• Looking for better than 50% upside? This fast-food company could be worth a look

    A woman in a red dress holding up a red graph.

    Despite trading conditions Retail Food Group Ltd (ASX: RFG) has described as “challenging”, at least one broker says there are serious gains to be made in buying the company’s shares.

    Retail Food Group earlier this week put out a statement to the ASX updating the market on its debt refinancing and its expected first-half results.

    The company said it had refinanced its debt with a new $41.2 million facility with Washington H. Soul Pattinson & Company Limited (ASX: SOL), with the new facility providing another $7.5 million of headroom to finance its growth plans. The new debt was at an interest rate of 9%.

    Difficult start to the year

    The company also said that it expected the first half underlying EBITDA to come in at $9 to $10 million, down from $16 million for the first half in the previous year.

    This was due to challenging trading conditions during the second quarter, a lack of certain one-offs that would not be repeated during this period, and a lower-than-anticipated contribution from newer Beefy’s outlets.

    The company added:

    Earnings were also impacted by franchisee support initiatives relating to the above, including maintenance of wholesale coffee prices despite higher raw material costs, particularly green coffee beans.

    Retail Food Group also explored a potential sale of the Brumby’s Bakery business during the half, but decided to retain the business.

    Executive Chairman Peter George said:

    While Brumby’s attracted considerable interest from multiple parties, we were ultimately not convinced that the options available would be in the best interests of shareholders, franchisees, or team members at this time. Brumby’s remains profitable and is an important contributor to RFG’s performance, with this decision providing certainty for all brand stakeholders.

    In the earnings guidance, the company said cost initiatives were under, which were expected to deliver $1.2 to $1.8 million in savings this financial year and increase to $5 to $7 million during FY27.

    The company added:

    As a result of the above, RFG expects earnings to improve in 2H26 vs 1H26 and is guiding to FY26 Underlying EBITDA of $20.0-24.0m.  

    Analysts see plenty of upside

    The Shaw team, in a research note to clients, said the company’s valuation going forward was likely to be driven by how well it executes its growth tactics, both organically and via new store openings.

    They added:

    RFG has identified initiatives that can grow the business organically such as, implementation of new systems, conversion of legacy branded outlets into focus branded outlets, engagement of multi-site operators and expansion of company-owned stores. RFG management has indicated that it can leverage its systems, knowledge, network and overheads to bolt-on acquisition of branded food/beverage outlets. Value-accretive acquisitions could be a key valuation driver for RFG.

    Shaw and Partners has a price target of $2 on the shares compared with $1.28 currently. If achieved, this would deliver a 57% return to shareholders.

    Retail Food Group was valued at $80.2 million at the close of trade on Wednesday.

    The post Looking for better than 50% upside? This fast-food company could be worth a look appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Retail Food Group Limited right now?

    Before you buy Retail Food Group Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Retail Food Group Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    * Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

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    Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has positions in Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • ASX bank shares: One I’d buy and one I’d avoid

    A woman with red lipstick and tattoos pulls a face as though the situation is not looking good.

    ASX bank shares have had a slow start to the year, with investor sentiment weighing heavily on share prices, especially for the majors.

    This week’s interest rate hike and concerns that inflation is spiralling again have created more headwinds for the sector. The spotlight is well and truly on where ASX bank shares will go from here.

    But some parts of the sector have a far rosier outlook than others. Here’s one ASX bank stock I’d buy right now, and one I’d avoid.

    I’d buy Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) shares

    Judo is an Australian bank built to provide financial services and lending to small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) with a turnover under $100 million.

    The bank was founded in 2016, received its banking license in 2019 and was listed on the ASX in 2021. So it’s new in comparison to the Aussie majors. 

    What I like about Judo is that it sits apart from the rest of the banks in the sector. Unlike the big four, Judo is purely focused on SMEs, doing so through relationship-based banking rather than mass mortgages or consumer loans.

    This business model means that the bank is more sensitive to economic changes, but it also means it has a higher growth potential because it has good customer engagement and, therefore, business momentum.

    In its latest results for the first half of FY26, the bank reported strong loan growth and confirmed it was on track to meet its gross loans and advances (GLA) guidance of $14.2 to $14.7 billion in 2026. Judo also plans to boost its profit before tax to $190 million. 

    At the time of writing on Thursday morning, the bank’s shares are down 0.53% to $1.89 a piece. That represents a 5% increase for the year to date. 

