• Why has the Nickel Mines (ASX:NIC) share price dumped 15% in a month?

    Female worker sitting desk with head in hand and looking fed upFemale worker sitting desk with head in hand and looking fed upFemale worker sitting desk with head in hand and looking fed up

    The Nickel Mines Ltd (ASX: NIC) share price has been struggling lately despite releasing a barrage of seemingly good news.

    Over the last 30 days, it released news of a solar deal, an acquisition, and its quarterly activities report.

    Sadly, over the same period, the Nickel Mines share price has tumbled 15.09% to trade at $1.37.

    For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) have both slipped 2% over the last month.

    Let’s take a look at what exactly has been dragging the nickel explorer and developer’s stock lower over the last month.

    Here’s what’s driven the Nickel Mines share price lately

    It’s been a busy month for Nickel Mines. And while it’s been releasing numerous announcements, the market has been bidding its share price lower.

    The first dip came on 19 January when the company released news of a deal that could see a 200-megawatt peak solar farm built within the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park.

    Power from the solar farm would be able to power Nickel Mine’s processing activities.

    Shortly after, the company released its quarterly activities report.

    Over the 3 month period ended 31 December, the company’s production and earnings before interest tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) were relatively flat with the previous quarter’s.

    While January was tough on Nickel Mines’ stock, February brought plenty more drama.

    The Nickel Mines share price was put in the freezer on 9 February. It was thawed after the company released news of a US$225 capital raise.

    As part of the raise, shares in the company were offered for $1.37 apiece in two placements – each worth $148 million – and an ongoing share purchase plan – worth $18 million.

    The funds raised will go towards the acquisition of a 30% stake in the Oracle Nickel Project.

    The company announced today that it has paid US$53 million for an initial 10% stake. The other 20% is expected to be acquired by June.

    Eventually, it hopes to hold a 70% interest in the project for a total cost of US$525 million.

    Nickel Mines said the acquisition “represents [its] next wave of growth” and “provides a clearly defined growth path to the company becoming a top-10 global nickel producer”.

    Unfortunately, despite all its seemingly positive news, the company’s stock has only spent 8 trading days in the last month in the green.

    Though, the Nickel Mines share price is still 4.5% higher than it was this time last year.

    The post Why has the Nickel Mines (ASX:NIC) share price dumped 15% in a month? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Nickel Mines right now?

    Before you consider Nickel Mines, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Nickel Mines wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    *Returns as of January 13th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Whitehaven (ASX:WHC) share price tipped as a buy amid ‘compelling de-gearing and capital returns story’

    Happy coal miner.

    Happy coal miner.Happy coal miner.

    The Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) share price is on course to end the week on a positive note.

    In afternoon trade, the coal miner’s shares are up 4% to $3.14.

    Why is the Whitehaven share price charging higher?

    Investors have been bidding the Whitehaven share price higher today after brokers responded positively to its half year results.

    In case you missed it, the coal miner reported a 106% increase in revenue to $1.44 billion and a 1,600% jump in EBITDA to a record of $632 million. This strong result was driven by high prices for thermal coal and allowed the company to announce a $400 million share buyback.

    What was the response?

    The response to its half year results was very positive from brokers, with a large number reiterating their buy ratings and price targets that are notably higher than current levels.

    One of those was Goldman Sachs. This morning the broker retained its buy rating and lifted its price target on the company’s shares to $3.90.

    Based on the current Whitehaven share price, this implies potential upside of 24% for investors over the next 12 months.

    And with Goldman forecasting dividends per share of 29 cents in FY 2022, which equates to a 9% yield, the total potential return stretches to 33%.

    What did Goldman say?

    Goldman said: “WHC is a compelling de-gearing and capital returns story in our view. We see the value accretive buyback (GSe NAV A$3.66/sh) as a change in capital allocation towards shareholder returns as the #1 priority, then brownfield expansions (Maules Creek to 16Mtpa) and lastly greenfield projects (Vickery).”

    In addition, the broker highlights that the thermal coal price outlook is positive in 2022.

