If you’re planning to add a few blue chip ASX shares to your portfolio in the near future, then I would suggest you consider the two listed below.

As far as two brokers are concerned, they could be among the best on offer on the Australian share market right now. Here’s why they are rated as buys:

CSL Limited (ASX: CSL)

CSL is one of the world’s leading biotherapeutics companies and the name behind the high quality CSL Behring and Seqirus businesses. CSL Behring is the global leader in plasma therapies, whereas Seqirus is the second largest influenza vaccines business.

Both of CSL’s businesses have been growing at a solid rate in recent years and have been tipped to continue doing so in the future. This is due to their leading therapies and vaccines, increasing demand, and lucrative research and development pipelines.

In respect to the latter, CSL’s pipeline contains a number of highly promising products that have the potential to generate significant revenues in the future. This includes clazakizumab, which is being developed to treat kidney transplant rejection. This product alone could generate peak sales of US$5.4 billion eventually.

UBS recently retained its buy rating and $346.00 price target on CSL’s shares. This compares to the latest CSL share price of $284.72.

Xero Limited (ASX: XRO)

Another blue chip to look at is Xero. It is one of the world’s leading cloud-based business and accounting software platform providers. Over the last few years the company has successfully evolved from being a place to do your accounts, to a full-service small business solution.

This has helped underpin significant subscriber and revenue growth. For instance, during the first half of FY 2021, Xero finished the period with 2.45 million subscribers. This led to it reporting a 21% increase in operating revenue to NZ$409.8 million and a 15% lift in annualised monthly recurring revenue (AMRR) to NZ$877.6 million.

One broker that is confident there will be more of the same over the 2020s is Goldman Sachs. Last month it initiated coverage on the company with a buy rating and $157.00 price target. Goldman believes Xero can achieve a 2030 subscriber footprint of 7.4 million and generate NZ$3.4 billion in annual revenue.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• The top performing ASX 200 tech shares of 2020 
• Sonic Healthcare (ASX:SHL) share price gets fresh COVID boost
• Disappointments from the ASX 200’s best ever December quarter
• 2 of the best ASX growth shares to buy in January

James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of CSL Ltd. and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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With most brokers taking a well-earned break over the holiday period, research notes are few and far between right now.

In light of this, I thought I would take a look at a few that have been released over the last few weeks that remain very relevant today.

Three sell ratings that you might want to pay attention to are listed below:

National Storage REIT (ASX: NSR)

According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts have retained their sell rating but lifted the price target on this self-storage operator’s shares to $1.57. Goldman made the move following the release of the company’s trading update and guidance for FY 2021. Although there were aspects of the update that pleased the broker, it notes that there wasn’t enough detail to allow it to change its overall view. Particularly given its current valuation, which Goldman Sachs appears to believe is excessive compared to its peers. It points out that its shares are trading at a 23x estimated FY 2022 FFO. This compares to a sector average of ~17x. The National Storage share price is trading at $1.91 today.

OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL)

Another note out of Goldman Sachs reveals that its analysts have retained their sell rating and lifted the price target on this copper producer’s shares to $16.70. According to the note, Goldman believes OZ Minerals’ shares are overvalued at the current level. It notes that they are trading at 1.2x net asset value, compared to the sector average of 1x net asset value. It believes this is due to the market valuing its Carrapateena mine in line with the larger and higher quality Olympic Dam mine owned by BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP). The OZ Minerals share price is changing hands for $19.77 this afternoon.

Virtus Health Ltd (ASX: VRT)

Analysts at Morgan Stanley have downgraded this fertility treatment company’s shares to an underweight rating but increased the price target on them to $4.90. Morgan Stanley made the move after a very strong gain in recent months left its shares looking overvalued. In addition to this, the broker has concerns about the impact that a long term shift to lower-value IVF services will have on its earnings. The Virtus Health share price is trading at $5.54 today.

More reading

• ASX mining shares that delivered the best returns in 2020
• 2 ASX dividend shares for income investors
• These ASX dividend shares offer investors attractive yields
• Why the Oz Minerals (ASX:OZL) share price is up 78% in 2020
• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to sell next week

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Virtus Health Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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ASX lithium shares across the board have jumped higher in the new year.