    I’d avoid Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares

    I’m concerned that CBA shares are still well above fair value and that they could be due for a price correction this year. In fact, I think they could crash below $100 in 2026. 

    CBA’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at the time of writing is 24.86, which is much higher (and therefore more expensive) than most other banks’.

    The banking giant is also facing ongoing margin pressure from intense market competition in lending and deposit products. And the latest interest rate hike could pile even more pressure on the business to perform.

    In the short term, an interest rate hike means more earnings for CBA. But in the medium to long term, it can lead to stronger competition and even an increase in mortgage stress. As CBA is heavily exposed to mortgage lending, this could put huge pressure on its share price.

    At the time of writing on Thursday morning, CBA shares are 0.5% higher at $153.85. For the year to date, they’ve dropped 2.01%. 

    The post ASX bank shares: One I’d buy and one I’d avoid appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Judo Capital Holdings Limited right now?

    Before you buy Judo Capital Holdings Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Judo Capital Holdings Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    * Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

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    Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Why this ASX gold producer could be on the cusp of its next breakout move

    A man leaps from a stack of gold coins to the next, each one higher than the last.

    The share price of Resolute Mining Ltd (ASX: RSG) is little changed today, slipping 0.22% to $1.332. This comes despite the company releasing an important announcement to the ASX.

    Over the past 12 months, Resolute shares have surged more than 260%, ranking among the strongest performers across the ASX gold sector. That strong run may help explain why today’s news has not sparked an immediate rally.

    Let’s unpack what was released today.

    A key approval finally secured

    According to the update, Resolute announced it has been awarded a key mining permit for its Doropo Gold Project in Cote d’Ivoire.

    The permit is the final government approval required before the project can move into development and eventual production. It has been granted for an initial 20-year term, with the option to extend.

    Management described the approval as a major step toward building Doropo into the company’s next core producing asset. Once operational, Doropo is expected to play a central role in lifting group gold output beyond 500,000 ounces per year by the end of 2028.

    Doropo shapes the next phase of growth

    definitive feasibility study (DFS) released late last year outlined strong economics and a long mine life.

    At a gold price assumption of US$3,000 per ounce, the study delivered a post-tax net present value of about US$1.46 billion. It also outlined an internal rate of return close to 50%.

    Average annual gold production is forecasted at around 170,000 ounces over the life of the mine, with higher output expected in the early years.

    Cash costs and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) are projected to sit well below current spot gold prices, giving the project a solid buffer if gold prices soften.

    Resolute plans to fund development using its existing balance sheet, which should limit the need for large equity raisings.

    Construction is expected to begin in the first half of 2026, with first gold targeted for the first half of 2028.

    Existing operations provide support

    While Doropo sits at the centre of the company’s growth plans, it already operates producing gold mines in Mali and Senegal.

    These assets generate ongoing cash flow and provide operational diversification across West Africa. Management has been focused on improving reliability, managing costs, and using higher gold prices to strengthen the balance sheet.

    Foolish Takeaway

    Despite the importance of the update, investors appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach.

    Nonetheless, the Doropo mining permit removes a key source of uncertainty and allows the project to move into the development phase.

    The next phase will focus on delivery, including construction progress, cost control, and updates on funding and timelines.

    The post Why this ASX gold producer could be on the cusp of its next breakout move appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Resolute Mining Limited right now?

    Before you buy Resolute Mining Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Resolute Mining Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

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    Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • This software firm could deliver almost 50% returns, one broker says

    Man putting in a coin in a coin jar with piles of coins next to it.

    It wouldn’t be a great surprise if you’d never heard of IODM Ltd (ASX: IOD), considering its modest size and relative lack of profile.

    But the team at Shaw and Partners have had a look at the company and initiated coverage with a buy recommendation, while also adding the caveat that it’s a high-risk stock.

    So what is IODM?

    As the Shaw analysts explain, IODM is a provider of accounts receivable software tailored for the education market.

    The company apparently has 20 universities in the UK onboarded, or being brought onboard, “and has recently expanded into the US, Canada, Japan, Mexico and South America”, Shaw said.

    The company was founded in 2008 and, Shaw said, launched its IODM connect platform in 2021 with a focus on the global education sector.

    The Shaw team explained further:

    Today, the growth engine is the UK. IODM is demonstrating strong momentum in this market which we believe is only likely to gain further momentum in the years ahead. With a proven platform and reputation, it seems UK universities are increasingly receptive and key foreign exchange payment partners more engaged. Building on the success in the UK, IODM has recently expanded its revenue share agreements to cover four new regions, including the US, and has also introduced a new foreign exchange payment partner, TransferMate, to broaden its reach and introduce some competitive tension. Successful execution beyond the UK could be game changing for the stock.

