• An insider just bought $355,000 worth of Westpac (ASX:WBC) shares

    Westpac

    Insider buying is generally seen as a bullish indicator by investors.

    After all, few people should know a company better than its own directors. So, if they have the confidence to buy shares, it could be a sign that things are going well and they expect them to appreciate in value.

    One company which has just revealed some significant insider buying is Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC).

    According to a change of director’s interest notice, the banking giant’s new chairman, John McFarlane, has been adding to his holding this month.

    What did the notice reveal?

    The notice shows that Mr McFarlane was making purchases through on-market trades between 3 November and 10 November.

    In total, the company’s chairman picked up 20,000 shares over the seven days, which has tripled his holding to a total of 30,000 shares.

    Mr McFarlane paid a total of approximately $355,000 for the shares, which equates to an average price of $17.75 per share.

    This certainly has proven to be a good move by the chairman. The Westpac share price is currently trading at $18.68, which is up 5.2% from the average price paid for these shares.

    Not the only buyer.

    Westpac’s chairman wasn’t the only one buying shares last week.

    As I mentioned here yesterday, Australia’s oldest bank was very popular with retail investors last week.

    CommSec investors were trading Westpac shares following its full year results release. So much so, the bank accounted for 1.7% of trades on the brokerage platform.

    The vast majority of these trades came from the buy side, which appears to be an indication that they believe the worst is now behind the bank.

    One broker that would agree is Morgans. Last week it put an add rating and $21.50 price target on Westpac’s shares. This price target implies potential upside of 15% over the next 12 months excluding dividends.

    Man who said buy Kogan shares at $3.63 says buy these 3 ASX stocks now

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    In this FREE STOCK REPORT, Scott just revealed what he believes are the 3 ASX stocks for the post COVID world that investors should buy right now while they still can. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks these could really go gangbusters as we move into ‘the new normal’.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro owns shares of Westpac Banking. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • These ASX dividend shares offer 4.5%+ dividend yields

    Close up of hands holding US bank notes

    Times really are hard for income investors following a series of cash rate cuts over the last few years.

    At present, a 60-month term deposit from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) will yield just 0.70% per annum on amounts of $50,000 or greater.

    This means that a $50,000 investment will provide investors with interest of just $350 per year.

    The good news is that the Australian share market is home to a large number of companies that offer far greater yields for investors.

    Two ASX dividend shares with yields above 4.5% are listed below:

    BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

    This mining giant is the owner of a collection of world class, low cost assets which are generating significant free cash flows. This is certainly the case at the moment thanks to high iron ore and copper prices. And given the company’s penchant for returning excess free cash flow to shareholders, this bodes well for dividends in FY 2021.

    In fact, analysts at Macquarie are forecasting that BHP will pay a ~$2.80 per share fully franked dividend this year. Based on the current BHP share price, this would mean a very generous 7.8% dividend yield.

    Rural Funds Group (ASX: RFF)

    Rural Funds is an agriculture-focused property group that owns a large number of properties across several agricultural sectors. These high quality properties are leased on long term agreements to some of the biggest operators in the industry such as wine giant Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE). At the end of FY 2020, Rural Funds had a weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 10.9 years.

    And with these leases having rental increases built into them, the company has great visibility on its future earnings. This means it can provide distribution guidance to investors even during these volatile times. In FY 2021 the company intends to increase its distribution to 11.28 cents per share. Based on the current Rural Funds share price, this works out to be a 4.6% yield.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended RURALFUNDS STAPLED and Treasury Wine Estates Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

    On Tuesday the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) was on form again after COVID-19 vaccine news gave investor sentiment a major boost. The benchmark index rose 0.65% to 6,340.5 points.

    Will the market be able to build on this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

    ASX 200 expected to rise.

    The Australian share market is expected to continue its positive run on Wednesday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 63 points or 1% higher. This is despite a mixed night of trade on Wall Street which late on sees the Dow Jones up 0.7%, the S&P 500 down 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 1.1% lower.

    Commonwealth Bank Q1 update.

    The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price will be on watch today when the banking giant releases its first quarter update. In addition to its financial result, the bank is likely to release an update on its COVID-19 temporary loan repayment deferral data. Last month Commonwealth Bank revealed that approximately 93,000 home loans remained in deferral, with 52,000 of these due to expire and exit in October.

    Oil prices continue to rise.

