• Why the InvoCare (ASX:IVC) share price tumbled 5% lower today

    falling asx share price represented by business man giving thumbs down gesture

    The InvoCare Limited (ASX: IVC) share price was a poor performer on Wednesday.

    The funerals company’s shares sank as much as 5% before ending the day almost 4% lower at $10.83.

    Why did the InvoCare share price tumble lower?

    Investors were selling InvoCare shares on Wednesday following the release of an announcement relating to its upcoming full year results.

    According to the release, the company intends to recognise $26.5 million in pre-tax significant items in its FY 2020 financial results. This comprises $7 million worth of operating items and $19.5 million of non-operating items.

    In light of this, InvoCare expects to report a disappointing net loss after tax in the range of $7 million to $12 million.

    It is also worth noting that even excluding its significant items, InvoCare would still be reporting a material profit decline.

    Excluding these significant items, net profit after tax is expected in the range of $14 million to $19 million. This represents a 70% to 78% decline on FY 2020’s net profit after tax of $63.8 million. Though, it is worth noting that the prior period does include a mark-to-market gain on the revaluation of undelivered prepaid contracts.

    What are the significant items?

    The release explains that a material portion of the significant items is linked to the softening of the funeral services sector in Australia and New Zealand.

    It notes that this is being primarily driven by a range of impacts flowing from the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The company commented: “Goodwill related to the New Zealand business (which represents less than 10% of Group operating EBITDA) was impaired by $24.4 million in the 2019 financial year. While some progress had been made to improve the business, the reassessment of recoverable value will result in a further $19.3 million goodwill impairment for the year ended 31 December 2020. Notwithstanding the impairment, the Group remains confident that the quality of our frontline team in New Zealand will continue to provide excellent service to our client families.”

    What else?

    In addition to this, it advised that some of the significant items relate to the carrying value assessments performed as part of year-end accounting procedures or are items that provide disclosure clarity to operating earnings.

    This includes a $6.2 million impairment to the carrying value of certain modules of the Oracle ERP project. It advised that the replacement of certain functions rendered some elements of the IT platform obsolete.

    InvoCare intends to release its full year results on 24 February.

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended InvoCare Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • What’s the go with the EarlyPay (ASX:EPY) share price today?

    questioning whether asx share price is a buy represented by man in red shirt scratching his head

    The EarlyPay Ltd (ASX: EPY) share price has been a rollercoaster today. Initially, shares in the non-bank lender jumped on open to 50 cents, an increase of 16%. Celebrations were short-lived with the shares taking the elevator back to 44 cents.

    The price movements are cause for some head-scratching, as there are no announcements. Let’s take a look at what could be happening.

    What might be moving the EarlyPay share price?

    EarlyPay rebranding resonates with rocketeers

    EarlyPay was previously known as CML Group – just doesn’t have the same ring to it, does it? The recent rebranding was a part of the company’s shift towards a new software-as-a-service (SaaS) operation after acquiring Skippr.

    Transitioning to more of a digital-leaning lender, EarlyPay likely hopes to replicate the success of ASX-listed Wisr Ltd (ASX: WZR) in its digital endeavours. EarlyPay does differ from Wisr though, as the former provides secured finance to small and medium-sized businesses. Whereas Wisr offers loans to individuals for travel, car purchase, etc.

    With the acquisition of Skippr, EarlyPay can now assess credit quality through integration with cloud accounting data automatically. Additionally, the whole onboarding process for a customer is now automated – significantly reducing the time and effort required on EarlyPay’s end to facilitate a loan.

    There is the potential that some are speculating over the name EarlyPay, as it sounds a little like Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT). With the buy now, pay later (BNPL) sector heating up, everyone is hunting for new entrants. However, EarlyPay isn’t quite a BNPL company – although the debate rages on whether BNPL is just glorified credit.

    EarlyPay profitable growth play

    Investors could also be enticed recently by the fact EarlyPay is profitable. As a consequence of the recent SaaS shift, the company may be appealing to investors less fancied with loss-making businesses.

    In its October 2020 investor presentation, EarlyPay recorded $8.4 million in profits on $47.5 million revenue. Based on today’s valuation, that gives EarlyPay a P/E ratio of 11.85 – which would be considered low for a technology company. But, then the debate arises, is it a technology company or just a lender?

