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When it comes to Luckin Coffee (OTCMKTS:LKNCY), it's not all about pointing fingers, bad actors, or failed price charts and the like. Luckin stock is an important wake-up call. In a market made up of stocks, it's always smart to hedge those sure things or the next, next big thing, to avoid the possibility of an ever-present painful burn. Let me explain.Source: Ploy Makkason / Shutterstock.com For more than a few growth stock investors, Luckin Coffee was supposed to be the next Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX). Shares of the China-based upstart certainly looked ready to make good on that promise for a short while.Luckin had massive growth. The company smartly utilized today's mobile technology and brick-and-mortar locations to their benefit to win customers. The icing on the cake? Shares were relatively new to the market. Luckin only went public in 2019. And often, most growth stories of Luckin's caliber see their largest stock gains during those first few years.InvestorPlace – Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsSo, what could possibly go wrong for investors looking to get in near the ground floor of LKNCY and cash in? It turned out, a whole lot. Lessons LearnedNot exactly a secret, accounting shenanigans concocted by Luckin's top brass and uncovered during the height of the coronavirus dosed Luckin's well-brewed narrative. Shares rightfully plummeted. It's not even worth repeating the fallout or the ongoing fabrication which has been done ad nauseam and continues to this day. * 7 Dividend Stocks to Buy for Beginners to Income Investing If there's any lesson to be learned, you're not going to find it on a balance sheet, income statement, or price chart. Despite our country's leadership nasty political saber rattling with China, the moral in LKNCY isn't about not investing in untrustworthy Chinese companies. Luckin was a cheat of course. But to be very fair, the United States has had plenty of homegrown companies lie, steal, and worse.Valeant Pharmaceutical is one memorable U.S.-based high-flier which imploded for similar improprieties. Enron was another high-profile mess. And let's not forget Boeing (NYSE:BA) or PG&E Corp (NYSE:PCG) for recent transgressions still impacting investors today.The reminder the Luckin Coffee story brings us is that investing is risky. Stocks are called risk-assets, right? That might be hard to remember right now if you're riding high in Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), some other trillion-dollar club member, or even the broader market. But don't make the mistake of forgetting or dismissing that feature when buying stocks.Luckin Coffee used to be the property of growth investors. Now shares are in the hands of those that see a potential turnaround, value-play or alternatively, are eyeing the stock for bankruptcy based on other favored evidence.Regardless of growth versus value or bull versus bear, putting blind trust in a company's financial statements, a price chart, an analyst recommendation, etc., and then buying or shorting stock on the back of those type beliefs, can end very badly. But it doesn't have too. Luckin Stock Weekly Price Chart Source: Charts by TradingViewLooking at the weekly chart of Luckin shares, I'm technically inclined to see a low forming. The bullish observation is supported by bearish sentiment that would be hard-pressed to get much worse. No disrespect, but heavily-lopsided analysis warning investors away from Luckin by roughly a dozen of my colleagues at InvestorPlace over the last couple weeks is evidence of an extreme hard at work.Yet on the price chart, conditions are improving. After jumping 130% in less than two weeks to confirm a small double bottom, LKNCY has constructively pulled back in a bullish-looking consolidation that's finding support at the 62% retracement level of a very volatile trading month for shares. Given the combined indications, Luckin looks great as a contrarian play. But that's just one of many opinions out there.The truth is it doesn't matter if I see a bullish bottom using optimistic optics or alternatively, someone else believes the other shoe is sure to drop based on the same price chart. Similarly, it's unimportant if one investor concludes LKNCY looks more attractive at a valuation of $650 million, while another despises it for that very reason.Bottom-line, respect it takes two parties, a buyer and seller, to consummate a trade. Also appreciate every strategy has its day in the sun. And know this, too: If you buy and sell stocks you will be proven wrong along the way for a multitude of reasons. It won't be a one-time incident, either.But far from warning against having exposure to risk assets and no matter your style or outlook, I'd simply recommend purchasing a call contract, a put, or a limited risk spread to avoid a truly harmful burn. That should be a point of agreement among all types of investors in Luckin and beyond.Chris Tyler is a former floor-based, derivatives market maker on the American and Pacific exchanges. Current investment accounts under management do not currently own positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. The information offered is based on his professional experience but strictly intended for educational purposes only. Any use of this information is 100% the responsibility of the individual. For additional market insights and related musings, follow Chris on Twitter @Options_CAT and StockTwits More From InvestorPlace * Why Everyone Is Investing in 5G All WRONG * America's 1 Stock Picker Reveals His Next 1,000% Winner * Revolutionary Tech Behind 5G Rollout Is Being Pioneered By This 1 Company * Radical New Battery Could Dismantle Oil Markets The post Is Luckin Stock Finally a Buy? appeared first on InvestorPlace.