    Energy producers including Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Oil Search Limited (ASX: OSH) could be on the move again today after oil prices continued to rise. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price climbed 2.2% higher to US$41.17 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 2.3% to US$43.38 a barrel. The prospect of a COVID-19 vaccine being released soon has given oil prices a boost.

    Gold price rebounds.

    Gold miners such as Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a better day on Wednesday after the gold price rebounded. According to CNBC, the spot gold price has risen 1.1% to US$1,875.40 an ounce.

    Annual general meetings.

    Another group of shares are due to hold their virtual annual general meetings on Wednesday and could provide trading updates. These include Computershare Limited (ASX: CPU), Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) and Newcrest Mining.

    Man who said buy Kogan shares at $3.63 says buy these 3 ASX stocks now

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    In this FREE STOCK REPORT, Scott just revealed what he believes are the 3 ASX stocks for the post COVID world that investors should buy right now while they still can. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks these could really go gangbusters as we move into ‘the new normal’.

    *Returns as of 6/8/2020

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Flight Centre (ASX:FLT) share price on watch amid notes offering and debt refinancing

    flight centre share price

    The Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) share price will be one to watch on Wednesday after the release of a late announcement.

    What did Flight Centre announce?

    This afternoon the travel agent giant announced that it has launched an offering of $400 million senior unsecured convertible notes due 2027, which are convertible into fully paid ordinary shares.

    In addition to this, the company has entered into commitment letters with its existing bank lenders for the refinancing of its existing debt facilities. This is conditional on the completion of the notes offering.

    As part of the refinancing, the banks will waive Flight Centre’s compliance with its existing operating leverage ratio, fixed charges ratio, and shareholder funds ratio covenants until 31 December 2022. After which, its covenants will be calculated based on the six month period from 1 July 2022 to 31 December 2022.

    If the offering completes successfully, it will mean Flight Centre’s total liquidity at 30 September 2020 on a pro-forma basis increases to $1.3 billion and its total cash and cash equivalents increase to $2 billion.

    Why did Flight Centre make this move?

    Flight Centre’s Managing Director, Graham Turner, expects the capital management initiatives to substantially enhance its funding position and support it in the event of a prolonged downturn.

    Mr Turner commented: “The capital management initiatives we are taking today substantially enhance our funding position with longer tenor, extended covenant relief and greater liquidity. While trading conditions continue to improve, we continue to reduce our cost base and we remain prepared for almost all scenarios including a prolonged downturn.”

    “We are seeing gradual improvement in revenue trends albeit from a modest level and importantly, we continue to win key customers in our corporate business notwithstanding the difficult conditions,” he added.

    The managing director also spoke about the recent easing of lockdowns in Victoria and today’s COVID-19 vaccine news.

    He said: “The recent easing of lock-down restrictions in Australia, our largest market, gives us confidence of further improvement in the near term. While we remain cautious given the environment in the Northern Hemisphere, we welcome the recent news of Pfizer’s positive COVID-19 vaccination trial data and look forward to further developments, given their potential to fast-track the recovery in travel activity.”

    Man who said buy Kogan shares at $3.63 says buy these 3 ASX stocks now

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Virgin shareholders left high and dry

    Poor shareholders represented by disgruntled man turning out empty pockets

    Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (formerly of the ticker symbol VAH) was one of the most high-profile casualties of the coronavirus pandemic that gripped the world in 2020.

    It is a well-accepted fact that the global pandemic has been disastrous for every airline on the planet. As we revealed back in May, air travel plummeted by 99% in April 2020 compared with April 2019.

    It’s almost literally impossible to travel overseas even today, with only Australian citizens and residents permitted to fly home. In addition, you need a pretty good reason to be permitted flight out of Australia as well. The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade currently maintains a ‘travel ban’ on all international destinations. That still includes New Zealand incidentally. Further, domestic travel has had tight restrictions surrounding it for most of 2020 so far. Victoria has been a no-go zone for months now, whereas Queensland, Tasmania and Western Australia have effectively ‘shut their borders’ for most of the year.

    All of these events have proven absolutely terrible for all airlines, and in Australia, it hit both Virgin and Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) hard. Qantas has managed to hang on, with the help of some government assistance and massive cost cutting. But unfortunately, we can’t say the same for Virgin.

    Out with the old, in with the new for Virgin

    Virgin went into administration in April. It was then sold to United States-based private equity firm Bain Capital in October for approximately $3.5 billion.

    Devastated shareholders had hoped to recoup at least some of their losses. But reporting in today’s Australian Financial Review (AFR) reveals these hopes have been effectively dashed.

