S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) gold stock Southern Cross Gold Consolidated (ASX: SX2) is sliding today.

Southern Cross Gold shares closed yesterday trading for $8.69. In early morning trade on Wednesday, shares are changing hands for $8.51 apiece, down 2.1%.

For some context, the ASX 300 is down 0.3% at this same time.

If you’re unfamiliar with the miner, it’s a relative newcomer to the ASX in its current expanded structure. The new company was formed on 15 January 2025 following the merger of Canadian-listed Mawson Gold and ASX-listed Southern Cross Gold Ltd.

Southern Cross Gold Consolidated then started trading on the ASX on 17 January.

With the gold price then surging to new record highs and the miner achieving its own operational successes, shares in the ASX 300 gold stock have leapt 124% since 17 January.

And investors who bought the miner at the 28 February close will be sitting on gains of 149.6%.

Here’s what’s happening today.

ASX 300 gold stock hits high-grade intersections

Southern Cross Gold shares are slipping despite the miner reporting on the latest promising exploration results at its 100%-owned Sunday Creek Gold-Antimony Project, located in Victoria.

The results come from 12 drill holes.

The ASX 300 gold stock highlighted drillhole SDDSC192, which it said is the deepest east west oriented hole drilled into the Apollo prospect to date. That hole returned a top result of 3.6 metres at 14.7 grams of gold equivalent per tonne from 708.6 metres down.

The miner said that these high-grade results confirm the system continues to deliver exceptional gold values in the deepest holes into the system.

What did management say?

Commenting on the results that have yet to lift the ASX 300 gold stock today, Southern Cross CEO Michael Hudson said, “SDDSC192 is our deepest east-west hole into Apollo and delivered 3.6 m @ 14.7 g/t AuEq, including a high-grade hit of 0.21 m @ 236 g/t Au, proving the system remains robust and open at depth.”

Hudson added:

Stepping down 80 metres at Apollo Deeps, we intersected 11 vein sets across Apollo East and Apollo Deeps, demonstrating exceptional continuity of this large-scale, high-grade gold antimony system. We’ve also uncovered a new mineralised zone between the Gladys and Golden Orb Faults that returned 0.3 m @ 45.9 g/t AuEq, opening up 70 metres of untested ground to the south.

Individual samples returned exceptional antimony [Sb] grades of 25.1% and 17.4% Sb alongside high-grade gold values, reinforcing Sunday Creek’s significance as a critical antimony project. Apollo continues to grow in every direction we drill, and with mineralisation open at depth and along strike, we’re only starting to see system’s potential to the east.

The post Up 150% since February, ASX 300 gold stock reports ‘robust’ high-grade results appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Growthpoint Properties Australia declares 9.2c interim distribution
• Guess which ASX 200 stock is crashing 20% today
• Wilsons Advisory names two quality cyclicals with good offshore earnings
• Why are Treasury Wine shares crashing 17% today?
• GrainCorp sells GrainsConnect Canada and updates on FY26 crop volumes

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) shares are having a day to forget on Wednesday.

In morning trade, the ASX 200 stock crashed as much as 20% to $6.70.

The grain exporter’s shares have since recovered a touch but remain down 12% at the time of writing.

Why is this ASX 200 stock crashing?

Investors have been hitting the sell button today after it announced the sale of a non-core asset and released a weaker than expected trading update.

According to the release, GrainCorp has agreed to sell GrainsConnect Canada to Parrish & Heimbecker.

The release notes that the decision to sell the Canadian grain handling joint venture followed a strategic review triggered by the challenging financial performance at the business.

GrainCorp and its joint venture partner assessed recent results, global grain and oilseed market conditions, and structural changes in the Canadian market before determining that a sale was the most value-accretive option available

The transaction values GrainsConnect at C$150 million on a cash-free, debt-free basis, with an additional payment to be made for net working capital at completion.

