The A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) share price has been temporarily paused on the ASX pending a further announcement. Investors are watching closely after the company’s latest trading halt was declared today.

What did The A2 Milk Company report?

• Trading in A2 Milk Company shares has been paused by the ASX, effective 19 January 2026.
• No new earnings, revenue, or updates were disclosed in the current statement.
• Investors will need to wait for further details from the company or the ASX.
• The pause follows a standard practice when price-sensitive information is pending.

What else do investors need to know?

The ASX has put The A2 Milk Company securities into a trading halt. This is often used when a company is set to make a potentially market-moving announcement or requires time to prepare and release an important update.

Shareholders can expect an official statement or further details soon, which will clarify the reasons behind this pause. Until then, trading of A2M shares remains suspended.

What’s next for The A2 Milk Company?

Investors should monitor ASX announcements closely for the company’s next update, as the trading pause usually signals pending news. Once the halt is lifted and more information is released, the share price could move in response, depending on the nature of the announcement.

The A2 Milk Company is expected to provide further details promptly to keep the market informed and ensure shareholders are updated.

The A2 Milk Company share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, A2 Milk shares have risen 43%, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has increased 6% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post The A2 Milk Company in trading halt: What investors should know appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips. This article was prepared with the assistance of Large Language Model (LLM) tools for the initial summary of the company announcement. Any content assisted by AI is subject to our robust human-in-the-loop quality control framework, involving thorough review, substantial editing, and fact-checking by our experienced writers and editors holding appropriate credentials. The Motley Fool Australia stands behind the work of our editorial team and takes ultimate responsibility for the content published by The Motley Fool Australia.

The Unico Silver Ltd (ASX: USL) share price is soaring today after the company released a big quarterly update.

At the time of writing, Unico Silver shares are up 4.78% to $1.095, as the market digests the latest results.

So, let’s take a closer look at the announcement.

What does Unico Silver do?

Unico Silver is a silver and gold explorer with projects in Argentina and Australia.

Its main focus is the Joaquin silver-gold project in Argentina, an advanced exploration asset with existing mineral resources. The company is working to expand those resources and advance the project towards development.

Drilling activity continues to ramp up

In its December 2025 quarterly update, Unico said it continued to increase drilling at the Joaquin project.

During the quarter, the company completed infill and extension drilling to better define the size and quality of the silver mineralisation. Early results pointed to wide zones of shallow mineralisation, which is seen as positive from a future mining perspective.

Unico also began additional technical work during the quarter, including metallurgical testing and geotechnical studies. These are key steps needed as the company works towards more detailed development studies.

A strong cash position

Just as importantly, Unico finished the quarter with a very strong cash balance, giving it plenty of funding to keep moving.

The company ended December with $66.7 million in cash, up from $28.9 million in the previous quarter. This followed a successful capital raising that brought in around $50 million before costs.

During the quarter, Unico spent $9.6 million on exploration and evaluation, reflecting the higher level of drilling and technical work underway.

With more than 6 quarters of funding available at current spending levels, the company appears well funded to continue drilling and advancing its projects without needing to raise more money in the near term.

Silver prices help set the backdrop

The broader market environment has also been supportive.

Silver prices have been strong recently, after hitting record highs this year before easing slightly. At the time of writing, silver is trading around US$93 per ounce, according to Trading Economics.

The rally has been driven by a mix of investor demand, expectations of lower interest rates, and silver’s growing use in industrial applications such as solar panels and electronics.

What investors should keep in mind

Unico Silver is still an exploration company, which means it remains high risk. There are a number of things that can disappoint investors, such as drilling results, rising costs, or timelines being pushed back.

That said, today’s update showed the company is well funded and making steady progress at a time when interest in silver is growing.

For investors who follow ASX small-cap resource stocks, Unico Silver is one to keep on the watchlist as drilling continues through 2026.

The post Why Unico Silver shares are jumping today after a big quarterly update appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The gold price and silver price leapt to new record highs on Monday after the United States announced new tariffs.

The gold price lifted more than 1% to above US$4,670 per ounce, while the silver price spiked 4% to almost US$94 per ounce.

The previous record prices were $4,635.25 per ounce for gold and $92.34 per ounce for silver — both set last week.

Gold and silver prices jump amid flight to safety

Analysts at Trading Economics said investors were flocking to safe-haven assets after US President Donald Trump took his ambition to buy Greenland a step further.

Over the weekend, President Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from eight European nations to punish their opposition to his aspirations to acquire Greenland.