    According to the AFR, a Federal Court has given the green light to Virgin’s administrators to transfer shares of Virgin to the new owner Bain. This transfer will be completed “without reimbursement to investors”. The AFR reports that some investors:

    …chose to fight this at a Federal Court hearing on Tuesday, arguing there should be at least some residual value assigned to the shares given Virgin’s assets like the Velocity Frequent Flyer scheme. They also claimed there was not enough time to fully understand a 700-page independent report on the sale distributed by administrators to shareholders late last month.

    But this view was thrown out of court, and has resulted in former Virgin shareholders receiving essentially nothing but regret for their shares. The AFR reports, however, that “secured creditors and employees will get all of their money back. While unsecured creditors will get between 9 cents to 13 cents in the dollar”.

    No doubt a disappointing end for Virgin investors in what has been a disastrous year to hold ASX travel shares.

    These 3 stocks could be the next big movers in 2020

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    In this FREE STOCK REPORT, Scott just revealed what he believes are the 3 ASX stocks for the post COVID world that investors should buy right now while they still can. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks these could really go gangbusters as we move into ‘the new normal’.

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • 3 steps to find top dividend stocks to buy in November 2020

    3 asx shares to buy depicted by man holding up hand with 3 fingers up

    Low interest rates mean that dividend stocks may become increasingly popular among investors. In many cases, they offer significantly higher returns than other income-producing assets such as bonds and cash.

    However, there is more to successful dividend investing than simply buying high-yielding stocks. Considering a company’s financial position, long-term outlook and the affordability of its dividends could lead to less risk and higher returns.

    Buying dividend stocks with affordable payouts

    Purchasing dividend stocks with high yields is of little use to an investor if they are unaffordable. As such, it is crucial to check that a company can pay its dividends – even if there is a period of weaker operating conditions ahead.

    Assessing a company’s dividend affordability can be done through comparing its net profit to its shareholder payouts. Dividing net profit by dividends paid shows how many times a company could have made its shareholder payouts. A figure of more than one means that it had headroom when doing so. This may become an increasingly valuable requirement due to the uncertain economic outlook that could cause profitability across a wide range of sectors to come under pressure.

    Financial strength

    Dividend stocks with solid financial positions may mean less risk for income investors. For example, a company that has a strong balance sheet with modest debt may be better able to survive an uncertain economic period. It may not need to reduce dividends to service debt or pay operating expenses. This may result in a more reliable dividend for investors, as well as a stronger share price performance.

    Analysing a company’s financial position can be undertaken via its investor updates and annual reports. They paint a picture of its financial standing that can be used to assess its risks. By looking at a longer period of updates, it may be possible to gauge how a company’s strategy is impacting on its financial position. This may provide income investors with a greater insight into how the company is run, and how its dividends could change in future.

    Long-term growth outlook

    Dividend stocks can become increasingly attractive if they are able to raise shareholder payouts at a fast pace. As such, assessing a company’s long-term profit growth outlook could be a means of identifying the most attractive income investing opportunities.

    Companies that have the capacity to adapt to changing consumer tastes may prove to be more successful in the long run. Similarly, companies with wide economic moats may face fewer challenges during economic turmoil and may also be able to generate higher profit growth in a period of economic growth.

    Clearly, dividend stocks can experience unforeseen difficulties. Therefore, it is crucial to buy a diverse range of companies within a portfolio so that risk is spread among a broad spectrum of regions and sectors. This can lead to a more reliable passive income and higher returns in the long run.

    These Dividend Stocks Could Be Your Next Cash Kings (FREE REPORT)

    Motley Fool Australia’s Dividend experts recently released a brand-new FREE report revealing 3 dividend stocks with JUICY franked dividends that could keep paying you meaty dividends for years to come.

    Our team of investors think these 3 dividend stocks should be a ‘must consider’ for any savvy dividend investor. But more importantly, could potentially make Australian investors a heap of passive income.

    Don’t miss out! Simply click the link below to grab your free copy and discover these 3 high conviction stocks now.

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    Motley Fool contributor Peter Stephens has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why is the Recce (ASX:RCE) share price soaring 14%?

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    The Recce Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: RCE) share price has been soaring up today. Recce shares jumped up more than 14% on news that the company has seen encouraging results in the treatment against the COVID-19 virus. The release comes on the same day that Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) announced its vaccine success.

    The Recce share price has risen 14.21% at the time of writing, vaulting its shares to $1.08.

    What does Recce do?

