An article published in The Australian this week has highlighted the potential bright future for the Reject Shop Ltd (ASX: TRS) share price. According to the article, the surging demand for discount retail could make the Reject Shop a ‘recession-buster’.

How the Reject Shop could be a recession-buster

The article cited recent research from Morgan Stanley which highlights the dominant position the Reject Shop holds in Australia’s ‘dollar shop’ industry. As a result of the retailer’s strong position in the sector, analysts believe the Reject Shop share price could see it become a $3 billion company over the next decade.

Analysts cited the budget retail niche as being large and highly profitable in other global markets. And, as such, advised that the Reject Shop has been ‘under-earning’ in the Australian market. According to Morgan’s analysis, its new management and a simplified strategy could see the Reject Shop parlay its current annual sales of $900 million into greater growth moving forward.

With traditional clothing and footwear retailers facing troubling times as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, shoppers could increasingly turn to budget retailers like the Reject Shop. Morgan analysts cited the large addressable market, strong unit economics and resilience amid the economic downturn as possible fuel for the Reject Shop’s growth.

To support their thesis, Morgan also lifted its share price target for the Reject Shop to $10. Analysts expect the company’s new management to improve the retailer’s range, cut sourcing and staff costs and take advantage of rent cuts. The Reject Shop share price surged 13.9% on Monday following this positive outlook.

How has the Reject Shop share price been performing?

Prior to Monday’s spike, I believe the Reject Shop share price has been largely flying under the radar over the last 3 months. Despite being sold off during the Febraury/March bear market, the company’s share price has surged more than 220% from its low of $2.40 in late March. It reached a new, 52-week high of $8.50 yesterday before falling back to $7.81 in early trade today. The Reject Shop was also added to the All Ordinaries Index in the June rebalance .

In mid-March, the company released a market update informing investors it had seen a material increase in sales driven by customer concerns surrounding the pandemic. It reported that comparable sales surged 5.7% for the first 11 weeks of the second half of FY20.

Should you buy shares in the Reject Shop?

Given the distressed state of many traditional brick and mortar retailers, I think investors should exercise caution before buying in at today’s Reject Shop share price. Although Morgan Stanley is renowned for quality analysis, it’s important to take into account that the company’s share price has already rallied hard since earlier in the year.

I think a more prudent strategy would be to wait until reporting season before making an investment decision. This would provide a more thorough indication of how the retailer is performing and what its strategy is for the future. 

More reading

• Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today
• 3 ASX shares that could make a big turnaround
• Westpac tips the Australian dollar to continue rising

Motley Fool contributor Nikhil Gangaram has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The SRG Global Ltd (ASX: SRG) share price rose as much as 3.9% yesterday before closing the day flat at 26 cents per share. The recent SRG Global share price movement came after the company announced it had been awarded a major new maintenance contract.

SRG Global is an engineering-led specialist construction, maintenance and mining services group with a global portfolio of work including Emirates Tower in Dubai.

What moved the SRG Global share price yesterday?

Yesterday morning, SRG Global announced it has secured an 8-year contract for the the provision of inspection and specialist maintenance services on the Auckland Harbour Bridge. The contract is with the Auckland System Management Maintenance Alliance, and the ultimate client is the Waka Kotahi New Zealand Transport Agency.

Works under the contract have commenced and will conclude in 2028. In total, the estimated revenues under the contact are approximately NZ$25 million, notwithstanding any additional capital works.

This helps to provide the company with annuity style revenue streams. Accordingly, the company has a strategy of increasing recurring revenues versus project based earnings. This change in strategy has been largely driven by the impacts of the COVID-19 lockdowns. 

In the announcement, SRG Global managing director David Macgeorge commented:

This is a significant award for SRG Global and our New Zealand operations. The Auckland Harbour Bridge is an iconic piece of New Zealand transport infrastructure and we are pleased to extend our long-term relationship with Waka Kotahi New Zealand Transport Agency under this new agreement with the Alliance.

