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Some Australian wheat exporters have made the unusual decision to hold back from selling grain to China, even though demand from the world’s second largest economy has increased.
“Obviously China is a big market but no one in their right mind would be selling to them and putting new business into that market because of what is happening with barley and other agricultural commodities,” Brett Donoghue, export manager of New South Wales-based grain marketer Agracom, told Reuters.
According to the Reuters article, a Chinese buyer who declined to be identified said China usually buys Australian wheat in the fourth quarter for shipment in January. But Chinese officials gave early warning the country would strengthen inspections on Australian wheat shipments, raising concerns of grain exports being rejected or stranded in China.
As highlighted in the Reuters report, although China is the world’s top wheat producer, it does not produce enough high quality low-gluten wheat to meet demand. Therefore China turns to Australian wheat to produce the flour used in the white, fluffy cakes that have become popular with the country’s middle-class community.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences — the research arm of the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment — released its Agricultural forecasts and outlook report in December. Chinese grain consumption is expected to increase by 2% to 302 million tonnes in 2021, according to the report.
ASX-listed grain handler Graincorp is an agribusiness operating in more than 30 countries. It reports that its exports to China have not been disrupted by recent tensions between Australia and China.
Graincorp CEO Robert Spurway told the Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) the company had very close ties with its Chinese customers and its grain was competitively priced in most markets, which acted as a natural hedge against volatility in the Chinese or any other export market.
With Graincorp seeing a good demand across the globe for wheat and other grain products, the company has implemented a global diversification strategy to mitigate geopolitical risks. Graincorp has almost doubled the number of its export markets to more than 50 over the past year.
“The company has moved from somewhere in the order of 30 markets 12 months ago, to more than 50 as we sit here today, and over 340 high quality customers. We have done a good job at broadening the number of markets we trade with and the size of our customer base,” said Robert Spurway (as quoted by SMH).
The Graincorp share price has increased by 17.2% to $4.43, year-to-date.
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Australia’s top brokers have been busy adjusting their estimates and recommendations again, leading to the release of a large number of broker notes this week.
Three broker buy ratings that have caught my eye are summarised below. Here’s why brokers think these ASX shares are in the buy zone:
According to a note out of UBS, its analysts have retained their buy rating and $44.00 price target on this artificial intelligence services company’s shares. This is despite the release of a trading update by Appen this week which revealed that it will fall well short of its guidance this year due to a weaker than expected fourth quarter. While this is disappointing, the broker expects Appen to bounce back strongly in FY 2021 when COVID headwinds ease. The Appen share price is trading at $25.48 this afternoon.
A note out of Citi reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating and $40.60 price target on this gaming technology company’s shares. The broker notes that Aristocrat has launched its Doom Tower game from the RAID Shadow Legends series. It has been pleased with the long-awaited release and notes that gamers have responded positively to it. It expects this to be a boost to its Digital revenues in FY 2021. The Aristocrat Leisure share price is fetching $30.01 on Friday.
Analysts at Macquarie have retained their outperform rating and $46.00 price target on this mining giant’s shares. The broker has upgraded its iron ore forecasts and believes there could be significant upside should prices remain at spot prices for longer than expected. As things stand, Macquarie believes BHP is well-placed to deliver generous dividends over the near term. It is forecasting a ~$3.09 per share dividend in FY 2021 and a $2.78 per share dividend in FY 2022. Based on the current BHP share price of $42.93, this represents fully franked 7.2% and 6.5% yields.
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James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Appen Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.
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ASX mining stocks may be surging ahead, but UBS thinks some have run ahead of fundamentals and have downgraded the stocks.
The S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO) dipped 0.4% during lunch time trade although ASX miners are bucking the trend as another surge in the iron ore price boosted the sector.
The Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) jumped 2.1% to a new record high of $22.98. The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price and Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) share price aren’t far behind with gains of over 1% each.
There’re reasons to think that ASX iron ore miners can build on gains as the iron ore market is likely to stay tight through 2021.
But the same can’t be said for some base metal miners after their big share price rally.
“Optimism toward a global economic recovery in 2021 and rising EV [electric vehicle] penetration have driven very strong share price performance for our industrial metals coverage,” said UBS.
“While we remain positive on the commodity price outlook, strategic position, project execution and operating performance, we think in many cases these factors are now priced in.”
