• Why the St Barbara (ASX:SBM) share price will be on watch today

    ASX share price on watch represented by man looking through magnifying glass

    The St Barbara Ltd (ASX: SBM) share price will be on watch this morning following the appointment of an underground mining services contract. It could be a positive day for the company, especially as the gold spot price rose 0.77% higher overnight to US$1,738.17 an ounce.

    At market close yesterday, the gold miner’s shares finished the day down 2.2% to $1.985. Let’s take a look at the announcement and what it might mean for the St Barbara share price.

    Contractor agreement

    The St Barbara share price could be on the move following the company’s latest announcement.

    According to this morning’s release, St Barbara advised that it has selected Macmahon Holdings Limited(ASX: MAH) as its underground mining contractor at the Gwalia mine at Leonora Operations in Western Australia. This new deal replaces outgoing internationally renowned underground mining specialist, Byrnecut, who ran operations for 7 years.

    St Barbara stated that Macmahon brings a fresh perspective to further develop the Gwalia mine. It is projected that mining performance and productivity will improve. This will be due to operating costs being driven down. St Barbara says that the change fits in with its ‘Building Brilliance’ transformation strategy.

    The initial contract will run for a period of 5 years. An option to renew the agreement for another 3 years will also be available.

    Both St Barbara and Macmahon are expected to formally sign the underground mining deal this month.

    Quick take on the Gwalia mine

    Acquired in 2005, Gwalia is Australia’s deepest gold mine, holding 2.1 million ounces of gold in reserves. So far, St Barbara has extracted more than 4 million tonnes from open cut and underground operations.

    St Barbara Management commentary

    Managing director and CEO Craig Jetson welcomed its new partner, saying:

    St Barbara is delighted to appoint Macmahon as a key partner in our commitment to instill a performance-led-culture at Gwalia.

    This change is indicative of St Barbara’s determination to enliven Gwalia’s future, to safely and sustainably rebuild operational performance and to secure future investment by delivering predictable and strong financial returns.

    We would like to thank Byrnecut for their service over the past seven years and look forward to an orderly and effective transition. During the handover period management will be focused on the well- being of our people and continuity of operations.

    St Barbara share price review

    The St Barbara share price has lost around 20% over the past 12 months. Although most of the fall could be attributed to this year’s steep spot gold price decline. The company’s shares are not too far off from their March 2020 lows of $1.615.

    Based on the current share price, St Barbara has a market capitalisation of roughly $1.4 billion.

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    Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • RBA maintains record low rate while staunchly protecting bond market

    dividend shares

    Yesterday afternoon the Reserve Bank of Australia announced that it will hold the official cash rate (OCR) at 0.1%.  The rate has remained at this record low for 4 consecutive months now.

    RBA’s justification for holding rates

    As outlined in the statement provided by RBA Governor Philip Lowe, the global economy is now in a more promising position than it was a few months ago. The ongoing rollout of vaccines is creating less uncertainty looking forward.

    Governor Lowe also acknowledged the increase in global trade and commodity prices. However, the recovery remains highly contingent on COVID-19 and global monetary support.

    The improving unemployment rate and increased spending also indicate a strengthening economy for Australia. Lowe also expects the recovery to continue, enabling gross domestic product (GDP) to return to pre-COVID levels by the middle of this year.

    On the flip side of the coin, wages and pricing are expected to remain dampened. Governor Lowe provided further comments on wages and the job market:

    Further progress in reducing spare capacity is expected, but it will be some time before the labour market is tight enough to generate wage increases that are consistent with achieving the inflation target. In the central scenario, the unemployment rate will still be around 6% at the end of this year and 5.5% at the end of 2022.

    The continued low rate environment has aided in a booming property market. In February, property values experienced their fastest growth in 17 years, as reported by The Australian Financial Review. This illustrates the tight rope the RBA is attempting to walk. On one side it is trying to provide liquidity to markets to avoid collapse. While on the other hand, it is attempting to hold rates down to postpone an increase in financing costs.

    Buying bonds like it’s going out of fashion

    The RBA clarified it maintains its current $200 billion bond-buying quantitative easing program. This comes after the RBA recently provided additional liquidity to the bond market to assist with proper functioning during a sell-off.  The concern with bonds selling off is the declining price results in a higher yield. As a result, the 10-year bond yield shot up to 1.95%.

