The Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) share price is in the green today. Its rise came as data outlining a record trade surplus of nearly $16 billion – driven by coal and iron ore – hit headlines.

The Fortescue share price is trading 3.58% higher at $17.07 at the time of writing.

In comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is currently up 0.65% while the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) has gained 2.16%.

Let’s take a closer look at today’s news from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Fortescue share price lifts on Thursday

The Fortescue share price lifted today after the ABS released data outlining a notable jump in metal ores and minerals exports in May.

Approximately $14.5 million worth of metal ores and minerals were exported from Australia in May – a 2.8% month-on-month increase.

That helped boost Australia’s total trade surplus to $15.965 billion in May – more than 20% higher than that of April. In that time, exports rose 9.5% while imports lifted close to 6%.

However, it was coal that was the major driver of the country’s record trade surplus. The export value of the black rock saw a 20% month-on-month increase – coming in at more than $14.6 million in May.

Today’s Fortescue share price’s gain also follows a poor session for its major commodity’s value. The iron ore futures price fell 1% overnight to reach US$112.33 a tonne.

And the future could bring more downfalls for the price of iron ore. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) senior economist Belinda Allen was quoted by the Australian Financial Review as saying:

We expect China to reduce steel output later this year, similar to what occurred in 2021. As a result, we expect further falls in the price of iron ore from here.

Other ASX 200 iron ore giants are also in the green on Thursday. The share prices of BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) are trading 2.78% and 3.93% higher respectively.

The post Fortescue share price lifts with Australia’s record high trade surplus appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Is now the time to be buying beaten down ASX 200 mining shares?
• 5 ASX dividend shares with the highest yields in FY22
• These ASX 200 mining shares are bouncing back on Thursday
• ASX hydrogen shares announced some big news last month, so why did so many end June in the red?
• ASX lithium stocks avoid share price shock amid commodities lashing

Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Tabcorp Holdings Limited (ASX: TAH) has outlined how it plans to compete with some of its online rivals.

Tabcorp shares are currently jumping 0.95% and are trading at $1.06. For perspective, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 0.41% today.

Let’s take a look at what Tabcorp is planning.

Tabcorp plans

Tabcorp is planning to create a new app in time for the Spring Racing season to compete with some competitors, according to the Financial Review.

The company’s CEO Adam Rytenskild reportedly wants to compete with online gambling competitors including Sportsbet and Ladbrokes. In comments cited by the publication, he said:

There’s still too many people on blue and red apps … sitting in pubs

Rytenskild was appointed as the managing director and CEO from 1 June 2022 on a fixed salary including super of $1.5 million.

This followed the company offloading Lottery Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLC). Rytenskild has more than 20 years of experience in the betting entertainment industry.

In a recent investor day presentation, Tabcorp said 65% of turnover is digital. However, the company has about 25% of the digital market share. The company has 641,000 active users and is found in more than 4,000 venues in Australia.

Of the company’s total bettors, 60% bet digitally as well as in venues known as “omni-channel bettors”.

Tabcorp said these customers are approximately “2 times more valuable than digital only customers, adding:

They engage more frequently and are less subject to churn.

As my Foolish colleague Sebastian reported today, Tabcorp was one of the highest yielding ASX dividend shares in the 2022 financial year.

The company provided a fully franked dividend of 13.5 cents per share during the financial year.

Tabcorp share price snapshot

Tabcorp shares have gained 14% in the past year, while it is up nearly 11% year to date.

In contrast, the ASX 200 has shed nearly 10% in a year.

The company’s share price has jumped about 32% in the past five years.

The post Own Tabcorp shares? Here’s the company’s plan to step up against the competition appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 5 ASX dividend shares with the highest yields in FY22
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• These were the best performing ASX 200 shares in June
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• Are potential suitors getting ready to take another punt on the Tabcorp share price?

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The Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) price went on quite a ride during the 2022 financial year ending 30 June.

