The Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) share price struggled today, closing 1.67% in the red at $5.31 apiece.

Whilst there’s been no market-sensitive announcements out of the airline’s camp today, news has surfaced that many of its customers are seeing red, accusing Qantas of jacking up its prices on certain flight bookings.

Let’s take a closer look at what’s being levelled at the company today.

Qantas in the firing line

Qantas customers have accused the airline of “dishonest” conduct and potentially “price gouging”.

It’s claimed Qantas is charging high premiums on airline bookings being made under its flight credit redemption scheme, according to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

Some customers say when they attempted to redeem flight credit vouchers, ticket prices were suddenly jacked up anywhere between 50%-300% higher than if they were to pay normally.

One customer said he paid more than three times the amount of a standard ticket under the scheme after Qantas restricted its seating options for voucher holders.

He ended up paying more than $1400 in flying credits for a return trip between Adelaide and Brisbane while his wife’s ticket cost only $437 for the economy seat next to him.

A slew of similar stories has emerged over recent weeks with many customers reporting they were struggling to get a response from Qantas on its flight credit redemption policies.

Now it seems Qantas customers holding credits should be aware of a key — and perhaps not so well known — policy.

Last year, Qantas changed its policy so that credit holders making a booking after 30 September 2021 could only use their credit to purchase a ticket of equivalent value or a more expensive seat.

In other words, if you hold a flight credit of $1,400, you’ll only find ticket options of $1,400 or more — even though the same seats might be available for much less if you were paying normally.

If the booking was made before 30 September, the flight credits could be used for multiple bookings.

Qantas says its policies offer “a lot more flexibility with booking than pre-COVID, but we still have some rules in place”.

According to the airline, most customers who qualify for a flight credit have until the end of 2023 to take their flights.

Qantas share price snapshot

After a bumpy year, the Qantas share price has climbed almost 17% in the last 12 months. This year to date, Qantas is up 6%, after climbing 6.14% over the past month.

The post ‘Deeply unfair’: Here’s why some Qantas (ASX:QAN) customers are seeing red appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• ‘Squawking’ bird? War of words erupts between Regional Express (ASX:REX) and Qantas (ASX:QAN)
• Qantas v the WA government: here’s the latest
• ‘Open for business’: Qantas (ASX:QAN) share price lifts amid CEO’s renewed optimism
• Why are ASX travel shares Flight Centre (ASX:FLT), Qantas and Webjet lifting off today?
• Frequent flyer: what changed for the Qantas (ASX:QAN) share price today?

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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Motley Fool Australia Chief Investment Officer Scott Phillips joined Peter Overton on Nine’s Late News on Sunday night to discuss the big geopolitical and economic week ahead, including the escalating tensions in Ukraine, the spectre of higher inflation and interest rates, and the unemployment numbers due on Thursday.

The post The week ahead: Russia, Ukraine, inflation, interest rates and unemployment: Scott Phillips on Nine’s Late News appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• These 3 ASX 200 shares are topping the volume charts on Monday
• Power surge! These 2 ASX 200 utilities shares are storming higher today
• Here’s how rich Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) shares have made ASX 200 investors over the past 2 years
• ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) midday update: JB Hi-Fi impresses, Crown accepts $8.9bn Blackstone bid
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

Motley Fool contributor Scott Phillips has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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It’s been a stormy start to 2022 for the majority of S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares and that volatility could be here to stay according to this expert.

The ASX 200 has fallen 2.6% since the final close of last year. This month has seen the index rebounding slightly, gaining 3.9% over February so far.

But investors might want to be prepared for more drama. T. Rowe Price chief investment officer and head of global multi-asset Sébastien Page, has warned of a slump in global markets.

“[I]t is too early to talk of a recession,” he said. “[But] the possibility of an economic slowdown beyond what has been priced into financial markets seems to be increasing.

“The new environment will be difficult to navigate – but it will also provide some excellent opportunities for stock pickers.”

Let’s take a look at what the professional believes investors should keep an eye out for in 2022.  

Could this rock the boat for ASX 200 shares in 2022?

For those exhausted by the impacts the cycle of COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns has had on the ASX 200 over the last 24 months, Page’s analysis will be music to your ears.

“Although it is too early to say that we are entering a post‑COVID world, it is clear that the pandemic is no longer the dominant driver of markets that it has been,” he said.

Rather than COVID-19, Page says price fluctuations will likely be the result of “a looming [United States (US)] Federal Reserve rate‑hiking cycle, tightening liquidity conditions, and the unwinding of pandemic‑era economic distortions”.