    It said: “The thermal coal market remains tight due to supply side issues in Indonesia, Australian & Russia. WHC’s realised thermal coal prices will likely flip from a 15% discount to benchmark in 1H FY22 to in-line with benchmark or a premium in 2H FY22.”

    “We upgrade our FY22/23/24 EPS by +27%/+122%/+106% after upgrading our coal price forecasts (thermal & met) by US$30/t for 2022&2023 due to ongoing market tightness,” Goldman concludes.

    The post Whitehaven (ASX:WHC) share price tipped as a buy amid ‘compelling de-gearing and capital returns story’ appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Whitehaven right now?

    Before you consider Whitehaven, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Whitehaven wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    *Returns as of January 13th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • IGO (ASX:IGO) share price lifts as Twiggy greenlights nickel acquisition

    Happy woman miner with her thumb up signalling Wyloo's commitment to back IGO's takeover of Western Areas nickelHappy woman miner with her thumb up signalling Wyloo's commitment to back IGO's takeover of Western Areas nickelHappy woman miner with her thumb up signalling Wyloo's commitment to back IGO's takeover of Western Areas nickel

    The IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) share price is in the green today as the exploration and mining company receives key support to acquire nickel producer, Western Areas Ltd (ASX: WSA).

    The IGO share price is currently $12.37, a 1.23% gain.

    Let’s take a look at what the explorer announced.

    Key backing on nickel acquisition plan

    IGO has received support from Andrew “Twiggy” Forrests’ Wyloo Consolidated Investments for the acquisition of Western Areas.

    Wyloo has 31,509,769 shares in Western Areas, equating to a 9.8% stake in the company. As part of the deal, Wyloo will vote in support of the acquisition.

    Wyloo has also agreed not to acquire or dispose of any shares prior to the scheme implementation. Wyloo is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wyloo Metals, which is a business division of Twiggy’s Tattarang Group.

    The details of the $1 billion takeover were shared with the market in December. The Western Areas board is recommending that shareholders vote in favour of IGO acquiring a 100% stake in the company for $3.36 per share.

    Commenting on the announcement today, IGO CEO Peter Bradford said: “Our transaction to acquire Western Areas is on strategy and a sensible consolidation of Western Australian nickel production assets.”

    Perpetual Limited (ASX: PPT), which owns 14.7% of Western Areas shares, has previously indicated its intention to vote in favour of the nickel acquisition.

    Deal to study nickel processing opportunities

    In a separate deal, IGO and Wyloo Metals have agreed to study nickel downstream processing opportunities in Australia. IGO will fund 70% of the study and Wyloo Metals will cover 30% of it.

    After the study is complete, the companies may form a joint venture to build a nickel downstream processing facility.

    Commenting on this new nickel study, Bradford said:

    Looking forward, our agreement with Wyloo Metals to investigate and, if economically feasible, advance
    development of a downstream nickel processing facility represents a great opportunity to progress Australia’s
    relevance in the battery metals supply chain.

    IGO and Wyloo Metals have each had an aspiration to evaluate the potential for downstream nickel processing in Australia and our joint initiative is a step towards realising the ambitions of both companies.

    IGO share price snapshot

    The IGO share price has surged by 80% over the past year. In 2022, the shares are up by around 4%. For perspective, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has returned around 5% over the past year.

    IGO has a market capitalisation of roughly $9.25 billion based on today’s share price.

    The post IGO (ASX:IGO) share price lifts as Twiggy greenlights nickel acquisition appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in IGO right now?

    Before you consider IGO, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and IGO wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    *Returns as of January 13th 2022

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    The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • What is a supercycle and are ASX 200 mining shares at the start of one?

    Jupiter Energy share price Businessman doing superman and rocketing into the skyJupiter Energy share price Businessman doing superman and rocketing into the skyJupiter Energy share price Businessman doing superman and rocketing into the sky

    Are ASX 200 mining shares at the start of another supercycle? This is the question on the minds of many investors as commodity prices have skyrocketed in response to the pandemic.