    To ensure that the real rates yield conformed to the RBA’s intended low rates, the central bank doubled down on Monday. This resulted in the purchase of $4 billion worth of bonds. 

    Further comments in Governor Lowe’s statement indicated that the bank would be prepared to make further adjustments as needed. Bond yields swiftly jumped following the statement yesterday afternoon.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Astoundingly, by the end of August, the central bank is expected to hold $221 billion in bonds. This would represent around 25% of the total outstanding bond market.

    Rising rates could hit shares hard

    As we reported earlier this morning, billionaire investor and head of Magellan Global Fund (ASX: MGF), Hamish Douglass, voiced his concerns about rising rates. The gist of Mr Douglass’s concerns centres around the market having priced in record-low rates for a long time. 

    That fact is, with near-zero returns from the cash market, many investors have shovelled their funds into the share market. If rates were to rise, the willingness to pay historically high earnings multiples for shares would likely diminish. In plain terms, it wouldn’t be pretty. Mr Douglass provided cautionary by commenting, “If you raise interest rates to head off a real inflation threat, then hang on to your chairs.”

    However, the RBA remains steadfast that real rates won’t be allowed to rise until 2024.

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  • Could rain cause inflation and interest rates to rise, hurting ASX shares?

    Interest rates

    The Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) CEO has warned that there could be higher meat prices because of the rain. Could this be a factor causing interest rates to rise, potentially hurting ASX shares?

    Inflation talk

    There seems to be talk of inflation and interest rates everywhere. Rain is probably not at the top of an economist’s list of things to watch for inflation, but the boss of Woolworths says that the higher levels of rain could lead to higher meat prices.

    According to reporting by News.com.au, farmers are keeping cows on their land for longer to graze on the now-fertile land which can sustain bigger cattle herds at the moment.

    News.com.au quoted the Woolworths CEO Brad Banducci, saying: “We do expect to see continued meat price increases…A lot of cattle are being kept on the land.”

    The media piece also highlighted a couple of key quotes from the Meat and Livestock Australia’s 2021 Industry Projections report:

    Improved seasonal conditions in southern Australia throughout 2020, and above-average summer rain in Northern Australia during the 2020–21 wet season, are expected to produce an abundance of pasture in all major cattle producing regions, with the exception of parts of WA.

    The forecast fall in calf slaughter for 2021 is 7 per cent, reinforcing that the herd is entering a rebuild phase, and indicating producers will hold onto calves that otherwise would have been turn off as vealers.

    What does this have to do with interest rates?

    The Reserve Bank of Australia says that Australia’s inflation target is to keep annual consumer price inflation to between 2% to 3% on average over time. The meat price increases could join other goods and services that are seeing an increase in prices due to COVID-19 impacts, such as low supply and higher shipping charges. 

    The RBA has an inflation target to inform its policy decisions. The target helps achieve its goals of: price stability, full employment and the prosperity and welfare of Australians.

    Our central bank believes that low and stable inflation leads to sustainable economic growth.

    There are a number of reasons why high inflation would be viewed as a bad thing.

    If prices rise faster than wages, then they won’t be able to afford to buy as much as before.

    Spending and investment decisions could be distorted.

    Returns on investment may be lower. Regarding this, the RBA says:

    Inflation influences investment decisions because a higher inflation rate will reduce the real return on the investment. Inflation can also affect the real interest paid by borrowers to lenders. For example, if inflation turns out to be higher than expected when the loan was agreed, the lender will get less than they had planned because inflation reduces the purchasing power of the interest earnings they receive.

    The RBA says that when inflation is above its target, this can be a sign that the economy is overheating. If it is below the target, it may mean there’s spare capacity.

    Then then cash rate can be adjusted to suit the situation. The RBA says:

    The cash rate is then used to dampen or stimulate economic activity so that inflation is consistent with the target. If inflation is expected to be higher than the target for a prolonged period, the Reserve Bank would typically increase the cash rate. If inflation is expected to be lower than the target for a sustained period, the Reserve Bank would typically lower the cash rate. Changes in the cash rate take time to affect the economy. That is why the Reserve Bank looks to what inflation is forecast to be in the future when deciding on the level of the cash rate today.

