• Warning! Lower volatility always comes at a price

    three yellow exclamation marks on blue background

    If you asked a group of ASX investors what their ideal portfolio would look like, I’d bet that some would answer ‘high growth with low volatility‘. This is especially the case when it comes to a superannuation account. This is understandable to an extent. None of us truly enjoy watching the value of our ASX share portfolios bounce around, or crater. For many readers, the memories of what was happening this time last year might still be fresh. That was a scary time indeed.

    But low volatility is not something that can be achieved with regularity. Or I should say with regularity without giving up growth opportunities.

    Modern portfolio theory, a classic framework for analysing investments that won its creators a Nobel prize, is very clear on this. If you want higher growth, it walks hand in hand with higher volatility. Now, modern portfolio theory has its critics. May investors, like Warren Buffett for instance, don’t agree with all of its teachings. But it does have a point here. Assets that inherently deliver low volatility also usually deliver low growth. Think about it, the appeal of holding cash is its absence of volatility. That’s why many investors try to convert their shares to cash in a market crash.

    Volatility and your ASX share portfolio

    There are two main ways investors try and reduce volatility in their portfolios. The first is to do exactly what we just talked about – convert volatile assets to cash when volatility emerges.

    But that strategy for avoiding volatility is fraught with danger. Remember, we only know the market is crashing when the crash itself has already begun. Because of this, converting your shares to cash in order to avoid volatility usually results in ‘locking in’ a loss on your investment. You then have to time the recovery again to get back in, potentially locking yourself out of a rising market. This rarely works, and almost never does consistently. That’s why there’s that phrase ‘time in the market beats timing the market’.

    The second way investors try and beat volatility is by holding assets that are believed to be less volatile in the first place. It could be an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds bonds or cash. It could be infrastructure companies, consumer staples businesses, or other investments like gold that investors consider ‘defensive’. However, these investments are usually not market-beating performers over the long-term. That’s partly why they are called ‘defensive’ in the first place.

    And we are back where we started: If you want lower volatility, you have to give up the prospects of higher growth.

    Foolish takeaway

    Most successful investors, like Warren Buffett, have accepted that volatility is a part of this success. Think about it, anyone who held their nerve in the market crash last year and didn’t touch their portfolio has probably come out the other side stronger than ever. And volatility also gives us the chance to buy our favourite ASX shares at cheap prices. Volatility can be scary, but it can also be our friend if we let it.

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Gold as an investment: A good idea in 2021?

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    After a stellar year in 2020, gold has come off the boil in 2021 so far. Last year saw the price of gold break its 2011 record high, and brought renewed interest in the metal for its fabled ‘hedge against chaos’ properties.

    This is understandable. You could not ask for a more perfect environment for gold, the ultimate ‘safe haven’, than a global pandemic. But what of gold as an investment for 2021?

    Well, gold has certainly been falling. According to Bloomberg, the price of gold today is sitting at US$1,729 an ounce. That’s well below the US$1,895 an ounce at which it started the year, and even further away from the peak of US$2,069 that we saw back in August last year.

    But does that mean we should be considering investing in gold right now? ‘Buy low, sell high’ and all.

    Gold as an investment in 2021

    Gold is far from the perfect investment. As its critics will tell you, gold is just a metal. Unlike property or shares of a company, it produces no yield. And with storage costs and possible insurance, it will probably actually cost you money to even hold it.

    But there are still potential reasons to consider gold as a useful investment in 2021. Billionaire investor and Bridgewater Associates fund manager Ray Dalio agrees. Dalio has just released an article on the matter, in which he stated the following:

    The economics of investing in bonds (and most financial assets) has become stupid… Imagine that the economy is a person and government policy makers are doctors. When the economy’s pulse plunges the doctors run to inject a big dose of stimulation into it. When you see them running to the patient and injecting the giant dose of stimulation, you should buy reflation assets like stocks, inflation-indexed bonds, and gold because the response to the stimulation will initially cause these assets to rise before the stimulation passes through to the economy and the patient starts running around.

    Because gold’s supply is finite, it is an asset that will theoretically perform well in an inflationary environment, such as the one Dalio is predicting will come to pass.

    Dalio went on to say this:

    I believe a well-diversified portfolio of non-debt and non-dollar assets along with a short cash position is preferable to a traditional stock/bond mix that is heavily skewed to US dollars.

    So his recommendation seems to be that owning gold as a part of a diversified portfolio is a prudent idea.

    So how does one do this?

