Knowing which ASX 200 shares to avoid can be just as important as knowing which ones to buy for the overall health of a portfolio.

With that in mind, let’s now take a look at three shares experts are telling investors to sell, courtesy of The Bull.

Here’s what they are bearish on this week:

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB)

Family Financial Solutions is urging investors to sell NAB shares. It believes the big four bank is “materially overvalued” and thinks investors would be better off redeploying capital elsewhere. It explains:

NAB is Australia’s largest business bank, benefiting from an oligopolistic market structure. Statutory net profit of $6.759 billion in full year 2025 was down 2.9 per cent on the prior corresponding period. A credit impairment charge of $833 million was up from $728 million in the previous year. In our view, the shares are materially overvalued and leave little margin for error. Capital is better redeployed into discounted quality.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

Alto Capital believes that this gold giant is an ASX 200 share to sell this week. It believes that the risk-reward is unfavourable for buyers given how much upside is already built into the gold miner’s share price. It explains:

Northern Star’s share price has performed strongly, supported by higher gold prices and improved sentiment towards large market capitalisation producers. However, the company’s most recent production report disappointed, with output and cost guidance undershooting market expectations. While the longer term outlook for gold remains positive, recent operational softness tempers near term confidence. With much of the upside already reflected in the share price, the risk-reward balance favours taking profits at current levels.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES)

The team at Family Financial Solutions has also named this conglomerate as an ASX 200 share to sell.

It thinks that the Bunnings and Kmart owner’s shares are trading at a lofty premium and better returns could be achieved elsewhere. It said:

This industrial conglomerate owns high quality businesses, such as Bunnings and Kmart Group. The company is diversified, with other businesses including Officeworks, Wesfarmers Chemicals, Energy and Fertilisers and industrial safety. Diversification is a benefit as it spreads risk. However, in our view, the stock remains significantly overvalued, with optimism already priced in. The stock was recently trading on a lofty price/earnings ratio above 32 times, so it’s exposed to a correction on signs of any weakness. We would be inclined to trim holdings and re-invest the proceeds in stocks offering better value.

The post Experts name NAB and these ASX 200 shares as sells appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Is this the right time to invest in ASX defensive shares?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• ASX 200 financials flew but tech and mining shares faltered last week
• How could I turn $500 a month into $50,000 with ASX shares?
• Gold price recovers as reasons for buying ‘remain in place, but are also compounding’

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

I’m always on the lookout for ASX share opportunities that are priced too cheaply for their future prospects. When the entire ASX share market declines amid indiscriminate selling, investors can pick up bargains.

Sell-offs don’t happen for no reason, there’s usually a reason for the fear. Whether that’s because of a pandemic, inflation, AI worries or something else.

Those fears can make investors pause before investing, yet that’s when the best prices are often presented. Who knows how long prices will stay as low as they are? Or the prices could go even lower.

In the last few years, we’ve seen some recoveries happen very quickly, as we saw after the tariff self-off last year and the COVID-19 drop in 2020.

With many share prices still at their lowest point in months or in some cases years, I think this could be a great time to invest.

Why this is a great time to invest in ASX shares

I think that Warren Buffett, who led Berkshire Hathaway to become the huge business it is today, has given some very useful pieces of advice over time on how to consider times like this:

If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period?

Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall.

Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.

There are some ASX tech shares that are now down more than 50% from their peak within the last year or so.

When a business falls 50%, if it were to recover back to that previous level then that would be a rise of 100%. Of course, we shouldn’t necessarily anchor our share price expectations to where it has been at previous levels. It could take a long time to recover.

But, at this lower price, the business doesn’t have the same level of expectations built into the valuation, so it’s a much better time to invest. Companies like Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME), Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) and WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) have fallen heavily. These three companies could be primary candidates to bounce back the most if they regain the confidence of the market.

I think this period is the right time to scan the ASX share market for opportunities. I’m planning to put money to work this week.

The post Why I’m planning to act this week and buy ASX shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Earnings preview: How do experts rate these blue-chip ASX stocks reporting this week?
• A rare buying opportunity in 1 of Australia’s top shares?
• What the stronger Australian dollar means for your shares
• Why are ASX 200 tech shares diving 13% this week?

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Berkshire Hathaway, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Berkshire Hathaway and Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Are you wanting to give your income portfolio an extra boost this month?

If you are, then it could be worth checking out the three ASX dividend stocks in this article.

