The BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ) is one of the most popular exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the ASX. In fact, according to the latest data, it is the sixth-most popular ETF for Australian investors, with close to $8 billion in assets under management.

NDQ is a fine ETF to be sure, and one that I used to own myself. It has delivered some shockingly high growth numbers in recent years to boot. So today, let’s discuss two reasons why you might want to buy the Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF, and one reason not to.

2 reasons to buy the ASX’s NDQ ETF

An investment in some of the world’s best stocks

The Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF simply represents an investment in some of the world’s best companies. It is technically an index fund, holding the largest non-financial shares on the American NASDAQ stock exchange. The Nasdaq is the exchange that is famous for housing most of the top tech stocks in the US.

It counts Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Tesla and Amazon – the Magnificent 7 – as its largest holdings for one. But it also houses plenty of other high-performing stocks, ranging from Netflix, Texas Instruments and Broadcom to Costco, Shopify and Booking Holdings.

It’s a cross-section of the best tech companies the US has to offer. Given that the ASX is relatively light when it comes to tech, this can be particularly useful, not to mention lucrative, for Australian investors.

NDQ’s ASX performance

As we touched on earlier, the ASX’s NDQ fund has been an exceptional investment to have owned in recent years. As of 31 October, this fund has returned an average of 30.6% per annum over three years, and 20.4% per annum over the past five.

Since its May 2015  inception, NDQ unitholders have enjoyed an average return of 20.6% per annum.

Those are extraordinary numbers. Whilst past performance is never a guarantee of future results, no one can argue that NDQ’s holdings haven’t proven exceptionally gifted at rewarding shareholders up to this point.

So why not buy this ETF?

At first, and second glance, this ETF looks like a screaming buy for any ASX investor who doesn’t have exposure to US tech stocks. Or just those who like ot invest in fast-growing stocks.

However, there is one reason why I think some ASX investors might want to look for alternatives. It’s the price. NDQ is a high-quality ETF. But it charges a commensurate price. Investors pay a not-insignificant 0.48% per annum to have their money tied up in this fund.

Now, if you want this Nasdaq-specific exposure on the ASX, NDQ is basically your only choice. But it is not if you jump over to the US markets themselves.

These days, most ASX brokers offer cheap access to buying US stocks.

If you are willing to do that, you can get easy exposure to the Nasdaq for a vastly lower price compared to the ASX’s NDQ. A popular choice is the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ), which charges less than half of what NDQ does at just 0.2% per annum.

I myself go with the Schwab US Large-Cap Growth ETF (NYSE: SCHG). Although this ETF is not a Nasdaq-tracking index fund, it is very similar in its tech exposure, and shares all of NDQ’s top holdings. I chose it for the minuscule management fee of 0.04% per annum.

Now, it’s understandable that many ASX investors might want to keep things as simple as possible and stick with the ASX’s NDQ ETF for their US tech exposure. And, judging by what the past ten years have delivered, that’s probably not a bad way to go.

The post 2 reasons to buy the BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF (NDQ), and 1 not to appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Costco Wholesale, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Netflix, and Schwab Strategic Trust – Schwab U.s. Large-Cap Growth ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, Booking Holdings, Costco Wholesale, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, Shopify, Tesla, and Texas Instruments. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Broadcom and has recommended the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Booking Holdings, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, and Shopify. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in AUB Group Ltd (ASX: AUB) took a significant tumble this week after the company announced that takeover talks with Danish private equity company EQT and CVC Asia Pacific had fallen through.

The company was forced to reveal that a potential deal was in the works last month, when the Australian Financial Review published an article stating that talks were ongoing.

AUB informed the ASX at the time that discussions about a potential buyout commenced on September 13, when EQT initially offered $43 per share, which was subsequently increased to $45 per share.

The $45 potential offer was a massive 40.2% premium to AUB’s previous closing price, and the stock naturally traded higher on the news.

Bidders walk away

AUB cautioned its shareholders at the time that there was no guarantee a formal bid for the company would arise; however, on Monday, it revealed that talks had ceased.

As AUB said on Monday:

The consortium has advised that it does not intent to proceed with a binding proposal at a price of $45 per share. Accordingly the parties have agreed to terminate discussions. The AUB board believes that a price of $45 per share appropriately values AUB in the current market environment.

The company’s Managing Director, Michael Emmett, said on Monday that the company continued to “deliver robust performance, underpinned by a clear strategy and disciplined execution”.