At the time of writing, the Galaxy Resources Limited (ASX: GXY) share price leads the pack, gaining 11% today. The Orocobre Limited (ASX: ORE) share price is 8.81% higher and the Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) share price is 7.75% higher. 

Breath of life into ASX lithium shares

ASX lithium shares have surged in recent months on the back of bottoming lithium prices and increasing optimism for a renewables revolution. 

Lithium spot prices have been in a downtrend since 2018, when the industry was inundated with new producers and supply. It wasn’t until recently that lithium prices finally began to bottom. 

Fastmarkets has revealed that most producers insisted on higher prices for battery grade lithium carbonate, citing a lack of material, and are targeting more than 50,000 yuan (A$10,087) per tonne for January 2021.

This compares to the average prices in the fourth quarter of FY20 of 41,731 yuan (A$8,419) per tonne. The update highlighted that prices for lithium carbonate for delivery in the second quarter of 2021 could increase sharply due to tight availability and increased demand. 

Tesla adding hype to lithium consumption 

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) is very much the symbol of hope for the lithium industry. On Saturday, the US electric car company came close to meeting its 500,000 vehicle deliveries goal for 2020. Tesla has been ramping up output to meet rising global demand for battery-powered cars, with plans to build new factories in Austin, Texas and Brandenburg, Germany.

The Tesla share price soared more than 700% last year and set a fresh record all-time high on Monday of $729.77 per share. 

ASX lithium shares waiting patiently

In Galaxy Resource’s equity raising presentation on 25 November 2020, the company was optimistic for robust lithium demand in the mid-long term. 

Galaxy sees global electric vehicle sales growing as high as 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the next decade. Its spodumene price forecast says that improved prices could come as early as 2021.

Electric vehicle sales have also shown a solid recovery towards the end of 2020 after a COVID-19 led disruption. Europe reported 99% year-on-year growth in September, while China neighbourhood electric vehicle (NEV) sales increased 113% year-on-year and 16% month-on-month in October 2020. 

More reading

• Is it better to buy 2020’s best or worst ASX shares?
• Tesla’s Q4 deliveries soar
• Why Galaxy (ASX:GXY) and these ASX shares just hit 52-week highs or better
• Here are the best All Ordinaries performers of 2020
• Why Costa, Galaxy, Oil Search, & Ramelius shares are pushing higher

Lina Lim has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The Rhythm Biosciences Ltd (ASX: RHY) share price has continued its positive run on Tuesday.

At one stage, the medical device company’s shares were up 15% to a record high of $1.30.

This is almost 1,000% higher than this time last year, making it a “ten-bagger” for investors.

Why is the Rhythm Biosciences share price on fire?

Investors have been buying the company’s shares since the release of two positive announcements in December.

The first announcement revealed that Rhythm Bioscience has appointed France-based Biotem as the global manufacturer of its ColoSTAT test-kit.

ColoSTAT is Rhythm’s lead product and is intended to be a simple, affordable, minimally invasive, and effective blood test for the early detection of bowel cancer. The company expects the product to be comparable to, if not better than, the current standard of care, the faecal immunochemical test (FIT), but at a lower cost.

Management also notes that ColoSTAT provides an alternative for those who choose not to, or are unable to, be assessed using standard screening programs.

According to the aforementioned announcement, Biotem was chosen following a robust due diligence process to select a manufacturer for the product that could execute on its ambition to address the global unmet need for the early detection of colorectal cancer.

It feels Biotem has the capability to deliver the optimisation and process validation of the manufacturing procedure due to its 40+ years of immunoassay development and manufacturing experience.

The second announcement that got investors excited revealed that it has been granted a patent for its key ColoSTAT biomarkers in the United States.

This is particularly positive given that the United States represents one of the largest diagnostic markets in the world. The addition of a US patent sees Rhythm expand its global footprint and ultimately, access to a global addressable screening market of close to 800 million people.

