• Why is the Nickel Industries share price leaping 6% today?

    a miner holds his thumb up as he holds a device in his other hand.

    a miner holds his thumb up as he holds a device in his other hand.The Nickel Industries Ltd (ASX: NIC) share price has started the week strongly.

    At the time of writing, the nickel producer’s shares are up over 4% to 73 cents.

    At one stage, the Nickel Industries share price was up as much as 6% to 74 cents.

    Why is the Nickel Industries share price rising?

    Investors have been bidding the Nickel Industries share price higher today after the company released its quarterly update.

    According to the release, Nickel Industries delivered a 30.2% quarter on quarter increase in nickel production to a record of 20,275 tonnes. This includes 9,994 tonnes of nickel from the Angel Nickel operation, which commenced commissioning in late July.

    Another positive was that the company recorded an average cash cost of US$13,597 per tonne, down 6.2% since the previous quarter.

    Things weren’t quite as positive for its sales and earnings. Although nickel sales volumes rose 26.7% to 20,045 tonnes, a 20% decline in the realised nickel price to US$15,950 a tonne led to sales growth of just 1.2% to US$319.2 million.

    It was even worse for its earnings despite its lower cash costs. The company revealed 46.6% decline in RKEF EBITDA to US$45.3 million. This represents EBITDA per tonne of US$2,261, which is down 57.9% from the June quarter.

    Nevertheless, the company still generated underlying cash from operations of US$54.9 million for the quarter. This boosted its cash balance to US$513.2 million at the end of September.

    The Nickel Industries share price has now trimmed its year to date decline to approximately 50% following today’s gain.

    The post Why is the Nickel Industries share price leaping 6% today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of September 1 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • The Bitcoin price may be decoupling from US stocks. Is this why?

    a close up of a woman's face looks skywards as she is showered in a sea of graphic symbols of gold and silver coins bearing the bitcoin logo.

    a close up of a woman's face looks skywards as she is showered in a sea of graphic symbols of gold and silver coins bearing the bitcoin logo.The Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price has been closely correlated with movements in US stock markets this year.

    The Nasdaq Composite (INDEXNASDAQ: .IXIC) has been a particularly reliable barometer of how BTC moves.

    Look back at the price charts for 2022 and you’ll see a 5% gain in the NASDAQ has usually been mirrored by a significantly larger gain in the Bitcoin price.

    And when the NASDAQ drops, the world’s top crypto has also tended to suffer a larger loss than the tech-heavy index.

    Yet this past week may have offered another sign that Bitcoin could be starting to decouple from this correlation.

    With some disappointing earnings results reported by the world’s top tech shares, the NASDAQ remains down 1% from Tuesday’s close, despite some strong gains to finish the week.

    The Bitcoin price, on the other hand, is up just over 2% in that time.

    Not a huge break from the correlation, mind you, but a break nonetheless.

    Why might the Bitcoin price decouple from US stocks?

    For some greater insight into what’s happening in the crypto markets, we turned to Simon Peters, market analyst at multi-asset trading platform eToro.

    Peters told The Motley Fool that despite the disappointing earnings results and outlook from some of the big tech names in the US, the Bitcoin price “has held firm”.

    Citing Glassnode data, Peters said that last week:

    BTC exchange balances continued to drain, which is generally seen as bullish with the HODLer cohort reaching all-time-high coin ownership. The proportion of wealth held in coins that moved in the last three months is now at an all-time low, and the reciprocal observation is that wealth held by coins older than three months is now at an all-time high.

    These high ownership levels signal why we may be seeing a decoupling between US equities and Bitcoin.

    At the current price, it is unlikely that entities apart from Bitcoin miners would want or need to sell Bitcoin, whereas given stock market conditions and the negative forecasts from companies reporting earnings, there is perhaps a greater inclination to sell stocks.

    The Bitcoin price is down 1% over the past 24 hours, currently trading for US$20,562 (AU$32,022).

    The post The Bitcoin price may be decoupling from US stocks. Is this why? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

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    *Returns as of September 1 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Bitcoin. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Here are the 10 most shorted ASX shares

    A business woman looks unhappy while she flies a red flag at her laptop.

    A business woman looks unhappy while she flies a red flag at her laptop.

    At the start of each week, I like to look at ASIC’s short position report to find out which shares are being targeted by short sellers.

    This is because I believe it is well worth keeping a close eye on short interest levels as high levels can sometimes be a sign that something isn’t quite right with a company.

