In the sea of red across cryptocurrencies including bitcoin, stocks and commodities, gold has been one of few assets standing tall this week.

The Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) crash is making headlines today, with the leading cryptocurrency sliding as much as 30% to intraday lows of US$30,000 overnight. Cryptocurrencies across the board from Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) to meme-inspired Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) marked losses as steep as 50% amidst China’s hard stance on cryptocurrency and account liquidations.

While cryptocurrency might arguably the gold of the modern era, here’s why it might be time for gold to shine.

Why its time to take a second look at gold

Its been a rather uneventful year for gold up until this month.

Looking back, the yellow metal staged a record-breaking rally last year from pre-COVID levels of US$1,650 to US$2,075 for the first time on record. Coupled with a plummeting Australian dollar / US dollar which reached lows of less than 60 cents, ASX gold miners were raking in cash, quite literally.

After reaching its peak of US$2,075 by early August 2020, gold has struggled to find headway. But after bouncing off lows of US$1,680 in both March and April, there are a number of factors that could put the topic of gold back on the table.

Dumping Bitcoin for gold

Analysts at J.P. Morgan Chase have reported that large institutional investors are dumping Bitcoin in favour of gold. The investment bank pointed that the sudden crash in Bitcoin has coincided with new inflows into the yellow metal.

JP Morgan cited open interest data in Bitcoin futures contracts, saying:

The Bitcoin flow picture continues to deteriorate and is pointing to continued retrenchment by institutional investors. Over the past month, bitcoin futures markets experienced their steepest and more sustained liquidation since the Bitcoin ascent started last October.

Rising inflation vs. rising yields

Rising inflation erodes the purchasing power of fiat money. Gold is commonly viewed as an inflation hedge, as its price tends to rise when the cost of living increases. More recently, the US recorded a surge in inflation to 4.2% in April compared to a year ago. The expectation that higher inflation is here to stay, could be a driving factor behind the renewed interest in gold.

However, working against rising inflation could be higher yields. Since gold doesn’t pay any dividends, higher yields typically push the gold price lower. Coinciding with gold’s selloff between August 2020 and April 2021, US 10-year treasury yields more than tripled from 0.50% to a high of 1.76%. On Wednesday, treasury yields once again edged 2.50% higher to 1.68%.

Despite treasury yields ticking higher overnight, gold has marked a sixth session of strong gains, from US$1,815 last Thursday to US$1,870 at the time of writing.

Foolish takeaway

The ASX is home to some of the world’s largest and lowest-cost gold producers including Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) and Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM).

While Bitcoin might continue to behave in a whipsaw like action, gold has steadily made its way back up to a 5-month high this week.

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There is a group of ASX dividend shares that have been increasing the dividend for shareholders for many years in a row.

COVID-19 didn’t stop the income increases for investors. The underlying profit and cashflow were high enough that it meant the businesses could continue to grow the payouts for investors.

These two ASX dividend shares have managed to keep growing the dividend payout:

APA Group (ASX: APA)

APA describes itself as a leading Australian energy infrastructure business. Its gas transmission pipelines span every state on mainland Australia, delivering approximately half of the nation’s gas usage.

The infrastructure energy business has direct management and operational control over its assets and the majority of its investments. Not only does it own a large amount of gas pipelines around Australia, it’s also one of the largest owners and operators of renewable power generation assets, with wind and solar projects across Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland.

APA recently announced its first hybrid energy microgrid at the Gruyere Gold Mine in Western Australia, combining solar energy with battery energy storage.

The ASX dividend share has increased its distribution every year for a decade and a half. New projects generate more cashflow, which provides the funding for higher distributions.

APA recently announced it had reached a final investment decision (FID) to commence expansion of transportation capacity on its East Coast grid, linking Queensland with southern markets by approximately 25% for a total investment of $270 million.

At the current APA share price, it has a distribution yield of 5.5%.

Sonic Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SHL)

Sonic Healthcare is another ASX dividend share that has been increasing the payout to shareholders, every year since 2013.

The company has built a global portfolio of pathology businesses. Around 40% of revenue is being generated in Europe and the UK, another 25% in the US and the rest coming from Australia (and a very small contribution from New Zealand).

Long-term profit growth has helped send the dividend higher and higher.

FY19 saw the ASX dividend share’s net profit rise 15.6% and the dividend increased 3.7% to $0.84. FY20 saw underlying net profit growth of 6.5% with the full year dividend rising 1.2% to $0.85. The HY21 result showed net profit growth of 166%, with a steady 6% increase of the half-year dividend to $0.36 per share.

