A report from Canaccord Genuity has given a mixed outlook on some of the largest ASX healthcare shares including ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD), Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH) and CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares. 

The healthcare sector is coming off a tough 2025. 

The S&P/ASX 200 Health Care (ASX: XHJ) Index dropped almost 25% last year. 

It was largely dragged down by a 39% fall from CSL shares. 

The Reporting Season Preview report from Canaccord Genuity/Wilsons Advisory said with the sector still heavily out of favour and valuations broadly discounted relative to history, there is potential for meaningful share price swings within the sector.

Greg Burke, Equity Strategist, said the financial advisory firm expects another mixed set of results this reporting season.

He said ResMed, CSL and Cochlear are the key large-cap stocks to watch.

ResMed shares

ResMed shares remain down more than 8% over the last 12 months. 

However the healthcare stock did deliver a strong quarterly update last week. 

The recent report from Canaccord Genuity said ResMed remains a high-conviction exposure.

It said the stock is in an upgrade cycle that is expected to continue over the medium term.

This is supported by healthy top-line growth from robust CPAP demand and ongoing gross margin expansion. 

Consensus estimates remain conservative, particularly on gross margins, leaving significant scope for further upgrades.

Cochlear shares

Cochlear shares are currently trading almost 17% below their 52-week high.

The report from Canaccord Genuity said Cochlear has delivered three successive downgrades, driven by its services segment, which is reason for caution heading into its result. 

While management has already guided to a soft 1H result due to a 2H earnings skew, we see risks that this skew is not fully reflected in consensus or well understood by the market. That said, despite near-term downgrade risk, the medium-term growth outlook – supported by the Nexa system rollout – remains attractive.

The report said any post-result weakness could present an attractive buying opportunity in the stock.

It is set to release earnings results on 13 February. 

CSL shares 

CSL shares are trading almost 33% below their 52-week high. 

According to Canaccord Genuity, CSL was arguably the highest profile underperformer of 2025.

The company has now issued four successive downgrades. Bulls argue the stock is excessively cheap, trading at a forward P/E of 17.5x – its lowest in 10 years – while still offering reasonable growth, with a 3-year consensus EPS CAGR of 9%. Bears counter that CSL faces structural headwinds and, as it remains in a downgrade cycle, consensus figures remain at risk.

CSL is set to release earnings results on 11 February.

The post What can investors expect from ResMed, Cochlear and CSL shares this reporting season? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• 3 ASX stocks with global revenue to diversify your portfolio

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL, Cochlear, and ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL and Cochlear. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Earnings season can be a difficult period for investors to navigate.

Investing before an ASX company releases its February earnings can offer upside if results beat expectations. 

But it also carries higher risk because unexpected disappointments can trigger sharp price drops. 

Investing after the earnings release reduces uncertainty. It allows investors react to confirmed information and guidance, though some of the biggest price moves may already be priced in, limiting short-term upside.

Here is an updated outlook for two ASX REIT stocks this earnings season. 

Centuria Office REIT (ASX: COF) 

Yesterday, we saw share price swings for Centuria Office REIT following the release of HY26 results.

The share price fell roughly 2% before midday before recovering to finish 0.94% higher at approximately $1.07 per share. 

A report from Bell Potter noted funds from operations (FFO) of 5.6 cents per share was slightly below expectations, coming in 0.9% under Bell Potter’s forecast.

Despite this modest first-half earnings miss, the company reaffirmed its FY26 guidance for FFO of between 11.1 cents and 11.5 cents per share, with the midpoint of the range sitting 0.9% ahead of Bell Potter’s estimate.

The ASX REIT also reaffirmed its full-year distribution guidance, with dividends per share expected to be 10.1 cents, signalling confidence in the full-year earnings and income outlook.

Bell Potter also noted some key vacancies at 818 Bourke St (currently 25% vacant) and 201 Pac Hwy (33% vacant) remain outstanding, which limits upside. 

Following yesterday’s results, the broker has placed a hold recommendation on the REIT, along with a price target of $1.05. 

While we don’t necessarily see numerous short term upside catalysts for COF, 1H26 outcomes suggest the likelihood of downside to guidance has reduced following the de-risking of FY26 expiries.

