• I made 2% the other day. Break out the champagne?

    man celebrating with bottle of champagne at a party

    My portfolio went up 2% on Tuesday.

    If you think that’s impressive, then no, I’m not boasting.

    If you think that’s unimpressive, I’m tipping you’ve spent too long trading cryptocurrencies!

    2% is, in the context of a single day’s market trade, unusually good.

    Better, considering the market was only up 1% the same day.

    But still, I’m not boasting.

    See, the ASX gains an average of something like 10% per year, inclusive of dividends.

    Let’s assume dividends are around 4% per annum (a reasonable guess, given an ASX 200 ETF is paying out 2.84%, but the banks are yet to get back to pre-COVID dividend levels), and the Year 1 maths says that the average share price gain is around 6%.

    That means I got a full one-third of the average yearly gain in a day.

    The market went up by one-sixth of the same benchmark.

    No. Still not boasting.

    Exactly the opposite.

    Because when we talk about the ASX’s average yearly gain, that hides a helluva lot of volatility.

    So yes, it was nice to make 2% on Tuesday.

    But some of those winners — including companies I own like Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN) and Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD) — have had a helluva last 6, 12 and 18 months.

    In the last 12 months, CTM has been as low as $8 and as high as $22.

    Kogan has been as high as $25 and as low as $8.70.

    Kinda makes that 2% rise, though welcome, look a little anaemic, doesn’t it?

    (And Kogan fell 6% yesterday. Did I mention the ASX can be volatile?)

    Don’t get me wrong: I reckon you should take the wins when you get ‘em.

    But remember there’ll be bad days, too.

    And that the number of ‘up’ days is often not that many more than the ‘down’ days… but the net result of all of those ups and downs tends to be up, over time.

    It’s why paying attention to short term movements is usually counterproductive.

    You can’t just have the good days.

    You can’t avoid the bad days.

    You’ve gotta take the bad with the good.

    I wish I could make it different, but I can’t.

    So yep, I really enjoyed Tuesday.

    Yesterday? Not so much.

    But better than both is getting to a point where you realise that neither is important in the overall scheme of things.

    You need to learn to enjoy the good days a little less… because that also helps the bad days hurt less.

    And, in the long run, that helps you avoid acting out of fear, greed, pain or pleasure.

    It puts your rational brain back in charge of your emotions.

    Hard, but worthwhile.

    And, in all probability, much more profitable.

    See you tomorrow at our Live Facebook Q&A!

    Fool on!

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  • Magellan (ASX:MFG) is launching a new retirement fund. Here’s what we know

    two retirees sitting on a bench together

    Until now, Magellan Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MFG) was mostly known for its suite of listed managed funds. Or Listed Investment Trusts (LITs) if you want to get technical.

    Over the past decade or so, these funds have become some of the most popular managed investments on the ASX.

    Take the Magellan Global Fund (ASX: MGF). It’s a globally focused fund that holds companies such as Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX).

    It targets both capital preservation and strong compounding returns. As of 30 April, it was worth a staggering $3.18 billion.

    Historically, Magellan has been famous for this kind of fund. As far back as 2019, Magellan was flagging a retirement-focused product for its massive base of retail investors.

    Until today, it had been very coy on what exactly this might be, only ruling out that it would be an annuity-style product.

    But that could be about to change after Magellan finally revealed some details about its new retirement-focused product. An ASX release this morning sheds some light on this new offering.

    A retirement fund?

    According to the release, the new product will be known as ‘FuturePay’.

    Magellan didn’t offer too much detail, instead spruiking that more information will be available at the product’s official launch on 1 June.

    But here’s what Magellan CEO Brett Cains did say about the “upcoming retirement income-focused solution”:

    We are pleased to announce the launch of Magellan FuturePay. We believe it will help address the challenges faced by many investors and their advisers, particularly those dealing with the problem of establishing a retirement income.

    This is an important topic and I look forward to discussing our approach in further detail at our upcoming launch event.

    However, a report in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) this morning has some more details.

    The AFR says the fund will target an initial yield of 4.3% per annum. This will be paid monthly to investors, which Magellan aims to adjust for inflation and grow over time.

    Like most of Magellan’s other funds, FuturePay will focus mostly on global equities. It will be able to divert profits in times of outperformance into a trust.

    The fund will also reportedly be backed up with capital, and a loan facility capped at 2% of the fund’s value, from Magellan’s own balance sheet.

    This structure will allow Magellan to smooth out its distribution payments over time, balancing out market gyrations.

