• Leading broker says Metcash (ASX:MTS) share price can climb materially higher

    The Metcash Limited (ASX: MTS) share price is rebounding on Wednesday after dropping lower yesterday.

    In morning trade, the wholesale distributor’s shares are up almost 3% to $3.48.

    Why is the Metcash share price pushing higher today?

    Today’s gain appears to have been driven by a positive reaction to its strategy update by analysts at Goldman Sachs.

    According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating and lifted its price target on Metcash’s shares to $4.03.

    Based on the current Metcash share price, this price target implies potential upside of almost 16% over the next 12 months. And if you include dividends, the potential return stretches to over 21%.

    What did Goldman say?

    Goldman was pleased with its strategy update and believes the market’s negative reaction to it yesterday was wrong. It explained:

    “MTS has delivered its latest strategy update, highlighting a shift in the company’s strategy to a growth footing but also flagging the business’ strong capital position by increasing its guidance for dividend payout ratio at the same time.”

    “The market’s first impression was taken negatively, likely due to a lack of capital management and the higher than expected capex program.”

    “However, there are a number of positives we think are important from this update: (a) management are increasingly confident in the underlying earnings stability of the divisions, (b) the positive demand profile for the housing sector is being addressed with an increased capex allocation to drive store growth in Hardware, (c) the newly acquired Total Tools acquisition is being positioned to take advantage of the strong demand profile from the housing cycle and growth of the format with a significant store expansion program and JV investment.”

    In addition to this, the broker was pleased to see the company revise its dividend policy favourably. It now has a payout ratio of 70%, up from 60% previously. Goldman feels this is a sign that management and the board have confidence in its prospects.

    All in all, with the Metcash share price trading at just 12x estimated FY 2021 earnings, the broker sees plenty of value in its shares today. This could make it one for investors to consider.

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  • Webjet (ASX:WEB) share price rises on bullish broker note

    Large airplane on tarmac

    The Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB) share price is on course to record a decent gain on Wednesday.

    In morning trade, the online travel agent’s shares are up 2% to $6.32.

    Why is the Webjet share price pushing higher?

    The catalyst for the strong gain by the Webjet share price today appears to be a broker note out of Goldman Sachs this morning.

    According to the note, the broker has initiated coverage on the company’s shares with a buy rating and $7.36 price target.

    Based on the Webjet share price at yesterday’s close, this price target implies potential upside of 21% over the next 12 months.

    Why is Goldman Sachs positive on Webjet?

    Goldman believes that Webjet is well-placed to benefit from the travel market recovery. It explained:

    “Webjet, the #2 bed bank globally and Australia’s leading domestic Online Travel Agent, looks well-placed to benefit from the travel recovery. Webjet’s OTA profitability was already one of the strongest among competitors prior to COVID-19 and we expect this to improve as activity levels return to normal. We believe bed bank players will take on increased importance as independent hotels compete amid the reduced demand.”

    “We forecast Webjet to post an EBITDA CAGR of +9.5% over FY19-24E. We believe its OTA business offers a balanced exposure to the domestic-led recovery and expect it will maintain a strong balance sheet. We initiate with a Buy and a 12-month TP of A$7.36, with potential upside of 21.1%.”

    Acquisition opportunities

    The broker also suspects that Webjet could be in a position to bolster its future growth with acquisitions once trading conditions return to normal. It said:

    “Webjet has said it has maintained its interest in looking for attractive acquisition opportunities that might arise, especially adjacent to the Bedbanks business. Taking the DOTW and JacTravel acquisitions as a point of reference, these businesses were priced at an average of 0.4x EV/TTV. We calculate headroom availability to the group for acquisitions as equal to the sum of cash balance and undrawn facilities, net of the minimum reserve requirement (A$125mn) — this was a total of c. A$258mn as at the end of December 2020.”

    “Based on the historical acquisition multiples, we estimate the group has enough capacity to acquire a business with TTV of up to A$650mn in the pre-pandemic scenario, representing c. 30% of FY19 TTV. That said, we think valuations could be more attractive in the current environment, implying potential for a sizeable acquisition if the right opportunity was to come by.”

