• Down 50% in 2021: Is the a2 Milk (ASX:A2M) share price a bargain buy?

    watching asx share price represented by investor looking up

    The A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) share price is heading in the right direction at long last.

    In morning trade, the fresh milk and infant formula company’s shares are up 3% to $5.87.

    Though, this is little comfort for longer term shareholders. The a2 Milk share price is still down 50% since the start of the year.

    Is the a2 Milk share price good value?

    One broker that doesn’t think investors should be rushing in to invest is Morgans.

    This week the broker retained its hold rating but slashed its price target down by 20% to $6.65.

    Morgans is expecting a2 Milk to deliver earnings per share of 11.2 cents in FY 2021 and then 23.3 cents in FY 2022.

    Based on these forecasts, the a2 Milk share price is currently trading at 25x estimated FY 2022. Which, despite its 50% decline in 2021, certainly isn’t cheap given the high levels of uncertainty it is facing.

    What did Morgans say?

    It commented: “We have reduced our FY21/22/23 NPAT forecasts by 57.5%/26.0%/25.5%. In FY22, we forecast 100% NPAT growth however we stress that a large component of this growth reflects a reversal of the FY21 provision and one-off items.”

    “While we expect earnings growth to resume at A2M from FY22 onwards, we forecast it to be much less than in the past reflecting regulatory changes and border restrictions impacting the daigou, China’s declining birth rate and increased competition from Chinese companies (government has a 60% self-sufficiency target),” it added.

    Inventory issues

    Morgans also commented on the significant inventory issues it is facing and notes that the future performance of the a2 Milk share price will be dependent on whether the actions it is taking are successful.

    It explained: “A2M has too much inventory in its relevant channels. Consequently, the company is now taking more aggressive measures to fix its business. Not only is A2M replacing new IF tins for old tins which are nearing their used by date, it is also rebalancing inventory by further reducing sell-in to the daigou/reseller and CBEC channels. Consequently, a stock provision of NZ$103.3-113.3m will be recorded in FY21.”

    “The question is whether this write-off is enough and what damage it does to brand health metrics. A2M cautioned it will take some time to rebalance inventory and restore channel health and an immediate recovery is not expected,” Morgans added.

    What happens from here, only time will tell. But one thing that is more certain, is that it looks set to be a volatile ride for the a2 Milk share price over the next 12-24 months.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended A2 Milk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • NIB (ASX:NHF) share price wobbles after ACCC drops court case

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    The NIB Holdings Limited (ASX: NHF) share price is up and down after the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) withdrew court proceedings against the health insurer.

    Following NIB’s update at 3:22 pm AEST yesterday, the company’s shares rallied briefly before closing the day 0.16% lower at $6.23. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) also ended the day lower by 1.06%.

    This morning, the NIB share price opened around 2% lower before partially recovering to its current level of $6.20, down 0.48% for the day so far.

    Let’s take a closer look at the announcement.

    ACCC drops case against NIB

    In a statement to the ASX on Tuesday afternoon, NIB said the ACCC would end court proceedings against the company that began in May 2017.

    The case was brought about due to changes in NIB’s ‘MediGap Scheme’, a program in which the company would cover out-of-pocket costs for customers using Medicare services that were not bulk billed.

    The ACCC alleged NIB failed to notify customers that it would no longer cover certain eye procedures under the scheme in 2015. The government body further alleged customers then unwittingly undertook these procedures, unaware they were no longer covered by the policy.

    The trial was delayed due to a similar case the ACCC had against Medibank Private Ltd (ASX: MPL). It was then further delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The ACCC said it agreed to drop the charges as NIB had made the necessary changes since the proceedings first began. 

    ACCC chair Rod Sims commented:

    Given the passage of time since this case was commenced, NIB’s changed notification practice during that time and the improvements made across the industry as a result of the ACCC’s interventions in the sector, we believe it is no longer in the public interest to continue proceedings against NIB. 

    We are pleased the industry has significantly changed practices since 2015 to ensure greater transparency for consumers, including NIB’s change of its approach and commitment to continue informing customers about changes that may affect their out–of–pocket expenses for ongoing treatment ahead of the changes occurring.