    It’s also estimated the new FuturePay fund will list on Wednesday 2 June, just after the official launch. It will reportedly list on the Chi-X exchange under the ticker code ‘FPAY’.

    The fund will charge a management fee of 1% per annum.

    About the Magellan share price

    The Magellan share price has risen slightly on the back of this news.

    Magellan Financial Group shares are up 0.48% at the time of writing, to $47.74. That’s largely in line with the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

    This share price gives Magellan a market capitalisation of $8.74 billion, a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.56 and a trailing dividend yield of 4.61%.

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  • Why ALS, Costa, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, & Ramsay shares are falling

    white arrow pointing down

    In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has overcome a soft start and is pushing higher. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is up 0.25% to 7,109.8 points.

    Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here’s why they are falling:

    ALS Ltd (ASX: ALQ)

    The ALS share price is down 1.5% to $12.08. This decline appears to have been driven by a broker note out of Morgans this morning. According to the note, the broker has downgraded the testing services company’s shares to a hold rating with an $11.56 price target. This was made largely on valuation grounds after a strong rise.

    Costa Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: CGC)

    The Costa share price has crashed 22% to $3.48 following the release of its annual general meeting update. The horticulture company revealed that it is only expecting its first half performance to be marginally ahead of the prior corresponding period. This is being driven by weakness in its domestic operations and currency headwinds.

    Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp Ltd (ASX: FPH)

    The Fisher & Paykel Healthcare share price has fallen 5.5% to $28.04. Investors have been selling the medical device company’s shares following the release of its full year results. Although the company reported a 56% increase in operating revenue to NZ$1.97 billion and an 82% jump in net profit after tax to NZ$524 million, its outlook appears to have spooked investors. Management warned that things were too uncertain to provide guidance.

    Ramsay Health Care Limited (ASX: RHC)

    The Ramsay Health Care share price is down 2.5% to $62.81. Investors have been selling the private hospital operator’s shares following the announcement of plans to acquire UK-based Spire Healthcare for approximately 1 billion pounds (A$1,822 million). Management expects the acquisition to be transformational for its UK business. Citi has responded by holding firm with its neutral rating and $67.00 price target. The broker appears uncertain whether it will achieve the synergies it is targeting.

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  • The Champion Iron (ASX:CIA) share price lifts on 419% profit news

    happy looking men working at a mine, indicating a share price rise for ASX resource shares

    Sure, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX: FMG) and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) are leveraging sky-high iron ore prices and making a lot of money. But Champion Iron Ltd (ASX: CIA) just delivered an extraordinary jump in profits after announcing its FY21 results.

    The market was quick to pick up on its success, with the Champion Iron share price jumping 7.4% to an intraday high of $7.06. Its shares have since pulled back, currently trading 4.26% higher at $6.86.

    Champion Iron is an iron ore exploration and development company with a number of projects in Canada’s Québec region.

    Champion Iron share price jumps on profit surge

    Champion Iron announced its operational and financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2021.

    The company delivered revenues of CA$1,281.8 million (A$1,366.8 million) in FY21, representing a 63% increase on FY20 figures. This translated into record FY21 net profits of CA$464 million (A$495 million), a 419% increase on the prior corresponding period.

    During this period, Champion Iron produced 8,001,200 wmt of high-grade 66.4 Fe concentrate, compared to the 7,903,700 wmt for the same period in 2020.

    The announcement highlighted a number of growth accomplishments in FY21 including the approval and decision to complete its Phase II expansion project. This move will double the production of its flagship Bloom Lake project to 15 Mtpa by mid-2022. In April 2021, the company also completed the acquisition of the Kami Project, a high-grade iron ore project located a few kilometres away from Bloom Lake.

    Not only did Champion Iron deliver an outstanding financial and operational result, but the company has made a conscious effort to improve its environmental performance. The exceptional purity and quality of its iron ore significantly contributes to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the steelmaking industry.

    Why its been a volatile ride for iron ore miners

    ASX iron ore miners have been all over the place as investors juggling sky-high iron ore prices of more than US$200/tonne against a steady stream of negative news from China.

    China has made a number of announcements that could have significant ramifications for iron ore prices in the near term. This includes plans to increase its own domestic production, moves to strengthen its domestic management of commodities to fight against “unreasonable prices” and urging domestic players to safeguard price stability.

    While the Champion Iron share price has managed to stand strong in recent weeks, other iron majors such as Fortescue and BHP have both slipped around 10% since mid-May.

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  • Why the Electro Optic Systems (ASX:EOS) share price is pushing higher

    defence personnel operating and discussing defence technology

    The Electro Optic Systems Holdings Ltd (ASX: EOS) share price is climbing today. The gains come after the company announced a partnership agreement with Diehl Defence.