    Valuation

    Goldman acknowledges that the Webjet share price looks overvalued based on its short-term earnings. However, it feels it is attractive on a normalised basis. It explained:

    “The absolute enterprise valuation is up 9.1% vs pre-pandemic times (using 21 Feb 2020, the pre-pandemic peak, as the reference period). On a relative valuation basis, WEB trades at a 143% premium to industrials ex financials, vs a pre-pandemic average of a 2% discount. However on a normalized forward earnings basis (FY24), WEB currently trades at 17.6x P/E.”

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  • Why the Lake Resources (ASX:LKE) share price is shooting 10% higher today

    jump in asx share price represented by man jumping in the air in celebration

    The Lake Resources N.L. (ASX: LKE) share price is on the move on Wednesday following the release of an update on its Kachi Lithium Brine Project.

    At the time of writing, the lithium producer’s shares are up over 10% to 38.5 cents.

    What did Lake Resources announce?

    This morning Lake Resources announced that it has refreshed its flagship Kachi Lithium Brine Project Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) based on revised lithium price estimates.

    According to the release, this has increased the project’s net present value (NPV) to US$1.6 billion (A$2.1 billion). This compares to its previous NPV estimate of US$748 million (A$1.18 billion). In addition to this, Lake is assessing a potential expansion to the production of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) from Kachi. 

    The release explains that the Kachi Lithium Brine PFS is now based on 25,500 tpa of lithium carbonate production with an average price of US$15,500 per tonne for high-purity battery grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia). This compares to its original estimate of US$11,000 per tonne.

    Management advised that it made the decision to lift its estimates following ongoing discussions with potential off-takers for high purity lithium carbonate and recent projections from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

    Lake’s Managing Director, Steve Promnitz, commented: “Updated lithium prices demonstrate just how financially robust the Kachi project is, which could potentially be enhanced with a production expansion. Significant new production is required to meet the forecast growth in demand from EVs and energy storage over the next 10 years.”

    “The Kachi project remains highly scalable and the Company is working towards an expansion which would make it globally significant in terms of high purity lithium carbonate production, and well-positioned to supply the expected deficit in battery grade product over the next few years.”

    “This is an important differentiator of Lake as it continues to engage with major participants in the battery materials supply chain and electric vehicle makers. These participants are seeking high purity product, that can be scaled up to meet demand and has a measurable ESG benefit. Lake ticks all those boxes,” he concluded.

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  • Why the 5G Networks (ASX:5GN) share price is storming 5% higher

    cloud shares

    The 5G Networks Ltd (ASX: 5GN) share price is on the move this morning after announcing a new acquisition.

    At the time of writing, the telecommunication carrier’s shares are up 5% to $1.30.

    What did 5G Networks announce?

    This morning 5G Networks announced an agreement to acquire 100% of leading dedicated cloud provider, Intergrid Group.

    According to the release, the two parties have agreed a purchase price of $3 million. This represents a 4x normalised EBITDA multiple. The purchase price comprises $2.5 million in cash and $0.5 million in 5G Networks shares. The cash consideration will be funded from its existing cash reserves.

    Synergies of $0.5 million per annum are expected to be realised in the first 12 months.

    What is Intergrid?

    Intergrid operates cloud hosting services within data centres strategically located in seven major cities across both Australia and New Zealand.

    The Intergrid network is connected to over 40 data centres, optimising speed and web content delivery by reaching most of the Australian population in under 20 milliseconds. It supports high-speed streaming to households, powers Ag-Tech Internet of Things devices on farms, supports critical government applications, and everything in between.

    The company currently generates annual revenue of $2.5 million and normalised EBITDA of $0.8 million.

    5G Networks Managing Director, Joe Demase, commented: “5GN are really excited to be working with Intergrid in growing our digital infrastructure capabilities. In a very short period they have developed a valuable customer base with many blue-chip ASX 200 and government customers who are committed to pursuing a cloud experience which is unique and world class.”

    “The capability for 5GN to now offer (Bare Metal) services at the edge, means that we can deliver dedicated cloud or hosting solutions pretty much to the front door of every major organisation in Australia. This enables content and application performances which are absolutely best in market.”

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  • Xero (ASX:XRO) share price down 23%, is it a buy?

    Technology

    The Xero Limited (ASX: XRO) share price has dropped 23% over the last three months, could it be worth a buy right now?

    What’s happened to the Xero share price recently?

    Well, the Xero share price did end up 4% higher yesterday. Plus, it has had a strong performance during COVID-19 – the share price has gone up 59% over the last year (with the starting point a year ago not quite being the bottom of the COVID-19 crash).