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Inovio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:INO) is a hot stock to watch right now.The shares of INO stock are up more than 647% from a year earlier.Source: Ascannio / Shutterstock.com In some ways, that is surprising, given that the pharmaceutical company doesn't currently have any products on the market. The stock jumped after Inovio entered the race to create a coronavirus vaccine. The company is currently conducting clinical trials and has seen promising results.But after the stock rose so suddenly, does it still make sense to buy INO stock? After all, the shares have already fallen from their 52-week high set in June.InvestorPlace – Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsAnd other biotech stocks show more promise than Inovio and seem closer to actually producing an effective vaccine. Let's look at three reasons to sell INO stock: 1\. Inovio's Phase 1 Results Were DisappointingThere are over 140 coronavirus vaccines currently in development, but Inovio has emerged as an early player in the vaccine race. So far, the company seems to be making solid headway on its vaccine, INO-4800. * 7 Dividend Stocks to Buy for Beginners to Income Investing INO-4800 utilizes DNA that encodes for messenger RNA which encodes the SARS-CoV-2's S-protein. During Phase 1 of the company's clinical trials, 34 out of 36 patients developed an immune response.None of the patients had severe reactions to the vaccine, and the only real side effect any of them experienced was redness around the injection site. So there are no safety concerns about INO-4800.However, Inovio didn't provide any data on how many participants developed neutralizing antibodies or T-cell responses. For that reason, it's unclear how effective the vaccine actually is. Consequently, several analysts downgraded the stock after the company's Phase 1 results were released. 2\. Other Companies Are Closer to Developing a VaccineAlthough Inovio was an early player in the race to develop a vaccine, it still lags behind other companies. For instance, Moderno (NASDAQ:MRNA) began its Phase 1 triak a few weeks before Inovio.And this week, Moderno kicked off its Phase 3 clinical trial. Moderno will enroll 30,000 healthy participants in the trial at 89 different sites across the country.Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) also announced it has started a late-stage study for a coronavirus vaccine with the German company BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX). If Pfizer's trial proves effective, the U.S. government agreed to buy 100 million doses for $1.95 billion by the end of the year.Inovio is combining its Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials and plans to begin the study later this summer. But its efforts still lag behind those of several of its competitors. 3\. Inovio Wasn't Selected for the Warp Speed ProgramIn June, the U.S. government selected five companies for its Warp Speed Program. This program is part of the government's effort to bring a coronavirus vaccine to market quickly.Inovio was not selected to be part of this program. Washington chose to include AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Merck (NYSE:MRK), Moderna, and Pfizer in Warp Speed. The government didn't specify the criteria it used to select these five companies, but it seemed to prefer seasoned vaccine developers.Government funding is an important part of vaccine development. In conjunction with Warp Speed, Moderna has received $483 million of funding, while AstraZeneca received $1.2 billion, and Novavax obtained $1.6 billion.Inovio has yet to receive any funding from Project Warp Speed. However, the Department of Defense did grant the company $71 million of funding to support the development of a device called Cellectra. That is the device which is used to inject INO-4800. The Bottom Line on INO StockInovio seems to be a legitimate contender in the race to develop a coronavirus vaccine, but there are reasons to be concerned about the company. The lack of information regarding the neutralizing antibodies produced by those who received the company's vaccine raises serious questions about the effectiveness of INO-4800.And if the company's vaccine fails to live up to the hype, it's likely the stock's recent gains won't last. So now probably isn't the time to invest in INO stock.Jamie Johnson is a personal finance freelance writer and has been writing for InvestorPlace since mid-2019. She writes for a number of other well-known financial sites, including Credit Karma, Quicken Loans and Bankrate. As of this writing, Jamie Johnson did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * Why Everyone Is Investing in 5G All WRONG * America's 1 Stock Picker Reveals His Next 1,000% Winner * Revolutionary Tech Behind 5G Rollout Is Being Pioneered By This 1 Company * Radical New Battery Could Dismantle Oil Markets The post 3 Reasons to Sell Inovio Stock appeared first on InvestorPlace.
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Is the Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) share price a buy?