He added:

The recent due diligence process, while demanding, has reaffirmed our confidence in our improvement initiatives and long-term growth prospects. Now that discussions with the consortium have ended, our board and management team are full focussed on advancing our portfolio of organic growth initiatives and acquisition opportunities. We remain confident in AUB Group’s forecast FY26 financial performance and see significant opportunities to grow profits in FY27 and beyond.

The AUB share price fell sharply when the news was announced this week, dropping from $37.25 at Friday’s close to $30.63 on Monday.

Shares cheap at these levels

But the team at Jarden for one say this creates a compelling buying opportunity.

The Jarden team say the prospects for further merger and acquisition activity in the Australian insurance sector remain high, and they also like AUB on a standalone basis.

As they said in a note to clients:

Despite the deal failing to proceed, we think prospects for M&A in the domestic broker sector are likely to remain elevated. Australian broking consolidation has intensified in recent years … With this elevated level of sector corporate activity, we think AUB would remain well-positioned to be a participant given its scale as Australia’s second largest broker, and proven track record of value-accretive acquisitions.

And while the failure of the takeover might have been disappointing for shareholders, Jarden’s target price of $37.80 per AUB share remains well above current levels.

Combined with the company’s dividend yield, the Jarden team are forecasting a total shareholder return over 12 months of 26.8%.

As they said:

We see the share price reaction as a short-term reset in market expectations rather than any change in fundamentals. The underlying business outlook remains supportive despite the moderating premium rate cycle. AUB appears confident on both the organic growth outlook, as well as the potential for further acquisitions.

AUB is an S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) company comprised of a group of retail and wholesale insurance brokers and underwriting agencies, which operates in about 580 locations globally, according to its website.

The company was founded in 1985 and now serves approximately one million clients, managing over $11 billion in insurance premiums.

AUB was valued at $3.57 billion at the close of trade on Monday.

The post This insurance company is a compelling buy, despite a takeover falling through, analysts say appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Aub Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares are 0.53% higher at the time of writing in Tuesday lunchtime trade, at $34.38 a piece. Over the past month the bank’s shares have fallen 6.99% and they’re now 20.25% higher for the year-to-date.

While the major bank’s share price has been mostly positive over the past year, analysts at Macquarie think ANZ is showing early signs of revenue underperformance.

Here’s what the broker had to say in a recent note to investors.

Headwinds ahead for ANZ shares

Overall, analysts said that business credit remains strong, at around 9% annualised and on a three-month rolling rate. This is primarily driven by agriculture and real estate credit growth. 

Meanwhile, investor mortgage growth continues to surge, annualising at over 10%, the highest level since 2015. 

Term deposit costs are also favorable. With the banks focusing their competition on savings deposits, term deposits have become less competitive. 

But when it comes to winners and losers among the bunch of Australian banks, ANZ falls short. 

“ANZ is showing early signs of revenue underperformance, lagging behind peers in mortgage (~0.5x), business (~0x) and deposit growth,” Macquarie analysts said in the investor note.

While still early, and consistent with ANZ’s guidance for below system mortgage growth in 2026, it could suggest ANZ’s strategy reset is weighing on underlying performance.

Elsewhere, the broker said Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) is arguably the best performer, gaining share in all segments. Meanwhile National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) see strong growth in their business lending. 

Mortgage credit growth remains negative for regional banks, with Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) shrinking 5-9% over the three-month period. The broker notes that Bank of Queensland Ltd (ASX: BOQ) has continued to grow its business credit by around 10%.

What’s Macquarie’s outlook for the bank sector?

The broker said that pre-provision earnings trends were generally better across the banks. It added that recent data has been incrementally positive, including better credit growth and lower funding costs (although this has been partly offset by deposit switching), which suggests a potential upside risk to FY26 consensus earnings. 

ANZ and NAB remain our preferred exposures in the sector; however, if ANZ’s balance sheet underperformance continues, it could suggest risk to consensus revenue expectations.

Macquarie has a neutral rating on ANZ shares with a target price of $35.00. At the time of writing this implies a potential 1.8% upside for investors over the next 12 months.

The post ANZ shares are lagging the other big banks: Here’s why appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bendigo And Adelaide Bank. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to record a small gain. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is up 0.3% to 8,591 points.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here’s why they are falling:

Catapult Sports Ltd (ASX: CAT)

The Catapult Sports share price is down 9% to $4.68. This is despite there being no news out of the sports technology company. However, it is worth noting that Japanese giant Fujitsu made an announcement yesterday which could potentially have some impact on Catapult’s business. It has launched the Fujitsu Accelerator Program for SPORTS, which is “a global partner co-creation program aimed at fostering new innovation in the sports sector.” One area of focus will be “data analysis and collection for team sports.”