Rhythm’s CEO, Mr Glenn Gilbert, commented: “The granting of this US patent further strengthens Rhythm’s global position as an emerging leader in the diagnosis of cancer, initially in the area of colorectal cancer.”

“The significance of this patent cannot be overstated, as it expands our access to a growing global market, and importantly, with ColoSTAT being a simple, low-cost option, means that we are in a position to access the mass market opportunity in each key country. Having patent coverage in all the major global markets is a significant value-add for the Company,” he added.

More reading

• Here are 3 ASX small cap shares with exciting product launches in 2021
• Why the Rhythm Biosciences (ASX:RHY) share price jumped over 600% this year
• The Rhythm (ASX:RHY) share price is surging 5% higher today. Here’s why.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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Ardent Leisure Group Ltd (ASX: ALG) has had a year to forget. 

That’s because the Ardent share price lost half its value over the course of 2020, and has been among the ASX companies hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

However, with the new year and new hopes of a vaccine, can the leisure and entertainment company turn itself around in 2021?

What moved the Ardent share price in 2020?

Ardent Leisure owns and operates leisure assets such as Dreamworld and WhiteWater World theme parks and SkyPoint on the Gold Coast, Queensland.

Its Main Event portfolio in the United States also includes 43 family entertainment assets.

These leisure venues have been at the mercy of government-ordered lockdowns throughout last year, as the pandemic took its deadly grip on the world.

As a result, the company reported a bottom line net loss after tax of $136.6 million, which came on top of a $60.9 million loss in FY19.

The theme parks division reported trading revenue of $54.5 million for the year, down 18.8%.

The company has been making losses since fiscal 2017, after fatalities at the Dreamworld venue in October 2016 led to a sharp drop in attendance.

It has looked for fresh capital to help fill the fast-depleting coffers, with RedBird Capital recently injecting $129 million of cash into the US business.

The theme parks division has also recently received a $66.9 million loan from the Queensland Government.

Can the company turn things around in 2021?

Ardent Leisure’s business is obviously highly leveraged to the COVID-19 recovery theme, but there’s some good news on this front.

The Ardent share price has risen 80% in the last 6 months as the government eases social and travel restrictions.

The share price was also buoyed by the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index hitting 112.0 in December 2020 – 48% above the April low and highest since October 2010.

The fate of its 43 Main Event venues in the US however, is less clear,  given that the US is still in a deep battle to contain the pandemic.

Ardent has said that it will still face revenue pressures even if lockdowns were lifted, as restrictions on attendance numbers is likely to constrain its cash flow.

Beyond the coronavirus crisis however, Ardent Leisure possesses solid leisure and entertainment assets with relatively high barrier of entry due to the capital intensive nature of the venues.

However, the company has acknowledged that it’s competing for leisure dollars especially against online digital entertainment, where many traditional entertainment activities can now be enjoyed in a virtual setting.

About the Ardent share price

As mentioned, the Ardent share price has lost around half its value in one year. It started 2020 at around $1.40 before plummeting to a low of 10 cents in March. 

At the time of writing, the Ardent share price is trading at 70 cents, down 1.4%. The company commands a market cap of $340 million.

More reading

• How this ASX REIT finished 2020 in positive territory
• Citi sees bigger takeover offer coming for Coca-Cola Amatil (ASX:CCL) share price
• MyFiziq (ASX:MYQ) share price falls despite announcing new app release
• Cimic (ASX:CIM) share price slides lower after new CFO announced
• Here’s why the A2 Milk (ASX:A2M) share price was hammered in 2020

Motley Fool contributor Eddy Sunarto has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) share price was one of few ASX real estate investment trusts (REITs) to finish 2020 well into positive territory. Let’s take a closer look at how the sector overall performed in 2020.

Pandemic woes for office and retail spaces 

Retail and office-centric REITs struggled last year as COVID-19 shut down most shopping centres and the workforce largely shifted to working from home. Rent collections became a huge point of contention with rent cash collections falling significantly during the months of April and May 2020. 