Charter Hall Retail REIT (ASX: CQR)

Charter Hall is set to release results tomorrow on Friday 6 February. 

The company owns and manages a portfolio of convenience-focused retail properties. These include supermarket-anchored neighbourhood and subregional shopping centres, service stations, and some retail logistics properties.

It has performed well in the last year, rising roughly 20% in that span. 

It closed yesterday at $3.87. 

However, Citi currently has a buy rating and $4.50 price target on its shares.

Additionally, it is projecting dividend yields of more than 6%. 

This could be an example of an REIT that investors may want to target before earnings results are released. 

It has shown a track record of successful capital deployment and improving margins recently. 

Should Charter Hall match or exceed expectations, the share price may jump considerably. 

The post Are these ASX REITs a buy, hold or sell this earnings season? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Charter Hall Retail REIT. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX consumer discretionary stock Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX: JIN) is in focus after a rough day of trading. 

Yesterday, the consumer discretionary stock tumbled almost 5% after it released its preliminary 1H26 Financial Results.

The company operates in the lotteries sector. It develops technology to manage lottery businesses and charity lotteries. It is also a major digital retailer of both national jackpot and charity lotteries in Australia.

Jumbo said revenue is forecast to increase 29% to $85.3 million in the first half. This is supported by a 15.7% rise in total transaction value (TTV) to $524.7 million.

Underlying EBITDA is also expected to grow strongly, reaching $37.5 million for the half, up 22.6% from $30.6 million in the prior corresponding period.

Despite seemingly positive results, it seems investors were left disappointed, as the stock price tumbled on the back of the news. 

What’s Bell Potter’s view?

Following yesterday’s release, Bell Potter provided updated guidance on this ASX consumer discretionary stock. 

The broker said Jumbo’s first-half result shows solid execution in diversifying away from lotteries, with SaaS, Managed Services, and charity and proprietary products driving growth and lifting non-TLC revenue to an estimated 39% of total revenue, up from 29% in FY25. 

However, this strength masks weakness in Lotteries, with total transaction value of $207.9m coming in 6% below expectations. 

According to the report, this points to potential market share pressure at Oz Lotteries or softer-than-expected digital penetration. 

Greater clarity on the lottery market share is expected following The Lottery Corp’s 1H26 report on 18 February. 

Based on this guidance, EPS estimates were revised (-4%/+4%/+4%). 

This reflects the 1H26e result, lower jackpots, digital penetration and market share in FY26e, higher marketing costs, and revised amortisation, while the target price has been reduced due to a higher asset beta amid rising AI-related risks for software companies.

Price target reduction for this consumer discretionary stock

In Bell Potter’s report, the broker revealed an updated price target of $10.80 (previously $12.80). 

It maintained its hold recommendation. 

From yesterday’s closing price of $10.01, that indicates an upside of approximately 8%. 

We continue to see risks to JIN’s market share as TLC’s offering improves and as new players play lotteries. We await evidence of positive market share data during periods of strong Powerball jackpots before we turn more positive on the stock. Further, we believe there is potential for worsening sentiment towards software companies driven by advancements in AI technology that would see increasing competition for these companies.

The post Is this ASX consumer discretionary stock a buy after yesterday’s crash? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Jumbo Interactive. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Jumbo Interactive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

There has already been plenty of movement this earnings season. Yesterday investors were exiting positions in ASX healthcare stock Vitrafy Life Sciences Ltd (ASX: VFY). 

Its share price fell almost 2% yesterday. 

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gained nearly 1%. 

Vitrafy Life Sciences develops a range of proprietary smart cryopreservation hardware devices along with Lifechain – an integrated, cloud-based software platform, to provide a complete, vertically integrated cryopreservation solution to retain the quality of cryopreserved biomaterials.

The company released FY26 Half Year Results that included: 

• Underlying Operating Loss of.-$7.5m
• Operating Cash Outflow of $6.6m v -$4.0m PcP. 
• Cash and cash equivalents ended the period at $22.8m v $29.5m at FY25

Despite yesterday’s dip, the share price remains up more than 26% year to date. 

Following its earnings results, the team at Bell Potter released updated guidance on this ASX healthcare stock. 

Here is what the broker had to say. 