Collins Foods Ltd (ASX: CKF)

The Collins Foods share price is down 1.5% to $11.40. This follows the release of the KFC restaurant operator’s half year results for FY 2026 this morning. Although Collins Foods delivered strong profit growth and upgraded its guidance, it wasn’t enough for some investors. It seems that this and more were already priced in given its strong share price gain in 2025. Year to date, the Collins Foods share price remains up approximately 55%.

Guzman Y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG)

The Guzman Y Gomez share price is down almost 4% to $22.36. This burrito seller’s shares have been under significant selling pressure this year. So much so, they are now down by approximately 45% since the start of the year. Valuation concerns and disappointing progress in the US market have weighed heavily on investor sentiment. It is also worth noting that Guzman Y Gomez is one of the most shorted ASX shares at present. At the last count, the company had 12.3% of its shares held short.

Pantoro Gold Ltd (ASX: PNR)

The Pantoro Gold share price is down 12% to $4.75. This has been driven by news that one of its largest shareholders has sold down its holding. This morning, the gold miner advised that Tulla Resources has sold 25.8 million shares in the company. Commenting on the sale, non-executive director and associate of Tulla Resources, Mark Maloney, said: “Tulla Resources has undertaken this sale as part of a strategy to return capital to its Principals and to free funding for its other resource projects. Tulla Resources retains a significant shareholding in Pantoro Gold, representing 6.11% of the register and is committed to the long-term success of the Company. At this time, we have no intention to sell any further shares. I will continue as a non-executive director and remain strongly supportive of the Company’s growth strategy and future.”

The post Why Catapult, Collins Foods, Guzman Y Gomez, and Pantoro shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Collins Foods. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Collins Foods. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) shares are pushing higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) rare earths miner closed yesterday trading for $14.70. During the Tuesday lunch hour, shares are swapping hands for $15.07 apiece, up 2.5%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.2% at this same time.

With today’s intraday gains factored in, Lynas Rare Earths shares are now up a whopping 130.6% year to date.

Lynas has been a direct beneficiary as demand for the critical rare earth elements – Neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr) – it produces soars as Western nations seek to end China’s stranglehold on rare earths supplies.

Both elements are crucial in the production of everything from smartphones to wind turbines to electric vehicles, alongside numerous military applications.

Lynas Rare Earths shares well-placed for more outsized gains

Looking to the year ahead, the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) expect more outperformance from the ASX 200 stock.

That’s despite the significant power disruptions Lynas reported on 25 November, which negatively impacted production at its Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility in Western Australia.

Management advised on the day that the power disruptions will also affect the production of finished goods at Lynas’ Malaysian facility.

Following the 25 November power issues, Macquarie noted:

While the exact impact has not been disclosed, we note that the operation was running in batch production mode prior to these power issues. LYC is working with the WA government to improve grid stability and is also evaluating off-grid solutions.

And the broker doesn’t expect investors will see a materially negative impact on Lynas Rare Earths shares.

Macquarie said:

The Kalgoorlie disruption coincides with a planned major shutdown at the cracking and leaching facility in Malaysia, leading to production losses in 2QFY26. The company expects to lose approximately one month of output but plans to maintain sales through inventory drawdown.

We estimate NdPr production of 1.7kt in the December quarter, followed by output recovery in 2HFY26.

Noting that it expects the NdPr market to remain tight, the broker said, “We forecast LYC to sell 9kt of NdPr in FY26, supported by its ~7ktpa Malaysian facility and additional volumes from Kalgoorlie.”

Connecting the dots, Macquarie maintained its outperformance rating on Lynas Rare Earths shares with a $17.00 12-month price target. That’s almost 13% above current levels.

“We expect the NdPr market to remain tight fundamentally, driven by solid demand and supply disruptions. LYC remains the largest ex-China REE producer,” Macquarie concluded.

The post Up 131% in 2025, why Macquarie expects Lynas Rare Earths shares to keep outperforming in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in biotechnology company Epiminder Ltd (ASX: EPI) got off to a less-than-stellar start on the ASX this week, with shareholders in the initial public offering already incurring decent losses.

The company’s shares listed on Monday and closed the day at $1.31, well below the IPO price of $1.50. The stock fell a further 5.4% on Tuesday morning to be changing hands for $1.24 apiece.

Positive developments fail to bolster shares

This was despite the company announcing an update to the US Medicare status of its Minder system, with the company saying the reimbursement level for the device would be set at US$27,700.