Why was the HY21 result so strong? It has seen significant revenue and earnings contribution from COVID-19 testing, leveraging existing infrastructure. More than 18 million COVID-19 PCR tests have been performed. It has seen margin improvements in both laboratory and imaging operations.

Management said that the volumes and quality of testing it has been able to achieve in such a short timeframe was a result of investments it has made over the years. That includes specimen collection facilities, courier networks, laboratories and other facilities, equipment, IT management, staff and supply chains. At the current Sonic share price it has a partially franked dividend yield of 2.5%.

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• 2 buy-rated ASX dividend shares with attractive yields

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The Seven Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: SVW) share price is tracking in the red today. This comes after the company announced an update to its share purchase plan (SPP).

During late afternoon trade, the diversified investment company’s shares are being exchanged for $19.90 apiece, down 1.31%.

Let’s take a closer look at Seven Group’s latest news.

What did Seven Group announce?

Investors are pushing the Seven Group share price lower, most likely as a result of the impending share dilution.

According to its release, Seven Group advised it has successfully completed its SPP, raising around $33.14 million. This will result in more than 1.68 million new ordinary shares being issued to participating shareholders.

The price listed is $19.73 per share, which reflects a marginal discount of less than 1% on the Seven Group share price’s current level. However, Seven Group noted from the time of the offer, the SPP is a 2.5% markdown on the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) for the 5 days ending 17 May.

In total, the company received 2,164 valid submissions from shareholders, representing an average amount of $15,314 per application.

The SPP follows a recent $500 million underwritten institutional placement that Seven Group launched last month. With the latest SPP included, the company has raised a total of $533.14 million.

Funds will be used to reduce the outstanding net debt, while restoring strength in its balance sheet to pursue opportunities.

Settlement of the newly created shares is expected to occur on 25 May, with commencement of trading the day after.

Seven Group share price summary

It’s been an interesting year for Seven Group shares, with the Seven Group share price having performed strongly during late 2020. In the past 12 months, the company’s share price has increased close to 30%, however, its year-to-date performance is down 15%.

On valuation grounds, Seven Group commands a market capitalisation of roughly $7.2 billion, with approximately 361 million shares outstanding.

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The financial markets are going through some turbulence at the moment. Yes, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is enjoying a day in the green today, up 1% to 7,000 points. But over the past month, the ASX 200 has been rather volatile. Just in the past 10 days alone, the ASX has gone from making a new record high of 7,172 points, to falling as low as 6,919 points yesterday.

Volatility abounds

The large US indexes are also showing some volatility. Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX: .DJI) is only ~2.5% off of the all-time high it hit earlier in the month, we have seen some significant gyrations in recent days. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (INDEXNASDAQ: .IXIC) Index has been far more tempestuous. After hitting its own record high back on 26 April, the Nasdaq has given up around 6% of its value since then. In just the past week, this index has gained 3% and lost 3%.

That’s just shares though. Other financial markets have been far more volatile. The bond market has been fluctuating wildly in recent months. According to CNBC, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries was around 1.56% on 6 May. By 12 May, it had risen to almost 1.7%, and is going for 1.66% at the time of writing. That might not sound like a big deal, but it does indicate a decisive shift in what markets are pricing in.

And we haven’t even got to cryptocurrencies yet. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) prices are currently at a 3-month low after cratering more than 22% in the past week alone. Since topping out at just over US$60,000 a coin in mid-April, Bitcoin is now priced at US$38,000.

All of this is connected to two things: interest rates and inflation. Well, more just interest rates, but the two usually come hand in hand and inflation normally comes first.

Interest rates and inflation

Until about a month ago, the markets were very content with both the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s complacency on inflation. Both central banks committed to only raising rates when inflation was comfortably above 2%, and both full employment and positive wage growth achieved.

Rates would not be going up for years, both banks said. And quantitative easing (QE) programs would also stay in place. 2024 was the year most floated as the earliest a rate hike might happen. In other words, both banks were telling us that markets could keep rising until then.

Today, those sunny skies are growing clouded. Said cloud is the inflation figures the US economy recorded for the month of April. The consumer price index (CPI) number, measuring price increases for American goods and services, rose by 0.9% for the month of April. That was the largest monthly rise since 2009. And it was also not what the Fed was predicting. At the time, Fed officials said that the rise was likely to be “transitory”.

But perhaps things are changing. The Fed has just released the minutes from its April meeting. While the bank reiterated its commitments in line with what we discussed above, it stated the following toward the end of its release:

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

The fickle Fed?

Now that sounds like the Fed is keeping the door open on adjusting monetary policy earlier than it otherwise has flagged. It’s certainly a departure from the iron-clad commitment to near-zero rates and QE until 2024. It all depends on future US inflation numbers if the April rise was indeed ‘transitory’ or the start of an inflation surge.

