• Why the Mercury (ASX:MCY) share price is on watch

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    The Mercury NZ Ltd (ASX: MCY) share price is one share worth watching in early trade. It comes as the Kiwi electricity generator and retailer provided its latest quarterly update to the market.

    Why is the Mercury share price on watch?

    Mercury this morning provided its quarterly update for the period ended 31 March 2021 (Q3 2021). The company highlighted persistent dry conditions and price uplifts as key factors in the latest numbers.

    Mercury’s hydro generation increased by 8.5% over Q3 2020 figures to 910 gigawatt hours (GWh) despite Waikato catchment inflows being 168GWh below average. Those higher production numbers came as the company responded to higher spot prices in the market. Notably, Mercury’s hydro generation forecast remains unchanged at 3,800GWh for the full year.

    Below average national hydro storage inflows for the quarter caused total hydro storage to decline. Hydro storage fell 1,818GWh below average by the end of the quarter as a result of the conditions. Combined with thermal fuel constraints at key gas fields, these low inflows helped push spot prices higher.

    The Mercury share price slumped 3.3% lower yesterday to close at $6.18 per share. Shares in the Kiwi ‘gentailer’ will be worth watching again today after the latest update on trading performance and expected conditions.

    Mercury said its sale portfolio further tilted towards commercial and industrial during the quarter. Total sales volumes in this segment increased by 16.1% to 858GWh in Q3 2021. However, Mercury reported a national demand decrease of 1.4% in Q3 2021 compared to the prior corresponding period.

    Reduced demand in the industrial (-0.9%) and irrigation (-0.4%) sectors played a key factor in the quarterly results. Mercury also noted smaller shifts in urban (-0.1%), rural (-0.2%) and dairy (+0.2%) in the latest quarter.

    What about the Tilt Renewables deal?

    The Mercury share price is on watch, particularly given the company’s other activities right now. That includes forming a part of the AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL) led consortium looking to purchase Tilt Renewables Ltd (ASX: TLT).

    On Friday, the big news was that the QIC/AGL/Mercury group had upped their offer for Tilt to $8.10 per share.

    Canadian pension fund CDPQ had made a last-ditch attempt to snatch Tilt for $8 per share before the trans-Tasman group upper their price. Importantly, the revised bid also removed a provision allowing Tilt to assess competing proposals.

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    Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • 3 sectors Aussies are splashing cash on right now

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    Australians are ploughing their cash into travel, entertainment and real estate as the country well and truly moves past the COVID-19 recession.

    That’s the finding from the latest Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) Household Spending Intentions (HSI) survey that analysed spending in March.

    The rebound in consumer activity matches the bank’s economists’ forecast that Australia would return to pre-pandemic growth levels by the first quarter of this year.

    “The stronger Household Spending Intentions report is another signal that Australia’s economic recovery is ongoing,” said CBA chief economist Stephen Halmarick.

    CBA economists expect Australia’s gross domestic product to grow 4.7% this year, while the unemployment rate drops to 5%.

    The HSI each month combines the bank’s customer behaviour analysis with Google Trends data to form a view on where Australians want to spend their money.

    Australians want to travel

    The ban on international transit and localised lockdowns have Australians clamouring to travel again.

    The sector saw the biggest year-on-year jump in spending intentions in the March survey.

    “The travel sector was among the hardest hit by the onset of the COVID pandemic, with border closures and a country-wide lockdown stifling nearly all travel-related activity,” Halmarick said. 

    “This month’s data, while distorted by base-effects, still demonstrates how far the sector has recovered since last year.”

    The 12 months to March saw local facilities like amusement parks, aquariums, hotels, motels, resorts and motor homes attract increased interest. However, the annual pace of spending went backwards for air travel, cruising, timeshare accommodation, travel agents and coach lines.

    Australians want to be entertained

    The entertainment sector also enjoyed a big jump in interest and patronage in the month of March.

    “A year ago, bars, clubs, restaurants and movie theatres wrangled with the swiftly escalating restrictions in the lead-up to a country-wide lockdown,” said Halmarick.

    “This March, the picture for this sector is much improved, as pent-up demand among consumers helped spur both actual and prospective spending on the category.”

    Within the sector, bars, restaurants, fast food outlets, boat rentals, bowling alleys, cable TV, movie theatres, dance halls, studios and schools, digital books, movies and music, and musical theatre venues fared the best.

    Australians want real estate 

    It’s already been well-publicised that the residential real estate market has been soaring the past 6 months.

    The HSI confirms this, with spending intentions for property hitting an all-time high. Home loan applications and Google searches for homes skyrocketed in March. 

    Halmarick said near-zero interest rates were to blame.

    “We continue to see demand for residential property as a key source of support for the Australian economy in 2021.”