They have been rated as buys by analysts at Bell Potter and are being tipped to offer attractive dividend yields in the near term. Here’s what you need to know about them:

Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX: CIP)

Bell Potter thinks that Centuria Industrial REIT could be an ASX dividend stock to buy right now

It is a leading industrial property company that owns a portfolio of high-quality industrial assets. These assets are situated in urban infill locations throughout Australia where demand is strong.

Bell Potter believes the company’s assets have positioned it to pay dividends per share of 16.8 cents in FY 2026 and then 17.3 cents in FY 2027. Based on its current share price of $3.15, this would mean dividend yields of 5.3% and 5.5%, respectively.

The broker currently has a buy rating and $3.65 price target on its shares.

Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD)

The team at Bell Potter is also positive on Elders and sees it as an ASX dividend stock to buy now.

Elders is an agribusiness company that provides rural and livestock services, agricultural inputs, and real estate services to Australia’s farming sector.

Bell Potter believes the market is undervaluing the company’s Delta Agribusiness acquisition and highlights that the base business is performing well and has multiple growth drivers.

With respect to income, it is forecasting Elders to pay fully franked dividends of 43 cents per share in FY 2026 and then 45 cents per share in FY 2027. Based on its current share price of $6.80, this would mean dividend yields of 6.3% and 6.6%, respectively.

Bell Potter has a buy rating and $9.45 price target on its shares.

Universal Store Holdings Ltd (ASX: UNI)

A third and final ASX dividend stock that analysts are tipping as a buy for income investors is Universal Store.

It is a growing youth fashion retailer behind the Universal Store, Thrills, and Perfect Stranger brands.

Bell Potter highlights that Universal Store has been performing well in a difficult consumer environment. The good news is that it believes this positive performance can continue thanks to its store rollouts and private label expansion.

The broker expects this to support fully franked dividends of 37.3 cents per share in FY 2026 and 41.4 cents per share in FY 2027. Based on its current share price of $8.61, this equates to dividend yields of 4.3% and 4.8%, respectively.

Bell Potter currently has a buy rating and $10.50 price target on its shares.

The post These buy-rated ASX dividend stocks offer 4% to 6% yields appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Is this the right time to invest in ASX defensive shares?
• Why Beach Energy, Elders, Maas, and Neuren shares are dropping today
• Guess which ASX 200 stock is falling on CEO news
• Elders appoints René Dedoncker as next CEO in planned succession
• Why these ASX dividend shares could be top picks for income investors in February

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Universal Store. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Elders and Universal Store. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Lotus Resources Ltd (ASX: LOT) shares were under pressure last week.

The ASX uranium stock tumbled into the red after completing a capital raising.

Is this a buying opportunity for investors looking for exposure to the chemical element? Let’s see what analysts at Bell Potter are saying about the miner.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter notes that Lotus Resources’ capital raising was necessary to strengthen its balance sheet after a tough period. It believes the ASX uranium stock is now covered for the next nine months of operation. The broker explains:

LOT announced it had intended to raise A$76m via an institutional placement, and a further $5m via a SPP to support the ongoing ramp up of the Kayelekera uranium project. Production in 2Q of 70klbs U3O8 (drummed) was impacted by sulphuric acid availability (shortages) and logistical issues (transportation). LOT spent A$39m in capital over the quarter, finishing with A$56m in cash.

With the cash-flow conversion being further drawn out on delays to qualification testing from convertors (Orano, Cameco and Converdyn), cash was going to be tight heading into the end of CY26. The top up should see them through the next ~9 months of operations, barring any further disruptions.

While Bell Potter acknowledges that Lotus Resources is not quite out of the woods, it sees light at the end of the tunnel. It said:

Acid and power: The two key considerations targeted under the restart as being critical to lowering operating costs at Kayelekera. The acid plant should commence commissioning in the current quarter, which will reduce the overall dependence on imported sulphuric acid. The grid connection is scheduled for 4QCY26, which should also lower operating costs, which accounted for ~18% of Opex when Kayelekera previously operated.

Our current estimate of operating cash burn is ~A$16m pq going to A$37m pq at full capacity, meaning the business has ~$12m of operating expense runway. Capital projects remaining in the pipeline include the TSF lift and grid connection. With qualification for the three convertors coming to a protracted end, LOT will look for first shipments in June, with ~6 shipments commencing per quarter on a steady state basis. This should see cash receipts pick up in Sept-Dec, depending on the destination of the sale. LOT have contracted 1Mlbs for CY26, and we estimate production of 1.4Mlbs over the same period, as such, LOT has limited earnings leverage to the recent move in spot uranium prices.