The buy now, pay later business has performed incredibly well since the March 2020 crash when the Afterpay share price dropped to $8.90. It has gone up 670% since then. What an amazing run.
The most recent update that Afterpay has released was its FY20 fourth quarter update when it announced a capital raising and a selldown by the founders of the company.
Afterpay said that it delivered underlying sales of $3.8 billion in the fourth quarter of FY20, 127% higher than the prior corresponding period. Afterpay said this was a record quarterly performance and reflected an accelerated shift to ecommerce since the impacts of COVID-19 emerged globally.
The strong final quarter led to underlying sales of $11.1 billion in FY20 – up 112% compared to last year.
That growth was strong, there’s no denying that. It goes some of the way to justify the Afterpay share price growth.
The number of active customers also increased strongly. Active customers rose by 116% during FY20 to 9.9 million. The more customers that Afterpay has the more potential transactions that can go through its platform. In the US it reached 5.6 million active customers and in the UK it hit the 1 million milestone.
Active merchants rose by 72% over FY20 to 55,400 with 202% growth in the US. The UK passed 1,000 merchants after its first year. The more merchants there are on the Afterpay system the more attractive it is to customers. There are good network effects.
Expansion into Canada and an in-store offering in the US is expected sometime in the first quarter of FY21.
Underlying sales growth is an important part of Afterpay delivering on its long-term potential. But it needs to be doing it profitably.
Afterpay said that its merchant revenue margins for FY20 are expected to be in line with or better than the margin in the first half of FY20 and FY19.
The net transaction loss for FY20 is expected to be up to 0.55%. The Australia and New Zealand net transaction loss has remained at “historically low” levels. The net transaction loss within the US and UK regions has improved in the second half of FY20.
The net transaction margin for FY20 is expected to be approximately 2%. Afterpay indicated this underpins a pathway to longer term profitability for the overall business.
Afterpay is expecting FY20 underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to be between $20 million to $25 million. This measure excludes ‘one-off items’, share-based payments and foreign currency.
The biggest question is how much profit will Afterpay be able to generate in the future? Is the current Afterpay share price a reasonable reflection of its long-term future?
Will Afterpay be able to maintain its merchant margin? On the face of it, the merchant is handing over a hefty sum for each transaction. But Afterpay can argue that it is generating leads for businesses, it increases the transaction size and may improve loyalty.
There are lots of other competitors out there for Afterpay. Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P), Sezzle Inc (ASX: SZL), Splitit Ltd (ASX: SPT), Klarna and so on. When there’s a lot of supply for a product it normally leads to a reduction in price. Does Afterpay have a strong brand that customers will stick to? Or would merchants switch to another provider?
It’s a hard one to call because the idea of getting an instalment service for free is new.
I don’t know what a fair price for Afterpay is. You can’t invest for the short-term, you can’t know for certain which way share prices will go. Does today’s Afterpay share price reflect its long-term outlook? I don’t know, so I’m happy to leave it to other people to invest in. I think there are easier opportunities like Pushpay Holdings Ltd (ASX: PPH).
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Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of PUSHPAY FPO NZX and ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. recommends Sezzle Inc. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended PUSHPAY FPO NZX and Sezzle Inc. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.
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Despite a disappointing finish to the month, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) recorded a 0.5% gain to end it at 5927.8 points.
Unfortunately, not all shares on the index were climbing higher with the market in July. Here’s why these were the worst performing ASX 200 shares during the month:
The AVITA Therapeutics Inc (ASX: AVH) share price was the worst performer on the ASX 200 last month with a 32.5% decline. Investors were selling the regenerative medicine company’s shares following the release of its fourth quarter and full year sales update. For FY 2020, AVITA’s total revenue came in at approximately US$14.32 million. Although this was a 160% increase over FY 2019’s sales, it appears as though investors were expecting an even stronger sales result.
The Adbri Ltd (ASX: ABC) share price wasn’t far behind with a 30.5% decline. The catalyst for this decline was news that Alcoa of Australia will not be renewing its lime supply contract when it expires at the end of June 2021. This agreement has been ongoing for decades and appears to have sparked fears that other customers may switch to lower cost imports as well. The news didn’t go down well with brokers. This was particularly the case with UBS, which downgraded its shares all the way from a buy rating to a sell with a reduced price target of $2.00. The Adbri share price ended the month at $2.21.