GrainCorp expects to recognise a loss on sale of approximately $5 million to $10 million, though it noted that the transaction does not affect its through-the-cycle EBITDA target of $320 million

Importantly, GrainCorp will retain its Canadian marketing offices in Winnipeg, which will continue to support customers and provide market intelligence to the broader group. Completion of the sale is expected in the first half of 2026

The ASX 200 stock’s managing director and CEO, Robert Spurway, commented:

This transaction reflects GrainCorp’s ongoing commitment to portfolio optimisation and our readiness to rationalise assets where necessary to improve returns. Divestment of GrainsConnect allows GrainCorp to focus on alternative value-creating opportunities that are in the best interests of our shareholders

Softer outlook

Alongside the divestment, GrainCorp provided a trading update on the 2025–26 east coast Australian winter harvest, which appears to have weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

The company said harvest activity is largely complete in Queensland and northern New South Wales, but ongoing weather interruptions continue to affect southern New South Wales and Victoria. As a result, GrainCorp expects lower receival volumes year on year

Preliminary estimates suggest total FY 2026 receivals of 11 to 12 million tonnes, down from 13.3 million tonnes in FY 2025. GrainCorp also highlighted that prevailing commodity prices have reduced grain coming to market and, when combined with near-record global grain and oilseed production, are placing continued pressure on margins for grain handlers

An update on its earnings guidance will be provided at its annual general meeting in February.

The post Guess which ASX 200 stock is crashing 20% today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Macquarie names 3 top dividend-paying ASX 200 shares to buy today
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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The sharp about-face with regard to Australian interest rates means a key tailwind for domestic cyclical stocks has been removed, according to the analysts at Wilsons Advisory.

With that in mind, they’ve examined which stocks have healthy offshore earnings and identified two that they see as providing good value at the moment.

In terms of Australian stocks, the Wilsons team notes that companies in the retail, media, consumer services, building materials, and capital goods sectors tend to underperform in the lead-up to interest rate rises, which some experts suggest may occur as soon as February.

The Wilsons team go on to say:

As such, we recommend steering clear of domestic cyclicals at this juncture. In this environment, our preference within the industrial (non-resources) cyclicals category is towards offshore earners – particularly companies with material US-based earnings – where macro dynamics are more supportive of cyclicals.

With the US Federal Reserve still likely to cut rates, rather than increase them as our central bank is likely to, “the US economy provides a broadly supportive backdrop for US-exposed cyclicals”.

Wilsons said they put a filter on ASX-listed companies looking for strong market positions, high returns on invested capital, and genuine structural growth stories, and came up with two stock picks which they say “offer attractive double-digit earnings growth prospects and trade at compelling valuations following recent share price weakness”.

Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL)

With Aristocrat shares falling about 30% since early this year after two “underwhelming” profit results, Wilsons says the stock is looking like good value at the moment.

And despite being sold off after the most recent full year results in November, Wilsons said there was still “plenty to like” in the numbers.

As they said:

Headline EBITA was 2% ahead of consensus, the group returned to double-digit earnings growth in the second half, and game performance continues to track well. We view the recent share price weakness as overdone given our thesis remains intact and we remain confident the business is well placed to deliver double digit earnings growth over the medium and long-term.

Wilsons does not have a price target on the shares, but says Aristocrat’s valuation at current levels is looking cheap compared with its historical performance against the ASX All Industrials Index.

In our view, at current levels the market undervalues Aristocrat, given its above-market (mid-teens) medium term earnings per share growth outlook and the quality of the business as a global market leader with a top-quartile return on invested capital and a durable competitive moat. Accordingly, with our investment thesis intact and the US macro-backdrop increasingly supportive, recent share price weakness presents an attractive buying opportunity.

CAR Group Ltd (ASX: CAR)

Shares in CAR Group have fallen about 25% since the company reported its full-year result in August, Wilsons said, “despite delivering a solid outcome featuring double-digit EBITDA growth in line with expectations”.

The Wilsons team say the share price falls largely reflect a broad de-rating across technology shares, and there are also some concerns about AI-disruption, “specifically the risk that AI agent-led discovery could reduce site traffic – have weighed on the online classifieds sector more broadly”.

We view these concerns as largely sentiment-driven and overblown given CAR’s firmly entrenched competitive moat. Importantly, our investment thesis remains intact, with CAR Group remaining in a fundamentally strong position. We remain confident the group will deliver mid-teens earnings per share growth over the medium-term.

The Wilsons team says the company’s Australian Carsales business provides “a steady ballast” for the group,  while its international businesses were key to the growth outlook.

These businesses operate in large, structurally growing online classifieds markets that are significantly underpenetrated relative to Carsales, with penetration rates in the low to mid-single digits, supporting a long runway for growth.

Wilsons says CAR Group’s valuation on a price-to-earnings (P/E) basis is currently below its five and 10-year averages, and “accordingly, with its earnings growth outlook remaining attractive, CAR’s undemanding valuation offers an attractive buying opportunity”.

