• Gold price surges to another record high. Why ASX gold stocks could be next

    A man leaps from a stack of gold coins to the next, each one higher than the last.

    The gold price has surged to a fresh record, pushing above US$4,590 per ounce and putting ASX gold stocks firmly back in the spotlight.

    According to Trading Economics, gold is now up more than 70% over the past year, with prices accelerating sharply in recent weeks as investors seek safety amid rising geopolitical and political risks.

    So, what does this mean for Australian gold stocks, and could the rally still have room to run?

    Gold hits record highs as uncertainty grows

    The immediate catalyst for the latest move has been a surge in global uncertainty.

    Overnight, gold climbed more than 1.8% after reports emerged that US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had been threatened with criminal charges linked to past Senate testimony. That development has raised serious concerns around the independence of the US Federal Reserve.

    At the same time, geopolitical risks remain elevated. Tensions involving Iran, Israel, Venezuela, and the US have increased fears of broader conflict and supply disruptions across energy and commodity markets.

    As a result, investors are buying safe haven assets, with gold once again acting as the ultimate defensive play.

    Rate cut expectations adding fuel

    Interest rate expectations are also playing a key role.

    Recent US economic data has pointed to a cooling labour market, with job growth slowing more than expected. This has strengthened expectations that the US Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates later this year.

    Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not generate income. Historically, gold prices tend to perform well when interest rates fall or are expected to fall.

    With US inflation easing and economic momentum slowing, many investors believe the conditions are now in place for gold to remain elevated.

    Why ASX gold stocks could benefit

    Most Australian gold miners such as Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), and Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) have all-in sustaining costs well below current spot prices. With gold trading above US$4,590 an ounce, margins across the sector have expanded dramatically.

    That extra cash flow can be used to strengthen balance sheets, pay down debt, increase dividends, or accelerate exploration and development activity.

    Australian producers also benefit from a favourable currency backdrop. With the Australian dollar weaker against the US dollar, local miners receive even higher realised prices when gold is sold.

    Investor interest returning to the sector

    After several years of underperformance, investor sentiment towards gold stocks is improving.

    Many ASX gold shares still trade well below their historical valuation multiples, despite the yellow metal sitting at record highs. That gap is now starting to close as investors rotate back into profitable, cash-generative miners.

    If gold prices remain elevated, or push even higher, ASX gold stocks could continue to attract renewed buying interest throughout 2026.

    Foolish bottom line

    Gold’s surge to record highs reflects a world grappling with political risk, geopolitical tension, and shifting interest rate expectations.

    For ASX gold miners, this environment is highly supportive. Strong margins, rising cash flow, and improving sentiment suggest the sector may be entering a new upcycle.

    The post Gold price surges to another record high. Why ASX gold stocks could be next appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Northern Star Resources Limited right now?

    Before you buy Northern Star Resources Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Northern Star Resources Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    * Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

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    Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Red hot: These ASX 200 shares are off to a strong start in 2026

    A man holding a cup of coffee puts his thumb up and smiles while at laptop.

    We’re not even two weeks into the new year, but there are a few ASX 200 shares that have wasted no time – already rising significantly since New Year’s Day. 

    Let’s see what’s sparked their runs.

    Alcoa (ASX: AAI)

    Alcoa is a vertically integrated U.S. based aluminium producer with a global footprint across bauxite mining, alumina refining, primary aluminium smelting and casting, and associated energy generation.

    Like many mining stocks, it has enjoyed a strong start to the year. 

    Gold, silver and other commodity shares are continuing on from 12 months of strong performance. 

    Alcoa shares have risen more than 18% year to date already. 

    For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up just 0.67%. 

    This ASX 200 stock is now up 64% over the last 12 months, and is sitting close to an all-time high. 

    So is there any more upside?

    Alcoa shares closed yesterday at $94.75 per share. 

    However, it appears estimates from analysts believe it is now trading above fair value. 