SRG Global share price

The company expects to generate an underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) of $20 million–$21 million in FY20. Additionally, it forecasts a growth of 50% EBITDA for FY21. The growth expectations are due largely to a forward order book of $707 million and an opportunity pipeline valued at $6.2 billion. 

The SRG Global share price has opened today’s trade up 1.96% at the time of writing. This values the company at $113 million with a price to earnings ratio of 18.64. At this price, the company has a trailing 12 month dividend yield of 3.85%.

More reading

• Why the Reject Shop share price could be a recession-buster
• Afterpay share price lower after raising $650 million via institutional placement
• Rio Tinto share price on watch following broker downgrade
• Splitit share price surges 24% higher after record second quarter growth
• Why the IGO share price could outperform other ASX stocks on this gloomy day

Motley Fool contributor Daryl Mather has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) share price has returned from its trading halt and tumbled lower following the release of an update on its capital raising.

The payments company’s shares are currently down almost 3% to $66.15.

What did Afterpay announce?

This morning Afterpay announced the successful completion of the institutional component of its $800 million capital raising.

According to the release, Afterpay has successfully raised $650 million via a fully underwritten institutional placement. It was strongly supported by existing and new shareholders, leading to the placement price rising to $66.00 per new share.

This represents a discount of just 2.9% to its last close price and compares favourably to its underwritten floor price of $61.75 per new share.

Management advised that eligible shareholders, who bid for up to their pro-rata share of new shares under the placement, at the final price, were allocated their full bid on a best endeavours basis.

For the remaining shares under the placement, Afterpay sought to prioritise allocations to existing shareholders and then introduce new shareholders.

It advised that these allocations were based on factors including the likelihood of long term support, the strategic alignment of the investor, support to date, and the size and timeliness of bids into the book.

Why is Afterpay raising funds?

The company revealed that the proceeds will be used to accelerate its investment in growing underlying sales and prioritising global expansion to maximise shareholder value.

Afterpay independent director, Elana Rubin, commented: “The market has responded strongly to our aspiration to further accelerate our investment in growing underlying sales and expanding our global footprint, with the placement being oversubscribed.”

“We are very pleased with the support we have received from our existing shareholders and we welcome our new investors to the register. We look forward to our retail shareholders being able to participate in the SPP in the coming days,” she added.

Afterpay’s share purchase plan (SPP) will give eligible shareholders the opportunity to subscribe for up to $20,000 worth of shares.

These shares will be issued at the lower of the placement price of $66.00 and the 5-day volume weighted average price of its shares up to the SPP closing date.

More reading

• Afterpay and 1 other ASX share to buy and hold beyond 2025
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• ASX 200 drops on return of lockdown in Melbourne
• You’re probably a customer of these 3 ASX shares. Should you own them too?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) share price is pushing higher on Wednesday despite being downgraded by Goldman Sachs.

At the time of writing the mining giant’s shares are up 0.8% to $97.04.

Why did Goldman Sachs downgrade Rio Tinto?

According to a note out of the investment bank, its analysts have downgraded Rio Tinto’s shares to a neutral rating with a $95.10 price target.

Goldman made the move largely on valuation grounds and due to its belief that the iron ore price will soften in the second half.

It feels Rio Tinto’s shares are fully valued on a discounted cash flow basis, trading at 1.05x net asset value (NAV).

In respect to iron ore prices, Goldman commented: “[We] expect iron ore to soften in 2H and we are cautious on aluminium: we forecast a c. 15% fall in the iron ore price in 2H to US$80-85/t on increasing seaborne supply, mainly from Brazil.”

Weakness in the iron ore price can have a major impact on the company’s overall performance given how much the steel making ingredient contributes to its earnings.

Potential nasty capex surprises.

Goldman has also voiced its concerns over a potential catch up in capital expenditures which could cause a negative surprise in 2021.

It commented: “Group capex guidance for 2020 was revised down 20% to US$5-6bn (down from previous guidance of US$7bn) with the 1Q20 production report due to minor COVID-19 related labour delays across projects and the benefits of the weak AUD and CAD.”