The post Wilsons Advisory names two quality cyclicals with good offshore earnings appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CAR Group Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) shares are on the slide on Wednesday.

In morning trade, the wine giant’s shares are down 17% to $4.57.

Why are Treasury Wine shares crashing?

Investors have been selling the company’s shares after the wine giant released an investor update and outlook for the first half of FY 2026.

That update revealed how trading conditions in key markets are faring and outlines a series of strategic actions being taken by the board and new CEO to protect its brand and position the Treasury Wine for longer-term growth

Softer conditions in key markets

According to the release, trading conditions have weakened in recent months, particularly in the US and China. As a result, near term improvement is now considered unlikely, and expectations for sales volume growth have been moderated

The company noted that customer inventory levels in both markets are currently above optimal levels. In China, parallel import activity has also been disrupting pricing for its flagship Penfolds brand, prompting management to take decisive action.

Strategic actions to protect Penfolds

To address these issues, Treasury Wine plans to reduce customer inventory holdings in the US and China over a two-year period and significantly restrict shipments that are contributing to parallel imports in China.

Management believes that these steps will protect brand equity and support healthier sales channels over time

Despite the near-term headwinds, Penfolds continues to deliver depletions growth in several markets, led by products such as Bin 389 and Bin 407. Depletions in China rose 21% in the three months to October, although growth is now expected to slow from earlier plans

Outlook

Treasury Wine now expects its earnings before interest and tax (EBITS) to be between $225 million and $235 million in the first half of FY 2026, with a stronger performance anticipated in the second half of the year

Leverage is expected to rise above the company’s target range in the near term as inventory is rebalanced, peaking at around 2.5x at the half year.  However, management confirmed it has a range of options available to support its balance sheet. This includes reviewing dividends, capital expenditure, and non-core assets.

Transformation program underway

Following the commencement of its new CEO, Sam Fischer, Treasury Wine has launched a company-wide transformation program known as TWE Ascent.

This initiative targets portfolio optimisation, operating model improvements, and cost reductions of approximately $100 million per year. The benefits from TWE Ascent are expected to begin flowing from FY 2027

Commenting on the update, Fischer said the company is navigating near-term challenges while remaining confident in its long-term foundations. He said:

We are currently experiencing category weakness in the US and China, two of our key growth markets, which will impact our business performance in the near-term. Maintaining the strength of our brands and the health of their respective sales channels is of critical importance to our Management team and our Board as we navigate through the current environment.

TWE is a high-quality business with strong foundations in place for sustainable, profitable growth. Our powerful portfolio of brands, leading market positions in attractive growth markets, unparalleled supply chain and highly engaged, capable team are all considerable strengths that position us strongly to deliver sustainable, profitable growth over the long-term.

The post Why are Treasury Wine shares crashing 17% today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) share price could be in focus today after the company announced the sale of its GrainsConnect Canada joint venture and provided a trading update, highlighting an expected drop in receival volumes for FY26 compared to last year.

What did GrainCorp report?

• Sale of GrainsConnect Canada JV to Parrish & Heimbecker for C$150 million (cash-free, debt-free basis)
• GrainCorp expects to recognise a loss on sale of approximately A$5–10 million
• Preliminary FY26 receival volumes estimated at 11.0–12.0 million tonnes (FY25: 13.3 million tonnes)
• No impact to through-the-cycle EBITDA of A$320 million
• Full earnings guidance to be provided at AGM on 18 February 2026

What else do investors need to know?

The GrainsConnect sale follows a strategic review after a period of challenging financial performance for the joint venture. GrainCorp and its partner considered several alternatives before deciding on the sale as the most value-positive option.

GrainCorp’s Canadian marketing offices in Winnipeg are not part of the transaction and will continue operations, maintaining support for customers and delivering market insights to the wider team.

Harvest activity for the 2025–26 winter crop is mostly complete in Queensland and northern NSW, but weather disruptions continue in other regions. The company is focusing on cost management due to lower expected crop volumes and ongoing margin pressure.

What did GrainCorp management say?

Robert Spurway, Managing Director and CEO said:

This transaction reflects GrainCorp’s ongoing commitment to portfolio optimisation and our readiness to rationalise assets where necessary to improve returns. Divestment of GrainsConnect allows GrainCorp to focus on alternative value-creating opportunities that are in the best interests of our shareholders.

What’s next for GrainCorp?

Completion of the GrainsConnect transaction is anticipated in the first half of 2026, pending standard conditions. GrainCorp says it remains focused on cost control and supporting customers, with further clarity on earnings to be announced at the February AGM.