The eight nations are Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland.

On Truth Social, President Trump posted:

This Tariff will be due and payable until such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland.

President Trump asserts that the US needs to own Greenland, which is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, for security purposes.

The tariffs would start at 10% on 1 February and rise to 25% on 1 June.

The analysts said:

European leaders discussed potential retaliatory measures, including reviving last year’s plan to levy tariffs on US goods, while French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly called on fellow leaders to activate the EU’s anti-coercion instrument.

The US President’s unpredictable nature has created global geopolitical and economic uncertainty since he came to office a year ago.

Uncertainty makes investors nervous, leading to more conservative investment choices, such as buying precious metals.

Of the gold price, the analysts said:

Bullion has already been on a strong upward trajectory this year following a robust performance in 2025, supported by political instability in Venezuela, renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence, and expectations of more US interest rate cuts.

The silver price is rebounding after weakening a little when the US announced it would not put a tariff on critical minerals.

Silver was added to the US Critical Minerals list in November due to tight supply and demand.

Demand is rising because silver is a key input in solar panels, electric vehicles (EVs), and AI infrastructure like data centres.

Citi estimates that the solar industry alone is using 30% of annual silver production.

Tech device manufacturers also use silver to build circuits, connectors, and to solder metals in smartphones and laptops.

How are ASX gold and silver shares faring today?

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are up 2.8% to $27.57 at the time of writing.

The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price rose 1.7% to $13.35 and reached a new record of $13.50 in earlier trading.

Newmont Corporation CDI (ASX: NEM) shares are up 1.3% to $171.49 after hitting a new all-time high of $173.12 earlier.

ASX 200 diversified miner South32 Ltd (ASX: S32), one of the world’s largest silver producers, is 0.8% higher at $4.20 per share.

Silver Mines Ltd (ASX: SVL) shares are up 8.6% to $2.21 after an announcement about Maverick Springs today.

The Unico Silver Ltd (ASX: USL) share price is 3.4% higher at $1.08 after the company released its latest quarterly report.

The post Gold, silver hit new highs as US punishes Europe with tariffs over Greenland stance appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Smart investing is not about finding the most exciting stock in the market.

More often, it comes down to owning high-quality businesses that can stay relevant, keep reinvesting effectively, and compound value over long periods of time. These are the ASX 200 shares that tend to justify being held through market cycles.

With that in mind, here are three ASX 200 shares that smart, long-term investors may want to consider buying and holding.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

CSL is a business built around scale, expertise, and long-term investment.

The biotechnology company’s global plasma collection and manufacturing network is not something that can be replicated quickly or cheaply. That infrastructure advantage gives CSL a strong competitive position and allows it to serve growing demand for plasma-derived therapies worldwide.

What makes CSL particularly attractive for buy and hold investors is its research and development investments. Rather than maximising short-term capital returns, the company consistently channels capital into advancing research. Over time, that approach has translated into steady earnings growth and resilience across very different market environments.

So, with its shares down heavily from their highs, now could be an opportune time to buy a quality company at a discount.

ResMed Inc. (ASX: RMD)

ResMed operates in a corner of healthcare where demand is driven by long-term trends.

Sleep apnoea and respiratory conditions are becoming more widely diagnosed as awareness improves and populations age. ResMed benefits from this through a combination of medical devices, masks, and software platforms that support patient monitoring and compliance.

In addition, ResMed is increasingly becoming a digital healthcare company. It uses data and connected devices to deepen relationships with providers and patients. This shift supports recurring revenue and strengthens customer stickiness over time.

Overall, I think ResMed offers exposure to healthcare innovation with a proven commercial foundation.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

A final ASX 200 share to buy and hold could be Xero. Its cloud-based accounting platform has become integral for millions of small businesses and their advisers. Once adopted, it is not easily replaced, which supports long-term customer retention and recurring revenue.

Xero is still expanding its addressable market. International growth, particularly in large regions like the United States and the United Kingdom, provides it with a long growth runway. At the same time, ongoing product development and acquisitions allow Xero to increase the value it delivers to existing customers.

In light of this, I believe Xero represents a company that can keep growing long into the future. And this is exactly what you want from a buy and hold investment.

The post 3 ASX 200 shares for smart investors to buy and hold appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in CSL, ResMed, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL, ResMed, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) shares are losing ground today.

Shares in the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) lithium miner closed Friday trading for 28 cents. In early afternoon trade on Monday, shares are changing hands for 26.5 cents apiece, down 5.4%.