    TradingView has an average 12 month price target of $74.11. 

    This is approximately 21.8% lower than its current share price. 

    Reliance Worldwide Corporation Ltd (ASX: RWC)

    Reliance is the world’s largest supplier of push-to-connect (PTC) brass plumbing systems for water and central heating applications.

    This ASX 200 stock is already up almost 9% so far in 2025. 

    This marks a rebound from a tough 2025. 

    Its share price remains down almost 16% from a year ago. 

    It seems this year’s bounce back could continue based on guidance from analysts. 

    TradingView has an average one year price target of $4.59 which indicates more than a 9% upside. 

    Online trading platform Selfwealth lists this ASX 200 stock as undervalued by 20%.

    Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS)

    Ramelius Resources is another ASX 200 materials stock continuing its bull run. 

    It has risen by almost 8% so far this year. 

    It is a gold mining and production company with its primary production being focused on the Mt Magnet goldmine in Western Australia. 

    Over the last 12 months its share price is now up just over 100%. 

    In recent news out of the company, it is maintaining its FY26 gold production guidance and lifting its minimum dividend to two cents per year.

    Despite its rapid rise, there appears to be modest upside for this ASX 200 stock, although it is approaching fair value estimates. 

    TradingView has an average one year price target of $4.71. 

    This indicates an upside of 7.3%. 

    Selfwealth lists the stock as undervalued by roughly 12%. 

    The post Red hot: These ASX 200 shares are off to a strong start in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Ramelius Resources Limited right now?

    Before you buy Ramelius Resources Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Ramelius Resources Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    * Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

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    Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Forget term deposits! I’d buy these two ASX 200 shares instead

    Young happy people on a farm raise bottles of orange juice in a big cheers to celebrate a dividends or financial win.

    Term deposits don’t offer the growth that I want over the long-term. S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares can provide investors with resilient passive income and growth of the payments.

    It’s true that term deposits will protect capital, but they don’t grow the capital value either.

    I think it could be a better move for the long-term to own growing businesses that are likely to provide reliable passive income as the years go by. Let’s look at two of my ideas.

    Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX: CIP)

    I think real estate investment trusts (REITs) are a good industry to look for opportunities because of how they have rental contracts (usually multi-year contracts), and the capital value of the buildings usually doesn’t change much year to year.

    This ASX 200 share is particularly attractive because it is exposed to a number of tailwinds that are driving demand for industrial space. Those drivers include increasing e-commerce adoption, the growth of fresh food and pharmaceuticals, data centres, the onshoring of supply chains, a limited supply of new warehouses, and the growth of Australia’s population.

    The business has guided that it will grow its funds from operations (FFO) – the net rental profit – by up to 6% to between 18.2 to 18.5 cents per unit. The business is expecting to increase its distribution by 3% to 16.8 cents per unit, translating into a forecast distribution yield of 5%.

    Grant Nichols, the ASX 200 share’s fund manager, said:

    CIP continues to achieve strong outcomes across its portfolio relating to leasing, capital transactions and value add initiatives. The ability to deliver these results is credited to CIP’s portfolio being concentrated in Australia’s urban infill markets where tenant demand is strongest, vacancy is low and supply is constrained.

    These urban infill assets provides multiple future opportunities for alternative, higher-use developments such as data centres and residential schemes.

    APA Group (ASX: APA)

    APA is an impressive energy infrastructure business that owns a vast gas pipeline network – it transports half of the country’s gas usage. Other gas assets include gas processing, gas storage and gas-powered energy generation.

    It also has wind farms, solar farms and electricity transmission assets.

    The ASX 200 share is seeing long-term cash flow growth from an expanding portfolio of assets, which is helping pay for a distribution that has been hiked every year for the last two decades. That’s an excellent record of reliability.

    APA is benefiting from the fact that a vast majority of its revenue is inflation-linked, giving the business a useful tailwind for its top-line.