    Well, there are a few options. There’s always the physical metal itself in bullion form. However, the cost of buying gold this way can be prohibitive to many investors. As such, you can always consider buying an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds gold. An example on the ASX would be the ETFS Physical Gold ETF (ASX: GOLD).

    There are always mining companies too. If a company owns a gold mine, it technically owns all of the gold within it. You would also own part of this gold by extension as a shareholder. The ASX’s largest gold miner is Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM)but there are quite a few others to choose from as well.

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen owns shares of Newcrest Mining Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • These 2 ASX shares are the newest “buy” ideas from top brokers

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    No one will blame you if you feel there’s a lack of buying opportunities among ASX shares as the S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO) pushes towards record highs.

    But there are ASX shares that are in the “buy” zone and leading brokers have picked the latest two that’s worth considering in this toppish market.

    The first is the Select Harvests Limited (ASX: SHV) share price as Citigroup initiated coverage on the stock with a “buy” recommendation.  

    Going nuts about earnings growth

    The broker believes the almond grower’s profits will increase at 41% a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from FY20 to FY23.

    The big profit drivers for the Select Harvests share price are a rebound in almond prices on lower Californian supply, the acquisition of the high-yielding Piangil orchard and a normalisation of water costs.

    The ASX share on a new bull cycle

    “Almond prices have historically followed a 10-year cycle driven by Californian industry fundamentals,” said Citi.

    “While COVID-19 has disrupted this cycle, we forecast almond prices to peak at US$4.48/lb (A$13/kg) in 2024/25; almost triple current levels.”

    The broker’s 12-month price target on Select Harvests is $6.50 a share. The Select Harvests share price jumped 1.8% to $5.61 in morning trade.

    Upgraded to “buy” despite rising bond yields

    Meanwhile, the Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) share price is also outperforming at the time of writing.

    The industrial property group got upgraded by UBS to “buy” from “neutral” despite rising bond yields.

    Property shares typically move in the opposite direction to bond yields, but the broker isn’t concerned.

    Multiple reasons to buy this ASX share

    This is partly because Goodman Group’s valuations are inherently conservative, according to UBS. This provides a substantial buffer to material interest rate movements.

    Further, the group’s development margins are in excess of 30% on conservative end-value yields and management can improve its portfolio through developments and divestments.

    UBS also estimates that a 50-basis point increase in the discount rate (tied to bond yields) will cut the share valuation by 12%. But this can be largely offset by rent increases and inflation.

    Finally, Goodman Group’s strong balance sheet and ability to fund growth via equity means its reasonably insulated from the rising cost of debt.

    “Given that the stock is now trading at a significant discount to our unchanged A$18.70 FY22E NAV-based price target, and given acceleration in the underlying business, we see risk-reward as skewed to the upside over our forecast horizon,” added UBS.

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  • What’s happening with the Centuria (ASX:CNI) share price today?

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    The Centuria Capital Group (ASX: CNI) share price was up 1% in early morning trade before retracing. At the time of writing, the Centuria share price is up 0.63%.

    Centuria is listed on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and is currently trading for $2.38 per share.

    We take a look at the latest announcement from Centuria Healthcare, a subsidiary of Centuria Capital, below.

    What did Centuria Healthcare announce to the market this morning?

    Centuria’s shares are moving today. This comes in light of the company reporting that its Healthcare subsidiary has partnered with a joint venture (JV) to deliver a new private hospital. Furthermore, the $64 million short-stay facility will be developed in Kew, Melbourne.

    The JV consists of 42 specialist doctors along with Medibank. Centuria Healthcare reported it will also own the asset. In addition, the company reports that the JV has committed to a 15-year lease term.

    Comments from the managing director

    On the partnership, Andrew Hemming, Centuria Healthcare managing director, said:

    We are delighted to partner with the joint venture doctors and Medibank to develop and own the real estate delivering this new short-stay surgical facility. This is a transformative project that can change the landscape of the healthcare sector and we are pleased to be the real estate partner of this forward-thinking project.

    Hemming also added that the project aligns with Centuria Healthcare’s strategy “to partner with top-tier operators backed by secure lease covenants”.

    Centuria Healthcare currently has around $1 billion of modern healthcare real estate assets across Australia.

    However, the new hospital development remains subject to obtaining the standard licensing and planning approvals.

    Centuria share price snapshot

    Over the past 12 months, Centuria’s shares have gained 16%. That compares to a 36% gain on the ASX 200.

    Year-to-date the Centuria Capital share price is down 8%.

