• 7 ASX shares to buy for 2021

    hand holding wooden blocks spelling the word buy

    A top portfolio manager has revealed 7 ASX shares that he would go for this year as the world starts the post-COVID era.

    Shaw and Partners portfolio manager James Gerrish is concerned the massive gains seen in 2020 have made investors complacent.

    “The market’s up 40%. [Individual] stocks are up 50%, 100% in some cases. So that’s a concern that I have — that people think it’s all too easy,” he said in a Livewire video.

    “It’s hard in the market to consistently deliver results. So delivering consistently is a really important key for investors out there. That probably will be the area I think you should be careful of going into 2021.”

    Gerrish will be targeting companies that have scored from a structural change during the pandemic, as they will be more resistant to market volatility.

    “The macro backdrop is starting to feed into higher inflationary expectations. From a portfolio positioning point of view, you need to be conscious of that,” he said.

    “There’s areas in the market that really benefit as longer-term interest rates rise, inflationary expectations rise, and the like.”

    Resistant to ‘market noise’

    ASX stocks that meet that criteria, and that Gerrish tips for the coming year, are:

    Gerrish said he ideally would like a company to not be impacted by “external factors happening in the market” or “market noise”. 

    “I want management to be running their companies the best they can, given the conditions they’re operating in. 2020 has seen a lot of uncertainty around that, and those companies that have really dug in and… have come through COVID in pretty good shape I think.”

    Fruit and vegetable producer Costa Group is an example of a business that’s managed the pandemic period competently.

    “The business has now got some really strong tailwinds,” said Gerrish.

    “For a lot of years, it had some really strong headwinds.”

    He likes the miners South 32 and BHP, but mining services is an industry that intrigues him for 2021.

    “I think these are more volatile areas in the market. If you look back — have they handled COVID? Have they been defensive, etc? Probably not,” said Gerrish.

    “But if I think about the companies that I want to be in going forward, and that’s what as investors we’ve got to do, we’ve got to make decisions today on our outlook for tomorrow.”

    Monadelphous and NRW Holdings are his 2 favourite mining services stocks for this year.

    “The infrastructure space, that’s going to be a growth area going into next year as well. So we’ve got LendLease in the portfolio, and we’re looking at Downer EDI to add to the portfolio.”

    Forget what just happened. We think this stock could be Australia’s next MONSTER IPO…

    One little-known Australian IPO has doubled in value since January, and renowned Australian Moonshot stock picker Anirban Mahanti sees a potential millionaire-maker in waiting…

    Because ‘Doc’ Mahanti believes this fast-growing company has all the hallmarks of genuine Moonshot potential, forget ‘buy now pay later’, this stock could be the next hot stock on the ASX.

    Returns as of 6th October 2020

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    Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended COSTA GRP FPO. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Why Costa, Monash IVF, Newcrest, & Xero shares are dropping lower

    shares lower

    The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has failed to follow the lead of US markets and is sinking lower on Monday. In late morning trade the benchmark index is down 0.5% to 6,725.6 points.

    Four shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are dropping lower:

    Costa Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: CGC)

    The Costa share price has dropped 4% to $4.11. This decline appears to have been driven by a broker note out of Citi this morning. According to the note, the broker has downgraded the horticulture company’s shares to a neutral rating with a $4.30 price target. Citi made the move largely on valuation grounds after a strong gain over the last few months.

    Monash IVF Group Ltd (ASX: MVF)

    The Monash IVF share price is down over 2.5% to 73.5 cents. This leading fertility company’s shares have been sold off in recent weeks after it was hit with a class action. These proceedings are in relation to the company’s non-invasive preimplantation genetic screening technology. As things stand, no details have been provided in respect to the amount of damages sought.

    Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM)

    The Newcrest share price has tumbled almost 4.5% lower to $26.10. Investors have been selling Newcrest and other gold miner shares after the price of the precious metal sank lower on Friday. The gold price fell a sizeable 4.1% to US$1,835.40 an ounce. Analysts believe this weakness is attributable to traders giving up on their safe haven trade now that political risks are subsiding in the United States. The S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index is down 4.8% at the time of writing.

    Xero Limited (ASX: XRO)

    The Xero share price is down 3% to $138.30. Investors have been selling Xero and other tech shares on Monday despite US tech shares surging to new highs on Friday night. At the time of writing, the S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX) is down by around 1.5%. This compares to a 2% gain by the tech-focused Nasdaq index on Friday night.

    This Tiny ASX Stock Could Be the Next Afterpay

    One little-known Australian IPO has doubled in value since January, and renowned Australian Moonshot stock picker Anirban Mahanti sees a potential millionaire-maker in waiting…

    Because ‘Doc’ Mahanti believes this fast-growing company has all the hallmarks of genuine Moonshot potential, forget ‘buy now pay later’, this stock could be the next hot stock on the ASX.

    Doc and his team have published a detailed report on this tiny ASX stock. Find out how you can access what could be the NEXT Afterpay today!

    Returns as of 6th October 2020

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    James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Xero. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended COSTA GRP FPO. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Why the Lucapa Diamond (ASX: LOM) share price is sparkling

    falling diamonds representing falling Michael Hill share price

    The Lucapa Diamond Co Ltd (ASX: LOM) share price has had a shiny week, up nearly 3% today and more than 25% in the past 5 days of trading.

    Last week the company discovered the first diamond of over 100 carats at its Lulo alluvial mine in Angola.

    Today, Lucapa announced its first 2021 sale of rough diamonds. Lucapa and its partner, the Government of the Kingdom of Lesotho, sold 4.676 carats of rough diamonds for a total of US$5.6 million.

    At the time of writing, the Lucapa share price is up 2.78% for the day, trading hands at 7.4 cents per share.

    How did the Lucapa share price fare in 2020?

    The Lucapa share price had a disappointing 12-month period, diving over 42%. It took a serious tumble from March 2020 to April 2020 falling from .15 cents at the start of March to closing at 0.4 cents by the end of April. That’s a roughly 73% crash.

    Copping its share of the worldwide business impacts brought on by coronavirus, Lucapa announced on 1 April that a National State of Emergency was declared in the Republic of Angola. The share price dip that ensued didn’t lift back up until July and has continued to hike a bumpy trail since then.

    Acknowledging this blow to the business, Lucapa Managing Director Stephen Wetherall commented today:

    Following a tough 2020, where both of our mines were impacted by the pandemic, our valued teams have shown their resilience and operations have bounced back strongly. The good recoveries at both mines and growing demand leading to strengthening diamond prices has seen a strong start to 2021.

    A roaring one-month come back

    Although the past year was a tough time for the Lucapa share price, Lucapa shares have now jumped over 23% in the past month.

    After announcing the unearthing of the 113-carat white diamond recovered at Lulo last week, the share price popped around 12% in 24-hours and has continued to creep up since.  

    What’s ahead for Lucapa Diamond in 2021?

    Lucapa has secured funding to commission an approximately 45% expansion in the processing capacity of the company’s Mothae kimberlite mine. The expansion is scheduled for completion in the first quarter of 2021.

    In the November 2020 announcement, Lucapa stated that it expects the expansion to “materially increase production, revenues and due to economies of scale, improve unit operation costs and deliver improvements to earnings.”

    The Lucapa share price is currently up 2.78% in morning trade.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

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    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

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    Motley Fool contributor Gretchen Kennedy has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Why PointsBet, Santos, Sayona, & Splitit shares are charging higher today

    ASX shares higher

    In late morning trade the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to start the week with a decline. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is down 0.3% to 6,737.7 points.

