to add approximately 30% of additional capacity and address projected southern market gas shortfalls from 2028.

APA will invest close to $500 million for this capacity expansion.

The ASX dividend stock’s calculations suggest that domestic gas delivered from northern supply markets can be delivered into southern markets at a cost, including transport, materially below the cost of imported LNG.

            APA CEO and Managing Director Adam Watson said:

The notion that Australia, as one of the three largest LNG exporters in the world, would need to resort to importing LNG when lower cost, lower emissions domestic gas is readily available, simply doesn’t make sense and would represent a massive failure of government policy. The current Federal Government Gas Market Review provides the opportunity to avoid that failure for the long-term.

Incremental investment in existing pipeline infrastructure is a logical, proven and timely solution to meet domestic gas needs. AEMO’s 2025 Gas Statement of Opportunities clearly states that expansion of existing pipelines, along with unlocking northern supply, would meet forecast gas needs well out into the 2030s without an LNG import terminal.

When you look at the data, when compared to LNG imports, it’s clear APA’s expansion projects are the most reliable, cost-efficient and lower emissions solution to get Australian gas to where it’s needed.

I think this ASX dividend stock will be an important part of the Australian economy for decades to come, making it a compelling long-term buy.

The post I’d buy this ASX dividend stock in any market appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 3 of the best ASX dividend shares for income investors to buy
• Want to build a second income? I’d buy these ASX shares today
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• 3 top ASX dividend shares with 6%+ yields
• 5 high-yield ASX dividend shares paying 6% to 10%

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

For investors looking to generate reliable income, ASX dividend shares remain an important part of the market.

While interest rates are rising, a number of shares continue to offer attractive dividend yields supported by stable cash flows and long-term contracts.

Here are three ASX dividend shares that could be worth considering.

APA Group (ASX: APA)

The first ASX dividend share that could appeal to income investors is APA Group.

It owns and operates a vast portfolio of energy infrastructure assets, including gas pipelines, storage facilities, and electricity transmission networks. These assets play a critical role in Australia’s energy system.

A key strength of APA is its contracted revenue model. Much of its income is generated through long-term agreements with customers, which provides strong visibility over future cash flows.

This stability supports consistent dividend payments and has helped the company build a reputation as a reliable income stock.

With a yield above the market average and exposure to essential infrastructure, APA Group could be a solid option for income-focused investors.

Lottery Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLC)

Another ASX dividend share to consider is The Lottery Corporation.

It operates some of Australia’s most recognisable lottery brands and generates revenue through ticket sales across its network.

What makes this business attractive is the defensive nature of its earnings. Lottery sales tend to be relatively stable across economic cycles, supported by consistent customer demand and strong brand recognition.

The company also benefits from high margins and a capital-light model, which allows it to generate strong cash flow.

This supports its ability to pay dividends, making it an appealing option for investors seeking income from a business with resilient earnings.

Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)

A final ASX dividend share that could be worth a look is Transurban Group.

It owns and operates toll roads across Australia and North America, generating revenue from millions of daily trips.

Its assets are underpinned by long-term agreements, often lasting decades, which provide strong visibility over future income.

In addition, toll prices typically increase annually, often linked to inflation. This can support steady revenue growth and underpin growing dividend payments over time.

With a dividend yield comfortably above the current cash rate and a portfolio of high-quality infrastructure assets, Transurban could be a top option for income investors.

The post 3 of the best ASX dividend shares for income investors to buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Where to invest $2,000 in ASX dividend shares this week
• How I’d build a world-class ASX passive income portfolio
• 2 ASX dividend shares with 5%+ yields and buy ratings
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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended The Lottery Corporation and Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group and Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended The Lottery Corporation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Ongoing conflict has rattled global markets. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is now down 9% since the beginning of March. 

With such volatility, investors may be reviewing their strategies to understand what can help provide relief in the current environment. 

A new report from VanEck has shed light on the interesting pendulum of growth and value investing. 

Over the long term, the relative returns of value and growth companies are negatively correlated. In other words, in the past, when value has outperformed, it probably has coincided with a period in which growth underperformed and vice versa.

According to MSCI, individual factors have been shown to outperform during different macroeconomic environments. Value is “pro-cyclical”, meaning that this type of strategy historically outperforms during rising market conditions.

What’s the difference between growth and value investing?

There are many different strategies investors use to grow their wealth. 

Two common strategies investors use are growth and value investing. 