It brings to mind Charles Dickins’ first line (or the first part of that first line) in A Tale of Two Cities. Namely, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…”

By the time the smoke cleared, the Ethereum price was down 55% for the 12-month period, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

How did it get there?

First, the best of times.

Ethereum price hit all-time highs in FY22

Ethereum, the world’s number two token by market cap, kicked off FY22 trading for US$2,274 after falling sharply from its May 2021 peaks.

From there the cryptocurrency went charging higher for the next three and a half months, though not in any kind of straight line, mind you. By 16 November the Ethereum price had reached a new record high of US$4,892, which remains the virtual high water mark today.

It was a similar story across most risk assets, including Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), which hit its own record highs on 10 November.

Not coincidentally, mid-November also saw the tech-heavy NASDAQ reach all-time highs.

Which brings us around to the worst of times.

Risk assets hammered amid rising interest rate expectations

By mid-November the first signs of persistent and unexpectedly high inflation figures began to seep through. And investors began lightening their holdings of risk assets in anticipation of some sharp interest rate hikes to come.

This saw the NASDAQ tumble 31% from its November peak through to 30 June 2022.

The more volatile Ethereum price fell more than twice that hard, ending the financial year trading for US$1,018, down 79% from its 16 November levels.

The falls came despite progress being made transitioning the Ethereum blockchain from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake.

The switchover, years in the planning and now dubbed ‘the merge’ will increase the speed and lower transaction costs on the blockchain. Importantly, it will also greatly reduce the crypto’s carbon footprint as the proof-of-stake protocol requires far fewer energy hungry computers.

Supporters hope the merge will eventually help the Ethereum price outperform once more.

The post Why FY22 was the best and worst of years for the Ethereum price appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• The Ethereum price collapsed 47% in June. Here’s why
• How did the price of crypto assets perform in June?
• Ethereum price falls after hackers begin laundering $100 million bridge exploit
• What one tech guru thinks of the current crypto market
• Why Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin are down today

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS) share price was a relatively positive performer during the last financial year.

The telco giant’s shares started the financial year at $3.76 and eventually closed the period 2.4% higher at $3.85.

As a comparison, the ASX 200 index lost 10% of its value during the 12 months.

Why did the Telstra share price outperform the market in FY22?

There were a number of catalysts for the Telstra share price outperformance.

This includes the telco sector’s defensive qualities, which have helped Telstra’s shares avoid the worst of the market volatility.

In addition, the company’s improving performance, its return to underlying growth, and the announcement of its new T25 strategy have given its shares a major boost.

In respect to the latter, the T25 strategy will be replacing the highly successful T22 strategy. But unlike the T22 strategy, which was based on transforming the company, T25 will be about driving growth.

Telstra’s CEO, Andy Penn, explained:

T25 marks our transition from transformation to growth, from a strategy we had to do, to a strategy we want to do to focus on growth. It is a strategy that builds on the strong foundations we have built over the last three years and remains focussed on what matters most – our customers, our people, our shareholders and on supporting the creation of a vibrant digital economy for Australia.

Through the strategy, Telstra is aiming to deliver sustained growth and value by targeting mid-single digit underlying EBITDA and high-teens underlying earnings per share (EPS) compound annual growth rates between FY 2021 and FY 2025.

Can the Telstra share price keep rising?

The good news is that Morgans appears to believe the Telstra share price outperformance can continue.

Its analysts currently have an add rating and $4.56 price target on the company’s shares. This implies potential upside of 17% for investors over the next 12 months.

The post Why did the Telstra share price beat the market in FY22? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Telstra share price rises as Optus folds to inflation
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• The Telstra share price outperformed the ASX 200 in June
• Could July be a good month for the Telstra share price?
• Telstra share price slides as Optus exec ramps up calls for TPG deal to be canned

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Corporation Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has had a bouncy, yet positive, day of trading so far during this Thursday’s session. At the time of writing, the ASX 200 has risen a healthy 0.42% to just over 6,620 points after nearly dropping back into the red just before lunchtime.