    Four shares that have not let that hold them back are listed below. Here’s why they are charging higher:

    PointsBet Holdings Ltd (ASX: PBH)

    The PointsBet share price is up 3% to $12.37. This may have been driven by a note out of Bell Potter recently which named the sports betting company as a share to buy in 2021. According to the note, Bell Potter has placed a speculative buy and $15.10 price target on its shares. It notes that the company has a significant opportunity in the United States market, where it currently has partnerships in 12 US states with a combined population of 94 million.

    Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)

    The Santos share price is up 4% to $7.25. Investors have been buying the energy producer’s shares after oil prices jumped to their highest levels since February of last year. On Friday Brent crude oil climbed 1.8% to US$55.35 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled 2.8% higher at US$52.24 per barrel. Both benchmarks recorded weekly gains of more than 6%.

    Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA)

    The Sayona Mining share price has rocketed 61% to 2.25 cents. Investors have been fighting to buy the Canada-based lithium miner’s shares after it signed an agreement with Piedmont Lithium Ltd (ASX: PLL). That agreement sees Piedmont Lithium buy a stake in the company and sign up for at least 50% of Sayona Québec’s future spodumene concentrate production.

    Splitit Ltd (ASX: SPT)

    The Splitit share price has jumped 9% to $1.41 after announcing an agreement with tech giant Google in Japan. In the coming weeks, customers purchasing Google’s new 5G phone, the Pixel 5, or Nest devices from the Google Store, will be able to split their payments into equal monthly instalments through Splitit.

    This Tiny ASX Stock Could Be the Next Afterpay

    One little-known Australian IPO has doubled in value since January, and renowned Australian Moonshot stock picker Anirban Mahanti sees a potential millionaire-maker in waiting…

    Because ‘Doc’ Mahanti believes this fast-growing company has all the hallmarks of genuine Moonshot potential, forget ‘buy now pay later’, this stock could be the next hot stock on the ASX.

    Doc and his team have published a detailed report on this tiny ASX stock. Find out how you can access what could be the NEXT Afterpay today!

    Returns as of 6th October 2020

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    James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Pointsbet Holdings Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Pointsbet Holdings Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Are ASX lithium shares staging a comeback in 2021?

    asx share price increase represented by golden dollar sign rocketing out from white domes

    ASX lithium shares have truly tested the resolve of long-term shareholders after more than two years of negative returns.

    The industry has been in survival mode since lithium prices spiralled lower after spot prices peaked in 2018. This was driven by an influx of producers and supply, on dwindling demand. 

    In recent months, the Galaxy Resources Limited (ASX: GXY), Orocobre Limited (ASX: ORE) and Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) share prices have staged epic recoveries, delivering triple digit returns from their lows late last year. 

    But taking a look at the bigger picture, the Orocobre and Galaxy share prices are still down a respective 30% and 27% from their 2018 highs. Pilbara is the only player to be eyeing a record all-time high after surging more than 250% since October. 

    Lithium prices hit a 14-month high

    Fastmarkets cites that China’s battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have hit a 14-month high due to continued tight supply and producers hiking up prices further. 

    The turning point for lithium prices is significant following more than two years of tumbling prices. Since 2018, lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices slumped by more than 50%, slashing the once highly profitable ASX lithium shares. 

    In the case of Galaxy, the company has previously traded at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 10. But in the company’s half-year ended 30 June 2020 results, it delivered a net loss of US$22 million. 

    Back in FY18, the company was selling lithium concentrate for an average of US$927 per dry metric tonne (dmt). These prices fell to an average of US$502/dmt in FY19. And US$398/dmt in the most recent 30 June 2020 results. 

    Pilbara is the latest ASX lithium share to update the market about improving prices. Its December quarter shipments update cited improved spodumene concentrate demand conditions, with lithium carbonate pricing up 35% to date from its lows in August 2020. 

    ASX lithium shares positioned for the future 

    ASX lithium shares have wasted no time in gearing up for higher lithium prices in the medium-long term. 

