The post Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Harvey Norman. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Aub Group and HomeCo Daily Needs REIT. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX energy stocks could benefit from the Otway exploration drilling campaign currently underway. But there is one energy stock in particular that Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) analysts think has a “low risk upside worth chasing”.

What is the Otway basin drilling campaign?

The Otway Basin drilling campaign is an exploration plan to find natural gas in the Otway Basin offshore of Victoria. The project is owned and  run by ConocoPhillips Australia which holds 51% of the joint-venture project. 

The other joint-venture partners are Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC), which owns 29%, and 3D Energi, which owns 20%.

In a recent note to investors, Macquarie analysts note that for the ConocoPhillips discovery (Essington-1, first of 2 wells), Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) or Amplitude Energy Ltd (ASX: AEL) could process this gas. 

Amplitude Energy is expected to then drill at the Elanora/Isabella-ST exploration sites early next year. It is then expected to pass the rig to Beach Energy for Thylacine well intervention and to stabilise production. The plan is to backfill the Athena Gas Plant and supply gas to southeast Australia.

Which ASX energy stock has the best upside potential?

Macquarie brokers have an outperform rating on Amplitude Energy shares and a $3.90 target price. At the time of writing Amplitude Energy shares are trading at $2.74 a piece. This target price therefore represents a potential 42.3% upside for investors over the next 12 months.

Macquarie analysts said it thinks there is a “high probability exploration to drive brownfield growth (Otway), operational excellence (Orbost), renegade mindset”.

The broker added: “With Orbost now performing consistently, and Otway partner established (OG Energy 50%), AEL is our top pick for investors seeking exposure to the tight East Coast gas market.”

Macquarie explained that the drilling campaign is costly, but very likely to unlock sufficient gas for the Athena gas plant. The plant currently runs at around 10% of capacity.

Our FY26e/FY27e EPS are +3%/+3% on stronger Orbost production & lower finance costs, +11%/+14% in FY28e/29e on stronger Athena production response as new wells brought on. TP +2% to $3.90/share, slightly higher ECSP+ production rates.

What’s the broker’s outlook for Beach Energy?

By comparison, the broker has an underperform rating on Beach Energy shares and a 80 cent target price. That’s a potential 32.8% downside from the ASX energy company’s current $1.19 per share trading price.

Macquarie analysts said the company’s portfolio is overvalued and lacks control of key assets. 

More Waitsia delay pushes production to low end of FY26e guide (MRE 20.3MMboe vs 19.7-22.0). Our FY26e EPS -29% on higher tariffs & tolls, further Waitsia start-up delays, higher provision for gas balancing (w/Mitsui) and higher exploration write-off (Hercules). Our EPS are -26%/-23% in FY27e/FY28e on higher costs (tariffs & tolls), and higher finance costs (no more capitalising of interest).

The post This surging ASX energy stock is tipped to storm another 42% higher appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX lithium share Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) is 22 cents apiece on Tuesday, down 3.5%.

Lithium stocks have recently stormed higher on the back of rising commodity prices.

Analysts at Trading Economics said the lithium carbonate price closed at a 17-month high of US$13,348 per tonne overnight.

The Spodumene Concentrate Index (CIF China) Price closed at US$1,184 per tonne, up about 26% over the past month.

The battery-grade lithium hydroxide price finished at US$10,301 per tonne, up 9% over the month.

Analysts said rising global demand for batteries and power infrastructure is pushing commodity prices higher.

In their latest update, the analysts said:

Top lithium consumer China stated it would double EV charging capacity to 180 gigawatts by 2027signaled, supporting lithium-rich energy storage systems with compensation mechanisms for power storage infrastructure.

Also, output of new energy vehicles in China rose by 33.1% in the first ten months of the year, with October sales reflecting 51.6% of the market share, the first majority for new energy vehicles on record.

Consequently, major producer Ganfeng signaled they expect lithium demand to grow by 30% next year.