If it’s the latter scenario, it’s likely the US economy will see rate hikes before 2024. And if the US is hiking rates, it’s very likely our own RBA would have to follow suit. If this comes to pass, we can expect to see a lot of volatility on the ASX share market, as well as on global markets.

Interest rates change the game for shares. They make other assets, particularly ‘risk-free’ government bonds, more attractive to hold as investments. Many investors won’t be interested in a US government bond that pays an interest rate of 1.66% (around where it is today), even if it is risk-free. If that same bond is yielding 4, 5 or 6%, it’s a whole different kettle of fish. In the past, this has resulted in lower share prices.

Foolish takeaway

All of this is hypothetical. None of us truly know when the Fed, or the RBA, is going to adjust monetary policy. Or the impact such an adjustment might have on ASX shares. But the past does give us some clues, and they indicate that rates rising would be bad news for shares. So although this isn’t the most enthralling area to watch, it might still be well worth watching for every ASX share investor.

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Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) shares have been struggling recently in the wake of broader market volatility, the underperformance of tech shares and sharp selloffs in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) sector.

Today, the Afterpay share price has managed to work its way up to a 7.25% gain. But at its current level of $92.74 on Thursday, it’s still a long way off from its February highs of around $160.

With the company promising continued international expansion and hoping for explosive levels of growth, could the Afterpay share price be a bargain at current price levels? Here’s what Macquarie had to say on Thursday.

Macquarie upgrades Afterpay shares from neutral to outperform

Macquarie has come out with a bold upgrade for the Afterpay share price, retaining a $120 target price and outperform rating.

What’s surprising is that Macquarie’s upgrade comes not that long after its grim near-term commentary for the BNPL industry on 24 March. This was when the broker acknowledged the explosive growth of the sector but said that an “excessive number of participants has entered the industry in the near term resulting in industry overcapacity”.

The broker also said it expects this period to be followed by “a few years of industry consolidation (i.e., pain for all players) before industry normalisation at a healthier supply/demand equilibrium”.

In terms of a timeline, Macquarie’s research report said “the period of pain typically lasts for 1-2 years, followed by a year or so of recovery before share prices return to levels prior to oversupply”. By the industry normalisation stage, the broker believes that “not only does the industry come out more robust but typically the strong emerge stronger whilst the weak, weaker”.

In today’s broker note, Macquarie observed that there is limited brand loyalty among BNPL players in the United States. The broker’s survey reveals that an estimated 70% of users would prefer to sign up with a different BNPL provider rather than switch stores.

Macquarie does believe, however, that Afterpay could have an edge in the all-important US market given its large two-sided network of merchants and users. The broker’s findings rank Afterpay as the highest among its peers in the context of merchant/user networks.

The broker also shed light on brand perception in the US, ranking PayPal, Affirm and Afterpay in the top three, in that order, among the brands surveyed.

Foolish takeaway

Shareholders will no doubt be encouraged to see a previously cautious broker update its rating of Afterpay shares from neutral to outperform.

However, the recent drivers of the Afterpay share price have largely been outside of the company’s control. Factors such as the S&P/ASX 200 Info Tech Index (ASX: XIJ) falling 15% year to date, the Affirm share price sitting around record lows and smaller ASX-listed BNPL shares such as Laybuy Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: LBY) and Openpay Group Ltd (ASX: OPY) sliding more than 50% in the last 12 months are likely to have dragged on the Afterpay share price.

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The Advanced Human Imaging Ltd (ASX: AHI) share price has been a very strong performer on Thursday.

 In afternoon trade, the software company’s shares are up over 15% to $1.82.

Why is the Advanced Human Imaging share price surging higher?

Investors have been buying the shares of Advanced Human Imaging, formerly known as MyFiziq, following the release of an announcement today.

According to the release, the company has signed a binding terms sheet with US based on-device blood pathology company Jana Care.

The release explains that Jana Care has developed and patented an on-device blood screening tool called Aina. The patented Aina device is capable of providing rapid, accurate readouts of key blood chemistry elements in several chronic disease categories – cardiovascular, renal and metabolic (CVRM). It is used in over 1,500 clinics by over 10,000 health workers with more than 200,000 patients.

The company notes that the device delivers rapid, accurate readouts that are extremely valuable for healthcare partners and patients that have deployed personal health management apps via their carers, life/health insurers, wellness managers, fitness organizations, and telehealth doctors/facilities.

Furthermore, the device avoids the need for the patient to go to a medical facility or phlebologist to provide blood and then wait for the results.

What now?