Commercial visibility 

Bell Potter acknowledged in its report that currently, most of this ASX healthcare stock’s income comes from government R&D incentives and grants, not from selling products.

However, this is expected to change over time as the company starts selling its technology commercially.

Importantly, it has signed its first major commercial agreement with IMV Technologies.

This deal is important because it validates Vitrafy Life Sciences’ technology and could lead to very large future revenue (over US$100m per year if widely adopted).

It’s important for prospective investors to be aware there is still risk, because the agreement needs to be expanded into a long-term deal.

If the partnership succeeds, it could be a turning point for the company.

Execution risk remains in moving to the long-term agreement, but assuming the partnership is consummated, the IMV partnership may prove to be the game changer the market is seeking. We assume a c.12% penetration across bovine / porcine segments (FY30e).

Upside remains in tact 

Bell Potter has maintained its speculative buy recommendation for this ASX healthcare stock. 

The broker has a price target of $2.25 on Vitrafy Life Sciences. 

From yesterday’s closing price of $1.62, this indicates an upside of 38.89%. 

Bell Potter said beyond the IMV partnership, this ASX healthcare stocks’ share price could be boosted by positive results from its Phase 2 US military trial, FDA approval of its Guardion medical device, and progress in commercialising its cryopreservation technology for Cell & Gene Therapy.

These events would signal that the technology is working, approved, and starting to generate real commercial interest.

The post Why this ASX healthcare stock is a speculative buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• This broker just upgraded this ASX healthcare stock and is predicting 30% upside

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Earlier this week, Pinnacle Investment Management Group Ltd (ASX: PNI) reported a half-year profit that had dipped a little.

This didn’t seem to deter investors in the stock, which bid the price up on results day, and it certainly hasn’t warned off the analyst team at Macquarie, which has an outperform rating on the stock and a bullish share price target.

An unexceptional profit

But first to the results, the company said net profit came in at $67.3 million, down 11% for the same period in 2024.

On the upside, the company said it had record net inflows of funds for the first half of $17.2 billion, with domestic retail inflows of $6.8 billion, domestic institutional inflows of $7 billion, and international inflows of $3.4 billion.

The company had cash and principal investments of $439.6 million at the end of the quarter.

Pinnacle also announced this week that it would buy the remaining 79.2% interest in Pacific Asset Management that it did not currently own for $418.8 million.

The company said that this agreement would accelerate its global growth, “with complementary distribution platforms to enhance geographic reach, affiliate origination, product innovation and expansion”.

Pinnacle declared an interim dividend of 29 cents per share, down 12% on the dividend for the same period last year.

Pinnacle Chair Alan Watson said re the result:

Our broad platform of affiliates and strategies, together with increasing presence in much larger addressable end markets, has underpinned a strong net flow outcome for the half, which will drive revenue growth in future periods. It is pleasing that all existing affiliates are profitable with revenues and core earnings continuing to build. Finally, we are delighted to welcome our nineteenth affiliate, Advantage Partners of Japan, and today announce further investment into Pacific Asset Management. We are confident that both of these growth initiatives will be to the benefit of our clients, people and shareholders.

Shares still looking cheap

Macquarie, in a research note sent to clients, said it was forecasting 18% compound annual growth for Pinnacle for the years out to 2030.

The analyst team said the business was well set up to grow, and added:

Pinnacle has an attractive organic growth outlook and potential to add accretive mergers and acquisitions. Outlook for organic performance is backed by net flows, performance fees, and operating leverage.

Macquarie has a 12-month price target of $25.25 on the stock, which, including the 3.5% dividend yield, would return shareholders 50.9% if achieved.

The post Which financial stock is Macquarie Tipping to return 50%? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Pinnacle Investment Management Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group and Pinnacle Investment Management Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares have had a solid run, and for many investors it has done exactly what a big bank is supposed to do. It has paid dividends, offered stability, and benefited from a strong banking cycle. But looking ahead, I’m not convinced the risk-reward is especially compelling from here.

If I were choosing where to put new money today, I’d rather focus on blue-chip ASX shares with clearer growth runways and less reliance on the domestic credit cycle. These are three established, high-quality ASX names I’d choose instead.

ResMed Inc. (ASX: RMD)

ResMed is one of those rare ASX shares that is genuinely global, and that matters. The business operates in a large and growing market driven by ageing populations, rising obesity rates, and increasing awareness of sleep apnoea.