But rather than trying to figure all of that out, let’s instead take a deeper dive into the shares that are currently topping the ASX 200’s share volume charts today, according to investing.com.

The 3 most traded ASX 200 shares by volume this Thursday

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

ASX 200 buy now, pay later (BNPL) share Zip is our first company to take a look at today. So far this Thursday, a hefty 9.28 million Zip shares have been bought. That’s despite no news out of Zip so far during this trading session.

However, as we covered this morning, that hasn’t stopped the Zip share price from taking a hammering today. The BNPL share is presently down a nasty 7.82% at 53 cents a share. This may have been caused by the bearish note out of broker UBS this morning, rating Zip shares as a “sell”. 

Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)

Santos is our next cab off the rank today. This ASX 200 oil share has had a sizeable 11.67 million shares swap hands as it currently stands. There hasn’t been any major news or announcements out of this energy share. 

So we can probably blame this high volume on the weighty sell-off we’ve seen with Santos today. The company is now down by 1.78% at $6.90 a share. That puts the company’s losses over the past trading week at more than 5.8%. 

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32)

Finally today, we have ASX 200 miner South32 as our most traded share. This Thursday has seen a notable 16.68 million South32 shares trade on the share market thus far. Fortunately for investors, South32 is having the opposite problem to Santos. 

Its shares are on fire today, presently up a pleasing 4.4% to $3.86 each. There’s been no news out of the miner, but most miners are doing well on the market today amid a recovery in commodity prices overnight.     

The post Here are the 3 most heavily traded ASX 200 shares on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Is now the time to be buying beaten down ASX 200 mining shares?
• Why Block, Bubs, Infomedia, and Zip shares are dropping
• These ASX 200 mining shares are bouncing back on Thursday
• Zip share price cops 6% slashing as analyst fears grow
• ASX 200 midday update: Chalice Mining jumps, Zip sinks on bearish broker note

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) rose by 25.5% over the 2022 financial year. That’s an impressive outperformance on the benchmark S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO), which lost 11% in value over the same period.

The commodities boom helped ASX energy shares in FY22. The price of crude oil rose by about 40% and the price of natural gas increased by about 55%.

Plus, geopolitical unrest over the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and lockdowns in China, caused many supply chain issues which boosted the fortunes of many ASX energy shares.

But not every share had a great time in FY22.

Here are the five worst-performing ASX energy shares for FY22, according to Capital IQ figures.

• Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co Ltd (ASX: SOL) down 29.7%
• Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) down 28.5%
• Carnarvon Energy Ltd (ASX: CVN) down 26.4%
• Energy Resources of Australia Limited (ASX: ERA) down 25.5%
• Strike Energy Ltd (ASX: STX) down 22.7%.

Why these ASX energy shares tanked

Capital IQ categorises investment house Soul Patts as an ASX energy share because it owns 39.9% of New Hope Corporation Limited (ASX: NHC), which is a diversified energy company in southeast Queensland.

As my fellow Fool Tristan reported this week, Soul Patts has fallen out of favour with ASX investors. While New Hope had a great year — its share price doubled in FY22 — other ASX shares that Soul Patts owns took a dive. Example: Brickworks Limited (ASX: BKW) — its share price dropped 26%.

The conglomerate Wesfarmers is also categorised as an ASX energy share because of its chemicals, energy, and fertilisers division. One of its more recognisable brands is gas producer and retailer Kleenheat.

Tristan reported on the near 30% drop in the Wesfarmers share price in FY22 this week, too.

Wesfarmers reported in its half-year FY22 results that net profit after tax (NPAT) had fallen 14.2% to $1.2 billion. This was largely due to store closures and trading restrictions during COVID-19.

What about Carnarvon and Energy Resources?

Carnarvon Energy is an oil and gas explorer. It’s not yet generating revenue, and this combined with the rising interest rate environment has probably put some investors off.

