• Why is the Aldoro (ASX:ARN) share price rising today?

    mining asx shares represented by miner writing report on clipboard

    The Aldoro Resources Ltd (ASX: ARN) share price is rising today after the miner completed its Fixed-Loop Electromagnetic (FLTEM) surveys at Narndee, confirming more bedrock conductors.

    The Aldoro share price is up 4.48% to 35 cents per share.

    Aldoro is an exploration company established to explore and develop gold and nickel mineral properties. Its projects include Ryans Find, Kalgarin, Cathedrals and Leinster, and other mineral projects, including Narndee. 

    What Aldoro’s market update said

    Aldoro’s FLTEM survey has been completed, with data being processed for its final report, which is expected in mid-April. Investors are getting in early, though, sending the Aldoro share price rising today.

    Two high confidence walk-up, drill-ready targets have been confirmed, with another target confirmed as a very discrete bedrock conductor. 

    The explorer will now conduct Moving Loop Electromagnetic (MLTEM) surveying over high-priority targets coincident with topographic highs to attain a clearer result. A site visit is also planned for field mapping (identifying gossans) and follow-up geochemical surveys.

    Several of Aldoro’s targets are situated on pronounced bedrock highs, leading to some anomalous results.

    The latter target produced a bedrock conductor near the surface for this broad anomaly, which was interpreted as clays/weathered materials.

    A site visit and mapping and sampling exercise of these topographical highs will determine the degree of weathering to establish the presence, if any, of clays that may have led to spurious FLTEM readings.

    Aldoro share price snapshot

    Aldoro has a very small market capitalisation of just $24 million, and the Aldoro share price has been volatile. However, it’s still risen overall from just 8 cents in November last year to its current high.

    It previously reached 33 cents in February this year but had crashed down to 19 cents by March, explaining the company’s cautious approach when it comes to anomalous findings in Narndee.

    The Aldoro share price is also up 191.6% over the past 12 months, beating the basic materials sector. 

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  • Is the Bank of Queensland (ASX:BOQ) share price in the buy zone ahead of its results?

    A teacher in front of a classroom chalkboard filled with questionmarks, indicating share market uncertainty

    The Bank of Queensland Limited (ASX: BOQ) share price will be one to watch closely this week.

    The regional bank is due to hand in its eagerly anticipated half year results on Thursday morning.

    What is the market expecting from Bank of Queensland?

    The market is expecting a strong half year result from Bank of Queensland. This is particularly the case given solid updates from some of the big four banks earlier this year.

    According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts are expecting the bank to report cash earnings of $164 million. This will be an increase of 9% over the prior corresponding period.

    The broker expects this to allow the Bank of Queensland board to declare a fully franked interim dividend of 17 cents per share.

    Based on the current Bank of Queensland share price of $8.93, this implies a 3.8% dividend yield if you annualise it.

    What else did Goldman say?

    Goldman Sachs is expecting a higher net interest margin (NIM) and sees upside risk to the metric.

    It commented: “BOQ management expects NIM to be up c.3bps on 2H20 and slightly positive overall in FY21. This is consistent with what we currently forecast.”

    “In addition to this, we see potential for near term funding cost tailwinds given the current level of deposit repricing already announced (with room for further repricing) and BOQ’s ability to drawdown on its remaining allotment of Term Funding Facility (TFF),” it added.

    The broker is also expecting Bank of Queensland to deliver above system lending during the half.

    It explained: “Housing loan growth should be above system with BOQ expecting 1H21 annualised housing loan growth of 5%, and slightly negative to flat business loan growth (GSe FY21E: BOQ housing +6.5% vs. system at +4.0% and BOQ business +0.6% vs. system at +1.6%). We will be interested in management commentary around the sustainability of this better than system growth.”

    And finally, Goldman Sachs is forecasting low bad debts and sees potential for a reversal in impairments. This follows reversals by Australia and New Zealand Banking GrpLtd (ASX: ANZ) and Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC).

