The Premier Investments Limited (ASX: PMV) share price was on form on Wednesday following the release of its half year results.

The retail conglomerate’s shares rose over 2.5% to end the day at $23.84.

How did Premier Investments perform in the first half?

Premier Investments was a very positive performer during the first half of FY 2021.

It reported a 7.2% increase in global sales to $784.6 million and an 88.9% jump in net profit to $188.2 million.

Key drivers of this growth were its Peter Alexander business, wage and rent subsidies, and a significant lift in online sales across the business. This helped offset weakness in the Smiggle business caused by COVID-19.

Can the Premier Investments share price climb higher?

According to one leading broker, the Premier Investments share price may have peaked and could come under pressure in the near future.

A note out of Goldman Sachs this morning reveals that its analysts have retained their sell rating and cut their price target to $20.20.

Based on the current Premier Investments share price, this implies potential downside of 15.3% over the next 12 months.

What did Goldman say?

Goldman commented: “PMV’s 1H21 earnings continue to benefit from wage and rent subsidies of c. A$15.6mn and c. A$26mn. We adjust for these subsidies in our forecasts, and our revised EBIT forecasts imply a 4 year CAGR of 3.8% over FY19-23e.”

It appears to believe that this growth rate isn’t enough to justify its shares trading at 23x estimated FY 2022 earnings.

In addition to this, Goldman has concerns over the outlook of the key Smiggle business.

Its analysts explained: “The outlook for Smiggle will be volatile as European stores remain closed for much of the remainder of FY21, although back to school in the UK could provide a late swing to sales. We revise our sales forecasts for Smiggle by -14.5% in FY21 but less materially at -4.5% in FY22, as we update for the ongoing store closures in Europe before a forecast recovery into FY22.”

The broker also believes that the Peter Alexander business will struggle to maintain its level of sales post-COVID.

Goldman said: “We revise Peter Alexander sales by +9.2% in FY21 reflecting the stronger momentum in sales to date. However, expectations are unchanged from FY23 as we expect the significant increase in FY20 and FY21 to be difficult to sustain beyond the short term.”

Overall, the broker sees more value in other retailers than it does in the current Premier Investments share price.

More reading

• ASX 200 rises, Airtasker soars again, Westpac considers NZ
• ASX 200 up 0.45%: Premier Investments results, Xero acquisition, Computershare halted
• Why Alcidion, GrainCorp, Premier Investments, & Xero are storming higher
• Why is the Premier Investments (ASX:PMV) share price on the rise?
• 2 ASX 200 shares to buy for income

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Premier Investments Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

The post Top broker puts sell rating on Premier Investments (ASX:PMV) share price appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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An expert has warned share markets could crash in the coming quarter if one metric fails to stay in its favour.

Watermark Funds Management chief investment officer Justin Braitling told clients that the post-COVID “reflation trade may be maturing sooner than we previously thought”.

“Is a bubble forming in shares?” he said in a memo.

“Price signals in bond and currency markets are key to reflation. The US dollar, along with bond prices, peaked in March of last year when the share market bottomed.”

Braitling warned of dire consequences for share markets if the US dollar’s descent turns around to a rebound.

“In recent weeks, the US dollar is looking like it may have bottomed for now,” he said.

“If the low is in for the USD, we are likely to see a reversal in the reflation trade and a setback for equities and commodities in the near term. This is the first major red flag we have seen for the reflation settings in a year and should be monitored carefully.”

A second quarter US dollar rally could be disaster

Braitling told clients that the coming quarter could see chaos for investors.

“Watch the USD – it holds the key,” he said.

“Positioning is extreme, everyone is short the dollar, which means a Q2 rally and associated sell-offs in equities could be one of the big surprises for this year.”

Oddly enough, the Australian dollar will remain strong through any movements in the greenback, as the local currency is heavily associated with commodity prices.

And that’s also a headwind for ASX shares, as it makes Australian companies less competitive in a global market.

“If we are correct, the high for the AUD at 80 [US cents] is probably in for the medium term and equities could be in for a rough ride in Q2 2021.”

What shares do Watermark hold in its portfolio?

