• ASX share to cash in on US housing boom

    housing asx share price represented by miniature house made from US $100 notes

    The US housing market is about to explode, and there is one ASX share that will give Australian investors exposure.

    That’s according to Firetrail Investments portfolio manager Ramoun Lazar, who said that last year’s government and Federal Reserve COVID-19 stimuli lit a fire under the real estate market.

    “That really got their housing market started and [gained] some significant momentum through the second half of the calendar year,” he said in a Firetrail video.

    “That momentum was being driven by millennials coming back into the market — so first-home buyers… People in their mid-20s to around 40 years of age who haven’t been active in that US housing market for some time.”

    If the record-low mortgage interest rates can stick around, that momentum will continue over the next 12 to 24 months, according to Lazar.

    The pandemic in the US also compelled existing homeowners to spend up.

    “What we saw in the US was an initial uptick in do it yourself activity. So people were just doing small repair jobs around the home, making their homes more presentable, more livable.”

    40 years: average age of an American house

    Lazar pointed out that the typical US residential home is about 40 years old.

    “So quite an old footprint for the US housing stock. As that millennial cohort start to buy houses, get married, have a family, what we’re going to see is an increased level of repair and remodel activity,” he said.

    “And that’s going to underpin spend in that renovation sector of the market or segment of the market.”

    There will also be a driver for new houses.

    “We estimate the US needs about 1.5 million new homes every year, just to stand still,” said Lazar.

    “Over the last 10 years, we’ve seen housing starts materially below that one and a half million… The reason for that is after the 2008 housing-led financial crisis, that millennial cohort was very slow in embracing homeownership.”

    But now that the government and federal reserve stimulus is in people’s pockets, construction activity will ramp up.

    ASX share that doubles its addressable market

    Remarkably, there is an ASX share that’s perfectly placed to take advantage of this housing frenzy in the US.

    Construction materials maker James Hardie Industries plc (ASX: JHX) is ready to double its total addressable market, according to Lazar.

    “The real exciting factor we think over the next 2, 3, 5 years for James Hardie is the new product portfolio that they’re about to introduce into that US housing market,” he said.

    “Traditionally, James Hardie has targeted that wood look market… but it’s about to release a portfolio of products in the US that will target other segments of the market, such as brick and stucco. Stucco’s known [in Australia] as cement render, which is a very popular exterior siding product in the US.”

    If James Hardie’s execution takes proper advantage of the real estate boom, the world is their oyster.

    “We think there are significant earnings and valuation upside potential in James Hardie from that new product portfolio.”

    Lazar was also excited that James Hardie’s margins in the US seem to be growing.

    “We’ve several periods now of margin expansion in their North American business, and we think that’s going to continue. And what that’s been driven by is a lot of self-help initiatives around manufacturing,” he said.

    “What that’s underpinned is margins growing close to 30% in the last couple of quarters. Historically Hardies targets between 20% to 25% margin. We think that uplift is sustainable.”

    The James Hardie share price was up 0.91% on Friday, to trade at $44.34 at market close. It started this year at $38.74.

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    Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • AGL Energy (ASX:AGL) share price hits 52-week low

    Turning down AGL shares represented by man placing hands up in front of him and frowning

    The AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL) share price has been under pressure lately. Shares in the Aussie energy group fell 1.0% lower on Friday to close at $8.71 per share.

    That’s a new 52-week low for the electricity generator and retailer or ‘gentailer’, so what does May 2021 look like from here?

    Why the AGL Energy share price is at a 52-week low

    April was a busy month for the Aussie energy company. AGL announced on 30 March that it intended to create a demerger of sorts to create “two leading energy businesses”.

    That plan was unveiled by AGL managing director and CEO, Brett Redman. Mr Redman said there will be a structural separation of the existing group into:

    • “New AGL”, Australia’s largest multi-product energy retailer focused on low carbon; and
    • “PrimeCo”, Australia’s largest electricity generator.

    The proposed structural separation was designed to give each business more freedom and further drill down into key areas of the Aussie electricity market.

    That was all well and good, but the plan has changed. Mr Redman abruptly announced his resignation on 22 April and caused a rapid reshuffle at AGL during the month.

