Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares are drifting lower on Tuesday, down 0.89% to $175.79 at the time of writing.

The move is fairly modest compared with the stock’s performance over the past year.

Rio Tinto shares are up almost 20% in 2026 and around 49% over the past 12 months. The stock also traded as high as $182.70 late last month, putting it close to its 52-week high.

So, investors have had plenty to cheer about.

But there’s a new development out of China that could be worth keeping an eye on.

China is pushing harder on iron ore

According to The Australian, China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) has told some steel mills to stop buying Rio Tinto’s flagship Pilbara Blend while contract negotiations continue.

CMRG has been negotiating iron ore purchases on behalf of China since 2022, with the aim of using the country’s huge buying power to push for better prices and terms.

And Rio Tinto isn’t the first miner to feel the pressure. BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) only reached a deal with CMRG in April after around 7 months of negotiations, while Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) has also faced tougher talks with the state-backed buyer.

Iron ore is still Rio Tinto’s biggest earnings contributor, and China buys a huge amount of what it produces. If the dispute drags on and Chinese mills continue holding back purchases, it could eventually start weighing on sales volumes or the prices Rio Tinto receives.

At this stage, there is no suggestion it will get that far, but it’s still something investors will want to follow closely.

Copper is closing the gap

The good news is the business is becoming much more balanced.

In the first-half of 2026, iron ore generated US$6.8 billion of EBITDA. Copper was close behind at US$5.7 billion, while aluminium and lithium contributed another US$3.3 billion.

Copper EBITDA jumped 84% from the first-half of 2025, helped by stronger prices and higher production from the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia.

The overall result was strong too. Underlying EBITDA rose 28% to US$14.8 billion, underlying earnings climbed 43% to US$6.85 billion and free cash flow increased 75% to US$3.8 billion.

Rio Tinto also lifted its interim dividend by 43% to US$3.4 billion.

And then there’s the AI boom

There could also be another source of demand coming from the huge amount of money being spent on AI and data centres.

CEO Simon Trott recently pointed out that the raw materials Rio Tinto produces can make up “up to 70 per cent of the value” of the materials used in a data centre.

That could become a much bigger opportunity, with spending by hyperscalers forecast to approach US$1 trillion next year.

Copper is an obvious beneficiary, but aluminium and lithium could also benefit as more data centres are built and electricity demand continues to grow.

The post Is China about to become a problem for Rio Tinto shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Uranium ASX shares spent two years being talked about, but have only recently started delivering.

The spot price of uranium sits near US$89.50 a pound after touching US$100 in January.

More importantly, the long-term contract price is US$97 a pound, its highest level in more than eighteen years.

Why uranium ASX shares are moving again

Two forces are doing the work.

The first is supply.

Kazatomprom, the world’s largest producer, has delayed its sulphuric acid plant, with commissioning now expected to be somewhere between late 2027 and early 2028.

Utilities have responded by contracting supply as far out as 2034.

The second is demand.

The World Nuclear Association’s fuel report projects that reactor requirements will rise from about 68,920 tonnes of uranium in 2025 to more than 150,000 tonnes by 2040.

The Association was direct about what that implies:

As existing mines face a depletion of resources in the middle of the next decade, the need for new primary uranium supply becomes even more pressing.

With that in mind, here are three ASSX shares that are well-positioned to benefit from this trend.

1. Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN)

Paladin Energy is the only clean producer of the three.

FY26 revenue rose 71% to US$304.3 million and gross profit reached US$52.2 million, against a gross loss a year earlier.

The company’s Langer Heinrich mine produced 4.82 million pounds, at the top of guidance.

The cost was US$43.3 a pound against a realised price of US$70.0.

The company still recorded a net loss of US$9.1 million, against a US$76.5 million loss in FY25.

FY27 guidance points to 5.1 million to 5.6 million pounds at a cost of US$44 to US$48 a pound.

Chief executive Paul Hemburrow said of the results:

We successfully completed the ramp-up of Langer Heinrich Mine in Namibia, delivering annual production of 4.82 million pounds of U3O8 and sales of 4.35 million pounds.

What are the brokers saying? Bell Potter rates Paladin Energy shares a buy with a $14.80 target, while JP Morgan has a sell and a $9.10 target.

2. Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE)

Boss Energy turned its first profit in FY26 and then told the market FY27 would be harder.