Scentre Group (ASX: SCG), for example, saw its rent collections fall as low as 28% and 35% in April and May respectively, before a gradual recovery to 88% and 96% by September and October respectively. Despite a recovery in rent cash collections, and in metrics such as centre visitation and in-store sales growth, the Scentre Group share price finished 2020 down by 30%. 

A similar narrative took place for other office and retail ASX REITs including DEXUS Property Group (ASX: DXS), GPT Group (ASX: GPT), Stockland Corporation Ltd (ASX: SGP) and Vicinity Centres (ASX: VCX).

Industrial ASX REITs reign supreme 

The Goodman share price outperformed its ASX REIT peers many times over, surging almost 40% in 2020. Goodman’s property portfolio is highly selective and, according to the company, focused on high quality properties including warehouses, large scale logistics facilities and office parks around the world.

COVID has reinforced the consumer need for convenience and heightened the use of technology. These trends have continued to accelerate the adoption of physical infrastructure necessary to support e-commerce, including warehouse and data centre space.

Goodman’s development work in progress reached $6.5 billion in June 2020, accelerated to $7.3 billion in September 2020 and is expected to increase further in FY21. Greg Goodman, Group CEO, said the company is seeing strong levels of pre-commitment and long lease terms being sought by customers, as they secure essential infrastructure to support their operations.

The strong growth in Goodman’s pipeline, combined with the company’s 97.8% occupancy as at 30 September 2020, gave this ASX REIT the confidence to reaffirm its forecast FY21 operating earnings per share of 62.7 cents, up 9% on FY20. 

Goodman is also one of few ASX REITs paying a dividend, after going ex-dividend on 30 December 2020. The company will be paying a 15 cent distribution, or dividend yield of 1.60% at today’s prices. 

More reading

• 3 ASX shares to buy for 2021 and beyond
• 2 of the best ASX 50 shares to buy today
• Buy these ASX blue chip shares for your retirement portfolio
• These are the 5 best ASX real estate shares of 2020

Motley Fool contributor Lina Lim has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The Coca-Cola Amatil Ltd (ASX: CCL) share price is trading flat but that’s a good outcome for the takeover target.

The CCL share price is holding at $12.94 during lunch time trade. That’s a positive because the S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO) lost 0.2% of its value and the stock is still trading above the offer price.

Coca-Cola Amatil received a takeover offer worth $12.75 a share from its European counterparts late last year.

Bigger takeover offer for CCL waiting to pop

Many criticized the bid as being opportunistic and have called it a lowball offer as the group has been severely impacted by COVID‐19.

The market agrees and that explains why the stock is trading around 1.5% ahead of the offer price.

Citigroup believes a higher offer is forthcoming and that the next set of results could be a catalyst for a higher offer.

COVID recovery adds fizz

“Like most companies, Amatil had a difficult June ’20 half (1H20), given lockdowns in key markets,” said the broker.

“However, volumes have improved in Australia, NZ and PNG, while Indonesia is still in double-digit decline.

“With group volumes down ~5% in 2H20e, we estimate EBIT could be flat YoY, with lower costs the driver.”

Coca-Cola Amatil could beat consensus

If Citigroup is right, Coca-Cola Amatil should deliver first half earnings per share (EPS) of 31.5 cents at the February reporting season.

This would imply a full year EPS of around 58 to 59 cents a share for 2021 (the group’s financial year is the same as the calendar year). That would be substantially ahead of consensus forecasts of 52 cents a pop.

Cost control key to higher offer price

Citi’s EPS forecast is driven in large part by good cost control. Coca-Cola Amatil moved quickly to cut costs during the onset of the pandemic and is estimated to have saved around $120 million in 2020.

The broker thinks these savings will be sustained this year, and if volumes recover, margins will expand at a greater pace.

How much more can CCL shareholders get?

Citi believes the next six weeks will be critical. When the group releases its results in mid-February, it will form the basis for the debate about the group’s future earnings trajectory.

“The continued recovery of volume and earnings for Amatil increases the possibility that a higher bid emerges,” explained the broker.

“We would still view an upside case as modest, perhaps a larger dividend could be retained by shareholders in February 2021.

“A bump of 25-50 cents per share is possible in our view.”

