Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) shares are having a rough finish to the week.

At the time of writing, the IAG share price is down 4.54% to $7.78.

The fall adds to a difficult 12 months for shareholders, with the ASX 200 insurance stock now down 11% over the past year.

It has recovered 4.2% since this time last month, but today’s move shows investors are still quick to sell when concerns start to appear.

The stock also remains well below its 52-week high of $9.18.

So, what has changed today?

Citi downgrade weighs on IAG shares

According to CMC Markets, Citi has downgraded IAG to ‘neutral’ from ‘buy’.

The downgrade comes as investors digest fresh commentary around the insurer’s possible exposure to the Greensill collapse.

Greensill Capital collapsed in 2021, triggering a long-running legal and financial fallout across several markets.

Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway has warned IAG could face a claim in an upcoming Greensill court fight, according to The Australian.

IAG writes well known insurance brands including NRMA, RACV and CGU, and has previously maintained that it avoided exposure to the Greensill disaster.

But the issue appears to have moved back into focus after recent developments involving other insurers and litigation reserves.

The company has provisioned $432 million for legal fees and claims handling, while saying it expects no net exposure.

Pittaway said this does not provide a major reason to question IAG’s declared net nil position by itself.

But he also said there’s a potential for the issue to resurface.

Why investors are nervous

Insurance stocks can look fairly defensive when premiums are rising and claims are manageable.

However, legal uncertainty can change how investors think about risk.

IAG is one of the biggest insurance businesses on the ASX with a market capitalisation of about $18.2 billion.

It also trades on a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of about 17 and has a dividend yield near 4%.

So, investors are not really looking at a distressed business. The concern is whether the unexpected legal costs could become larger than the market had expected.

The comparison with other insurers is also weighing on sentiment.

The Australian noted that Tokio Marine recently warned of significant litigation losses and reserve increases.

It also said Marsh has booked a US$425 million charge linked to Greensill litigation.

Foolish takeaway

The IAG share price is being hit today because investors took on another reason to question risk.

The business itself isn’t suddenly under pressure, but legal uncertainty can be enough to change sentiment.

And with the stock already down over the past year, today’s downgrade is adding more pressure.

The post Why this ASX 200 insurance stock is sinking today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Catapult Sports, IAG, Telstra, and Tuas shares are falling today
• 5 ASX 200 shares downgraded by the experts this week
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• 9 ASX 200 shares with renewed buy calls from the experts this week
• Where to invest with interest rates rising

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to end the week on a positive note. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is up 0.5% to 8,665 points.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here’s why they are falling:

Catapult Sports Ltd (ASX: CAT)

The Catapult Sports share price is down 5.5% to $3.55. Investors have been selling this sports technology company’s shares despite there being no news out of it. However, it is worth noting that Catapult’s shares have rallied very strongly this week following the release of its FY 2026 results. In fact, despite today’s pullback, the Catapult share price remains up almost 18% since this time last week. This could mean that some investors are taking a bit of profit off the table during Friday’s session.

Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG)

The IAG share price is down 4.5% to $7.77. This appears to have been driven by a broker note out of Citi this morning. According to the note, the broker has downgraded the insurance giant’s shares to a neutral rating (from buy) with an $8.50 price target. Citi made the move largely on valuation grounds following a recent share price rally. In addition, it has concerns over IAG’s exposure to Greensill-related litigation risks.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS)

The Telstra share price is down 1.5% to $5.38. This also may have been driven by the release of a broker note this morning. According to a note out of Macquarie, its analysts have downgraded Telstra’s shares to a neutral rating (from outperform) with a trimmed price target of $5.57 (from $5.64). The broker thinks investors should be looking at tech stocks in the current environment rather than defensive telcos. This is particularly the case given its belief that the defensive premium that Telstra shares command could be at risk as interest rates rise.

Tuas Ltd (ASX: TUA)

The Tuas share price is down 3.5% to $2.23. This follows news that the Singapore-based telco has terminated its proposed acquisition of M1 Limited. This follows news earlier this week that authorities had suspended the review of the deal after Tuas’ Simba business was found to have allegedly used spectrum it did not own. It said: “Simba continues to co-operate with the investigation being undertaken by the Infocomm Media Development Authority into potential breaches of the Telecommunications Act and the conditions of Simba’s Facilities-Based Operator Licence. Tuas will keep shareholders updated in relation to that investigation.”