What really appeals to me is that ResMed’s growth is not dependent on economic conditions in Australia. Demand for sleep and respiratory devices is structural, not cyclical. Its recent results showed solid device growth, expanding digital health adoption, and improving margins.

Unlike a bank, ResMed is not constrained by regulatory capital rules or housing credit growth. It has the ability to reinvest heavily in innovation while still generating strong cash flow. For long-term investors, that combination is powerful.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

Goodman is another blue-chip ASX share I’d rather own than Westpac shares.

Its focus on high-quality industrial property, logistics assets, and data centre infrastructure places it right in the middle of some of the most attractive long-term trends in global real estate. Ecommerce, supply chain reconfiguration, and cloud computing all require exactly the types of assets Goodman specialises in.

What sets Goodman apart is its development capability and global footprint. It is not just a passive landlord. It actively creates assets for customers, often alongside capital partners, which drives higher returns on equity over time.

In contrast to Westpac, Goodman’s growth is not tied to interest margins or mortgage volumes. It’s tied to long-term demand for infrastructure that underpins the modern economy.

Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG)

Sigma has quietly transformed itself over the past year, and I think the market is still adjusting to what the business has become.

The merger with Chemist Warehouse has created a vertically integrated healthcare group with scale across wholesale distribution, franchising, and retail. Pharmacy demand is resilient, supported by demographics and recurring consumer needs rather than economic cycles.

What I like about Sigma today is that it combines defensive characteristics with genuine operational upside. As integration benefits flow through and efficiencies are realised, earnings growth does not need bold assumptions to improve.

Compared to a major bank, Sigma offers exposure to healthcare demand rather than housing credit, and that diversification matters in a long-term portfolio.

Foolish takeaway

Westpac is not a bad business. But at this point in the cycle, I’d rather back blue-chip ASX shares with clearer growth drivers and less dependence on the domestic banking environment.

ResMed offers global healthcare growth, Goodman provides exposure to critical infrastructure, and Sigma brings defensive demand with improving fundamentals. For me, that’s a more attractive mix than simply adding more exposure to a major bank.

The post Instead of Westpac shares, I would buy these ASX blue chips appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Buy, hold, sell: IAG, Mineral Resources, and Westpac shares

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goodman Group and ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

When it comes to long-term investing, success is often less about perfect timing and more about owning the right Aussie stocks.

Buy and hold investing works best when you focus on companies with strong competitive advantages, robust balance sheets, and growth opportunities that can play out over many years.

With that in mind, here are three Aussie stocks that tick these boxes and could be worth buying and holding for the long term.

ResMed Inc. (ASX: RMD)

The first Aussie stock to buy and hold could be sleep disorder treatment company ResMed.

What makes ResMed compelling is not just what it sells, but how deeply embedded it has become in patient care pathways. Once a patient is diagnosed and prescribed therapy, ResMed’s products often become part of their daily routine for years. That creates unusually long customer lifecycles.

Beyond devices, ResMed has been steadily expanding its digital ecosystem, giving healthcare providers better data and insights into patient outcomes. This shifts the business from being product-led to system-led, which can strengthen relationships and reduce the risk of disruption.

For long-term investors, ResMed’s ability to evolve alongside healthcare systems, rather than simply sell into them, is what makes it attractive to hold through cycles.

REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA)

Another Aussie stock well suited to a buy and hold strategy is REA Group.

REA’s strength lies in how essential it has become to the Australian property ecosystem. Real estate agents, developers, and vendors do not treat realestate.com.au as optional advertising. It is infrastructure for property marketing.

What is often underappreciated is REA’s flexibility. When listing volumes slow, the company has multiple levers it can pull, including premium products, depth listings, and data services. That allows revenue to grow even when transaction activity is uneven.

Over time, REA has shown that it does not need a booming housing market to make progress. It just needs to remain indispensable. That is a powerful position for a long-term holding.

TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE)

A final Aussie stock to consider buying and holding is enterprise software company TechnologyOne.

TechnologyOne’s appeal is rooted in longevity. Its customers often stay for decades, not because switching is impossible, but because the software becomes tightly woven into how organisations operate. That creates a slow-moving but highly durable revenue base.