Growth investors focus on companies expected to deliver above-average earnings or revenue expansion, often prioritising future potential over current valuation metrics. 

It is commonly associated with sectors where companies can scale quickly, innovate, and expand revenues at above-average rates. 

The Technology sector is the classic example, like companies focussed on software, semiconductors, or artificial intelligence. 

These businesses can grow rapidly with relatively low marginal costs. 

The healthcare sector – especially biotech and pharmaceuticals – is also prominent, as breakthroughs can lead to explosive earnings growth.

In contrast, value investors seek stocks that appear undervalued relative to their intrinsic worth, often identified through low valuation multiples or temporarily depressed prices, with the belief that the market will eventually correct its mispricing. 

While growth investing emphasises momentum, innovation, and scalability, value investing relies on patience, margin of safety, and mean reversion. 

How to target these strategies with ASX ETFs

There are several ASX ETFs to consider for those targeting growth or value shares. 

For growth, ETFs to consider include: 

• Vanguard Diversified High Growth Index ETF (ASX: VDHG)
• ETFs Fang+ ETF (ASX: FANG)
• Munro Asset Management – Munro Global Growth Fund (ASX: MAET). 

For value investing: 

• Vanguard Global Value Equity Active ETF (Managed Fund) (ASX: VVLU)
• VanEck Msci International Value ETF (ASX: VLUE). 

In terms of performance, these growth funds are down between 5% and 15% year to date. 

While the value funds have perhaps weathered the storm slightly better, falling between 2% and 5%. 

It’s important to remember this small snapshot is not representative of long term opportunity. 

However, according to VanEck, current conditions may favour a value focus. 

In the past twelve months, however, changes in macroeconomic indicators potentially bode well for a value rotation, and inflation, being driven by supply shocks from the crisis in the Gulf, could propel value’s recent relative outperformance further.

Inflationary expectations have risen sharply since the US-Iran conflict commenced. A higher inflation environment supports value company valuations, and we think the current upward pressure on long-dated bond yields is likely to remain if the market remains uncertain about growth and inflation. Value typically outperforms in such an environment.

The post Should investors be targeting growth or value ASX ETFs right now? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It’s never easy watching a high-quality ASX growth stock fall heavily.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares hit a multi-year low of $40.31 on Monday, taking their decline over the past year to just over 50%.

The key question is whether the business has deteriorated to match it.

From what I can see, the answer is no.

This ASX growth stock is still moving forward

When I look past the share price underperformance, I still see a company with strong momentum.

WiseTech continues to grow, expand its platform, and deepen its position in global logistics software. Its CargoWise platform is used by major freight forwarders and logistics providers around the world, and once embedded, it becomes very difficult to replace.

The company is also scaling rapidly.

Its latest half-year update showed total revenue up 76% and EBITDA up 31%, supported by both organic growth and the integration of e2open.

This isn’t a business that has stalled. It’s still expanding.

AI is a risk, but also a major opportunity

A big part of the recent selloff appears to be tied to concerns around artificial intelligence (AI).

The fear is that AI could disrupt software companies by reducing the need for traditional platforms.

But in WiseTech’s case, I actually think AI strengthens the investment case.

Management has been very clear that AI is being embedded into the platform to increase automation, improve customer outcomes, and drive efficiency.

In fact, the company has stated that AI is creating “a step change in customer value proposition” and enabling significantly more automation across its software.

Rather than replacing WiseTech, AI could make its platform more valuable and more deeply integrated into customer workflows.

The moat is bigger than just software

Another point that I think is often overlooked is what actually makes WiseTech hard to compete with.

It’s not just the software itself.

The company has built a global network across the logistics ecosystem, connecting thousands of participants and embedding itself into real-time workflows.

That network effect is difficult to replicate.

According to its recent update, WiseTech now connects over 500,000 enterprises across manufacturing, logistics, and distribution, reinforcing its position as a central platform in global trade.

That kind of scale creates a moat that goes well beyond code.

A signal from management

One detail that caught my attention recently was insider buying.

WiseTech’s CEO, Zubin Appoo, purchased around $1 million worth of shares on market following the latest results.

That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does suggest confidence from someone with the best visibility into the business.

In my experience, that’s usually worth noting.

Why I think this could be an opportunity

A 50% share price decline often reflects a combination of concerns.

In this case, it looks like a mix of tech sector weakness, AI disruption fears, and uncertainty around integration and execution.

But when I step back, I still see a business with strong annual recurring revenue, a deeply embedded global platform, expanding scale and capability, and a clear strategy around AI.