    In early afternoon trading, the communications, defence, and space company’s shares are fetching $4.06, up 3.31%.

    Electro Optic Systems teams up with Diehl Defence

    Investors are watching Electro Optic Systems shares following the release of the company’s latest update.

    In its announcement, EOS advised it has signed a cooperation agreement with Diehl Defence.

    Founded in 2004, Diehl Defence is a German arms manufacturer that primarily produces guided missiles and ammunition for armed forces.

    The collaboration between the companies will see an initial focus “on the area of advanced stabilized and remotely operated weapon systems (RWS) for the European and NATO markets.”

    According to Electro Optic Systems, its RWS technology is considered among the best in the world due to its accuracy, reliability and lightweight frame. The battle-proven system allows operators to access long-range and wide-area imagery of the battlespace. In addition, the RWS can also relay information to drones to lock onto targets for direct fire.

    Under the cooperation agreement, an RWS production line will be established at Diehl’s facilities in Germany. From there, the technology will be transferred and integrated with Diehl products to cater for European defence forces’ requirements.

    As well, both companies will work together on space and high-power electro-magnetics technologies. Electro Optic Systems hopes the partnership can lead to lucrative revenue opportunities with European and NATO defence forces.

    Management commentary

    Electro Optic Systems CEO Dr Ben Greene welcomed the partnership, saying:

    This Cooperation Agreement with Diehl aligns companies that not only have complimentary and non-competing cutting-edge technologies, but organisational cultures and values that are strongly aligned. EOS is excited by the prospect of being able to offer and support our land and space technologies in conjunction with great German engineering know-how for the European and NATO markets.

    Diehl Foundation board member and CEO of Diehl Defence Helmut Rauch added:

    At Diehl we have a tradition of more than a hundred years of moving into new, demanding fields of technology on a proven foundation. Strategic partnerships are very important to our owner-managed company. The great technologies of EOS and the extraordinarily well-fitting corporate culture of EOS offer us excellent opportunities to develop a strategic business area.

    About the Electro Optic Systems share price

    It has been a difficult year for Electro Optic Systems shareholders, with the company’s share price tumbling by around 30%. EOS shares reached a 52-week high of $7.30 last year before positive investor sentiment wore off.

    Electro Optic Systems has a market capitalisation of roughly $618 million, ranking 375th on the ASX.

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  • Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to sell today

    stylised silhouette of a bear on financial graph background

    On Wednesday I looked at three ASX shares that brokers have given buy ratings to this week.

    Unfortunately, not all shares are in favour with them right now. Three ASX shares that have just been given sell ratings by brokers are listed below. Here’s why these brokers are bearish on them:

    Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

    According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts have retained their sell rating but lifted their price target slightly to $13.31. Goldman bearish view is due to its belief that the integrated property company’s shares are vastly overvalued compared to peers. It notes that Goodman’s Funds Management operations are valued at 32x estimated FY 2022 segment EBITDA. This compares to an average 20x estimated FY 2022 EBITDA for other US-listed Alternative Asset Managers covered by the broker. The Goodman share price is fetching $19.26 this afternoon.

    Scentre Group (ASX: SCG)

    A note out of Macquarie reveals that its analysts have retained their underperform rating and $2.62 price target on this shopping centre-focused property company. According to the note, the broker points to Scentre’s Bondi Junction mall in Sydney as proof that the leasing environment has disconnected from the strength in retail sales. It believes this disconnect will lead to vacant stores and negative leasing spreads, which will place pressure on underlying cash flows. The Scentre share price is trading at $2.68 today.

    Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P)

    Analysts at UBS have retained their sell rating and cut their price target on this buy now pay later (BNPL) provider’s shares to $5.60. UBS feels increasing competition could be a problem and weigh on Zip’s margins. Particularly in the United States, where its QuadPay business enjoys higher than normal margins. In addition, the broker feels that the market underestimates the amount of capital required to support its growth, especially if competition increases. The Zip share price is trading at $7.16 on Thursday.

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  • 2 great ASX growth shares that might be buys

    rising share price of a company

    There are a few very interesting ASX growth shares that could be intriguing to look at right now.

    Some businesses are generating a lot of revenue growth which may help shareholder returns over time:

    Volpara Health Technologies Ltd (ASX: VHT)

    Volpara is an ASX-listed healthcare technology company. It just reported its FY21 half-year result. The business has an integrated breast health platform that assists in the delivery of personalised patient care.