    In its statement, NIB said it “is committed to acting in the best interests of its members and has denied the ACCC’s allegations.”

    NIB share price snapshot

    Over the past 12 months, the NIB share price has increased by around 31%. Only last week, shares in the company were in the green after it sold its digital healthcare advisory platform.

    NIB has a market capitalisation of $2.85 billion.

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  • Why Tesla stock tumbled again on Tuesday

    This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

    girl holding out a Chinese flag through a window

    This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

    What happened

    Shares of electric car leader Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) are losing some steam Tuesday, falling as much as 5% in early trading and still down about 2.2% as we approach the noonday mark (EDT).

    What’s ailing Tesla today? A couple of things, actually — but both of them are named “China.”

    So what

    As Barron’s reports this morning, Tesla sold fewer than 26,000 electric vehicles in China in April, a 26% sequential slide from the 35,000 units moved in March. Local competition appears to be the problem there, with the news magazine reporting that in aggregate, rival EV companies NIO (NYSE: NIO), XPeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) grew their Chinese EV sales by about 1,000 units.

    That could be a problem for Tesla, which is believed to be counting on China to provide 40% of its sales in 2022. If growth is slowing there, it could impact Tesla’s entire growth rate worldwide. And adding credibility to worries that it might be a problem, Reuters reported this morning that Tesla has suspended plans to buy additional land adjacent to its Shanghai manufacturing plant. Granted, the existing plant is designed to produce far more cars than Tesla is already selling in China — about 500,000 units annually. But the suspension does call into question hopes that Teslas might be selling so well in China that the company would need to expand operations to keep up with demand.

    That no longer seems to be the case.

    Now what

    So is this a death knell for Tesla stock? I wouldn’t go quite that far just yet, and it’s even possible that investors are overreacting to today’s news out of China. To understand why, just do a bit of math with me: Tesla sold nearly 26,000 Teslas in China in April, right? Multiply that by 12 months, and you only get to 312,000 units or so — meaning that a plant designed to build 500,000 units is still plenty big to meet existing demand, and even growing demand, for Teslas in China.

    What’s more, defying media reports, Tesla insists that its operations in China are actually still “developing as planned,” while experts suggest that even without buying more land, Tesla’s existing plant could be expanded to produce more than 500,000 cars a year should the company so desire.

    Long story short, this latest sales report out of China looks more like a yellow flag than a red flag to me.

    This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

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  • Evolution (ASX:EVN) share price treads lower on acquisition update

    asx share price fall represented by lady in striped tshirt making sad face against orange background

    The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price is backtracking during market open, despite announcing a positive acquisition update.

    At the time of writing, the gold miner’s share price is swapping hands for $5.02, down 0.59%.

    What did Evolution announce?

    Investors are dragging down Evolution shares following its latest update to the ASX.

    According to this morning’s release, Evolution advised that Canadian-listed Battle North Gold Corp (TSE: BNAU) shareholders have approved the proposed acquisition.

    Evolution tabled an offer in the middle of March to acquire all the issued share capital of Battle North. A definitive arrangement agreement valued the outstanding shares of Battle North at a price of $2.79 (C$2.65) apiece. This equates to a cash consideration of roughly $362 million (C$343 million), a 46% premium on the market day before the announcement.

    Whilst shareholders agreed to the sale, the transaction still needs approval by the Supreme Court of British Columbia. The hearing is scheduled to occur next Monday, 17 May. If the court gives the go-ahead, settlement is expected to be finalised on 19 May 2021.

    Evolution executive chair, Jake Klein touched on the favourable outcome, saying:

    It’s pleasing to see the overwhelmingly positive support for the Transaction from Battle North shareholders. This acquisition provides Evolution with an opportunity to expand our footprint in the Red Lake region and create value by leveraging the infrastructure of the two operations.

    The additional processing capacity from the new Bateman mill will also accelerate our ability to achieve our objective of producing in excess of 300,000 ounces of gold per annum from Red Lake.

    About the Evolution share price

    Evolution is an Australian mining and exploration company that owns and operates five gold and silver mines in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.