    Growth expected to surge

    The Shaw team says the company has a demonstrated track record of customer growth and expects revenue to grow at a compound annual rate of 47%.

    The Shaw team added:

    We forecast IODM will be cash flow positive in FY27 and Cash EBITDA positive from FY28 onwards, which compares to losing $3.5m in FY25. We believe IODM has reached an inflection where its fixed cost base is covered allowing high incremental margins to be realised. This will be a key milestone for the stock and could lead to a re-rate.

    Good news released by the company recently included a deal to provide its platform to one of the “largest international student universities in the UK”, although it did not name that entity.

    Shaw and Partners has a price target of 23 cents on IODM shares, compared with 15.5 cents currently.

    If achieved, the price target would represent a gain of 48.4%.

    The company was valued at $92 million at the close of trade on Wednesday.

    The post This software firm could deliver almost 50% returns, one broker says appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in IODM Limited right now?

    Before you buy IODM Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and IODM Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    * Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

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    Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Are Beach Energy shares a good buy for passive income today?

    Worker working on a gas pipeline.

    2025 saw Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) shares deliver a record amount of passive income to eligible stockholders.

    The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stock paid a fully franked interim dividend of 3 cents per share on 31 March. If you owned shares, you’d then have received the all-time high final dividend of 6 cents per share on 30 September.

    That equates to a full year passive income payout of 9 cents per share, up from 4 cents per share in 2024.

    In late morning trade today, Beach Energy shares are down 2.4%, trading for $1.225 apiece. This sees the ASX 200 energy stock trading on a juicy, fully franked trailing dividend yield of 7.5%.

    For some comparison, rival Aussie energy giant Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares trade on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 6.5%. And Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares trade on a partly franked trailing dividend yield of 5.2%.

    On the share price front, Beach Energy stock is down some 18% over the past 12 months, while Santos shares are just about flat, and Woodside shares are up around 4%.

    Now, that’s the year just past. As for those upcoming Beach Energy dividends…

    What’s the interim dividend for 2026?

    Beach Energy shares are under some pressure today after the company released its half year results for the six months to 31 December (H1 FY 2026).

    The ASX 200 energy stock reported a 7% year on year decline in production to 9.5 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe). Revenue for the half year was down 1% to $981.7 million.

    And with underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) down 8% to $219.0 million, management cut the fully franked interim dividend to 1.0 cent per share, down from last year’s 3.0 cents.

    If you’d like to bank that passive income you’ll need to own shares by market close on 25 February. The stock trades ex-dividend on 26 February.

    While that’s not the best start to FY 2026 for passive income, Beach Energy is forecasting a significantly stronger second half to the year, with plans to increase gas production from its Waitsia plant. That could deliver a material uptick in the final dividend.

    According to Beach Energy CEO Brett Woods:

    Our steady financial footing and safe operational performance through a challenging half positions Beach for an active second half, particularly as Waitsia ramps up and offshore campaigns progress.

    The ASX 200 energy stock reaffirmed its fully year FY 2026 guidance of production in the range of 19.7MMboe to 22.0 MMboe.

    Beach Energy shares: buy, hold, or sell?

    Having recently run his slide rule over the ASX 200 energy stock, prior to today’s results release, Baker Young’s Toby Grimm said (courtesy of The Bull), “The oil and gas producer, BPT, remains constrained by its large exposure to less than favourable domestic gas markets, in our view.”

    Explaining his hold recommendation on Beach Energy shares, Grimm said:

    However, the continuing successful development of the Waitsia gas project in Western Australia underpins material production growth and increasing exposure to export pricing in coming years.

    Relatively low debt and an improved profitability outlook substantiates our reason to hold for now.

    The post Are Beach Energy shares a good buy for passive income today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Beach Energy Limited right now?

    Before you buy Beach Energy Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Beach Energy Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    * Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Bell Potter says this ASX 200 stock could rise 50%+

    A little boy in flying goggles and wings rides high on his mum's back with blue skies above.

    Nufarm Ltd (ASX: NUF) shares have had a tough 12 months, with the agricultural chemicals company’s share price falling sharply from its highs.

    However, with the ASX 200 stock trading at $2.26 today, Bell Potter believes the outlook may be improving for investors.

    Here’s what the broker is saying following Nufarm’s recent annual general meeting (AGM) update.