Braitling said that while his team’s game is to assess each stock on its merits, the macroeconomic shift in the post-pandemic world could not be ignored.

Therefore the Watermark Absolute Return Fund is currently holding:

• Value stocks with post-COVID tailwinds emerging
• Commodities shares: “We are bullish on commodities. There is both structural constraints in supply and heightened demand expected. This comes with a more favourable inflation/yield environment.”

And the fund is currently avoiding:

• Expensive technology shares: “We still think tech is a brilliant and exciting sector. We are holding companies that will generate huge shareholder value regardless of what the yield environment holds, but tech that has simply seen valuation benefit from low rates should be avoided.”
• Defensive income shares like infrastructure and utilities: “However, we look favourably on those that will benefit from reopening, such as airports.”

More reading

• Will tech shares ever rise again?
• Why the Resolute (ASX:RSG) share price will be in focus this morning
• 2 of the best small cap ASX shares to buy
• Why the NRW (ASX:NWH) share price is on watch
• 2 quality ASX dividend shares with generous yields

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The share market rally of 2020, and perhaps the entire decade prior to COVID-19, was led by technology stocks.

For example, the S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX) put on 125% last year after the pandemic crash in March 2020.

And the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQ: .IXIC) has gained a stunning 382% in the last 10 years.

But the last couple of months has seen a violent rotation from growth to value stocks, as investors fear increasing inflation and bond yields.

So is this the end of an era? Have technology shares had their day?

The golden years are done

Watermark Funds Management chief investment officer Justin Braitling reckons two big forces that buoyed tech are fading fast.

“The golden years of leadership from technology and growth seem, for the time being, behind us,” he said in a memo to clients.

“Of the two major tailwinds pushing technology shares higher — the health crisis and low interest rates — one is abating (COVID) and the other is reversing (real interest rates).”

And interest rates are “likely to keep moving higher in the medium term”, according to Braitling.

“The prospects of a second tech boom to complete this bull market looks less likely,” he said.

“As the fundamental drivers of technology adoption are very much intact, the sector can still perform but is unlikely to lead the way it has in recent years.”

It’s not the end for tech shares though 

While they may no longer be market leaders, there is still plenty of upside for the technology sector, said Braitling.

“There is still tremendous momentum in each of the enablers of technology adoption: e-commerce, cloud and SaaS computing, the internet of things, and big data, to name the main ones,” he said.

“This has become obvious to businesses and households awash with liquidity. They will keep investing given penetration is still early for many of these services.”

The pandemic absolutely accelerated adoption of many technologies out of necessity. And while this revolution would slow down, the coronavirus has forever changed the mindset of many.

“COVID was a great awakening to the benefits of a digital economy — that message has not been lost on a single business we speak to,” said Braitling.

“Those that lead in technology will invest to stay in front and the slow adopters caught wanting through the crisis will spend to catch up.”

The fund manager noted, in the past 10 years, earnings per share (EPS) for tech stocks have outpaced non-tech businesses. This is despite the share prices for the tech sector climbing up.

T Rowe Price Group Inc (NASDAQ: TROW) portfolio manager Scott Berg said much the same in a webinar on Wednesday.

“Over time, if you invest with reasonable valuations, stock prices follow earnings and cash flows,” he said.

“A lot of the most dynamic growth companies [today] actually have incredible economics — meaningfully different than companies back in the last tech bubble. They have very high margins, very low capital requirements, they have typically net cash balance sheets with tremendous operating leverage.”

More reading

• Value vs growth shares: which will win?
• We’re betting on ASX growth shares: global fund

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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Investors will be watching Resolute Mining Limited (ASX: RSG) shares today after the company provided an update on its Bibiani Gold Mine last night. The gold miner’s shares have been in a trading halt since yesterday morning pending a company announcement. Following last night’s update, it’s most likely shares will resume normal trading today.

The Resolute share price last traded at 63 cents at Tuesday’s market close.

What did Resolute announce?

The Resolute share price could be under pressure today as investors weigh up the company’s shock announcement.