Should you buy this ASX uranium stocks?

According to the note, the broker has retained its speculative buy rating with a trimmed price target of $3.70 (from $4.00).

Based on its current share price of $2.08, this implies potential upside of almost 80% over the next 12 months.

Though, given its speculative rating, this investment would only be suitable for investors with a high tolerance for risk.

Commenting on its recommendation, Bell Potter said:

We make adjustments to our valuation, which includes adjusting for the recent 11.5:1 consolidation, and the increase in shares on issue assuming completion of the capital raise. Adjustments to timing and volume of sales (and cash receipts) have also been made. LOT are going through the ramp-up of Kayelekera, as such, financial performance is likely to be volatile and difficult to predict.

The post Why this ASX uranium stock could rocket almost 80% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why EOS, Lotus Resources, REA, and Web Travel shares are dropping today
• Why is this ASX uranium stock crashing 30%?
• Why this ASX uranium miner’s shares are frozen today
• Bell Potter names the best ASX uranium stocks to buy now

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The ASX dividend stock HMC Capital Ltd (ASX: HMC) has fallen heavily over the past year. I think this is a wonderful time to buy into an undervalued business because of how much lower the valuation has declined – it’s down 64% from February 2025, as the chart below shows.

The business is a diversified alternative asset manager focused on real estate, private equity, the energy transition and digital infrastructure.

One of the most useful things about a decline of a share price is that it leads to a higher dividend yield.

For example, if a business has a dividend yield of 4% and then the share price drops 10%, the yield becomes 4.4%. A 20% decline leads to a 4.8% yield, and so on.

Let’s take a look at what payout and dividend yield the ASX dividend stock could deliver in FY26 and beyond.

Projected passive income

Broker UBS currently forecasts that HMC Capital could continue to deliver an annual payout of 12 cents per share in FY26, as it has done in recent years. That potential payout translates into a forecast dividend yield of 3%, or 4.4% grossed-up if the upcoming payouts are fully franked.

The ASX dividend stock is forecast to provide investors with another year of 12 cents per share in FY27, which would translate into the same yields I mentioned above.

But, the business could see higher dividends in the subsequent years, according to the projection from UBS.

The broker forecasts that the business could pay an annual dividend per share of 13 cents in FY28. That’d be a dividend yield of 3.3% and a possible grossed-up dividend yield of 4.7%, including potential franking credits.

The FY29 payout by the business could be 13 cents per share again, according to UBS. That would translate into the same dividend yields I calculated for FY28.

The best year of all for income-focused investments could be the 2030 financial year, according to the projection from UBS. That would be a possible cash dividend yield of 3.6%, or a grossed-up dividend yield of 5.1%, if it provides fully franked dividends.

Why this could be a good time to invest in the ASX dividend stock

Last week, the business announced it had established a new strategic partnership where KKR managed funds will invest up to $603 million into HMC’s energy transition platform.

The investment will support the platform’s continued expansion, according to HMC, including the development of new battery storage and wind projects critical to grid reliability and Australia’s energy transition.

This deal will be used to repay HMC Capital debt, and the company will charge annual fees of $5 million for the provision of corporate services support. HMC’s invested capital in the platform is expected to reduce by approximately $200 million.

I think this is a good step toward rebuilding investor confidence in the business.

UBS has a buy rating on the business, with a price target of $7.14, suggesting sizeable capital growth over the next year from where it is today. Explaining its buy rating on the business (which came before the KKR news), the broker said:

Our Buy rating is based on expectations that risks can be resolved and the platform can continue to grow, albeit at a more modest rate than the recent history. We now assume AUM reaches $28bn in FY29 with only $4.5bn assumed for energy transition (in contrast HMC are still targeting $50bn in 3-5yrs incl. energy transition at $5-10bn). The pushback to this view reflects a scenario where the energy transition assets take time to sell down, limiting the group’s ability to execute elsewhere across the platform given capital constraints, and other fund raisings disappoint as historical missteps/risks limit the ability to raise new equity.

Earnings per share (EPS) is expected by UBS to rise from 36 cents in FY26 to 52 cents in FY30, a rise of 44%, which is a positive tailwind for both capital growth and dividend growth.