    With that in mind, here are the 10 most shorted shares on the ASX this week according to ASIC:

    • Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) is still the most shorted share on the Australian share market after its short interest rose to 15.3%. Short sellers appear to be betting against a swift travel market recovery.
    • Betmakers Technology Group Ltd (ASX: BET) has seen its short interest ease to 14.1%. Much to the delight of short sellers, this betting technology company’s shares crashed lower following its quarterly update last week. The Betmakers share price is now down 67% year to date.
    • Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1) has seen its short interest rise to 12.2%. Short sellers have been adding to their positions after Megaport released a soft quarterly update earlier this month.
    • Block Inc (ASX: SQ2) has seen its short interest rise to 12.1%. This may be down to concerns over regulatory pressure in the BNPL market and global recession fears.
    • Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP) has seen its short interest rise to 11.1%. Fears that cost inflation could be weighing on this pizza chain operator’s performance appear to be the reason for this high level of short interest. We won’t have to wait long to find out if this is the case. Domino’s holds its AGM this week.
    • Perpetual Limited (ASX: PPT) has seen its short interest jump again to 10.9%. A number of fund managers have been under pressure this year due to tough operating conditions.
    • Lake Resources N.L. (ASX: LKE) has short interest of 8.7%, which is down week on week again. Short sellers have been targeting this lithium developer due to doubts over the DLE technology that is integral to the Kachi lithium project.
    • Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW) has returned to the top ten with short interest of 8.6%. Short sellers will be disappointed to see that this ecommerce share is shooting higher today on no news.
    • Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG) has seen its short interest rise to 8.5%. This may be due to concerns that the uncertain economic backdrop could impact consumer spending.
    • Nanosonics Ltd (ASX: NAN) has short interest of 8.4%, which is up week on week. This appears to have been driven by the uncertainty caused from this infection prevention company’s disruptive business model change in the key US market.

    The post Here are the 10 most shorted ASX shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of September 1 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Betmakers Technology Group Ltd, Block, Inc., MEGAPORT FPO, Nanosonics Limited, and Temple & Webster Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Block, Inc. and Nanosonics Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Betmakers Technology Group Ltd, Dominos Pizza Enterprises Limited, Flight Centre Travel Group Limited, MEGAPORT FPO, and Temple & Webster Group Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Is this ASX 200 share really offering a dividend yield above 30%?

    Miner holding cash which represents dividends.Miner holding cash which represents dividends.

    It’s been a good year so far for those invested in S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) coal share Coronado Global Resources Inc (ASX: CRN).

    The stock has lifted a whopping 50% since the start of 2022. Meanwhile, the company’s earnings have taken off amid soaring coal prices.

    In turn, those holding the ASX 200 share have been on the receiving end of some notable dividends. Indeed, Coronado announced another special dividend this morning.

    So, with the Coronado share price currently trading 3.36% higher than its previous close at $1.9225, does the stock offer a dividend yield of more than 30%? Keep reading to find out.

    Does this ASX 200 share really boast a 31% dividend yield?

    ASX 200 coal producer Coronado has been on a roll this year, posting yet another strong quarter this morning.

    The company brought in US$875 million of revenue for the September quarter – a 15.3% fall on that of its record June quarter. Its realised metallurgical coal price last quarter was US$253 per tonne – a 21.2% quarter-on-quarter fall.

    Over the course of 2022 so far, it’s declared US$2.85 billion of revenue – more than double what it had this time last year.

    On the back of its recent performance, the ASX 200 share announced a US 13.4 cent special dividend today.

    That’s around 21 Australian cents at today’s exchange rate. The company will announce the official currency conversion on 21 November.

    The coal miner previously declared two special dividend worth a combined US 11.9 cents (16.66 cents) in May and two ordinary dividends in February and August, worth US 9 cents (12.19 cents) and US 7.5 cents (10.86 cents) respectively.

    Assuming its latest dividend does come in at 21 Aussie cents, the five offerings total an impressive 60.71 cents.

    Considering this figure, the ASX 200 share could trade with a whopping 31.5% dividend yield.

    However, it’s worth noting that special dividends typically aren’t factored into a company’s yield. Thus, without considering the special offerings, Coronado shares currently trade with a 12% dividend yield – certainly nothing to scoff at.

    The post Is this ASX 200 share really offering a dividend yield above 30%? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of September 1 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Own CBA shares? Here’s why the bank wants to shake up the RBA board

    a board room with members sitting around a long table with one person standing and a large floor length window in the background showing a light-drenched cityscape view.

    a board room with members sitting around a long table with one person standing and a large floor length window in the background showing a light-drenched cityscape view.Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are in the green again today, after finishing in positive territory every trading day last week.

    CBA shares closed on Friday trading for $103.22 a share and in Monday morning trade, are swapping hands for $104.805 apiece, up 1.54%.