    Its market share of women in the US who have at least one Volpara product used on their screening continues to increase. In FY19 it was below 10% and it has now reached 32%, partly thanks to acquisitions.

    Volpara’s gross profit margin continues to increase. In FY18 the gross margin was below 80% and in FY21 it has increased to 91%.

    The group average revenue per user (ARPU) has continued to increase. In the HY20 result the ARPU was below US$1 and in FY21 it increased to US$1.40.

    The ASX growth share showed improvement across a number of important metrics.

    Subscription revenue soared 99% to NZ$18.1 million and it’s expecting FY22 revenue of between NZ$25 million to NZ$26 million.

    Volara CEO and chief scientist Dr Ralph Highnam spoke of the progress and focus of the business to build for the future:

    FY21 was an excellent year for Volpara. We successfully conducted our second acquisition, of Boston-based breast cancer risk company CRA Health LLC, but we’ve also done a huge amount of work behind the scenes to make the company more scalable: digital marketing through to smarter use of our cloud services through to easier-to-deploy software systems into clinics. It’s great to see that work start to come through in the numbers as we see gross margin moving upwards and the net loss coming down, even as we continue to grow at a strong pace.

    VanEck Vectors Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (ASX: MOAT)

    This is exchange-traded fund (ETF) is an ASX growth share that only invests in businesses that have strong competitive advantages that are trading at attractive prices.

    The portfolio regularly changes. At the moment the positions that each account for more than 2.5% of the portfolio are: Wells Fargo, Cheniere Energy, Alphabet, Northrop Grumman, Philip Morris, General Dynamics, Berkshire Hathaway, Raytheon Technologies, Yum! Brands and Altria Group.

    A business only makes it into the portfolio if the analysts at Morningstar believe the business is trading at an attractive price compared to Morningstar’s estimate of fair value. It’s an active stock selection process, but the annual management fee is 0.49%.

    Whilst all of the shares in the portfolio are listed in the US, many of them have global underlying earnings. There is diversification across sectors with 20.4% allocated to health care, 17% to IT, 15.2% to industrials, 12.9% to financials, 11% to consumer staples, 7.2% to communication services, 6.2% to consumer discretionary and so on.

    The returns have beaten the S&P 500 over the last five years. The VanEck Vectors Morningstar Wide Moat ETF has produced an average return per annum of 18.6% over the last five years compared to the S&P 500’s average return of 16.5%.

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  • Here’s why the Gentrack (ASX:GTK) share price is rocketing 14% higher

    Rocket launching into space

    The Gentrack Group Ltd (ASX: GTK) share price is rocketing higher in morning trade, up 14%.

    Below we look at the half year results (through 31 March) for the company, which provides software solutions for utilities and airports across the globe.

    What results did Gentrack report?

    Gentrack’s share price is surging higher after reporting a 0.7% lift in revenue compared to the first half of the 2020 financial year. Revenue for H1 FY21 came in at $51.0 million.

    The company said revenues from its utilities segment rose 6% over the corresponding half year while revenue from its airport segment fell by $22.1 million, impacted by continuing pandemic travel restrictions. Annual recurring revenues increased 5.8%, which Gentrack said reflects “the critical role of our product in our customers’ operations”.

    Underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) gained 63.2% over the previous corresponding period, to $7 million.

    Statutory net profit before taxes (NPAT) showed a loss of $1.1 million.

    That means investors won’t see a dividend payment this half. Gentrack said, “In light of the NPAT loss, the Board has decided not to pay an interim dividend and will review the position at the year end.”

    The company also noted that, “We continue to have headwinds from prior year customer attrition and supplier failures in the UK. We have however, moved the business back to growth despite this revenue drag.”

    Following $5.6 million of net cash generation during the half, Gentrack’s net cash was $22.4 million as of 31 March. That’s up 33.5% from H1 FY20. Gentrack said its year-end cash position “provides scope for additional investment in technology”.

    Upgraded guidance

    The Gentrack share price also looks to be getting some tailwinds for the companies new guidance.

    Looking ahead, Gentrack upgraded its guidance for the full 2021 financial year. In February it estimated full year EBITDA would come in around $5 million with revenues of $100.5 million, in line with FY20.

    The updated guidance forecasts that revenue will be “slightly ahead” of its $100.5 million estimate. While EBITDA for FY21 is now expected in the range of $10 million “on the basis that research and development (R&D) costs are expensed”.

    Gentrack share price snapshot

    Over the past 12 months, Gentrack’s shares have gained 28%. That edges out the 25% gains posted by the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO).