    While it’s difficult to say for certain, there are a number of factors indicating that this could be the case. Some analysts are already comfortably labelling the coming decade as the fifth supercycle in history for resources.

    Let’s take a closer look at what defines a supercycle and whether or not ASX mining shares are poised for more growth.

    What is a commodity supercycle?

    Before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s understand what characterises a commodity supercycle.

    A commodity supercycle is a prolonged period of time where commodity prices experience significant increases. This is driven by a structural shift in the supply and demand dynamics, which plays out across a number of years.

    Across the span of 150 years, four supercycles have taken place. All of these were a result of a seismic change in demand following an evolution in how and what we use materials for.

    In history, supercycles have occurred during periods such as the industrial revolution. This saw a step change from large-scale production of goods to mass production (think Henry Ford).

    Prices of the desired commodities push higher to spur on an increase in supply, leading to the expansion of mining operations.

    The mining companies that manage to provide supply into these booming periods are often handsomely rewarded. As an example, ASX 200 constituent, BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) posted an annual profit of A$22.46 billion in 2011 — this was during the last mining boom.

    Prior to FY21, the best the mining giant could muster up since 2011 was A$15.1 million in net profit after tax in 2012.

    Are ASX 200 mining shares set for another boom?

    Now that we have an understanding of what is involved in a supercycle, are we staring at the beginning of the next one? Based on the insights from analysts, it seems there’s a chance we very well could be.

    Last month, analysts at Goldman Sachs shared their belief in a new long-term bull market for commodities. In fact, head of global commodity research, Jeffrey Currie said, “[…] there has rarely been a better time to add commodities to a portfolio […]”

    Furthermore, the decarbonisation trend has been highlighted by experts as a potential heavy lifter in demand for materials.

    While Janus Henderson Group (ASX: JHG) portfolio manager, Tim Gerrard, prefers to steer away from calling it a ‘supercycle’, he does see a structural shift playing out from environmental pressures.
    Sharing his comments in an interview with Livewire, Gerrard said:

    Demand for materials to make the world a better place to live is driving change globally. Whether it is satisfying the need to decarbonise by electrification, replacing plastics with paper products that are renewable and biodegradable or developing more sustainable animal nutrition – the need for resources is very diverse and growing rapidly.

    TradingView Chart

    Demand has already been out of balance with supply for many commodities since the beginning of 2020. As shown in the chart above, prices for the likes of lithium, aluminium, and nickel have skyrocketed in response.

    What’s the verdict?

    If the trend continues, ASX 200 mining shares could be set for a massive windfall over the years to come. Despite this possibility, the performance of these companies has been patchy over the last year.

    • BHP Group – down 1.7%
    • Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) – down 20.6%
    • Mineral Resources Limited (ASX: MIN) – up 23.4%
    • Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) – up 173.6%

    This suggests, supercycle or no supercycle, selecting the right ASX 200 mining shares will be paramount to investor success.

    The post What is a supercycle and are ASX 200 mining shares at the start of one? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes could be the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now.

    *Returns as of January 12th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Own Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) shares? Here’s all you need to know about its latest dividend

    A Wesfarmers investor wearing a dressing gown and holding a cup of coffee in a yellow mug gives a satisfied smile knowing he will receive a good interim dividendA Wesfarmers investor wearing a dressing gown and holding a cup of coffee in a yellow mug gives a satisfied smile knowing he will receive a good interim dividendA Wesfarmers investor wearing a dressing gown and holding a cup of coffee in a yellow mug gives a satisfied smile knowing he will receive a good interim dividend

    Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) shareholders might be feeling a bit bruised this week after the share price tumbled on the release of the company’s half-year earnings.

    However, there’s plenty to look forward to. Namely, Wesfarmers’ upcoming interim dividend.

    While it might be smaller than usual, it puts the company in a decent yield position.

    Let’s break down what investors should know about their upcoming pay day.

    What’s the deal with Wesfarmers’ interim dividend?

    The Wesfarmers share price tumbled yesterday, and part of its slump might have been brought on by the announcement of its interim dividend.