On the supply front, CATL‘s Jiangxi mine will reopen after the Chinese Government approved its restart following a suspension.

Jiangxi provides 3% of the world’s lithium supply.

The analysts added:

… markets continued to assess the magnitude of intervention that Beijing will enforce due to its anti-involution initiative.

China’s anti-involution strategy seeks to avoid excess capacity and destructive price competition.

This all bodes well for the value of ASX lithium shares.

$5,000 in Core Lithium shares a month ago

Core Lithium shares closed at 12.75 cents apiece on 3 November.

If you had put $5,000 into Core Lithium, then it would have bought you 39,215 shares.

That would have been a good buy given the ASX lithium share ripped to a 52-week high of 26.5 cents on 20 November.

The stock has retraced a bit since then to be 22 cents at the time of writing.

That means your $5,000 shareholding is now worth $8,627.30.

What’s the latest news from Core Lithium?

Core Lithium held its annual general meeting on 14 November.

Chair Greg English said:

… there have been some recent signs of improvement in sentiment towards lithium which we would like to see continue.

Core Lithium also released a revised restart plan and ore reserve estimate for Grants at its flagship Finniss Project last month.

Finniss was put into care and maintenance in early 2024 due to weak lithium prices.

English said:

Delivery of the Restart Study outcomes will make Finniss more insulated from the lithium price cycle.

Core Lithium said restarting Finniss will rely on new financial partnerships, which the company is working on now.

The miner says it would be able to produce first ore at Finniss within one month of reopening under the restart plan.

Core Lithium raised its ore reserve estimate for Grants by 33% to 1.53Mt at 1.42% Li2O.

Should you buy this ASX lithium share?

Last week, Goldman Sachs reiterated its hold rating on Core Lithium shares.

The broker expects the ASX lithium share to retreat. Its 12-month price target range is 7 to 14 cents per share.

At the same time, Ord Minnett upgraded its rating on the ASX lithium share to buy with a price target of 23 cents.

The post $5,000 in this ASX lithium share just one month ago would be worth $8,627 today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Core Lithium. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Analysts are divided about the value of shares in Greatland Resources Ltd (ASX: GGP), after the company this week announced the outcome of a prefeasibility study at its Havieron project in Western Australia this week.

Greatland on Monday said the PFS had confirmed Havieron’s “pathway to a world-class, long-life, lowest-quartile cost Australian gold-copper mine, leveraging existing Telfer infrastructure”.  

Path to new mine clear

Greatland bought the operating Telfer mine from Newmont (ASX: NEM) in late 2024, having earlier discovered the nearby Havieron deposit in 2018, which it developed as a joint venture with Newcrest and then Newmont, before acquiring the project outright also in 2024.

The company said in a release to the ASX on Monday that Havieron was expected to generate steady state pre-tax cash flow of $739 million per year, and would aim to produce 266,000 ounces of gold per year.

The company expected to produce the first gold from the mine about two and a half years after making a final investment decision on the project, which would cost $1.065 billion to bring into production. The initial mine life has been estimated at 17 years.

Analysts divided on share price targets

The teams at Jarden and Macquarie have run the ruler over this week’s announcement, and have come up with very different results.

Macquarie has an outperform rating on Greatland shares, and a 12-month price target of $10.50, for a 39.1% return from current levels.

The Macquarie analysts said the release this week beat consensus estimates for production costs at Havieron and the speed at which it would ramp up to steady state production.

They went on to say:

We think further upside to Havieron could be revealed in time, as Greatland explores Telfer extensions and integration.

The team at Jarden were not so convinced however, saying the base case outcomes for the Havieron study were below their estimates.

The Jarden analysts explained that they also had doubts around the time it would take to permit the project.

So, what were the key differences versus our ingoing forecasts that caused the decline in valuation? We remain cautious over the Greatland permitting timelines (which appear aspirational in our view), and have pushed out first production into FY29.