“We think the majority of the reduction in spend will be pushed into 2021. We model US$6.8bn for 2021 vs. RIO’s prior guidance of US$6.5bn, we therefore we see a US$1.2bn increase in capex in 2021. However, we see upside risk to our capex estimate based on the recent strength in the AUD and CAD and the impacts from project delays,” Goldman added.

Which miner should you buy?

In the same note, Goldman Sachs retained its buy rating and lifted its price target on BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares to $38.20.

The broker prefers BHP over Rio Tinto for a number of reasons.

It explained: “Of the majors, we prefer BHP over RIO on valuation (BHP looks more attractive at 0.95x NAV, vs. RIO on 1.05x), we prefer the commodity mix (iron ore + copper + met coal + oil, vs. RIO’s iron ore + aluminium + copper) and more attractive margins (c.51% group EBITDA margins, vs. RIO at c.47%).”

“We also expect BHP’s Pilbara business will surpass RIO’s over the next 2 years on both capital intensity and margins, we expect BHP to continue its stronger operating performance, and BHP has more growth options (mostly in met coal and oil) to create value for shareholders over the long run,” it concluded.

More reading

• Why I see good value in the BHP share price today
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• Why brokers have just downgraded BHP and these ASX stocks today
• These ASX dividend shares will help you beat low interest rates
• ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: Afterpay, Tech push ASX 200 back above 6,000

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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In morning trade the Splitit Ltd (ASX: SPT) share price has surged higher after the release of its second quarter update.

At the time of writing the buy now pay later provider’s shares are up 24% to $1.70.

How did Splitit perform in the second quarter?

Just as we have seen with Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) and Sezzle Inc (ASX: SZL) this week, demand for Splitit’s platform was exceptionally strong during the June quarter.

This led to the company reporting Merchant Sales Volume (MSV) of US$65.4 million for the second quarter. Which was a record 260% increase on the prior corresponding period and a 176% lift on its first quarter MSV.

This ultimately led to Splitit reporting gross revenue of US$2.4 million for the quarter, representing a whopping 460% increase on the prior corresponding period and 246% on the first quarter.

What were the drivers of its growth?

Strong growth was achieved in both North America and Europe, with MSV rising 261% and 240%, respectively, in these markets.

At the end of the period there were 1,000 merchants on its platform, which is more than double the number it had this time last year.

It was a similar story for its customer numbers, with total unique shoppers growing 85% over the 12 months to 309,000.

Another positive is that these customers are spending more. Splitit reported an average order value of US$893, up 44% on the prior corresponding period. However, it is worth noting that its repeat shopper metric is heading the wrong way. It has fallen to 10.2% from 13.6% in the first quarter.

Brad Paterson, CEO of Splitit commented: “June saw a continuation of the strong business momentum we experienced in April and May. Consumers are making better use of their existing credit to preserve cash, while demand from higher value merchants is ramping up, supported by the accelerated shift towards eCommerce as a result of COVID-19.”

“While we continue to tightly manage our expenses in light of global economic uncertainty, our business model supports more efficient consumer budgeting during these uncertain times, and continues to deliver enormous benefit to merchants by significantly improving consumer conversion on their sites,” he added.

Today’s gain means the Splitit share price is now up a staggering 750% from its March low of 20 cents.

More reading

• Does Afterpay have a competitive advantage?
• Afterpay expects sales to double to $11bn and launches $800m cap raise
• Afterpay share price hits $67! Are BNPL shares in a bubble?
• Can ASX fintech shares withstand a falling market?
• 3 ASX payments shares that could double your money

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Sezzle Inc. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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ASX mining stocks are likely to outperform this morning but it’s the IGO Limited (ASX: IGO) share price that will be under the spotlight.

ASX miners will be supported after commodity prices firmed overnight even as futures pricing is tipping a weak start for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO).

IGO could get a bigger boost though. The nickel and gold miner’s flagship Nova project beat management’s full year production guidance.

Production going nova

Management reported that it produced 7,181 tonnes of nickel in the June quarter to take its full year output to 30,436 tonnes. This is slightly ahead of its guidance of 27,000 to 30,000 tonnes.

