• ASX 200 drops, Nine rises and Centuria Industrial REIT falls

    white arrow dropping down

    The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) dropped by around 0.3% to 7,143 points.

    Here are some of the highlights from the ASX:

    Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC)

    The Nine share price went up around 0.7% today after announcing a media deal.

    Nine has signed agreements with Facebook and Google, following the Federal Government’s enacting of the ‘News Media Bargaining Code’.

    The deal with Facebook is for the supply of news video clips and access to digital news articles on Facebook news products, for a term of up to three years with a minimum amount payable over the term.

    The 5-year agreement with Google includes the supply of news content (excluding video) for Google’s News Showcase and other news products. Google will also expand its marketing initiatives across Nine’s platforms.

    Nine said in terms of guidance regarding these agreements, as well as the termination of Google’s previous sales agreement, and the ongoing growth in subscription revenue for Nine’s key mastheads, it expects growth in the publishing division earnings, before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) in FY22 (over FY21) in the range of $30 million to $40 million.

    Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX: CIP)

    The real estate investment trust (REIT) announced external revaluations for its 61 investment properties as it 30 June 2021.

    The ASX 200 share’s total portfolio increased to $2.9 billion. On a like for like basis, the portfolio valuation increased by $285 million, or 11%, from prior book values.

    That brought the pro forma net tangible assets (NTA) to $3.85 per unit, an increase of 16% from $3.33.

    Jesse Curtis, the fund manager of Centuria Industrial REIT, said:

    Strong sector tailwinds continue to provide long-term benefits to industrial real estate with e-commerce and onshoring increasing demand for quality industrial accommodation. CIP is a beneficiary of the buoyant tenant market with a number of assets delivering valuation gains on the back of strategic leasing. Over the course of FY21, CIP has leased approximately 196,000m2 demonstrating the increased tenant demand for industrial space, which is expected to continue given limited future land supply in in-fill markets.

    WISR Ltd (ASX: WZR)

    The business announced it had originated $77.1 million of new loans in the first two months of the fourth quarter of FY21. Wisr said it’s getting close to its 20th consecutive quarter of growth.

    It also said that its inaugural $225 million asset-backed securities ‘ABS’ transaction, the Wisr Freedom Trust 2021-1, has reached settlement, delivering a material reduction in Wisr’s cost of funds.

    Wisr CEO Mr Anthony Nantes said:

    It’s fantastic to see the continuation of our loan origination momentum. Our growth to date has us in prime position to aggressively grow market-show, as we scale towards our medium-term target of a $1 billion loan book. We’re delivering a clear competitive advantage through a superior alternative model that actually improves financial wellness, going far beyond the traditional lending experience to attract Australia’s most creditworthy customers.

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  • The rollercoaster ride continues for the Lynas (ASX:LYC) share price

    volatile as share price represented by scared looking people on roller coaster

    May was another choppy month for the Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) share price.

    Its shares started the month strong, rising almost 10% from $5.50 to $6.01 by 11 May. But by the end of the month, its shares had gone full circle, closing at $5.51.

    Why May was a rollercoaster ride for Lynas shares

    Rare earth prices cool down

    According to the Shanghai Metals Market, neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide prices have cooled down from ~US$83,000/tonne to ~US$75,300/tonne in May.

    Similarly, Trading Economics observes that neodymium prices topped out from March highs of more than ~US$133,300/tonne to under ~US$94,000/tonne. This brings neodymium prices to roughly breakeven year-to-date, but much higher than the subdued levels it was trading at last year.

    NdPr is a core material produced by Lynas, with its quarterly result highlighting 1,358 tonnes of NdPr production.

    Commodity producing companies are always to some degree anchored to spot prices. Classic ASX200 miners such as BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) are perhaps more extreme examples of where its shares rise and fall by the iron ore spot price.