    Warren Buffett once described the relationship between interest rates and asset prices best when he said that interest rates are like gravity. He said when interest rates are higher, it pulls asset prices lower. When interest rates are lower, it can lead to higher asset prices.

    So there could be an interesting period of time ahead for the ASX share market if inflation is high and interest rates have to go up in response.

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  • Is Sonic Healthcare (ASX:SHL) a dividend aristocrat?

    Crown sitting on top of a pile of dividend cash

    One of the true stand-out results from last month’s reporting season came from medical diagnostic company Sonic Healthcare Limited (ASX: SHL). The company benefitted from the surge in demand resulting from COVID-19 and, in the six months to 31 December 2021, revenue was up 33% over the comparable period, while net profit after tax (NPAT) rocketed 166%.

    Importantly for income investors, Sonic Healthcare also announced a 6% increase to its interim dividend, building on a strong history of dividend increases. But is it enough to classify Sonic Healthcare as a ‘dividend aristocrat’?

    What is a dividend aristocrat?

    The term ‘dividend aristocrat’ is used to describe a company that has increased its dividend consecutively for 25 years. It is an auspicious title in the world of dividend investing because it requires a company to unwaveringly defeat the ups and downs of different business cycles.

    Unfortunately, Sonic Healthcare’s distribution history doesn’t quite crack the ‘aristocrat’ criteria, although it does come deliciously close.

    In fact, if it wasn’t for a short period from 2010 to 2012 when the dividend remained flat, Sonic Healthcare would be there. Just have a look at the impressive chart below:

    Source: Chart compiled by author using data from Sonic Healthcare.

    How much of its earnings does the company pay out?

    An important driver of the great chart above is Sonic Healthcare’s progressive dividend policy. This is where dividends are increased over time as earnings grow. However, if earnings fall, the company tries to at least maintain the same dividend level. The approach gradually raises the bar each time the distribution is increased.

    It also means the company’s payout ratio, the percentage of earnings per share (EPS) the company pays out, can fluctuate from year to year, depending on earnings. For example, in 2019 Sonic Healthcare paid out 66.4% of its earnings. However, in 2020 the ratio increased to 76.5% as the dividend increased, but earnings per share dipped. 

    What is Sonic Healthcare’s dividend yield?

    The most recent interim dividend of 36 cents per share for the six months to 31 December 2020 gives the company a trailing dividend yield of 2.7%, based on the current Sonic Healthcare share price. The dividend comes partly franked.

    When does Sonic Healthcare pay its dividend?

    The Sonic Healthcare share price will go ex-dividend on Tuesday 9 March 2021. The ‘ex-date’ is when the shares start selling without the value of its next dividend payment. An investor needs to own the shares before the ex-date to receive the dividend. The dividend will then be paid on Wednesday 24 March 2021.

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    Motley Fool contributor Regan Pearson has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. ou can follow him on Twitter @Regan_InvestsThe Motley Fool Australia has recommended Sonic Healthcare Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • 5 things to do when the ASX crashes

    woman putting hands to head and grimacing at having missed out on rising asx tech shares OFX

    Share markets have dipped violently in recent weeks as long-term bond yields increased and investors feared inflation would force interest rates up.

    First-time stock investors have had a great time since March, so it might have been a bit of shock to them that share prices can actually depreciate.

    Even for veterans, it can be hard to think of a firm course of action when markets start crumbling.

    Panic can set in, and you can end doing some foolish things.

    So it’s a great time to bone up on a definite 5-pronged strategy, as Marcus Today director Marcus Padley set out earlier this year:

    Sell down to take a break

    Padley told investors in a Marcus Today newsletter in January that he doesn’t mind individual retail investors selling during a market correction.

    “There is nothing wrong with selling,” he said.

    “It can be cathartic and will leave you going to bed tonight hoping the market falls over. Take a break. It has been a good run.”

    Cash is the only true defence for retail investors, according to Padley.

    “Buying… defensive stocks, that go down less savagely in a correction, is for fund managers, not individual investors.”