    The conglomerate will be paying out 80 cents per share for the 6 months ended 31 December 2021. That’s 9% lower than last year’s interim dividend for financial year 2021.

    Additionally – discounting its dividend for the first half of financial year 2020 – it represents the smallest interim dividend paid by Wesfarmers since 2013.

    The lower dividend came after Wesfarmers’ after-tax profits tumbled 14% over the first half.

    The company’s suffering was mainly brought on by the outbreak of the COVID-19 Omicron variant. It caused notable supply chain issues and staff shortages.  

    What are the positives?

    There are positive ways of looking at the company’s latest payout, though.

    As usual, Wesfarmers’ dividend will be fully franked – meaning, it could benefit some investors at tax time.

    Also, it gives Wesfarmers a trailing dividend yield of 3.3% – taking into account this new interim dividend and the final dividend it paid for financial year 2021.

    The key dates excited investors will want to look out for are as follows:

    • Wesfarmers will trade ex-dividend on 22 February

    It’s likely the Wesfarmers share price will fall on the company’s ex-dividend date.

    That’s because traders who buy into the company from then on won’t be eligible for the payout.

    The value of all ASX shares often falls in line with the value of the dividend being paid out.

    •  Shareholders will receive their interim dividends on 30 March

    Whether Wesfarmers investors have more to look forward to when the company releases its full-year results in August is yet to be seen.

    Wesfarmers still hasn’t provided any guidance for financial year 2022. However, the company does expect continuing COVID-19 impacts in the second half.

    The post Own Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) shares? Here’s all you need to know about its latest dividend appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Wesfarmers right now?

    Before you consider Wesfarmers, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Wesfarmers wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    *Returns as of January 13th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns and has recommended Wesfarmers Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Smartgroup (ASX:SIQ) share price jumps 9% as full-year profit defies headwinds

    The Smartgroup Corporation Ltd (ASX: SIQ) share price is surging to a four-month high today. This comes after the company posted an increase in full-year profit despite the COVID-19 headwinds.

    The salary packaging company’s shares are currently up 8.81% to $8.03 apiece after management gave investors a few reasons to cheer.

    Smartgroup share price climbs as profit rises

    Highlights of Smartgroup’s full-year CY 2021 results include:

    Bigger margins despite cost pressures

    It is not an easy task to expand profit margins in this climate. But supply chain disruptions from the pandemic and inflationary pressures failed to offset the cost savings from the company’s efficiency drive.

    What is helping Smartgroup deliver good results is also the extra circa 17,000 salary packaging customers it secured during the year. Around half of them were introduced from a new healthcare sector client.

    The company also boasted it had a 100% success rate in renewing or extending its top 20 contracts. This includes its biggest client, the Department of Defence.

    Nearly all of Smartgroup’s clients are from stable and defensive sectors such as health, education, not-for-profit, and government.

    Smartgroup also highlighted its strong net operating cash flow of $78.3 million which is even bigger than its NPATA figure.

    It’s reassuring to have a strong balance sheet during these volatile times. The group has no net corporate debt, and its business model doesn’t need much capital to run.

    What else?

    The company isn’t totally immune from the impact of COVID. Delays in getting new vehicles continued to push out settlement timeframes for novated leasing vehicles. The number of open vehicle leases at 31 December 2021 is up 152% to the same time last year.

    It’s a case of supply not keeping up with strong demand. Smartgroup noted that its novated leasing leads are up 8% in the first few weeks of 2022 versus the previous corresponding period.

    But in the grand scheme of things, that’s not a bad problem to have.

    Dividend delight for shareholders

    The company is paying a juicy special dividend that’s on top of its bigger final dividend.

    Management declared a final dividend of 19 cps, which is 8.6% ahead of last year, and a 30 cps special payout. This brings total dividends for the year to 72 cps. Both distributions are fully franked.

    The dividends are payable on 23 March 2022, with a record date of 9 March 2022.