The company’s transition to cloud delivery has not changed its customer base so much as it has changed the economics of the business. Revenue is now recognised more smoothly, cash flows are more predictable, and reinvestment decisions can be made with greater confidence.

And while it has been growing at a strong rate for many years, management doesn’t expect this run to end. It believes TechnologyOne can double in size every five years.

The post 3 Aussie stocks to buy and hold forever appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in REA Group, ResMed, and Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ResMed and Technology One. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Technology One. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

On Wednesday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) pushed higher thanks to the banks and miners. The benchmark index rose 0.8% to 8,927.8 points.

Will the market be able to build on this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to fall

The Australian share market looks set to fall on Thursday following a mixed night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 35 points or 0.4% lower this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is up 0.4%, but the S&P 500 is down 0.4% and the Nasdaq is down 1.4%.

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares including Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a good session on Thursday after oil prices charged higher overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 3.1% to US$65.15 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 3.2% to US$69.47 a barrel. Traders were buying oil in response to reports that US-Iran talks are collapsing.

Neuren shares on watch

Neuren Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: NEU) shares will be on watch today after the pharmaceuticals company released an announcement after the market close on Wednesday. That announcement reveals that Neuren has received US FDA meeting feedback for NNZ-2591 clinical development in hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) and Pitt Hopkins syndrome. It said: “We received useful guidance from FDA for our programs in Pitt Hopkins syndrome and HIE and are incorporating the feedback into our plans, although we were disappointed that in both cases the guidance was received as Written Responses Only and was delayed relative to FDA’s goal dates.”

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a decent session on Thursday after the gold price edged higher overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.35% to US$4,951.7 an ounce. Traders have been buying the precious metal after a significant pullback earlier this week.

Buy Nufarm shares

Nufarm Ltd (ASX: NUF) shares could be undervalued according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating and $3.60 price target on the agricultural chemicals company’s shares. It said: “NUF continues to trade at a material discount to global peers (crop inputs ~9.3x FY26e EBITDA and seeds at ~10.0x FY26e EBITDA), despite favourable indicators for omega-3 returns in FY26e and demand indicators in the higher margin northern hemisphere crop protection markets looking generally supportive.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

When I think about dividend investing, I’m looking for businesses that can keep paying reliable income through different economic cycles and still be standing a decade or two from now.

Australia is actually a great place to do this. Our market is home to several large, well-established dividend stocks with predictable cash flows, strong balance sheets, and long histories of returning capital to shareholders.

These are five Australian dividend stocks I’d be comfortable buying and holding for the long haul.

Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)

Transurban is one of the most dependable income generators on the ASX. Its toll roads sit in major cities where traffic demand is driven by population growth, commuting patterns, and congestion rather than discretionary spending.

What makes Transurban particularly attractive for long-term dividend investors is the visibility of its cash flows. Many of its toll roads have inflation-linked pricing and long concession lives, which supports predictable and growing distributions over time.

This is the kind of infrastructure asset that quietly compounds income year after year, making it a natural foundation for a forever dividend portfolio.

APA Group (ASX: APA)

APA owns and operates critical energy infrastructure across Australia, including gas pipelines and storage assets. These are essential services that the economy relies on regardless of short-term conditions.

The strength of APA’s dividend profile comes from long-term contracts with high-quality counterparties. That contractual revenue underpins stable cash flows and supports consistent distributions.

For investors focused on income, APA offers resilience. Energy infrastructure doesn’t need strong consumer confidence or booming markets to keep generating cash.

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS)

I think Telstra is a classic defensive dividend stock. It operates Australia’s largest telecommunications network and provides services that people and businesses rely on every day. Mobile, broadband, and data demand tend to be remarkably stable, even when economic conditions soften.

Telstra’s dividends are supported by recurring revenue and a simplified business following years of restructuring. For income-focused investors, it offers a blend of yield, stability, and modest growth that can play an important role in a long-term portfolio.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)

Woolworths may not always deliver exciting growth, but I think it offers something just as valuable for dividend investors. That is reliability.

People need groceries regardless of the economic backdrop, and Woolworths’ scale gives it structural advantages in sourcing, distribution, and pricing. While earnings can fluctuate year to year, the long-term demand profile is very stable.