    While a lot of its new assets in recent years have been pipelines, though it also announced a new power plant.

    It’s expecting to increase its payout to 58 cents per unit in FY26, translating into a forward distribution yield of 6.6%.

    The post Forget term deposits! I’d buy these two ASX 200 shares instead appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in APA Group right now?

    Before you buy APA Group shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and APA Group wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    * Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

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    Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Apa Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • 2 ASX dividend shares I’d buy for reliable payouts

    Excited woman holding out $100 notes, symbolising dividends.

    I’m always on the lookout for ASX dividend shares that I believe can add reliability or helpful cash flow to my portfolio.

    Dividends aren’t guaranteed in the same way interest from a term deposit is. But, some businesses have a more reliable dividend record than others.

    If we just buy the most reliable names, then we can have greater confidence in the level of cash flow we think we’re going to get. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be confident about what dividends the miner Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) may pay because of volatile iron ore prices.

    I’ll highlight two names I think offer very compelling payouts.

    Rivco Australia Ltd (ASX: RIV)

    This business is unique on the ASX – it owns water entitlements that it can lease to irrigators on short-term or long-term leases.

    I like this ASX dividend share because it gives investors the ability to indirectly gain exposure to the important agricultural sector without having the operational risk of running farms.  

    Pleasingly, the business can benefit from both the lease income and the potential long-term growth in the value of the entitlements.

    Thanks to the decision of the company to pay a sustainable dividend, rather than the biggest it could, it has steadily grown its payout every six months since 2017.

    The last two dividends declared by the business come to a grossed-up dividend yield of 7.3%, including franking credits.

    The business is also trading at an attractive discount. The Rivco share price is currently at a 7.25% discount to the latest monthly net asset value (NAV) per share.

    Rural Funds Group (ASX: RFF)

    Rural Funds is another ASX dividend share that also gives investors exposure to the agricultural sector.

    The real estate investment trust (REIT) owns a national portfolio of farms that are leased to high-quality tenants. Those farm types include cattle, vineyards, almonds, macadamias and cropping. I like that for the diversification it can add to my portfolio.

    Prior to COVID-19, the business had an impressive record of growing its distribution by 4% per year. However, this was stopped by the high interest rate environment. Even so, the business has managed to maintain its annual payout each year since then.

    It’s expecting to pay an annual distribution of 11.73 cents per unit in FY26, translating into a forward distribution yield of 5.8%.

    With rental increases built into most of its contracts (either fixed increases or linked to inflation), I think the prospects are positive for both rental profit growth and distribution growth in the longer-term.

    It also looks like it’s trading at a really good value. At 30 June 2025, it reported having a NAV of $3.08. That means it’s currently trading at a 35% discount, which I’d call a really appealing level to buy at.

    The post 2 ASX dividend shares I’d buy for reliable payouts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Rural Funds Group right now?

    Before you buy Rural Funds Group shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Rural Funds Group wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    * Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

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    Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has positions in Rivco Australia and Rural Funds Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Rural Funds Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday

    A man in trendy clothing sits on a bench in a shopping mall looking at his phone with interest and a surprised look on his face.

    On Monday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) started the week with a decent gain. The benchmark index rose 0.5% to 8,759.4 points.

    Will the market be able to build on this on Tuesday? Here are five things to watch:

    ASX 200 expected to rise again

    The Australian share market looks set to push higher again on Tuesday following a positive start to the week on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to open the day 23 points or 0.25% higher. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is up 0.1%, the S&P 500 is 0.2% higher, and the Nasdaq is up 0.5%.

    Oil prices rise

    It could be a decent session for ASX 200 energy shares Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) after oil prices pushed higher overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 0.5% to US$59.42 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 0.7% to US$63.77 a barrel. Traders were buying oil in response to Iranian and Venezuelan uncertainty.