    Despite Lynas’ recent investor presentation highlighting the company as one which “supplies essential materials to exciting growth industries” with “exposure to global megatrends and future-facing technologies” including electric vehicles, green technologies and robotics, a pullback in rare earth prices in the near-term could be a reason why its shares struggled to make headway in May.

    Lingering Chinese production concerns?

    A major catalyst behind the recent underperformance of the Lynas share price appears to be its quarterly results. The results read well at face value, with an improvement in production, rare earth prices and scoring a number of operational milestones.

    However, it only took a few sentences to wipe out a chunk of Lynas’ valuation, driving the almost 20% decline in the Lynas share price between 20 to 22 April. The quarterly observed that several Chinese rare earth producers had planned to increase production. China is responsible for more than half the world’s rare earth production, and among its plans to increase production was the behemoth Northern Rare Earth.

    This Chinese company accounts for some 60% of China’s total rare earth production, with plans to double production in the next three years.

    An optimist could say that the increase in production is in response to the rising demand for electric vehicles and green technologies. But an influx of Chinese production could also weigh on prices in the medium to long term.

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  • A2 Milk (ASX:A2M) share price lifts on China child policy change

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    It’s shaping up to be a positive day for the A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) share price following a shift in China’s child policy.

    At the time of writing, the milk and infant formula company’s shares are trading 2.54% higher to $5.66.

    China upgrades the infant formula market potential

    The A2 Milk share price is not alone in today’s rejuvenated optimism. Other infant formula makers are enjoying some green on the back of China’s government revising its policy limiting couples to two children.

    China will now support couples to have a third child, according to a meeting of the Political Bureau held on Monday. The policy change is in response to China’s aging population, with people aged over 60 accounting for 18.7% of the country’s population in 2020.

    Obviously, an increase in the fertility rate for what was already considered to be the biggest growth engine for infant formula producers pre-COVID bodes well for associated companies.

    Today’s reaction is a little déjà vu. Back in late 2015, China increased its child policy from one to two. Shares in publicly traded infant formula companies received a boost following the change.

    Interestingly, smaller players like Bubs Australia Ltd (ASX: BUB) have done particularly well out of the news. The Bubs share price surged over 20% following the development.

    Doesn’t break the A2 Milk share price drought

    Much like one good downpour of rain, the gains from today doesn’t dispel the months of losses.

    COVID-induced demand waning has forced A2 Milk and others to downgrade its FY21 guidance. The last month was no exception, with the A2 Milk share price souring by 23%.

    Unfortunately for shareholders, the company’s full-year revenue estimate is now NZ$1.2 billion to NZ$1.25 billion. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) suffered the same fate – lowered to between NZ$132 million to NZ$150 million.

    Even with today’s gain, the A2 Milk share price 71.7% down from its all-time high of $20.05 a share. As they say, “When it rains it pours” – shareholders would be hoping the same applies for positive news.

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  • ASX investors were buying this US share over Tesla last week

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    Most weeks, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)’s CommSec brokerage service tells us the most popular US shares that its Aussie investors were buying and selling the previous week.

    Since CommSec is one of the most popular share trading platforms on the ASX, this data provides some useful insights into what is piquing the wallets of ASX investors beyond our shores.

    My Fool colleague James Mickleboro has already covered some of the ASX’s most popular shares today. So here are the top 10 US shares that CommSec users were buying and selling last week. This week’s data covers 24-28 May.

    Move over Tesla, AMC’s in town

    1. AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE: AMC) – representing 6.2% of total trades with a 58%/42% buy-to-sell ratio.
    2. GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) – representing 5.2% of total trades with a 77%/23% buy-to-sell ratio.
    3. Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) – representing 4.6% of total trades with a 66%/34% buy-to-sell ratio.
    4. Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) – representing 2.6% of total trades with a 66%/34% buy-to-sell ratio.
    5. Nio Inc – ADR (NYSE: NIO) – representing 1.3% of total trades with a 70%/30% buy-to-sell ratio.
    6. Palantir Technologies Inc (NYSE: PLTR) 
    7. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT)
    8. Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ: COIN) 
    9. Airbnb Inc (NASDAQ: ABNB)
    10. Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (NYSE: SPCE)

    What can we learn from these trades?