And while expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia could soon increase interest rates have likely born many ASX 200 shares unrest, the expert says that globally, rate rises often don’t bear any major downturns.

“We can observe that Fed rate hikes alone do not usually derail financial markets,” said Page. He continued:

Analysis by our Multi‑Asset Division shows that out of the 21 rate‑hiking cycles since 1974, the US equity market has delivered a positive return 17 times—an 81% hit rate—in the 12 months after a rate hike and 16 times— a 76% hit rate—in the first six months after the first hike.

So, what is worth worrying about? Well, Page says investors might want to keep an eye on inflation.

ASX 200 shares could be hit hard if growth factors such as low interest rates, pent-up demand, and pandemic-related stimulus come to an end.

“As the economy is expected to slow, inflation continues to fuel higher costs,” he said.

“Although rising costs in some areas may diminish in time, in other areas – for example, labour costs – they are beginning to look more permanent.

“The more permanent inflation becomes, the bigger dent it will have on consumer confidence and, ultimately, on consumer spending and corporate profits.”

Which ASX 200 shares could be buys?

While Page didn’t give any indication on which ASX 200 shares could prove buys in 2022, his Australian colleagues provided some insight earlier this month.

Randal Jenneke, head of Australian equities at T. Rowe Price, flagged iron ore giants BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) as 2022 buys.

He believes that as many global markets slow, China’s growth will likely continue unabated. Thus, demand for the steelmaking ingredient will strengthen.

Meanwhile, T. Rowe Price investment analyst Nick Vidale warned ASX 200 investors to steer clear of big bank shares like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) and National Australia Bank Ltd. (ASX: NAB).

The post Strap yourself in: Why ASX 200 shares could continue their wild ride in 2022 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Are ASX mining shares the place to be right now?
• Own CBA (ASX:CBA) shares? Here’s the bank’s next big tech move
• The iron ore price is rising: Time to jump on Rio Tinto shares?
• Analysts name 2 excellent ASX dividend shares to buy
• At today’s share price, is BHP (ASX:BHP) going to be a dividend juggernaut in 2022?

Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has managed to shrug off its earlier losses to be up 0.21% in late afternoon trading.

But ASX 200 gold shares are having a much better day. In fact, 3 of the top performing shares on the index today are gold miners with other ASX 200 gold shares not far behind.

Keeping it with the top 3, the Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) share price is up 6.88% at time of writing.

Meanwhile, Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL) shares have gained 7.17%.

And rival ASX 200 gold share Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) is also up 7.22%.

And remember, these companies all have market caps well north of $1 billion.

The price of gold

While many factors come into play to determine a company’s share price, ASX 200 gold miners are certainly benefiting from a rising gold price.

On 31 January, the yellow metal was trading for US$1,797 per troy ounce. Today, that same ounce is worth US$1,853, up some 3%.

Friday saw bullion post its biggest daily gain in four months as investors digested the news that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is looking increasingly likely and sought out the haven asset.

While we can only hope wiser heads prevail, US officials have been sounding the alarm bell.

On Sunday, US National security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN:

We cannot perfectly predict the day, but we have now been saying for some time that we are in the window, and an invasion could begin, a major military action could begin by Russia in Ukraine any day now – that includes this coming week, before the end of the Olympics.

How have these 3 ASX 200 gold shares been tracking?

The ASX 200 is down 4.8% so far in 2022.

By comparison, the Evolution Mining share price is down 3.8%; the Ramelius Resources share price is down 4.4%; while the Regis Resources share price is up 3.1%.

The post Why are ASX 200 gold shares rocketing today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why is the Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) share price having such a stellar start to the week?
• Why is the Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) share price leaping 8% today?
• ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) midday update: JB Hi-Fi impresses, Crown accepts $8.9bn Blackstone bid
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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With so many shares to choose from on the ASX, it can be hard to decide which ones to buy. The good news is that brokers across the country are doing a lot of the hard work for you.

Three top ASX shares leading brokers have named as buys this week are listed below. Here’s why they are bullish on them:

Baby Bunting Group Ltd (ASX: BBN)

According to a note out of Citi, its analysts have retained their buy rating and lifted their price target on this baby products retailer’s shares to $6.22. Citi believes Baby Bunting is well placed to outperform the broader small cap retail sector this year given the non-discretionary nature of its category. All in all, the broker believes the company can grow its earnings per share by a compound annual growth rate of 17% between FY 2021 and FY 2024. This is expected to be driven by its store rollout, margin expansion, and penetrating existing categories with low presence. The Baby Bunting share price is trading at $5.18 this afternoon.