It was by-products copper and cobalt that was the bigger standout though. The miner produced 3,210 tonnes of copper in the quarter with full year production hitting 13,772 tonnes. This compares to management’s forecast of up to 12,500 tonnes.

Meanwhile, cobalt production for the latest quarter came in at 277 tonnes to take the full year number to 1,142 tonnes. Management initially thought FY20 production would top out at 950 tonnes.

“At Nova, production of all metals exceeded guidance, with nickel production slightly higher than the top end of guidance, while copper and cobalt production were ~10% and ~20% higher, respectively,” said IGO’s chief executive Peter Bradford.

Going for gold

What this means is that operating costs at Nova may be lower than what analysts were expecting given that the miner would sell by-products to cover the cost of producing its key commodity, nickel.

IGO also produces gold at its Tropicana joint-venture project. The mine produced just over 102,000 ounces of the precious metal in the quarter to take its full year number to 463,118 ounces.

IGO’s share of the gold sold in FY20 was 141,169 ounces and the figures are within management’s production forecast of 450,000 to 500,000 ounces and gold sold estimate of 135,000 to 150,000 ounces for the year.

Convoluted outlook for base metals

The nearer-term outlook for base metals like copper and nickel are dividing analysts. These commodities are closely linked to global production, which have been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Coronavirus cases in many key economies continue to escalate at unprecedented rates and large parts of Victoria are going into a second lockdown.

This means base metal producers like the OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL) share price, South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) share price and Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) share price may be in for a bumpy ride.

Foolish takeaway

However, IGO has a slight advantage over many of its peers thanks to its gold exposure through Tropicana.

This could help the miner weather the upcoming storm a little better given that the price of gold will benefit from the growing uncertainty.

IGO didn’t provide any other details like costs or average prices it sold its commodities at. That will come on July 29.  

More reading

• Afterpay and 1 other ASX share to buy and hold beyond 2025
• Is there value in the Scentre share price?
• Why I see good value in the BHP share price today
• Why the CBA share price is worth watching this quarter
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of OZ Minerals Limited and South32 Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Althea Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: AGH) share price is on watch this morning after the company announced it has launched online sales of medicinal cannabis. Patients can now order products online via the ‘Althea Concierge’ platform and have them delivered directly to their doors. This eliminates the need to visit a doctor or pharmacy in order to obtain the treatment on an ongoing basis.

What does Althea do? 

Althea was founded in 2017 in Melbourne and holds licenses to import, cultivate, produce and supply medical cannabis.  The company has seen strong growth in customer numbers since launching. By the end of March this year, Althea had supplied medical cannabis to over 5,000 Australian patients. The company also has a manufacturing facility in Canada, Peak Processing Solutions. This facility produces ‘Legalisation 2.0’ products such as edibles, beverages, and cosmetic applications. 

How do online cannabis sales work?

The Althea Concierge platform, which is a TGA registered medical device, has been comprehensively updated to facilitate online sales and interactive, customisable treatment plans. Used in conjunction with telemedicine, the platform allows doctors to prescribe Althea medical cannabis products. Patients pay for their prescriptions online and medication is then delivered directly to their doors. This then eliminates the ongoing need for multiple visits to doctors and pharmacies . 

The new interactive treatment plan feature allows doctors to issue personalised treatment plans directly to patients’ phones. This provides patients with customised dosage reminders and allows them to record their usage and provide ongoing feedback to their doctors. Anonymous patient symptom data will contribute to a body of evidence in support of Althea medications. 

Althea CEO, Josh Fegan said, “We are very excited about this latest update to the Althea Concierge platform. The ability for contactless sales is probably the biggest development yet for medicinal cannabis in Australia”. Althea plans to roll out the updated version of its Concierge platform in the United Kingdom, where the company launched in June 2019, in the coming months. 

What is the outlook for the Althea share price?