    The Evolution share price has been on a rocky period over the last 12 months, down almost 10%. Although, the company’s shares slumped in early 2021, year-to-date performance remains relatively flat, up 1%.

    On valuation grounds, Evolution commands a market capitalisation of around $8.6 billion, with approximately 1.7 billion shares outstanding.

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  • Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

    stack of wooden blocks with '1, 2, 3' written on them

    Many of Australia’s top brokers have been busy adjusting their financial models again, leading to the release of a large number of broker notes this week.

    Three broker buy ratings that have caught my eye are summarised below. Here’s why brokers think these ASX shares are in the buy zone:

    Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS)

    According to a note out of Macquarie, its analysts have retained their outperform rating and $1.50 price target on this lithium miner’s shares. This follows the announcement of a potential joint venture with Calix Ltd (ASX: CXL) which is exploring the possibility of the construction of a facility that will process spodumene into a mid-stream lithium product. In addition, the company has revealed that it will soon make a decision on whether to restart the Ngungaju plant or the Altura project. The Pilbara Minerals share price is currently fetching $1.22.

    Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN)

    Analysts at UBS have retained their buy rating and lifted their price target on this insurance and banking giant’s shares to $12.00. According to the note, the broker was pleased with Suncorp’s general insurance update and its target of achieving margins of 10% to 12% by FY 2023. And while it expects the majority of the improvement to come late on, the broker still believes its shares look cheap at the current level. The Suncorp share price is trading at $10.44 today.

    Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)

    A note out of Macquarie reveals that its analysts have retained their outperform rating and $44.50 price target on this retail conglomerate’s shares. This follows confirmation that the company will be going ahead with its Endeavour demerger. Macquarie expects the spin off to materially improve its balance sheet, given that the majority of its debt has historically been with the drinks unit. This will be supportive of up to $2 billion in capital returns. Overall, it believes Woolworths has become a more attractive business. The Woolworths share price is trading at $40.83 this morning.

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  • CSR (ASX:CSR) share price lifts to all-time high on full-year results

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    The CSR Limited (ASX: CSR) share price has pushed 6.26% higher to $6.28 following the release of the company’s full-year results. In earlier trade, CSR shares gained more than 8% to reach a new, all-time high before partially retreating.

    Let’s take a look at how the company has been performing.

    CSR full year results highlights 

    The CSR share price is higher following a well rounded result with a 17% increase in statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) to $146.1 million. 

    This result was driven by strong cost control and operational efficiency out of the company’s building products division, which accounted for 70% of group earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT). Building products experienced an 8% uplift in EBIT to $184.3 million with EBIT margins increasing from 10.7% to 12.0%. 

    The improvement in margins helped the business offset the impact of slowdown in residential construction activity, which declined 4% during the year.

    Elsewhere, CSR’s property division delivered an EBIT of $54.2 million following the completion of the next stage at the Horsley Park industrial development. The company further secured $146 million in sale proceeds over the next three years for Horsley Park developments. 

    Finally, the company’s aluminium division saw EBIT slide from $59.6 million to $23.4 million, or roughly 9% of group EBIT following a sharp decline in aluminium prices at the start of the financial year. 

    CSR declared a final dividend of 14.5 cents per share, lifting its full year dividend to 23.0 cents per share. The company also announced a special dividend of 9.5 cents per share following the settlement of the property sale at Horsley Park. This compares to the previous year where no final dividend was declared due to the priorities placed on preserving cash amidst COVID-19

    Management commentary 

    CSR managing director and CEO Julie Coates commented on the result, saying: 

    CSR performed very well during the year, reflecting the breadth of our businesses and strength of our offering across diverse construction segments and markets. We increased our earnings with a strong focus on cost control and operational efficiency which leveraged trading outcomes as residential building activity improved during the second half of the year

    The pleasing result was achieved while making important changes to reorganise the Building Products business. We are now well positioned to deliver our strategy across more complete customer solutions, optimising our supply chain and leveraging core capabilities across all products and markets. This will further diversify our business, enabling us to maximise market opportunities and drive future growth

    CSR share price cruises to record highs 

    The CSR share price has been performing well and is up by more than 50% since September last year. The bullishness behind the building industry has helped the company’s shares clear previous 2018 highs to set a new all-time record high of $6.40 in intraday trading today. 