    Well, a major coup in last week’s data. The long-time dominator of the most popular US shares for ASX investors – the electric car and battery manufacturer Tesla – has been displaced after months at the top of the pile. ASX investors pushed Tesla aside last week for the American cinema chain AMC Entertainment. AMC has been a popular share for a while now on this list. But it has never cracked the top spot before (to this writer’s knowledge, anyway).

    AMC was a company hard hit in the pandemic last year, falling 68% between 14 February and 23 April. But it appears to be the object of some turnaround plays ever since. This has hit the next level over the past month or so since the infamous stock-picking group WallStreetBets seems to have taken up its cause. Back on 3 May, AMC was a US$9.70 share. Today, it’s a US$26.12 one, having put on an astonishing 170% or so over the past month. No wonder ASX investors have taken notice. It also seems as though many of these investors are taking profits, with 42% of AMC trades last week being sells.

    A changing of the guard?

    The other popular US shares last week were also the subject of above-average selling pressure too. When we looked at the most popular US shares last week, Tesla was at the top of the pile with a 79%/21% buy-to-sell ratio. This week’s numbers give us a 66%/34% ratio. So clearly some investors are ducking out of Tesla, perhaps to chase AMC shares. We see a similar pattern with GameStop.

    In other news, this week sees the reemergence of Airbnb and Virgin Galactic after a few months of these companies seemingly dormant in the minds of ASX investors. Airbnb shares have actually been on the back foot in the past month, losing around 17% of their value. 85% of Airbnb trades were buys though, so there are obviously at least some investors who are ‘buying the dip’ there. But Virgin Galactic has rocketed more than 100% since 14 May, so it’s not hard to see why investors are chasing that one.

    It will be interesting to see if this week’s stats prove a blip, or else some kind of realignment when we check out next week’s numbers! 

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  • 2 highly rated ASX growth shares

    rising share price of a company

    A new month is here, so what better time to look for new additions to your portfolio.

    If you have room for a growth share or two, you might want to consider the shares listed below. Here’s what you need to know about them:

    Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG)

    The first ASX growth share to look at is Breville. This appliance manufacturer has been growing at a solid rate in recent years thanks to its international expansion and favourable industry tailwinds.

    In respect to the latter, COVID-19 has led to more cooking and working at home, which has underpinned an increase in demand for whitegoods such as cooking equipment and coffee machines.

    Demand was so strong that Breville reported stellar sales and profit growth during the first half of FY 2021. The company posted a 28.8% increase in revenue to $711 million and a 29.2% increase in net profit after tax to $64.2 million.

    Looking ahead, management is confident its strong performance will continue in the second half. It is guiding to earnings before interest and tax of $136 million. This is up from its previous guidance of $128 million to $132 million and will be a 20% increase year on year.

    UBS is positive on its long term growth thanks to its strong market position, new product launches, and its expansion into new markets. The broker has a buy rating and $35.70 price target on its shares.

    NEXTDC Ltd (ASX: NXT)

    Another ASX growth share to look at is NEXTDC. It has nine world class data centres across Australia and a rich partner ecosystem that comprises over 660 clouds, networks, and ICT specialty services. It is also currently looking to expand its offering into both Singapore and Tokyo, which offer huge market opportunities.

    In the meantime, though, NEXTDC is generating significant revenue and earnings in the Australian market. For example, during the first half of FY 2021, the company reported a 27% increase in data centre services revenue to a record $121.6 million and a 29% increase in EBITDA to $65.7 million. This was underpinned by a 33% lift in contracted utilisation to 71MW, a 16% lift in customers, and a 16% rise in interconnections.