    Whatever the answer, the EarlyPay share price has had a whirlwind day. At the time of writing, EarlyPay shares are swapping hands for 44 cents, which puts it up 1.16% today and 14% for the year so far. 

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    Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Bitcoin hits record high: Why Saxo says the cryptocurrency is here to stay

    A rocket with a bitcoin symbol take off, indicating a surging or record high price in the cryptocurrency

    Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) just hit another new record high. And as we humans like to put more weight on nice base-10 numbers (thanks fingers), this is a big one.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency topped US$50,000 in the last 24 hours, peaking at US$50,580. It’s since retraced a bit, to the current price of US$49,500. That’s up some 70% in 2021 alone.

    Isn’t Bitcoin just a fad?

    For many investors, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin appear to be little more than a fad. One that will eventually fade away, leaving holders of the digital tokens empty-handed.

    But the recent adoption by larger institutions – including the US$1.5 billion investment by Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) – is shaking the naysayers’ resolve.

    According to Eleanor Creagh, Australian market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets, fading trust in institutions is driving the renewed appetite for Bitcoin:

    Bitcoin was birthed in the aftermath of the GFC as a currency free from the corruption of central banks and governments, so it’s unsurprising to see renewed interest during a period when central banks’ unconventional monetary policies are highlighting many of the issues Bitcoin sought to solve.

    Creagh says mainstream investors are increasingly accepting the current economic and financial models are flawed.

    Much as in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, we are seeing intervention and unconventional monetary policy acting as dual forces that serve to entrench and aggravate inequality. Once again, inequities within our systems are in full view, with a “K-shaped” recovery increasing the wealth transfer to those already asset rich.

    Bitcoin meanwhile is designed to function on a standalone basis. It is uncorrupted by banks and governments and therefore immune to the debasement suffered by fiat currencies.

    Born from easy money policies

    Creagh points the finger at central bank and government’s turning their backs on orthodoxy themselves, with “unbridled liquidity injections and ever-expanding central bank balance sheets” diminishing mainstream scepticism of cryptocurrencies.

    Bitcoin’s capped supply at 21 million and non-inflationary model adds to its appeal as a debasement hedge and store of value within this regime, where governments and central banks have stimulus spigots on full force. In addition, the asset possesses a unique quality of an embedded call option on the future should it become a dominant digital monetary network. 

    She says that high-profile investors and large asset managers like Blackrock, Morgan Stanley and Guggenheim have helped drive the Bitcoin price higher and increased the general public’s acceptance of the digital token.

    Creagh concludes that “In the long term, institutional and commercial support will further validate the cryptocurrency, increasing its popularity as a store of value and paving the path toward mass adoption.”

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    Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Vulcan (ASX:VUL) share price slumps despite new partnership

    falling asx share price represented by a sad and flat battery

    Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd (ASX: VUL) shares are sliding in late afternoon trade. At the time of writing, the Vulcan share price is slumping 2.7% to $7.21.

    This comes despite the company announcing a collaboration with DuPont Water Solutions to advance its zero-carbon lithium extraction operations. Under the umbrella of one of the world’s largest chemical companies, DuPont Water Solutions specialises in purification and specialty-separation technologies. The company operates on a global scale delivering sustainable methods of water management.

    What did Vulcan announce?

    The Vulcan share price is trending lower despite the company releasing the positive announcement soon after market open this morning. 

    According to its release, the partnership with DuPont is designed to assist Vulcan with achieving the world’s first zero-carbon lithium extraction.

    Under the agreement, DuPont will supply direct lithium extraction (DLE) products that will test and scale-up the extraction process. This will include lithium selective sorbent, nanofiltration, reverse osmosis, ion exchange resins, ultrafiltration, and close-circuit reverse osmosis.

    DuPont will conduct input and test-work during Vulcan’s zero-carbon lithium project definitive feasibility study (DFS).

    The latest deal is another positive push for Vulcan’s efforts to accelerate the development of its project. The company noted that acquiring DLE products from a major supplier will minimise the technical risks associated with the extraction process.

    Management commentary

    Vulcan Managing Director Dr Francis Wedin touched on the partnership agreement, saying:

    Collaborating with a company like DuPont is an important de-risking strategy for the DLE component of our Zero Carbon Lithium project. DuPont’s diverse set of products which can be manufactured at scale are likely to be well-suited to sustainably extract the lithium from the brine.