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  • ASX 200 up 0.8%: Metcash update, tech shares rebound, PointsBet acquisition

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    At lunch on Tuesday the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to record a solid gain. The benchmark index is currently up 0.8% to 6,825.3 points.

    Here’s what is happening on the market on Tuesday:

    Metcash strategy update

    The Metcash Limited (ASX: MTS) share price is trading lower today following the release of its strategy update. In addition to its strategy update, the wholesale distributor revealed strong sales momentum for all business segments so far in the second half of 2021. Supermarket, hardware and liquor sales have all experienced double digit growth compared to the prior corresponding period. Another positive is that Metcash has increased its target dividend payout ratio from 60% to 70% of underlying net profit after tax.

    Tech shares rebounding

    It has been a better day for tech shares such as Appen Ltd (ASX: APX) and Xero Limited (ASX: XRO) on Tuesday. Thanks to the easing of bond yields in the United States, investors have been piling back into the sector again. This led to the tech-heavy Nasdaq index rising over 1% during overnight trade. On the local market, the S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX) has followed its lead and is up 1.2% at the time of writing.

    PointsBet announces acquisition

    The PointsBet Holdings Ltd (ASX: PBH) share price is pushing higher today after announcing the acquisition of Banach Technology for US$43 million. Banach Technology is a Dublin-based provider of proprietary risk management platforms and quantitative driven trading models. These platforms and models support complex pre-game and in-play betting products across numerous sports, including the four major American sports and international soccer. In-play wagering is expected to represent ~75% of all sports wagering activity in the United States within three years.

    Best and worst ASX 200 performers

    The best performer on the ASX 200 on Tuesday has been the ARB Corporation Limited (ASX: ARB) share price with a 4% gain. This is despite there being no news out of the 4×4 accessories company. The worst performer has been the Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA) share price with a decline of 3% on no news.

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    James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Appen Ltd and Pointsbet Holdings Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended ARB Limited and Pointsbet Holdings Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • What’s with the Clean TeQ (ASX:CLQ) share price today?

    The Clean TeQ Holdings Ltd (ASX: CLQ) share price is flat in morning trade despite the company reporting its second major contract in as many days.

    Shares in the technology-oriented ASX pollution control company are trading at 27 cents per share at the time of writing.

    Let’s take a closer look at what’s happening with the Clean TeQ share price today.

    What new contract award did Clean TeQ announce?

    In today’s release, the company announced a new contract to design and install a Clean TeQ BIONEX water treatment plant in a Chinese coal mine. The contract has been awarded to Clean TeQ’s 100% owned Beijing-based subsidiary.

    Clean TeQ said the water treatment facility, to be built at the mine site in Inner Mongolia, can treat and remove “nitrate from 12,000 m3 /day of coal mine in pit groundwater to below 1 ppm”. This level is in line with local regulations for mine water disposal.

    Worth approximately $2 million, the contract was awarded by a subsidiary of Beijing Enterprises Water Group (HKG: 0371), which has a market cap of more than $5.2 billion.

    Clean TeQ reports that the company, among the largest water treatment companies in Asia, has “expressed an interest in ongoing cooperation once this first BIONEX plant is successfully commissioned”.

    Words from the management

    Commenting on the new contract, Clean TeQ managing director Sam Riggall said:

    We have persisted for a long time to make inroads into the very large Chinese water treatment market.

    As we move towards the proposed demerger of our water business later this year, it is pleasing to see that we have achieved some initial success in that important market as we continue to make good progress on our goal of growing revenues.

    Today’s announcement follows yesterday’s ASX release, in which Clean TeQ reported a new contract award for a water treatment plant upgrade in Oman. That contract is valued at more than $1 million.

    Clean TeQ share price snapshot

    The past 12 months have been good to Clean TeQ shareholders, with shares up 108%. Over that same time, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is up 39%.

    Year-to-date, the Clean TeQ share price is up 4%.

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  • Here’s why the Incannex (ASX:IHL) share price is up 10% today.

    increase in asx medical software share price represented by doctor making excited hands up gesture

    Incannex Healthcare Ltd (ASX: IHL) shares are up again today as the company announced its new CBD-based drug is more effective in treating rheumatoid arthritis than currently available medications.

    The Incannex share price opened nearly 15% higher than yesterday’s close after the news broke. It has since dropped back to 22.5 cents, representing a 9.76% gain for the day so far. 

    Incannex is a pharmaceutical development company working on the commercialisation of medical cannabis and psychedelic medicine therapies.

