• Why the Flight Centre share price travelled 12% higher in March

    Brokers favorite ASX share COVID reopening trade buyA woman standing on a tarmac celebrates a plane lifting off, indicating rising share price in ASX travel companiesBrokers favorite ASX share COVID reopening trade buyA woman standing on a tarmac celebrates a plane lifting off, indicating rising share price in ASX travel companies

    The Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) share price headed north last month, recording a 12% gain.

    This is despite the company navigating through a series of events such as the global pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war.

    At Tuesday’s market close, the travel agent’s shares finished 1.81% higher to $19.74.

    What has happened to Flight Centre shares lately?

    The company has kept a relatively low profile since announcing its half-year results to the market in late February.

    Nonetheless, the Flight Centre share price has continued to track since the beginning of last month.

    This could be due to the company reporting strong top-line growth with a favourable outlook in FY23.

    Flight Centre achieved revenue of $315.7 million in H1 FY22, up 98.1% over the prior corresponding period. This was underpinned by a significant rebound in sales after the Delta variant spike in August/September 2021.

    On the bottom line, Flight Centre reported an underlying loss of $188 million, up 4% year-on-year. Management advised that this was driven partly by the prior corresponding period benefiting from $65 million of government subsidies.

    Furthermore, the company is hoping to achieve profit by this month and a return to pre-COVID TTV [total transaction value] levels in FY23.

    Are Flight Centre shares a buy?

    A couple of brokers weighed in on the Flight Centre share price following the company’s financial scorecard.

    The team at Bell Potter raised its 12-month price target by 2.5% to $20.50 for Flight Centre shares. Based on the current share price, this implies a potential upside of around 4% for investors.

    On the other hand, Goldman Sachs cut its rating on the company’s shares by 4.4% to $19.50 apiece. Its analysts believe that the travel agent share is fully-valued at this point in time.

    Flight Centre share price summary

    It’s been a challenging 12 months for Flight Centre shareholders, despite advancing 10% over the period.

    The company’s share price reached a 52-week high of $25.28 in early October when Australia had managed the pandemic. However, since the outbreak of the Omicron variant, its shares struggled to regain composure until now.

    On valuation grounds, Flight Centre presides a market capitalisation of roughly $3.94 billion, with approximately 199.7 million shares outstanding.

    The post Why the Flight Centre share price travelled 12% higher in March appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Flight Centre right now?

    Before you consider Flight Centre, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Flight Centre wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    *Returns as of January 13th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Sell your ASX shares in these sectors now: expert

    Saxo Australian market strategist Jessica AmirSaxo Australian market strategist Jessica Amir

    It feels like 2022 is definitely different to what ASX investors have experienced the previous few years.

    High inflation is sticking around and interest rates will no longer remain at an almost-zero level. The hot property market is already cooling down.

    So what does this mean for our portfolio of ASX shares?

    Saxo Australian market strategist Jessica Amir has some ideas.

    Get out of these ASX sectors. Now

    In her latest quarterly update, Amir urged investors to consider selling out of real estate investment trusts (REITs) and consumer discretionary stocks.

    Why? Because inflation is affecting building materials as much as groceries and petrol.

    “It’s not just the cost of chicken, beef, oil and bread that are rising – so too is lumber,” said Amir.

    “It’s flowing to builders, squeezing their profits, while higher house and construction prices are being passed to consumers. This has started to cause cracks in the property market.”

    The scary thing is that this is happening even before Australian interest rates have risen.

    “This has big knock-on effects,” said Amir.

    “In Q1, ASX-listed property stocks have collectively fallen 8% and ASX consumer discretionary spending stocks are down 12%.”

    She warned that more losses are expected in these categories in the current quarter and third quarter.

    “Why? Australia’s debt-to-income ratio climbed to 185%,” said Amir.

    “After an expected rate rise in May, mortgage repayments will rise and cost of living will go up, resulting in decreased consumption and a slowdown in property demand.”

    Overseas money to flow into ASX 

    Despite the drag from two sectors, Amir is bullish on the local market.