The post Why Catapult Sports, IAG, Telstra, and Tuas shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 ASX 200 shares crashing in this week’s rebounding market
• Why this ASX 200 insurance stock is sinking today
• Morgan Stanley names 3 ASX shares to buy
• Why is everyone talking about Guzman Y Gomez, Tuas and Appen shares on Friday?
• 5 ASX 200 shares downgraded by the experts this week

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports and Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is often talked about as a software or semiconductor story.

That makes sense. The chips, models, and platforms are doing extraordinary things. But behind all of that is a less glamorous requirement: infrastructure.

AI needs enormous computing capacity. It needs data centres, land, power, cooling, network connectivity, and capital. It also needs companies capable of delivering complex projects in the right locations.

This week, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang described AI factories as “the largest infrastructure expansion in human history.”

That is a huge statement, but I think it captures why investors may need to think beyond the most obvious AI winners. The physical backbone of AI could be a major long-term opportunity in its own right.

Two S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares I’d buy for exposure to this theme are named in this article.

NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT)

NextDC is one of the most direct AI infrastructure plays on the ASX.

The company owns and operates data centres, which are becoming increasingly important as demand grows for cloud computing, cybersecurity, enterprise software, digital services, and AI workloads.

I like NextDC because it gives investors exposure to the capacity side of the AI boom. It does not need to create the best AI model or design the winning chip. Its role is to provide the infrastructure that helps customers run the digital workloads they need.

That can be a powerful place to sit if demand keeps rising.

The company’s recent update showed how strong that demand has become. NextDC announced record contracted utilisation and a major capital plan to support future growth.

This shows that large customers are locking in capacity well in advance, suggesting that high-quality data centre space is becoming increasingly strategically important.

There are risks. NextDC is capital-intensive, and building data centres requires a large upfront investment. Funding, construction, power availability, and customer concentration all need to be watched closely.

But I think those risks come with the territory. If AI infrastructure demand continues to grow, companies with available capacity, technical expertise, and strong customer relationships could be in a valuable position.

For investors wanting a direct ASX 200 exposure to data centre demand, NextDC would be high on my list.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

Goodman is another AI infrastructure opportunity.

It is best known as an industrial property giant, with logistics assets across major global markets. That part of the business remains attractive, supported by e-commerce, supply chain efficiency, and the need for well-located warehouse space.

But I think the data centre opportunity has become one of the most compelling parts of the Goodman story.

Data centres are not easy to build. They need suitable land, planning approvals, capital, customers, technical execution, and, increasingly, access to power. These constraints can make the right sites far more valuable.

This is where Goodman looks well placed. The company has a global development platform, relationships with major customers, and a track record of creating value from scarce, well-located assets. Its growing focus on data centres gives investors a way to benefit from the AI infrastructure boom while leveraging the backing of a broader property platform.

I also like that Goodman is not a pure-play data centre stock. That can reduce some of the reliance on one theme. Its logistics business still has long-term demand drivers, while data centres add another layer of potential growth.

The main risk is valuation. Goodman is a high-quality business, and the market often prices it that way. Large development pipelines also come with execution risk.

Even so, I think Goodman has the assets, capital discipline, and global reach to remain one of the best ASX 200 ways to invest in this infrastructure shift.

Foolish Takeaway

The AI boom is about more than chips and software.

If AI demand keeps growing, the world will need much more digital infrastructure to support it. That could create a long runway for companies providing data centre capacity, power access, and development expertise.

Neither share is risk-free, and both require patience. But if AI infrastructure really does become one of the defining investment themes of the next decade, these are two ASX 200 shares I would want in my portfolio.

The post 2 ASX 200 shares I’d buy for the AI infrastructure boom appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goodman Group and Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Goodman Group and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It’s never a bad idea to get some expert help when looking for shares that might be undervalued.

I’ve had a look at the research reports coming out of Morgan Stanley this week and picked out three which might be of interest.

Let’s have a look.

Catapult Sports Ltd (ASX: CAT)

Catapult specialises in technology which can be used to track sportspeople on the field and during training, with the metrics used by coaches and athletes to improve performance.

The company released its full year results this week, and said its annualised contract value increased 28% year-on-year to US$133.8 million.

Chief Executive Officer Will Lopes said it was a transformational year for the company.

He added:

We set ourselves ambitious targets: maintain our organic growth rate, reinvest meaningfully in our platform, and stay focused through a period of significant M&A. We delivered on all of them. These results reflect the efforts of every person at this company, and to the world-class sports teams who trust us with their performance every day.