More reading

• Investors caught in crossfire as ASX retailers battle ASX property stocks in 2021
• ASX 200 down 0.3%: BHP & Rio Tinto rise, big four banks drop, Zip sinks
• Why ASX energy stocks are set to be among the worst performers on the ASX today
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Tuesday
• ASX 200 rises 1.5%

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The MyFiziq Ltd (ASX: MYQ) share price has fallen by 4.69% at the time of writing, despite the company announcing that the Biomorphik app is now live on Google Play and Apple Store.

The MyFiziq share price is currently trading at $1.22, down 6 cents.

More about the announcement

The Biomorphik app is, in fact, developed by a separate company that is integrated with MyFiziq’s technology.

The company says today’s initial app release is for both Android and iOS users in Australia with South East Asia to follow in Q1 of 2021.

In line with this initial release, Biomorphik will commence a comprehensive B2C (business-to-consumer) marketing strategy to draw users to the new platform.

 The first stage will allow people to monitor their bodies closely and pre-empt potential issues before they become prohibitive to the user’s health.

Under the terms of the commercial contracts, Biomorphik has given an undertaking to deliver to MyFiziq 100,000 active monthly users.  In the event this target is not achieved, MyFiziq has the right to terminate the agreements between the parties.

More about the Biomorphik app

According to the release, Biomorphik is a revolutionary technology that uses pictures from your smartphone to create a representation of yourself in the form of a 3D avatar with accurate circumference measurements.

The aim is to keep track of your body’s biometrics and record any gains made from physical activities. The company says the app provides a positive feedback loop which keeps people motivated to go to the next level in their physical endeavours.

Biomorphik will offer both a monthly subscription at $22.99 per month for unlimited scans, as well as a yearly subscription payment option with a significant discount at $142.99 per year for unlimited scans to consumers.

MyFiziq says that this is a very cost-effective option, as the user can scan as many times as they wish to track body composition changes.

About the MyFiziq share price

The MyFiziq share price has been on fire over the year, rising by nearly 500%.

The company has been on the move in 2020, signing significant contracts and partnerships.

In October, the company announced a deal to integrate MyFiziq’s body scanning technology into MVMNT’s platform. MVMNT is the digital delivery arm of FitLab LLC that integrates fitness solutions with athletes and sports brands.

In December, an agreement with Canada-based Triage Technologies was signed. That agreement saw the company take a strategic equity stake in Triage, and gave access to the licensed use of artificial intelligence (AI) health assistant technology for integration into MyFiziq’s CompleteScan software.

MyFiziq commands a market cap of $164 million.

More reading

• Why Dacian Gold, Lovisa, MyFiziq, & Zip shares are dropping lower

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Eddy Sunarto has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Alphabet (A shares) and Apple. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet (A shares) and Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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Cimic Group Ltd (ASX: CIM) shares are sliding lower today following the company announcing the appointment of a new chief financial officer (CFO). At the time of writing, the Cimic share price is trading 1.41% lower at $24.43, amid a broader fall in the ASX.

Who is the new CFO?

The Cimic share price is delivering a lacklustre performance today despite the company advising it has appointed Mr Emilio Grande as its new chief financial officer.

In the release, the company advised that Mr Grande has worked with Cimic Group since 2018. His time with the company has included stints as chief financial officer of Cimic business UGL and deputy chief financial officer of Cimic.

Prior to that, Mr Grande served as chief financial officer of Iridium, a leading global infrastructure developer.

He also spent a decade with Spain’s ACS Group, the parent of the Australian construction company. Mr Grande started in the Florentino Pérez-led ACS Group after leaving Banco Gallego as director of private equity investments in 2011.

Mr Grande will replace Stefan Camphausen, who has served as Cimic CFO for 15 years.

What management said

Cimic Group executive chairman and chief executive officer Juan Santamaria said:

Emilio has more than 15 years’ of international experience across banking and infrastructure in various finance leadership roles.

His experience includes several years with Cimic Group as Deputy Chief Financial Officer and, more recently, Chief Financial Officer of UGL.