Worries about overstretched valuations prompted the broker to cut its recommendation on three outperforming ASX miners to “neutral” from “buy”.
The OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL) share price is one of the three as it’s trading at a more than 10-year high of $19.
Another is the Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) share price as it’s gained around 70% since the start of calendar 2020.
The third downgrader is the Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) share price. UBS noted that the stock has rerated strongly following the final investment decision at T3. Like the other two stocks, the SFR share price is trading inline with the broker’s valuation and the risk-reward is balanced.
But this doesn’t mean there aren’t buying opportunities in the sector. The IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) share price is UBS’ top mining pick even as shares in the nickel and lithium miner surged 23.8% to $6.29 in afternoon trade.
“IGO is trading at the largest discount to our NPV in our industrial metals coverage and is our top pick,” added the broker.
“The strategic move to buy into Greenbushes lithium and sell Tropicana might drive renewed interest in its exposure to electric vehicles.”
UBS’ other key picks in the sector are gold miners. Importantly, these ASX gold miners offer production growth, quality assets and strong free cash flows.
The gold stocks the broker is urging you to buy are the SSR Mining Inc CDI (ASX: SSR) share price, Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM) share price and Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX: SAR) share price.
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Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of BHP Billiton Limited, Lynas Limited, Newcrest Mining Limited, OZ Minerals Limited, and Rio Tinto Ltd. Connect with me on Twitter @brenlau.
The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.
Motley Fool contributor BrenLau owns shares of BHP Billiton Limited, Lynas Limited, Newcrest Mining Limited, OZ Minerals Limited, and Rio Tinto Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.
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The iCandy Interactive Ltd (ASX: ICI) share price is surging 6.7% higher today after the company announced its game Masketeers reached $1 million in revenue. The news sent the iCandy share price flying nearly 17% higher to 17.5 cents before a retracement to its current level of 16 cents.
Shares in the online gaming developer have also soared in recent months, gaining 700% since the start of September.
Just after market open this morning, iCandy announced that its “smash-hit” game Masketeers has reached the milestone level of revenue. In the process, the game has also become the fastest in iCandy’s history to reach the $1 million mark, taking only 63 days.
This easily surpassed the 9 month record the company’s previous game took to reach the same level.
It’s worth noting that the Masketeers revenue was not reflected in the company’s most recent half yearly report and will be added to iCandy’s next full year report. This is relevant as the company is now on target to smash past its previous annual revenue total of $2.2 million. As of its most recent half yearly report, iCandy’s revenue stood at $1.03 million. In today’s update the company advised that:
As such iCandy’s half-year revenues and Masketeer’s revenues for its current financial year would surpass prior financial year’s revenues, before revenues from other games in the second half of the current financial year.
With Masketeers currently only available in English, iCandy is aiming to continue its success by translating the game into more languages. Masketeers is currently available in over 70 countries.
To this end, the company will continue with its plans to role out the game into China as management sees this market as particularly lucrative. China recorded over US$36.5 billion in gaming revenue in 2019.
Furthermore, with COVID-19 providing structural tailwinds (more people staying home), the company plans to double marketing spend to capitalise on arising opportunities.
It will be interesting to watch how the iCandy share price performs as the company’s expansion plans roll out.
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Motley Fool contributor Daniel Ewing has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.
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The Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd (ASX: VUL) share price rocketed up 20% to a new all-time high of $2.83 in early trade today. This comes after the lithium producer announced new regulations from the European Commission into lithium-ion battery production.
While the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is down 0.17% at 6,905 points, the Vulcan share price is breaking new ground, currently trading up 15.3% at $2.71.
As global attention turns toward climate change, the European Commission has proposed new mandatory requirements on carbon footprints from lithium miners. Vulcan says this will complement the company’s aim to become the world’s first zero carbon lithium producer.
From 1 January, 2026, all lithium-ion batteries in Europe will include a carbon intensity performance class label. Following the change, if companies do not meet the maximum carbon footprint threshold, they will not be able to operate in Europe. The ban will come into effect from 1 July 2027.
In light of this, manufacturers will have to demonstrate to authorities that the raw materials sourced, are done so in an environmentally friendly way. This will be conducted through a third party which will use a digital passport tracking of the battery materials used in each battery product.
Vulcan CEO Francis Wedin welcomed the European Commission stance, saying it was “a major endorsement of Vulcan’s Zero Carbon Lithium strategy”:
Decarbonisation, responsibly sourced lithium and renewable energy are the foundation of Vulcan.