    Commentary from management

    Speaking on the results driving the Smartgroup share price, chairman Michael Carapiet said:

    Smartgroup has continued to prove its resilience, withstanding the ongoing impacts of COVID-19 and delivering strong operational results.

    The company generates high-quality earnings from a diversified customer base operating in growing sectors and with relationships based on long-term contractual arrangements.

    Smartgroup CEO Tim Looi added:

    I am not only pleased with our strong financial results this year but am also positive about the foundations our Smart Future program has built for future EBITDA and business growth.

    In the first few weeks of trading in 2022, our novated leasing leads are up by 8% compared to the same period in 2021. Our key digital deliverables from Smart Future are on track and our investments in people, processes, and technology are delivering results that will continue through CY 2022.

    Smartgroup share price snapshot

    The Smartgroup share price has risen almost 9% over the past 12 months. It is also up 3% since the start of the year.

    For comparison, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is up around 5% in the past year and is down almost 4% this year to date.

    The post Smartgroup (ASX:SIQ) share price jumps 9% as full-year profit defies headwinds appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Smartgroup right now?

    Before you consider Smartgroup, you’ll want to hear this.

    Motley Fool Investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Smartgroup wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.* And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that are better buys.

    *Returns as of January 13th 2022

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    Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns and has recommended SMARTGROUP DEF SET. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • The Bitcoin price just fell 8%. What’s going on?

    tumbling bitcoin price represented by declining arrowstumbling bitcoin price represented by declining arrows

    tumbling bitcoin price represented by declining arrowsThe Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price is falling hard, down 8% since this time yesterday.

    At time of writing, the world’s biggest token by market cap is trading for US$40,639 (AU$56,558).

    That slide sends the Bitcoin price down 5% for the week and increases its losses to 15% so far in 2022.

    As for crypto investors who bought at 10 November’s all-time highs? They’re in the red by some 41%, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

    Why is the Bitcoin price tumbling today?

    The Bitcoin price is following the broader selloff in risk assets.

    Investor jitters saw the tech heavy Nasdaq plummet 2.9% in Thursday’s trading.

    Here in Australia, the S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX) is on a similar path. The All Tech index is currently down 2.2%. That’s twice the losses posted by the broader All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) at this same time.

    Investors have predominantly been spooked by two events recently.

    Firstly, the unexpectedly high inflation figures coming out of many developed nations, including the United States, the world’s biggest economy. This is seeing the US Federal Reserve, and likely other central banks including the Reserve Bank of Australia, usher in interest rate hikes sooner than expected.

    Higher interest rates tend to see growth shares sell off. And Bitcoin has lately been closely tracking the fortunes of high growth stocks.

    Secondly, and the more dominant driver to the current Bitcoin price slide, is investor fears over a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. While Russia says it has no intentions to do so, the United States says an invasion could happen any time.

    Commenting on the Bitcoin price plunge, Barbara Matthews, CEO of BCMStrategy said (quoted by Bloomberg), “The geopolitical situation in Europe and Ukraine is having material impact. But I think it’s underappreciated how much monetary policy continues to generate uncertainty and volatility in the markets.”

    Not such a haven asset at the moment

    Crypto enthusiasts will be disappointed to see that the Bitcoin price has not held up under increased global uncertainty.

    As the token has gained greater institutional adoption, many have been touting Bitcoin as an alternate haven asset to the likes of gold.

    However, the facts don’t support that.

    ASX gold shares have been surging today amid rising uncertainty, while the Bitcoin price has decidedly gone the other way.

    The post The Bitcoin price just fell 8%. What’s going on? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes could be the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now.

    *Returns as of January 12th 2022

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    The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns and has recommended Bitcoin. The Motley Fool Australia owns and has recommended Bitcoin.  The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • We steer clear of high-PE ASX growth shares: fund manager

    Woman in an office crosses her arms in front of her in a stop gesture.Woman in an office crosses her arms in front of her in a stop gesture.Woman in an office crosses her arms in front of her in a stop gesture.

    ASX growth shares have been hit hard in 2022 as interest rates prime up for a shift and inflation pressures dominate investor headlines.