REA Group Limited (ASX: REA)

A note out of Morgan Stanley reveals that its analysts have retained their overweight rating but trimmed their price target on this property listings company’s shares to $178.00. It believes that fears that interest-rate rises could hit the volume of Australian property listings are overdone. And with the REA share price down materially since the start of the year, the broker believes this could be a buying opportunity for investors. Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley suggests that the company may need to invest to fuel its future growth. This could include increasing its stake in Move. The REA share price is fetching $135.33 on Monday afternoon.

Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)

Analysts at Ord Minnett have retained their buy rating and trimmed their price target on this energy producer’s shares to $9.15. This follows a few minor adjustments to its valuation after reviewing Santos’ reserves. Outside this, the broker is positive on Santos due to its belief that it has opportunities to offload assets to strengthen its balance sheet and unlock value. The Santos share price is trading at $7.70 on Monday.

The post Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here’s why the Baby Bunting (ASX:BBN) share price has dived 5% in 2 days
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• 2 of the ‘best’ ASX shares to buy right now
• The REA (ASX:REA) share price has tumbled 21% this year. Is it a bargain?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Baby Bunting and REA Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The Regis Resources Limited (ASX: RRL) share price is catching the eyes of investors today.

In afternoon trading, shares in the $1.5 billion gold mining company are fetching $1.96, up 6.8% from its previous close.

Why is the Regis Resources share price shining today?

Investors are scrambling to buy shares in Regis Resources on Monday. This is despite the mining company not providing any announcements today.

Given the lack of corporate fodder, the catalyst for the company’s higher share price appears to be a broader one. In this case, a jump in the precious metal’s price looks to be the suspect behind the miner’s positive performance.

Amid a backdrop of increasing tensions between Ukraine and Russia, the price of gold has rallied ~1.5% since Friday morning. As a result, the safe-haven commodity is now holding at US$1,853 per ounce — putting prices on par with those hit on 25 January 2022, as shown in the chart below.

However, views are mixed on whether Russia is set to proceed with an attempted invasion. On one side, United States officials have warned that an attack could happen at any time. Whereas, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains steadfast that there is a lack of evidence to indicate Russia will make a move.

Nonetheless, it appears investors are not taking any chances and are increasing their exposure to a risk-off hedge.

This is supported by other gold miners, beyond Regis Resources, experiencing share price appreciation today. Some names include Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), and Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM).

What else?

Regis Resources recently appeared at the Bell Potter Unearthed conference. In its presentation, the company highlights a ‘step change’ in gold production in FY22. This was put down to its 30% interest in Tropicana, a 2.3 million ounce resource North-East of Kalgoorlie.

The mining company shared production guidance of 120,000 ounces to 135,000 ounces in FY22. Additionally, Regis expects this to be at an all-in sustaining cost of A$1140 to A$1230 an ounce.

Finally, the Regis Resouces share price is still down 43.6% over the last 12 months.

The post Why is the Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) share price having such a stellar start to the week? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) midday update: JB Hi-Fi impresses, Crown accepts $8.9bn Blackstone bid
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• These are the 10 most shorted ASX shares
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday

Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is now in the green so far this Monday after dipping into negative territory briefly after market open this morning. At the time of writing, the ASX 200 is up a tentative 0.13% and is currently sitting at 7,227 points. Happy Valentine’s Day indeed!

But let’s dig a little deeper and have a look at the ASX 200 shares that are currently at the top of the market’s trading volume charts, according to investing.com.

The 3 most traded ASX 200 shares by volume so far this Monday

Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS)

Pilbara Minerals is our first share of the day today. This ASX 200 lithium producer has had a sizeable 18.16 million shares change owners on the markets thus far. There has been no major news or announcements out of Pilbara today.

As such, we can probably place the blame for this high volume at the feet of the Pilbara share price itself. This company has taken a very heavy beating this Monday, and is currently down 5.75% at $3.04 a share. It’s this large drop that is almost certainly to thank for this elevated trading volume we see.

Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT)

ASX 200 energy share Beach is next up. Beach Energy has watched a substantial 23.4 million of its shares find new owners so far today. We don’t have to look too far for this one. Beach released its half-year results this morning, which have elicited a dramatic share price reaction.

As my Fool colleague James covered earlier, Beach reported a 66% increase in net profits after tax to $213 million, along with a 26% rise in earnings. Beach shares have reacted very positively too. This company is presently up a whopping 10.44% at $1.64 a share. This combination is almost certainly behind this high volume we see today.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC)

A rare ASX 200 bank appearance today, Westpac is our final and most traded share thus far. As it currently stands, a hefty 28.9 million Westpac shares have traded on the markets today. Again, we don’t have to look too far for this one. This morning, Westpac announced that its $3.5 billion share buyback program has wound up after strong demand from shareholders.