Our early adoption of this strategy gained EU support and puts us at the forefront of the lithium sector where companies will have to adapt to the rapidly evolving global aims of decarbonisation in the production process and responsibly sourced materials. With our PFS due shortly we go into 2021 knowing that our project, process and product, to produce battery quality lithium hydroxide for electric vehicles in Europe for the European market with net zero carbon footprint, will be strongly supported by EU regulations.
We are the only lithium project globally which is being developed to have a zero-carbon footprint, we have the largest lithium resource in Europe and own the trademark Zero Carbon Lithium which can be licenced to battery manufacturers and OEMs using our product.
The Vulcan share price has been on an upward trajectory over the past year. Shareholders who bought into the company at the start of the year would be sitting on gains of more than 1,800%. That means if you invested $1,000 in January, the value of your shares would now be worth more than $18,000.
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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.
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There are a wide range of cheap shares available to buy even after many companies have experienced a rally following the stock market crash.
Certainly, there are risks ahead that may account for lower valuations. However, over the long run, the performance of today’s undervalued shares could be relatively strong.
As such, they may offer a superior risk/reward outlook than popular assets such as gold and Bitcoin.
The idea of buying cheap shares may currently be viewed as less attractive by some investors because of the 2020 stock market crash. Certainly, a recovery has taken place over recent months. However, the potential for stock markets to fall quickly is likely to remain at the forefront of many investors’ minds over the coming months.
This may be a reason why some companies have low valuations at the present time. Weak investor sentiment, coupled with uncertain near-term operating conditions, means that many sectors contain cheap stocks. In some cases, their low valuations are deserved. But, in others, they have solid financial positions and the potential to expand their competitive advantages over the long term. This may mean that as well as being cheap shares, they have valuations that do not take into account their future prospects.
Today’s cheap shares could offer sound recovery prospects. The track record of the stock market shows that it has always experienced cycles. At times, this has meant sharp declines in a short space of time, such as that experienced in the 2020 stock market crash.
However, its overall trajectory has been an upward one in recent decades. Therefore, it seems likely that stock prices will move higher over the long run. Investors who use a buy-and-hold strategy on a diverse portfolio of stocks should benefit from an upward trend over the coming years.
Of course, cheap shares may offer greater scope for capital growth than the rest of the stock market. They may stand to benefit most from factors such as an improving economic outlook and stronger investor sentiment. Therefore, their prospects may be relatively positive as a recovery from the stock market crash likely continues.
Cheap shares may offer higher returns than gold or Bitcoin. Both assets have risen in price during the course of 2020, while many stocks have failed to do likewise. In gold’s case, its price may now factor in an uncertain economic environment and low interest rates. As a result, there may be limited scope for further growth.
Bitcoin’s value is very difficult to quantify because it lacks fundamentals. Therefore, its current price may lack a margin of safety. Over time, this could lead to relatively disappointing performance versus a portfolio oof today’s undervalued stocks.
When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*
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Motley Fool contributor Peter Stephens has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.
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In afternoon trade the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) looks set to end the week with a decline. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is down 0.3% to 6,663.3 points.
Four shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are dropping lower:
The CSL share price is down 3% to $292.02. Investors have been selling the biotech giant’s shares after it announced the surprise termination of its COVID-19 vaccine trial. Although the phase 1 trial showed that the vaccine caused a robust response towards the virus, it was also causing a false positive on a range of HIV assays. This was due to its molecular clamp, which interferes with certain HIV diagnostic assays. Unfortunately, this means it would have required significant changes to well-established HIV testing procedures to accommodate the rollout of the vaccine.
The Lovisa share price has fallen 6.5% to $10.75 despite there being no news out of the fashion jewellery company. However, prior to today, the Lovisa share price was up 67% over the last six months. This may have led to some investors taking a bit of profit off the table today.
The Lynas share price has dropped almost 3% to $3.90. This appears to have been driven by a broker note out of UBS this morning. According to the note, the broker has downgraded the rare earths producer’s shares to a neutral rating with a $4.30 price target. UBS made the move largely on valuation grounds after a very strong gain over the last few months. It believes its shares are fully valued now.