The Jarden team said the prefeasibility study largely confirmed that Havieron was a “high quality project”, and that the “abundant” cash generation from Telfer had largely derisked its development program.

But they believe Telfer will shortly deplete its high grade or stockpiles, increasing the challenge of keeping its mills operating at full strength.

The Jarden analysts have a price target of just $5 on Greatland shares, which would be a 39.9% decline from Monday’s closing price of $8.32.

The post Analysts split on whether this gold stock will go up – or down – 40% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The ASX small-cap stock Gentrack Group Ltd (ASX: GTK) may not be a big business but it looks like it has large potential.

It offers software for both utility businesses and airports. Some of its clients include Engie, EON, Amber, Melbourne Airport, Sydney Airport, London Gatwick Airport, JFK Airport, Edinburgh Airport, Brisbane Airport, Seattle-Tacoma Airport and Launceston Airport.

As a software provider for essential businesses, I think it has a largely defensive earnings base, with good prospects for further growth. As long as it continues investing in its software to ensure it maintains and grows its customer base, then the future looks bright for the company.

Better valuation

While the Gentrack share price has jumped in the last few weeks, it’s still down by around 30% over the past year, as the chart below shows.

I think the recent jump of the Gentrack share price is a good sign that the market is encouraged by what the business recently reported. But, it’s still a lot cheaper than it was a year ago.

As the saying goes, it’s better to ‘buy low’. With Gentrack’s share price still a lot lower, I think the ASX small-cap stock looks much more appealing, particularly with the company’s outlook for earnings growth.

Strong earnings growth outlook

The company’s FY25 result was solid, with 7.9% revenue growth (and 13% recurring revenue growth), 18% operating profit (EBITDA) growth and 119% net profit after tax (NPAT) growth. However, some of the net profit growth was due to a $3.2 million benefit from a positive change in foreign exchange rates.  

In the utilities segment, it’s expecting its software and support revenue to grow around 10% in FY26 after several recent go-lives and others “are expected”. It said it’s moving towards its medium-term growth target of more than 15%. Gentrack said its pipeline has matured considerably.

On the airport side of things, for FY26 it has “high visibility” to match FY25’s growth of 15% and a “strong pipeline that could see that accelerate”.

In the ASX small-cap stock’s outlook statement for FY26, the business wrote:

Based on the scale and maturity of our pipeline we are confident that revenue growth will be higher in FY26 than in FY25, but it is too early to provide further guidance.

With strong and growing engagement across EMEA and APAC, our proven track record and the market potential, we remain confident of our mid-term guidance of growing revenue more than 15% CAGR and an EBITDA margin of 15-20% after expensing all development costs.

I think the ASX small-cap stock is definitely one to watch for the foreseeable future.

The post Why I think this ASX small-cap stock is a bargain at $9! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Gentrack Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Gentrack Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

As Australia enters the so-called ‘third era’ of commerce, Agentic commerce, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) analysts have done a deep dive into how the new trend could disrupt the traditional retail sector and their ASX shares.

Is Agentic commerce going to replace the traditional ways consumers in Australia shop? Or is it just a new way for shoppers to discover new products?

What is Agentic commerce and how does it work?

Agentic commerce is a new method of online shopping where autonomous AI agents handle the entire purchase process for the customer. 

For example, a customer might ask the AI agent to find a product, such as a women’s outfit for a summer event, and the agent will locate suitable items at Universal Store Holdings Ltd (ASX: UNI) and assist in making the purchase and organising delivery.

Or, a customer could ask for a certain-sized coffee table to fit in a specific space, and the AI agent can assist in locating suitable options from ASX retail companies like Temple & Webster Ltd (ASX: TPW), Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK), and Harvey Norman Ltd (ASX: HVN), make comparisons, and facilitate the purchase and shipping.

Unlike current AI tools that can offer assistance, Agentic commerce is an evolving model of shopping where autonomous AI agents act on behalf of consumers to handle the buying process with minimal human interaction.

How can it disrupt the traditional ASX retail sector?