For some context, the All Ords is down 0.4% at this same time.

If you already own or have been following this ASX lithium stock, you’ll know that outsized daily price moves are nothing new for the Core Lithium shares.

Indeed, after the miner hit a multi-year closing low of 5.7 cents on 7 April, shares then rocketed an eye-watering 487.7% to close at a one-year-plus high of 33.5 cents on 8 January.

Following that meteoric rise, there looks to have been some profit-taking going on.

While the share price is still up a remarkable 364.9% since the April lows, shares have fallen 20.9% since 8 January.

Which brings us back to our headline question.

Should you buy the retrace in Core Lithium shares?

Core Lithium suspended mining operations at its flagship Finniss lithium project in January 2024.

But with lithium prices rebounding, Core Lithium shares could get another big leg up if Finniss returns to production in 2026, as I suspect it might.

It was only back in June that spodumene, a lithium-bearing ore, was trading for just US$575 per tonne. Last week, the same tonne was fetching more than US$2,000 per tonne.

With miners across the world reducing production in recent years, and a number following Core Lithium and suspending operations entirely, global lithium supplies have tightened amid strong demand growth. That’s being driven by the growing global EV market alongside fast-growing demand for sustainable energy storage systems, spurred by power-hungry AI data centres.

Commenting on the impact of the fast-rising lithium price, Pls Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) CEO Dale Henderson said (quoted by The Australian Financial Review):

At US$2,000 per tonne or above, you’re at a level that is above the consensus average of what the long-term price needs to be for the market. At these levels, a whole number of assets become profitable.

And in what could spur further gains for Core Lithium shares, the team at Barrenjoey expect lithium prices will reach US$3,250 per tonne in 2026.

“The rally has been driven by consistent destocking of lithium chemicals in China as lithium-ion battery production has continued to surprise the market to the upside, particularly energy storage system battery shipments,” Glyn Lawcock, head of resources research at Barrenjoey, said.

So, will we see Core Lithium bring Finniss back online this year?

Commenting on the mothballed Finniss project on 13 October, Core Lithium CEO Paul Brown said:

During the September quarter we built on the Restart Study, delivering a 42% uplift in Ore Reserves with the inclusion of Carlton [in Finniss reserves] … We are well-capitalised and focused on advancing Finniss towards restart and a Final Investment Decision.

Foolish Takeaway

While I don’t expect we’ll see Core Lithium shares return to the $1.67 highs we saw back in November 2022 this year, should lithium prices keep marching higher and Finniss reopen, today might be an opportune time to buy the stock.

The post Up 365% since April, should you buy the recent dip in Core Lithium shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

RBC Capital Markets has taken on the difficult task of picking, as it says, “winners amongst winners” in the surging gold sector, and has come up with four names it believes will outperform.

The analyst team at RBC said gold’s 13% or so increase over the second half of the financial year had driven strong equity returns.

They went on to say:

While valuations are no longer as cheap, they remain acceptable relative to gold’s strength. We maintain our original FY26 investment framework and continue to favour miners delivering meaningful near-term production growth.

A key theme over the second quarter of the year just finished, they said, would be the fact that some gold miners would be moving to a tax-paying position as accrued losses were used up.

They flagged Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS), and Westgold Resources (ASX: WGX) as falling into this category.

They went on to say:

Balance sheets across our coverage remain in strong net cash positions, well-positioned to self-fund growth commitments. We cautiously favour investments in growth over operational/valuation safety. Gold’s price strength has unlocked previously dormant in-ground value, and we believe now is the time to realise this latent value as potential projects.

Best of a good bunch

The companies RBC has an outperform rating on are Westgold, Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL), Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU), and Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL).

On Westgold, RBC expects the company to deliver production for the quarter of 93,000 ounces of gold at a cost of $2824 per ounce, which is ahead of consensus estimates of 90,000 ounces.

The RBC team said any second-quarter weakness should be considered against the company’s strong three-year production growth, and a pathway to producing 500,000 ounces of gold per year beyond FY28 at a cost of less than $2500 per ounce.

Regarding Bellevue Gold, which has already released its second quarter result, RBC said higher production was expected in the second half and, “Continuation of higher recoveries … over the financial year presents upside to our forecasts”.

Vault Minerals, the RBC report says, is expected to report 92,000 ounces of gold produced during the quarter, in line with consensus estimates.

This will have been the company’s last hedged quarter, RBC says, and future earnings growth will come from the hedge book “rolling off”.