The share price has fallen sharply, but the long-term story appears largely intact.

That’s usually where I start to get interested.

Foolish takeaway

This ASX growth stock has been hit hard by market sentiment, pushing it down more than 50% and to multi-year lows.

But the business itself continues to grow, evolve, and strengthen its position in global logistics.

AI may be creating uncertainty in the short term, but I think it has the potential to enhance, not disrupt, WiseTech’s platform over time.

For patient investors, this looks like the kind of setup that could be worth buying and holding for the long term.

The post One ASX growth stock down over 50% to buy and hold appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It appears momentum is growing for a gas and coal tax in Australia amidst the global energy crisis.

According to The ABC, Unions, the Greens, crossbenchers and One Nation are among those who want gas profits levied, with pressure mounting on Labor to respond to growing calls to reform the current tax system.

What is a gas tax?

Currently, the government collects about $1.5 billion in annual revenue through the Petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT).

In simple terms:

• It’s a tax on profits, not on total sales
• Companies only pay PRRT after they’ve made enough money to cover all their costs
• Once a project becomes really profitable, the government takes a share of those extra profits.

However, some politicians are now pushing for reforms to the current model.

ACT independent senator David Pocock has criticised this current system as a “rip-off”.

He said Australia should have a flat 25 per cent tax on all gas exports, which was the proposal also put forward by the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) last year.

The Australia Institute has estimated it would raise about $17 billion a year.

What’s happening now?

According to The ABC, The Coalition and gas exporters have pushed back against this proposed change, arguing the current energy crisis sparked by war in the Middle East was the worst time to act. 

They warned that a new gas tax would discourage investment, create uncertainty, and weaken energy security and job growth.

Total taxes and royalties paid by the gas industry were $21.9 billion in 2024-25, according to the sector.

However, The Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet have reportedly asked the Treasury to model “new levy options” to tax windfall gas and thermal coal company profits ahead of the federal budget in May.

In the rationale for the request, which also included exploring reforms to the PRRT, the department said that energy producers should not benefit from high international prices at the expense of domestic customers.

How does this impact energy stocks?

It’s important to understand that any sort of concrete tax changes have not been promised.

If tweaks were to be made to the current system, it could impact energy stocks in a few ways. 

For ASX-listed oil, gas, and coal companies, a new “gas tax” (especially something like a flat export levy) would likely reduce earnings. 

Companies such as Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) or Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could see a direct hit to net profit, especially on export-heavy LNG projects.

However, even with an increased tax, these companies will likely remain very profitable.

Some investors may view the sector as still attractive, just less lucrative than before.

Further down the pipeline, second-order effects spread across producers, infrastructure, services, and even utilities – some negatively, some potentially positively.

For example, companies such as AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL) might actually benefit if policy shifts increase domestic supply or lower local gas prices.

While this is all hypothetical, developments are worth monitoring for ASX energy investors, as eyes will be on the federal budget in May.

The post What would a gas tax mean for ASX energy stocks? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It has been a miserable stretch for ASX investors, to say the least, over these past three weeks. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has fallen 9.1% since the start of the month on 2 March, dragged lower by surging energy prices and fears about the global economic fallout from the conflict in the Middle East. But amid all of that selling, there are pockets of the market that have quietly been holding water. One of the most interesting of those pockets are ASX tech stocks.

On the whole, tech stocks have done better than the broader market. Over that same period, the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index (ASX: XIJ) has dropped by a milder 5.9%, easily outperforming the ASX 200.

But I want to talk about two popular ASX tech stocks today that are particularity interesting.

The first is software stock TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE). Incredibly, TechnologyOne shares are above where they were at the beginning of March. Since 2 March, the TechnologyOne share price has gained a rosy 10.9%, as of yesterday’s close.

The second is medical imaging company Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME). The Pro Medicus stock price has gained 6.7% since 3 March.

TechnologyOne has not made any significant price-sensitive ASX announcements this month. Pro Medicus has, a $40 million contract announcement on 9 March.

Although that contract could explain dome of this outperformance, investor optimism over both stocks this month has caught my eye. That’s because as ASX tech shares that traditionally trade on eye-wateringly high earnings multiples, both TechnologyOne shares and Pro Medicus stock have often been some of the first shares to drop in past sell-offs when markets have switched to ‘risk-off mode’.

Other such stocks, such as the ASX banks, have acted as one might have assumed they would. But not TechnologyOne or Pro Medicus.