    What is the broker saying?

    Bell Potter highlights that comments made at Nufarm’s AGM point to a strong start to the new year, with management reaffirming guidance and highlighting improving conditions across key markets. The broker said:

    NUF’S AGM comments were positive pointing to a strong year. We note two key AGM comments as well as recent movements in indicators:

    Reaffirmation of guidance: NUF has made a positive start to the year. Reaffirming all elements of the guidance statement at the time of the FY25 result, which were: (1) Expect strong FY26e underlying EBITDA growth under normal conditions; (2) Crop protection EBITDA continuing to grow, moderating on the +18% YOY growth in FY25; (2) Seed technologies growth in EBITDA from hybrid Seed and targeting a $30m YOY improvement in the emerging platforms; and (4) Expect positive free cashflow in FY26e and net debt/EBITDA of ~2.0x (vs. 2.7x in FY25).

    Bell Potter also believes FY26 is shaping up as a year of solid earnings growth, supported by a sharper focus on cash generation and balance sheet repair. It adds:

    FY26 a strong year of growth: FY26 promises to be a year of strong growth in profitability. With NUF focused on free cash flow generation and delivering a significant reduction in leverage by year end.

    Early indicators look supportive

    The broker also highlighted early activity indicators that suggest demand conditions are improving, particularly in the higher-margin northern hemisphere crop protection markets. Bell Potter said:

    Early activity indicators: In general, initial acreage reports in the northern hemisphere have been supportive of demand for crop protection products and this is indicative of increased import activity into these markets, where YTD volumes are demonstrating double digit YoY gains. Australian soil moisture profiles are below average as is the three-month outlook. Omega-3 pricing indicators remain at levels broadly consistent with those seen at the FY25 result and demonstrating double digit YoY gains.

    Is it time to buy this ASX 200 stock?

    According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating on Nufarm’s shares with a price target of $3.60. Based on its current share price of $2.26, this implies potential upside of 59% for investors over the next 12 months.

    Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:

    Our Buy rating is unchanged. NUF continues to trade at a material discount to global peers (crop inputs ~9.3x FY26e EBITDA and seeds at ~10.0x FY26e EBITDA), despite favourable indicators for omega-3 returns in FY26e and demand indicators in the higher margin northern hemisphere crop protection markets looking generally supportive.

    The post Bell Potter says this ASX 200 stock could rise 50%+ appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Nufarm Limited right now?

    Before you buy Nufarm Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Nufarm Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    * Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Which company does Macquarie prefer, Woodside or Santos?

    An oil worker in front of a pumpjack using a tablet.

    As we come into reporting season, analysts have a pretty good view on where major energy companies lie, given that they report their production and revenue ahead of time.

    With that in mind, we’ve had a look at Macquarie’s recent research notes to see how they rank Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS).

    Firstly, though, let’s have a look at how the stocks have fared so far this year.

    Santos shareholders are sitting pretty well, with the stock increasing from $6.17 to $7.07, or 14.6%, over the year to date.

    In comparison, Woodside shares are up from $23.59 to $25.85, for a 9.6% gain.

    What do the analysts think        

    Looking at Santos first, the Macquarie team has an outperform rating on the stock and a 12-month price target of $7.77, which would be a 9.9% return from the current share price.

    Keep in mind that the company is also expected to pay a 4.7% unfranked dividend yield this year.

    Macquarie said it expected Santos to deliver an underlying net profit of US$1.01 billion and free cash flow from operations to come in at US$1.8 billion.

    The company’s gearing has already been reported at 26.8%, which is slightly higher than the company’s target of 15% to 25% the Macquarie team said, but with Santos’ Barossa gas project off the coast of the Northern Territory now generating cash flow, “Santos’s gearing should re-enter the range in 2026”.

    The Macquarie team said that now that Santos had “recovered” from the failed takeover lobbed by the XRG Consortium, the company was “derisking rapidly”, including by bringing Barossa online and soon the Pikka oil project in Alaska.

    Follow-up projects could include a final investment decision at Papua New Guinea liquefied natural gas or further development at Moomba in South Australia’s Far North, they said.

    The Macqaurie team said they’d also like to see “more active trading of certain assets” which could be sold to smaller players such as Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT).

    What about Woodside?

    When it comes to Woodside, the Macquarie team expects weakness in the share price, with a price target of $25, compared with $25.85 currently.

    The 6.2% dividend yield brings this up to almost breakeven.