The AMP Limited (ASX: AMP) share price was out of form and sank 21.5% lower in July. The majority of this decline came on the final day of the month when the financial services company revealed that the coronavirus had impacted its performance in FY 2020. According to AMP’s first half update, it expects to report underlying profit from retained businesses in the range of $140 million to $150 million. This was below the market’s expectations and driven by market volatility and a credit loss provision in AMP Bank.
The IDP Education Ltd (ASX: IEL) share price was a poor performer and crashed 19.8% lower last month. Investors were selling the shares of the provider of international student placement services and English language testing services due to a spike in coronavirus cases. They appear concerned that this recent spike both at home and globally could impact the company’s performance greatly in FY 2021.
Motley Fool resident tech stock expert Dr. Anirban Mahanti has stumbled upon five stocks he believes could be some of the greatest discoveries of his investing career.
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James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Avita Medical Limited and Idp Education Pty Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Avita Medical Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.
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The COVID-19 pandemic is poised to make the upcoming reporting season one to remember for some time. Since late-March, many companies on the ASX have been pulling their full-year earnings guidance and have been unable to provide assurances to investors. On that note, let’s take a look at 7 ASX shares that I’ll be keeping a close eye on during reporting season.
The Afterpay share price has been a bellwether of overall market enthusiasm during the pandemic. With online shopping and eCommerce platforms thriving during the lockdown period, it will be interesting to see how Afterpay has harnessed the momentum and how the company plans to grow as the overall economy struggles.
BHP boasts a strong balance sheet and low-cost operations with earnings coming from iron ore, copper and coal. The company recently reported a record-breaking quarterly output of iron ore on the back of robust demand from Chinese steel mills. With iron ore being its biggest money maker, BHP will be one to watch this reporting season, especially for how the company treats its dividend.
Mirvac owns and operates a commercial property portfolio that is exposed to office, retail and industrial properties, which, together, account for 59% of group earnings. The coronavirus pandemic has wreaked havoc on retail and other commercial rental incomes so I’ll be keen to find out exactly how Mirvac is going at protecting its income streams.
The pandemic has created an unprecedented challenge for travel and leisure companies like Flight Centre. The company has completed a $700 million equity raising and reduced its annualised operating expenses by $1.9 billion. With domestic travel looking to have a protracted recovery, reporting season will help reveal the full impact the pandemic has had on Flight Centre and how the company plans to recover.
This company has emerged as a leader during the pandemic, which has seen the ResMed share price make stellar gains for the year. The company tripled its ventilator production to more than 52,000 units in order to fulfil an urgent contract from the Australian Government. It will be interesting to see how the company has performed during this period and how it is looking to sustain growth beyond the pandemic.
Kogan.com is fast becoming a household name, thanks in part to the coronavirus pandemic. During the lockdown period, Kogan’s active customer base grew to over 2 million, with an additional 126,000 customers being added in May alone. The online retailer also completed a $115 million capital raising in order to accelerate future acquisition opportunities. With the Kogan share price already looking like investors have priced in the company’s recent success, it will be fascinating to see whether Kogan has any upside surprises left to reveal.
During the initial lockdown period, many people flocked to complete home improvements and also set up home offices. Wesfarmers owns both Bunnings and Officeworks, which are 2 companies that obviously benefitted from these trends. On the other hand, the company’s Target and K-Mart stores have suffered from reduced foot traffic resulting from lockdowns.
With the S&P/ASX200 (ASX: XJO) rallying since the peak of the pandemic, many people have thrown out fundamentals and harnessed the momentum through speculation. As a result, the share prices of many companies on the ASX (in my opinion) have been overinflated, whilst others have also been oversold.
I think this reporting season will no doubt reveal the reality and provide investors with some great opportunities. I think a good exercise for investors would be to compile a watchlist of shares they wish to pay close attention to during reporting season in order to take full advantage of these opportunities when they arise.
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Nikhil Gangaram has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Kogan.com ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Wesfarmers Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group Limited, Kogan.com ltd, and ResMed Inc. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.