    AGL chair Graeme Hunt will become interim CEO and managing director, while non-executive director Peter Botten has been appointed chair.

    News of the leadership change saw the AGL share price fall lower in April. The announcement took many in the market by surprise given Mr Redman’s short tenure and structural plans. The Aussie energy company has commenced a search for its next CEO willing to commit to the transition phase.

    What else is happening for AGL?

    Leadership changes weren’t the only thing moving the AGL share price in April. AGL announced that its joint venture with Mercury NZ Ltd (ASX: MCY), Powering Australian Renewables (PowerAR), had increased its offer price to acquire Tilt Renewables Ltd (ASX: TLT).

    The revised NZ$8.10 per share or NZ$3.07 billion offer came after Canadian pension fund CDPQ had lobbed a late competing offer for the Kiwi renewables group. That was ultimately enough to clinch the deal for Tilt over and above CDPQ.

    There have also been concerns about testing domestic electricity and gas supply and demand issues. Market commentators and regulators continue to watch the market to ensure ongoing electricity security, particularly in the retail market.

    Foolish takeaway

    The AGL share price has been under pressure in April. Shares in the Aussie energy company are sitting at a 52-week low prior to Monday’s open as the latest CEO departure makes investors wary.

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  • What to expect from the Coles (ASX:COL) Q3 update

    asx retail ipo represented by young trendy girl sitting in shopping trolley

    The Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) share price will be one to watch this week when it releases its third quarter update.

    Ahead of the release, I thought I would take a look to see what is expected from the supermarket giant.

    What is the market expecting from Coles?

    According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts note that the supermarket industry is entering an “interesting phase”. This is due to it cycling through the COVID-19 pantry stocking boom late in the third quarter of FY 2020.

    In fact, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, supermarket and grocery sales grew 24.8% in March 2020. As a result, Goldman expects both Coles and rival Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) to have seen comparable sales decline notably during March. Particularly given recent data out of National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB).

    The broker commented: “NAB reported cashless retail sales in the Supermarket and grocery segment to have been down c. -14% in March 2020. By comparison, our comparable growth estimate for COL implies March 2021 trading at -14.5% assuming that the early quarter trends continued into end of Feb 2021. Similarly, for WOW our estimates imply a comparable sales decline of c. -13% for March 2021.”

    What does Goldman expect Coles to report?

    Goldman expects Coles to report a 3% decline in comparable food sales for the quarter but a 2% increase in liquor sales.

    This is expected to lead to total sales of $9,039.6 million, comprising food sales of $7,960.4 million and liquor sales of $802.5 million.

    Is the Coles share price in the buy zone?

    Despite the softer trading, Goldman Sachs remains positive and believes the Coles share price is in the buy zone.

    It commented: “While sales are expected to be volatile, we continue to believe that industry profitability will be manageable over CY21 and believe the current market concerns over a price war in the sector are overstated.”

    Goldman has therefore retained its buy rating and $20.70 price target on its shares. Based on the current Coles share price, this represents potential upside of almost 32%.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of COLESGROUP DEF SET and Woolworths Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • CommBank (ASX:CBA) share price hits new 52-week high

    unstoppable asx share price represented by man in superman cape pointing skyward

    The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price edged 0.3% higher on Friday to close at a new 52-week high. Shares in Australia’s largest bank finished the day at $89.39 per share with a $158.6 billion market capitalisation.

    This caps off another strong month of trade for the ASX bank share. The CBA share price has climbed 3.8% higher in April as we approach the end of the month. So, what’s pushing the Aussie bank’s valuation higher in 2021?

    Why the CBA share price is hitting new heights

    2020 was a remarkable period for ASX bank shares and CBA was no exception. Shares in the Aussie bank were smashed in the March bear market as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. 

    However, we’ve seen a consistent recovery in bank valuations since late last year. The CBA share price is now up 29.5% since the start of November while the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has climbed 19.1%.

    Favourable conditions including a strong housing market have helped maintain consistent borrowing demand. The banks have been able to write significant business in recent months as the Aussie housing market has heated up, particularly in major cities.

    Government stimulus measures and central bank interventions to drive down lending rates have also been good for the banks. That has allowed them to access cheaper funding and maintain liquidity in Aussie credit.