The Aina device diagnostic solution will be provided by Advanced Human Imaging via its CompleteScan app to its partners for their onward use by selected persons whose blood chemistry information is needed on a timely and accurate basis.

The first demonstratable product is expected to be made available in the third quarter of 2021.

Advanced Human Imaging’s Chief Executive Officer, Vlado Bosanac, commente: “The commercial distribution arrangement we have undertaken with Jana is an extremely important addition to the remote care and health assessment platform we are delivering to our partners and the vast communities they service around the world. The work Jana has and is doing in the care and identification of chronic disease is of paramount importance and a perfect addition to our offering.”

“The use case is powerful, when a user performs a FaceScan or a BodyScan we are able to detect a number of potential risk parameters that relate to chronic diseases. These markers are not dissimilar to the checks a doctor would perform when a patient is attending the doctors practice. If the performed scans identify any of the markers, this will assist the care provider in the need to facilitate a blood test, at which time via the Aina device we will facilitate the draw, analysis and diagnostic reports for both the patient, doctor and care provider.”

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The Estrella Resources Ltd (ASX: ESR) share price has shot up today after the company intersected “massive” nickel and copper sulphides in West Australia’s Carr Boyd ranges.

Estrella shares are up 17% at 5.5 cents at the time of writing, after peaking this morning at an intraday high of 6.5 cents.

Let’s take a closer look at the latest results from its 100% owned Kimberley mine.

“Massive nickel, copper sulphide potential”

Estrella’s most recent drilling hole intersected a 12.9 metre long zone of massive, semi-massive, breccia, matrix and
disseminated nickel, copper and iron sulphides.

The company is seeking to become a large ore producer, and this find reinforces a previous intersection of nickel and copper sulphides found 40 metres north of the current strike zone.

According to the company’s update, the sulphide and rock textures in this drilling region confirm basal contact mineralisation and “massive nickel and copper sulphide potential”.

The core of these findings is now being cut away and sent for assays, which usually take one to two weeks to return an accurate grade result.

Estrella was particularly encouraged by the drilling results, as it accelerates its third phase of drilling in the region to test downhole electromagnetic targets. It’s also currently looking to find additional potential zones.

Estrella management comments

Estrella managing director Chris Daws welcomed the results, saying:

I am extremely pleased with this significant intersection as it further validates our exploration strategy at the T5 Conductor. Make no mistake, our resolve to locate a world-class orebody for our shareholders is unwavering and this intersection is yet another promising sign that we are homing in on this orebody.

Phase 3 drilling in particular has been highly successful, with a 100 per cent strike rate for hitting nickel-copper sulphides.

Estrella share price snapshot

Estrella investors had the time of their life in October last year, when the Estrella share price shot from one cent to 17 cents in two days, a casual 450% rise.

Since then it’s been on a downward trend back to earth, and has fallen around 30% this year-to-date despite today’s huge gains.

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In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to record a solid gain. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is up 1.1% to 7,009.7 points.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here’s why they are tumbling lower:

Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) 

The Flight Centre share price is down 3% to $14.83. Investors have been selling Flight Centre and other travel booking shares following an update by Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN). The airline operator revealed that it would be cutting travel agent commissions for international flights from 5% to 1% from 2022 as part of its plan to reduce its cost of sales.

Iluka Resources Limited (ASX: ILU)

The Iluka share price has fallen 5.5% to $7.71 following the release of an update on its Sierre Rutile operation. According to the release, the operation has been struggling with business challenges recently. In light of this, it will be pausing production later this year for six months. During the break, management will evaluate whether it can continue its operations in its current mining area. It also withdrew its production guidance of 145,000 tonnes of rutile over 2021.

Nuix Ltd (ASX: NXL)

The Nuix share price has sunk 8% to $3.37. This decline appears to have been driven by reports of a major legal case that could include damages of more than $200 million. According to the SMH, former CEO Eddie Sheehy triggered the lawsuit after Nuix slashed the value of options issued to him. That decision cost Sheehy $118 million in Nuix’s December IPO.

Oil Search Ltd (ASX: OSH)

The Oil Search share price is down 2% to $3.72. Investors may be selling Oil Search’s shares today following a pullback in oil prices overnight. Both Brent and WTI crude oil prices fell 3% amid concerns over rising COVID-19 cases in Asia.

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Shares in PainChek Ltd (ASX: PCK) are gaining today after news the company has received regulatory clearances for its app, PainChek Infant. At the time of writing, the PainChek share price is up 6.15%, with shares in the company swapping hands for 6.9 cents apiece.

As a result of the clearances, PainChek can market its pain sensing app for babies in Australia, Europe, the United Kingdom, Canada, Singapore, and New Zealand.