    However, plenty of ASX growth shares have seen their share prices decline during 2021. Other names to fall include Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) and CSL Limited (ASX: CSL).

    Some brokers don’t think that the Xero share price is going to perform well over the next 12 months.

    Broker Morgan Stanley has a share price target of $100 for Xero – this suggests it could fall 15% over the next year.

    UBS has an even worse outlook for Xero shares, with a price target of $79.50. That means the broker believes it could drop by around a third over the next year, despite the large decrease already.

    An acquisition

    Xero recently made an acquisition called Planday. A workforce management platform with more than 350,000 employee users across Europe and the UK that simplifies employee scheduling, allowing businesses to forecast and manage their labour costs.

    Not only will Xero be able to diversify its global revenue further, but the acquisition will allow Xero to strengthen its offering to clients and potentially cross-sell services. Xero will then take Planday’s offering into other markets where Xero operates, supporting Xero’s long-term growth plans.

    This acquisition will cost €155.7 million and have a “modest” negative impact on Xero’s FY22 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) according to management.

    Is the Xero share price a buy?

    There is no doubt that the market thinks Xero is a quality business. It’s why it has a $16.6 billion market capitalisation, according to the ASX.

    In the FY21 half-year result, it reported a number of growth metrics. It said that total subscribers grew by 19% to 2.45 million, annualised monthly recurring revenue grew by 15% to NZ$877.5 million. The gross profit margin improved from 85.2% in the prior year, to 85.7%. It generated NZ$120.7 million of EBITDA (up 86%), it made NZ$34.5 million of net profit after tax (NPAT) and NZ$54.3 million of free cash flow.

    But no business is a buy at any price. UBS and Morgan Stanley don’t think the Xero share price will do very well over the next year.

    Brokers like Citi think that there are question marks over the business when government support comes to a stop – it doesn’t think Xero is an obvious buy despite all of its qualities.

    But Xero says that it’s positive on the outlook, saying:

    Xero is a long-term orientated business with ambitions for high-growth. We continue to operate with disciplined cost management and targeted allocation of capital. This allows us to remain agile so we can continue to innovate, invest in new products and customer growth, and respond to opportunities and changes in our operation environment.

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  • GameStop and AMC are riding the stock market roller coaster again

    This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

    volatile asx share price represented by investors riding a roller coaster

    This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

    Wall Street got off to a generally good start on Tuesday morning, as market participants seemed comfortable with the slow but steady pace of economic recovery. Although the latest data on retail sales was somewhat disappointing, investors like that a sluggish economy is likely to make the Federal Reserve keep interest rates low for longer. As of 10:30 a.m. EDT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) had moved lower by 70 points to 32,884, backing off from its record close on Monday. However, the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) had pushed further into all-time high ground with a 10-point rise to 3,979, and the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQ: .IXIC) had risen 116 points to 13,575.

    Many investors have focused their efforts on a very narrow part of the stock market, drilling down on companies that have become extremely popular among short-term traders. Stocks like GameStop Corp (NYSE: GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE: AMC) have gone from relative obscurity to the Wall Street spotlight. Yet as today’s big moves lower for these two stocks show, it’s extremely dangerous to speculate in high-profile stocks. As quickly as they move higher, they can give up those gains and leave traders with big losses.

    Losing the game

    Shares of GameStop were down more than 20% at 10:30 a.m. EDT Tuesday morning. The downward move took the video game retailer stock’s losses since its best levels less than a week ago to more than 50%.

    The biggest problem with investing in a stock that’s a favorite among traders is that the reasons for any given day’s rise or fall often has little to do with the company itself. In GameStop’s case, one commonly cited expectation coming into this week was that investors flush with cash from the latest economic stimulus measure in Washington would buy more shares of the video game specialist. That would’ve been visible as a big bump in trading volume, but Monday’s volume figures were subdued at best as the stock fell from $265 per share to $220. This morning’s further decline took the stock to around $175 per share.

    Even with the fall, though, GameStop shares remain at more than triple their worst levels in mid-February following the stock’s initial rise and fall. Short-squeeze dynamics were primarily responsible for that first cycle up and down, but bullish shareholders pointed to news that Chewy Inc (NYSE: CHWY) co-founder Ryan Cohen was working more closely with GameStop to further its plans for a technological transformation.