Morgan Stanley said it was “another strong result, with operating metrics all improving”.

They added:

Of particular note was the pleasing progress made with bedding down the IMPECT and Perch acquisitions. Combined, they were the first material acquisitions made in some time by Management. We think the FY26 result demonstrated CAT’s ability to integrate and scale acquisitions effectively, with both IMPECT and Perch appearing to perform well post acquisition and contributing positively to growth, product breadth and cross-sell opportunities. This was achieved alongside delivering organic growth in the core business.

Morgan Stanley has an overweight rating on Catapult shares with a price target of $5.20 compared to $3.57 currently.

Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA)

An interesting takeaway from the Morgan Stanley research note on Bega is that they believe that the increased use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is a tailwind for the company, because it, “supports smaller, nutrient-dense, protein rich consumption occasions”.

They added:

This shift favours BGA’s convenient dairy formats, supporting volume, pricing, and margins over time.

Morgan Stanley is forecasting better than 20% compound annual growth in earnings per share for Bega from FY25-FY28, “driven by branded mix improvement and supply chain consolidation benefits”.

The broker has a price target of $6.70 on Bega shares compared to $5.42 currently.

Goodman Group Ltd (ASX: GMG)

Goodman is due to report its third quarter results next week.

Morgan Stanley has got in ahead of time with a research note that has a price target of $36.15 on the shares compared to $30.37 currently.

The broker said they will be looking for good news out of the company.

Given the VA Consensus is at FY26 EPS growth of 10%, we would suggest that the market is somewhat anticipating an earnings upgrade. However, the probability of a data centre contract/s is less certain, and therefore would be a positive surprise if delivered.

The post Morgan Stanley names 3 ASX shares to buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 2 ASX 200 shares I’d buy for the AI infrastructure boom
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• Are these ASX shares a buy, hold or sell after jumping 8% or more?

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports and Goodman Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

With only a few hours remaining before the end of trading on Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 0.5% for the week, with these four ASX 200 stocks racing ahead of those gains.

Which stocks smashed the benchmark returns this week?

I’m glad you asked!

Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP)

First up, we have Domino’s Pizza.

Shares in the fast-food pizza retailer closed last Friday trading for $15.72. At the time of writing, shares are changing hands for $17.36 each, putting this ASX 200 stock up 10.4% for the week.

There’s been no fresh price-sensitive news out from the company in some time. But with Domino’s shares kicking off this week down 28% year to date, investors may believe that the turnaround story is finally in play.

ALS Ltd (ASX: ALQ)

ALS shares are also enjoying a strong week of outperformance.

Shares in the testing services company closed last Friday trading for $22.20, and are currently trading for $24.29. That sees this ASX 200 stock up 9.4% for the week.

ALS shares look to have enjoyed a belated bump, following Monday’s release of the company’s full-year FY 2026 results.

Highlights for the 12 months included a 10.7% year-on-year increase in revenue to $3.32 billion. And on the bottom line, ALS reported underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) of $381 million, up 25.8% from FY 2025.

James Hardie Industries PLC (ASX: JHX)

The third ASX 200 stock smashing the benchmark returns this week is James Hardie.

James Hardie shares closed last week at $26.94 and are currently trading at $28.94 apiece, up 7.4%.

On Wednesday, James Hardie released its own full-year FY 2026 results.

The building materials company reported a 25% year-on-year increase in net sales, reaching US$4.84 billion over the 12 months. That growth was spurred by additional sales from the company’s acquisition of AZEK, a United States-based outdoor building products company.

Excluding that acquisition, James Hardie’s organic net sales were down by 2% from FY 2025.

Which brings us to…

Guzman Y Gomez (ASX: GYG)

Guzman Y Gomez shares are enjoying a welcome week of outperformance.

Shares in the Mexican fast-food restaurant chain closed last Friday trading for $17. At the time of writing today, shares are trading for $20.79, which sees this ASX 200 stock up an impressive 22.3% for the week.

Most of those gains are being delivered today.

Guzman Y Gomez shares are up 15% in early afternoon trade after the company announced that it was exiting its US market, where it’s struggled to achieve sales growth.

However, management offered a bullish assessment of Guzman Y Gomez’s Australia business, lifting full-year FY 2026 Australia Segment earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) guidance to around $85 million.