The bank now has 167.5 million fewer shares on issue than when it started, increasing the effective ownership of the bank for all remaining shareholders. Amid this, the Westpac share price has also pushed markedly higher thus far today. It’s currently sitting at $23.81, up a healthy 4.52% so far. These factors are probably behind so many Westpac shares flying around the markets today. 

The post These 3 ASX 200 shares are topping the volume charts on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Audinate, Pilbara Minerals, Praemium, and SKYCITY shares are falling
• Power surge! These 2 ASX 200 utilities shares are storming higher today
• Here’s how rich Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) shares have made ASX 200 investors over the past 2 years
• ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) midday update: JB Hi-Fi impresses, Crown accepts $8.9bn Blackstone bid
• Here’s why the Westpac (ASX:WBC) share price is storming higher today

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Westpac Banking Corporation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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In late afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on track to start the week with a small gain. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is up 0.15% to 7,228.3 points.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here’s why they are falling:

Audinate Group Ltd (ASX: AD8)

The Audinate share price is down almost 4% to $7.44. Although Audinate delivered a 31.6% increase in first half revenue to $20.2 million, investors appear concerned by its outlook. The audio-visual media networking solution provider revealed that it intends to increase its headcount materially and warned that supply chain issues will limit its second half growth.

Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS)

The Pilbara Minerals share price is down 5.5% to $3.04. This is despite there being no news out of the lithium miner today. However, it is worth noting that Pilbara Minerals isn’t the only lithium share falling today. The ETFS Battery Tech & Lithium ETF (ASX: ACDC) unit price is down a little under 2% today.

Praemium Ltd (ASX: PPS)

The Praemium share price is down 11.5% to $1.08 following the release of its half year results. For the six months ended 31 December, the investment platform provider reported a 25% increase in revenue to $39.2 million but a loss after tax of $2.8 million. The latter was down from a profit of $2.6 million in the prior corresponding period.

SKYCITY Entertainment Group Limited (ASX: SKC)

The SKYCITY share price is down 3.5% to $2.68. This morning the casino and resorts operator released its half year results and revealed a 35.6% decline in revenue to NZ$289.8 million and a loss of NZ$33.7 million. Management advised that its performance was materially impacted by COVID-19 disruptions.

The post Why Audinate, Pilbara Minerals, Praemium, and SKYCITY shares are falling appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• These 3 ASX 200 shares are topping the volume charts on Monday
• Audinate (ASX:AD8) share price lower despite stellar sales growth
• Ups and downs: Praemium (ASX:PPS) share price tumbles 12% following half-year results
• ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) midday update: JB Hi-Fi impresses, Crown accepts $8.9bn Blackstone bid
• Here are the 3 most heavily traded ASX 200 shares this Friday

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns and has recommended AUDINATEGL FPO and Praemium Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns and has recommended AUDINATEGL FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Praemium Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is enjoying a day of modest gains so far this Monday. At the time of writing, the ASX 200 is up 0.29%. But two ASX 200 energy utility shares are performing far better.

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) shares are currently outperforming the broader market. Origin shares have put on a robust 1.72% so far and are sitting at $6.215 each. That’s not too far from the company’s 52-week high of $6.37 that it hit just last week. After a lacklustre couple of years, Origin has really pumped the gas over the past year or so. Its 12-month gains now sit at around 43%, which includes an almost 19% rise over 2022 alone.

But that’s nothing compared to the AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL) share price. 

AGL shares are presently enjoying gains that would make even Origin blush. AGL is currently up by an enthusiastic 4% so far today and is now asking $7.115 a share. Like Origin, AGL has had a very tough couple of years. Ever since hitting more than $27 a share back in 2017, AGL has been suffering a very long and protracted fall.

The company found a new multi-decade low of just $5.10 a share back in November. But since then, this energy retailer has also been enjoying a renaissance. At today’s pricing, it is now up around 40% from those lows, although AGL still remains down by nearly 36% over the past 12 months.

So what is causing these two ASX energy utility shares to so comprehensively outperform the broader market today?

Are higher energy prices lifting AGL and Origin shares?

Well, we can’t be certain. It doesn’t appear these moves are related to any official news or announcements out of either company today. But there is something else going on that could be feeding investor sentiment. That is energy prices.