    Here’s a closer look at what the company announced today.

    Rheumatoid arthritis treatment breakthrough

    The Incannex share price is surging higher today after the company heralded another research program for its new drug IHL-675A following positive results in a pre-clinical study. 

    The company’s latest study found the drug is up to 3.5 times more effective at reducing arthritis than common treatments currently on market.

    Currently, the main treatment for rheumatoid arthritis is hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), marketed as Plaquenil. The company noted long term use of HCQ has been linked to increased cardiovascular mortality.

    Incannex’s new treatment is a combination of cannabidiol (CBD) and HCQ. By combining CBD And HCQ, the amount of HCQ needed to treat arthritis can be reduced up to 10-fold, resulting in fewer side effects for patients.

    In further news boosting the Incannex share price, the new drug also showed potential for treating other types of inflammation. The study demonstrated it to have “potent anti-inflammatory activity” when treating inflammatory lung conditions such as asthma and bronchitis, as well as colitis.

    Incannex plans to market IHL-675A in key global markets, including the United States, Europe, Japan and Israel. It has filed an International Patent Application and plans to pursue US Food and Drug Administration registration, subject to the ongoing success of clinical trials. 

    Commentary from management

    Incannex Healthcare CEO and managing director Joel Latham said IHL-675A has the potential to be a breakthrough in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. He commented:

    Hydroxychloroquine is an established medication for rheumatoid arthritis and IHL-675A has been demonstrated to outperform it at reducing disease severity in an animal model.

    The benefit of the CBD and hydroxychloroquine combination in IHL-675A is potent. The observation that IHL-675A was as effective or better than a standard dose of hydroxychloroquine, even though it contained 90% less drug, is an exciting result for the Company.

    Incannex share price snapshot

    Over the past 12 months, the Incannex share price has risen by more than 460%. The company’s shares are also up by 50% year to date.

    Based on the current Incannex share price, the company has a market capitalisation of around $217 million with approximately 1 billion shares outstanding.

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  • 3 ASX Healthcare shares feeling a little under the weather

    healthcare shares

    Despite the healthcare leading the gains in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) yesterday, there are some healthcare shares that have been out-of-form over the last month.

    It can sometimes be useful to take a look at which shares are bucking a sector-wide trend. This can assist in pinpointing which are valuable opportunities and which could be underperformers.

    In saying that, let’s take a look at 3 ASX healthcare shares that have been sluggish over the past 30 days.

    ASX healthcare shares feeling off

    Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME)

    Shares in the health imaging software provider have now been following a downward trend for nearly a month. Following the announcement of several new contract signings for its software, the company released its 2021 half-year results.

    The company’s results were reasonable with growth across all metrics. However, the market might be apprehensive to buy at these prices due to the founders selling down their holdings following the release. Both Dr. Sam Hupert and Mr. Anthony Hall sold 1 million shares each. This represented 4% of their respective shareholdings.

    The Pro Medicus share price has fallen 6.3% in the last month. Whereas the company’s shares have appreciated by 62% in the past 6 months.

    Volpara Health Technologies (ASX: VHT)

    The Volpara Health share price has been under pressure since February. The New Zealand-based healthcare software provider of breast imaging services has fallen nearly 15% over the last month.

    Despite the company’s revenue growth and expansion through acquisition, this ASX healthcare share has continued to sell-off. Most recently, Volpara announced the signing of its highest value contract to date. The deal with CRA Health is worth US$400,000 per year in annual recurring revenue (ARR) terms.

    It is possible that the market wasn’t overly impressed with the announcement considering CRA Health was acquired by Volpara recently. Hence, the payment from CRA is more so internal money shifting.

    Noxopharm Ltd (ASX: NOX)

    This ASX healthcare share has certainly seen better days. The Noxopharm share price has dropped by 27% in the past month of trading.

    The clinical-stage drug development company has been in a state of decline since it reported half-year results. Being in the early stages of drug development, Noxopharm reported a hefty $6.7 million loss on the bottom line for the half.

    Unfortunately for Noxopharm, this result was released around the time when investors began being more cognisant of valuations. As a result, it appears not even news of the company’s Veyonda drug moving to its final stage of the clinical trial has been able to turnaround the market’s sentiment.

    On a positive note, the Noxopharm share price has gained 106% in the last 6 months. 