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With cord-cutting showing continued strength amid the novel coronavirus and the recession, Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) stock remains very well-positioned to benefit from that trend.Source: JHVEPhoto/Shutterstock.com In the short- to medium-term, Roku's financial results should also be lifted by the boycott of social media websites by some advertisers and the high ad spending to promote internet TV services, such as those of Disney (NYSE:DIS) and AT&T's (NYSE:T) HBO. Cord Cutting Is SurgingAccording to a study by Roku, more than 30% of U.S. households do not subscribe to traditional pay TV services and another 25% are receiving less extensive services than previously. Nearly 50% of households in the latter category plan to eliminate their subscriptions within the next six months.InvestorPlace – Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips * 7 Dividend Stocks to Buy for Beginners to Income InvestingSome might say that we should be skeptical about the survey's findings because it was conducted by Roku. But in general, the companies that provide traditional pay-TV services are reporting similar trends. For example, AT&T recently reported that its net total of premium video subscribers dropped by about 5%, or 886,000, in the second quarter versus the same period a year earlier.Meanwhile, Comcast's (NASDAQ:CMCSA) video residential subscriber total fell in the first quarter by a net 388,000 to 19.9 million. In Q1 of 2019, Comcast lost only 107,000 net residential video subscribers, indicating that the cord-cutting trend is greatly accelerating. And suggesting that the trend will accelerate even more in Q2, Comcast warned in April that its cable results would be further hurt by the poor U.S. economy.Interestingly, Comcast cited the poor economy, not the lack of live sports, as the reason it expected its cable revenue to be weak going forward. And, according to Roku, less than 20% of cord cutters say they will return to paid TV when live sports return. So, it seems like the cord cutting trend is unlikely to slow greatly now that live sports have returned. Headwinds for ROKU StockAmong the gigantic companies now refusing to buy ads from Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) are Ford (NYSE:F), Clorox (NYSE:CLX), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), and Unilever (NYSE:UL). And several huge companies, including Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), and Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) have announced a hiatus on all social media ads.After announcing boycotts of large social media websites, these huge companies will need to find ways to reach the many millions of young people who no longer watch TV on the traditional paid TV services. Roku is definitely an obvious candidate.Roku stock should also benefit from huge increases in spending on ads by new streaming TV channels. According to a report by iSpot, online advertising spending tripled in 2019, exceeding $1 billion. Ad buys in the first quarter of 2020 also increased as the pandemic forced more people to stay home.Since cord cutters are likely to be attracted to the new streaming services and many of them watch Roku, the latter company should be a big beneficiary of this surge.And to the extent the ads on Roku cause its users to sign up for the new channels via Roku, the company will also benefit. That's because the firm gets a commission on subscriptions that are launched from its service. Snap's Strong Results Bode Well for RokuSnap (NYSE:SNAP) has much in common with Roku; both platforms are good ways for advertisers to reach young people, and both platforms have largely avoided the political controversies that embroiled Facebook and Twitter (NYSE:TWTR).Consequently, I believe that Snap's better-than-expected Q2 results, including a 17% year-over-year increase in revenue, bodes well for Roku and suggests that those who are bearish on Roku's ability to grow its ad business during the pandemic are incorrect. The Bottom Line on Roku StockRoku remains well-positioned to benefit from cord-cutting, and its results should also be boosted by the social media ad boycotts and increased spending on ads for new streaming channels. Trading at a reasonable trailing price-sales ratio of 14, Roku stock is worth buying at its current levels.Larry Ramer has conducted research and written articles on U.S. stocks for 13 years. He has been employed by The Fly and Israel's largest business newspaper, Globes. Larry began writing columns for InvestorPlace in 2015. Among his highly successful, contrarian picks have been Roku, oil stocks and Snap. You can reach him on StockTwits at @larryramer. As of this writing, he owned shares of Roku. More From InvestorPlace * Why Everyone Is Investing in 5G All WRONG * America's 1 Stock Picker Reveals His Next 1,000% Winner * Revolutionary Tech Behind 5G Rollout Is Being Pioneered By This 1 Company * Radical New Battery Could Dismantle Oil Markets The post There Are Plenty of Reasons to Love Roku Stock Now appeared first on InvestorPlace.
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Once again, a large number of broker notes hit the wires last week. Some of these notes were positive and some were bearish.
Three sell ratings that caught my eye are summarised below. Here’s why top brokers think investors ought to sell these shares next week:
According to a note out of Citi, its analysts have retained their sell rating and $11.70 price target on this iron ore producer’s shares following its fourth quarter update. Although the broker has upgraded its estimates to reflect Fortescue’s FY 2021 shipments guidance, it isn’t enough for a change of rating. The broker continues to believe that the market is pricing in a long term iron ore price that is unrealistic. The Fortescue share price ended the week at $17.41.