Regis has also already released its second-quarter results, and RBC said it expected high free cash flow yields from the company for the 2026 and 2027 financial years.

The post Broker picks ‘winners amongst winners’ in the gold sector appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is having a poor start to the week. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is down 0.4% to 8,867.7 points.

Four ASX shares that are not letting that hold them back are listed below. Here’s why they are rising:

Catalyst Metals Ltd (ASX: CYL)

The Catalyst Metals share price is up 6% to $9.53. This morning, this gold miner released drilling results from the Cinnamon trend at the Plutonic Gold Belt. According to the release, the latest drilling results have confirmed a high-grade zone along a 400m strike length, which remains open in both directions. Catalyst’s managing director and CEO, James Champion de Crespigny, commented: “Since Catalyst acquired Plutonic, it has only had the time and capital to explore at Plutonic and Trident. Both Reserves have doubled under Catalyst’s ownership. The next target was Cinnamon. The results today, and those released back in October 2025, suggest the potential to replicate this success again.”

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC)

The Lynas Rare Earths share price is up 2% to $15.81. This appears to have been driven by a broker note out of Morgan Stanley this morning. According to the note, the broker has upgraded the rare earths producer’s shares to an overweight rating with a $17.55 price target. Although the broker suspects that Lynas’ quarterly update could fall short of consensus estimates, it believes investors should overlook this. Especially given recent strength in rare earths prices.

Polynovo Ltd (ASX: PNV)

The Polynovo share price is up 3% to $1.24. This has been driven by the release of the medical device company’s half year update. PolyNovo revealed that it achieved unaudited group sales of $68.2 million for the first half of FY 2026. This represents a 26% increase year on year. Including BARDA revenue, total group revenue rose 17.6% to $70.4 million. PolyNovo’s new CEO, Bruce Peatey, said: “We are pleased to see strong growth across key markets, supported by a broader adoption across multiple indications, new products, and expanded geographies—giving us confidence in continued momentum through 2026.”

St George Mining Ltd (ASX: SGQ)

The St George Mining share price is up almost 14% to 12.5 cents. Investors have been buying this mining exploration company after it released strong drilling results from the 100%-owned Araxa Rare Earths and Niobium Project in Brazil. According to the release, the company recorded exceptional assays of very thick and very high-grade rare earths and niobium mineralisation.

The post Why Catalyst Metals, Lynas, Polynovo, and St George Mining shares are pushing higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended PolyNovo. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended PolyNovo. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB) are under pressure, despite the company releasing a positive regulatory update today.

The Mesoblast share price is down almost 15% over the past week and is trading around $2.59 this afternoon, down another 1.89%. That puts the stock at a 2-month low, despite news of progress with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

So, what’s driving the weakness?

What did the FDA say?

According to the release, the FDA said Mesoblast’s lead treatment, rexlemestrocel-L, helped reduce pain levels. The feedback relates to patients with long-term lower back pain caused by degenerative disc disease.

The update follows a Type B meeting with the FDA, where the regulator reviewed results from Mesoblast’s first Phase 3 trial. The FDA said the pain reduction results looked better for patients treated with rexlemestrocel-L and that the data support the treatment working as intended.

The FDA also noted that strong reductions in opioid use seen in at least one major trial could potentially be included on the product label. Mesoblast said many patients treated with rexlemestrocel-L were able to reduce or stop opioid use for long periods after treatment.

A second Phase 3 trial is already underway in the US and is now more than halfway enrolled. Mesoblast expects recruitment to finish later this year, which keeps the regulatory process moving forward.

So why is the share price falling?

Despite the positive announcement, the share price reaction has been underwhelming.

Part of the weakness appears to be technical. Mesoblast shares have pulled back sharply over the past week and are now trading at their lowest level in roughly 2 months, which can weigh on short-term sentiment.

There is also likely some profit-taking at play. The stock rallied strongly late last year, and some investors appear to be taking profits after the update rather than waiting for the next stage.

Adding to the pressure, director activity may have unsettled some investors. Filings show that Executive Director Dr Eric Rose recently sold around 640,000 shares on market at prices near $2.97, ahead of the recent pullback. While director sales do not necessarily reflect concerns about fundamentals, they can influence near-term confidence.

What investors need to keep in mind

Mesoblast remains a high-risk, high-reward biotech stock. While the FDA response is encouraging, the product is still not close to being commercialised.