According to its release, Resolute has received notification from the Ghanaian Minerals Commission that its mining lease for the Bibiani Gold Mine has been terminated. All activities and operations at the site have been instructed to cease immediately following the decision.

It will be interesting to see how the Resolute share price responds this morning after the company said the action is unexpected and it will seek clarification from the Minister’s office for the reason behind the termination. Furthermore, legal advice is being taken on the validity of the notice, the company’s rights of appeal, and a potential recourse.

Late last year, Resolute entered a binding agreement to sell the Bibiani Gold Mine to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co. Ltd (Chifeng). The $105 million deal was expected to be finalised during the first quarter of 2021. However, with the latest roadblock, it seems Resolute may have to review its options.

More on the Bibiani Gold Mine

Located in Ghana, the Bibiani Gold Mine was acquired by Resolute in 2014. Since then, the company has run two surface and underground resource drilling programs to re-assess the mine’s potential.

Its most updated feasibility study found that the Bibiani Gold Mine contains 2.5 million ounces of mineral resources. In addition, the project could produce approximately 100,000 ounces over a 10-year mine life at an all-in sustaining cost of US$764 per ounce.

About the Resolute share price

The Resolute share price has lost around 28% of its value in the past 12 months. Year to date, the company’s shares have not fared much better, down roughly 25% on the back of the falling gold spot price.

Based on the current share price, Resolute commands a market capitalisation of about $695 million, with 1.1 billion shares outstanding.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• These are the 10 most shorted shares on the ASX
• ASX 200 down 0.15%: Westpac asset sale, Webjet update, gold miners jump
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• These are the 10 most shorted shares on the ASX

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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If your risk profile allows for it, having a little exposure to the small side of the market can be a good thing for a portfolio due to the strong potential returns on offer.

But which small cap ASX shares should you buy? Two that have been named as buys are listed below. Here’s what you need to know about them:

Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (ASX: BTH)

Bigtincan provides businesses across the world with an integrated, online sales enablement platform called Bigtincan Hub. This hub is a powerful, collaborative, and secure solution that automatically delivers the most relevant content to the right users directly, across any device and any network.

The company notes that its software allows sales and service organisations to increase their sales win rates, reduce expenditures, and improve customer satisfaction.

A testament to the quality of the platform is that 7 of the top 10 companies on the Fortune 500 are using it. As is banking giant Australia and New Zealand Banking GrpLtd (ASX: ANZ).

Last month Bigtincan released its half year results and reported annualised recurring revenue (ARR) of $48.4 million. This was a 50% increase over the prior corresponding period and driven by organic growth and the benefits of acquisitions.

This went down well with analysts at Ord Minnett. The broker has put a buy rating and $1.08 price target on its shares. It was pleased with its performance and believes Bigtincan has a long runway for growth in a large addressable market.

Whispir (ASX: WSP)

Whispir’s provides businesses with an intelligent and powerful communications workflow platform. Management notes that its platform revolutionises customer engagement, business resilience, and operational communications processes.

Its intuitive workflow builder allows users to quickly and reliably automate manual business processes. It also helps users create an automated workflow that is completely customisable to the business and use case.

Whispir’s platform is also used by a number of large companies. This includes AIA, Nespresso, Takata, and energy company AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL).

It was on form during the first half of FY 2021. The company reported a 29.2% increase in its ARR to $47.4 million. Pleasingly, more of the same is expected in the second half.

Ord Minnett is also positive on Whispir. It currently has a buy rating and $4.25 price target on its shares.

More reading

• 2 exciting small cap ASX shares with huge growth potential
• 3 small cap ASX shares rated as buys
• Brokers name 2 exciting small cap ASX shares to buy
• 2 excellent ASX growth shares to buy
• ASX tech correction? 10 of the worst-hit shares

James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends BIGTINCAN FPO and Whispir Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BIGTINCAN FPO and Whispir Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

The post 2 of the best small cap ASX shares to buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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More reading

• 2 of the best small cap ASX shares to buy
• Why the NRW (ASX:NWH) share price is on watch
• 2 quality ASX dividend shares with generous yields
• Top global fund manager says “Markets are in a bubble”
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Kate O’Brien owns shares of Apple and Rio Tinto Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Alphabet (A shares), Alphabet (C shares), and Apple. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet (A shares), Alphabet (C shares), and Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The NRW Holdings Limited (ASX: NWH) share price is on watch after an acquisition update from the Aussie mining services group.