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    Mitchell Lawler owns shares of Pro Medicus Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Pro Medicus Ltd. and VOLPARA FPO NZ. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Pro Medicus Ltd. and VOLPARA FPO NZ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Why the Starpharma (ASX:SPL) share price is charging higher today

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    The Starpharma Holdings Limited (ASX: SPL) share price is pushing higher on Tuesday morning.

    At one stage today, the dendrimer products developer’s shares were up as much as 6% to $1.98.

    At the time of writing, Starpharma share price has eased back but remains 1% higher at $1.89.

    Why is the Starpharma share price pushing higher?

    The catalyst for this gain has been the release of a positive announcement this morning relating to its second radiopharmaceutical candidate, DEP HER2-lutetium.

    According to the release, DEP HER2-lutetium achieved potent and durable anticancer activity in a human breast cancer model. The release advises that it demonstrated complete tumour regression, outperforming Herceptin (trastuzumab) labelled with lutetium.

    The study was conducted at University of Queensland’s Centre for Advanced Imaging. It evaluated the anticancer activity of different doses of DEP HER2-lutetium and DEP lutetium. Treatment with either a 1×15 MBq or 2×9 MBq dose of DEP HER2-lutetium showed a potent anti-tumour effect, resulting in complete tumour regression in the BT474 human breast cancer model.

    Positively, all dose regimens of DEP HER2- lutetium were extremely well tolerated. Furthermore, there were no deaths due to treatment or as a result of tumour growth in any treatment group.

    What now?

    Management notes that radiotheranostics is a rapidly developing area of cancer treatment and diagnosis, which has recently generated several high-value deals. Recent deals include the acquisition of Endocyte by Novartis for US$2.1 billion and the acquisition of former ASX listed company Sirtex by CDH Genetech for ~A$1.9 billion.

    Sales in the category are estimated to grow to $12 billion to $15 billion by 2030.

    Starpharma’s CEO, Dr Jackie Fairley, commented: “We and our specialist radiotheranostics clinical advisers are very excited by these latest data. Starpharma now has multiple potential DEP products in the radiopharmaceuticals and radiodiagnostic area. We are delighted to continue working with Professor Kristofer Thurecht at the University of Queensland’s Centre for Advanced Imaging, as well as building strong relationships with radionuclide specialists and clinicians.”

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  • BrainChip (ASX:BRN) share price sinks on shock CEO exit

    Two men react in shock at Evolution share price drop record profit

    The Brainchip Holdings Ltd (ASX: BRN) share price nosedived at market open following the surprise exit from its CEO. At one point, the artificial intelligence technology company’s shares hit as low as 47.5 cents. However, some bargain hunters have swooped in, easing the share price to 51 cents, down 9%.

    What’s driving the BrainChip share price lower?

    The BrainChip share price is deep in the red today as investors weigh up the company’s latest update.

    According to this morning’s release, the BrainChip board has mutually decided to terminate the managing director and CEO, Louis DiNardo, from his post. While no reason was stated for the abrupt exit, the decision was made with immediate effect, concerning shareholders. The company said that Mr. DiNardo was leaving to ‘pursue other interests’.

    In a bid to quickly fill the hole left, the board has appointed Peter van der Made as the new interim CEO. Mr van der Made is the current chief technology officer, co-founder, and executive director of BrainChip. He was also CEO of the company from October 2015 until September 2016, when Mr. DiNardo took over the reins.

    During the interim period, Mr van der Made will be assisted by his senior management team to fulfil his outstanding duties. This includes Anil Mankar who is co-founder and chief development officer, Ken Scarince, chief financial officer, and Rob Telson, vice president of worldwide sales.

    BrainChip noted that there will be no changes to Mr van der Made’s remuneration package, while he serves the new temporary role. A search is currently underway to find a permanent replacement.

    To ensure a smooth transition process, Mr. DiNardo will move into a 12-month part-time role with BrainChip, supporting Mr van der Made.

    Management commentary

    BrainChip non-executive chair Mr. Emmanuel Hernandez commented:

    On behalf of the Board and the employees of Brainchip, we thank Lou for his years of service to Brainchip and for taking us from concept to silicon. We wish him the best in his future endeavours.

    Mr. van der Made went on to add:

    I also want to thank Lou for leading us to this point. I am honoured to lead our team during this interim period, while the Board commences an expeditious search for our next seasoned Chief Executive Officer, to further advance the commercialization of our Akida technology and strategy for the future.

    Despite today’s fall, the BrainChip share price has gained more than 1,500% since this time last year.

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    Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

    The post BrainChip (ASX:BRN) share price sinks on shock CEO exit appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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