    Positively, more of the same is expected in the second half. This is being driven by the ongoing shift to the cloud, which has led to very strong demand for capacity in its centres. So much so, a good portion of its planned capacity additions have already been contracted.

    UBS is also a fan of NEXTDC. Its analysts currently have a buy rating and $15.40 price target on its shares.

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  • Worley (ASX:WOR) share price continues to fall despite second contract win

    A stockmarket chart on a red background with an arrow going down, indicating falling share price

    It has been a disappointing day for Worley Ltd (ASX: WOR) shares, having spent the entire day in the red. This comes despite the company announcing a contract award with Celanese, and now a deal with international fuel supplier, Shell.

    During late afternoon trade, the global engineering company’s shares are down 0.47% at $10.51 apiece.

    Let’s take a close look at what the company updated the ASX with today.

    Second contract win

    In its announcement, Worley advised it has won a contract from Shell for a green hydrogen hub in the Netherlands.

    This marks an important project for Worley as it supports the development of a new 200-megawatt electrolysis-based hydrogen plant in Rotterdam. Worley prides itself on being a part of sustainable projects, creating cleaner energy for customers around the world.

    The new plant will be powered by renewable energy from an offshore windfarm that is currently in development. Once complete, the green hydrogen plant will be one of the largest commercial green hydrogen production facilities in the world.

    The green hydrogen hub is expected to be operational by 2023, producing between 50,000 and 60,000 kilograms of green hydrogen each day. Initially, the clean fuel alternative will be used to decarbonise Shell’s nearby refinery in Pernis, and support the heavy transportation industry.

    Under the services contract, Worley will provide early engineering services for the green hydrogen plant. This includes integrating with other assets such as offshore wind, pipelines, electrical grids and Shell’s Pernis refinery.

    The project will be managed by Worley’s offices in The Hague, Netherlands. Furthermore, ongoing support will derive from the company’s hydrogen subject-matter experts and Global Integrated Delivery team in India.

    Comments from the CEO

    Worley CEO, Chris Ashton welcomed the deal with Shell, saying:

    As an Australian company operating globally, we are pleased to be working with Shell on this first-of-its- kind project. We look forward to supporting Shell’s strategy to be a provider of net-zero emissions energy products and this project is an example of how Worley can help our customers achieve their goals and own purpose of delivering a more sustainable world.

    Worley share price update

    Regardless of today’s dips, Worley shares are still more than 20% higher from this time last year.

    The company is ranked 93rd in terms of the largest market capitalisation on the ASX, with $5.4 billion.

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  • Why the Kogan (ASX:KGN) share price was sold off in May

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    The Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN) share price continued its disappointing decline in May.

    The ecommerce company’s shares lost 8% of their value during the month. This meant the Kogan share price was down 60% from its 52-week high.

    And that’s despite the company’s shares rebounding 17% after hitting a 52-week low during the month.

    Why did the Kogan share price tumble in May?

    The Kogan share price was sold off last month following the release of a disappointing trading update.

    According to the update, Kogan is expecting to report adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $58 million to $63 million in FY 2021. This represents growth of just 16.7% to 27% on FY 2020’s adjusted EBITDA of $49.7 million.

    This is a significant slowdown on what it was reporting early on in the financial years. For example, during the first half, Kogan reported adjusted EBITDA of $51.7 million. This was up a massive 184.4% on the prior corresponding period.

    In addition to this, the company’s FY 2021’s result also includes the Mighty Ape business, which was acquired for $122.4 million last year. When announcing the acquisition, management was expecting the business to contribute EBITDA of A$14.3 million in FY 2021.

    If Mighty Ape has contributed this, then it would mean the core Kogan business has actually posted a decline in EBITDA in FY 2021.

    Why is Kogan underperforming?

    Management revealed that it has struggled with its inventory management in FY 2021. It appears to have been anticipating that the heightened sales activity would last longer and therefore loaded up on inventory.