As the company told the ASX on Monday:

The company’s Minder device is the first and only US FDA-authorised implanted continuous EEG monitoring systems designed for monitoring of brain activity for epilepsy. Epiminder aims to use its innovative solution to assist patients and healthcare professionals in the management of drug-resistant epilepsy. It is seeking to fulfill a large and unmet addressable market. With approximately 1.1 million adults with drug-resistant epilepsy in the US alone.

The company said on Monday that in late November, it onboarded its first “Detect program partner”, and was targeting up to 25 sites in the US under its Detect program “to build clinical utility evidence”.

The company is also pleased to advise that it recently received the final ruling in relation to US Medicare reimbursement levels for the implantation of the Minder Device for 2026. The final US Medicare reimbursement level for 2026 has been set at approximately US$27,700, having previously been set on a preliminary basis at approximately US$22,500.

Epiminder said it was also eligible for other Medicare payments due to its device being classed as a “breakthrough” device.

Listing to drive commercialisation

The company raised $125 million in its IPO, with Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH) taking up $10 million in new shares under the offer.

In addition to the stake it already owned, Cochlear was set to own 36% of the company on listing.

Epiminder said in its prospectus that it would use the money raised to progress its commercialisation plans.

The company is aiming to formally launch its G0 Minder system in the US in the first half of 2026, “undertaking a phased commercial rollout into leading epilepsy centres as part of a program, titled Detect, to demonstrate the clinical utility of the system”, it said.

The company’s chair, Philip Binns, said in the prospectus that the market for its device was worth an estimated US$1.1 billion annually in the US alone.      

The post Cochlear-aligned biotech off to a lacklustre start on the ASX appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Cochlear. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Cochlear. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is in the green on Tuesday, up 0.08% to 8,873.8 points.

Morgans has updated its ratings and 12-month price targets on three ASX agriculture shares following their FY25 reports.

Let’s take a look.

Nufarm Ltd (ASX: NUF) 

Nufarm is an agricultural chemical and seed-technology company with clients all over the world.

The Nufarm share price is $2.39, down 2.85% today and down 34% in the year to date.

Morgans has a buy rating on Nufarm shares with a 12-month price target of $3.20 following the company’s FY25 results.

The broker commented:

While NUF’s FY25 result was weak, it was slightly above guidance.

A solid Crop Protection result was overshadowed by a poor Seed Technologies performance. Gearing was far too high at 2.7x, however it was better than feared. Outlook comments were upbeat.

In FY26, material earnings growth and a reduction in leverage ratios is expected. We have upgraded our forecasts. Now that there is certainty on Seed Technologies future, industry operating conditions have improved and there is a clear pathway to deleveraging the balance sheet, we upgrade NUF to a Buy recommendation and A$3.20 price target.

Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD)

Elders supplies all types of farming products, as well as advisory, financial, and real estate services.

The Elders share price is $7.28, up 0.14% on Tuesday and up 1% for 2025.

Recently, the broker retained its buy rating on Elders after the company released its FY25 results.

Morgans says there are many drivers in FY26 that should enable Elders to deliver strong growth.

The broker upgraded its price target on the ASX agriculture share from $8.50 to $8.65.

Morgans commented:

ELD’s FY25 result was in line with its guidance. As was well guided too, the 2H25 was weak due to drought.

Outlook comments were optimistic, the 1Q26 is off to a strong start and FY26 should benefit from a positive rainfall outlook, higher selling prices, acquisitions and the transformation projects.

Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC)

Graincorp offers grain handling, storage and logistics services, as well as trading and marketing. It also processes oilseeds to produce vegetable oils and other food products.

The Graincorp share price is $8.09, up 0.4% today and up 9.6% in the year to date.

Morgans thinks this ASX agriculture share has been oversold following an 8.4% decline over the past month.

The broker maintained an accumulate rating on Graincorp shares with a new price target of $9.05 following the company’s FY25 results.

Morgans said:

While it can be argued that the FY25 P&L result was lower quality due to one-offs, operating cashflow was materially stronger than expected, underpinning GNC’s strong core cash position.

This allowed the company to reward shareholders with an attractive final dividend.

In line with the recent outlook commentary from its international peers, GNC said that the margin environment will likely remain subdued in FY26. Consensus estimates were therefore too high.

Importantly, payments to the insurer will no longer occur in big crop years, allowing GNC’s strong fixed cost leverage to return when crop production issues around the world ultimately eventuate.

The post 3 ASX agriculture shares just re-rated by experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Elders. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) shares are $7.67, down 0.2% while the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 0.4%.