    Recce is involved in drug discovery and development business. It aims to commercialise a new class of synthetic antibiotics that target a wide range of diseases to address the global health challenge of antibiotic-resistant superbugs.

    The group operates solely in research and development, and is located in both Australia and the United States.

    COVID-19 trial success

    Today the Recce share price is flying on the news that it saw encouraging results of its primary drug, Recce 327 against COVID-19. R327, a synthetic anti-infective drug, showed encouraging efficacy in an in-vitro screening assay against the virus.

    FDA-approved R327 has traditionally been developed for the treatment of blood infections and sepsis. Infections that are derived from E. coli and S. aureus bacteria. However, earlier this year it was announced that the drug may also be effective against COVID-19.

    As the drug showed encouraging inhibition against the virus it is now advancing to Stage 1b. This stage will be under way in near weeks.

    Whilst the company is delighted by the results, it notes that preliminary and further testing must be completed before the drug can be announced as fully effective.

    Recce non-executive chair John Prendergast was pleased, saying:

    We’re highly encouraged by the results from this study, which indicate anti-viral activity of R327 and, in particular, highlight the potential potency of our lead candidate against SARS-CoV-2 . We are interested in seeing the next stage and look forward to continuing research on the effectiveness of R327 with the team at the Doherty Institute.

    Man who said buy Kogan shares at $3.63 says buy these 3 ASX stocks now

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    In this FREE STOCK REPORT, Scott just revealed what he believes are the 3 ASX stocks for the post COVID world that investors should buy right now while they still can. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks these could really go gangbusters as we move into ‘the new normal’.

    *Returns as of 6/8/2020

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    Motley Fool contributor Daniel Ewing has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Charter Hall REIT (ASX:CQR) gains 5% on vaccine news, AGM

    rising asx retail shares and REIT prices represented by woman on escalator carrying shopping bags

    Australian listed property trust Charter Hall Retail REIT (ASX: CQR) has announced some promising metrics today at its annual general meeting (AGM) to unit holders. The unit price of this real estate investment trust (REIT) rose by 5.5% today to $3.84 amid a broader rise in the property sector of the ASX.

    Highlights of today’s AGM

    Charter Hall Retail REIT reported some decent results for FY20 despite pandemic lockdowns and various restrictions. Highlights included:

    • Operating earnings of $142 million, up 11.5% from the previous financial year.
    • Operating earnings per unit of 30.56 cents, up 1.8%.
    • Distribution per unit of 24.52 cents, up 14.7%.
    • Property portfolio value of $3,325 million, up 9.1%.

    The company also advised that in light of current cash collection levels, it expects the first half distribution to be approximately 10.7 cents per unit. Assuming there are no further lockdown or government imposed trading restrictions, Charter Hall expects that the second half distribution will be greater than the first half distribution

    The REIT also provided a preview of its operational performance so far in FY21. It says that supermarket sales growth for the quarter increased to 8.9%, reflecting continued strength of in-home consumption. Occupancy remains stable at 97.3% as 96% of stores were still open nationally at the end of September. 

    What is Charter Hall Retail REIT?

    Charter Hall Retail REIT owns an Australian portfolio of roughly 50 shopping centres, 225 service stations leased to the Australian arm of BP plc (NYSE: BP), and a distribution centre leased to Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL). It also counts Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) and Aldi as its customers. Rent is of course Charter Hall Retail REIT’s dominant revenue driver.

    In July 2020, the REIT acquired a stake in a Coles distribution centre with 14 years remaining on the lease and fixed annual rental uplifts of 2.75%. Woolworths remains the company’s largest tenant, representing 18% of its income. Charter Hall Retail REIT commands around a 5% market share of Australia’s retail space shopping centres. 

    How has Charter Hall Retail REIT performed in 2020?

    The unit price of the REIT began the year trading at $4.30 before slumping to $2.80 in March at the onset of the pandemic. It has since recovered to today’s price of $3.84, with a year-to-date decrease of 10.7%. The trust has a market capitalisation of $2.1 billion at today’s price.

    These 3 stocks could be the next big movers in 2020

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    In this FREE STOCK REPORT, Scott just revealed what he believes are the 3 ASX stocks for the post COVID world that investors should buy right now while they still can. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks these could really go gangbusters as we move into ‘the new normal’.

    *Returns as of 6/8/2020

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    Motley Fool contributor Eddy Sunarto has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of COLESGROUP DEF SET and Woolworths Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • 2 ASX mid cap shares that are growing strongly

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    The mid cap side of the Australian share market is home to a number of companies that have been growing strongly over the last few years.