    The CBA previously forecast that residential real estate prices would be up 8% nationally this year then another 6% in 2022. House prices alone are expected to end up 9% higher by the end of the year.

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    Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Tony Yoo owns shares of Alphabet (A shares). The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Alphabet (A shares) and Alphabet (C shares). The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet (A shares) and Alphabet (C shares). The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Broker tips REA Group (ASX:REA) share price to shoot higher from here

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    The REA Group Limited (ASX: REA) share price has been an exceptionally strong performer over the last 12 months.

    Since this time last year, the property listings company’s shares have almost doubled in value.

    While some of this is due to the REA Group share price tumbling lower this time last year at the height of the pandemic, it is worth noting that it is still up 35% from its pre-COVID high.

    Can the REA Group share price still go higher?

    A note out of Goldman Sachs this morning reveals that its analysts believe the company’s shares can still go higher from here.

    According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating and lifted its price target to $179.00.

    Based on the latest REA Group share price, this price target implies potential upside of 13.5% over the next 12 months.

    What did the broker say?

    Goldman Sachs made the move in response to REA Group’s price increase plans that will take effect from July.

    It commented: “Following the deferred 2020 increase, REA is increasing pricing +6-11% in 2021, and capping 2022 increases to +5-6%. Across the states, this comprises +8% increases in Inner Sydney, +7-9% Inner Melbourne and +6-11% in Tasmania. REA is also introducing ‘Premiere Max’ with pricing increasing +20%/+5% in year 1/2. All contracts include: (1) Length extended to 120 days (from 60); (2) Flex, which allows 20% of listings to pay marketing costs on sale (at a +20% premium), while Premiere Max has discounted access to Audience Maximiser (FB/website marketing) on all listings.”

    “These underlying price increases are broadly consistent with our prior estimate (GSe prior +11% yield growth in FY22, with +8% price), but with some potential upside risk if Premiere Max has a high level of take-up. We are also encouraged by the relative outperformance of REA, reinforcing our positive view,” it added.

    And while rival Domain Holdings Australia Ltd (ASX: DHG) is also making out of cycle price increases in July, it isn’t enough for the broker to recommend it as a buy. Goldman has held firm with its neutral rating and lifted its price target to $5.05.

    All in all, although the REA Group share price has been on fire over the last 12 months, it could still have further to run according to this leading broker.

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  • 2 compelling ASX 200 shares that should be in your portfolio

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    There are a few really compelling shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO). They might be worth a spot in your portfolio.

    Shares in the ASX 200 might be large enough that they can get through rocky times, whilst also having good growth potential.

    These two could well be worth thinking about:

    Bapcor Ltd (ASX: BAP)

    Bapcor describes itself as the leading auto parts business in Australasia. It has over 1,000 locations across Australia, New Zealand and Thailand.

    The driving force of profit for the company is its Bapcor Trade business, which is predominately Burson. That’s the business that provides high quality service for mechanics. It has been generating pleasing same store sales growth for years. The earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin was 14.9% two years ago, it was up to 18.3% in the FY21 half-year result.

    Bapcor also has a large retail business called Autobarn. This is seeing strong growth during these unprecedented COVID-19 times.

    It also has a specialist wholesale division with multiple businesses, with some being industry leaders in their categories.

    There are a number of growth areas for the business. It’s growing its existing network footprint. The ASX 200 share is optimising its supply chain. Bapcor is investing in new and upgraded technology. A key part of future growth is that it’s expanding into Asia.

    One way it’s getting more exposure to Asia is an investment in Tye Soon. Bapcor now owns 25% of the Singapore-listed business. It’s the most prominent auto parts distributor in South East Asia and North East Asia. It operates 60 locations which, in FY19, generated SG$222 million of revenue.

    In a FY21 trading update for March 2021, the ASX 200 share said that business performance has continued at similar levels to the first six months. Trade same store sales went up 13%, Autobarn same store sales were up 35% and specialist revenue excluding acquisitions was up 17%.

    The fundamentals of the vehicle aftermarket remain strong, with an increase in second hand car sales, continued preference for cars over public transport and more domestic holidays where people use their cars.  

    EML Payments Ltd (ASX: EML)

    EML has a payment solutions platform that provides the technology to power the payment process so money can be moved quickly and securely. It connects its customers to their customers.

    It offers various products like virtual account numbers, gift cards, salary packaging, gaming payouts and so much more.

    One of the main segments of EML’s business is its general purpose reloadable (GPR). In FY21, it has become the largest and fastest growing segment. In the first half of FY21, more than 70% of deals won were in the GPR segment.

    The ASX 200 share recently entered the opening banking sector (through an acquisition) which enables consumers and businesses to share banking data and initiative real time payments securely between two accounts.

    The primary objective of open banking, according to EML, is to enable faster competition and innovation in banking and payments, improving the user experience for consumers and merchants.