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    Motley Fool contributor Kerry Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • InvoCare (ASX:IVC) share price lower on strategy update

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    The InvoCare Limited (ASX: IVC) share price is trading lower on Wednesday morning.

    At the time of writing, the funerals company’s shares are down over 1.5% to $10.59.

    This latest decline means the InvoCare share price is now down over 8% since the start of the year.

    Why is the InvoCare share price trading lower today?

    Investors have been selling InvoCare’s shares following the release of an update this morning.

    That update provided colour on current trading conditions, its expectations for the future, and its new strategy.

    In respect to trading conditions, in the near term, management notes that underlying growth remains in the low single digits. As a result, it will require a focus on services and adjacencies to grow its addressable market and operating leverage in order to deliver satisfactory returns.

    It does, however, believe the longer-term outlook is more positive due to Australia’s growing and ageing population.

    Strategy reset

    InvoCare revealed that it is resetting its strategy so it can better leverage its core assets. This will result in a shift in its business focus to simplify, standardise, and control costs. It will also see InvoCare seek to prioritise “share of value” and profitable growth instead of volume market share.

    This follows underwhelming results from its previous Protect and Grow strategy. Since its launch in February 2017, the InvoCare share price has lost approximately a fifth of its value.

    Whereas over the same period, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has gained around 24%.

    The company also spoke about new growth opportunities. These include new product developments such as “Green memorialisation”, digital engagement, business to business opportunities, the expansion of its cremator network, entering new territories, and property options.

    It also sees opportunities in the pet cremations market following its recent acquisition. Management notes that pet ownership rates continue to grow, the humanisation of pets is increasing, and the industry is highly fragmented.

    Overall, management appears positive on its long term prospects. Though, based on the InvoCare share price performance today, it appears that some investors aren’t as confident that the new strategy will be enough to turn things around.

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  • The ASX shares poised to benefit from new spending in the 2021 federal budget

    ASX shares federal budget 2021 climate investment opportunity represented by tornado made of dollar notes

    Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg unleashed a wave of new spending last night that will likely give several ASX shares a nice boost.

    If you haven’t already heard, spending is the new fiscal conservatism!

    While many of the details from the 2021 federal budget has been leaked, Frydenberg still pulled a few rabbits out of the hat.

    Never mind that the massive spend will punch a $161 billion hole in the budget this year. It’s all about keeping our economy on the path to COVID-19 recovery.

    ASX shares to get slice of the multi-billion cash handout

    ASX investors won’t be complaining either. Many of the billions of dollars that the government is throwing around will flow into the market.

    One of the surprise spending initiatives that Frydenberg unveiled last night is the one-year extension of the instant asset write-off scheme.

    It’s estimated that 99% of Australian companies will benefit. They can purchase capital equipment and immediately deduct that from the current year’s tax bill and there’s no cap.

    Tax breaks in 2021 Federal Budget to boost ASX shares

    ASX companies that sell capital equipment are likely to be grinning from ear to ear. These include auto accessories groups like the ARB Corporation Limited (ASX: ARB) share price and car yards like Eagers Automotive Ltd (ASX: APE) share price.

    Another tax break extension is the $1080 tax credit for low- and middle-income singles. Any tax savings are likely to be spent by this group.

    I won’t be surprised if the Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (ASX: HVN) share price gets a second government sponsored support from the initiative after the retailer refused to hand back its Jobkeeper payments.

    Stimulus for innovation and technology

    Another surprise was the Patent Box. Companies that develop local patented innovations will only have to pay a tax rate of 17% on income earned from that technology.

    The biotech industry has been calling for such a program for years, and I believe the CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) share price and Starpharma Holdings Limited (ASX: SPL) share price could benefit from this.

    ASX miners could also get a piece of the action. It’s worth pointing out that the better-than-expected budget position is due to high commodity prices. And while there is no specific handout to this sector, the government’s new $1.6 billion funding for priority energy technologies, which include batteries, will add demand for copper and other base metals.