While crop receival volumes are down due to market and weather pressures, the company’s core EBITDA guidance is unchanged. GrainCorp’s strategy includes ongoing optimisation of its portfolio and supporting its Australian and global agribusiness operations.

GrainCorp share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, GrainCorp shares have risen 12%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 3% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post GrainCorp sells GrainsConnect Canada and updates on FY26 crop volumes appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

Seeing a share price double is one of those rare moments that reminds investors why they bother putting capital at risk in the first place. 

Watching a stock climb 100%, 200%, or even more in a relatively short period feels incredible — especially when it’s sitting in your own portfolio.

That said, the reality is that most enduring wealth on the share market is built through patience and long-term ownership of quality businesses. Short-term share price surges are unpredictable and often volatile. However, when it does happen, it is usually tied to powerful underlying themes and/or a sharp improvement in fundamentals.

So far in 2025, a handful of ASX-listed companies with market capitalisations above $1 billion — well clear of penny stocks or microcaps — have delivered multibagger returns. Here are three of the standouts.

1. Electro Optic Systems Holdings Ltd (ASX: EOS)

12-month gain: +617%

Electro Optic Systems designs and manufactures advanced defence and space systems, including remote weapon stations, counter-drone technologies, and satellite communications equipment. Its products are used by military and security customers globally, placing the company squarely in the crosshairs of rising defence spending.

The company’s share price surge reflects a dramatic shift in market perception. Strong contract momentum, expanding order books, and improving operational execution have convinced investors that EOS is transitioning from a volatile defence contractor into a more reliable, scalable supplier aligned with long-term geopolitical tailwinds.

Heightened global security concerns, particularly across Europe and allied nations, have put counter-drone and defence capabilities in sharp focus. That has driven renewed investor confidence and a significant re-rating of earnings expectations.

2. 4DMedical Ltd (ASX: 4DX)

12-month gain: +547.8%

4DMedical sits at the intersection of healthcare and advanced imaging technology. The company’s proprietary lung imaging platform allows clinicians to assess respiratory function with far greater precision than traditional methods, helping diagnose and manage conditions such as COPD, asthma, and post-viral lung damage.

The explosive share price move in 2025 has been driven by accelerating commercial traction, particularly in the US healthcare market. Regulatory progress, reimbursement milestones, and growing clinical adoption have shifted the company from “promising technology” to genuine commercial contender.

Investors have responded to clearer pathways to revenue scalability, recurring usage, and broader clinical acceptance. As confidence in the business model has improved, so too has the valuation investors are willing to place on future growth.

3. DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO)

12-month gain: +356.9%

DroneShield develops counter-drone detection and mitigation systems used by military, government, and critical infrastructure operators. As drone warfare and security threats have become increasingly prominent, demand for DroneShield’s technology has surged.

The company has delivered a steady stream of contract wins across Europe, the Americas, and allied defence networks, including several record-breaking orders. Investment in manufacturing capacity and R&D has further reinforced the market’s belief that DroneShield is positioning itself as a global leader in a fast-growing niche.

Importantly, the share price gains haven’t followed a straight line. While strong contract wins and expanding demand have underpinned the longer-term move, DroneShield shares have also been volatile, with periods of sharp pullbacks and increased scrutiny around management actions and communication. As with many fast-rising growth stocks, investor sentiment has shifted quickly at times, reinforcing the importance of patience and risk awareness.

A Foolish word on multibaggers

Stories like these are undeniably inspiring. But it’s worth remembering that rapid gains often come with heightened volatility. Big winners can pull back sharply, and past performance alone is never a guarantee of future returns.

For many investors, the most practical takeaway isn’t to chase yesterday’s multibagger — it’s to focus on owning quality businesses early, staying diversified, and giving time for compounding to do its work. Occasionally, that discipline is rewarded with an outsized winner along the way.

And when it happens, it’s a reminder that the ASX is still capable of producing world-class growth stories.

The post The 3 biggest ASX multibaggers in 2025 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Leigh Gant has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield and Electro Optic Systems. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you are a fan of ASX 200 growth shares then you will be pleased to know that analysts are forecasting strong returns from the four listed below.

Here’s what they are recommending to clients:

Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL)

The first ASX 200 growth share that analysts are tipping as a buy is Aristocrat Leisure.

It is one of the world’s leading gaming technology companies with operations covering poker machines, real money gaming, and mobile games.