    EML says that combining its account to account services and opening banking with existing prepaid and banking as a service capabilities expands the addressable market and deepens existing relationships.

    In FY21, EML is expecting revenue to grow by 45% to 56%, EBITDA to be up between 54% to 66% and underlying net profit to be up between 25% to 40% to a range of $30 million to $33.5 million.

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    Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends EML Payments. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Bapcor. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended EML Payments. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • LIVE COVERAGE: ASX to drop; iron ore pushes to 10-year high

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    Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Kate O’Brien owns shares of Apple and Rio Tinto Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Alphabet (A shares), Alphabet (C shares), and Apple. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet (A shares), Alphabet (C shares), and Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) share price on watch after Kmart update

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    The Wesfarmers Limited (ASX: WES) share price is one to watch this morning after an after-market update from the Aussie conglomerate.

    Why is the Wesfarmers share price on watch?

    Wesfarmers last night provided an update on its Kmart Group plans. Kmart is one of the three key retail brands under the Wesfarmers banner, alongside Target and Catch.com.au.

    The Aussie conglomerate is pushing to make Kmart a focal point of its brands. Key highlights cited by Wesfarmers include a large and growing addressable market, competitive advantages driven by scale and technology-enabled growth.

    The Wesfarmers share price will be one to watch this morning as investors take in the latest update and vision for the group’s retail arm.

    Kmart recorded $6.1 billion in annual sales through to 30 June 2020. That came from nearly 1 billion units sold in ~190 million transactions. The group’s online retail recorded more than 250 million website sessions during the year.

    The Wesfarmers share price has been performing strongly to start the year. That includes a 7.8% gain in 2021 compared to a 5.0% gain for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

    Kmart is focused on a few things to drive lower costs and higher margins. Those include lower production costs, lower price, higher volume and stronger sourcing and product development.

    The group is also expecting strong brand recognition and engagement to help drive sales. 10 years ago, the Kmart network had 187 stores across Australia and New Zealand. Now,  the company is hoping to have 271 Kmart stores with 57 “K Hubs” by December 2021.

    Wesfarmers is hoping the restructure of its retail arm can kickstart a new phase of growth. That makes the Wesfarmers share price worth watching in today’s trade.

    Foolish takeaway

    The Wesfarmers share price is on watch after the latest update on the Kmart transformation. Shares in the Aussie conglomerate are up 10 per cent in the last month in a positive start to the quarter.

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  • Is the Woolworths (ASX:WOW) share price in the buy zone?

    The Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) share price was out of form on Tuesday despite the release of an announcement.

    The retail conglomerate’s shares edged 1% lower to $41.63.

    What did Woolworths announce?

    On Tuesday Woolworths announced that it is investing $223 million to increase its stake in data science and advanced analytics business Quantium from 47% to 75%.

    Woolworths notes that the two parties have been working together closely since 2013 following an original investment of $20 million for a 50% stake.

    Since then, the partnership has enabled Woolworths and its supplier partners to make customer-first decisions across pricing, ranging, and promotions.

    What’s next?

    Following the completion of the transaction, Quantium will form part of Woolworths Group, and a new business unit called Q-Retail will be established.

    Q-Retail will bring together Quantium and Woolworths Group’s collective data science and advanced analytics capabilities with a focus on delivering against the company’s advanced analytics aspirations.

    Is the Woolworths share price in the buy zone?

    One leading broker that has responded positively to the news is Goldman Sachs.

    It commented: “The transaction is expected to complete prior to the end of the financial year. Upon completion, a new business unit Q-Retail is expected to be established focusing on advanced analytics for the Retail arms. No further details have been disclosed regarding the ambitions and objectives of this business unit, however we believe this will satisfy internal demands on data lead management as well as leveraging data IP through revenues to external parties.”

    “We view this investment as a strategically aligned development in view of the increasing importance for data analytics and digital retailing in the industry. We make no changes to our estimates pending completion of the transaction,” Goldman added.

    The broker has retained its buy rating and $43.60 price target on its shares. Based on the current Woolworths share price, this implies a potential total return of ~6.5% over the next 12 months including dividends.

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  • Top broker thinks Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) share price is good value

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    The Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) share price has been a positive performer in 2021.

    Since the start of the year, the conglomerate’s shares have risen approximately 8%.

    This leaves the Wesfarmers share price trading within a whisker of its record high of $56.40.

    Can the Wesfarmers share price keep on climbing?

    According to one leading broker, the Wesfarmers share price can still go higher from here.

    A note out of Goldman Sachs this morning reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating and $59.70 price target on the company’s shares.

    This price target implies potential upside of 6% for its shares over the next 12 months excluding dividends. If you include them, the potential return for investors stretches to just over 9%.

    What did Goldman Sachs say?

    Goldman Sachs notes that yesterday morning Wesfarmers released an update on its Kmart business.