    Galaxy holds three lithium assets. Two of which are aimed to start construction and commissioning in 2022. Galaxy moderated production settings on its flagship resource, Mt Cattlin, to 50-55% of capacity to adapt to market conditions. However, the miner is examining the potential to ramp up Mt Cattlin production to full capacity, subject to inventory levels and prices.

    Similarly, Pilbara also has the ability to rapidly increase production in response to rising prices. 

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

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    Motley Fool contributor Lina Lim has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Leading broker names the ASX retail shares to buy in 2021

    A happy shopper with lots of bright shopping bags, indicating a positive surge for ASX retail share price

    Analysts at Bell Potter have been busy finding ASX shares from several industries that they believe are best placed to have a strong 2021.

    On this occasion, I’m going to look at the tech sector. Here are a couple of shares they rate highly:

    Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1)

    The first retail share that Bell Potter is a fan of is Accent. It is the owner and operator of a number of footwear businesses in the performance and lifestyle side of the market. The broker has been very pleased with the company’s performance during the pandemic and appears confident in its growth trajectory.

    Bell Potter commented: “We believe management has steered the company exceptionally through the pandemic, underpinned by a quick adoption to online as top priority, successful negotiations with landlords/suppliers, effective cost management and the successful unwind of excess inventory.”

    The broker also notes that its valuation is undemanding given its strong position in the market.

    “We believe AX1 has emerged as a stronger retailer across online capability, vertical product presence, rental terms, balance sheet strength, as well as levers to drive growth (store network and online). Based on these factors, we believe AX1’s valuation is undemanding with FY21 PE of ~16x. AX1 also offers an attractive FY21 fully franked yield,” it concluded.

    Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP)

    Another discretionary retailer that Bell Potter is fond of its Domino’s. It is the largest franchisee outside of the USA and holds the Master Franchise licence to the pizza chain brand for Australia, New Zealand, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Japan, Denmark and Luxembourg.

    The broker notes that management has plans to double its store network organically over the next decade or so to 5,550 stores. In addition to this, it believes the company could accelerate its growth inorganically through acquisitions.

    Bell Potter sees a lot of promise internationally for the company. It commented: “Amongst DMP’s current territories, Germany and Japan are key large growth markets which continue to go from strength-to-strength. Germany is now leveraging off TV advertising under one brand, with rising brand awareness driving market share growth in a highly fragmented market. In Japan, DMP is successfully changing consumer habits towards more frequent pizza consumption rather than just seasonally.

    “Overall, we believe DMP has significant long-term growth prospects with Europe, Japan and acquisitions the major drivers,” it added.

    Bell Potter has a buy rating and $99.30 price target on its shares.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group and Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Why the SelfWealth (ASX:SWF) share price has popped 3.8% higher this morning

    man jumps up a chart, indicating share price going up on the ASX

    The SelfWealth Ltd (ASX: SWF) share price has jumped 3.8% at the open following a strong quarterly update from the Aussie online brokerage group.

    What’s in the update?

    There were a number of highlights from SelfWealth for the second quarter of FY21 ending 31 December 2021.

    The brokerage group reported record quarterly operating revenue of $4.46 million, up 298% year-on-year (YoY). The number of active traders on the platform surged 17% from the prior quarter and 208% YoY to 67,394.

    Quarterly trade volume jumped 377% YoY to 378,430 trades with client cash up 220% YoY to $435 million.

    Securities held on HIN surged 153% YoY to $4.30 billion as SelfWealth’s strong growth trajectory continued through to the end of 2020.

    Why is the SelfWealth share price surging?

    The SelfWealth share price has reacted today, with investors pushing the group’s shares up 3.8% to $0.55 per share in early trade. At the time of writing, the share price is trading at 54.5 cents, up 2.8%.

    SelfWealth said it is continuing to grow its market share by attracting both new market entrants and clients from competitors.

    SelfWealth managing director Rob Edgely described 2020 as a “transformational year” with an “encouraging” take up by existing clients on its US trading platform.