    We look forward to a successful long-term relationship with DuPont, to implement our strategy of becoming a major supplier of our unique Zero Carbon Lithium hydroxide to the European electric vehicle battery market.

    DuPont Global Vice President and General Manager HP Nanda went on to add:

    We are proud to bring our expertise in water filtration and purification to Vulcan Energy’s Zero Carbon Lithium project to minimise the carbon and water footprint of lithium extraction and production — to more sustainably power mobility for years to come.

    Update on the Vulcan share price

    It has been an interesting few months for the Vulcan share price, particularly since the start of the year. Vulcan shares have risen to astronomical highs lately, gaining nearly 160% year to date.

    While Vulcan shares are sliding today, numerous positive company updates, as well as strong investor sentiment surrounding the lithium industry, have helped push its shares higher in 2021.

    Based on the current share price, Vulcan has a market capitalisation of roughly $775 million.

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    Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • One year on and 50% up, the All Technology Index is booming

    tech shares

    Next week marks one year since the S&P/ASX All Technology Index (ASX: XTX) debuted. Launched at the end of February 2020, the All Technology Index debuted just in time for the March market meltdown.

    The index saw its value tumble 42% between launch and the March 2020 low point. But all was not lost — since its March low, the index has regained 159% and is now up 50.5% from its debut, having performed on par with the NASDAQ 100 over the same period. 

    The All Technology Index was designed to be representative of Australia’s burgeoning tech sector. Consisting of 46 companies with a combined market capitalisation of over $100 billion on debut, the index now includes 69 companies with a combined market capitalisation of over $170 billion. The top 10 companies in the index, by market capitalisation, are: 

      Company Market capitalisation

    1

    Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) 

    $42.26 billion

    2

    REA Group Limited (ASX: REA)

    $20.34 billion

    3

    Xero Limited (ASX: XRO)

    $18.69 billion

    4

    Seek Limited (ASX: SEK)

    $10.94 billion

    5

    WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC)

    $10.36 billion

    6

    Computershare Ltd (ASX: CPU) 

    $7.61 billion

    7

    Nextdc Ltd (ASX: NXT) 

    $5.51 billion 

    8

    Carsales.Com Ltd (ASX: CAR)

    $5.36 billion 

    9

    Pro Medicus Limited (ASX: PME)

    $4.67 billion

    10

    Altium Limited (ASX: ALU)

    $3.82 billion

    How have All Technology Index shares performed? 

    A number of these names have seen dramatic share price increases over the past year, contributing to the stellar performance on the All Technology Index.

    At the time of writing, Afterpay is up 274% over the past year, while REA Group is up 36% and Xero is up 44%. These share price rises have followed impressive performances by these leading ASX technology shares — Afterpay has seen customer numbers nearly double since the All Technology Index debuted. REA Group grew net profit by 13% in the first half of FY21 with the continued recovery in Australian property markets likely to support second half performance. Xero reported a 19% increase in subscriber numbers in its most recent half-year results. 

    But it hasn’t all been good news for All Technology Index shares. The index also includes shares such as Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB) and Iress Ltd (ASX: IRE). The Webjet share price is down 46% over the past year as travel bans continue to weigh on the business. The Iress share price is down 28% over the same period with COVID-19 impacting on the timing of projects and revenues relatively flat in the most recent financial reports.

    EML Payments Ltd (ASX: EML) has also seen its share price fall over the past year, down 10.7%. The payment solutions provider, which reported largely positive half-year results this week, is one of the most shorted shares on the ASX. 

    How is the All Technology Index designed? 

    To fully capture the scope of ASX technology businesses, the All Technology Index goes beyond the GICS information technology sector to include other innovative technology related industries. These include healthcare technologies (such as that provided by Pro Medicus) and companies operating online marketplaces that are classified in other GICS sectors.

    There is no cap on the number of ASX shares that can be included in the All Technology Index — entrants just need to meet the entry criteria. These criteria cover the percentage of free float shares, market capitalisation, relative liquidity, and minimum daily volume traded. The Index is rebalanced quarterly, with the most recent rebalance occuring in December. 