The post 1 ASX dividend stock down 64% I’d buy right now appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Brambles, HMC Capital, ResMed, and Rio Tinto shares are rising today
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended HMC Capital and KKR. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended HMC Capital. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

There are a lot of ASX 200 shares out there for investors to choose from.

So, to narrow down the options, let’s take a look at what analysts are saying about three names, courtesy of The Bull.

One has been named as a hold, whereas the others are being tipped as buys. Here’s what you need to know:

Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA)

This diversified food company’s shares are a hold according to Ord Minnett. The broker thinks that recent increases in the farmgate milk price could be a headwind in 2026 and weigh on its profit growth. It said:

Shares in this food and dairy company have performed well since late 2025, with the price increasing from $5.15 on November 7 to trade at $6.21 on February 5, 2026. The company’s profitability has recovered as the gap between farmgate milk prices and global commodity prices has narrowed. However, farmgate milk price increases in fiscal year 2026 may limit further profit gains from the bulk segment. The company maintains its long term focus on achieving its fiscal year 2028 target of more than $250 million in earnings and a return on funds employed exceeding 10 per cent.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS)

The team at Family Financial Solutions thinks that Telstra could be a top ASX 200 share to buy this week.

It likes Australia’s largest telco due to its resilient mobile earnings and defensive earnings. In addition, it thinks its fully franked dividend is attractive (and reliable). It explains:

Telstra is Australia’s dominant telecommunications provider with infrastructure‑like cash flows. Reported net profit after tax of $2.3 billion in full year 2025 was up 31 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Cash earnings per share of 22.4 cents were up 12 per cent. The shares were trading at $4.935 on February 5, below our fair value of $5.40. Cost discipline, share buy-backs and resilient mobile earnings support steady upside in a market that still rewards defensiveness. On top of this, Telstra pays reliable, fully franked dividends. Its full year dividend of 19 cents a share in fiscal year 2025 was up 5.6 per cent on the prior corresponding period. TLS was recently trading on a dividend yield of 3.85 per cent.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

Ord Minnett has named buy now pay later provider Zip as an ASX 200 share to buy.

The broker highlights that Zip is performing very positively in FY 2026 and believes this trend can continue. This is especially the case given that the second half is usually the stronger half for margins. It said:

This digital financial company operates in Australia, New Zealand and the United States. There’s a lot to like about this buy now, pay later platform provider’s first quarter result in fiscal year 2026. Total transaction volume (TTV) growth in the US was up 47.2 per cent and revenue was up 51.2 per cent.  Consequently, Zip’s management has increased TTV guidance in the US to more than 40 per cent in full year 2026, which is up from 35 per cent. Margins were strong across the board, highlighted by an operating margin of 19.5 per cent in the first quarter, which is above the guidance range of between 16 per cent and 19 per cent for full year 2026. Margins are usually stronger in the second half.

The post Forget this ASX 200 share and buy Telstra and Zip shares: Experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX 200 financials flew but tech and mining shares faltered last week
• I would invest $50,000 in these ASX 200 shares if I were aiming to beat the market in 2026
• How could I turn $500 a month into $50,000 with ASX shares?
• Passive income: How much do you need to invest to make $500 per month?
• The best Australian dividend stocks to buy and hold forever

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Global equities are showing signs of being stretched across many sectors. 

Despite a dip last week, both the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) are not far off all-time highs. 

When this happens, it can be prudent for investors to shift the focus away from growth/value investing strategies to income. 

One way to do this is through ASX ETFs that target market-beating income returns. 

Income-focused ASX ETFs can be attractive because they offer diversification and access to dividends that may help cushion volatility.

Here are three ASX ETFs investors may wish to consider for an income boost. 

Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF (ASX: VHY)

This high yield ASX ETF consistently performs as one of the top passive income options for investors. 

The fund employs an investment strategy that tracks the FTSE Australia High Dividend Yield Index. 

This index provides exposure to ASX shares with higher forecast dividends than the broader market.

It currently offers a trailing yield of around 4.25%. 

Last year, I covered that the trailing 12-month dividend yield of the S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) was 3.5%.

This fund clearly outperforms this average, which is good news for long-term investors seeking market beating income. 

Its top weighted holdings are: 

• BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP): 10.62%
• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA): 9.91%
• Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC): 7.31%. 

It comes with a management fee of 0.25% p.a, which is relatively low.

Betashares Australian Dividend Harvester Fund (ASX: HVST)

This ASX ETF uses a slightly different strategy to generate income. 