    US stock trading began on 14 December with 13% of existing clients applying for US trading to be added to their existing ASX portfolios. 

    Seasonally adjusted trade volumes continued to grow despite trade volume edging lower from the September quarter on an absolute basis. The Aussie brokerage group also recorded its largest-ever trading day on 10 November with 11,421 trades placed.

    The SelfWealth share price had a year that reflected the group’s strong performance in calendar year 2020. Shares in the Aussie financials group are now up 243.8% for the year after climbing higher in early trade.

    Foolish takeaway

    Shares in the Aussie brokerage group are on the move this morning after a strong quarterly trading update. This as the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) edges 0.3% lower at 6736 points.

    This Tiny ASX Stock Could Be the Next Afterpay

    One little-known Australian IPO has doubled in value since January, and renowned Australian Moonshot stock picker Anirban Mahanti sees a potential millionaire-maker in waiting…

    Because ‘Doc’ Mahanti believes this fast-growing company has all the hallmarks of genuine Moonshot potential, forget ‘buy now pay later’, this stock could be the next hot stock on the ASX.

    Doc and his team have published a detailed report on this tiny ASX stock. Find out how you can access what could be the NEXT Afterpay today!

    Returns as of 6th October 2020

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    Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Why the Afterpay (ASX:APT) share price has rocketed 250% in 12 months

    Rocket shooting out of investors outstretched hands to signify fast growth of ASX tech share

    The Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) share price has been on fire in the last few years. 

    Afterpay initially listed on 4 May 2016 for $1.00 per share to give it a market capitalisation of $125 million. Given its strong run of success, that now pales in comparison to what the Aussie payments group is worth today.

    At the time of writing, Afterpay now boasts a market capitalisation of over $32 billion.

    Why has the Afterpay share price surged higher?

    The Afterpay share price has now surged to $113 and is up more than 250% in the last year.

    There’s no doubt 2020 was a good year for shareholders, despite a slump in the March bear market. Afterpay shares plunged as low as $8.01 per share in March 2020, before rebounding strongly to close out the year.

    This was largely due to a successful international expansion and a strong coronavirus response.

    Australia contained COVID-19 as the federal government and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rolled out billions in stimulus measures. That included a boost to JobSeeker and introduction of the JobKeeper scheme from the government.

    For its part, the RBA  drove interest rates lower by slashing rates and targeting the yield curve. More money in circulation, low interest rates reducing debt burdens, and restrictions on movement saw online retail sales surge across the country.

    As a result, Afterpay was able to record strong sales numbers, despite initial investor concerns over increasing bad debts in what looked to be a looming recession.

    The Afterpay share price continued to climb late in the year after a bumper FY20 result. Afterpay reported a 112% increase in underlying sales to $11.1 billion for the 12 months ended 30 June 2020. The buy now, pay later group also managed to retain customers and increase active customers to 9.9 million.

    UK and USA customer numbers grew strongly as the group continued its steady diversification away from its Australian and New Zealand roots.

    Total income increased 97% to $519.2 million as earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) climbed 73% to $44.4 million.

    That gave the Afterpay share price some strong momentum to close out the year at $118.00 per share — just shy of its record high.

    Foolish takeaway

    The Afterpay share price has been on fire in recent years but remains in a holding pattern in early 2021. All eyes will be on the Aussie fintech as it pushes forward with new initiatives in the new year.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

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    Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Why the Wisr (ASX:WZR) share price popped 5% this morning

    The Wisr Ltd (ASX: WZR) share price is up by 5.26% this morning, following a release from the company regarding its second quarter FY21 performance.

    At the time of writing, the Wisr share price is sitting at 20 cents per share. The non-bank lender’s shares have fallen 14.89% in the last 12 months.

    For comparison, other lending companies such as Mortgage Choice Ltd (ASX: MOC) and Resimac Group Ltd (ASX: RMC) have returned 18.8% and 43.43%, respectively.