    That’s today’s price action for you.

    Now, here’s why CommBank is looking to shake up the board over at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

    Why CommBank wants to see some changes with the RBA board

    We don’t have to tell you that inflation in Australia is running hot.

    Whether you’re filling up your car, buying groceries, or planning a holiday, you’ll have noticed the bigger hit to your pocketbook.

    The latest official figures put inflation in Australia at a blistering 7.3%. And that number is expected to edge into the 8% range before beginning to pull back in 2023.

    In a bid to tame inflation, the RBA has been steadily hiking interest rates, from the historic low of 0.10% back in May to today’s 2.60%. And the central bank is widely expected to raise rates by another 0.25% or even a full 0.50% when the board meets tomorrow.

    That’s a far cry from what RBA governor Philip Lowe was telling the public last year. At the time, he offered reassurances that rates would remain at rock bottom levels into 2024.

    And that, amongst other grievances, doesn’t sit well with CBA chief economist Stephen Halmarick, who said those types of forecasts should not be made again.

    “Forward guidance should only be based on a set of pre-conditions related to meeting the inflation objective and never calendar based, either implicitly or explicitly,” he said (as quoted by The Australian Financial Review).

    In a submission to an independent review of the RBA’s board, CBA said it wanted to see a major shakeup of the board when it comes to making monthly interest rates decisions, with a greater presence of monetary policy experts joining public servants and business leaders.

    “The current structure of the RBA board is not compatible with generally accepted best practice for boards in Australia,” Halmarick said. “A widely accepted structure for an effective board is for the board to have nine members in a 3-3-3 model.”

    And the RBA board should open the door to senior executives from outside the organisation.

    “There is a need to facilitate the two-way flow of people into and out of the RBA and the private sector. This could be done at multiple levels across the RBA,” Halmarick added.

    How have CBA shares been tracking?

    CBA shares are up 3.58% year to date, a solid result when compared to the 9.6% loss posted by the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) so far in 2022.

    The post Own CBA shares? Here’s why the bank wants to shake up the RBA board appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of September 1 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Lake Resources share price climbs on quarterly operations progress

    Two smiling men in high visibility vests and yellow hardhats stand side by side with a large mound of earth and mining equipment behind them smiling as the Carnaby Resources share price rises todayTwo smiling men in high visibility vests and yellow hardhats stand side by side with a large mound of earth and mining equipment behind them smiling as the Carnaby Resources share price rises today

    The Lake Resources N.L. (ASX: LKE) share price is firing up today after the company released its quarterly report for the period ending 30 September.

    Shares in the ASX lithium explorer are currently trading 3.55% higher at $1.02 apiece at the time of writing.

    Let’s look at the company’s highlights for the quarter.

    What did Lake Resources report?

    • Net cash flow used in operating activities: $9 million
    • Net cash flow used in investing activities: $17.34 million
    • Cash and cash equivalents at end of the period: $158.87 million
    • Estimated quarters of funding available: 14.27

    Lake Resources provided an overview of its operations in the report.

    The company advised its Kachi demonstration plant installation in Argentina was complete. Commissioning to test the plant was conducted during the quarter. The plant was tested in California, and the test was reportedly successful.

    Meanwhile, drilling at Kachi continues. The company is conducting two different types of drilling to both improve its estimates on how many resources are available and to find more resources.

    At Lake Resources’ Cauchari, Olaroz, and Paso lithium brine projects, also in Argentina, the company is continuing its lithium exploration via a drilling program.

    What else happened?

    Lake Resources made two key leadership changes in the quarter. David Dickson was appointed CEO and managing director, with a mandate to “lead the company’s transition from exploration focus to
    development, construction and toward production”.

    Sean Miller also joined as the corporate development officer “to accelerate activity across Lake’s 100% owned exploration projects Cauchari, Olaroz, and Paso”.

    In other developments, Lake Resources signed an offtake agreement with WMC Energy and SK for up to 50,000 tonnes per annum of lithium carbonate.

    The company also advised Definitive Feasibility Studies (DFS) and Environmental Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) studies were continuing. The demonstration plant validation is required before the DFS can be completed.

    Lake Resources share price snapshot

    The Lake Resources share price has slipped into the green year-to-date, up 0.99%, and is trading 8.51% higher over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 7.94% and 6.42% over the respective periods.

    The company’s market capitalisation is around $1.42 billion.

    The post Lake Resources share price climbs on quarterly operations progress appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

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    *Returns as of September 1 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Matthew Farley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • How has the Woolworths share price fared in October?

    Woman thinking in a supermarket.Woman thinking in a supermarket.