Althea has been expanding rapidly since its inception. It has gained significant numbers of Australian patients and prescribers as well as launched in the UK. The company has also commenced manufacture in Canada and begun supplying products to Germany. It certainly appears as if Althea is set to make its mark on the medicinal cannabis industry. In the first half of FY20, the company reported a 963.8% increase in revenues. Investors are eagerly awaiting full year results to see if Althea can continue its trajectory.  

More reading

• Althea share price lifts as cannabis market growth predicted
• ASX cannabis shares see mixed recovery

Motley Fool contributor Kate O’Brien has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Here, we look at 2 ASX shares that I think would make strong additions to your ASX share portfolio: Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) and Carsales.Com Ltd (ASX: CAR).

Both have proven business models in their respective market niches. Both also continue to grow strongly internationally, and I believe are well placed for above average earnings growth over the next 5–10 years.

Afterpay

The Afterpay share price has witnessed an amazing recent run on the ASX. It has risen from $8.90 in late March in the early phase of the coronavirus pandemic, to now be trading at $68.00. That’s a gain of over 600%!

This buy now, pay later (BNPL) provider has continued to perform well financially, despite challenging market conditions. This was confirmed by a strong market update in late May. In particular, its US operations have been growing strongly. Nearly 9 million US consumers now use the Afterpay platform.

Tencent Holdings, which owns messaging app WeChat, recently became a major shareholder in Afterpay. This also has definitely pleased the market. The WeChat app is hugely popular in the Asian market and Afterpay could potentially leverage WeChat as a means to gain inroads further down the track.

Also, a recent partnership with Apple will enable the Afterpay platform to be integrated with Apple Pay. This is slated to make the Afterpay platform even easier to use, and could assist in driving further uptake, especially in the massive US market.

Despite the strong rise in the Afterpay share price, Afterpay is still in my buy zone. It is still very early days for Afterpay in the US market, and Europe and Asia are further expansion points in the future.

Carsales

The Carsales share price was hit hard during the early stage of the coronavirus pandemic, however rallied strongly since late March. The online automotive classifieds provider has now regained nearly all of its share price losses since its 12-month high in mid-February. This ASX share has continued to perform solidly in recent months, despite difficult trading conditions.

In a recent trading update, Carsales revealed that total revenue is predicted to be flat for FY 2020. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation, however, is expected to rise slightly. I think that this is a commendable result, particularly when you consider the devastating impact that the pandemic had on the automotive sector in its early phase.

I believe that Carsales continues to be well placed to outperform the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over the longer term. It has a strong entrenched position in the Australian market, with a growing local population, and has strong potential to grow its overseas operations.

More reading

• Is there value in the Scentre share price?
• Why I see good value in the BHP share price today
• Why the CBA share price is worth watching this quarter
• Why Etherstack and these shares were the most traded on the ASX last week
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday

Motley Fool contributor Phil Harpur owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO and carsales.com Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended carsales.com Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) share price has been an interesting one to watch in 2020.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has bounced back strongly since the March bear market. Although the Scentre share price has partially recovered from its March lows, this has been to much lesser degree than the ASX 200.

I thought I’d take the chance to dive into what exactly Scentre does and how the Scentre share price is performing in 2020.

What does Scentre Group do?

Put simply, Scentre is the owner and operator of Westfield shopping centres across Australia and New Zealand. It is also an Australian real estate investment trust or ‘REIT’.

This means that, under normal circumstances, Scentre is a strong ASX dividend share. REITs are required to payout at least 90% of yearly profits to shareholders under the trust structure.

Scentre is heavily concentrated in the retail sector given its $56 billion in retail real estate assets under management.

How has the Scentre share price performed this year?

Unfortunately for investors, Aussie shopping centres have not been a great investment this year. The Scentre share price has fallen nearly 44% this year to just $2.15 per share. 

While retailers like JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX: JBH) have soared in value, this has been predominantly due to significant online sales.

Without heavy foot traffic, it stands to reason that Aussie shopping centres will see a fall in income. That’s because fewer shoppers means tenants (i.e. retailers) may be unable or unwilling to pay their usual rent throughout the coronavirus pandemic. This translates into less rental income for Scentre and lower free cash flow available for dividend payments.