Bell Potter is bullish on the company and recently put a buy rating and $80.00 price target on its shares. This implies potential upside of approximately 40% for investors from current levels.

Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV)

Another ASX 200 growth share that has been tipped to rise strongly over the next 12 months is Lovisa.

It is a fashion jewellery retailer that is currently embarking on a major global expansion. At the last count, it was operating 1,075 stores across more than 50 markets.

Morgans is a big fan of Lovisa and has named it as one of its top picks in the retail sector. The broker has a buy rating and $40.00 price target on its shares, which suggests that upside of over 35% is possible from where they trade today.

NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT)

Morgans also sees plenty of upside potential in NextDC shares at current levels.

It is one of Asia’s most innovative data centre-as-a-service providers. It delivers critical power, security, and connectivity for global cloud platform providers, enterprise, and government markets from a growing network of centres across Australia and the Asia-Pacific.

Morgans recently upgraded the company’s shares to a buy rating with a $19.00 price target. This implies potential upside of over 45% for investors.

Xero Limited (ASX: XRO)

A final ASX 200 growth share that could rise strongly from current levels according to analysts is Xero.

It is one of the world’s leading cloud accounting platform providers. Since launching in 2006, it has grown from a handful of small businesses in New Zealand to 4.6 million subscribers globally and is generating huge recurring revenue and EBITDA.

The good news is that with an estimated market opportunity of 100 million small to medium sized businesses, Xero still has a significant growth runway.

Ord Minnett sees significant value in Xero shares. Last month, the broker put a buy rating and $200.00 price target on them. This implies potential upside of approximately 80% for investors.

The post These world class ASX 200 growth shares could rise 40% to 80% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Lovisa, Nextdc, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Lovisa and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Lovisa. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

A new report from ASX ETF provider Global X has shed light on the success of ASX small-cap shares this year. 

This has been reflected in the investor activity throughout November. Data shows there has been a surge in small-cap investing amongst ETF investors. 

Outperforming the blue-chips

The Global X Market Scoop report stated that Australian equity ETFs with a size-tilt experienced a notable surge in net flows during November. This reflects growing investor interest in diversifying beyond the large-cap-dominated landscape.

According to the report, after several years in which large caps, such as banks, led market returns, attention is increasingly shifting to smaller and mid-sized companies.

These can offer potential for outsized growth and portfolio broadening. 

Global X said the trend underscores that investors may be looking to capture opportunities across the full spectrum of the Australian equity market rather than concentrating solely on the mega-cap heavyweights.

Whether investors are aiming for the top 300 Australian companies rather than just the top 200, or focusing exclusively on smaller companies, small-caps could be making a comeback.

So far in 2025, these shares have outperformed their large-cap counterparts by 14%. This marks the best relative outperformance in nearly 16 years.

Attracting investor capital 

Global X said this renewed focus has coincided with the launch of several new, more active ETFs targeting small and mid segments. 

This provides investors with targeted exposure and more flexible management strategies. 

For example, the Global X Australia 300 ETF (ASX: A300) was launched in August this year. 

As these products gain traction, small and mid-cap ETFs are beginning to attract capital, suggesting the potential for a rotation or at least a complementary role alongside traditional large-cap allocations.

In November 2025, record inflows of approximately $272 million were seen into Australian small-cap ETFs, underscoring a growing investor appetite for the segment.

How to target small-caps

There are funds that track the 300 largest companies on the ASX, like the previously mentioned Global X Australia 300 ETF or the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS). 

These give you more access to mid and smaller companies outside the top 200.

However, they do still include a large weighting towards blue-chip stocks. 

For a more specific focus and to avoid crossover into large-cap stocks, there are other ASX ETFs to consider: 

• Vanguard MSCI Australian Small Companies Index ETF (ASX: VSO) – Tracks roughly 180 small-cap companies
• BetaShares Australian Small Companies Select Fund (ASX: SMLL) – Invests in a portfolio typically between 50-100 small-cap stocks that are generally within the 91-350 largest by market cap

The post Why Australian small-cap shares are shining appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) share price is in focus today after the company updated investors on its first-half FY26 outlook, highlighting weaker conditions in the US and China and a forecast for 1H26 EBITS between $225 million and $235 million.

What did Treasury Wine Estates report?