Emilio’s involvement with key strategic initiatives at Cimic and across our operating companies has given him deep knowledge of our operations and equips him well for the role. 

About the Cimic share price

Cimic is a multinational contractor. It’s active in the telecommunications, engineering and infrastructure, building and property, mining and resources, and environmental services industries. 

The Cimic share price has lost around 26% of its value in one year.

This comes alongside the cyclical downturn in general construction activities globally as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The Cimic share price dropped to $11.87 in March, its 52-week low, before recovering to today’s level.

Cimic currently commands a market capitalisation of around $8.3 billion.

More reading

• ASX 200 drops 1.4%
• Cimic (ASX:CIM) share price wobbles on $2.2 billion sale news
• ASX 200 down 0.6%: Flight Centre sinks, big four banks lower, Ramelius jumps
• Why the CIMIC (ASX:CIM) share price is pushing higher
• The Cimic (ASX:CIM) share price is down 2% lower today. Here’s why

Motley Fool contributor Eddy Sunarto has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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The A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) share price was uncharacteristically out of form in 2020.

After years of smashing the market, the infant formula and fresh milk company’s shares were thumped by the market.

Over the 12 months, the a2 Milk share price lost 20% of its value.

What happened to the a2 Milk share price in 2020?

It was a very strange year for a2 Milk and its shareholders and was certainly a tale of two halves.

For the first half of the year, a2 Milk was seen as a COVID-19 winner along with Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) and Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN).

The pandemic caused panic buying of infant formula in the ANZ region and over in China. This resulted in a surge in sales and led to the a2 Milk share price hitting an all-time high of $20.05 in July.

Unfortunately, soon after, the tailwinds it had been experiencing quickly turned into headwinds and its shares started to wobble.

When the company released its full year results in August, a few comments by management overshadowed its strong sales and profit growth. It advised of a significant increase in its inventory and warned of uncertainty resulting from COVID-19.

Soon after, a number of the company’s executives decided to offload a large number of shares without explanation.

This included its chairman, its CEO, its chief growth and brand officer, and its Asia Pacific chief executive. The latter, Peter Nathan, offloaded 750,000 shares for almost NZ$15.1 million at the end of August for an average of NZ$20.12. That was 88% of his holding gone, leaving the executive with 100,000 shares. Those NZX listed shares are now trading 40% lower than his sale price at NZ$12.18.

What else is weighing on its shares?

While those events put pressure on its shares, the main damage was done in December when two weeks before the end of the half, the company downgraded its half year guidance.

After maintaining its first half revenue guidance of NZ$725 million to NZ$775 million at its November annual general meeting, on 18 December a2 Milk downgraded this to NZ$670 million. This was largely due to weakness in the daigou channel because of COVID-19 related headwinds.

Unfortunately, management isn’t expecting a quick fix and also downgraded its full year guidance.

The company had previously guided to FY 2021 revenue of NZ$1.8 billion to $1.9 billion with an EBITDA margin in the order of 31%. This represents EBITDA of NZ$558 million to NZ$589 million.

However, this has now been downgraded to NZ$1.4 billion to NZ$1.55 billion with an EBITDA margin of between 26% and 29%. At the low end this would be EBITDA of NZ$364 million and at the high end it would be EBITDA of NZ$449.5 million.

As a comparison, a2 Milk reported a 32.9% increase in EBITDA to NZ$549.7 million in FY 2020.

Where next for the a2 Milk share price?

The a2 Milk share price could go either way in 2021 according to brokers.

However, where the company lands on its guidance range in FY 2021 is likely to have the biggest say in how its shares perform over the next 12 months.

As such, investors will no doubt be watching on with interest when it releases its half year results in February.

More reading

• These are the 10 most shorted shares on the ASX
• These were the best performing ASX 200 shares last week
• 3 top ASX share picks for 2021 from NZ brokers
• Why the A2 Milk (ASX:A2M) share price is down 18.5% in 2020
• What next for the a2 Milk (ASX:A2M) share price?

James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Kogan.com ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended A2 Milk. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of COLESGROUP DEF SET. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Kogan.com ltd. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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