    BHP and Rio Tinto expected to rise

    It looks set to be a good session for BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares on Tuesday after their NYSE-listed shares charged higher on Monday night. Both miners were up around 2% during the session on Wall Street.

    Gold price jumps

    ASX 200 gold shares including Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS) could have a good session on Tuesday after the gold price jumped overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 2.8% to US$4,626.7 an ounce. This was driven by safe haven demand and a weaker US dollar.

    Buy WiseTech shares

    WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares offer major upside according to analysts at Citi. The broker has retained its buy rating and $109.15 price target on this logistics solutions technology company’s shares. It believes WiseTech can achieve the midpoint of its annual revenue guidance despite granting some customers a short-term exemption from its new pricing model. Although Citi concedes that second half revenue from Cargowise value packs could be smaller than previously expected, it believes this could be offset by stronger than expected industry freight volumes. The broker also sees scope for strong earnings from lower than forecast operating expenses.

    The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in BHP Group right now?

    Before you buy BHP Group shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and BHP Group wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    * Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

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    Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Are these ASX 200 shares a buy after yesterday’s sell off?

    A little boy holds a toy digger with a confused look on his face.

    The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has edged slightly higher to start 2026. 

    However it hasn’t been smooth sailing for the entire index. 

    These three companies all endured a tough day yesterday, with their share prices falling between 4-7%.

    Let’s see what’s behind the decline. 

    Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB)

    Mesoblast shares fell approximately 7% yesterday. 

    There was no price sensitive news out of the company. 

    It appears investors may have been profit taking after finishing last week on a high. 

    These ASX 200 shares rose almost 10% on Friday following the release of a sales update.

    This pushed Mesoblast shares close to a 52-week high. 

    The allogeneic cellular medicines developer reported a gross revenue of US$35.1 million on Ryoncil (remestemcel-L-rknd) sales for the quarter ended 31 December 2025. 

    This was a 60% increase on the prior quarter ended 30 September.

    Mesoblast shares have enjoyed a resurgence and are now 80% higher than mid-2025. 

    Experts seem to believe there’s no reason to think it will slow down. 

    6 analysts have a strong buy recommendation along with an average price target of $4.19 according to TradingView data. 

    This indicates a further upside of 47%. 

    DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO)

    DroneShield shares fell approximately 4% yesterday. 

    There was no price sensitive news from the company. 

    This ASX 200 stock has continued its strong performance to start the year, up 25% in 2026. 

    It is now up more than 420% in the last 12 months as it continues to benefit from a massive increase in global defence spending amid greater geopolitical turmoil.

    It seems brokers still see more upside for this ASX 200 stock as investors may be advised to take advantage of yesterday’s 4% dip. 

    Bell Potter has a buy rating along with a 12-month price target of $4.50.

    This indicates a further 16.8% upside. 

    Super Retail Group Ltd (ASX: SUL)

    Super Retail Group shares fell around 5% yesterday. 

    This came on the back of a trading update which included adjusted profit guidance. 

    The company has projected profit before tax of $172 million to $175 million, subject to its audit review.

    This is down from $186 million in the prior corresponding period and $206 million a year before that.

    Despite this, TradingView has a one year price target of $17.94 on this ASX 200 stock. 

    This indicates 20% upside after yesterday’s sell off. 

    The post Are these ASX 200 shares a buy after yesterday’s sell off? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Super Retail Group Limited right now?

    Before you buy Super Retail Group Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Super Retail Group Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    * Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

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    Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield and Super Retail Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Super Retail Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • $20,000 of Telstra shares can net me a $1,774 passive income!

    Middle age caucasian man smiling confident drinking coffee at home.

    Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) shares could be among the most attractive investments for passive income within the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

    The combination of good dividend yield and rising payouts could be exactly what passive income investors are looking for.

    If an investor were to buy $20,000 of Telstra shares this week, they could give themselves a lot of extra dividends for their life expenditure (or have more cash flow to fund investments).