    Assume sell-off is temporary

    Having said that, Padley would think any sell-off in the coming weeks is “just the herd dropping its pants for a moment”, rather than a structural correction.

    “So if you sell, you are being cute,” he said.

    “If there was a new element — a war, a virus mutation, a trade dispute, it could well develop. But a shorting fiasco in small US stocks, a couple of lazy results in the US…it’s not enough to start an actionable correction.”

    So if you actioned the first step, then it’s more for psychological comfort.

    “At the moment the main reason to sell is short term — for peace of mind, to take a break, to take a profit, to re-assess,” said Padley.

    “Not because there is an earnings risk event developing.”

    Take the profits and run

    If you’ve had a nice run with a stock that could be vulnerable to a market correction, then take the profit and walk out the door.

    “Check your list. Any fliers on infinite PEs?” said Padley.

    “They will be sold down first/hardest if it happens.”

    We all know the stocks in our portfolio that now have astronomical price-to-earnings ratios. If not, it’s time to work out which ones they are.

    Sell to buy

    As a fund manager, Padley’s team would never sell to “take a break”. But they will sell to free up cash to buy bargains.

    “Any short term correction will quickly become a buying opportunity in a vaccine rollout world recovering from a pandemic,” he said.

    “If you’re fully invested, as we are, you need cash. You need to sell something, to exploit buying opportunities in stocks you like. That’s about the only thing that would drive us to sell. Not fear — but opportunity.”

    Play defence

    As previously mentioned, buying defensive shares in times of market distress is a risky move he would not recommend to a retail investor.

    Nevertheless, it is something professionals do, and is an option.

    “The obvious moves for fund managers that are judged on relative performance is to get more defensive. Defensive sectors will presumably outperform in a falling market,” he said.

    “That would include buying gold stocks, healthcare, consumer staples, utilities and sell high PE tech stocks.” 

    Some retail investors who attempt this might go okay, but likely not.

    “You may even make some money in a correction — but it’s a low odds game for individuals, trying to make money in a falling market.”

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    Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Exploring the golden window of opportunity for ASX ESG investors

    ESG investment fund managers Helga Birgden and Martyn Meyer

    The Motley Fool chats with fund managers so that you can get an insight into how the professionals think. In this edition, Martyn Myer – immediate past president, Myer Foundation – and Helga Birgden – global head of responsible investment, Mercer – make the case for ASX ESG investments.

    A bit of background

    You may have heard environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing referred to as ethical or responsible investing. That’s because ESG takes into account environmental, social and governance factors as material to investment returns.

    Last year, the Myer Foundation partnered with Mercer’s Responsible Investment business to help achieve its goal of having 100% of its portfolio invested in companies with high ESG rankings.

    Now on to our interview with Helga Birgden and Martyn Myer.

    Why should Australian investors seek out sustainable investments? 

    Martyn: Given the current climate change issues, it’s humanity that’s in trouble, not the planet. If we don’t get it right, all bets are off. What sort of planet are we going to leave our children and grandchildren? There are lots of things that we can be doing that won’t break the bank. There are lots of things that we have to be doing, not should, but have to.

    Helga: These [ESG] investments can outperform too. Not all responsible investment strategies outperform over all periods. But because we’re long-term investors, focused on returns and truly sustainable investment solutions, we see outperformance. 37% or $1.15 trillion of assets of a total of $3.4 trillion are managed under responsible investment categories according to the RIAA [Responsible Investment Association Australasia]. The Australian equity universe has done very well for those that applied sustainable characteristics.

    For example, a sample of the Mercer Fund’s highly rated responsible investment Australian equity strategies have outperformed against the S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) benchmark over the last 7 years to December 2020. As of the middle of last year those [responsible investment] equities delivered annual returns of 10.4% over the last 3 years, compared to 5.2% from the ASX 300.

    Martyn: If you invest with ESG principles in mind in a sophisticated way, you invest with economic and social tailwinds behind your investment instead of headwinds. It means that lots of things you’re investing in are growing far faster than GDP. So, you’re investing in growth, but for a very sound reason.

    Now there are plenty of ESG funds that apply very simple screening techniques, they sort of do it after the fact. Whereas the sophisticated funds that Mercer helped us find do it from the beginning, it’s integrated into their whole investment management process.