PainChek also announced its successful Infant Face-Only study is being peer-reviewed for publication. The study determined the app could successfully analyse a baby’s facial expressions and evaluate if they’re in pain.

Let’s take a closer look at the latest news from Painchek.  

PainChek Infant

Painchek has announced that it’s received a number of regulatory approvals needed market its PainChek Infant app.

The company now plans to launch its infant app in a number of countries. It will focus particularly on the hospital and home care markets.

PainChek says that its app can help healthcare professionals, parents, and carers to evaluate if a non-verbal child is in pain. Additionally, the app will help gauge how much pain the child is in.

According to PainChek, there are around 400 million pre-verbal children globally. Moreover, one quarter is born to first-time parents. Furthermore, PainChek stated this gives it a large market entry point.

The company also said that, while clinicians have access to paper-based pain measuring tools for infants, they are rarely used. Additionally, it claimed that high levels of exposure to pained infants can sometimes lead to medical professionals dismissing babies’ pain signals.

PainChek plans to continue expanding its app’s abilities. Currently, it is working to broaden the age range of children whose pain can be assessed. It will do so by conducting further research and clinical studies. It is also currently conducting a study at Melbourne’s Royal Children’s Hospital.

PainChek already has an app available that uses facial expressions to sense pain in non-verbal adults.

Commentary from management

PainChek’s CEO Philip Daffas commented on the PainChek Infant app’s approval, saying:

We’re delighted to achieve this regulatory milestone ahead of schedule and continue to expand PainChek’s global markets. The PainChek Infant App is unique in that it completes a microfacial analysis through a 3 second video assessment and provides the carer with an instant result in relation to the infant’s pain severity level…

Having established the initial PainChek Adult App and the business model in aged care, this broad portfolio of offerings provides the foundation for our global market entry into the larger home care and the hospital markets.

PainChek share price snapshot

The PainChek share price needs the good news as it battles a tough 2021 on the ASX.

Currently, the PainChek share price is down 12.5% year to date. It’s also fallen 56% since this time last year.

The company has a market capitalisation of around $73 million, with approximately 1.1 billion shares outstanding.

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The Australian Agricultural Company Ltd (ASX: AAC) share price is edging lower during mid-afternoon trade. This follows the company’s release of its full-year results for the 2021 financial year.

At the time of writing, the Australian cattle producer’s shares are fetching for $1.20, down 1.6%.

How did Australian Agricultural Company perform for FY21?

Investors are hitting the sell button in light of the company’s challenging COVID-19 economic environment.

For the period ending 31 March 2021, the Australian Agricultural Company reported a fall in meat and cattle sales. The business experienced lower calving in 2018-2020 due to a prolonged drought and the Gulf flood event, which impacted 2021’s result.

Meat sales dropped to $200 million, reflecting a 29.6% decline from the $229.6 million achieved in the prior corresponding period.

Cattle sales on the other hand, also sunk to $65.5 million, tumbling 39% from $104.5 million recorded in FY20.

Overall, total sales came to $265.5 million, signifying a 68.6% downturn on the $334.1 million made this time last year.

Operating profit lifted to $24.4 million, with $17.7 million included pre-JobKeeper. This reflected a jump from the $15.2 million received over the prior comparable period. The improved metric was attributed to higher meat sales per kilo, up 8% which offset the 19% fall in meat volume sales. In addition, management carefully reduced costs across the business which supported the strong performance.

As a result, statutory earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) came to $99.3 million, an increase of $19.2 million over FY20.

Net tangible sales per share jumped to $1.75, compared against $1.53 from the end of March last year. This was driven by improvements in the livestock market values and in the property portfolio.

Australian Agricultural Company noted it retains a robust balance sheet, with comfortable headroom under existing bank covenants. The closing cash balance stood at $8.9 million, however, the business has over $1 billion in net assets.

Management commentary

Australian Agricultural Company managing director and CEO, Hugh Killen said:

The fundamentals of the business remain strong and we’ve made progress with our brands, which is encouraging considering the ongoing challenges that we will navigate over the coming few years.

The last 12 months have been dominated by uncertainty across many industries and ongoing disruption across our key markets around the world.

Importantly though, our herd rebuild has commenced, with a 47% increase in calves in FY21 compared to FY20.

Australian Agricultural Company share price summary

Over the past 12 months, Australian Agricultural Company shares have risen just under 10%. The company’s share price reached a high of $1.24 in early April before profit-taking swooped in. However, its shares have rebound and are within a whisker of breaking new territory.

Australian Agricultural Company has a market capitalisation of roughly $729 million, with around 602 million shares outstanding.

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