    Investors need to understand that Cohen’s efforts will take time to bear fruit. In the meantime, volatile day-to-day swings promise to take GameStop shares on a wild ride — and there could be plenty more ups and downs as traders fight with one another for supremacy.

    AMC wants a Hollywood ending

    Elsewhere, AMC Entertainment Holdings saw its stock pull back almost 10% on Tuesday morning. That still left the shares above where they’d started the week, with Monday’s 26% rise outweighing the downward pressure today.

    AMC’s latest surge has come amid good news for the movie theater operator, as it has taken advantage of new rules in California to reopen theaters in key areas like Los Angeles. Already, popular theaters in Burbank and Century City are open to limited audiences, and if local officials concur, AMC will have all of its more than four dozen locations across the Golden State open by the end of this week.

    Yet while traders focus on the likelihood that AMC will in fact make it through the pandemic without having to seek bankruptcy protection, many Wall Street analysts point to a cloudier long-term view. Moreover, given that AMC had to take on a lot of debt to survive, shareholders won’t participate fully in any ensuing recovery in its business. That has some analysts calling for a plunge of 80% or more for AMC stock.

    Don’t get distracted

    It’s tempting to try to trade fast-moving stocks to score quick profits. But more often than not, traders find themselves getting burned in the inevitable downdrafts that follow big upward moves. Even long-term investors with bullish views must be wary of investing in AMC and GameStop in light of the disruptive trading activity that’s dominating these two stocks right now.

    This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

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  • LIVE COVERAGE: ASX to open lower; oil slides again

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  • 2 ASX investing strategies for those paying off a mortgage

    mortgage broker

    Are you wondering if you should pay off your mortgage before investing your spare cash in the ASX? You’ve come to the right place.

    If you’re a homeowner, congratulations. You’re already a proactive investor. 

    Many experts advise to diversify your investment portfolio as much as possible. Investing in shares may offer some protection if the residential property market reduces in value.

    If you’ve already committed to your property investment and you’re comfortable not immediately paying off your mortgage, maybe the share market is your next mountain.

    What ASX investment strategies might work best for people paying down a mortgage?

    It’s incredibly important that you take a personal approach to investing. Your individual situation must be considered before taking action and this article only contains general advice.

    With that in mind, here are 2 ASX investment strategies that could be attractive to those with a mortgage.

    Rather than paying extra off of your mortgage, put that cash towards accumulating compound interest

    This strategy can be a relatively safe bet for simple, low-maintenance investing. This approach works because of compounding interest rates. If you’re staring at your screen blankly, check out this breakdown of investing in shares versus paying down a mortgage.

    Now, obviously, compound interest only works if the market is going up more often than it’s going down, and that’s never guaranteed. Compounding interest takes time and consistency. Although, if you’re already the holder of a mortgage, you’re probably well versed in the realities of long-term financial commitments.

    Investing in dividend-paying shares

    If you’re after a more immediate reward, perhaps dividend-paying shares could be your answer. Dividends are a portion of a company’s profits that shareholders are entitled to. Most companies pay their shareholders a dividend every 6 or 12 months, but they can pay more or less regularly. In fact, they don’t have to pay at all. Further, the amount that reaches your bank account from your dividend shares is likely to be unstable as it reflects a company’s profits and whims.

    With that in mind, some investors might find dividends could be a good way to offset a proportion of their mortgage repayments. Or maybe to earn some spending money, especially if most of your disposable income currently goes towards house repayments.

    Here’s what you need to know before investing in the ASX

    Firstly, investing in shares is risky. Even the most stable company, with a perfect record of past performance, can see volatility in its share price for a number of reasons.

    Don’t let that scare you though. As today’s low-interest rates and rising bond prices have made cash savings accounts and bonds less prosperous than they used to be, investing in the share market might be worth considering.

    Secondly, make sure you’ve paid off any high-interest debt before investing in the share market. Compounding interest works the same in reverse — don’t let any success you may find on the ASX be depleted by debt.  

    Finally, make sure you have a few months’ expenses left in the bank after you put your savings into any investment. You don’t want to find yourself in the position of not being able to support yourself if your income stream stalls.

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  • How I’d aim to generate a growing passive income from dividend shares

    asx share price dividend payments represented by man holding $50 note close to his face

    Generating a growing passive income from dividend shares is a realistic goal for most investors.