As the end of the year draws near, ASX companies are releasing their corporate calendars for the new year.

Get your diaries out, here are the key dates to note for 2026.

When will IAG shares pay dividends in 2026?

Let’s start with the most important dates for us investors: the dividend announcements.

IAG will release its 1H FY26 results and announce its interim dividend on 12 February.

The ex-dividend date for the interim IAG dividend will be 17 February.

The record date will be 18 February.

If you’d prefer not to receive your dividend as cash and instead reinvest in more IAG shares via the dividend reinvestment plan (DRP), you’ll need to lodge your DRP election by 5pm AEST on 19 February.

IAG will pay the interim dividend to shareholders on 13 March.

The next big announcement will be the FY26 full-year results and final dividend on 13 August.

The ex-dividend date for the final dividend will be 24 August.

The record date will be 25 August, and your DRP election must be lodged by 5pm on 26 August.

IAG will pay the final dividend to investors on 28 September.

The annual general meeting is scheduled for 22 October.

What’s the latest news from the insurance giant?

IAG issued a statement regarding major weather events in Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria on 10 November.

Managing Director and CEO Nick Hawkins said:

IAG has received more than 10,000 claims across its brands which includes approximately 5,800 from RACQ Insurance (RACQI) customers. The majority of these claims relate to motor and property hail damage.

IAG has activated its Major Event Command Centre and deployed teams of property assessors and partner builders to conduct Make-Safe repairs and help customers across the impacted areas.

Hawkins said the company had a range of reinsurance protections in place to reduce the financial impact of natural hazards.

… in relation to IAG’s owned and partner brands in Australia and New Zealand, excluding RACQI, IAG has long-term reinsurance arrangements that provide significant downside protection against natural peril events exceeding the full year non-RACQI perils allowance of $1,316 million.

In combination with whole-of-account quota share arrangements, IAG has approximately $1 billion of downside protection for non-RACQI natural perils costs.

What are the experts saying about IAG shares?

Macquarie has a neutral rating on IAG shares and a 12-month price target of $9.10.

UBS is more ambitious with a buy rating on IAG shares and a price target of $9.25.

The post Own IAG shares? Here are the dividend dates for 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Big returns could be on the cards for buyers of PEXA Group Ltd (ASX: PXA) shares.

That’s the view of analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), which are feeling positive about this ASX tech stock.

What is the broker saying?

Macquarie has been looking at recent housing market data that could impact this property settlements technology company.

It highlights that settlement activity has been growing at a solid rate in recent months, albeit with NSW volumes softening in November. The broker said:

NSW settlement activity was up +4.4% on pcp in Nov-25, a deterioration vs Oct-25 (+17.6%) and Sep-25 (+12.9%), while QLD activity in Oct-25 (latest available) was up +8.2% on pcp ahead of Sep-25 (+3.8%). By applying 75/25% weighting to NSW and QLD data (reflecting the number of dwellings in NSW/VIC vs QLD), total estimated national activity was up +15.5% in Oct-25, the strongest month of activity in 18 months. Our weighted average index is >95% correlated with PXA reported market volumes and is tracking at +7.1% YTD26 vs MRE +2.8% in 1H26E.

Transfer activity (on a weighted avg basis) was up +16.6% in Oct-25, the strongest month since Jul-24 (+19.4%). Refinancing activity remains robust at +15.1% in Oct-25, albeit weaker than the prior month at +24.9% and the last 6 months at +21.6%.

Big potential returns

In light of the above, Macquarie remains positive on this ASX tech stock and believes it is positioned to achieve its earnings estimates in FY 2026.

According to the note, the broker is forecasting revenue of $426.1 million and an adjusted net profit of $13.8 million in FY 2026, and then an increase to $470.8 million and $25.4 million, respectively, in FY 2027.

As a result, Macquarie has reaffirmed its outperform rating and $19.10 price target on Pexa’s shares.

Based on its current share price of $14.31, this implies potential upside of almost 35% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its outperform recommendation, the broker said:

Reiterate Outperform. Formal commitment from additional Tier-1 lenders is likely to incentivise the other four Tier-1 lenders to onboard with PXA quickly, driving rapid market share gains.

Valuation: Our TP of $19.10 remains unchanged and is based on the blended average of DCF, PE Relative and SOTP valuations. Catalysts: Tier-1 lender commitments, Digital strategic review, NatWest onboarding 2H26, IPART pricing review 2H26.

The post Macquarie tips almost 35% upside for Pexa shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and PEXA Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and PEXA Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.