    The Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) share price has descended slightly lower during the month of October.

    Woolworths shares have shed 2.51% since market close on 30 September and are currently trading at $33.095 on the last day of October. At the time of writing, Woolworths shares are up around 1%.

    Let’s take a look at how October played out for the Woolworths share price

    How did the month play out?

    Woolworths’ major competitor on the ASX has had a relatively flat month. Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares have fallen 0.3% since market close on 30 September. The S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index (ASX: XSJ) has also dropped 0.09% over the same time frame.

    Woolworths shares dropped 3.15% on October 26. On this day, Woolworths highlighted challenges that may lay ahead for the company. Woolworths CEO Brad Banducci said:

    As we move further into F23, we expect the operating environment to remain challenging but we are extremely focused on returning to consistently good customer and team experiences.

    We are very conscious of the challenges of inflation and cost-of-living pressures for our customers.

    Another notable event in October was news of a data breach impacting online retailer MyDeal. Woolworths acquired MyDeal in September. Data including names, email addresses, phone numbers, and dates of birth of around 2.2 million customers were impacted.

    However, no payment data, driver licence details, or passport numbers were affected. MyDeal also has a completely separate platform to other businesses within Woolworths.

    Inflation worries and interest rate rises have also weighed on investors’ minds during October.

    Looking ahead, analysts at Wilsons have recently named Woolworths as one the 22 high-yield dividend shares it recommends.

    Goldman Sachs analysts also placed a buy rating on the Woolworths share price in October with a $42.70 price target. Goldman is predicting Woolworths to pay fully franked dividends of $1.07 per share in FY 2023 and $1.16 in FY 2024.

    Share price snapshot

    The Woolworths share price has descended 13% in the past 12 months, losing that amount during the year to date.

    For perspective, the S&P/ASX 200 (ASX: XJO) has lost about 9% in the past year.

    Woolworths has a market capitalisation of more than $40 billion based on the current share price.

    The post How has the Woolworths share price fared in October? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* Scott just revealed what he believes could be the “five best ASX stocks” for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now

    See The 5 Stocks
    *Returns as of September 1 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Monica O’Shea has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended COLESGROUP DEF SET. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Pushpay share price rips 9% ahead on takeover agreement

    Two hands being shaken symbolising a deal.

    Two hands being shaken symbolising a deal.The Pushpay Holdings Ltd (ASX: PPH) share price has returned from its trading halt with a bang.

    In morning trade, the donation technology company’s shares are up 9% to $1.15.

    Why is the Pushpay share price storming higher?

    The catalyst for the rise in the Pushpay share price on Monday has been news that the company has accepted a takeover offer from the Sixth Street and BGH Capital Consortium.

    Sixth Street is a global investment firm and BGH Capital is an Australia and New Zealand-focused private equity firm. Together, the two parties currently hold, in aggregate, 20.34% of the shares in Pushpay.

    According to the release, Pushpay has entered into a scheme implementation agreement under which the consortium will acquire all of Pushpay’s shares at a price of NZ$1.34 (A$1.21) per share in cash via a scheme of arrangement. This represents a 14.7% premium to the Pushpay share price prior to its trading halt.

    Why did Pushpay accept this offer?

    The release notes that following a comprehensive process and a thorough consideration of strategic options, the Pushpay board believes the offer provides “compelling value for shareholders.”

    It highlights that while it is only a 14.7% premium to the last close price, it is a 30.1% premium to undisturbed share price on 22 April before takeover offers were first received. In addition, since then, the ASX All Technology index has declined 12.1%.

    It implies an equity value of US$898 million and an acquisition multiple of 16x the midpoint of its revised EBITDAF guidance of US$56 million for FY 2023.

    Pushpay’s Chair, Graham Shaw, commented:

    In considering the options, including the possibility of continuing to implement the Company’s growth strategy as a publicly listed company, the Board adopted a long-term view of the risks and rewards of various alternatives.

    After a thorough assessment, the Board believes that the Sixth Street / BGH Consortium Scheme proposal currently represents the most compelling value for shareholders. Although the Board remains confident in the future of Pushpay, the transaction will accelerate a capital return to shareholders and mitigates the risks that would otherwise be involved in delivering the opportunities from executing Pushpay’s strategic plan over time. Accordingly, the Board is pleased to unanimously recommend the transaction to shareholders.

    The post Pushpay share price rips 9% ahead on takeover agreement appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended PUSHPAY FPO NZX. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended PUSHPAY FPO NZX. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why the Whitehaven Coal share price could outperform this government forecast

    A coal miner wearing a red hard hat holds a piece of coal up and gives the thumbs up sign in his other handA coal miner wearing a red hard hat holds a piece of coal up and gives the thumbs up sign in his other hand

    The Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) share price has been on fire this year.