    It said: “Our current forecast for 1H21E BDDs is at 10bp of total loans, consistent with what BOQ pre-announced. In light of the continued improvement in asset quality, coupled with recent industry trends (ANZ and WBC reported 1Q21 BDD contributions of A$150 mn and A$501 mn respectively), we will be particularly interested on whether BOQ follows this trend, or whether it takes a more conservative approach given the recent roll off of government support packages.”

    Is the Bank of Queensland share price in the buy zone?

    Although the Bank of Queensland share price is up 19% so far in 2021, partly due to excitement around its acquisition of ME Bank, the broker still sees value in it.

    According to the note, its analysts have a buy rating and $9.68 price target on its shares. Based on the current Bank of Queensland share price, this implies potential upside of almost 8.5% excluding dividends. If you include them, the potential return stretches to over 12%.

    This could make it worth considering if you don’t already have exposure to the sector.

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  • Why the Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA) share price could soar 15%

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    The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price is trending higher in early afternoon trade, up 0.42%.

    But this could be just the tip of the share-price-gains iceberg for CBA and the rest of the big four banks over the coming six months.

    Could the banking giant’s value surge over the next 6 months?

    The Commonwealth Bank share price is in the spotlight today, along with the wider ASX banking sector.

    This comes following a price forecast from David Cassidy, head of Australian equity strategy at Wilsons Advisory. Cassidy forecasts that the ASX banks could see significant more share price upside over the coming six months as investors continue to rotate into beaten-down value shares.

    As the Australian Financial Review reports, Cassidy believes that, if this scenario remains in play, bank shares could gain 15% from their current levels, for a 20% annual gain.

    Atop the rapid economic recovery underway in Australia, which should lead to earnings upgrades and higher dividend yields, Cassidy believes banks have “over-provided for the risks of COVID-19” and that “these provisions will likely be wound back in the next year”.

    Although Wilsons is “avoiding Commonwealth Bank of Australia on relative valuation grounds”, Cassidy is bullish on the banking sector, saying:

    The worst is behind the banks from a regulatory perspective… We believe there is still more runway for the banks, with an improved economic and regulatory backdrop than pre-COVID-19.

    Cassidy added, “Over the next 6 months, investors will be asking more from bank management teams around strategic initiatives to grow earnings in a post-COVID-19, post-royal commission environment.”

    Commonwealth Bank share price snapshot

    The Commonwealth Bank share price is up by around 38% over the past 12 months, outpacing the 27% gain posted by the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

    Year to date, CBA shares have gained around 4%. The ASX 200 listed bank pays a dividend yield of 2.9%, fully franked.

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  • Why the Smartpay (ASX:SMP) share price is up 30% in 2021

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    The Smartpay Holdings Ltd (ASX: SMP) share price is not having a great day today. At the time of writing, Smartpay shares are down 1.14% to 87 cents a share.

    On the surface, that move doesn’t look great for Smartpay shares. But if we zoom out, the picture gets a whole lot rosier. Smartpay shares are still up almost 30% year to date. They are also up more than 97% over the past 12 months. And with a 52-week range of 28-98 cents per share, Smartpay is definitely still in the upper echelons of this range. 

    So what has gone so well for this payments company over the past 3-and-a-half months?

    Smartpay share price pays off

    Well, there hasn’t been too much to talk about with Smartpay in recent months. We haven’t had any meaningful announcements of consequence for the company since 12 March. And that was a notice from S&P Global that Smartpay would be joining the S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX), effective 22 March. This does have the potential to be a growth catalyst for the Smartpay share price, seeing as ASX tech shares are an area that is attracting more and more attention these days. The ASX exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the XTX Index the BetaShares S&P/ASX Australian Technology ETF (ASX: ATEC) is an increasingly popular ETF that now has more than $200 million in net assets. It has also appreciated more than 83% over the past 12 months, which doesn’t hurt either.