    Helga: It’s very important to take a nuanced view and a sophisticated view, because not all strategies are equal. Income strategies, for example, have lagged over the last couple of years. What we’re talking about here is understanding the investment thesis and portfolio construction in detail. And recognising the importance of the sustainability characteristics around climate and sustainable development, etc.

    What are the biggest concerns investors should have about the impact of climate change on their ASX portfolio? 

    Martyn: If you’re in the wrong assets you could end up in stranded assets. I don’t mean just in climate terms. If you think in governance terms, Crown Resorts Ltd (ASX: CWN) is a classic example. Look what happens when the governance of the board and the most senior management level is bad. They’re about to lose their licenses around the country. It could destroy billions of dollars in shareholder value. And you can boil that down to poor governance. Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) had similar problems, Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) had problems like that. Even Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) and its interaction with the federal government.

    So it’s not just climate issues. If you’re not investing with these sorts of things in mind, you could invest in companies in danger of blowing up their business models or becoming stranded assets and destroying shareholder value.

    Helga: One of the biggest concerns for investors is about what should be in their portfolios in the light of current policy commitments in Australia. We are framed to reduce our pollution by 15% by 2023 if we are to meet the Paris Agreement goal. That’s only 2 years away. And 45% absolute carbon emissions reductions in the next 9 years. For investors that’s pretty significant.

    A study by Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) showed that companies that have strong climate change news, which can be evidenced, outperformed as much as 20% cumulatively over the last 12 years. There is the economic reality that climate is being priced in. And Australian equities are going to need to make up an important part of carbon reduction in portfolios.

    We now see some of the leading companies committing to net zero targets like Santos Ltd (ASX: STO), Woodside Petroleum Limited (ASX: WPL), and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES). And the institutional investor community as well, such as HESTA Super, UniSuper, Aware Super.

    There’s a reason they’re doing that. APRA, ASIC, the RBA have all called out to banks, insurers and superfunds to look at their exposure to the physical risks of climate change.

    A lot of the global commitments on emissions stretch out to 2050. What are the more immediate impacts of national emissions reduction plans on ASX share prices?

    Martyn: Here in Australia, the financial markets and the corporates are moving much faster than the federal government. The state governments are moving faster too. They’ve all committed to zero emissions by 2050, but they’ve also committed to 50% or more reductions by 2030.

    In investment terms, the next decade represents a great opportunity to earn alpha, using these [ESG screening] techniques. But I think after a decade this stuff will be so mainstream that there won’t be the opportunity to add alpha out of it. There’s this golden window of opportunity to use these tools and find the funds and the companies that are doing ESG really effectively. And you can have 3–5% per year in alpha. But it won’t last forever. It will all become mainstream and priced in. And those companies that don’t do it will have gone bust or disappeared or taken over.

    How do you weigh up the different factors in E, S, and G investing? Is any one more important than the other?

    Martyn: We don’t emphasise one over another. Having said that the Myer Foundation is very focused on climate. But we’ve found that the very best companies and funds are integrating all of these 3 issues. If the governance isn’t good, then you’re never going to get the other stuff right.

    Helga: At Mercer, we rate strategies for E, S, and G. In order for a manger’s strategy to rate well on ESG they have to show their research, portfolio construction, portfolio holdings and manager policy is consistent within their portfolio, how they are managing all 3 E, S, and G risks and opportunities. But, as Martyn rightly points out, governance is absolutely core. Assessing the financial risks associated with ESG requires a comprehensive approach, so that shareholders know what they’re getting.

    How do you qualify the social aspect of ESG from an investor perspective? 

    Helga: The social aspects are increasingly important. They are key topics like diversity inclusion, workplace safety, income inequality, financial inclusion. For example, what we call ‘just transition’. With the move to a net zero economy, we have to look after workers in the fossil fuel industry. So job reskilling and training, and mental health are all important to companies as we transition. Modern slavery risk in supply chain is another big issue we’ve done a lot of work on at Mercer for investor clients.

    Key areas of concern include gender – how companies approach and promote gender equality and women’s empowerment across the value chain – and human rights. Issues like digital inclusion, making sure everyone has access to information we may take for granted, are increasingly important.