    Growth shares are companies that are expected to grow at a much faster rate than both competitors and the market, and typically are earlier in their maturity cycle. Most earnings are reinvested back into the company versus being paid in dividends.

    Growth stocks have dominated in recent years

    These stocks generally trade at lofty valuations, as measured by price to earnings (P/E). Growth stocks will trade at a P/E higher than the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO)’s P/E ratio (which currently rests at 18.8x according to Bloomberg).

    Much of the reason is that people are prepared to pay a premium ‘today’ for access to this potential growth into the future. They will forgo returns today for a higher return way out into the future.

    In fact, the theme of growth has dominated the investment landscape over the prior decade, primarily as yields on long-dated bonds wiggled lower and real interest rates sunk to nearly 0%.

    This means the discount factor that is applied in the valuation of growth stocks has been equally as low. So investors have been happy to pay these premiums, seeing as the valuation seems ‘justified’. Some analysts will defend their assumptions with discounted cash flow projections and other methods as well.

    But as interest rates and yields on long-maturity bonds start to rise, this hurts the valuations on already ‘overpriced’ stocks, with a flow-on effect to market prices.

    On that front, many market pundits argue that one is ‘overpaying’ when purchasing these ‘overvalued’ stocks, and the risk is always going to be a correction down towards the ‘fair value’.

    And not to mention the high volatility that can be associated with growth – we’ve seen as much in 2022. After all, there is a trade-off between risk and reward in finance as we know.

    We can see this relationship between the yield/interest rate on the US 10yr Treasury note, a proxy used in asset valuations, and the Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSE: VUG). Investors should pay close attention to the inverse nature of how these two proxies trace each other. The relationship is especially tight in 2022.

    TradingView Chart

    One fund manager agrees with the market’s sentiment and remains adamant his fund’s discipline around valuation and seeking out undervalued companies has been integral to its success in recent periods. Let’s take a look.

    ‘Sensible cyclicality’ this fundie says

    Growth shares continue to face headwinds on global equity markets as we roll through the new year. A number of macroeconomic crosscurrents are feeding into the narrative and it all boils down to how asset valuations dance to the tune of interest rates, inflation and the real economy.

    Alphinity Investment Management fund manager, Andrew Martin is thinking along the same lines. The fundie notes his firm’s performance has benefitted well from its focus on stock valuation.

    Speaking to yesterday’s Australian Financial Review, Martin noted that his fund had made some recent changes and was running a more balanced portfolio due to the current macro-climate.

    “Our valuation and earnings leadership discipline has largely kept us out of the high PE, long duration growth stocks that have been coming off”, he noted.

    “With upward pressure from inflation on interest rates and discount rates, that still feels the right approach for now, although we are alert to opportunities in great businesses that can get caught up in the general sell-off”.

    Martin also noted that the recent turbulence in equity markets might have been somewhat warranted, particularly in view of what’s in store for investors from 2022 and beyond.

    “For now, adding a bit of cyclicality back in (given current inflation and growth outcomes) seems sensible”, the portfolio manager said. “Especially shares are the more “value-y” end; so resources, energy, financials”.

    That leaves Aplinity’s principal feeling constructive on a suite of potentially undervalued, defensible names that hold their mark on the ASX.

    “However, looking for decently priced defensives such as Amcor, Orora and Medibank would also be prudent”, Martin remarked.

    The post We steer clear of high-PE ASX growth shares: fund manager appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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  • Brokers give their verdict on the Telstra (ASX:TLS) share price post-results

    Two laughing male executives wearing dark suits chat across a timber lunch room table while one of them holds up his phone to show information about an ASX share

    Two laughing male executives wearing dark suits chat across a timber lunch room table while one of them holds up his phone to show information about an ASX shareTwo laughing male executives wearing dark suits chat across a timber lunch room table while one of them holds up his phone to show information about an ASX share

    The Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS) share price is defying the market weakness and is pushing higher.

    In afternoon trade, the telco giant’s shares are up 1.5% to $3.96.

    Why is the Telstra share price rebounding?