    Buying companies that have affordable dividend payouts as a proportion of profit could indicate they have the scope to raise shareholder payments. Similarly, stocks with impressive profit forecasts may be able to raise their dividends at a relatively fast pace.

    Through buying a diverse range of such companies, it could be possible to build a strong income portfolio in a low-interest-rate environment.

    Buying shares with low payout ratios

    A company’s dividend payout ratio can provide guidance on its passive income prospects. The ratio is calculated by dividing dividends paid in the most recent financial year by net profit from the same year. The result is a percentage figure. A figure below 100% shows that the company had headroom when making its most recent dividend payments out of net profit.

    Clearly, company profitability can change – especially in the current economic environment. However, businesses with low payout ratios may find it easier to grow their dividends at a fast pace than those companies that have higher payout ratios. They may be less reliant on rising profits to fund dividend growth. As such, they could be a more promising means of obtaining a rising passive income in the coming years.

    Earnings growth can catalyse a company’s passive income

    Companies that have attractive earnings growth prospects may also offer a higher chance of providing a rising passive income. For example, two companies with the same payout ratios may have very different financial outlooks due to industry conditions and their strategies. The stock with a more upbeat operating outlook may find it easier to raise dividends without compromising the affordability of its shareholder payouts.

    Of course, assessing the profit potential of any business is a known unknown. It’s especially difficult at the present time to judge whether a company has the scope to raise profitability. However, by focusing on the track record of profit growth for a specific stock versus its peers, it may be possible to deduce whether it has a competitive advantage. This may indicate that it is able to offer more resilient sales growth, higher margins and a rising passive income in the long run.

    Buying dividend shares today

    The uncertain economic outlook makes it more important than ever to diversify among a range of dividend shares when seeking to make a passive income. Otherwise, an investor may be too reliant on a small number of holdings for their income.

    Even after the stock market’s rally since the 2020 stock market crash, a number of companies appear to be trading on low valuations given their long-term dividend prospects. As such, there seem to be opportunities to build a diverse income portfolio that can provide strong growth in a low-interest-rate environment.

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  • The Core Lithium (ASX:CXO) share price is up 21% in just one week

    child in a superman outfit indicating a surge in share price

    The Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) share price has been a very strong performer in recent trading sessions.

    In fact, since this time last week, the lithium company’s shares have rallied an impressive 21%.

    This means the Core Lithium share price is now up a remarkable 1,000% over the last 12 months.

    Why is the Core Lithium share price racing higher this week?

    Investors have been scrambling to buy Core Lithium shares this week following a rise in lithium prices to two-year highs and the release of a positive announcement.

    In respect to the latter, on Monday the company revealed that its Finniss Lithium Project near Darwin has been awarded Major Project Status (MPS) by the Hon Karen Andrews MP.

    According to the release, MPS is the Federal Government’s recognition of the strategic significance of a project to Australia. It provides companies with extra support from the Major Projects Facilitation Agency. This includes a single-entry point for Australian Government approvals, project support, and coordination with state and territory approvals.

    Management believes the award of MPS, which carries a three-year period, represents yet another major milestone in its path towards bringing this world-class lithium project into production.

    What’s next?

    There are a number of potential catalysts on the horizon that could make or break the Core Lithium share price.

    The main one is of course the updated Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) on the Lithium Project, which is due in the first half of 2021. Once that is complete, the company will make its final investment decision on the project.

    If all goes to plan, Core Lithium is on track to commence construction at the Finniss Project before the end of the year.

    Core Lithium’s Managing Director, Stephen Biggins, commented: “The award of Major Project Status for our flagship Finniss Lithium Project is another major milestone for both the company and the Federal Government, as we strive to enter the construction phase in 2021, subject to a Final Investment Decision.”

    “When in production, the Finniss Lithium Project will be the first Australian lithium-producing mine outside of Western Australia, with our proximity to Darwin Port – the country’s nearest port to Asia – serving as a direct route for our lithium to be processed and delivered to end users worldwide.”

    “This opens up a pathway for a critical minerals hub to be established in Northern Australia, along with the potential for significant associated local modern manufacturing opportunities.”

    Given the potential of the project, it isn’t at all surprising to see the Core Lithium share price flying high this week. Shareholders will no doubt be hoping for more of the same in the coming months as things progress.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

    The post The Core Lithium (ASX:CXO) share price is up 21% in just one week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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