    New additions to the All Technology Index 

    In the December rebalance a host of new ASX technology shares were added to the Index. These included Pointerra Limited (ASX: 3DP), 4Dmedical Limited (ASX: 4DX), Bidenergy Limited (ASX: BID), Damstra Holdings Limited (ASX: DTC), Frontier Digital Ventures Limited (ASX: FDV), Family Zone Cyber Safety Limited (ASX: FZO), Harvest Technology Group Ltd (ASX: HTG), Laybuy Group Holdings Limited (ASX: LBY), Marley Spoon Ag (ASX: MMM), Over the Wire Holdings Limited (ASX: OTW), Tesserent Limited (ASX: TNT), Weebit Nano Ltd (ASX: WBT), and Yojeee Limited (ASX: YOJ)

    In the preceding September rebalance, Brainchip Holdings Ltd (ASX: BRN), Dicker Data Limited (ASX: DDR), Envirosuite Limited (ASX: EVS), Mach7 Technologies Limited (ASX: M7T), Novonix Limited (ASX: NVX), Splitit Payments Ltd (ASX: SPT), Sezzle Inc (ASX: SZL), and Whispir Limited (ASX: WSP) were added to the index. 

    Why do investors choose the All Technology Index? 

    The All Technology Index offers a number of benefits for investors. Firstly, it is broader than the previously existing S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index, which only includes technology companies in the ASX 200. This means the All Technology Index can provide exposure to smaller businesses that may have greater room for growth.

    The index also reaches beyond the GICS information technology sector to include innovative technology based companies included in other sectors. This allows for the inclusion of healthcare technology companies such as Pro Medicus and PainCheck Ltd (ASX: PCK), as well as online marketplaces such as Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN).

    What’s next for the All Technology Index? 

    The All Technology Index had a shaky start, launching just as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold. But it has proved its resilience over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO). Since its launch, the All Technology Index has gained more than 50%, led by companies such as Afterpay and Kogan. Over the same period, the S&P/ASX 200 is down 1.2%.

    The All Technology Index is next due to be rebalanced in March, at which point we may see the number of ASX technology shares included in it increase further. This will provide additional diversification for investors in the index while also providing additional exposure for the companies included in the index.

    Whether the All Technology Index can repeat its first year’s performance in its second year remains to be seen, but investors will be keeping their fingers crossed. 

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    Kate O’Brien owns shares of Altium. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Damstra Holdings Ltd, EML Payments, Frontier Digital Ventures Ltd, MACH7 FPO, Pro Medicus Ltd., and Whispir Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Kogan.com ltd, Over The Wire Holdings Ltd, and Pointerra Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. recommends Altium and Sezzle Inc. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Dicker Data Limited and Webjet Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO, Altium, WiseTech Global, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended carsales.com Limited, Damstra Holdings Ltd, EML Payments, Frontier Digital Ventures Ltd, IRESS Limited, Kogan.com ltd, MACH7 FPO, Over The Wire Holdings Ltd, Pointerra Limited, Pro Medicus Ltd., REA Group Limited, SEEK Limited, Sezzle Inc, and Whispir Ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

    Clock showing time to buy, ASX 200 shares

    Many of Australia’s top brokers have been busy adjusting their financial models again, leading to the release of a large number of broker notes this week.

    Three broker buy ratings that have caught my eye are summarised below. Here’s why brokers think these ASX shares are in the buy zone:

    Altium Limited (ASX: ALU)

    Analysts at Citi have upgraded this electronic design software company’s shares to a buy rating with an improved price target of $33.50. According to the note, while the broker sees risks to the company achieving its full year guidance, it believes COVID-19 headwinds are easing and demand is improving. It expects this to result in an acceleration in its earnings growth in FY 2022. Citi also believes recent weakness has left its shares trading at an attractive level. The Altium share price is trading at $28.98 today.

    Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG)

    According to a note out of Morgan Stanley, its analysts have retained their overweight rating and increased the price target on this appliance manufacturer’s shares to $35.00. The broker notes that Breville delivered a first half result ahead of its expectations. Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley believes that Breville’s guidance for the full year is conservative and expects it to outperform it. Especially given the strong demand for kitchen appliances. The Breville share price is trading at $30.81 this afternoon.