    Another factor has been the continual economic recovery since mid-last year. Stronger jobs and retail numbers have helped increase confidence in an economic bounce back from COVID-19.

    As a result, earnings have been strong and the CBA share price has climbed to a new 52-week high. That’s despite a couple of recent hiccups including a deceptive conduct fine and a big four bank class action.

    Foolish takeaway

    The big four bank shares have been strong performers to start the year. The CBA share price has jumped to a new 52-week high as at Friday’s close and it will be interesting to see how it performs in May.

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  • Is the Telstra (ASX:TLS) share price better value than the TPG (ASX:TPG) share price?

    hand holding an iPhone with a blue 5G sign on top

    On Friday the Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS) share price pushed higher after it announced a $277 million investment in 5G spectrum.

    The telco giant expects this investment to further extend its leadership in 5G now and into the future.

    Was this a good move by Telstra?

    This morning analysts at Goldman Sachs gave their verdict on this investment and the one that rival TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPG) made in the same auction.

    In respect to Telstra, Goldman was pleased with its investment, which was broadly in line with its expectations. However, TPG’s investment was smaller than the broker was expecting.

    It commented: “TLS secured 1,000MHz (in-line with GSe, auction limit), TPG secured a smaller amount than expected, with 400MHz across Melbourne/Sydney/Perth and 600MHz across other geographies (GSe 700MHz), while Optus secured 800MHz nationally excl. Margaret River/Hobart (600MHz).“

    As for pricing, the broker notes that prices per Mhz were broadly in line with expectations.

    What was Goldman’s overall thoughts?

    Overall, Goldman Sachs believes Telstra did better than TPG from the auction and is now in a position to grow its fixed wireless business in the coming years.

    It said: “We believe TPG’s lower than expected share of the mmWave spectrum (especially underweight Syd/Melb) could limit overall capacity on their fixed wireless networks (launching in 1H21), which we see as somewhat surprising given we believe it is a key focus. While for Telstra, the outcome is broadly as expected; we forecast Fixed Wireless to grow to a meaningful level for TLS (>10% Fixed wireless penetration of broadband subs by FY24), noting their Fixed Wireless product launch is expected in coming months.”

    In light of this, the broker has retained its buy rating and $4.00 price target on the Telstra share price and neutral rating and $7.10 price target on the TPG share price.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Telstra Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • 2 outstanding ASX growth shares rated as buys

    asx buy

    If you’re on the lookout for growth shares to add to your portfolio, then you may want to look at the two listed below.

    Here’s why these ASX shares could be good additions right now:

    REA Group Limited (ASX: REA)

    The first ASX growth share to look at is REA Group. It is the dominant player in real estate listings in the Australian market with its realestate.com.au website.

    REA Group has been (successfully) battling difficult trading conditions over recent years caused by a housing market downturn and COVID-19. However, those tough trading conditions have now eased and the housing market is booming.

    This is expected to lead to a significant increase in listings over the coming years. Which, combined with cost cutting, price increases, and new revenue streams, could support solid earnings growth.

    Macquarie is a fan of REA Group. Its analysts currently have an outperform rating and $171.70 price target on its shares.

    Xero Limited (ASX: XRO)

    Another ASX growth share to look at is this leading cloud-based business and accounting software platform provider.

    Due to the quality and stickiness of its platform and its international expansion, Xero has been growing both its customer numbers and subscription revenues at a very strong rate over the last few years.

    Positively, this has continued in FY 2021 despite many small businesses struggling during the pandemic.

    For example, during the first half of FY 2021, Xero’s subscriber numbers increased to 2.45 million, underpinning a 21% increase in operating revenue to NZ$409.8 million.

    The good news is that while these are large numbers, they are still only a small portion of its addressable market. Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe Xero can triple its subscriptions to 7.4 million by 2030.

    Furthermore, if Xero can successfully broaden and monetise its app ecosystem and expand into new geographies, Goldman believes it would open a further NZ$62 billion in total addressable market (TAM). This is on top of its core TAM of NZ$14 billion across key markets.

    The broker currently has a buy rating and $153.00 price target on its shares.

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    James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended REA Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • 3 ASX shares that keep growing the dividend every year

    using asx shares to retire represented by piggy bank on sunny beach

    There are a group of ASX shares that keep growing the dividend every year, including through the difficult COVID-19 year.