Revenue doubled to $151.1 million, and net profit after tax came in at $2.5 million.

Honeymoon produced 1.41 million pounds at an all-in sustaining cost of $61 a pound.

Then came the new feasibility study.

The mineral resource was cut 26% to 20.8 million pounds, and FY27 guidance calls for production of 1.25 to 1.3 million pounds at an all-in sustaining cost of $83 to $92 a pound.

Production down, costs up, and the shares fell 14% on the day.

Chief executive Matt Dusci said:

FY 2027 is a transitional year. It builds the foundations for Honeymoon’s production ramp up and long-term value.

3. Lotus Resources Ltd (ASX: LOT)

Lotus Resources is the highest-risk name here by a wide margin.

The company’s Kayelekera mine in Malawi produced its first yellowcake in August 2025.

It then lost time to a fire in April and an acid supply disruption in June.

In July, the company raised a $138.1 million financing package. That included $60.1 million of equity at 22 cents, a 67% discount to the last traded price.

The shares fell 62% on resumption, and Macquarie cut its price target from $3 to $0.25.

Managing director Greg Bittar is more positive about the company’s prospects:

The Kayelekera operation is now positioned to deliver the final stages of the ramp up through to steady state production and this funding package completes the balance sheet reset.

At 25 cents, the market capitalisation is just $135 million.

Foolish takeaway

The uranium price is doing what the bulls said it would.

That does not mean every miner benefits equally.

Two of these three uranium ASX shares have just downgraded or diluted, which is a timely reminder that a commodity thesis and a company thesis are different things.

The post Uranium is back. Three ASX shares that give you exposure appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended JPMorgan Chase and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) shares have endured a bruising year, but brokers remain confident the sell-off may have gone too far.

After trading between $1.38 and $4.93 over the past 12 months, the ASX buy now, pay later stock faces several potential catalysts, including continued growth in its lucrative US market.

A broader technology sell-off, concerns about competition and slowing growth, geopolitical uncertainty and higher-for-longer interest rates have all weighed on investor sentiment.

But with Zip’s underlying financial performance strengthening, brokers remain remarkably bullish.

Brokers see big upside for Zip shares

TradingView data shows all 12 analysts covering Zip shares currently have either a buy or strong buy rating. The average broker price target of $4.56 implies potential upside of around 95% from the current share price of $2.35 at the time of writing.

The most bullish forecast is even more eye-catching, with one broker tipping Zip shares to reach $6.03. This points to a potential 157% return over the next 12 months.

UBS recently reiterated its buy rating and $4.70 price target, implying roughly 100% upside from the current share price. The broker said Zip’s current-year outlook was better than expected, providing greater confidence in the defensive qualities of its BNPL model during weaker economic conditions.

Why could Zip shares rebound?

Zip’s recent financial performance provides some substance behind the bullish broker forecasts for Zip shares. Its latest FY26 results showed cash EBTDA jumping 57.9%, while revenue rose 24.7% and NPAT increased 45.7%.

Management expects that momentum to continue, forecasting cash EBTDA growth of around 26% in FY27 as the business benefits from further growth and scale.

Perhaps the most important part of the story is where that growth is coming from. Zip has spent the past few years reshaping the business around product development, profitability and international expansion, with the US now firmly at the centre of its strategy.

The US accounted for roughly two-thirds of Zip’s revenue in FY26. Revenue from the market climbed 37.3% in Australian dollar terms and 44.3% in US dollar terms, comfortably ahead of the 4.6% growth recorded across ANZ.

Customer numbers tell a similar story. Active US customers increased 9.3% to 4.65 million, while ANZ customers declined 8% to 1.88 million. Zip expects US total transaction value to grow by more than 30% in FY27.

That makes the US expansion arguably the biggest potential driver of Zip’s earnings and valuation from here.

Could a Nasdaq listing provide another catalyst?

Zip is also pursuing a dual listing on the Nasdaq. A US listing could increase the company’s visibility among American investors and potentially support its ambitions in the world’s largest BNPL market.

For investors in Zip shares, that creates an intriguing setup: a share price that has fallen sharply, accelerating earnings growth, strong broker support and a potentially significant US opportunity.

Of course, the risks haven’t disappeared. Zip remains exposed to consumer spending, competition, regulation and interest rates, while its aggressive US expansion will need to keep delivering.

The post Experts tip battered Zip shares to deliver over 90% returns appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.