    The Macquarie team expects underlying net profit to come in at US$2.69 billion, with several non-cash items expected to boost the result.

    They said the upcoming results could be interesting with regard to whether possible Chief Executive Officer candidates will step up, after it was announced that current boss Meg O’Neill will be leaving to go to BP.

    And while Woodside shares underperformed versus Santos in January, Macquarie is warning the company could shed more than its franked dividend amount in value during the reporting season due to its run-up over January.

    The post Which company does Macquarie prefer, Woodside or Santos? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Santos Limited right now?

    Before you buy Santos Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Santos Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    * Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

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    Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended BP. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • $5,000 invested in BHP shares 5 years ago is now worth…

    Happy miner with his arms folded.

    BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are down 1.18% to $51.78 at the time of writing on early Thursday morning. It means the shares are now 13.18% higher for the year to date and up 29.21% over the year. 

    So if I bought $5,000 of BHP shares 5 years ago, what would it be worth now?

    The miner’s shares are now trading 32.95% above where they were this time five years ago. This means that $5,000 invested back then would be worth a total of $6,647.50 today.

    What happened to BHP shares this year?

    The mining giant took the crown as the biggest stock on the ASX in January. BHP shares closed 2025 at $45.49 per share, but jumped 11.2% over the first month of the year to close January at $50.57. It was also one of the most-traded shares on the ASX.

    The increase was mostly fuelled by the miner’s latest half-year results. It revealed it had achieved record copper and iron production for the half-year ending 31 December 2025. Its iron ore production increased 2% to 134 million tonnes, with its Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) operations achieving record high shipments.

    Copper production was steady at 984,000 tonnes, but the miner lifted its full year FY26 copper guidance to 1,900kt to 2,000 kt (up from guidance of 1,800kt to 2,000 kt previously).

    Copper prices rose 32% to US$5.28/lb and iron ore prices were up 4% to US$84.71/wmt during the same period.

    Investors were clearly pleased with the result, with many scrambling to get their hands on BHP shares. 

    What’s ahead for 2026?

    The miner said it is focused on growing its copper and iron ore production in 2026, while also maintaining disciplined cost control. Major projects like Jansen Stage 1 are progressing, and further investments support BHP’s plans to increase copper output to 2 million tonnes within the next decade.

    But, analyst sentiment is mixed on whether the miner can deliver. TradingView data shows that most (10 out of 18) analysts have a hold rating on BHP shares. Another two have a sell or strong sell rating and six have a buy or strong buy rating.

    The target price is also varied. Some expect the shares to climb to $56.56 a piece over the next 12 months. This implies a potential 9.26% upside ahead, at the time of writing. Whereas others think there is potential for the shares to drop 27.36% to just $37.60 a piece by this time next year.

    The post $5,000 invested in BHP shares 5 years ago is now worth… appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in BHP Group right now?

    Before you buy BHP Group shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and BHP Group wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    * Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

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    Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • 1 ideal ASX dividend stock, down 50%, to buy and hold for a lifetime

    A young man wearing an open necked shirt and a stylish coat raises a glass of champagne as he smiles.

    Every so often, an ASX dividend stock falls far enough that it starts to look less like a short-term disappointment and more like a long-term opportunity. 

    That’s how I’m starting to think about Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE).

    Its share price is around $5.16, roughly 50% lower than this time last year. That kind of decline usually scares investors away. But when I take a step back and look at the business, the brands it owns, and the income it is expected to generate over time, I think this ASX dividend stock is worth serious consideration in the current environment.

    Why this ASX dividend stock has fallen so hard

    The sell-off in Treasury Wine Estates has not come out of nowhere.

    Over the past year, the company has been dealing with softer conditions in two key markets, the US and China. Demand for premium and luxury wine has weakened, customer inventory levels have been too high, and parallel imports in China have disrupted pricing for Penfolds. On top of that, changes to distribution in California created short-term earnings pressure in the US business.

    More recently, management has also reset expectations, flagged elevated leverage for a period, and cancelled a planned share buyback to focus on balance sheet strength and long-term brand health. None of this has been easy for investors to digest, and sentiment has taken a hit.

    That said, much of this pain is now well known and, in my view, largely reflected in the share price.

    Why I think the long-term income case still stacks up

    Despite near-term challenges, Treasury Wine Estates still owns some of the world’s strongest wine brands, led by Penfolds. These brands have pricing power, global recognition, and long lives. Wine demand may fluctuate year to year, but premium brands tend to endure over decades.