That’s 29% higher than the company’s FY 2025 EBITDA in Australia.

The post 4 ASX 200 stocks rocketing higher this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 4 ASX shares scoring upgraded ratings this week
• Morgans says this top ASX 200 share could rise over 30%
• Why is everyone talking about Guzman Y Gomez, Tuas and Appen shares on Friday?
• Macquarie names 3 ASX shares to buy for 40%+ returns
• 7 ASX shares with strengthened buy ratings this week

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is pushing higher again on Friday as investors take a more positive lead from Wall Street.

At the time of writing, the benchmark index is up 0.48% to 8,663 points.

The move has taken the ASX 200 to a 5-day high, with the index earlier trading as high as 8,672 points today.

It also follows a strong session on Thursday, when the index rose 1.47% after several rough days for local investors.

The ASX 200 is still down around 0.6% in 2026 and about 3.2% over the past month, so today’s move is not exactly a clean breakout.

But after a choppy stretch, buyers are starting to return to the market.

Here’s what is moving the index this afternoon.

Miners do the heavy lifting

Resources stocks are doing most of the work on Friday, with the S&P/ASX 200 Resources Index (ASX: XJR) up around 1.3%.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) are both trading higher, helping pull the ASX 200 further into positive territory.

They are up 1.35% and 2.30%, respectively.

Other resources names are also climbing, with gains across gold, rare earths, lithium, and diversified mining stocks.

The buying follows a stronger lead from Wall Street and a more positive session across global markets.

Oil prices have also eased from recent highs, which has taken some pressure off inflation concerns.

Brent crude is sitting around US$104 a barrel as investors watch for signs of progress in the Middle East conflict.

Wall Street gives investors a lift

Local investors also had a stronger lead from the United States.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) rose around 0.6% to a record close of 50,286 points, its first record since February.

The S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) also edged higher, while the Nasdaq finished slightly in the green despite weakness in Nvidia.

The stronger US session helped set up a better start for the Aussie market, with ASX 200 futures pointing higher before the open.

Guzman y Gomez shares jump on US exit

Guzman y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG) is one of the strongest movers on the market today.

The fast-food stock jumped after announcing plans to exit the US market and focus on Australia and selected offshore markets.

The company said it would close its Chicago restaurants after deciding the US operations were no longer justified for further shareholder investment.

At the time of writing, the Guzman y Gomez share price is up 15.04% to $20.80.

Foolish Takeaway

Today’s rise gives the ASX 200 some breathing room after a difficult month.

Still, the index remains below its recent highs, and the 2026 return is still slightly negative.

Investors may be feeling better today, but the market still needs more than one strong session to rebuild confidence.

The post ASX 200 hits 5-day high as miners lead another rebound appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are 0.55% higher at 8,669.7 points on Friday.

Meanwhile, brokers have indicated new confidence in several ASX shares this week.

Let’s take a look.

Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX: ILU)

The Iluka Resources share price is $8.09, up 5.8% today.

This ASX 200 mining share is having a strong year, up 37% so far in 2026.

Ord Minnett upgraded Iluka Resources shares to a buy rating on Monday.

The broker upped its 12-month price target from $8 to $9.

This implies a potential 11% upside ahead.

Qualitas Ltd (ASX: QAL)

The Qualitas share price is $2.88, down 0.4% today.

Over the past month, this ASX 200 financial share has soared 22%.

Morgans upgraded Qualitas shares to a buy rating on Monday.

The broker increased its 12-month price target from $2.60 to $3.50.

This suggests a potential 21% upside ahead.

The broker said:

Following QAL’s recent 3QFY26 update, the announced changes to residential real estate investment in the Federal Budget and the sale of a further interest in the comparable Metrics Credit, we have upgraded QAL to a BUY with a $3.50/sh price target.

Our valuation and recommendation change was driven almost entirely by a reduction to our discretionary valuation discount (+75 cps), reflecting our lower perceived risk as a) the company reiterates that FUM commitments continue to increase and b) FUM deployments set new records.

Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG)

The Guzman Y Gomez share price is $20.58, up 13.7% today on news that the Mexican restaurant chain has abandoned its US expansion.

As a result, Guzman Y Gomez has closed its Chicago restaurants.

The company also announced increased FY26 earnings guidance for its Australian segment.

Guzman y Gomez now expects underlying FY26 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) of approximately $85 million, up 29% year over year.

Earlier this week, RBC Capital upgraded this ASX 200 retail share to a buy rating.