The Syrah share price has sunk 9.5% lower to 92 cents after returning from a trading halt. The graphite producer’s shares have come under pressure after completing a fully underwritten placement. Syrah has raised approximately $56 million (US$42 million) through a placement to professional and sophisticated investors at a 11.5% discount of 90 cents. These funds will be used partly to progress its natural graphite Active Anode Material (AAM) facility in the United States towards a final investment decision for the construction of a 10ktpa AAM plant.
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James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of CSL Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.
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The THC Global Group Ltd (ASX: THC) share price is climbing today, on news the company is fine tuning its strategy to meet potential demand in the medicinal cannabis industry.
In early trade today, the THC Global share price surged up to 29.5 cents, before retreating its current price of 28 cents, up 1.8%.
THC Global advised that management had visited its Southport facility in southeast Queensland to review the facility’s capabilities to ramp up manufacturing. The company’s Southport facility is one of the largest pharmaceutical cannabis manufacturing facilities in the world.
THC Global also says that it has made progress in obtaining the license to allow Southport to warehouse, store and distribute S4 and S8 medicines not manufactured by the company. In Australia, S4 drugs relate to “restricted substances”, whereas S8 refers to “drugs of addiction”.
In addition, the company also applying to the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) for approval of additional finished dosage forms to be produced at the Southport facility. The company currently has approval for oils, and is expected to add inhalation vapes, capsules, suppositories and ovules, and creams to its TGA licence.
Earlier this year, THC Global revealed several major strategic shifts in order to carve a bigger slice of the healthcare and pharmaceutical markets.
This includes a rebranding of the name THC to Epsilon Healthcare. Shareholders will be required to approve the change at an extraordinary general meeting later this month.
The company also said it was transitioning to toll manufacturing, which involves contract manufacturing of high value pharmaceuticals for third parties.
It recently announced the launch of the Medimar platform, which was designed as an end-to-end e-commerce vehicle for medicinal cannabis in Australia, using the Southport facility as a distribution hub.
The medicinal cannabis industry has recently been boosted by landmark rulings in the United States, as well as at the United Nations (UN).
Last week, the US House of Representatives passed a bill to decriminalise cannabis, clearing the way to erase non-violent federal marijuana convictions. That vote followed an earlier ruling at the UN, which said that cannabis would now be reclassified as a Schedule I substance – the least restrictive drug classification.
The THC Global share price has lost 29% in 2020, and its current share price is still a long way off from the 52-week high of 46 cents achieved in June this year.
The company commands a market cap of $49 million.
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Motley Fool contributor Eddy Sunarto has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.
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Element 25 Ltd (ASX: E25) shares leapt 2% higher on opening before giving back those gains in late morning trade. At the time of writing the Element 25 share price is down 1.5% to $1.58.
This comes following a progress report on its Butcherbird Manganese Project in Western Australia, released to the ASX this morning.
Element 25 shareholders have enjoyed a truly monumental year. Despite the shares tumbling 44% from 19 February through to 23 March during the wider COVID-19 market rout, the Element 25 share price is up a stellar 829% in 2020.
By comparison the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is up just over 1%.
In this morning’s progress update, Element 25 reported it had obtained environmental approvals for its 100% owned Butcherbird Project.
Western Australia’s state government departments have given the green light to the company’s Approval and Mining Proposal, and the State Mining Engineer has also provided its permission. These were the last hurdles Element 25 needed to clear before commencing construction at Butcherbird.
The company reported it plans to commence immediately, in line with its plans for first production in the first quarter of FY2021.
According to Element 25, Butcherbird is Australia’s largest onshore manganese deposit, with some 260 million tonnes of manganese ore in an area with high end local infrastructure.
The company recently finished a pre-feasibility study on developing the deposit in order to produce manganese concentrate for export to generate early cash flow with “a modest capital requirement”.
Commenting on the regulatory approvals, Element 25 managing director Justin Brown said:
This is the culmination of an extensive environmental assessment and community consultation process and it allows E25 to continue to rapidly progress its mine development and construction plans. The company has had an accelerated development timeline in place form the start and the fact that it continues to deliver the project on time and on budget is a testament to the dedication of the E25 team.
Element 25 is engaged in the acquisition and exploration of metal properties in Australia. Its projects include Holleton, Butcherbird Manganese, Butcherbird Copper, Green Dam, Mount Padbury, and Pinnacles Cobalt/Nickel.
Element 25 shares first began trading on the ASX in November 2006. Based on the current Element 25 share price, the company has a market capitalisation of around $220 million.
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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.
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