    Remember, part of every dollar that gets invested with this ETF goes into Smartpay shares. So that’s certainly a tailwind for the Smartpay share price.

    But we could still be seeing the aftershocks of a very well-received quarterly trading update that the company released back in January. As we reported at the time, this trading update saw the Smartpay share price reach its current 52-week (and all-time) high soon after. 

    And for good reason. The update told investors that revenues were up 18% quarter-on-quarter and 24% over the prior corresponding quarter to NZ$9.2 million. Perhaps most impressively, Australian revenues grew 35% over the previous quarter’s numbers, and 75% against the prior corresponding quarter. 

    Those are objectively strong numbers and have almost certainly done the lion’s share of the legwork when it comes to the Smartpay shares’ 2021 performance thus far. 

    Those factors are likely to be behind the Smartpay share price’s 28% gain in 2021 so far. At the current share price, Smartpay has a market capitalisation of $204.25 million.

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  • Could this business update drive the Tesserent (ASX:TNT) share price higher?

    A hand outstretched with questionmarks floating above it, indicating uncertainty about a ahreprice

    As a leading cybersecurity stock, the recent Tesserent Ltd (ASX: TNT) share price performance has been far from inspiring. Its shares are down 33% year-to-date and almost 50% from its all-time record high of 44 cents. 

    What might drive the Tesserent share price today 

    On Tuesday, Tesserent announced that it will be expanding its business to make strategic investments in proprietary IP-based products and companies, and launching a cyber academy to address the industry’s skill shortages. 

    Investors can view the new organisational structure as three separate business divisions. 

    Firstly, Tesserent Cyber represents the ‘old’ Tesserent and its existing and core consulting, product and services business. 

    Tesserent Innovation is a new division focusing on developing and investing in new cyber technologies. The objective of Tesserent Innovation is to enable high growth potential cyber IP businesses to leverage the company’s existing customer base, deep skill sets, geographic coverage, and funding ability. 

    Finally, Tesserent is launching the Academy to help drive an industry-wide capability uplift and reduce the skill shortage gap.

    Besides the new business divisions, the business update did not contain any market sensitive news or financial updates. 

    Tesserent reiterates its growth narrative and future focus 

    The update reiterates the company’s narrative of exponential growth. In addition, it also reaffirmed its ambition of a $150 million turnover run rate by 30 June 2021. 

    The company has taken significant strides towards profitability, from a negative earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $1.7 million and $679,000 in 2Q20 and 3Q20, to $405,000 and $1.4 million in 1Q21 and 2Q21. 

    In addition to Tesserent Innovation and Academy, the company said that it will continue to drive its acquisition strategy. The intention of this is to expand on Tesserent Cyber’s capabilities and market share. This will translate to increasing shareholder value through incremental earnings growth.

    While the announcement sounds very positive for the Tesserent business moving forward, its share price is still down some 30% for the year. 

    The Tesserent share price opened 6% higher to 25 cents on Tuesday. However, it still needs to rise another 35% to breakeven for the year. 

     

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  • Big brokers think these 5 ASX shares can outperform the market

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    Big brokers have run the ruler on ASX shares that could beat the market. Here are the ones that have been rated as a buy or buy equivalent on Tuesday.

    ASX shares that could outperform the market 

    3P Learning Ltd (ASX: 3PL) 

    3P Learning announced on Monday that it will acquire 100% of Blake eLearning to emerge as a leading educational technology platform. 

    Morgan Stanley views this as a positive transaction in terms of scale, product mix, customer mix and potential for meaningful revenue and cost synergies. 

    The broker’s commentary does note some slight caution towards Blake eLearning, which seems to be cycling a period of accelerated COVID-19 sign-up. This could result in a higher churn rate and flatter growth in the near term. 

    Morgan Stanley maintained its overweight rating and increased its target price from $1.50 to $1.60. 3P Learning shares are currently trading at $1.30. 

    Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL) 

    Aristocrat Leisure has arguably received the most broker updates of all ASX shares this month. This includes updates from April 7, April 9 and April 13. The big broker narrative typically highlights a bounce back in its core casino machines business and acceleration in its digital gaming revenues. 

    On Tuesday, Credit Suisse points out that Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) was named the defendant in six lawsuits filed in United States federal courts alleging casino-style app games that allow users to purchase virtual coins, and pay money to win more playing time, constitutes unlawful gambling in certain US states.

    The broker believes that Apple may have to restrict or alter its distribution of mobile gambling games. 

    Overall, Credit Suisse remains bullish on Aristocrat shares, retaining an outperform rating and $38.00 target price. The Aristocrat share price is currently fetching $36.14, within arm’s reach of its all-time record high of $38.00. 

    BlueScope Steel Limited (ASX: BSL) 

    Macquarie upgraded its earnings estimates in the second half to $919.4 million. The broker believes a rally in steel prices have been underpinned by favourable market dynamics including a consolidating global steel industry, high utilisation and strong demand. 

    Macquarie’s commentary notes that there are risks associated with a potential rollover of steel prices, but believes strong earnings momentum can continue in the near term.

    An outperform rating was retained and target price raised from $21.65 to $23.50. BlueScope shares are currently trading at $20.30. 

    Mach7 Technologies Ltd (ASX: M7T) 

    The Mach7 share price jumped as much as 14% yesterday after the company announced record quarterly results. After assessing the third-quarter results, Morgan Stanley was pleased with its $12.8 million in new sales orders for the quarter from both new and existing customers. This represents a significant uplift from the $7.6 million in the second quarter. 

    The broker made no changes to its forecasts, retaining an add rating with a $1.68 target price. Mach7 shares have retreated 2.55% on Tuesday to $1.34. 

    Mineral Resources Limited (ASX: MIN) 

    Macquarie upgraded a number of ASX lithium shares on Tuesday including heavyweights Galaxy Resources Limited (ASX: GXY), Orocobre Ltd (ASX: ORE) and Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS)

    The broker lifted its lithium price outlook and expects Mineral Resources’ to begin producing lithium hydroxide in FY22. Macquarie believes that buoyant iron ore prices will support Mineral Resources in the near term while its entry into lithium production will drive medium to long term value. 

    Macquarie rates Mineral Resources as outperform and lifted its target price from $50 to $61. Mineral Resources shares are currently trading at $40.85. 

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    Kerry Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends MACH7 FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended MACH7 FPO. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • What’s with the Crown (ASX:CWN) share price today?

    volatile as share price represented by scared looking people on roller coaster

    The Crown Resorts Ltd (ASX: CWN) share price is everywhere today. The wild movement comes as the casino operator provided an update on the Blackstone takeover bid.

    At the time of writing, shares in the company are trading at $12.10 – up 0.08%. However, Crown shares opened 0.74% lower at $12.00, before briefly rising to $12.13. The Crown share price closed yesterday at $12.09.

    By comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 0.09% so far today.

    Let’s take a closer look at today’s announcement.

    What’s going on with the Crown share price?

    The Crown share price is all over the show during Tuesday’s session. In a statement to the ASX, Crown says Blackstone has updated the conditions under which it will buy 100% of Crown Resorts.

    On top of the already stated conditions, Blackstone now wishes for the following to occur:

    1. Blackstone to receive approval from all relevant state and territory governments to takeover Crown.
    2. Crown’s Victorian or West Australian gaming licenses to still be valid, and not under threat of being cancelled. As well, New South Wales must grant Crown a gaming licence or not threaten to withhold it.
    3. Any of the mentioned licenses not having, or soon to have, terms or conditions that will have a material impact on the financial position of operations.
    4. That the Royal Commissions into Crown, which are occurring in Victoria or WA, do not recommend either of points 2 or 3.

    Additionally, Crown says Blackstone will not be relying on debt financing to complete the takeover.