With the share price on the back foot, investors appear to be weighing long-term potential against short-term uncertainty. However, with more work still needed before approval, the share price is likely to remain volatile.

The post Mesoblast just cleared a key FDA hurdle. So why are investors exiting? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has followed Wall Street’s lead and dropped into the red. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is down 0.3% to 8,879.1 points.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are dropping:

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG)

The Fortescue share price is down almost 2% to $22.40. This may have been driven by the release of a broker note out of Morgan Stanley this morning. According to the note, the broker has downgraded the iron ore miner’s shares to an underweight rating with a $19.75 price target. This implies potential downside of approximately 12% from current levels. The broker is expecting strong realised prices for the second quarter of FY 2026. However, it thinks costs could be higher and Iron Bridge production could soften. And due to recent share price strength, it feels its shares are overvalued now and downgrades them to underweight.

Life360 Inc (ASX: 360)

The Life360 share price is down almost 7% to $27.23. This follows a similar decline by the location technology company’s NASDAQ listed shares on Wall Street on Friday night. This appears to have been driven by broad weakness in the tech sector as investors rotate into other areas of the market.

PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS)

The PLS Group share price is down 4% to $4.49. This is despite there being no news out of the lithium miner on Monday. Though, it is worth noting that Australian Super revealed that it has been selling down its holding in the company. Last week, it sold down its stake from 16.27% to 15.11%. Despite today’s share price weakness, the lithium miner’s shares remain up over 80% since this time last year.

Syrah Resources Ltd (ASX: SYR)

The Syrah Resources share price is down 3% to 29.5 cents. This follows the release of an update on the graphite producer’s offtake agreement with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). The parties have an agreement for the supply of natural graphite active anode material (AAM) from Syrah’s 11.25ktpa AAM facility in Vidalia, Louisiana. Today’s update reveals that the parties have agreed to amend the offtake agreement to extend the final qualification date to 16 March 2026. This is subject to the consent of the United States Department of Energy. Tesla has the right to terminate the offtake agreement if Syrah does not provide conforming AAM samples from Vidalia by this date.

The post Why Fortescue, Life360, PLS, and Syrah shares are dropping today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Life360. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Life360 and Tesla. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Life360. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) Chief Economist Shane Oliver is expecting the Australian share market to deliver returns of 8% this year and for interest rates to remain on hold, in a new investment outlook for 2026 published this week.

Dr Oliver said he also expected balanced growth super funds to return about 7%, and expected house price growth to slow to 5%-7%.

Returns defy global uncertainty

Dr Oliver said, despite a somewhat unsettled year just past, investment returns held up.

He added:

Despite uncertainty around US President Trump’s policies, geopolitics and interest rates, 2025 saw strong investment returns on the back of falling interest rates, solid economic and profit growth globally and expectations for stronger profit growth in Australia. AI enthusiasm boosted US shares although they were relative underperformers globally. This saw average superannuation funds return around 9%. This is the third year in a row of returns around 10% and over the last five years, they returned 7.7% pa.

Dr Oliver said there were several reasons to be wary on the investment front this year, including that share valuations remain “stretched relative to history, with US shares offering little risk premium over bonds and Australian shares not much better”.

Other areas of concern included the surge in AI shares, which “shows some signs of being a bubble”, risks to the Chinese economy, and the fact that some central banks are at or close to the bottom when it comes to interest rates.

Interest rates to stay on hold

In terms of Australian rates, Dr Oliver said he believed interest rate increases would likely not come until 2027.

He wrote:

In Australia we expect some fall back in underlying inflation to allow the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) to avoid rate hikes, but it’s a close call.

Geopolitical risk was also expected to remain high, and Dr Oliver said the mid-term elections in the US were historically associated with pullbacks in the market.

The Ukraine war is yet to be resolved, problems with Iran could flare up again with a possible US military strike, US tensions with China could escalate again, political uncertainty will likely be high in Europe with the rise of the far right, the US intervention in Venezuela could turn bad for the US (and may be interpreted as a ‘green light’ for China and Russia to act in their own spheres of influence). Trump’s grab for Greenland threatens the NATO appliance. And the midterm elections in the US are often associated with share market volatility with an average 17% drawdown in US shares in midterm election years since 1950. This is arguably evident in Trump’s increasingly erratic and populist policies.

Dr Oliver expects Australian economic growth to come in at 2.2%, and profit growth in Australia to come in at 10% after three years of falls.

The post How much will markets and rates rise this year? AMP’s Shane Oliver makes a prediction appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.