The broker gave Guzman Y Gomez shares a 12-month price target of $22, up from $20 previously.

Following today’s news, there’s just 4% upside left over the next year, based on the broker’s target.

TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE)

The TechnologyOne share price is $29.13, down 0.1% on Friday.

This ASX 200 tech share has fallen 23% over 12 months.

Morgans upgraded TechnologyOne shares from hold to accumulate this week.

This follows recent weakness in the TechnologyOne share price and the company’s 1H FY26 results.

The broker said:

TNE’s 1H26 result came in largely as expected, albeit with some FX headwinds, which otherwise would have seen its underlying result land ahead of consensus.

The group enters 2H26, with a strong pipeline of ‘Plus’ leads, which sees TNE well positioned to achieve the top end of its re-affirmed FY26 ARR/PBT Guidance.

Morgans lifted its 12-month target from $31.20 to $32.30, implying 11% potential upside ahead.

The post 4 ASX shares scoring upgraded ratings this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 4 ASX 200 stocks rocketing higher this week
• Why is everyone talking about Guzman Y Gomez, Tuas and Appen shares on Friday?
• Why are Guzman Y Gomez shares surging more than 15% higher?
• Guzman y Gomez exits US market, boosts Australia growth outlook
• This ASX tech stock just raised its dividend by 21%

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Qualitas and Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are looking for an ASX 200 share to buy, then it could be worth considering the blue chip in this article.

That’s because the team at Morgans believes it could be seriously undervalued at current levels and is tipping major upside over the next 12 months.

Which ASX 200 share?

The share that Morgans is positive on is James Hardie Industries plc (ASX: JHX). It is a global leader in high-performance fibre cement building materials.

In case you missed it, earlier this week James Hardie released its FY 2026 results and reported net sales of US$4.84 billion. This was up 25% from US$3.88 billion in FY 2025.

However, it is worth highlighting that this was largely supported by the contribution from the AZEK acquisition. On an organic basis, James Hardie’s net sales declined 2% for the year.

Management advised that full-year exterior product volumes fell high single digits, with single-family volumes down low double digits as softer construction conditions weighed on demand.

This ultimately led to statutory net income falling 75% to US$104 million, compared with US$424 million in FY 2025.

James Hardie’s CEO, Aaron Erter, was pleased with the “transformational” year. He said:

Fiscal 2026 was a transformational year for James Hardie, highlighted by the closing of the AZEK acquisition. As we integrate the businesses, we are seeing continued progress across both cost and commercial synergies, further strengthening our belief in the long-term value creation opportunity from the combination. For the full fiscal year, we delivered solid financial performance despite a challenging operating environment. Despite our markets declining mid-to-high single digits for the year, our organic net sales declined just 2% year over year.

Should you invest?

As mentioned at the top, after reviewing its results, Morgans thinks the ASX 200 share could be undervalued at current levels.

It has put a buy rating and $39.00 price target on its shares. Based on the current James Hardie share price of $28.95, this implies potential upside of 35% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its recommendation, Morgans said:

FY26 result was in line with Consensus (and a slight beat vs prior guidance), while Consensus for FY27 was at the top end of guidance. To this end, the company is forecasting FY27 pro forma growth of 4-8%, with siding back to organic growth. Market conditions remain subdued, citing lower builder activity and affordability pressures – looking forward management assumes no market recovery in FY27.

As such, FY26 can be chalked up as a transformational but financially dilutive year, while FY27 is about margin and cash-recovery driven by synergies rather than any improvement in the housing market. Buy retained, with a A$39.00/sh price target.

The post Morgans says this top ASX 200 share could rise over 30% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 4 ASX 200 stocks rocketing higher this week
• Macquarie names 3 ASX shares to buy for 40%+ returns
• 7 ASX shares with strengthened buy ratings this week
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• How high could James Hardie shares go? Brokers have their say

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Guzman Y Gomez (ASX: GYG), Tuas Ltd (ASX: TUA) and Appen Ltd (ASX: APX) shares are turning head today.

Two of the popular stocks are charging ahead of the 0.6% gains posted by the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) as we head into the Friday lunch hour, while one is mired in the red.

Here’s what’s catching investor interest.

Appen shares rocket on bullish AI outlook

Appen shares are off to the races today.

At time of writing, shares in the ASX All Ords AI applications data solutions provider are trading for $1.27 apiece up 13.4%.