    ELMO Software Ltd (ASX: ELO)

    Another note out of Morgan Stanley reveals that its analysts have retained their overweight rating and $9.70 price target on this human resources and payroll platform provider’s shares. This follows the release of its half year results, which were largely pre-released in January. Looking ahead, the broker believes that ELMO is well-placed to achieve the top end of its annualised recurring revenue (ARR) guidance range. The ELMO share price is fetching $6.11 on Wednesday.

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    James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Elmo Software. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. recommends Altium. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Altium. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Elmo Software. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Why the Avita Medical (ASX:AVH) share price is slipping lower today

    falling healthcare asx share price Mesoblast capital raising

    The Avita Medical Inc (ASX: AVH) share price has stayed in the red today since the company announced its half-year results this morning.

    At the time of writing, shares in the regenerative medicine company are down 2.66% at a price of $6.23.

    A look at the half-year results

    For the half-year ending 31 December 2020, Avita Medical reported a substantial revenue increase from the sale of its goods. Revenue rose to $10.16 million up 56% from the previous corresponding period. However, despite the positive returns, net loss also expanded. The company posted a net loss of $15.87 million, which was up 13% from the first half of FY20.

    The widening loss may be weighing on investors’ minds this afternoon as the stock is being sold off. But while shareholders will be regretting the fall, shorters of the stock will be pleased as the company continues its troubled run. Avita Medical remains the eighth most shorted stock on the ASX this week.

    Moreover, the company reported a disappointing quarterly report last week, which saw its share price slide 11%. In the report, the company announced a strong cash balance of $59.8 million.

    Critically it did not provide guidance to the market due to the prevailing uncertainty stemming from the coronavirus pandemic. The small-cap health share advised that its accounts were highly susceptible to the impacts of COVID-19 because its revenue came predominantly from 20 physicians.

    About the Avita Medical share price

    Avita Medical is a regenerative medicine company based in the United States. The company’s main offering is Recell, a spray-on treatment used for burn victims. Avita currently boasts a market capitalisation of $136 million.

    The Avita share price has had a torrid time of late and is down 63% on the same time last year. The share has not fully recovered from the impacts of COVID-19 and remains some way off its 52-week high of $9.11.

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    Daniel Ewing has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Avita Medical Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Avita Medical Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • Why investors are watching the Crown (ASX: CWN) share price

    young woman sitting cross legged with large tub of popcorn and surprised facial expression

    The Crown Resorts Ltd (ASX: CWN) share price will be under renewed interest from investors today. The company has garnered further attention after releasing new updates to the market. At the time of writing, the Crown share price was down 0.6% to $9.70.

    Crown to resume operations in Melbourne

    Crown’s most recent update informed investors that the company will resume operations at its Melbourne casino precinct from midnight tonight. The news follows the Victorian government rolling back restrictions following a snap, 5-day lockdown announced on the 12 February.

    Despite relaxed restrictions, Crown’s gaming operations will have limitations. The company’s gaming floor is limited to 50% of maximum capacity. Similarly, each indoor space will be limited to 300 patrons.

    Response to the WA independent inquiry

    Earlier today Crown also provided a response to an independent inquiry initiated by the Western Australia (WA) government.

    An urgent meeting of WA’s Gaming and Wagering Commission concluded that an independent inquiry be undertaken. The intention of this was to assess Crown’s suitability to hold the state’s only casino licence. According to the Commission, they are taking measures to ensure that the inquiry has the powers of a Royal Commission.

    In a statement released earlier today, Crown noted that the company would “fully cooperate” with the inquiry and would “continue to engage with the WA Commission in relation to its reform agenda and any further remedial steps”.

    What is driving interest in the Crown share price?

    The Crown share price has faced scrutiny from investors following a scathing report from Commissioner Patricia Bergin. The report follows a public inquiry into the company, which uncovered allegations of money laundering.

    Highlighting issues, the Bergin report deemed Crown unsuitable to operate a new Sydney casino at Barangaroo. Additionally, determining through an 800-page report that Crown needs to make sweeping cultural changes if it wants to be considered a suitable operator in the future.

    The fallout continued, with Crown’s Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director stepping down last week amid the chaos.  

    How has the share price responded?

    The Crown share price has had a muted response despite the chaos. At the time of writing, shares in Crown are trading relatively flat for the day.

    Over the past 52 weeks, the Crown share price has tanked more than 17%, with the COVID-19 pandemic weighing heavily on the company.