    Unfortunately, sales slowed and Kogan was left with a significant excess of inventory across its warehouses. Things were so bad that the company incurred millions of dollars in demurrage costs at ports for inventory it didn’t have room for.

    This had a threefold impact on the company’s operations. As well as the extra storage costs, the company is discounting product to shift it and increasing its marketing spend to boost sales.

    Shareholders will no doubt be hoping that June is kinder to the Kogan share price.

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  • Why the Nuix (ASX:NXL) share price fell 30% in May

    An ASX investor looks devastated as he watches his computer screen, indicating bad news

    The Nuix Ltd (ASX:NXL) share price has finished a dramatic month 30.23% lower than where it started.

    Over the course of the month, the software company faced a series of investigative reports and its second revenue downgrade for 2021.

    After starting the month at $4.15, the Nuix share price closed yesterday trading for $2.78.

    May was the second month in a row that saw a poor performance from Nuix shares. The Nuix share price was driven 19.8% lower over April after the company downgraded its 2021 financial year guidance only weeks after reaffirming it.

    Let’s take a closer look at the troubles the Nuix share price has faced in May.

    Manic May for the Nuix share price

    Last month, before its major troubles had even begun, the Nuix share price had fallen 16%. The drop appeared to be a delayed reaction to its April downgrade.

    Nuix’s real trouble started on 17 May.

    Investigations

    That morning, Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd‘s (ASX: NEC) Australian Financial ReviewThe Age, and The Sydney Morning Herald began publishing a series on a joint investigation into Nuix.

    The series involved 5 articles that ran daily over the course of a week.

    Within the articles, the media outlets claimed Nuix had been poorly governed and had a history of bad financial disclosures.

    Most of the claims were related to Nuix’s co-founder and former chair Tony Castagna, and his 2018 money laundering and tax evasion charges. Castagna was acquitted of the charges in 2019.  

    The publications claimed Castagna left Nuix’s board the day its prospectus was released, meaning many Nuix investors wouldn’t have known Castagna was involved with the company.

    They also made allegations about an options package, given to Castagna in 2005.

    According to the publications, Castagna was issued 300,000 shares in Nuix for $3,000 in 2005, but only one piece of paperwork noted the options’ existence until 2011.

    The options were supposedly cashed out for $80 million during Nuix’s ASX debut.

    The publications questioned if the options were given to Castagna in 2011 and backdated to 2005.

    The AFP has begun an investigation into the options package. But, they haven’t stated exactly what about the package is suspicous.

    Nuix cut its ties with Castagna on Friday, sending its share price falling once more.

    Class action lawsuit

    A second option package has kept Nuix on its toes recently.

    The three Nine publications claimed Niux’s former CEO, Eddie Sheehy, is taking legal action against Nuix over his 2008 remuneration package.

    Apparently, Sheehy was told options within his remuneration package weren’t applicable for a 50 for 1 share split, which Nuix conducted in 2017. Sheehy claims the share split cost him $118 million.

    Another 2 class actions are also being evaluated by law firms. They mainly relate to prospectus forecasts that were missing during Nuix’s first year on the ASX.

    Another downgrade

    Yesterday saw May’s final blow to the Nuix share price.

    The company delivered yet another downgrade. This time it stated its pro forma revenue will be between $173 million and $182 million for the 2021 financial year.

    Nuix’s previous guidance (its April downgrade) stated its pro forma revenue would be between $180 million and $185 million over the 2021 financial year.

    Nuix share price snapshot

    The poor month’s performance has added to the Nuix share price’s recent woes.

    Currently, the Nuix share price has fallen 65% since its initial public offering (IPO) on the ASX in December.

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  • 2 top ETFs to buy in June 2021

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    Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can be an effective way for investors to get exposure to a region or sector of the share market.

    Technology businesses are often the businesses that are creating the products of ‘tomorrow’, so it might beneficial to get exposure to that sector. These two ETFs are potential options:

    Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ)

    This investment is about giving investors exposure to 100 of the largest businesses on the NASDAQ. This is a stock exchange in the US.