    Wisr’s second quarter FY21 highlights

    In today’s release to the ASX, Wisr informed the market of its continued record quarterly growth with prime loan customers. The company’s loan originations experienced a growth of $83.8 million quarter on quarter, an increase of 35%. This also represents a significant 165% increase in loan originations from the second quarter of FY20.

    Including the reported figures for this most recent quarter, Wisr’s total loan originations now sit at a record $390.5 million as at 31 December 2020. While achieving this record, Wisr also managed to improve the average credit score of its customers to 757.

    Reportedly, Wisr’s recently launched secured vehicle loan product has been delivering strong initial results. Wisr CEO Mr Anthony Nantes stated, “[o]ur new secured vehicle product has also significantly increased the total addressable market for Wisr.”

    Management commentary

    The strong growth defies any concerns of the short-term impact from COVID-19 on the company’s ability to grow its loan originations. Mr Anthony Nantes provided the following comments on the results:

    We had a very strong start to the quarter and it’s fantastic to see that momentum continue through the holiday period, delivering 35% growth while attracting the best borrowers in Australia. The consumer sentiment shift we witnessed from COVID-19, for better financial products and services, has certainly not slowed down.

    Mr Nantes also expressed excitement for the potential growth in 2021, pointing to the company’s differentiated business model, consumer proposition, technology platforms, and funding capability as foundations for aggressive growth.

    At the current Wisr share price, the company holds a $219 million market capitalisation.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

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    Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Why the Costa Group share price (ASX:CGC) is crashing this morning

    business man wearing box on his head with a sad, crying face on it representing bad investment in asx shares and fall in Costa share price

    The market is holding on to recent gains but the big rally in the Costa Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: CGC) share price came to a jarring halt after it was downgraded by a leading broker.

    The CGC share price tumbled 5.6% to $4.05 in early trade when the S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO) is trading a little under breakeven.

    This makes the Costa share price the worst performing stock on the ASX 200 at the time of writing. The fruit and mushroom grower is the only non-gold stock on the worst losers list.

    The Resolute Mining Limited (ASX: RSG) share price and Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR) share price are in second and third positions.

    Costa share price downgraded by broker

    The underperformance of the CGC share price comes after it surged by around 70% over the past year.

    All the good news and little of the 2021 risks looks to be priced into the stock, according to Citigroup.

    The broker downgraded the Costa share price to “neutral” from “buy” even as it lifted its 12-month price target to $4.30 from $3.75 a share.

    Blueberries leave sour taste

    “We believe Costa remains well positioned to benefit from better growing conditions and higher prices in some produce categories,” said Citi.

    “However, the fundamentals in berries are still mixed with elevated supply likely to restrict growth in margins.”

    There has been an oversupply of blueberries over the past five years. While consumption jumped by 2.5 times over the period, prices have been falling, according to Citi.

    No price recovery expected in 2021

    While the market is looking more balanced today, the broker doubts we will see any price growth due to higher crop yields.

    “In response to more competition in blueberries, Costa is shifting its mix both through the time it harvests and the type of berries it produces,” added Citi.

    “We expect the company to deliver 3%-5% revenue growth sustainably in berries, largely through a better mix of sales. Blackberry hectare growth is also a source of upside.”

    Risks and rewards are finely balanced

    Citrus exports are another sweet spot for the group and a big reason behind Citi’s decision to boost its target price on the Costa share price.

    The price of citrus fruits is up by more than 60% in some markets, although this is partially offset by weaker mushroom prices.

    Other headwinds for Costa include the risks of higher costs from its Moroccan operations and higher rental expenses.

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    Returns as of 6th October 2020

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    Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of COSTA GRP FPO. Connect with me on Twitter @brenlau.

    The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended COSTA GRP FPO. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

    The post Why the Costa Group share price (ASX:CGC) is crashing this morning appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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