Analysts at Ord Minnett have downgraded this iron ore producer’s shares to a sell rating with a reduced price target of $2.00. The broker notes that Orocobre has worked very hard with its cost cutting, but this has still not been enough to offset the sharp decline in lithium prices. Ord Minnett also has concerns that costs could rise because of the pandemic. Which, given the oversupply of lithium, could mean another tough 12 months for the company in FY 2021. The Orocobre share price last traded at $2.97.
Another note out of Citi reveals that its analysts have downgraded this plumbing parts company’s shares to a sell rating with a reduced price target of $8.55. According to the note, Citi is expecting the pandemic to result in tough trading conditions that stifle Reece’s earnings growth over the next couple of years. Particularly given the weakening housing market activity and softening house prices. The Reece share price ended the week at $9.99.
When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*
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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.
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When trading volumes surged to record levels, that may have signaled the end of Nio's (NASDAQ:NIO) rally on the stock market. NIO stock peaked at $16.44 in early July, driven by three positive catalysts.Source: xiaorui / Shutterstock.com Strong monthly delivery numbers, China-based stocks trading at new highs, and hype on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) gave Nio shares a lift.With profit-taking dominating the stock's direction, will Nio trade at 16 – $20 in the future?InvestorPlace – Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips U.S.-China Tensions Hurt Nio StockLast week, China, as predictable as it is, retaliated after the U.S. ordered the closing of the China consulate in Houston. * 10 Cybersecurity Stocks We Need Now More Than Ever China responded by ordering the closure of the U.S. consulate in Chengdu. The poorly timed tensions between the two mighty countries is an unlucky development for Nio shareholders.Macro political risks will put pressure on the stock's valuation. And now that all three catalysts are gone, chances are high that Nio will underperform in the near-term.Strong selling with Nikola (NASDAQ:NKLA) shares is not helping Nio, either. The company filed to sell up to 53,39 million shares. After the announcement on July 17, the stock broke down from the $50 support level.Chances are high that Nikola will trade back to Initial Public Offering levels in the $10 range in the months ahead. Unfortunately, the cash raised is perfectly timed to benefit Nikola and not its shareholders.Its drop officially marked the end in the Electric Vehicle hype that began in May 2020 and ended at the beginning of July 2020. Goldman Sachs DowngradeAnalysts are often late in their buy and sell calls but investors cannot ignore Goldman Sachs' (NYSE:GS) bearish note on July 17. The firm warned that Nio's valuation was too high. It cited that enthusiasm for EV adoption in China will not increase delivery volumes from previous months. Plus, profit expectations are no different over that period.Goldman started a severely bearish tone when it set $7.00 price target.Fundamentally, Nio's liquidity is stronger than ever. The company secured a new $1.5 billion credit line on July 10. This effectively removes any bankruptcy risks.Management learned from a few quarters ago when sales were slumping, its cash on hand was running low. The lockdown in China hurt sales and put Nio in a dangerous liquidity crunch. Now that China re-opened, the worst is behind it. And Nio is in a good position to invest in its business with the available cash. Growth CatalystsNio may expand its sales force, open a few more small stores, and bolster its online site to grow unit sales in China. Strong deliveries may lift the stock again.Still, a euphoria on EV stocks fueled the last rally. Without strong buying interest for Tesla stock and the recent plunge in Nikola stock, Nio will more likely settle at lower levels.Tax credits and other incentives in China may give Nio a gradual lift in sales in the months ahead. If Nio falls back to the high single-digits, investors may be on Nio's EV dominance in China at a better price. Price Target and Your TakeawayAccording to Stock Rover, Nio's profitability is still very poor:Stock Industry S&P 500 Quality Score 8 55 79 Gross Margin -15.20% 17.00% 29.00% Operating Margin -132.60% 4.30% 13.00% Net Margin -138.60% 3.00% 8.50% To Goldman Sachs' credit, margins are still too weak. Nio will have to expand its business and increase its addressable market in China and worldwide first. Otherwise, the investment is still a dangerous speculation with downside risks.Nio still needs production scale and demand growth to reach profitability. The negative numbers in the above table suggest that the stock is still risky speculation.Conservative investors should stay away from Nio shares for now. Let the speculators bet on the rebound instead.Disclosure: As of this writing, the author did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * Why Everyone Is Investing in 5G All WRONG * America's 1 Stock Picker Reveals His Next 1,000% Winner * Revolutionary Tech Behind 5G Rollout Is Being Pioneered By This 1 Company * Radical New Battery Could Dismantle Oil Markets The post Why Investors Should Stay Away From Nio Stock for Now appeared first on InvestorPlace.
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