I think this means Woolworths could provide a steadily growing income stream backed by an essential business.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

Commonwealth Bank remains the premium bank on the ASX. Its strong brand, leading digital capability, and dominant position in retail banking have supported consistent profitability and dividends over many years. While bank earnings are cyclical, CBA has repeatedly shown an ability to generate attractive returns through different environments.

For long-term investors, I think CBA’s dividends offer a mix of income, franking credits, and relative stability compared to more leveraged or speculative sectors.

Foolish takeaway

Buying Australian dividend stocks to hold forever isn’t about finding the highest yield today. It’s about owning businesses that can keep paying and growing income through good times and bad.

Transurban, APA, Telstra, Woolworths, and Commonwealth Bank each bring something different to the table, but they share one important trait. They have durability, which is exactly what I want in an income portfolio.

The post The best Australian dividend stocks to buy and hold forever appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Commonwealth Bank Of Australia and Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Transurban Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group, Telstra Group, Transurban Group, and Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

When markets are near record highs, it’s natural to wonder whether the next big move is down. I get asked this a lot. Are we due for a crash, or is this just the usual anxiety that shows up whenever prices run hot?

My short answer is this. A crash is always possible. But based on what I can see today, it is not the outcome I’m planning my investing around.

What people usually mean by a stock market crash

Most investors use the word crash loosely. A 10% pullback feels dramatic in the moment, but it is actually very normal. Even 15% falls show up regularly across market history.

A decline of 10% to 20% is referred to as a market correction.

A true crash is different. That usually involves a sudden, severe decline driven by a shock the market did not see coming. Think financial system stress, a major policy mistake, or an unexpected geopolitical escalation.

Those events are rare. By definition, they are also hard to predict.

Why crash fears feel louder right now

There are understandable reasons investors are nervous.

Valuations in parts of the global market look full. A small group of large global stocks has driven a disproportionate share of returns over the past five years. Interest rates remain higher than many expected a few years ago. And recent volatility has left investors more sensitive to bad news.

On top of that, geopolitics has become noisier.

One example that keeps popping up is the Trump administration’s renewed push to gain control over Greenland. This has strained relationships between the US, Denmark, and the EU, including threats of tariffs. Then there are Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, and US-Iran tensions to consider.

Situations like this matter for markets because they can lead to trade retaliation, alliance instability, and supply chain disruptions. None of that is helpful for sentiment.

Why a major crash is not my base case

Despite those risks, I don’t think a full-blown crash is the most likely outcome before the end of 2026.

Corporate balance sheets are generally in decent shape. Banks are better capitalised than they were before past crises. Central banks are more cautious and data-driven, even if they sometimes move slowly. Importantly, many companies are still growing earnings rather than contracting.

Markets have also spent the past few years absorbing a lot of bad news. Inflation shocks, rapid rate rises, wars, and political uncertainty have all been digested to some extent. That doesn’t make markets immune, but it does mean we are not coming from a place of complacency.

What history teaches about timing crashes

One of the clearest lessons from market history is that crashes are almost impossible to time.

They tend to arrive when confidence is high, but they are usually triggered by something unexpected. Investors who sit in cash waiting for certainty often miss years of compounding while they wait for the perfect entry point that never quite arrives.

Volatility feels uncomfortable, but it is also the price of admission for long-term returns.

What I’m doing instead

Rather than trying to predict a crash, I’m sticking to what has worked over time.

I plan to continue investing as normal. That means buying quality ASX shares when I can get them at good prices. It means focusing on businesses with sustainable earnings, strong balance sheets, and sensible management teams. It also means accepting that there will be periods when markets pull back, sometimes sharply.

If volatility shows up, I see that as part of the process, not a signal to stop.

Foolish takeaway

A stock market crash is always possible. Pretending otherwise would be naive.

But planning your entire investment strategy around that fear can be just as costly. I’m siding with the view that markets are more likely to grind forward with bumps along the way than fall off a cliff. My focus remains on steadily building positions in quality ASX shares, or ETFs like Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS) and iShares S&P 500 AUD ETF (ASX: IVV), and letting time and compounding do its thing. I’d rather be prepared for volatility than paralysed by it.

The post What’s the likelihood of a stock market crash before the end of 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.