    Martyn: Older people and minorities more often don’t have access to digital technologies. That can affect things like information and access to the vaccines, as they’re seeing in America.

    How much concern is greenwashing and how can investors address this? 

    Martyn: The Myer Foundation struggled when we decided we wanted to go 100% [ESG]. How could we possibly do all the due diligence necessary to find those funds who are not greenwashing. Who are instead doing it in a sophisticated way. That’s when we asked Mercer to help us, they’ve tracked all of these strategies for 15 years or more. They helped us scan more than 10,000 strategies, and we really came down to the best 25 we could find in 3 asset classes.

    But there’s no doubt greenwashing is going on. And they should be called out, and I think they will be over time. They won’t get the rating from companies like Mercer.

    Helga: We have to be very alert to greenwashing. But I think most investors have a very good ‘BS’ filter, especially in Australia. We’re good at spotting it a mile off. It comes down to research and the ratings process. We have an independent team of 250 people researching every day into manager strategies and how they are implemented. The ESG aspects are core to their assessment.

    The best way for investors to avoid greenwashing is to make sure you have access to good research and work with industry groups. For example, the Responsible Investment Association of Australasia has some great information and resources. But greenwashing is certainly going to be around for a while, with so much interest in the [ESG] subject.

    For companies low on the ESG ratings, could less demand from increasingly responsible investors and ESG focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lead to improved dividend returns for those still buying shares? 

    Martyn: In the short-term, the answer is probably yes. But it’s the sort of risk that I wouldn’t want to take. A superfund would be concerned about the issues of stranded assets, business models being blown up or social licenses to operate getting ripped up.

    We’re long-term investors. We’ve been in equities for nearly 100 years. I think you just can’t take those sorts of risks. Even in the short-term, the volatility is just going to get worse.

    Helga: It really comes down to the investor’s purpose and time frame, etc. But, yes, that may be the case. If investors don’t allocate capital to those sorts of companies, there will always be another investor who will step in. But there is abundant research showing that the cost of capital for such companies goes up.

    Martyn: I should stress here that a lot of uninitiated investors think that there’s a trade-off here. They think if they invest along ESG principles they sacrifice returns. We actually see that entirely in reverse. If you do it in a sophisticated way it adds a lot of value.

    Where do you see the most opportunity for responsible investing on the ASX in 2021? 

    Helga: There are great opportunities around green property and energy efficiency. You don’t need to be investing in something new. There is a lot of robust investment in existing technologies and very strong returns in the whole energy efficiency theme.

    If an investor is wanting to de-carbonise their portfolio, they do have to be aware of timing in the short-term. There is such a things as de-carbonisation at the right price. At times it’s not tactical. There might be times when there’s market exuberance around green stocks. You need to be savvy about that.

    Martyn: Of course, none of this obviates the need to follow good investment principles, to have a diversified portfolio of various asset classes.

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    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

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    Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to its CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Facebook. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Wesfarmers Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Crown Resorts Limited and Facebook. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • The big four banks offer these juicy dividend yields to ASX investors

    Woman holding up wads of cash

    On Tuesday the Reserve Bank met for the second time of the year to decide on the cash rate.

    Although cash rate futures were hinting that there was a possibility of a cut to zero, the central bank held firm and kept rates on hold at 0.1%.

    What now?

    While this is a small win for income investors, it doesn’t do much for them in the grand scheme of things. Term deposits and savings accounts remain at ultra low levels and show little sign of lifting from here in the next couple of years.

    In light of this, it looks set to remain difficult for investors to generate sufficient income from these assets for some time to come.

    But never fear, the Australian share market is home to a number of dividend shares that offer yields that smash those on offer with term deposits.

    Among those shares are the big four banks. Here’s why income investors might be better off with their shares rather than their term deposits or savings accounts.

    Australia and New Zealand Banking GrpLtd (ASX: ANZ)

    Analysts at Morgans expect ANZ to pay a dividend of $1.45 per share in FY 2021 and then $1.61 per share in FY 2022. Based on the current ANZ share price of $26.97, this represents yields of 5.4% and 6%.

    Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

    Ord Minnett is forecasting dividends of $3.20 per share and $3.60 per share over FY 2021 and FY 2022, respectively. Based on the latest CBA share price, this equates to fully franked yields of 3.8% and 4.25%.

    National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB)

    As for NAB, UBS is expecting dividends of $1.25 per share and $1.40 per share over the next two years. With the NAB share price currently fetching $25.24, this represents yields of 4.95% and 5.5%.

    Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC)

    Finally, Morgans has also pencilled in dividends of $1.32 per share in FY 2021 and $1.43 per share in FY 2022 from Australia’s oldest bank. Based on the latest Westpac share price, this will mean yields of 5.45% and 5.9%.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro owns shares of Westpac Banking. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • 3 reasons why Brickworks is a great ASX dividend share

    janus henderson share price increasing represented by pile of australian one hundred dollar notes

    Brickworks Limited (ASX: BKW) is a compelling ASX dividend share for investors focused on income.

    Brickworks is a diversified building products business which sells a number of different products through multiple businesses. The company can trace its history back to 1934.

    Some of those businesses include Austral Bricks, Austral Masonry, Austral Precast, Bristle Roofing, Southern Cross Cement, Urban Stone, GB Masonry and Pronto Panel.

    Here are three reasons why Brickworks could be considered such a good ASX dividend share:

    Dividend reliability

    There are few businesses on the ASX with a dividend record like Brickworks.

    The company can boast that its normal dividend has been maintained or increased every year since 1976.

    When the business held its annual general meeting (AGM), Brickworks Chair Robert Millner said:

    We are proud to be one of the very few S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) companies who have increased dividends to our shareholders during the pandemic and have not needed to raise equity or receive government support payments. Including this year’s dividend increase, we have now maintained or increased normal dividends for the last 44 years.

    The ASX dividend share also boasted that it has had a strong history of total value creation.

    It said that $1,000 invested in Brickworks would have grown to be worth around $470,000 at the time of the AGM.

    Defensive source of cashflow for funding

    Whilst Brickworks is most well known for its building products, the business essentially funds its dividends from the cashflow from its other assets.

    There are two main assets that Brickworks’ dividend is supported by. One of those is the investment conglomerate Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SAX: SOL), which Brickworks now owns 39.4% of. Soul Patts has a diversified portfolio of investments, which are both listed and unlisted.

    Soul Patts’ biggest investment include TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPG), New Hope Corporation Limited (ASX: NHC), Australian Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ASX: API) and Brickworks. In terms of sectors, it’s invested across industries like financial services, resources, telecommunications, technology, energy and pharmaceuticals.

    Brickworks said that Soul Patts has delivered outstanding returns over the long term and it’s expected to continue to deliver a growing stream of earnings and dividends over time.

    The ASX dividend share also owns a 50% stake of a joint venture trust with Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) where Brickworks sells surplus operational land into the trust at market value and Goodman funds the infrastructure works, to create serviced land ready for development.

    Once a lease pre-commitment is secured, the serviced land can then be used as security, with debt funding used to cover the cost of constructing the facilities.

    Brickworks gets access to Goodman’s development skills and its quality customers, whilst Goodman gets access to Brickworks’ prime industrial land.

    The ASX dividend share is receiving steadily-growing rental profit distributions from this JV trust. Brickworks says that it’s expecting the trust’s gross assets to go up by $900 million in value and the rental profit distributions to rise by at least 25% when two huge warehouses are built for Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) and Amazon.

    Long-term growth

    At the current Brickworks share price, it has a grossed-up dividend yield of 4.5%. But that’s today’s yield. Investors who bought many years ago would be getting a much higher yield on cost thanks to the steady dividend growth. In FY20 alone the dividend rose by 4% to $0.59 per share.

    As the dividends from Soul Patts and the profit distributions from the joint venture trust grow then this will be able to fund bigger Brickworks dividends over time.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

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    Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Brickworks and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of COLESGROUP DEF SET. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Billionaire Hamish Douglass says that rising interest rates could cause a share market crash

    ASX

    Billionaire investor Hamish Douglass, who’s the lead investor of global equity funds like Magellan Global Fund (ASX: MGF), has said that rising interest rates could cause big problems for the share market.