    She reckons foreign investors will be increasingly attracted to the ASX this year, because of Australia’s dominant resources sector and buoyant economy.

    “Australia boasts one of the highest trade surpluses in the G20 countries – meaning it earns more money [than it spends],” Amir said.

    “It’s also likely to have one of the strongest economic growth rates in the G20 (4.3% GDP) and one of the best employment rates – just 4% unemployment this year and 3.9% next year.”

    Major contributors to Australia’s exports are mineral and agricultural products. Commodity prices are surging, and inflation may push up even further.

    “The iron ore price is up 28% so far this year, oil is also up 36% and wheat is up 41%, as at March 29. Australia’s exports surged to $49.3 billion in January, so you can bet that Australian exports will climb further in March,” said Amir.

    “On top of this, prices are poised to rise over the longer term, amid anaemic supply and roaring demand, further benefiting Australia. This will attract more foreign money.”

    The post Sell your ASX shares in these sectors now: expert appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes could be the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now.

    *Returns as of January 12th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Own ASX renewable energy shares? Here’s why ‘the energy transition will be good for us’

    2 workers standing in front of a wind farm giving a high five.2 workers standing in front of a wind farm giving a high five.

    Markets are rangebound this week with the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) up 156 basis points at 7,527 at the open of trade on Wednesday.

    Whilst commodity sectors continue to book record gains in 2022, renewables have somewhat been left on the backburner (emissions free, of course).

    Investing in green or renewables based companies has been somewhat of a love affair for investors ever since the theme popped onto the scene a few years ago now.

    The theme of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) has now become an investment factor to which portfolio and asset managers weight their holdings towards (or not).

    With the recent commodities supercycle, it’s no wonder to see some renewables focused shares make a sharp u-turn in 2022, as the market digests a number of macroeconomic factors.

    Green is good, yes?

    There’s a lot of debate out there, but one argument is that Australia could be a huge benefactor to the shift into renewables.

    “We are probably the richest, the most regionally endowed nation in lithium, cobalt, rare earths, palladium, copper and nickel, all of which are somewhere between 200 and 1000 per cent under-supplied,” The Australian reports.

    “If you join the dots…the energy transition will be good for us. While our balance sheet’s terrible, it’s better than anyone else in the world,” he added.

    Elsewhere, Australia has made “significant strides” in its offshore wind industry in recent weeks, according to analysis from Herbert Smith Freehills LLP.

    “On 4 March 2022, the Victorian Government announced Australia’s first offshore wind energy targets of 2GW of offshore wind energy production by 2032,” they wrote.

    “According to the Paper, winds off Victoria’s coastline are among the best not only in Australia, but also on a global scale, with the potential for Gippsland and Portland regions to support 13GW of capacity using fixed platforms in shallow waters,” they added.

    The Paper indicates a strong intention by the Victorian Government for Victoria to be the leader in the Australian offshore wind market, an industry that is developing rapidly internationally, and for which competition for investment is strong.

    Meanwhile, shares in renewable energy companies were a mixed bag during the previous quarter, with several names expanding up to 96%, whilst others lagged substantially.

    The post Own ASX renewable energy shares? Here’s why ‘the energy transition will be good for us’ appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes could be the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now.

    *Returns as of January 12th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • 2 buy-rated ASX 200 dividend shares analysts are recommending

    Happy woman holding $50 Australian notes.

    Happy woman holding $50 Australian notes.If you’re looking for dividend shares to buy, then you may want to look at the two listed below that brokers are recommending.

    Here’s what you need to know about these ASX 200 dividend shares:

    BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

    The first ASX 200 dividend share to look at is this mining giant. With commodity prices at high levels, the Big Australian looks well-placed to deliver bumper profits in the near term. Particularly given the quality and low costs of its operations across a range of commodities and geographies.

    And although the BHP share price has been racing higher this year, the team at Macquarie don’t believe it is too late to invest. Its analysts currently have an outperform rating and $61.00 price target on BHP’s shares.