    Big dividends incoming?

    Telstra has had a reputation as an ASX dividend share for a long time, but not necessarily one that regularly grows its dividend.

    However, the company is now impressively hiking its dividend for investors.

    In the 2025 financial year, the business decided to increase its payout by 5.6% to 19 cents per Telstra share.

    Broker UBS is expecting consecutive dividend rises in the coming years. In FY26, it could pay an annual dividend per Telstra share of 21 cents. At the time of writing, that translates into a grossed-up dividend yield of 6.2%, including franking credits.

    If someone were to invest $20,000 and get that yield, this would be $1,240 of annual passive income.

    But, excitingly, UBS predicts that Telstra’s dividend per share could rise to 22 cents in FY27, 24 cents in FY28, 27 cents in FY29 and 30 cents in FY30.

    This would mean investing $20,000 today could eventually see the business pay $1,774 of passive income.

    Is this a good time to invest in Telstra shares?

    UBS expects Telstra to continue raising prices for postpaid mobile users, though it also expects some users to trade down. The broker is forecasting a 4.5% price rise, or $3 per month, in postpaid in July 2026, which is expected to drive a 2.5% increase in postpaid average revenue per user growth in FY27.

    However, the broker is expecting Telstra to lose a little bit of market share.

    UBS also notes that Telstra was the first to incur satellite direct-to-handset costs since rolling out satellite messaging to consumers in June 2025, recently expanding that to enterprise customers.

    The broker also made some comments on the potential fallout of some of Telstra’s peers’ 000 outages:

    Further, the Australian government is looking to potentially legislate a Universal Outdoor Mobile Obligation (UOMO) post recent 000 outages, which would require mobile carriers to partner with LEOSats to provide mobile voice and text outdoors everywhere in Australia.

    UBS has a neutral rating on Telstra shares, with a price target of $4.90. That implies little movement from where it is today, so there could be better ASX shares out there for passive income.

    The post $20,000 of Telstra shares can net me a $1,774 passive income! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Telstra Corporation Limited right now?

    Before you buy Telstra Corporation Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Telstra Corporation Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    * Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

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    Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • CBA shares could crash below $100 in 2026: Here’s why

    A worried woman sits at her computer with her hands clutched at the bottom of her face.

    Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares closed 0.56% higher on Monday afternoon, at $154.08 a piece. 

    For 2026 so far, the banking giant’s shares have fallen 4.25% and they’re now 13.79% below where they were just six months ago. Year-on-year CBA shares are 0.86% higher.

    In 2025, CBA shares enjoyed a fantastic rally, peaking at an all-time high of $192.00 per share in June. But some analysts are warning that the banking giant’s stock price could see a heavy downside in the year ahead, potentially even below $100 per share.

    Here’s why.

    1. CBA’s shares are overvalued versus its peers

    CBA’s shares are significantly higher than other major Australian banks, and some analysts argue that the share price isn’t supported by the bank’s earnings and fundamentals.

    CBA is currently trading on a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.68, while other major Australian banks trade on much lower P/E ratios. For example, Westpac trades on a P/E of around 19.64, NAB’s P/E ratio is around 19.20 and ANZ’s P/E ratio is about 18.67. 

    This means investors are paying significantly more for CBA’s earnings than they are for its big 4 bank peers.

    CBA’s premium reflects its strong market share, solid profits, and long track record of consistent performance. But, if earnings growth disappoints or investor confidence softens, there’s a risk that its high valuation will work against the share price.

    2. Net interest margins are under pressure

    CBA faces ongoing pressure on its net interest margin (NIM) thanks to intense market competition and regulatory changes. 

    Intense competition in both home lending and deposit products is key driver of NIM pressure. In order to remain competitive, and attract and retain its customers, CBA and other major Australian banks have offered competitive pricing. But the downside is this pricing has compressed its margins. For FY25, the bank reported a NIM of 2.08%.