In January, Carnarvon announced that its drilling at the Buffalo-10 well found the oil column to be residual and uncommercial. In April, the company announced that drilling at the Apus-1 well did not yield a commercial hydrocarbon pool.

Energy Resources of Australia is one of the nation’s largest uranium oxide producers. It operated the Ranger mine, Australia’s longest continually operating uranium mine, in the Northern Territory.

The Energy Resources share price has been in a steady decline since September 2021. That’s also when the company announced cost and schedule overruns with its Ranger Project rehabilitation program.

The program is being undertaken as part of the mine’s closure. In October, the company told the ASX the overruns would be “material” but they weren’t yet ready to reveal numbers.

The following month, the company’s CEO and managing director Paul Arnold resigned to take a job at Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO). He was formally replaced in February 2022 by Brad Welsh.

In February, the company said the rehabilitation was going to cost between $1.6 billion and $2.2 billion — up from the initial estimate in 2019 of $973 million.

It also said the estimated completion date could be as late as the fourth quarter of 2028.

That same month, Energy Resources reported its full-year results for FY21. It recorded a net loss after tax of $650 million for 2021 compared to a net profit after tax of $11 million in 2020. A big part of this was the increasing costs of the rehabilitation program.

And the Strike out?

The Strike Energy share price experienced a massive 56% decline in value between August and December 2021. It recovered in 2022 but remained in the red by more than 22% at the end of FY22.

The decline in August began after the company announced problems at its West Erregulla 5 (WE5) well.

In October, Strike disappointed the market with its maiden Perth Basin Gas Reserve, which revealed gross gas reserves “significantly below” the company’s guidance, as my fellow Fool James reported.

Although Strike released a number of positive announcements, it appears investors lost interest in the ASX energy share in the first half of FY22 before reengaging in the second half.

The post 5 worst ASX energy shares of FY22 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Here’s why Brickworks might be one of the ASX’s best dividend shares
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• 2 appealing ASX All Ords growth shares getting discounted today
• These ASX 200 mining shares are bouncing back on Thursday
• Analysts name 2 excellent ASX dividend shares for income investors to buy

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited and Wesfarmers Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The DGL Group Ltd (ASX: DGL) share price is heading south today.

This comes despite the chemical company announcing it has expanded its manufacturing capabilities following the recent acquisition.

At the time of writing, DGL shares are down 1.15% to $2.59 apiece.

It’s worth noting that its shares have lost more than 8% in the last two days.

DGL strengthens service offering to customers

According to its release, DGL advised it has strategically acquired silicone-based manufacturer, Flexichem Australia for $6.2 million.

Based in the Adelaide, Flexichem is a family-owned business specialising in the development and manufacturing of silicone and non-silicone chemicals. These are used in a number of diverse industries such as food processing, printing, automotive, agrochemical, mining and personal care.

The agreed purchase price represents a valuation of 4.5 times the last twelve months of Flexichem’s normalised EBITDA.

The deal is expected to be funded by $4.65 million in cash and $1.55 million in DGL shares.

DGL stated that Flexichem will vertically integrate into DGL’s manufacturing operations and strengthen service to its customer base.

It is estimated the acquisition will add 1,200 of additional chemical manufacturing capacity.

DGL founder and CEO, Simon Henry commented:

The acquisition of Flexichem expands our manufacturing capabilities into South Australia, adds talent and IP on silicone-based manufacturing into DGL, and also opens up new export markets.

While the release is positive in nature, the DGL share price is tracking the S&P/ASX 200 Industrials (ASX: XNJ) sector’s fall.

The index is down 1.09% to 6,252.6 points today after chopping and changing the past few days.

DGL share price summary

It’s been an impressive time since DGL debuted on the ASX in late May with a $1 price tag.

The company has made strong progress over the 14 months which has been reflected in the DGL share price.

When looking from this time last year, its shares are up by more than 80%.