Since Origin and AGL are utility shares, generating and onselling energy services, they are fundamentally exposed to the cost of raw energy commodities such as oil, coal, and gas. And the cost of these commodities has been exploding in recent months. As recently as December, Brent crude oil was under US$70 a barrel. But today, it is well over US$90 a barrel. That might explain why both AGL and Origin shares have enjoyed such a healthy start to 2022.

But why is oil so hot right now? Well, the current tensions surrounding the energy-intensive states of Russia, Ukraine, and the United States seem to be pushing energy commodity prices through the roof. According to a recent report in the Australian Financial Review (AFR), “hedge funds say oil is on the cusp of hitting $US100 a barrel”. Portfolio manager of the Tribeca Natural Resources Fund Ben Cleary told the AFR, “$US100 oil is almost consensus now… I think the bigger question is, how high can oil go?”

Expectations of such acute pricing pressure in the energy markets may well be why investors are rushing into ASX 200 energy utilities like Origin and AGL today.

The post Power surge! These 2 ASX 200 utilities shares are storming higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here’s how rich Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) shares have made ASX 200 investors over the past 2 years
• AGL (ASX:AGL) blasted for ignoring shareholders and committing to ‘crumbling assets’
• ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) midday update: JB Hi-Fi impresses, Crown accepts $8.9bn Blackstone bid
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Is Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (ASX:VGS) an excellent investment for the long-term?

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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Shares in Aussie fund manager Magellan Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MFG) continues to sink. In afternoon trade on Monday the Magellan share price is down 0.22% at $18.07.

Magellan has been the ASX’s gossip-point these past few months. A string of high-profile moves and fund outflows sees the stock faltering to 52-week lows at the time of writing, after collapsing more than 63% in the past year.

Since 4 January, shares have collapsed another 16.5% as the negative momentum from 2021 spills into the new year. Magellan is now in the red across all major timeframes.

Has the Magellan share price bottomed?

Analysts from asset management and investment banking giant JP Morgan are concerned the recent departure of co-founder Hamish Douglass could spell further trouble for Magellan.

The firm notes that Magellan is now under considerable business pressure and ongoing uncertainty. Douglass’ withdrawal only adds to the weight.

“Following the surprise exit of Brett Cairns and subsequent appointment of Kirsten Morton as interim CEO,” the broker said, “the leave of absence being taken by Mr Douglass and appointment of Mr Mackay announced today add substantial uncertainty to the leadership at Magellan at a time when the business is facing enormous pressure around its performance and flows.”

“We are concerned now that there could be some risk of turnover in the investment team as a result of this, with possible further impacts to product ratings as well as MFG’s reputation amongst financial advisers, thereby impacting both retail and institutional flows.”

With the calamity, JP Morgan has wound back its price target on Magellan for 2022. It is now valuing the fund manager at $16.50 per share, down from almost $20 previously.

JP Morgan analysts acknowledge that Magellan has a strong track record and innovative product design. But they aren’t too rosy on its outlook in the near term.

“Despite valuation, we expect the stock to remain under pressure until fund performance improves and the near-term fund flow profile stabilises.”

Waiting for rock bottom

Meanwhile, analysts at Swiss investment bank UBS aren’t so sure. They note there could potentially be further downside imminent for Magellan shareholders.

UBS analysts believe the market has priced in each negative event in Magellan’s recent narrative. So much so, the share price now reflects a soup of fund outflows, high management fees and the key-person risk that Hamish Douglass presents with his recent departure.

Since, fellow co-founder Chris Mackay has stepped in. He has assured the market that Douglass has the full support of investors since making the decision to temporarily step back.

Nevertheless, UBS believes the market should have picked up these positive moves. Especially given the sharp run down in the fund’s share price.

Plus sharp downturns in two of the fund’s largest positions, Netflix and Facebook, have only added to the downbeat incremental performance that “does not appear to have turned the corner” in 2022, the broker says.

It rates the stock a sell and values Magellan at $17 per share. According to UBS, that suggests more than $1 of downside potential still yet to be priced in.

As to whether Magellan has bottomed or not… Judging by the view of these two brokers, the possibility of more downside is certainly on the cards. Unless the market sees otherwise and starts to drive shares north once more.

The post Down 60% in a year, has the Magellan (ASX:MFG) share price reached the bottom? Brokers weigh in appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• These are the 10 most shorted ASX shares
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to sell next week
• Why AGL, Magellan, Xero, and Zip shares are sinking
• ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) midday update: IAG upgrades guidance, Magellan sinks again
• Magellan (ASX:MFG) share price slides 6% as FUM bloodbath continues

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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