    It can be useful to know that there are businesses that aim to increase their shareholder payout every year. Particularly in this world of limited income growth. 

    These three ASX shares have been steadily growing the dividend for multiple years:

    Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (ASX: CLW)

    This is a real estate investment trust (REIT) which owns a high-quality portfolio of properties with a long weighted average lease expiry (WALE). It has increased its distribution in each of the last few years.

    The ASX dividend share looks to pay out 100% of its operating profit each year, which helps keep it at a relatively high dividend yield. At the moment the FY21 yield is expected to be at least 5.9% based on management’s guidance.

    It has high-quality tenants like Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS), Australian government entities, BP and Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW).

    Charter Hall Long WALE REIT has been steadily acquiring more properties that have long-term rental agreements. The WALE at 31 December 2020 was 14.1 years, giving the business good rental visibility.

    The REIT is currently rated as a buy by Morgan Stanley, with a price target of $5.35.

    APA Group (ASX: APA)

    APA is one of the largest infrastructure businesses on the ASX. It owns large gas pipeline networks around Australia. It also has investments in gas storage, gas-powered energy generation and renewable energy.

    The ASX dividend share has been growing its distribution in consecutive years going back to before the GFC.

    It funds its distribution from its operating cashflow, which is steadily growing as the business finishes more projects. In the last few months it has announced a couple of projects in Western Australian which will unlock further cashflow growth.

    In the coming months, APA may be able to announce an acquisition or opportunity in the US. It has been looking for growth ideas there for quite a while. COVID-19 has delayed that search.

    At the current APA share price, it has a distribution yield of 5%.

    Bapcor Ltd (ASX: BAP)

    Bapcor is an auto parts business, it says it’s the leader in Australasia.

    The ASX dividend share has managed to grow its dividend every year since it started paying one several years ago.

    Car parts are a pretty defensive sector and the demand has steadily increased over time. Things are booming right now with all of the impacts of COVID-19 and Bapcor is really seeing profit soar across its diverse array of businesses.

    FY21 half-year pro flrma net profit after tax (NPAT) grew by 54% to $70.2 million, whilst pro forma earnings per share (EPS) grew by 28.9% to 20.7 cents.

    Thanks to the profit growth and the continued strong performance into the second half of the financial year, the Bapcor board decided to increase the interim dividend by a further 12.5% to 9 cents.

    At the current Bapcor share price it has a grossed-up dividend yield of 3.2%.

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    Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Bapcor and Telstra Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of APA Group and Woolworths Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • 2 ASX dividend shares with very generous yields

    ASX dividend shares represented by cash in jeans back pocket

    According to the latest Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) weekly economic report, the banking giant continue to expect the cash rate to remain on hold for some time to come.

    In light of this, the interest rates on offer with savings accounts and term deposits are likely to remain at significantly low level for the next few years at least.

    But don’t let that hold you back from generating a decent passive income. Listed below are two ASX dividend shares that offer investors attractive yields.

    Here’s what you need to know about them:

    Aventus Group (ASX: AVN)

    The first dividend share to look at is Aventus. It is Australia’s largest fully integrated owner, manager, and developer of large format retail centres.

    Thanks to the quality of its tenancies and its exposure to everyday needs and national retailers, Aventus has been able to collect rent largely as normal during the pandemic. This has led to the company reporting both revenue and profit growth during the first half of FY 2021.

    Goldman Sachs was pleased with its performance and appears to believe more of the same is coming in the future.

    It currently has a buy rating and $3.04 price target on its shares and is forecasting a ~16.6 cents per share distribution this year. Based on the current Aventus share price of $2.83, this represents a 5.9% yield.

    Rural Funds Group (ASX: RFF)

    Another ASX dividend share to look at is Rural Funds. It is the owner of a portfolio of high quality Australian agricultural assets that are leased to experienced operators.

    Like Aventus, it has been on form in FY 2021. In February  Rural Funds released its half year results and revealed adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) per unit of 6.6 cents. This means it is on track to achieve its full year forecast.

    It also revealed that its ultra-long weighted average lease expiry (WALE) metric had increased further. It was up from 10.9 years to 11.1 years over the last six months.