On valuation grounds, DGL presides a market capitalisation of roughly $770.57 million.

The post DGL share price slips on strategic $6.2 million acquisition appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 5 worst ASX energy shares of FY22
• Why did the Immutep share price plummet 31% last month?
• Here’s why Brickworks might be one of the ASX’s best dividend shares
• Is now the time to be buying beaten down ASX 200 mining shares?
• Why Block, Bubs, Infomedia, and Zip shares are dropping

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DGL Group Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended DGL Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Immutep Ltd (ASX: IMM) share price plunged lower in June despite the company announcing seemingly good news to the market.

As of the final close of last month, the Immutep share price was 29 cents, 30.95% lower than it was at the end of May.

For context, the broader market also suffered last month. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) fell 8.9% while the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) slumped 9.5%.

Let’s take a closer look at what went on with the All Ords biotechnology stock in June.

What weighed on the Immutep share price last month?

The Immutep share price struggled through June as the S&P/ASX Health Care Index (ASX: XHJ) outperformed the broader market.

The healthcare sector slumped just 3.11% last month – leaving it around 5.8% better off than the ASX 200.

Sadly, the approximately $268.5 million (according to the ASX) biotech company suffered a worse fate than many of its peers.

That’s despite it releasing exciting news of its lead product candidate, eftilagimod alpha (known as efti).

The company announced that part A of the phase II TACTI-002 trial, evaluating efti in combination with MSD’s pembrolizumab in 114 patients, met its primary objective, showing favourable anti-tumour activity.

“For Immutep, these highly favourable results are of strategic importance,” the company’s CEO Marc Voigt said. “They support late-stage development for an attractive and very large addressable market.”

Unfortunately, the market didn’t respond quite so positively. It bid the Immutep share price 5.8% lower on the back of the news.

But the Immutep share price is no stranger to the red. It’s currently trading 55% lower than its 52-week high, reached in November 2021.

It’s also 38% lower than it was at the start of 2022 and is trading for 41% less than it was this time last year.

The post Why did the Immutep share price plummet 31% last month? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Here’s how ASX healthcare shares performed in FY22
• Here’s how ASX 200 healthcare shares performed in June
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• What’s driving the Immutep share price in June?

Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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On the surface, the Brickworks Limited (ASX: BKW) share price doesn’t look like a truly extraordinary ASX dividend share. Sure, Brickworks shares have a trailing, fully franked dividend yield of 3.28% on offer right now.

That’s not a bad yield at all when it comes to ASX dividend shares. But it also doesn’t stand out too much either. Especially not against some of the ASX’s famous dividend payers. Take Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC). Westpac currently has a fully franked dividend yield of 6.1% on the table.

And nether Brickworks nor Westpac can currently shine a light on the dividend yield of BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), which is currently over 12%.

But when it comes to dividend shares, size alone doesn’t always matter. Brickworks’ dividend prowess doesn’t come from its raw yield. It comes from the company’s almost unbeatable dividend track record.

Brickworks has maintained or increased its annual dividend payments every year since 1976. Only Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co Ltd (ASX: SOL) can come even close to rivalling this kind of dividend royalty on the ASX boards.

This streak is not slowing down either. Brickworks delivered a total of 62 cents per share in dividends over FY 2022. That was a 3.33% increase over the 60 cents per share investors received over FY2021.

Brickworks’ last interim dividend (which investors received on 3 May 2022) of 22 cents per share was a 4.76% rise over the previous year’s payment.

Why Brickworks could be one of the ASX’s best dividend shares

Compare this with Westpac and BHP. Sure, BHP’s trailing dividend yield is monstrous at over 12%. But BHP can only fund huge dividend increases when the price of iron ore is historically high. That’s why its dividend history looks more like a sine wave than a staircase.

It’s a similar story with Westpac. Although this ASX bank has a large dividend on the table right now as well, Westpac is also a highly cyclical business — one whose dividends tend to rise and fall on the strength of the economy.