It aims to provide franked income that exceeds the net income yield of the broad Australian sharemarket on an annual basis, along with exposure to a diversified portfolio of Australian shares.

According to Betashares, it follows a rules-based ‘dividend harvest’ strategy, which seeks to maximise HVST’s exposure to dividend-paying Australian shares.

The fund’s share portfolio is generally selected from the largest 100 Australian shares on the ASX, screened for high dividend and franking outcomes based upon expected future gross dividend payments.

The share portfolio is rebalanced approximately every three months, with the aim of including the shares that are expected, within the next rebalance period, to provide the highest gross yield outcomes.

As of 2 February 2026, its 12-month yield was 5.8%.

It comes with a management fee p.a. of 0.72%. 

Global X S&P/ASX 300 High Yield Plus ETF (ASX: ZYAU)

This ASX ETF invests in 50 high-dividend stocks from the S&P/ASX 200 Index.

It has the lowest management cost of the three listed funds, charging 0.24% p.a.

As at 30 January 30, it had a 12-Month yield of 4.12%. 

It is worth noting the fund is a purely income-focused strategy with limited capital growth.

However this could make it ideal for investors anticipating limited capital gains from the ASX in 2026. 

The post With global valuations stretched here are 3 great income ASX ETFs appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here’s the earnings forecast out to 2029 for CBA shares
• Earnings preview: How do experts rate these blue-chip ASX stocks reporting this week?
• ASX 200 financials flew but tech and mining shares faltered last week
• Passive income: How much do you need to invest to make $500 per month?
• Westpac vs CBA shares, which is the better buy?

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group and Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

On Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finished the week with a day to forget. The benchmark index fell 2% to 8,708.8 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to bounce back

The Australian share market looks set for a great start to the week following a strong finish to the last one on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 102 points or 1.2% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones was up 2.5%, the S&P 500 rose 2%, and the Nasdaq stormed 2.2% higher.

Oil prices rise

It could be a decent start to the week for ASX 200 energy shares such as Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices rose on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was up 0.4% to US$63.55 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was up 0.75% to US$68.05 a barrel. Oil prices bounced around last week amid increased uncertainty between the US and Iran.

ASX 200 tech stocks on watch

It could be a much better session for ASX 200 tech stocks like Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) and WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC). After being sold off last week on concerns that artificial intelligence could disrupt software providers, WiseTech and Xero look set to rebound on Monday after their peers on Wall Street finished the week with a bang. It seems that some investors felt the selling was overdone.

Gold price jumps

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a good start to the week after the gold price jumped on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was up 1.85% to US$4,979.8 an ounce. Traders were buying gold in response to a softer US dollar and US-Iran tensions.

Buy Life360 shares

Bell Potter is urging investors to buy Life360 Inc (ASX: 360) shares after they were caught up in the tech selloff. The broker points out that “Life360 is an app rather than software company so faces little risk of AI displacement given the ecosystem it has developed over >15 years.” This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating on the company’s shares with a trimmed price target of $41.50. It adds: “Life360 is now trading on 2026 and 2027 EV/Adjusted EBITDA multiples of c.31x and c.21x which looks value for forecast growth of c.45% in both periods.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX 200 financials flew but tech and mining shares faltered last week
• Here’s the average Australian superannuation balance at age 45 in 2026
• What the stronger Australian dollar means for your shares
• Gold price recovers as reasons for buying ‘remain in place, but are also compounding’
• Why are ASX 200 tech shares diving 13% this week?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Life360, WiseTech Global, Woodside Energy Group, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Life360, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Life360, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Owning Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares could come with steady earnings growth in the next few years, according to the projections from leading experts.

Experts regularly describe the ASX bank share as expensive. But, the CBA share price has dropped more than 10% in the past six months, as the chart below shows.

While the CBA share price does have a higher price/earnings (P/E) ratio than other ASX bank shares, it has an impressive record of regularly increasing earnings.

Let’s take a look at where earnings are expected to go in the coming years.

FY26

The last update investors saw from the ASX bank share was the first quarter of FY26, which saw $2.6 billion of cash net profit, representing a year-over-year increase of 2%.

The update saw CBA’s business lending grow by 10% year-over-year, household deposits grow by 9.5% year-over-year and home lending grow by 6.1%. However, operating expenses rose by 4% (excluding restructuring and notable items) because of wage and IT vendor inflation.