Why is the NRW share price on watch?

NRW announced that it has completed the compulsory acquisition of outstanding Primero Group Ltd (ASX: PGX) shares. That means the diversified Aussie mining and construction services group now owns 100% of Primero shares.

It follows NRW’s 24 November 2020 announcement about its $100 million offer for Primero. Primero is a vertically integrated engineering group operating on global resource projects across Australia and North America.

Under the terms of the offer, Primero shareholders received 27.5 cents cash plus 0.106 NRW shares for each Primero share. The NRW share price has been under pressure in recent months including a 33% decline in 2021.

Last night’s compulsory acquisition update follows a February update on the process. NRW was trying to entice Primero shareholders who were holding out on the deal with accelerated payment terms. That meant those who accepted the terms prior to compulsory acquisition would be paid within 10 days of valid acceptances.

Shares in the mining and construction services provider fell 16% in one day. That happened on 16 February after the group’s half-year results for 1H 2021. NRW reported a 44% increase in revenue to $1.168 billion and a 28% increase in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to $132.8 million.

However, the NRW share price fell as profits slumped lower. Net profit after tax and before amortisation and other items fell 12% to $40.3 million.

Foolish takeaway

Yesterday’s announcement effectively brings to a close this chapter of NRW’s latest takeover. The NRW share price will be worth watching in today’s trade after the company successfully moved to acquire 100% of Primero shares on offer.

The Aussie mining and construction services group has been under pressure in 2021 and is underperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

NRW closed Wednesday’s session with a $903 million market capitalisation and a 12.4 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio.

More reading

• These were the worst performing ASX 200 shares in February

Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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Are you looking for some dividend options for your portfolio this week? Then check out the two ASX shares listed below.

Both these dividend shares offer investors generous yields and appear well-placed for growth over the long term. Here’s what you need to know about them:

Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (ASX: CQE)

The first ASX dividend share to look at is the Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT.

Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT is a real estate investment trust with a focus on high quality social infrastructure properties. The company’s portfolio includes properties such as childcare centres and government buildings. These are properties with specialist use, limited competition, low substitution risk, and long leases.

In respect to the latter, at the end of the first half of FY 2021, the Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT portfolio was 99.7% leased with a weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 14 years. This helped underpin a solid profit result for the period.

Furthermore, this strong form allowed the company to increase its FY 2021 distribution guidance to 15.7 cents per unit. Based on the current Charter Hall Social Infrastructure share price, this represents a 5.15% yield.

Rural Funds Group (ASX: RFF)

Rural Funds is another ASX dividend share which benefits from ultra long leases. At the last count, the Australian agricultural property company had a WALE of 11.1 years.

And given that these leases have fixed rental increases built into them, the company is well-positioned to grow its distribution by its target rate of 4% per annum long into the future.

In FY 2021, the company intends to pay a distribution of 11.28 cents per share to its shareholders. After which, Rural Funds has provided guidance for an FY 2022 distribution of 11.73 cents per share.

Based on the current Rural Funds share price, this will mean yields of 4.8% and 5%, respectively, over the next couple of years.

More reading

• 2 ASX dividend shares for steady income in retirement
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• Is Australia’s stagnant wage growth worse than we thought?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended RURALFUNDS STAPLED. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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One of the fund managers from global investment outfit, Scott Berg from T. Rowe Price, has said that markets are in a bubble.

What’s the track record of this fund manager?

There are many different opinions out there, so it may be worth paying attention to a fund manager that has performed well.

Scott Berg has important responsibilities for different funds. One of the funds that he is involved with is the T. Rowe Price Global Equity Fund. He took over running the fund in June 2012. Since then, the fund’s net returns have been 19.4% per annum and over the last five years that fund has produced net returns of 19.9% per annum.