Why are these ASX tech stocks an unexpected safe harbour?

So what’s different this time?

Well, I think we are seeing a fascinating dynamic playing out here.

Back in February, before the war started, markets were riding high. It seems strange to think, but it was only on 2 March that the ASX 200 was at a new all-time record. However, both Pro Medicus and TechnologyOne were not riding high. In fact, both had endured a horrid start to 2026. Between 1 January and 2 March, Pro Medicus shares took a 43.6% dive. It wasn’t so bad for TechnologyOne, but that company had still lost 10.4% of its value over that span.

As you may recall, January and February were both months where the ‘SaaSpocalypse’ was in full swing. Investors began to fear that artificial intelligence (AI) technology was about to make software that individuals, businesses and governments around the world rely on redundant. Almost every company that draws its money from a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model was abandoned by investors. We saw it over in the US too, with names like Adobe, Salesforce and S&P Global hit hard.

Of course, that all seems like a storm in a teacup now. So much so, apparently, that ASX tech stocks like Pro Medicus and TechnologyOne seem to now be viewed as safe harbours to hide out in amid the geopolitical conflagrations that are now dominating investors’ attention.

Strange things happen on the markets.

The post Up 11%: Why have these 2 ASX tech stocks surged in March? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in S&P Global. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Adobe, S&P Global, Salesforce, and Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus and has recommended the following options: long January 2028 $330 calls on Adobe and short January 2028 $340 calls on Adobe. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Adobe, Pro Medicus, Salesforce, and Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

On Monday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) started the week with a decline. The benchmark index fell 0.75% to 8,365.9 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Tuesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 set to rebound

The Australian share market looks set for a good session on Tuesday following a positive start to the week in the US. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 159 points or 1.9% higher. In late trade on Wall Street, the Dow Jones is up 1.5%, the S&P 500 is up 1.25%, and the Nasdaq is 1.5% higher.

Oil prices crash

It could be a difficult session for ASX 200 energy shares Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) after oil prices crashed overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 10.3% to US$88.18 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 11.6% to US$99.14 a barrel. This was driven by news that Donald Trump has paused strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days.

BHP and Rio Tinto shares to rebound

It looks set to be a good session for BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares on Tuesday. Both miners’ NYSE listed shares are charging higher on Monday night and up 4.5% and 3.5%, respectively. Improving investor sentiment and a strong rebound in the copper price overnight appear to be behind this.

Gold price sinks

ASX 200 gold shares including Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) could have a poor session on Tuesday after the gold price sank overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 3.6% to US$4,410.7 an ounce. Inflation fears have been weighing on the precious metal.

Boss Energy named as a buy

The team at Bell Potter has named Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) shares as a buy. In response to concerns over high diesel prices impacting mining margins, the broker highlights that the uranium miner’s project is powered by the grid. It said: “The Honeymoon project draws power directly from the grid (connected to Broken Hill). In-situ-recovery operations by nature do not require high-diesel consuming truck and shovel fleet typically seen in open-pit operations. The only exposure is via 3rd party site deliveries for reagents.” It has put a buy rating and $1.95 price target on the ASX 200 share.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Where to from here for BHP shares after crashing over 20%?
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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) share price has come under selling pressure in recent weeks.

On Monday, Northern Star shares finished at $17.21, down 6.97% for the session. This leaves the stock down more than 20% over the past week and roughly 40% over the past month.

The decline follows a combination of company-specific issues and weakness in the gold price.

Let’s take a closer look at what has been driving the sell-off.

Guidance downgrade shakes confidence

The initial move lower came after Northern Star released an operational update earlier this month.

In that update, the company revised its FY26 production outlook toward the lower end of its guidance range. Management flagged a weaker than expected performance across several key operations.

At KCGM, milling performance was below expectations, while mining productivity at Jundee also disappointed the market. These issues weighed on output and raised concerns about execution risk.

Gold sales for January and February totalled approximately 220,000 ounces. Open pit grades at KCGM averaged around 1.6 grams per tonne, which was below expectations.

The company also noted that performance at KCGM remains dependent on the existing mill, which is not running consistently.

While the Northern Star still expects to produce more than 1.5 million ounces for FY26, the downgrade has reset investor expectations.

Gold price weakness adds further pressure

The second driver of the sell-off has been the pullback in the gold price.

According to recent data, gold is now trading at approximately US$4,237 per ounce, down around 5% in the latest session. Over the past month, it has also fallen from recent highs.

Moves in the gold price directly impact Northern Star’s revenue and margins.