    Hamish Douglass webinar

    In a webinar yesterday, entitled ‘Global equities: The year of living dangerously’, Mr Douglass gave his latest thoughts about the share market, inflation, interest rates and other topics.

    As a build up to the webinar, the following questions were part of the advertising for the event: “With a backdrop of emerging viral mutations, vast global fiscal stimulus, zero interest rates and possible pressures on inflation numbers entering the view finder, how is risk being priced? Was November’s stunning market rally a one-off? How do we see 2021 panning out? With these issues currently at play, markets appear complex, even dangerous.”

    The Australian Financial Review reported that he said that share markets could face a “huge reckoning” if inflation causes central banks to increase interest rates which would be a disaster, according to Mr Douglass.

    The AFR quoted Mr Douglass saying:

    Interest rates are close to zero [and] asset prices are very high, reflecting low interest rates. If you raise interest rates to head off a real inflation threat, then hang on to your chairs.

    If I have to take a view I think this will be transitory, the fiscal stimulus will pass through the economy, and then we are going to be looking back into a factual situation of lower long-term structural economic growth.

    But I do think that the bond market is going to be very volatile through the rest of this year. People know that bond rates have gone up.

    Interest rates aren’t the only thing on Mr Douglass’ mind right now. You’ve probably read about how a subreddit on Reddit called wallstreetbets, which is essentially a forum for people discussing shares, decided to heavily invest in the US gaming retailer called GameStop Corp (NYSE: GME). The share price has been very volatile since then. 

    Mr Douglass said that the amount of people who were essentially gambling on GameStop, with no relation to investment principles, scared him. The more people that did it, the more it worries him about how it could end and unwind.

    How is Mr Douglass positioning the portfolios?

    What is one of Australia’s most famous investors doing with all of the above in mind?

    He’s not afraid of going having cash, sometimes the portfolio has had a cash position of more than 10%. At the end of January 2021 the Magellan Global Fund had a cash position of 7% of the portfolio. In the webinar he said that the portfolio is currently 96% invested.

    However, the Magellan Global Fund has investments in a number of consumer staples and utilities which Mr Douglass claims would very likely be resilient if there’s elevated levels of inflation.

    At the end of December 2020, it had names in the portfolio like Starbucks, Reckitt Benckiser, PepsiCo, Nestle, Yum! Brands, McDonalds, Estee Lauder and LVMH (Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton).

    Only time what is going to happen with inflation, interest rates and the share market.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

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    Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison owns shares of Magellan Global Fund. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

    ASX share

    On Tuesday the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gave back its strong early gains to finish the day lower. The benchmark index dropped 0.4% to 6,762.3 points.

    Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

    ASX 200 futures pointing higher

    It looks set to be a better day for the Australian share market on Wednesday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 15 points or 0.2% higher. In late trade on Wall Street, the Dow Jones is up 0.1%, the S&P 500 is down 0.1%, and the Nasdaq index is 0.7% lower.

    Oil prices rise

    Energy producers such as Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could push higher today after oil prices strengthened. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 0.4% to US$60.83 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 0.25% to US$63.81 a barrel.

    Tech shares on watch

    It could be a tough day for tech shares such as Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) and Xero Limited (ASX: XRO) on Wednesday. This follows a poor night of trade on the tech-focused Nasdaq index. The local tech sector has a tendency to follow the illustrious index’s lead.

    Gold price charges higher

    Gold miners Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Resolute Mining Limited (ASX: RSG) could have a positive day after the gold price charged higher. According to CNBC, the spot gold price is up 0.75% to US$1,735.70 an ounce after bond yields softened.

    Shares going ex-dividend

    Another group of shares will be going ex-dividend this morning and could trade lower. This includes Bravura Solutions Ltd (ASX: BVS), InvoCare Limited (ASX: IVC), IOOF Holdings Limited (ASX: IFL), Link Administration Holdings Ltd (ASX: LNK), and Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE). The latter will be paying eligible shareholders a 15 cents per share fully franked dividend on 1 April.

     

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

    *Returns as of February 15th 2021

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    James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Bravura Solutions Ltd and Link Administration Holdings Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Bravura Solutions Ltd, InvoCare Limited, and Link Administration Holdings Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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