    Macquarie is also forecasting some very generous dividends in the coming years. It expects fully franked dividends per share of ~$5.22 in FY 2022 and then ~$3.61 in FY 2023. Based on the current BHP share price of $51.95, this implies potential upside of 10% and 7%, respectively.

    National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB)

    Another ASX 200 dividend share for investors to look at is banking giant NAB. It could be a top option in the banking sector thanks to its strong position in business lending. This side of the sector is performing far better than retail banking and was a key driver in NAB’s 9.1% increase in cash earnings during the first quarter.

    NAB has also been boosting its operations through acquisitions. This includes the recently completed acquisition of digital bank 86 400 and the proposed acquisition of Citigroup’s Australian consumer business.

    The team at Bell Potter are positive on these deals and expect them to allow the bank to “achieve scale in digital and consumer banking offerings.”

    Its analysts are bullish on NAB and currently have a buy rating and $34.50 price target on its shares. As for dividends, the broker has pencilled in fully franked dividends per share of 136.5 cents in FY 2022 and then 134.5 cents in FY 2023. Based on the current NAB share price of $32.18, this equates to yields of 4.25% and 4.2%, respectively.

    The post 2 buy-rated ASX 200 dividend shares analysts are recommending appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes could be the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now.

    *Returns as of January 12th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Here’s why the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF rose 7% in March

    Man in green face paint and yellow wig/hat cheers in front of an Australian flag.

    Man in green face paint and yellow wig/hat cheers in front of an Australian flag.

    The Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS) went up by around 7% over March 2022.

    This was an outperformance of other exchange-traded funds (ETFs) such as iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV) which only rose by 3.3%.

    The VAS ETF is one of the largest ETFs on the ASX. The fund size is currently around $10 billion, according to Vanguard. It has an annual management fee of 0.1% per annum.

    Each ETF’s performance is decided by the underlying holdings, less the management fee. Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF tracks the S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO).

    Therefore, it’s the biggest positions in the portfolio that can have the most significant influence on the direction of the ASX 300.

    VAS ETF holdings

    At the end of February 2022, these were the fund’s biggest positions:

    BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) was 11% of the portfolio.

    Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) was 7.4% of the portfolio.

    CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) was 5.8% of the portfolio.

    National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) was 4.4% of the portfolio.

    Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) was 3.7% of the portfolio.

    Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ) was 3.4% of the portfolio.

    Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) was 3% of the portfolio.

    How did the top 3 perform?

    The Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF’s portfolio only has three positions with a weighting of more than 5% of the portfolio. All the 300 positions were part of the VAS ETF return of approximately 7% in March 2022, but the biggest three could have the most influence.

    Over March, the BHP share price increased by almost 11% amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which saw both the iron ore price and the oil price increase. BHP produces both of those commodities.

    The CBA share price rose by 13% over the month amid further talk and market commentary on inflation and the potential of interest rate rises. Some analysts believe that a rising interest rate environment will positively affect bank net interest margins (NIMs).

    The CSL share price rose by 3% last month. That wasn’t as much as BHP and CBA but it was still a gain.

    How has April started for the VAS ETF?

    The Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF is down 1.6% in the first few days of April 2022, but there is plenty more of the month left.

    Interestingly, senior portfolio manager and principal of Auscap Asset Management Tim Carleton said to Livewire:

    There is a massive push to diversify out of Australia, but I think you want to be as overweight Australia as you can possibly stomach for the rest of our lifetimes.

    That’s certainly been the right way over the last 100 years, with the Australian market delivering the best returns of any developed market, at around 12% a year, and I see no reason for that to change and if anything, we’re in a better position now than we have been.

    Mr Carleton referred to three advantages that Australia supposedly has: its natural resources, its “relatively strong population growth over the medium term”, and its proximity to the high growth and rapidly-developing Asian economies.

    The post Here’s why the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF rose 7% in March appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes could be the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now.

    *Returns as of January 12th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns and has recommended CSL Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group Limited, Westpac Banking Corporation, and iShares Trust – iShares Core S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • The CSL dividend is being paid today. Here’s what you need to know

    A man wearing a white coat holds his hands up and mouth open with joy.A man wearing a white coat holds his hands up and mouth open with joy.

    CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) shareholders will have something to cheer about today as the company pays out its latest dividend.

    The biotherapeutics giant is set to reward eligible investors with an unfranked interim dividend of US$1.04 (AU$1.42) per share.

    At Tuesday’s market close, the CSL share price finished 0.31% higher at $268.53.

    For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) also climbed yesterday with a 0.19% gain to 7,527.90 points.

    Let’s look at all the details regarding the company’s dividend.

    CSL pays out interim dividend

    CSL reported mixed numbers across key metrics in its results for the first half of the 2022 financial year.

    In summary, total revenue rose 5.3% to US$6,041 million over the prior corresponding period. This was driven by an 18% lift in Seqirus revenue to US$1,592 million, but CSL Behring revenue slightly declined by 2% to US$4,216 million.

    On the bottom line, CSL recorded a 2.8% fall in net profit after tax (NPAT) to US$1,760 million. 

    Management noted that the result was in line with expectations caused by a challenging environment from the global COVID pandemic.

    Nonetheless, the board elected to maintain its interim dividend on the previous year’s first half of US$1.04 per share.

    Based on the current share price, CSL is trailing on a forecast dividend yield of 0.59%.

    CSL share price snapshot

    While the CSL share price has notched up in the past month by 4%, it is still down 7% year to date.

    Looking slightly further back, the company’s shares reached a 52-week high of $319.78 in late November before its steep dive.

    CSL has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 52.86 and commands a market capitalisation of roughly $129.35 billion.

    The post The CSL dividend is being paid today. Here’s what you need to know appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in CSL right now?

    Before you consider CSL, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and CSL wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    *Returns as of January 13th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns and has recommended CSL Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Why now is the time to sell Santos shares: fund manager

    Sell buy and hold on a digital screen with a man pointing at the sell square.Sell buy and hold on a digital screen with a man pointing at the sell square.

    Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares have been among the top performers on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) this year.

    Since the closing bell on 31 December, Santos shares are up 28%. That compares to a gain of 1% posted by the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over that same period.

    And with Brent crude oil prices up another 1.2% overnight Monday to US$109 per barrel, the Santos share price closed up 2.27% on Tuesday.

    So why may now be a good time to sell?

    Why this fund manager is selling

    According to Catapult Wealth’s Timothy Haselum, now is a good time to exit Santos shares “on strength”.

    In a note published in the Advertiser over the weekend, Haselum said:

    The Ukraine conflict has seen energy prices skyrocket on the speculation of oil and gas sanctions in a time where new energy project approvals are out of vogue with climate conscious countries.

    Indeed, skyrocketing energy prices have seen the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) leap 30% higher year-to-date, trouncing the ASX 200 benchmark.

    With oil and gas trading near multi-year highs, Haselum said: “Energy companies like STO look great at the moment, with net cash positions and strong balance sheets, and we have seen incredibly strong rallies from their lows.”

    So why sell Santos shares today?

    “You have to think ahead here,” Haselum said. “We know that green/renewables are the future, so what’s the long-term plan? The long-term trend is down, and as green energy gains momentum, the opportunities to exit on strength will get rarer.”

    How have Santos shares been tracking longer term?

    Santos shares remain down 9% from their five-year highs, posted on 10 January 2020, when Brent crude was worth a mere US$65 per barrel.

    The share price cratered in the early months of the global pandemic as energy demand evaporated.

    Although the ASX 200 energy giant has rebounded strongly since its March 2020 lows, shares have yet to fully recover despite surging oil and gas prices.

    The post Why now is the time to sell Santos shares: fund manager appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Santos right now?

    Before you consider Santos, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Santos wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    *Returns as of January 13th 2022

    More reading

    The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Broker names 2 exciting ASX shares to buy with 80% upside potential

    Man drawing an upward line on a bar graph symbolising a rising share price.

    Man drawing an upward line on a bar graph symbolising a rising share price.

    If you’re looking for ASX shares to buy, then you may want to add the two shares listed below to your watch list.

    Both of these shares are rated as buys by Goldman Sachs with huge upside potential over the next 12 months.