A lower realised gold price reduces cash flow, particularly when combined with operational challenges. This points to a weaker earnings outlook in the near-term.

The timing of the gold price decline has added to the impact of the downgrade, accelerating the fall in the share price.

Brokers cut targets as sentiment turns

The change in outlook has also been reflected in recent broker updates.

Following the downgrade, several investment banks have reduced their price targets, reflecting lower earnings expectations.

Recent revisions include Ord Minnett cutting its target to $23.70, Morgans to $30, Canaccord to $28.40, Macquarie to $25, and Jefferies to $33 per share.

Keep in mind, these targets are well above the current Northern Star share price.

Foolish takeaway

Northern Star shares have fallen sharply in recent weeks, with the stock now trading near the lower end of its recent range.

The company is still expected to deliver more than 1.5 million ounces of production in FY26, but recent updates point to ongoing challenges.

At the same time, changes in the gold price are adding another layer of pressure.

From here, attention is likely to be focused on the company’s upcoming production updates and operating performance.

The post Down 40% in a month. Does the Northern Star share price have further to fall? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Genesis Energy, Northern Star, PLS, and WiseTech shares are falling today
• Should you buy these ASX gold stocks after last week’s crash?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week
• Do Northern Star shares have further to fall?

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX dividend shares could be a smart choice in this era of higher inflation. If costs are rising, I’d want to see my dividend income rising to help offset (or even outgrow) the pain.

There are not many businesses that I’m confidently expecting to deliver rising dividends in the coming results. A weaker economic environment could lead to some businesses deciding to maintain (or even cut) their payouts.

However, the below three names are ones I’m feeling confident about for dividend growth in the foreseeable future.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS)

Telstra is one the ASX blue-chip shares I’m most optimistic will deliver dividend growth because of the nature of the service of what it provides. Many households, businesses and organisations seem to put an important value on having a mobile connection. I think that means the business has defensive earnings.

Telecommunications is important for numerous reasons these days such as work, education, entertainment, communication, shopping and so on.

Telstra has been steadily increasing its dividend payout in the last few years, including the FY26 half-year result. That report saw earnings per share (EPS) rise by 11.2% and the dividend per share was hiked by 10.5% to 10.5 cents.

I think it’s very likely that the business will want to pay another 10.5 cents per share with its FY26 annual report.

With Australia’s growing population and the prevalence of digitalisation, I think Telstra’s mobile subscriber base and average revenue per user (ARPU) are set to continue rising in the coming years, which will be a useful tailwind for earnings and the dividend.

PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund Ltd (ASX: PGF)

This is a listed investment company (LIC), which means it invests in shares to try to make returns for shareholders. The board of directors have the flexibility to declare the size of dividend they want to, assuming they have the profit reserve to do so.

The LIC looks at a global portfolio of shares to find the right undervalued opportunities that could deliver market-beating returns.

At 31 December 2025, the business reported it had retained earnings and profit reserves of $584 million, which is enough to maintain the minimum intended dividend rate for nine years.

Management have provided guidance that the business intends to deliver a minimum dividend per share of 13.5 cents in FY26. That’d be a year-over-year increase of 17%.

Of the last decade, FY23 is the only year that it hasn’t increased its payout. That’s thanks to an average portfolio return of 16.8% per year since inception in December 2013. That’s an excellent track record, I’d say, though it’s not guaranteed to continue at that level.

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co Ltd (ASX: SOL)

I view Soul Patts as the best option of all on the ASX for consistent growth.

It already holds the record for regular dividend growth – it has increased its payout each year since 1998 and it’s set up to continue that impressive dividend growth, in my view.

The businesses operates as an investment house, which means it has the flexibility to make investment buys (and sell investments) to adjust its portfolio to own assets that it thinks will provide good returns for investors.

Soul Patts is invested in a number of different areas such as resources, telecommunications, industrial property, building products, swimming schools, agriculture, credit and plenty more. I expect the portfolio to change in the coming years.

By retaining some of its investment cash flow each year, the company is able to steadily invest in expanding in its portfolio and unlock the next generation of growing assets which could fund larger dividends.

I like how the ASX dividend share has made growing its dividend one of the main objectives and I think management have done it very well so far. As a bonus, a growing portfolio also helps increase the underlying value of Soul Patts shares to help drive the share price higher over time.

The post 3 ASX dividend shares raising dividends like clockwork appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• You can aim to beat the Age Pension for the price of a daily coffee!

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.