    Another positive was that management reaffirmed its FY 2021 distribution guidance of 11.28 cents per share and unveiled its FY 2022 guidance of 11.73 cents per share.

    Based on the current Rural Funds share price of $2.38, this will mean yields of 4.7% and 4.9%, respectively.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro owns shares of Westpac Banking. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended RURALFUNDS STAPLED. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended AVENTUS RE UNIT. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

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    On Friday the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finished a mixed week with the smallest of gains. The benchmark index rose by a modest 5.3 points to 7,060.7 points.

    Will the market be able to build on this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

    ASX 200 futures pointing higher

    The Australian share market looks set to start the week much as it finished it. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the week 4 points higher this morning. This is despite Wall Street finishing the week very strongly on Friday. The Dow Jones rose 0.7%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.1%, and the Nasdaq stormed 1.4% higher.

    Oil prices rise

    Energy producers such as Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Petroleum Limited (ASX: WPL) could start the week on a positive note after oil prices pushed higher. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price rose 1.2% to US$62.14 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price climbed 1.1% to US$66.11 a barrel. That wasn’t enough to stop both WTI and Brent crude oil recording weekly declines amid demand recovery concerns.

    Tech shares on watch

    Tech shares such as Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) and Appen Ltd (ASX: APX) come have a positive start to the week after US tech stocks stormed higher on Friday night. The Nasdaq index rose 1.4% after US investors shrugged off concerns over possible capital gain tax increases. As the local tech sector tends to follow the lead of their US counterparts, today could be a good session.

    Gold price softens

    Gold miners including Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) will be on watch today after the gold price softened on Friday night. According to CNBC, the spot gold price fell 0.25% to US$1,777.80 an ounce. Strong US economic data put pressure on the safe haven asset.

    Oil Search rated as a buy

    The Oil Search Ltd (ASX: OSH) share price could be great value according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. This morning the broker reaffirmed its buy rating but trimmed its price target to $5.55. This compares to the latest Oil Search share price of $3.78. The broker named it as a key pick in the sector, noting that it has leverage to its expected improvement in oil prices.

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    James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Appen Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • 3 growing small cap ASX shares to watch

    woman watching asx share price on digital screen

    Earlier today I looked at a couple of mid cap ASX shares that are highly rated. On this occasion, I’m going to look a little higher up on the risk scale at small cap shares.

    Three small cap ASX shares that could have bright futures are listed below. Here’s what you need to know about them:

    Audinate Group Limited (ASX: AD8)

    The first small cap to watch is Audinate. It is the digital audio-visual networking technologies provider behind the industry-leading Dante audio over IP networking solution. Audinate’s solutions replace point-to-point audio and video connections with easy-to-use, scalable, flexible networking. Hundreds of manufacturers have adopted the technology in thousands of professional products, making it Dante the de facto standard for modern AV connectivity. While demand was soft during the pandemic, sales have been increasing strongly. In fact, last week Audinate reported its highest ever quarterly revenue.

    Pointerra Ltd (ASX: 3DP)

    Another small cap to watch is Pointerra. It is a growing technology company with a focus on the commercialisation of 3D geospatial data. The company’s software allows users to manage, visualise, and share large digital 3D datasets with ease. Last week Pointerra released its third quarter update and revealed further strong growth in cash receipts. For the three months ended 31 March, the company achieved record quarterly cash receipts from customers of $1.37 million. This was more than double the amount recorded during the second quarter of FY 2021. It is also still only the tiniest fraction of an addressable market it estimates to be worth $500 billion annually.

    MNF Group (ASX: MNF)

    Another small cap ASX share to watch is MNF Group. It is a leading provider of Voice over Internet Protocol technology to businesses and consumers. It has also been performing strongly in FY 2021. For example, in February the company released its half year results and reported a 15% increase in recurring revenue to $55.7 million. This was driven by strong growth in new numbers and a Net Revenue Retention of 115%. Positively, management is optimistic on the future thanks to structural tailwinds and its expansion into the Asia market.

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    James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of AUDINATEGL FPO and Pointerra Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended MNF Group Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended AUDINATEGL FPO and Pointerra Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

    The post 3 growing small cap ASX shares to watch appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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