    Year-to-date, the Gentrack share price is up 19%, currently trading at $1.75 per share.

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  • Why AMP, Champion Iron, EOS, & Vulcan shares are storming higher

    three building blocks with smiley faces, indicating a rise in the ASX share price

    In early afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is having a subdued day. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is flat at 7,094.7 points.

    Four ASX shares that are not letting that hold them back are listed below. Here’s why they are storming higher:

    AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP)

    The AMP share price is up 3.5% to $1.10. This is despite the financial services company revealing that ASIC has commenced civil proceedings against it in the Federal Court. This is in relation to alleged breaches concerning the deduction of life insurance premiums and advice service fees from the superannuation accounts of deceased customers.

    Champion Iron Ltd (ASX: CIA)

    The Champion Iron share price has risen 4% to $6.84 following the release of its full year results. The iron ore miner reported full year revenue of C$1,281.8 million and EBITDA of C$819.5 million. This was up 63% and 136%, respectively, over the prior corresponding period. A strong rise in the iron ore price played a key role in its bumper profit growth.

    Electro Optic Systems Hldg Ltd (ASX: EOS)

    The Electro Optic Systems share price is up 4% to $4.09. This morning the communications, defence, and space company announced a cooperation agreement with Diehl Defence. This agreement will facilitate greater commercial collaboration between the two companies. They will initially focus on the area of advanced stabilised and remotely operated weapon systems (RWS) for the European and NATO markets.

    Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd (ASX: VUL)

    The Vulcan share price is up 3% to $7.36. Investors have been buying the lithium explorer’s shares after it provided an update on its pilot lithium extraction plant. According to the release, Vulcan’s pilot plant team has achieved target specification for direct lithium extraction (DLE) feed into its pilot plant. This ultimately led to the team achieving a target recovery of greater than 90% for lithium chloride from Upper Rhine Valley brine.

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  • The Element 25 (ASX:E25) share price is in focus today. Here’s why

    woman and two men in hardhats talking at mine site

    Shares in Element 25 Ltd (ASX: E25) are steady in midday trading, with the company releasing more news regarding transport arrangements for its manganese products. At the time of writing, the Element 25 share price is sitting at $2.40, the same as at yesterday’s close.

    The manganese producer has signed a letter of intent with haulage company AK Evans Group Australia. It takes the company a step closer to sending the first shipment of its Butcherbird manganese concentrate product to the company’s offtake partners.

    The letter of intent comes after Element 25 announced on Tuesday it had signed an agreement with the Pilbara Port Authority, allowing shipment of its product from Port Hedland.

    Following Tuesday’s news, Element 25 yesterday announced it had sold its first parcel of Butcherbird’s manganese product to OM Holdings Limited (ASX: OMH). It’s also ramped up operations at its Butcherbird site to 24-hour processing.

    Despite it having little impact on the Element 25 share price so far today, let’s take a closer look at the company’s news.

    Transport solution

    Element 25 expects its latest letter of intent will lead to an agreement that will see AK Evans routinely trucking manganese concentrate from the company’s Butcherbird site to Port Hedland’s port.

    According to Element 25, the letter of intent covers initial transport arrangements. The two companies will aim to introduce new quad road trains to truck Butcherbird’s manganese products by the end of this year.

    AK Evans will haul the products approximately 580 kilometres along the Great Northern Highway to Port Hedland. Element 25 said access to a sealed highway is a rare benefit the mine has over other Pilbara-based operations.

    AK Evans was founded in Port Hedland and has locations across Western Australia. It has a partnership with Indigenous owned earthmoving and services company, Kurtarra Pty Limited, and an established sponsorship agreement with Beyond Blue.

    Element 25 stated it will now be focusing on the next stages of the Butcherbird project’s development. These include an expansion of the company’s concentrate business and the conversion of concentrate material into high purity manganese sulphate monohydrate (HPMSM).

    According to Element 25, HPMSM can be used in electric vehicle batteries and is likely to be in high demand in coming years.

    Commentary from management

    Element 25 managing director Justin Brown commented on the agreement, saying:

    We are excited to be partnering with AK Evans with a view to having new dedicated road trains to transport our manganese to Port Hedland. We are also excited to know we can work with our commercial partners in delivering solutions to fulfil our vision of delivering zero carbon manganese for the EV Battery revolution.

    Element 25 share price snapshot

    Element 25 shares are having a fantastic year so far on the ASX.

    Currently, the Element 25 share price is up by around 59% year to date. It’s also up by an impressive 500% from this time last year.

    The company has a market capitalisation of around $357 million, with approximately 148 million shares outstanding.

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