    Background to Crown’s woes

    The NSW Independent Liquor and Gaming Authority (ILGA) found Crown unsuitable to hold a gaming license in the state earlier this year. This was swiftly followed by a slew of resignations, including the CEO and several directors, and then the aforementioned Royal Commissions into Crown’s operations in two states.

    According to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), the WA royal commission will examine gaming regulations in the state – not just Crown’s operations on the west coast.

    Crown share price snapshot

    The Crown share price is up by more than 45% over the past 12 months. However, the company’s value has been aided by two important factors. First, one year ago was the midst of the COVID-19 financial collapse, which hit hospitality especially hard. Second, the crown share price shot up 18% when Blackstone submitted its bid to buy out shareholders.

    Crown has a market capitalisation of around $8.2 billion.

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  • Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to sell today

    Model bear in front of falling line graph, cheap stocks, cheap ASX shares

    On Monday I looked at three ASX shares that brokers have given buy ratings to this week.

    Unfortunately, not all shares are in favour with them right now. Three that have just been given sell ratings are listed below. Here’s why these brokers are bearish on these ASX shares:

    Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG)

    According to a note out of Citi, its analysts have retained their sell rating and $125.00 price target on this investment bank’s shares. Citi appears to believe that Macquarie’s shares are expensive at the current level. Particularly given its belief that the company will be forced to forecast a decline in earnings in FY 2022. This is due to a number of events that have occurred in FY 2021 that are highly unlikely to repeat again next year. The Macquarie share price is trading at $154.50 this afternoon.

    Magellan Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MFG)

    Analysts at Goldman Sachs have retained their sell rating and $45.56 price target on this fund manager’s shares. This follows the release of Magellan’s latest funds under management (FUM) update for the month of March. According to the note, the broker continues to see Magellan as expensive in light of the recent deterioration in its performance and the associated risks to revenues. The Magellan share price is fetching $48.60 on Tuesday afternoon.

    Platinum Asset Management Ltd (ASX: PTM)

    A note out of Credit Suisse reveals that its analysts have downgraded this fund manager’s shares to an underperform rating with a $4.65 price target. This follows the release of its FUM update after the market close on Friday. Credit Suisse notes that Platinum reported a 1.4% decline in FUM during the month. It appears concerned that this trend could continue, especially given disruption in the platform industry, which it feels could have a major impact on Platinum’s performance. The Platinum share price is trading at $4.84 today.

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  • Why focus could soon shift to dividend upgrades for the Telstra (ASX:TLS) share price

    Telstra dividend upgrade best asx share price dividend growth represented by fingers walking along growing piles of coins upgrade

    It sounds preposterous, but investors could soon be asking if a dividend upgrade is in the wings for the Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS) share price.

    It was only as recent as the February reporting season when the market was bracing for a dividend cut from our largest telco.

    There was a palpable sense of relief when Telstra didn’t cut its interim dividend any further. It paid a 5-cents a share regular dividend and topped it up with a 3-cents a share payment, just as it did in 2020.

    Telstra’s profit and dividend outlook improving

    But two months is a long time on the ASX. The multiple headwinds that forced Telstra to lower its dividend in 2018 appear to be abating.

    This prompted UBS to speculate if the telco could be flushed with excess cash over the medium term.

    There are a few bright spots that support this bullish thesis. The intense competition for mobile subscribers appears to be easing. We aren’t seeing the same widespread price cuts on mobile plans as before.

    NBN and other new opportunities

    Secondly, the earnings threat from the NBN has also passed what I call “peak pain”. UBS also pointed out that cost pressures from migrating customers to the NBN is easing.

    Throw in the recovery from COVID-19 disruptions, opportunities from 5G and NBN-alternative service offerings and cost reduction programs, and you have a more bullish outlook for cash flow.

    These drivers aren’t unique to the Telstra share price of course. The TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPG) share price is also well placed to benefit.

    Improving cash flows and dividends payouts

    “We take this a step further and investigate the cash flow profiles for TLS & TPG over the medium term,” added UBS.