    Here’s what you need to know about these growing ASX shares:

    Hipages Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: HPG)

    The first ASX share to look at is Hipages. It is a leading online platform and software as a service (SaaS) provider that connects consumers with trusted tradies.

    The Hipages platform helps tradies grow their business by providing job leads from homeowners and organisations looking for qualified professionals, while also enabling them to optimise their business through its SaaS product.

    Goldman Sachs is a very big fan of Hipages. It believes that “HPG presents a compelling long term growth opportunity as it scales to become the leading trade services marketplace in Australia.”

    The broker currently has a buy rating and $3.60 price target on its shares. So, with the Hipages share price currently fetching $1.96, this suggests potential upside of 84% for investors over the next 12 months.

    Nitro Software Ltd (ASX: NTO)

    Another ASX share that is highly rated is Nitro Software. It is the document productivity software company behind the Nitro Productivity Suite that is aiming to drive digital transformation in organisations around the world.

    Goldman Sachs is very positive on Nitro’s long term growth potential. It said: “The market [is] currently pricing in long-term growth and margin assumptions that understate Nitro’s potential, in our view. We are positive on Nitro’s structural growth opportunity, reflected in our DCF scenario analysis implying an attractive asymmetric risk/reward skew.”

    It currently has a buy rating and $2.60 price target on its shares. Based on the current Nitro share price, this implies potential upside of 77% for investors.

    The post Broker names 2 exciting ASX shares to buy with 80% upside potential appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes could be the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now.

    *Returns as of January 12th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns and has recommended Hipages Group Holdings Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns and has recommended Hipages Group Holdings Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nitro Software Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • This ASX share changed me FOREVER: fund manager

    a man sitting at a computer at a desk has a look of anguish and trepidation on his face as he opens his eyes wide and made an aargh type expression with his mouth as his hair stands on end and his tie also stands on end with one part over each shoulder in what is supposed to be a humorous picture of something in a panic.a man sitting at a computer at a desk has a look of anguish and trepidation on his face as he opens his eyes wide and made an aargh type expression with his mouth as his hair stands on end and his tie also stands on end with one part over each shoulder in what is supposed to be a humorous picture of something in a panic.

    Ask A Fund Manager

    The Motley Fool chats with fund managers so that you can get an insight into how the professionals think. In this edition, Atlas Funds Management chief investment officer Hugh Dive humbly names his biggest mistake in investing and how it changed him forever.

    The ASX share for a comfortable night’s sleep

    The Motley Fool: If the market closed tomorrow for four years, which stock would you want to hold?

    Hugh Dive: We don’t own it in the property fund, but we own it in the equity fund: CSL Limited (ASX: CSL)

    Absolutely, totally inelastic demand for their products. No real alternatives. Very hard to pirate… they don’t face the issues that, say, Cochlear Limited (ASX: COH) or ResMed CDI (ASX: RMD) face, with China trying to pirate your devices. 

    It’s based on blood, clean blood — high tech but lowest cost producer in the industry. Biggest collection of centres around the United States, and they have a product that demand’s totally inelastic. Their customers need to take that product on a daily basis just to live. 

    It’s hard to be pirated, hard to run out of business when you’re selling a life-saving product, with a high-quality management that has had an exceptional acquisition record over the years. 

    I’d be happy, if the market was shut for four years, to turn the screens off. I would be very certain that CSL would be around in four years’ time. Doesn’t work with every company. 

    Looking back

    MF: Is there a move that you regret from the past? For example, a missed opportunity or buying a stock at the wrong timing or price.

    HD: Every single fund manager would have one to five of these, and any fund manager who’s been in the market for more than 10 years would be lying to you if they didn’t have a couple where they were just, even now, years later you think about, sort of head in hands, going, “What was I thinking?” 

    For me, it’s a company that hasn’t been around for a while, but caused me an enormous amount of pain, and it’s also changed the way I’ve invested money [since]. 

    The company in question was Gunns Limited (ASX: GNS). They owned a range of land, about 250,000 hectares of timberland, mainly in Tasmania. 