• 1H26 EBITS expected in the range of $225 million to $235 million
• Leverage projected to be 2.5x at 1H26, above the target range of 1.5–2.0x for around two years
• Penfolds division 1H26 EBITS anticipated at approximately $200 million, with steady delivery across the year
• Treasury Americas division 1H26 EBITS expected at about $40 million, impacted by challenges in California
• Treasury Collective 1H26 EBITS expected at roughly $25 million, with second-half performance forecast to improve
• $100 million per annum in cost improvements targeted from the new ‘TWE Ascent’ transformation program, with benefits starting in FY27

What else do investors need to know?

Recent market softness, especially for luxury and fine wines, has been felt in the US and China. Elevated inventory holdings in both regions have influenced Treasury Wine Estates to reduce customer stocks over the next two years and restrict shipments, especially to counter parallel imports in China and protect the Penfolds brand.

The group has also cancelled its $200 million on-market share buyback, of which $30.5 million had been completed, to prioritise capital flexibility and bring leverage levels back to target. TWE is preparing to adjust its supply and intake models in Australia and may refine its US production network as it moves to rebalance luxury inventories following softer demand.

Management say strong foundations, including a robust balance sheet and diversified debt maturities, will help navigate this period and support sustainable growth, even as some short-term headwinds persist.

What did Treasury Wine Estates management say?

Chief Executive Officer Sam Fischer said:

We are currently experiencing category weakness in the US and China, two of our key growth markets, which will impact our business performance in the near-term. Maintaining the strength of our brands and the health of their respective sales channels is of critical importance to our Management team and our Board as we navigate through the current environment.

TWE is a high-quality business with strong foundations in place for sustainable, profitable growth. Our powerful portfolio of brands, leading market positions in attractive growth markets, unparalleled supply chain and highly engaged, capable team are all considerable strengths that position us strongly to deliver sustainable, profitable growth over the long-term.

What’s next for Treasury Wine Estates?

Treasury Wine Estates is focused on executing its ‘TWE Ascent’ transformation program to streamline operations and achieve material cost benefits. The company expects initial benefits from the $100 million cost improvement target to commence in FY27, with full impact realised over two to three years.

Investors can expect further updates on the progress of inventory rebalancing, capital structure initiatives, and strategic changes during the February half-year results. Management is confident that responding quickly to shifting conditions will help position TWE for longer-term, sustainable and profitable growth.

Treasury Wine Estates share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Treasury Wine Estates shares have declined 53%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 3% over the same period.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

There are a number of appealing S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) copper shares that can give investors exposure to the compelling commodity needed for electrification, decarbonisation, and various other uses.

Names like BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO), and Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) all come to mind.

But, there’s another ASX 200 copper share that investors should be aware of, which I’m about to dive into: Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC).

UBS is the broker that likes Capstone Copper. The miner is headquartered and listed in Canada, but also has a presence on the ASX. It has a portfolio of five long-life copper assets across the Americas in Chile, the US, and Mexico. It has plans to grow production to 400kt per year as output grows from Mantoverde, and Santo Domingo comes online at the end of the decade.

Will Capstone Copper reach 400kt of production?

UBS believes that the ASX 200 copper share will reach 400kt per year of production, though it’s “happy to model” a slightly more conservative ramp-up to around 370kt by 2030. However, the broker listed a number of growth projects that could help it reach 400kt per year of production:

There remains a number of further growth projects to get it to 400ktpa and beyond including: Mantoverde Cobalt, Mantos Blancos Phase II, Mantoverde Phase II, Santo Domingo oxides & cobalt, Sierra Norte integration, Mantoverde Phase II and Pinto Valley district consolidation (Copper cities).

In 2025, UBS is predicting the business to reach 221kt of production, up 20% year over year.

Why is this ASX 200 copper share appealing?

UBS says it continues to like both the short-term and long-term outlook for copper, with the recent supply challenges from some miners “only serving to exacerbate the more structural issues in front of the industry.”

With a projection that its production is going to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 10% per year, the business looks “well placed to capitalise on these positive fundamentals as the lesser appreciated copper name on the ASX”.

UBS expects 2026 to be the year the market “experiences real tightness on increased impediments to supply, putting the market into deficit and driving sustainable price upside.”

Higher copper prices could be a significant boost for the business, as that could add to profitability. More revenue for the same level of production largely adds to the bottom line.

Price target on Capstone Copper shares

UBS currently has a price target of $16 on Capstone Copper shares. That suggests the ASX 200 copper share could rise by 10% over the next 12 months. Further profit growth in the subsequent years could help send the share price higher.

The post This ASX 200 copper share is a buy – UBS appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.