    This NIM pressure is a key concern for investors and analysts because margin compression tends to slow earnings growth, which in turn can push CBA’s valuation sharply lower.

    3. Potential interest rate hikes 

    Late last year the Reserve Bank governor Michelle Bullock said that she didn’t see a rate cut “on the horizon for the foreseeable future” and signalled that the board might consider an extended hold period or even a rate hike in 2026. 

    The cash rate currently sits at 3.6%, where it has been since the RBA delivered its last rate cut in August 2025. 

    While in the short term, an interest rate hike would be more earnings for banks like CBA, in the medium and long term it can lead to stronger competition and even an increase in mortgage stress. As CBA is heavily exposed to mortgage lending this can put huge pressure on its share price.

    CBA shares could crash below $100

    TradingView data shows that 13 out of 15 analysts have a sell or strong sell rating on CBA shares. The average 12-month target price is $124.37 a piece, which implies a 19.29% drop at the time of writing.

    But some analysts think CBA’s share price will plummet even more sharply down to $99.81 per share. That suggests a significant 35.22% drop over the next 12 months.

    While it’s clear that analysts expect a strong downside ahead for CBA shares in 2026, a drop below $100 would most likely be a worst-case scenario. That’s unless sentiment completely shifts or we see signs of an economic downturn in Australia, both of which are very possible this year.

    The post CBA shares could crash below $100 in 2026: Here’s why appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Commonwealth Bank of Australia right now?

    Before you buy Commonwealth Bank of Australia shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Commonwealth Bank of Australia wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    * Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

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    Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • The perfect retirement stock with a 4.4% payout each month

    Two elderly people smiling with their fists pumping and with a cape on.

    How does one define the perfect retirement stock? Well, it would have to offer a substantial upfront dividend yield, preferably with full franking credits attached, to help fund said retirement, for one. It would also preferably have a decent track record of funding reliable dividends, to lend one confidence that the stock can conceivably continue to underpin a retirement for years, or even decades.

    A diversified earnings base would also help, as would payouts on a more frequent interval than the six-month gap that is common on the ASX.

    Plato Income Maximiser Ltd (ASX: PL8) arguably ticks all of these boxes. Let’s go through them.

    Plato Income Maximiser is a listed investment company (LIC) that specialises in catering to the financial needs of retirees. Like most LICs, Plato runs its own underlying investment portfolio that it manages on behalf of its investors. In Plato’s case, this portfolio consists of a wide variety of other ASX dividend-paying shares.

    These shares are all selected on their ability to fund large but sustainable dividends. Some of these holdings currently include BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS). So that’s diversity ticked off.

    How does this ASX retirement stock measure up?

    Plato uses the dividends it receives from this underlying portfolio to pay out its own dividends. This dividend comes every single month, meaning investors enjoy 12 paycheques a year from this retirement stock. Those dividends usually come with full franking credits attached too. Tick, tick.

    Over the past 12 months, Plato has funded 12 dividends, each worth 0.55 cents per share. The annual total of 6.6 cents per share in fully franked dividends gives this retirement stock a trailing dividend yield of 4.44%. That’s at yesterday’s closing share price of $1.48. Another box ticked.  Bear in mind that this yield comes after Plato’s 18.8% rise over the past 12 months, which has reduced the trailing dividend yield on his company substantially.

    But what about Plato’s track record?

    Well, since launching in 2017, Plato has only cut its dividend once. That was over 2020, when the pandemic crushed the dividends many ASX shares were able to pay out. Plato did cut its monthly dividend from the then-0.5 cents per share per month down to 0.4 cents per share. But that lasted about a year, and investors have seen their payouts rise back and then exceed 2020’s levels since.

    In terms of overall returns, Plato investors have enjoyed an average total return (share price growth plus dividends) of 10.2% per annum since inception. That just beats out the broader market, which has averaged 10% per annum over the same period.