CBA’s underlying net interest margin (NIM) slightly dropped because of deposit switching, competition and the lower cash rate environment.

Commonwealth Bank’s loan impairment expense of $220 million, with collective and individual provisions being broadly flat. Portfolio credit quality remained “sound” with lower consumer arrears and corporate troublesome and non-performing exposures.

Broker UBS said that the result was broadly in line with expectations for the first half of FY26. However, the increase in costs (6.1% quarter-over-quarter) was “somewhat surprising”, even excluding the notable items. It was also surprising to UBS that the CET1 ratio declined to 11.75%, compared to market expectations of 12.3%.

Based on the above analysis, the broker UBS has forecast that CBA could produce $10.75 billion of net profit in FY26.

FY27

Commonwealth Bank’s net profit is expected to rise in the 2027 financial year, but the earnings growth rate is expected to be lower.

UBS is expecting the business to deliver net profit of $10.9 billion, which would be a rise of around $100 million.

FY28

The 2028 financial year could be another period of growth if UBS’ projections come true.

UBS expects CBA to achieve net profit of $11.25 billion, which would be a rise of around $370 million.

FY29

Of the years we’ve looked at, the 2029 financial year could see the biggest increase of earnings.

CBA is projected by UBS to see net profit of around $11.8 billion, which would be a year-over-year increase of approximately $350 million.

Therefore, UBS is projecting that CBA’s earnings could climb by 10% between FY26 and FY29, which isn’t exactly massive growth.

When the CBA share price was trading at $175, UBS thought it “would appear perfection is implicitly expected”. UBS has a sell rating on the business, with a CBA share price target of $125, implying a significant potential decline during 2026.

The post Here’s the earnings forecast out to 2029 for CBA shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• With global valuations stretched here are 3 great income ASX ETFs
• Earnings preview: How do experts rate these blue-chip ASX stocks reporting this week?
• ASX 200 financials flew but tech and mining shares faltered last week
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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) share Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) was smashed again on Friday, with its share price dropping 8% to $5.08.

The decline caps off a brutal year. The ASX 200 share is now down 53% over the past 12 months. Last week’s sell-off made the company one of the worst performers on the ASX 200.

It’s a sharp reversal for a 68-year-old business behind global prestigious brands like Penfolds, 19 Crimes and Lindemans.

Naturally, investors are asking the big question. Has the market gone too far? Or is there more pain ahead for the ASX 200 share?

Deep US problems

This isn’t just market nerves. Treasury Wine is facing real structural issues. The biggest concern is the US. It’s one of the company’s most important profit engines. And right now, it’s misfiring.

Distribution problems continue to bite. That’s especially worrying given how much capital has been poured into the region.

For his part, the relatively new Sam Fischer has not wasted any time in letting the market know that he’s there to make changes. Mid-December he announced that the company would look to strip $100 million per annum in costs out of the business.

The $4 billion ASX 200 share also cancelled its $200 million buyback at the time, in a bid to increase flexibility and lower debt levels.

French major shareholder

The company attracted some positive attention in December when French billionaire Olivier Goudet emerged as a significant shareholder, sparking speculation about a potential takeover bid.

Goudet is well known in European business circles as the former head of JAB Holding, where he oversaw the Reimann family’s wealth. He also led high-profile acquisitions including Krispy Kreme and Pret A Manger.

China hasn’t saved the day

The ASX 200 share also had high hopes for China when trade restrictions eased in 2024. But the rebound hasn’t delivered. Sales momentum remains sluggish. As a result, the recovery has been slower and weaker than expected.

Add in global trade tensions and political uncertainty, particularly in the US, and the outlook gets even murkier. These pressures have forced Treasury Wine into defence mode.

Treasury Wine management downgraded earnings, pulled guidance and shelved the planned buyback. Each move has chipped away at confidence. Together, they’ve accelerated the sell-off.

What now for the shares?

Broker sentiment is turning colder. UBS weighed in on Friday. It downgraded the stock to a sell from neutral. The broker slapped a $4.75 price target on the ASX 200 share, down from $5.25 on the shares. That implies downside risk compared with the current share price.

The broker points to shifting consumer behaviour, with younger drinkers consuming less alcohol than older generations. That’s a trend hitting the key US and China markets hardest.

Within alcohol, wine continues to lag spirits and ready-to-drink categories. UBS also warned that the once-lucrative China market may now be oversupplied with Penfolds.

The post How low can this ASX 200 share go after losing 53%? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.