The stock is turning heads following its annual general meeting (AGM) today.

Amid the ongoing artificial intelligence revolution, Appen CEO Ryan Kolln noted, “Appen plays a critical role in the AI ecosystem by providing high quality data that is used to build and monitor AI models.”

Pleasingly, the ASX tech stock also reaffirmed its fully year FY 2026 revenue guidance to be in the range of $270 million to $300 million. That compares to FY 2025 revenue of $231 million.

“We remain confident in the AI data market and in Appen’s ability to meaningfully contribute to the development of leading foundation models,” Kolln said, offering a bullish outlook for Appen shares.

Tuas shares sink further on axed M1 acquisition

Tuas shares are sliding today.

Shares in the ASX 200 Singapore-based telecom stock are down 1.3%, changing hands for $2.28 each.

This comes after the company announced the termination of its agreement to acquire Singapore telecom company M1 Limited. Tuas had reported its intentions to acquire M1 last year.

Today, management said that with several conditions precedent remaining unfulfilled by the required date, the company would not move forward with that purchase.

Tuas shares closed down a sharp 16.9% on Wednesday, when news broke that the company’s SIMBA mobile business “may have been using radio frequency bands that it was not authorised to use”.

Which brings to…

Guzman Y Gomez shares surge on US exit news

Joining Tuas and Appen shares in turning heads today we find Guzman Y Gomez shares.

Shares in the ASX 200 Mexican fast food restaurant chain are up 15.4% at time of writing, swapping hands for $20.87 apiece.

Investors are piling into Guzman Y Gomez shares after the company reported that it was exiting the United States market, where it’s been struggling to achieve sales growth.

But investors look to applauding the move, with management stating that the company’s Australian business is in “a solid position, with strong growth, world class unit economics and a significant network growth opportunity”.

With renewed focus on Australia, Guzman Y Gomez increased its full year FY 2026 Australia Segment earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) guidance to around $85 million. That’s 29% higher than FY 2025 earnings in Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Appen. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The diversified industrial company SGH Ltd (ASX: SGH) held an investor day this week, which gave analysts the opportunity to get a good handle on how the company is travelling.

Macquarie has issued a research note to its clients following the ASX 200 company’s presentations, and it’s fair to say they liked what they saw.

Macquarie said the company reiterated its full-year EBIT growth guidance of low to mid-single digits.

Disciplined growth

The Macquarie analyst team added:

SGH’s drive toward continuous improvement across its businesses remains a core tenet, seeking incremental gains at scale across businesses. For Boral, it means EBIT margins >15%, Coates seeks to drive further gains in time utilisation from the current 62% and WesTrac to extract further aftermarket service productivity. AI is seen as a key enabler of execution.

Macquarie said SGH had been successful over time in acquiring and improving assets, then deleveraging and acquiring again.

They said it was clear that “SGH seeks to continue this formula, with an emphasis on Australia, even if it is open to offshore opportunities too – this is a shift in intent, without any specifics”.

They added:

The group seeks EBIT growth of 10% through the cycle, balancing organic and inorganic growth roughly equally, on average. SGH sees identified growth opportunities in Property development, Crux, data centre build-out and exposure to growth thematics in infrastructure (and residential building when the cycle improves), mining production and energy.

Macquarie said while macroeconomic conditions remained complex, SGH’s execution remains strong, “and Boral likely continues to support the majority of near-term growth”.

They also said they remained focused on the company’s M&A strategy.

Macquarie increased its price target on SGH marginally from $50.35 to $50.40, compared with the current share price of $41.90.

Gas focus

Fellow broker RBC Capital Markets also recently released a report on SGH, with a price target of $47.

RBC argued that a key to the stock’s rerating would be the company’s interest in the Crux project in Western Australia, a joint venture with global giant Shell.

As RBC says in a report published this week:

We believe SGH is likely to make an announcement on Crux, a gas project that it has a 15.5% stake in (Shell owns the balance) that will begin backfilling volumes in the Prelude Floating LNG terminal, which we believe will act as a positive catalyst for the stock. We conservatively expect the project to start producing gas in late (2H28), and have taken the view that it will hit full production in FY30.

RBC estimates that Crux would generate $350 to $375 million in EBITDA to SGH each year, “yet consensus forecasts show no step-change in group earnings through the ramp period”.

SGH is valued at $16.74 billion.

The post How high does Macquarie think SGH shares will go? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.