    Our final box gets a tick, and as such, I would be happy to recommend Plato Income Maximiser to any income investor looking for the perfect retirement stock today.

    The post The perfect retirement stock with a 4.4% payout each month appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Plato Income Maximiser Limited right now?

    Before you buy Plato Income Maximiser Limited shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Plato Income Maximiser Limited wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    * Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in National Australia Bank and Plato Income Maximiser. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

  • Which AI themes should investors be targeting in 2026?

    A man checks his phone next to an electric vehicle charging station with his electric vehicle parked in the charging bay.

    Many investors look to capture emerging markets and trends. Right now, one such sector is artificial intelligence (AI). 

    Rapid innovation in the sector is disrupting the ways we live and work and piquing investor interest in artificial intelligence.

    However, it can be difficult to sift through the noise, headlines and misinformation. This is especially relevant when an industry is rapidly developing and changing. 

    A new report from Global X has shed light on how to stay ahead of the curve. 

    The rapidly evolving world of AI 

    In the latest report from Global X, the ETF provider reinforced the difficulty of pinpointing where within a theme or industry to allocate resources. 

    Global X said this could be upstream or downstream, in small-cap disruptors or established players, or emerging markets.

    The challenge lies in cutting through the noise to distinguish transformative developments from those that may be overhyped.

    The DISRUPT framework

    Global X has developed an investment strategy to help pinpoint opportunities in the AI sector. 

    According to Global X, the DISRUPT Framework evaluates seven key criteria: disruption, innovation, scalability, resilience, uptake, potential, and transformation. 

    Together, these elements combine to create a detailed picture of a specific innovation. It also offers insights into lifecycle stage, market dynamics, and optimal investment opportunities.

    The opportunity – AI and Automobiles 

    The DISRUPT framework shows that AI in Auto is highly advanced in disruption and innovation. This is supported by strong adoption, improving scalability, and meaningful long-term economic potential. 

    The technology is already embedded across global OEMs and EV makers, while partnerships between chip suppliers, cloud providers, and autonomy developers continue to deepen. 

    AI now influences how cars are designed, manufactured, operated, and updated, with applications spanning smart cockpits, fleet optimisation, predictive maintenance, and assisted driving.

    According to Global X, this creates a broad and investable opportunity set across the automotive value chain. 

    The ETF provider said the strongest opportunities lie in the midstream where AI capability is already central to model design and production. 

    Semiconductors, sensors, vehicle compute, simulation engines, and software stacks are scaling across the US and China in particular, with Korea and Japan strengthening through component and manufacturing leadership. 

    These layers benefit from rising global AI penetration and tend to outperform downstream OEM exposure, which remains more sensitive to regulation, competition, and pricing.

    How to gain exposure?

    For investors wanting to gain exposure to these themes, there are targeted ASX ETFs that aim to track relevant companies. 

    For broad exposure to AI companies, investors might consider the Global X Ai Infrastructure ETF (ASX: AINF).

    It provides targeted exposure to this growing opportunity through a concentrated and equally weighted portfolio of companies across energy, materials and data infrastructure.

    Another AI focussed ETF is the Global X Artificial Intelligence ETF (ASX: GXAI). 

    It targets companies that potentially stand to benefit from the further development and utilisation of artificial intelligence (AI) technology in their products and services, as well as in companies that provide hardware facilitating the use of AI for the analysis of big data.

    For exposure to the electric vehicle sector, investors may consider the BetaShares Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF (ASX: DRIV). 

    It provides exposure to a portfolio of global companies at the forefront of innovation in automotive technology.

    The post Which AI themes should investors be targeting in 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Global X Ai Infrastructure ETF right now?

    Before you buy Global X Ai Infrastructure ETF shares, consider this:

    Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Global X Ai Infrastructure ETF wasn’t one of them.

    The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…

    * Returns as of 1 Jan 2026

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    Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.