    Despite losing more than 10% last week, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) coal stock is up an astounding 241% in 2022 on the back of soaring coal prices.

    This year has also seen Whitehaven resume its dividend payments for the first time in two years. At the current share price, Whitehaven Coal trades on a trailing dividend yield of 5.1%.

    But both the share price and its future dividend payouts could come under pressure if coal prices fall as low and as rapidly as was laid out in the federal budget estimates last week.

    Why did coal prices rocket this year?

    Energy prices were already trending higher heading into 2022 as the world reopened from the lengthy pandemic shutdowns.

    Then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy prices soaring as the West moved to ban Russian oil, gas and coal exports, among other sanctions.

    Thermal coal (primarily used to generate electricity) saw prices rocket even faster than metallurgical coal (primarily used for steel making).

    Whitehaven mines both varieties, earning more than half its revenue from thermal coal.

    In early March, Newcastle coal (thermal) was trading for US$440 per tonne, a record high. At the time, the Whitehaven Coal share price was ‘only’ up 50% for the calendar year.

    As of Friday’s close, thermal coal was trading for US$385 per tonne.

    But if last week’s federal budget forecast is correct, coal prices are likely to head in the other direction heading into 2023.

    Why the Whitehaven Coal share price could outperform forecast

    The federal budget forecasts that coking coal prices will slide to $US130 per tonne (Free on Board (FOB) Australia) by Q1 2023. Meanwhile, thermal coal prices are forecast to fall to $US60 per tonne (FOB Australia) by the end of Q1 2023.

    That kind of retrace would clearly throw up some headwinds for the Whitehaven Coal share price.

    But the coal mining giant might perform far better than the budget’s coal price forecasts suggest.

    Last week Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) published its Economic Insights report, scrutinising the budget forecasts.

    When it came to the outlook for coal prices, CBA’s analysts were far more bullish.

    On metallurgical, or coking coal, the bank said:

    The Budget’s coking coal price view is markedly lower than our view from 2022/23 to 2025/26… We think the disruption to Russian coking coal exports (~10% of the seaborne market) will take years to replace fully, helping keep a premium entrenched in coking coal prices over the Budget’s outlook period.

    CBA also believes thermal coal prices will hold up better and longer than the budget has estimated. According to the report:

    Like coking coal, we see the disruption to Russian thermal coal exports (~15% of the seaborne market) to be more long-lasting than the Budget over the outlook period. Replacing Russian thermal coal exports in the seaborne market will be challenging given the underinvestment in the sector over the last few years.

    If CBA’s analysts have got this right, the Whitehaven Coal share price should fare considerably better than under the budget’s outlook.

    The post Why the Whitehaven Coal share price could outperform this government forecast appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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  • 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

    asx growth shares for october represented by miniature jack o lantern pumpkins

    asx growth shares for october represented by miniature jack o lantern pumpkins

    On Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finished the week deep in the red. The benchmark index fell 0.9% to 6,785.7 points.

    Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

    ASX 200 expected to jump

    It may be Halloween, but there’s nothing scary about the Australian share market’s expected performance today. The benchmark index looks set to start the week very strongly after a great session on Wall Street on Friday night. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 92 points or 1.35% higher this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones was up 2.6%, the S&P 500 rose 2.45%, and the NASDAQ stormed 2.9% higher. This was driven by a softer inflation reading in the US.

    Oil prices fall

    Energy shares such as Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a subdued start to the week after oil dropped on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was down 1.3% to US$87.90 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price fell 1.2% to US$95.77 a barrel. Concerns over COVID restrictions in Chinese were to blame for this decline.

    IGO update

    The IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) share price will be one to watch on Monday when the battery materials miner releases its quarterly update. Investors will no doubt be keen to see how the company’s lithium operations are faring. In addition, the market will be looking to see if IGO is on track to achieve its production and cost guidance for FY 2023. Management is aiming for full year Greenbushes lithium production of 1,350kt-1,450kt with costs of A$225 to A$275 a tonne.

    Macquarie rated as a buy

    The Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) share price is good value according to analysts at Morgans. This morning the broker retained its add rating with a slightly trimmed price target of $214.30. The broker commented: “MQG is a quality franchise, well exposed to structural growth areas, and the company is managing a more difficult FY23 environment well.”

    Gold price falls

    Gold miners including Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a poor start to the week after the gold price fell on Friday. According to CNBC, the spot gold price was down 1.2% to US$1,644.8 an ounce during the session. Rising treasury yields weighed on the precious metal.

    The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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