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  • Why the BHP (ASX:BHP) share price just blasted into record territory

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    BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have just blasted into record territory. If the BHP share price can hold onto its 3.26% intraday gains for roughly another hour, the Australian iron ore and copper mining giant will close at new all-time highs.

    BHP’s previous record high was $47.54 per share. Shares touched $49.30 in early morning trade today, before retracing some to currently trade at $48.47.

    Why is the BHP share price hitting all-time highs?

    After falling hard during the COVID-driven market rout last February and March, the BHP share price has come roaring back, up 92% since 16 March.

    Much of the company’s success is attributable to the soaring price of iron ore and copper, the two dominant contributors to BHP’s earnings.

    The iron ore price, above US$160 per tonne, remains near 8-year highs. Copper is also at 8-year highs, trading for US$8,405 per tonne.

    That’s certainly spelled good news for BHP’s earnings. Yesterday the company reported its underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) came in at US$14.7 billion for the half-year ending 31 December 2020. That’s an increase of 21% from the prior corresponding half.

    Of that US$14.7 billion, US$13.9 billion came from its iron ore and copper segments, with iron ore generating EBITDA of US$10.2 billion and copper generating EBITDA of US$3.7 billion.

    Iron ore and copper demand

    While iron ore prices are widely forecast to slowly retreat over the coming years, strong demand from China’s steel factories along with increased infrastructure spending from developed nations looking to kickstart their virus-addled economies should cushion any price falls. Indeed, the iron ore price may well surprise to the upside.

    According to analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), as quoted by The Australian Financial Review:

    China’s Two Sessions in early March will prove crucial to China’s policy objectives. If policymakers favour growth again this year, particularly through another infrastructure-led stimulus, iron ore prices will track higher than we’re forecasting. Another key support for iron ore prices this quarter will be the risk that wet weather plays on iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil.

    Copper demand is also predicted to remain strong, with JPMorgan analysts forecasting a new commodities supercycle is taking form. One that will support copper prices as the world increasingly shifts towards battery storage for power and electric vehicles for transport.

    How that all plays out remains to be seen.

    But for today, the record high BHP share price will be pleasant news to the company’s shareholders.

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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  • What’s with the Afterpay (ASX:APT) share price fall today?

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    The Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) share price is falling in trade today, currently down 3.3% at $148.38. This is despite the recent buy now, pay later (BNPL) excitement in other shares including Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P), Fatfish Group Ltd (ASX: FFG), and IOUpay Ltd (ASX: IOU).

    With no news from the company today, we look at what other forces might be at play.

    Catalysts for today’s Afterpay share price selling

    Could recent run-ups in BNPL competitors stem from an interest in finding the next big player? Particularly in cases like Fatfish and IOUpay, as they target new developing markets for the sector in Southeast Asia. The potential returns from investing at an early stage might have Afterpay shareholders taking profit and reallocating to these opportunities.

    Alternatively, the case could be made that the tech sector is looking a bit frothy. Technology shares have outperformed through COVID-19 and the global market rebound.

    Many investors found solace in companies with limited exposure to physical forms of business – in addition to the large role technology had in handling the events of the pandemic. However, some may perceive evaluations as stretched at this point, even when accounting for growth.

    This perception of overvalued in many tech shares, including Afterpay, might lead investors to turn to value investing. That means blue-chip shares that look undervalued based on their earnings, often reflected in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio.

    Is the growth engine still chugging along?

    In a short timeframe of nearly 4 years, Afterpay has managed to grow like wildflowers. Merchants, customers, revenue – all the metrics have been humming along like a fine-tuned engine. For instance, revenue has rocketed from $22.906 million in 2017 to $476.555 million in 2020.

    However, 2021 is a world away from 2017. Indeed, Afterpay now has countless contenders all wanting a piece of the BNPL pie. This might have investors nervous considering the company still hasn’t turned a profit. The question weighing on the minds of some is, how much profit will be in it, given the saturation of competitors?

    Afyterpay’s recent sales in the United States indicate strong sales are still occurring for the company. The announcement posted on 2 December 2020 highlighted the company exceeding $2 billion of global sales in a single month. Furthermore, the US made up $1 billion of these sales, increasing 186% from the prior year.

    The growth story will be clarified on 25 February, when the company is slated to release its half-year results for FY21.

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    Mitchell Lawler owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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