    Investors have been bidding the Telstra share price higher today after brokers responded largely positively to its half year results.

    For example, according to a note out of Morgan Stanley, its analysts have retained their overweight rating and lifted their price target on the company’s shares to $4.60.

    Morgan Stanley was pleased to see Telstra finally deliver organic earnings growth after five years of declines. Overall, this has given the broker confidence in the sustainability of the telco’s dividends.

    What else is being said?

    Over at Goldman Sachs, its analysts have retained their neutral rating with a $4.30 price target. Its analysts were pleased with the performance of Telstra’s key mobile business but note that weakness in the fixed business persists.

    Goldman said: “The key driver of the EBITDA beat was the +25% growth in Mobile EBITDA, +8% vs. GSe. Although impacted by accounting changes, service revenue trends were very strong. To drive continued growth, we believe TLS needs: (1) a recovery in int. roaming; or (2) mobile price rises.”

    “Continued competitive pressures and NBN regional roll-out drove a disappointing Fixed Ent. performance- with the decline in ARPU likely to continue, impacted by intense competition and technological evolution,” it added.

    Overall, Goldman is positive on Telstra and expects dividend increases to start from FY 2024. However, due to the current valuation of the Telstra share price, it is sticking with its neutral rating.

    Morgans remains bullish

    Elsewhere, the team at Morgans remain bullish on the Telstra share price. The broker has retained its add rating and $4.56 price target.

    Morgans commented: “TLS’s 1H22 result showed the second consecutive half of underlying growth, with underlying EBITDA up 5%, underlying EPS up substantially and the DPS flat yoy. Reported numbers dipped yoy due to lower NBN revenue and other one-off gains (which boosted 1H21 reported numbers). Mobile was the star performer. Performance is tracking in the right direction and FY22 guidance was re-iterated. We make minor EPS upgrades on lower D&A; retain Add and $4.56 TP.”

    The post Brokers give their verdict on the Telstra (ASX:TLS) share price post-results appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Telstra right now?

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns and has recommended Telstra Corporation Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) midday update: QBE sinks but Magellan rockets

    A stressed businessman in a suit shirt and trousers sits next to his briefcase with his head in his hands while the ASX boards behind him show BNPL shares crashing

    A stressed businessman in a suit shirt and trousers sits next to his briefcase with his head in his hands while the ASX boards behind him show BNPL shares crashingA stressed businessman in a suit shirt and trousers sits next to his briefcase with his head in his hands while the ASX boards behind him show BNPL shares crashing

    At lunch on Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to end the week in the red. The benchmark index is currently down 1% to 7,221 points.

    Here’s what is happening on the ASX 200 today:

    QBE shares sink on full year results

    The QBE Australia Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) share price is sinking today after its full year results fell short of expectations. For the 12 months ended 31 December, QBE delivered a 25.7% increase in gross written premium to US$18,453 million. This ultimately led to the insurance giant reporting an adjusted net cash profit after tax of US$805 million. This was well short of the market consensus estimate of US$870 million.

    Magellan shares shoot higher

    It has been a while, but today has been a good day for the Magellan Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MFG) share price. Its shares are shooting higher following the release of its half year results, which revealed first half profit growth of 16% to $248.1 million. In addition, the fund manager is planning a 1 for 8 bonus issue of options to shareholders and considering a share buyback.

    Inghams tumbles on half year results

    The Inghams Group Ltd (ASX: ING) share price is tumbling today following the release of its half year results. For the six months ended 31 December, the poultry producer reported a 5.9% increase in underlying net profit after tax to $39.7 million. This fell short of the consensus estimate of a net profit of $41.9 million. COVID-19 weighed heavily on its performance.

    Best and worst ASX 200 performers

    The best performer on the ASX 200 has been the Magellan share price with a 15% gain following the release of its results. Going the other way, the QBE share price is the worst performer with an 11% decline after its full year earnings fell short of expectations.

    The post ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) midday update: QBE sinks but Magellan rockets appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

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    Scott just revealed what he believes could be the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now.

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    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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