    What stands out to me for an income investor is that this ASX dividend stock is still expected to pay meaningful dividends as the business works through its reset. According to consensus estimates from CommSec, dividends per share are expected to be 21.5 cents in FY26, rising to 24.5 cents in FY27 and 25 cents in FY28.

    At the current share price of $5.16, that implies dividend yields of roughly 4.2% in FY26, 4.7% in FY27, and just under 4.9% in FY28. For a globally recognised consumer brand business, those are respectable yields, particularly if conditions improve over time.

    A business in transition

    What gives me some confidence here is that Treasury Wine Estates is not standing still.

    The company has begun a broad transformation program aimed at simplifying operations, optimising costs, and protecting brand strength. Management is targeting meaningful cost improvements over the next few years, while also taking deliberate action to rebalance inventory and stabilise key markets.

    This is unlikely to be a straight-line recovery. There will probably be more noise along the way. But if the business can stabilise earnings and gradually rebuild momentum, the combination of income and potential share price recovery could be attractive for long-term investors.

    For me, that’s the hallmark of a lifetime ASX dividend stock. One that can pay you to wait while the cycle turns.

    Foolish Takeaway

    Treasury Wine Estates is not without risk, and it is clearly dealing with a difficult period. But at around $5.16, a lot of bad news already appears to be priced in.

    With globally recognised brands, a renewed focus on long-term sustainability, and dividend yields that look increasingly attractive over the next few years, this ASX dividend stock stands out to me as one worth considering for buy-and-hold investors.

    The post 1 ideal ASX dividend stock, down 50%, to buy and hold for a lifetime appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Up 94% in a year, ASX All Ords gold stock strikes ‘thick gold-copper-silver intersections’

    Happy miner giving ok sign in front of a mine.

    ASX All Ords gold stock Antipa Minerals Ltd (ASX: AZY) is sliding today.

    Antipa Minerals shares closed yesterday trading for 72 cents. In morning trade on Thursday, shares are changing hands for 70 cents apiece, down 2.8%.

    For some context, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is down 0.3% at this same time.

    With today’s dip factored in, shares in the ASX All Ords gold stock remain up an impressive 94.4% over 12 months.

    The Aussie gold miner has been an obvious beneficiary of the surging gold price. While down from its recent record highs, gold is currently trading for US$4,965 per ounce. That sees the yellow metal up 74% in a year.

    And Antipa Minerals has hardly been sitting idle.

    Here’s what the miner just reported.

    ASX All Ords gold stock hits new copper and gold zones

    Antipa Minerals shares have yet to lift after the miner announced the final batch of assay results from the 2025 drilling campaign at its Minyari Gold-Copper Project, located in Western Australia.

    The ASX All Ords gold stock said the results included high-grade intersections, newly identified zones of mineralisation, several thick gold-copper-silver intersections, and a new copper discovery.

    Among those high-grade results, Antipa reported intercepting 24.7 metres at 1.4 grams of gold per tonne and 0.07% copper from 39.3 metres, including 2.3 metres at 6.8 g/t gold and 0.18% copper from 39.3 metres. And the lode remains open in all directions.

    Drilling at the new copper discovery, at the Yolanda prospect, intersected 44 metres at 0.07% copper from 40 metres to end-of-hole, which the miner said confirmed a 1.2-kilometre-long anomalous copper trend.

    Antipa Minerals aims to incorporate the 2025 drilling results into an updated Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) this month.

    What did management say?

    Commenting on the results reported by the ASX All Ords gold stock today, Antipa managing director Roger Mason said, “The final batch of CY2025 results are a tremendous way to wrap up last year’s drilling program, delivering multiple new gold discoveries in close proximity to our planned Minyari development.”

    Mason added:

    The identification of a new high-grade lode at Fiama and confirmation of a large-scale northern repeat structure strongly indicate the potential for additional Minyari style deposits to emerge close to the immediate development footprint. This reinforces the opportunity we have to materially grow the Mineral Resource base around future planned infrastructure.

    On the copper front, Mason noted:

    At the same time, intersecting thick copper mineralisation across a potential 1.2-kilometre open trend at Yolanda is a major breakthrough, highlighting the presence of a previously unrecognised, potentially very large scale, copper system beneath shallow cover.

    Mason said that Antipa Minerals’ 2026 drill program is “well advanced”, with field activities set to commence this quarter.

    The post Up 94% in a year, ASX All Ords gold stock strikes ‘thick gold-copper-silver intersections’ appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.