Currently, no one knows what will happen in the next 3 months, let alone the next 3 years. So how can we say whether the Scentre share price is good value right now?

Are there better-priced REITs on the ASX?

These are very unusual times, particularly given the restrictions that still exist on the use of many public spaces. If an ASX share has fallen 40% lower, I tend to think there are smart investors who possibly know something I don’t.

The best option in my books is to look at relative value. The COVID-19 restrictions should (in theory) affect all retail REITs. Therefore, comparing the Scentre share price against its peers can help tell us if its good value.

I think Vicinity Centres (ASX: VCX) and SCA Property Group (ASX: SCP) can be regarded as fairly comparable retail REITs to Scentre Group.

The Scentre share price trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 9.67 with an 8.93% dividend yield. It also boasts a market capitalisation of $11.16 billion which is larger than both Vicinity ($6.5 billion) and SCA ($2.4 billion).

SCA Property shares trade at a relatively more expensive P/E ratio of 12.98 while Vicinity trades at a lowly 4.37.

I don’t think dividend yields are really worth comparing given the uncertainty around FY20 distributions at the moment.

Foolish takeaway

From a quick analysis, I don’t think the Scentre share price is a great value buy right now. Retail real estate is one of the sectors that could continue to be challenged by COVID-19 restrictions for quite some time.

It appears that the Vicinity Centres share price is relatively cheaper than Scentre. Combined with the relative uncertainty over dividends this year, I don’t think I’ll be buying Scentre shares at $2.15 per share.

More reading

• Afterpay and 1 other ASX share to buy and hold beyond 2025
• Why I see good value in the BHP share price today
• Why the CBA share price is worth watching this quarter
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• ASX 200 drops on return of lockdown in Melbourne

Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Scentre Group. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Australian Finance Group Ltd (ASX: AFG) share price has remained relatively flat despite the mortgage aggregator releasing its latest quarterly update yesterday. 

The update showed AFG recorded its largest quarterly lodgement result of almost $17 billion in the quarter ended June 2020, which is a 30% increase on the same time last year. Total lodgements were $5.2 billion in April, $6.1 billion in May, and $5.5 billion in June.

The group reports that banks closing branches and redirecting resources to deal with hardship cases has meant increased demand for brokers from customers looking to make changes to their financial arrangements.

Refinancing activity was strong early in the June quarter and there has been a flurry of activity from first home buyers aided by government incentives. Refinance applications accounted for 28% and 36% of lodgements in April and May, before falling to 23% in June. First home buyers accounted for 12% and 14% of lodgements in April and May, increasing to 21% in June.

Major banks winning business

AFG has witnessed a significant shift in business towards the major lenders over the past few months. After peaking at around 70% in the quarter, the highest level since 2017, flows of business to major lenders settled back down to 60% in the month of June.

Australia and New Zealand Banking GrpLtd (ASX: ANZ) was the big winner among the majors, with 9.92% market share last quarter. ANZ’s market share rose as high as 36.87% in May thanks to cash back offers and low fixed rate products. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) benefitted from consistency of service and back office efficiency which saw its market share rise to 23.66% at the end of June, up from 14.7% last quarter.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) saw market share drop to 12.38% at the end of June from 20.14% at the close of the third quarter due to a blow-out in turnaround times. Processing bottlenecks began to impact turnaround times for the major by the close of the quarter leading the non-majors to take back some ground.

About the AFG share price

AFG is gaining market share with lodgement volumes increasing as Australians increasingly turn to mortgage brokers to help manage their financial needs.

AFG’s proposed merger with Connective looks set to proceed following merger clearance from the ACCC. The merger will result in the largest mortgage aggregator in Australia, accounting for almost 40% of mortgage brokers operating in the country.

The AFG share price plummeted from a high of $2.96 in February to a low of 92 cents in March, but has since gained 80% to trade at $1.66.

More reading

• Why the CBA share price is worth watching this quarter
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Motley Fool contributor Kate O’Brien has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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