    Two that have achieved this are listed below. Here’s what you need to know about them:

    Adore Beauty Group Limited (ASX: ABY)

    Adore Beauty is a recently listed $600 million beauty retailer. It was created in a garage in Melbourne 20 years ago and now has over 590,000 Active Customers across the ANZ region purchasing third-party beauty and personal care products from its website. This calendar year the company is expecting to generate revenue of $158.2 million, this will be an increase of 76% on the prior corresponding period. Also expected to grow strongly is its net profit, which is forecast to increase 150% year on year to $3.5 million.

    This is still only scratching at the surface of a beauty and personal care products market estimated to be worth $10.9 billion in 2019 according to Frost & Sullivan. Management has its eyes on winning a greater slice of this market and intends use the funds it raised from its IPO to support its growth strategy and future growth opportunities. 

    Jumbo Interactive (ASX: JIN)

    Jumbo Interactive is a $788 million online lottery ticket seller and the operator of the Oz Lotteries website. At present the company generates the majority of its revenue from the Oz Lotteries website, but it is far from a one-trick pony. Jumbo also has a growing software-as-a-service (SaaS) business – Powered by Jumbo.

    Management expects its Powered by Jumbo SaaS business to be the key driver of growth in the future. It estimates that it has a US$303 billion global total addressable market, with only 7% of this market online at the moment.

    One broker that is confident on its future is Goldman Sachs. Yesterday it initiated coverage on the company with a buy rating. It is forecasting a 16% compound annual growth rate for Jumbo’s revenue over the next three years. This is expected to be supported by the lottery industry reaching an inflection point in digital penetration and the structural shift to online sales.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

    *Returns as of June 30th

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    James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. recommends Jumbo Interactive Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Jumbo Interactive Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Enjoying your ASX 200 gains? Here’s why you should watch out for January

    Surprised man with binoculars watching the share market go up and down

    The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is having a fabulous time of late, if the numbers are anything to go by.

    Today, the ASX 200 is up 0.70% to 6,340 points, improving on yesterday’s 8-month high. The index is up 4.5% over the past week, 3.35% over the past month, and 16% over the past 6 months. The catalysts for this enjoyable rise? As we outlined this morning, many market commentators are pointing to the combination of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate cut last week (to a new record low of 0.1%), with the more-decisive-than-initially-hoped outcome of last week’s presidential election.

    On the latter, we discussed how various commentators and fund managers are pointing to the ‘nirvana’ outcome of a Democrat in the White House, in combination with divided Democrat/Republican control of congress (America’s parliament). As Magellan Financial Group Ltd‘s (ASX: MFG) Hamish Douglass told us in the Australian Financial Review (AFR), this should ensure political stability, whilst also providing a handbrake on the major reform that Democratic president-elect Joe Biden promised in his campaign (which includes large tax rises for corporations).

    However, it’s this outcome that I’d like to discuss today.

    US Senate elections could move the ASX

    See, the US elections aren’t actually over. Well, the presidential election is. But not the concurrent US senate elections. Yes, most of the Senate elections (the third of the Senate seats that were up for re-election anyway) are over. But not all of them. The Senate elections resulted in the Republican Party winning or holding 50 seats, and the Democrats holding 48. Yet there are 100 seats in the chamber.

    Under a quirk of America’s patchwork electoral laws, the state of Georgia only allows direct re-election if a candidate wins more than 50% of the vote. And, according to separate reporting in the AFR,  in the elections last week, no candidate crossed this threshold in the 2 Georgia senate seats that were up for re-election. That means that Georgia will hold a runoff election for these 2 senate seats in January. These will be both 2 horse races with a Democratic and a Republican candidate.

    Doing some quick maths, if Democrats win both seats up for re-election, both parties will have 50 senate seats. Under the US constitution, the vice-president breaks a 50-50 tie. And as a result of the presidential election last week, Democrat Kamala Harris will become vice-president for 4 years on 20 January 2021, giving Democrats control of the Senate for at least 2 years under this scenario. 

    If this were to play out, suddenly this ‘nirvana’ for investors will vanish, and leave the Democrats in theoretical control of both branches of government. So make sure you watch these elections on 5 January next year. If both of these races go to the Democrats, we could well see a shift in sentiment from the market that’s reportedly already priced in 2 years of divided American government.

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

    The post Enjoying your ASX 200 gains? Here’s why you should watch out for January appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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