It’s a truly globally-focused fund, with 54% of the fund invested in US shares. At the end of February, some of its biggest 10 holdings include: Amazon.com, Alphabet, Alibaba, Evotec, Facebook, Goldman Sachs, Rivian Automotive, Apple and Charles Schwab.

“Markets are in a bubble”

The Australian Financial Review quoted Mr Berg who said that he believes some valuations have gone too far and that markets are in a new bubble.

He had a number of interesting comments about the market:

When I look at retail sentiment, when I look at some of the crazy things going on, when I look at valuations above average, I think that we’re probably somewhere in a bubble but it could be very early and this makes it really tricky to navigate.

We’re far from the peak of a bubble, in my humble estimation. But equally, I think there are a number of bubblicious-type things. And so expect volatility, expect dispersion.

When I look at retail sentiment, when I look at some of the crazy things going on, when I look at valuations above average, I think that we’re probably somewhere in a bubble but it could be very early and this makes it really tricky to navigate.

So what shares are T Rowe looking at?

Not Tesla, he apparently has sold over 90% of the position in Tesla, whilst still being optimistic about the company’s long-term prospects. He’s still positive about the electric vehicle market – as I mentioned, the fund owns a position in Rivian.

Amazon has bought 100,000 electric delivery vehicles from Rivian – showing the level of demand.

There are the shares that I mentioned that earlier in the article that the T Rowe fund owns.

He’s also thinking about growth shares that have been sold off as investors recently in the rotation to value shares.

The AFR quoted Mr Berg, who said:

What excites me about a number of these growth stocks is that it’s actually contrarian to buy Zoom video right now.

If you ask someone what the valuation of Zoom is right now, they are not even looking at it. They just say: ‘Mate, that’s not going to work for you. That was a COVID beneficiary, we’re in a value trade’.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday
• 2 ASX shares that may be hit by Australia’s declining birth rate
• Is Temple & Webster (ASX:TPW) the best e-commerce ASX share to buy right now?
• The Regional Express (ASX:REX) share price has fallen after fresh Qantas challenge
• DUG Technology (ASX:DUG) share price flying 17% higher today

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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On Wednesday the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) was on form and stormed higher. The benchmark index rose 0.5% to 6,778.8 points.

Will the market be able to build on this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 futures pointing lower

The Australian share market looks set to edge lower on Thursday morning following a mixed night of trade on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 9 points or 0.1% lower this morning. In late trade on Wall Street, the Dow Jones is up 0.55%, the S&P 500 has risen 0.1%, and the Nasdaq is down 1.25%.

Tech shares on watch

It could be a tough day for ASX tech shares such as Xero Limited (ASX: XRO) and Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P) on Thursday after US tech stocks came under pressure again during overnight trade. At the time of writing, the tech-focused Nasdaq index is down 1.25%. This follows declines by a number of tech giants.

Oil prices rebound

Energy producers Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Woodside Petroleum Limited (ASX: WPL) could charge higher today after oil prices rebounded. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 5.5% to US$60.91 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price has risen 5.5% to US$64.19 a barrel. An issue at the Suez Canal which is blocking the key trade route gave oil prices a boost.

Gold price pushes higher

Gold miner Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM) could be on the rise today after the gold price pushed higher. According to CNBC, the spot gold price is up 0.5% to US$1,733.30 an ounce. The gold price climbed after bond yields continued to soften. In other industry news, the Ghanaian government has told gold miner Resolute Mining Limited (ASX: RSG) that its Bibiani Gold Mine licence has been terminated. As a result, it has been advised to cease all activities and operations at the site.

Brickworks half year result

The Brickworks Limited (ASX: BKW) share price will be one to watch this morning when it releases its half year results. In November the building products company revealed that its Building Products Australia business had made a strong start to FY 2021. However, this was being offset partly by weakness in the North American market.

More reading

• ASX 200 rises, Airtasker soars again, Westpac considers NZ
• How is Australia’s jobs rebound affecting ASX shares?
• How are ASX 200 shares faring in the carbon revolution?
• How are New Zealand-based ASX shares performing ahead of a likely recession?
• Genex (ASX:GNX) share price frozen on hydro project fund raising

James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Brickworks. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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