    And while there was a muted response to it from the market, leading to the Wesfarmers share price edging lower, the broker saw positives in the release.

    Goldman commented: “Wesfarmers hosted an investor presentation focused on the Kmart business today. While there were no major strategic redirections or investments announced, it offered a reassurance of ongoing strategy implementation, maintaining industry leadership and an update of early signs of trading from converted Target stores.”

    Some key takeaways from the update that Goldman highlighted include:

    “Scale of sourcing and offer across Australia is seen as a key advantage that Kmart has vs. similar operators. Management believes that scale is likely to improve further as Target stores are converted across.”

    “The aspirational target first introduced in 2017 (A$10bn in sales, A$1bn in EBIT and 6 stock turns per annum) has been maintained, along with indications of addressable market opportunities across a range of categories.”

    “90% of the stores have been converted into the Plan C format which includes mobile fixtures and dynamic space allotment based on demand. These formats help Kmart evolve without need for significant refurbishments.”

    Overall, the broker was happy with the update and continues to see the Wesfarmers share price as good value at the current level.

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  • 2 ASX dividend shares with fully franked yields of almost 5%

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    With interest rates likely to remain at very low levels for some time to come, it looks like dividend shares will be the best place to generate a passive income for a while yet.

    But which ASX dividend shares should you look at? Here are two to consider:

    Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1)

    The first dividend share to look at is Accent. It is a footwear-focused retailer which owns a collection of popular store brands. These include HypeDC, Platypus, and The Athlete’s Foot.

    Accent has been growing at a consistently solid rate over the last few years. This strong form has been driven by new store brand launches, the expansion of its existing footprint, and growing demand in-store and online.

    Pleasingly, FY 2021 has been no different, with Accent on course to deliver a stellar profit result in August. During the first half, the company achieved a 6.6% increase in total sales to $541.3 million and a 57.3% increase in net profit after tax to $52.8 million.

    Bell Potter is confident on Accent’s outlook and has put a buy rating and $2.65 price target on its shares.

    The broker is also forecasting an 11.9 cents per share dividend in FY 2021. Based on the current Accent share price, this will mean a fully franked 4.7% yield.

    Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS)

    A second ASX dividend share to look at is Telstra. While the telco giant has been a disaster for income investors over the last five years, it finally appears to have turned a corner.

    This is thanks to its T22 strategy which is creating a much leaner business and one which is expected to return to growth as soon as next year.

    Telstra’s CEO, Andy Penn, explained: “I am confident the many initiatives we have taken under our T22 program, particularly in simplifying the business and the digitisation program, will further improve customer experience.”

    “To get the real benefits from all the effort we’ve already made, Telstra needs to be bold. I’ve set an aspiration for mid to high single-digit growth in underlying EBITDA in FY22 and $7.5 to $8.5 billion of underlying EBITDA in FY23. I am confident we can deliver this if we remain focused,” he added.

    Goldman Sachs is a fan and feels the Telstra share price is good value. It currently has a buy rating and $4.00 price target on its shares.

    The broker also believes that its dividend cuts are over and is forecasting a 16 cents per share dividend for the foreseeable future. Based on the latest Telstra share price, this represents a fully franked 4.7% dividend yield.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Telstra Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

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    On Tuesday the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) was out of form and sank lower. The benchmark index dropped 0.7% to 7,017.8 points.

    Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

    ASX 200 expected to sink

    It looks set to be a tough day of trade for the Australian share market on Wednesday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day a sizeable 78 points or 1.1% lower this morning. This follows a poor night of trade on Wall Street, which saw the Dow Jones fall 0.75%, the S&P 500 drop 0.7%, and the Nasdaq tumble 0.9%.

    Oil prices fall

    It could be a difficult day for energy producers such as Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Petroleum Limited (ASX: WPL) after oil prices pulled back. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 1.2% to US$62.61 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price has fallen 0.8% to US$66.50 a barrel. This decline was driven by demand concerns.

    BHP third quarter update

    The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price will be one to watch this morning when it hands in its third quarter update. Investors will be keen to see if the mining giant is on course to achieve its guidance for FY 2021. BHP is aiming for full year iron ore production of 245 – 255Mt, copper production of 1,510-1,645kt, and petroleum production of 95-102 MMboe.

    Gold price rises

    Gold miners Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) could be on the rise after the gold price pushed higher overnight. According to CNBC, the spot gold price is up 0.45% to US$1,778.80 an ounce. Demand for safe haven assets appears to have driven the precious metal higher.

    Trans-Tasman travel bubble concerns

    Travel shares such as Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) and Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB) will be on watch today amid concerns over the Trans-Tasman travel bubble. This follows news that a border worker in Auckland has tested positive for COVID-19 and is now quarantining.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

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    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

    *Returns as of February 15th 2021

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Webjet Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

    The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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