    “Following spectrum auctions this year & investments in 5G network upgrades over the next ~2 years, we see potentially ~6 years of sustained FCFs [free cash flows] that are significantly above earnings from FY23E in the absence of growth investment opportunities.”

    Based on the broker’s estimates, Telstra could be sitting on a circa $5 billion cash pile. Meanwhile, TPG could have around $3 billion, of which a third is derived from its tax asset.

    Why Telstra’s dividend may not increase for years

    But this does not necessarily mean Telstra is about to lift its dividend. UBS thinks it’s a bad idea for Telstra to link its dividend to FCFs.

    This is because there is uncertainty over how much Telstra will need to pay for spectrum in the coming years. Telstra is also unlikely to have sufficient franking credits to cover a material increase in dividends.

    However, Telstra could use the excess cash on other capital management initiatives, like share buybacks.

    TPG’s dividends set to grow

    UBS is forecasting Telstra’s dividend to remain steady at 16 cents a share till FY25, when this is increased to 17 cents.

    If you want a dividend upgrade sooner, you might have to choose the TPG share price. UBS believes TPG will increase its full year payout to 17.5 cents this financial year from the 7.5 cents it paid in FY20.

    UBS is recommending both ASX shares as “buy” but prefers TPG.

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  • The Marley Spoon (ASX:MMM) share price is up 686% since the beginning of 2020

    upward trending arrow made from fireworks display

    Savvy investors who picked up shares in online meal kit delivery Marley Spoon AG (ASX: MMM) would be laughing all the way to the bank right now. Since the beginning of 2020, Marley Spoon shares have gained a whopping 686%. Surging from just $0.35 to the current price of $2.78 in under 18 months. At one point in August of last year, they even touched an all-time high price of $3.80.

    What was behind the share price gains?

    Marley Spoon was uniquely suited to meet the demands created by lockdowns and pandemic anxiety. The company is essentially a grocery delivery service with a twist. Customers can log on to Marley Spoon’s online platform and select from a list of meal options each week. Marley Spoon then delivers a box containing the recipes and pre-portioned ingredients required to cook them. The company aims to cut down on food waste while promoting healthy eating and home cooking.

    When government-imposed lockdowns confined people to their homes and forced restaurants to close, Marley Spoon saw a rapid rise in new customers. The Berlin-based company operates in many geographies that had major COVID-19 outbreaks and strict lockdowns in 2020. This included parts of Europe and North America. A company that delivered fresh ingredients right to your doorstep seemed like a much better alternative to anxiety-inducing trips to the supermarket during a global pandemic.

    Recent financials

    Marley Spoon recently released its results for the 12 months ended 31 December 2020, in which it reported a huge surge in revenues. The company’s net revenue doubled in 2020 (to EU$254 million), driven by an 83% year-on-year increase in active subscribers.

    The US geography led the charge. Net revenues there jumping 133% year-on-year on a constant currency basis to EU$127 million. It now makes up the bulk of Marley Spoon’s total net revenues. With EU$86 million generated in Australia and EU$41 million in Europe.

    Operating earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation expenses (EBITDA) also increased markedly year-on-year, from -EU$29.8 million in FY19 to -EU$0.5 million in FY20.

    Outlook

    2020 may have been something of a one-off particularly in terms of paradigm-shifting growth rates. However, Marley Spoon still sees plenty of room to expand. The company estimates the global grocery market to be valued at $7 trillion. Online penetration, however, has so far only reached 3% to 4%.

    Marley Spoon forecasts revenue growth of between 25% and 30% for FY21 (which would mean a result somewhere between EU$318 million and EU$330 million). Investment priorities over the next 12 months will be focused on extending Marley Spoon’s product range, beefing up its fulfilment centre capacity, and improving its digital platform.

    Shareholders will be hoping that continued good stewardship by management will translate into further gains in the Marley Spoon share price.

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    Motley Fool contributor Rhys Brock has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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