The $1.21 in dividends per share that Westpac paid out over FY 2022 is still a long way from the $1.88 in dividends per share the bank forked out back in 2018.

In contrast to these two ASX blue chips, Brickworks has been a beacon of stability. Its diversified earnings base includes its core construction materials business. But it also includes significant property assets, as well as a large stake in none other than Washington H Soul Pattinson shares.

Brickworks clearly manages the earnings of these three diversified facets of its business to deliver smooth dividend increases over time.

That is why I believe Brickworks might be one of the best ASX dividend shares on the ASX 200 today.

The post Here’s why Brickworks might be one of the ASX’s best dividend shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Here are the top 10 ASX shares today
• Is the Brickworks dividend yield of almost 5% too good to ignore?
• Building up income: 2 ASX dividend shares I believe are buys
• Is it time to go bargain hunting for ASX shares?
• What is the current dividend yield on Brickworks shares?

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Brickworks and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Brickworks and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Westpac Banking Corporation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The sell-off in ASX 200 mining shares has been brutal. But it’s prompting some to wonder if the sector has become too cheap to ignore.

After all, our biggest miners have shed around 20% or more over the last month alone on fears of a global recession.

This includes the BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price, Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) share price and the Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) share price.

ASX 200 mining shares on a downgrade cycle

The price of iron ore is diving along with base metals as investors bet that slowing growth will dent demand for commodities.

As a result, analysts have been lowering their commodity price forecasts and trimming their earnings estimates for ASX 200 mining shares.

But even after the severe falls in the sector, UBS is warning that these shares are not yet cheap enough, although it sees value in select cases.

The broker said:

While stocks are cheaper, we are not convinced they present enough value yet to encourage sector-wide buying.

For instance, all prices sit above/in line with UBS mid-cycle/long-term, as well as marginal cost, and not below or within cost curves.

The upcoming quarterly production reports could harbour more bad news too. Rising costs, lower commodity prices and production issues may see ASX 200 mining shares downgrade their guidance for FY22 and FY23.

This is why UBS has a “neutral” recommendation on the three major iron ore producers, although it sees buying opportunities among ASX gold shares.

UBS puts these ASX 200 mining shares on the buy list

This is because the share prices of many of our gold producers have fallen harder than the Australian dollar gold price.

The names that UBS is urging investors to buy now include Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) and Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN).

Another group of ASX 200 miners that the broker likes are lithium producers. While they haven’t been immune from the recent sell-off, UBS noted that record-high lithium spot prices will drive exceptional cash flows.

This in turn will fund their transformational growth despite UBS’s forecast that lithium will fall by up to two-thirds by end of calendar 2023.

UBS has buys on the IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) share price, Allkem Ltd (ASX: AKE) share price and Mineral Resources Limited (ASX: MIN) share price.

Where else to dig for value

But UBS’s general caution towards our big miners isn’t necessarily shared by Macquarie.

The broker is also wary of falling commodity prices, and hence its below consensus forecasts for the sector.

But Macquarie thinks many of our big ASX 200 miners are well placed to weather the storm. It explained: “The large-cap miners are generating solid free cash flow on our base case forecasts for FY22. The yields for FY23 are also resilient despite the recent fall in iron ore prices.”

Its top picks for the sector are BHP and the South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) share price. It also has a buy on Rio Tinto but rates Fortescue as “neutral”.

The post Is now the time to be buying beaten down ASX 200 mining shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• Losing their shine: 3 ASX 200 gold shares hitting new 52-week lows today
• 5 ASX dividend shares with the highest yields in FY22
• These ASX 200 mining shares are bouncing back on Thursday
• Can ASX lithium shares recharge in FY23?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau has positions in Allkem Limited, BHP Billiton Limited, Fortescue Metals Group Limited, Independence Group NL, Macquarie Group Limited, Rio Tinto Ltd., and South32 Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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