    You’ll find many of the world’s most well-known tech companies in this portfolio including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Facebook, Alphabet, Tesla, Nvida, PayPal, Adobe and Netflix.

    But this ETF is more than just a tech ETF. It has plenty of other global leaders in its portfolio like PepsiCo, Costco, Mondelez, Moderna and Kraft Heinz.

    As a group, the NASDAQ 100 has performed strongly, even after the management fee of 0.48% per annum.

    Over the prior five years, the Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF has produced an average return of 26.4% per annum. That’s higher than the long-term average return of 10% per annum.

    This could be an effective way to diversify ASX-focused portfolios considering almost half of the NASDAQ 100 is weighted to technology businesses, whilst technology only accounts for a single digit percentage on the ASX.

    Investors also get a lot of global diversification from the underlying earnings. Businesses like Microsoft and Facebook generate earnings from almost every country in the world.

    Betashares Asia Technology Tigers ETF (ASX: ASIA)

    This is an ETF where the idea is for investors to be able to get exposure to many of the biggest technology businesses in Asia, outside of Japan.

    It has a total of 50 holdings. You may have heard of some of the largest portfolio allocations including: Tencent, Samsung, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Alibaba, Meituan, Pinduoduo, JD.com, Sea, Infosys and Netease.

    It’s not just the West that gives exposure to large tech businesses that have involvement in things like e-commerce, cloud computing, semiconductors and artificial intelligence. Asia has those businesses too. 

    Almost three quarters of the portfolio is invested in businesses that are listed in China and Taiwan. Another fifth is allocated to South Korean companies. The only other meaningful country allocation is a 5.7% position in Indian businesses.

    The annual management fee of this ETF is 0.67% per annum. Despite the fee, since inception in September 2018, the ETF has delivered an average net return per annum of 30.5%.

    However, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

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  • Why CSL (ASX:CSL) and this ASX healthcare share are rated as buys

    rising medical asx share price represented by excited doctors dancing in ward

    The healthcare sector has been a great place to invest over the last five years. Since this time in 2016, the S&P/ASX 200 Health Care index has risen an impressive 98%.

    This compares to a ~34% gain by the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over the same period, excluding dividends.

    While there’s no guarantee that the sector will continue this outperformance over the next five years, there are a number of positive tailwinds that are supportive of growth. This could make it worth considering a long term investment in the space.

    But which ASX healthcare shares should you consider? Here are two that are rated highly:

    CSL Limited (ASX: CSL)

    CSL is one of the world’s leading biotherapeutics companies. Its shares are up approximately 150% over the last five years due to a number of factors. This includes successful acquisitions, its high level of investment in research and development (R&D) activities, its growing plasma collection network, and its leading therapies and vaccines.

    In respect to its therapies, CSL’s portfolio includes lucrative and life-saving products such as Privigen, Hizentra, Idelvion, and Afstyla. These will be added to in the coming years thanks to its almost billion-dollar annual investment in R&D.

    One broker that sees value in the CSL share price at present is Credit Suisse. The broker currently has an outperform rating and $315.00 price target on its shares.

    Pro Medicus Limited (ASX: PME)

    Pro Medicus is a healthcare technology company. It provides healthcare organisations with radiology information systems (RIS), picture archiving and communication systems (PACS), and advanced visualisation solutions.

    Thanks to its industry-leading technology and the structural shift away from legacy systems, Pro Medicus has been growing at a strong rate in recent years. Pleasingly, this has continued in FY 2021. For example, during the first half, the company reported a 7.8% increase in revenue to $31.6 million and a 25.9% jump in underlying profit before tax to $18.76 million.

    Looking ahead, the company still has a large pipeline of sales opportunities that could be converted in the near future and drive further growth over the next decade.

    Goldman Sachs is a fan of Pro Medicus. It currently has a buy rating and $53.80 price target on its shares.

    Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

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