    Not that ASX miners like the OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL) share price and IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) share price need any help. These shares are trading near record or multi-year highs.

    Other ways the 2021 budget could flood the ASX

    Then there are also changes that will encourage Aussies to put more cash into their superannuation. A good chunk of that retirement savings are likely to find its way into the market too.

    Throw in the $15 billion in new funding for infrastructure, $1.7 billion for childcare and $2.1 billion extra for aviation and tourism. You can see how widespread the benefits to ASX shares could be.

    One has to wonder how much extra pressure on inflation the 2021 federal budget will put on the economy though.

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  • Pfizer and BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine authorized by the FDA for adolescents

    This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

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    This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

    In a widely expected move, the Food and Drug Administration has expanded its emergency use authorization for Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech‘s (NASDAQ: BNTX) COVID-19 vaccine to include people as young as 12 years old.

    The widened authorization for BNT162b2 was based on the ability of the vaccine to induce the production of COVID-19 antibodies; the levels of antibodies it generated in clinical trial participants ages 12 through 15 were at least as good as the antibody levels in participants in the 16-to-25 age range.

    Those antibodies appear to protect patients from being infected by the coronavirus.

    Measured starting one week after they received their second doses of BNT162b2, none of the 1,005 adolescents who were inoculated developed COVID-19. Among the 978 trial participants who received placebo shots, there were 16 cases of COVID-19. That equates to a finding of 100% protection, although the numbers in the study were relatively small.

    The side effect profile for the adolescents was similar to that seen in those 16 and older. In both groups, people had more side effects after the second dose than the first dose.

    Pfizer and BioNTech beat Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) to the finish line in terms of gaining FDA authorization for their vaccine to be administered to adolescents. However, BNT162b2’s period of exclusivity in that demographic, which presumably will only last for a couple of months, isn’t likely to be much of a financial advantage. Large sales contracts with the U.S. government are already in place for both mRNA vaccines, so opening the use of BNT162b2 to a wider age group won’t increase its sales. Until another vaccine is authorized for adolescents, some of Pfizer’s doses will be used for adolescents, and any supply tightening that might cause for the adult demographic will be filled by Moderna’s vaccine or Johnson & Johnson’s.

    This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

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  • Why the Electro Optic Systems (ASX:EOS) share price is jumping 15% today

    A drawing of a rocket follows a chart up, indicating share price lift

    The Electro Optic Systems Hldg Ltd (ASX: EOS) share price is on the move on Wednesday.

    At the time of writing, the communications, defence, and space company’s shares are up 15% to $4.60.

    Why is the Electro Optic Systems share price rising?

    Investors have been buying Electro Optic Systems shares this morning following the release of a trading update.

    According to the release, the company has achieved a significant cash inflow as its investment in inventory converts to cash.

    The release explains that from March 2020 to March 2021, Electro Optic Systems increased its investment in its inventory of finished goods to a total $138 million. This was to allow production to continue against a firm export order while delivery and payment processes were restored from COVID-19 disruption.

    Positively, this investment preserved the Electro Optic Systems supply chain and maintained its own production processes.

    As a result, on 30 April 2021, Electro Optic Systems was able to report that all deliveries were “proceeding normally”.

    Current cash balance

    At the end of March, the company’s cash balance stood at $41.5 million.

    Since then, cash in-flows have been $43 million, of which $30 million has come from the export contract that had been disrupted by COVID-19 for 12 months. The funds that were paid to Electro Optic Systems were drawn under an international letter of credit which fully covers this entire contract, through a major Australian bank.

    Pleasingly, Electro Optic Systems continues to produce and deliver against this contract.

    After the recent payment of $30 million, the company still has over $100 million in value of completed goods positioned at the customer’s location ready for handover. And with delivery and acceptance processes now operating normally, management anticipates further cash receipts of over $100 million from this business during the fourth quarter of 2021.

    Prior to today, the Electro Optic Systems share price was down 33% since the start of the year. So, today’s gain will no doubt be a big relief for shareholders.

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    James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Electro Optic Systems Holdings Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Electro Optic Systems Holdings Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

    The post Why the Electro Optic Systems (ASX:EOS) share price is jumping 15% today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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