Macquarie analysts explain that the internet and e-commerce have already enabled mass product discovery. However, Agentic search-powered discovery helps shoppers find what they want even if they cannot articulate exactly what. 

“This contrasts with traditional search which matches words. Agentic search matches meaning using neural embeddings to understand context. Moreover, it makes browsing conversational and natural, and the future of retail discovery,” Macquarie said.

Macquarie added: “The expectation is that AI is disruptive to traditional omni-channel retail as well as pure play verticals and marketplaces and could re-accelerate e-commerce growth because of better personalisation, discovery and curation.”

Macquarie also pointed out that traditional retail was built around stores, their merchandise offer, and proposition. Marketers then segmented shopping into consumption occasions and trip types. 

While this is still relevant, Agentic commerce is responsive to digital cues rather than physical or online product displays.

“In our opinion Agentic commerce will have a more significant impact on missions/trips than occasions. We expect the most disrupted missions will be Discover and Inspire where information demands are high and loyalty low. Discover missions will likely include expensive buyers (technology) and inspirational (beauty). Boring and cheap (essentials/staples) fit the Find mission and considered less contestable. Fun categories (sport) will fit the Discover mission,” Macquarie said.

The post Agentic commerce could disrupt the traditional ASX retail sector: Here’s why appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Harvey Norman and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nick Scali, Temple & Webster Group, and Universal Store. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Knowing which ASX shares to avoid can be just as important as knowing which ones to buy if you want to maximise your returns.

With that in mind, it could be worth hearing what analysts are saying about the popular ASX shares listed below before you buy them.

Here are three popular ASX shares that have been named as sells, courtesy of The Bull:

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

The team at Medallion Financial Group thinks that Australia’s largest bank is still overvalued despite recent weakness. It highlights its lofty price to earnings ratio, modest dividend yield, and premium valuation as reasons to be cautious. It said:

While the CBA remains a solid business over the long term, the share price looks expensive at current levels. Recently trading on a price/earnings ratio of about 25 times and a modest dividend yield of about 3.15 per cent, its valuation sits well above global peers. Also, the company recently suffered its worst sell-off in four years following the release of first quarter results in fiscal year 2026, which flagged higher operating costs, a weaker net interest margin (NIM) and a lower-than-expected common equity tier 1 capital ratio of 11.8 per cent, which is still above the Australia Prudential Regulation Authority minimum of 10.25 per cent.

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO)

Over at Red Leaf Securities, its analysts aren’t buying this counter drone technology company’s shares despite their crash last month. Red Lead has concerns that its shares could remain under pressure in the near term. It explains:

The company provides artificial intelligence based platforms for protection against advanced threats, such as drones and autonomous systems. The stock plunged after disclosures to the ASX revealed DRO directors had been selling their holdings. The company announced that November contracts were inadvertently marked as new ones rather than revised contracts due to an administrative error. In our view, such an error raises governance and confidence concerns among investors. The shares have fallen from $6.60 on October 9 to trade at $1.997 on November 27. We believe the shares will remain under pressure.

Monash IVF Group Ltd (ASX: MVF)

Finally, Red Leaf Securities also rates this fertility treatment company as sell.

It thinks that investors should be taking profit following a strong gain which was driven by a takeover proposal, which has since been rejected. It said:

MVF is a fertility services company. The company recently rejected a takeover offer of $312 million from a consortium comprising Genesis Capital at 80 cents a share. The Monash board unanimously determined that the takeover proposal materially undervalued Monash and was not in the best interests of company shareholders as a whole. Monash shares soared on news of the takeover proposal and closed at 88 cents on November 24. Prior to the proposal, Monash shares had been struggling this year after two embryo mix ups at its clinics in Melbourne and Brisbane negatively impacted its reputation. We suggest investors take advantage of the premium built into the takeover proposal and sell some stock. The shares were trading at 85.7 cents on November 27.

The post Analysts rate CBA and these popular ASX shares as sells appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.