    I bought this based on companies that had NTA [net tangible assets] — potential assets per share that were much greater than their market value. So effectively using that strategy of buying a dollar in cash for 80 cents. And this particular strategy is very seductive for value investors, because it leads you to try to buy some of these asset-rich companies. 

    So I invest in Gunns, attracted by this sort of big land bank, owning $500 million dollars worth of land and trees. And that was at quite a premium to the prevailing share price. 

    Ultimately… when we had the combination of the GFC in 2008 and ’09 and a rising Aussie dollar, dramatically reduced wood sales to China, and the company had insufficient cash flows to service their debt. 

    So Gunns became this asset-rich, cash flow poor company that ultimately couldn’t control its destiny. They couldn’t sell their assets off quickly enough to pay their current liabilities in an extremely stressed market in 2008 and subsequently went into administration. 

    I only think about that every three or four days now, but it changed the way [I invest]. It made me focus much more on the cash flow statement and much less on a company’s profit and loss and balance sheet statements. 

    Because you need that — cash flow is the lifeblood of a company. 

    MF: When a company descends into administration, it’s going to zero for the investors, isn’t it? 

    HD: Yeah. We were sold out at 70 cents, so it was a big loss. It didn’t hold its debt. It was a very poor outcome. When a company goes into administration there, if you don’t sell out just before the debt, often a company will go into a share trading freeze. 

    Sometimes you end up with a couple of cents in a dollar, but as an equity holder, you’re the last in the queue. The bond holders, the hybrid holders, their hands are out first, and then you’re left… Rarely [do] you get anything. So you’re left holding worthless pieces of paper in that situation. 

    MF: Creditors always come above shareholders, don’t they? 

    HD: Yeah. There’s a long line of hands with their hands out. That’s the risk you take as an equity investor, and that’s why you get compensated when things go right, above the bond holders, who often get their interest coupon and their money back.

    The post This ASX share changed me FOREVER: fund manager appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo owns CSL Ltd., Cochlear Ltd., and ResMed Inc. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns and has recommended CSL Ltd. and Cochlear Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Cochlear Ltd. and ResMed Inc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

    A female stockbroker reviews share price performance in her office with the city shown in the background through her windows

    A female stockbroker reviews share price performance in her office with the city shown in the background through her windows

    On Tuesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) was a positive performer again. The benchmark index rose 0.2% to 7,527.9 points.

    Will the market be able to build on this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

    ASX 200 expected to sink

    The Australian share market looks set to sink on Wednesday following a poor night in the US. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 54 points or 0.7% lower this morning. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones fell 0.8%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.25%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 2.3%. This was driven by concerns that US Fed hikes will slow the economy.

    Oil prices fall

    Energy producers such as Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a poor day after oil prices dropped. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 2.6 % to US$100.58 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price has fallen 2.1% to US$105.25 a barrel. This follows concerns that COVID lockdowns in China could impact demand.

    Wesfarmers sells down Coles stake

    The Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) share price will be on watch today amid reports that Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) has sold a $500 million stake in the supermarket giant. According to the AFR, after the market close, Wesfarmers sold 28.2 million shares via a block trade at $17.75 per share. This represents a 1.8% discount to the Coles close price.

    Gold price drops

    Gold miners Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a subdued day after the gold price fell. According to CNBC, the spot gold price is down 0.45% to US$1,925.6 an ounce. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and expectations for more aggressive monetary policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve offset put pressure on demand for safe haven assets.

    Allkem remains a buy

    The Allkem Ltd (ASX: AKE) share price may have been charging higher this year but one leading broker still sees plenty of upside ahead. According to a note out of Bell Potter, its analysts have retained their buy rating and $18.05 price target on the lithium miner’s shares. The broker said: “AKE is in a strong position to both generate significant free cash flow in the current market strength and to benefit from what we expect to be supply deficits in lithium markets over the medium to long term.”

    The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Scott just revealed what he believes could be the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now.

    *Returns as of January 12th 2022

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro owns Orocobre Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns and has recommended COLESGROUP DEF SET and Wesfarmers Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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