• Qantas (ASX:QAN) adds 360 flights a week

    Large airplane on tarmac

    Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) has wasted no time ramping up its operations after Queensland announced a reopening of its border.

    The Queensland Government revealed Tuesday it would allow travellers from NSW to enter without a mandatory COVID-19 14-day quarantine period from Tuesday 1 December.

    Qantas and its budget brand Jetstar then announced 207 return flights per week between NSW and Queensland would be added from that day. Another 153 would be added between Victoria and Queensland if that border is also reopened.

    “This is news that many families have been waiting so long to hear,” said Qantas chief Alan Joyce.

    “New South Wales and Victoria have done such a great job getting the virus under control that it makes complete sense to open the borders to Sydney and Melbourne.”

    Currently there are just 36 flights operating out of Sydney into Queensland and 4 from Newcastle. Just 2 weekly flights run between Melbourne and Townsville as the only route between the two states.

    The additional Queensland flights are another step in the airline’s comeback from coronavirus hibernation. Only on Monday Qantas started a further 272 weekly flights between NSW and Victoria as soon as that border was reopened.

    Has Qantas found a way out of hibernation?

    The new flights will mean by Christmas the airline’s domestic operations will be back to 60% of pre-COVID levels. Early next month, 30 of the 35 domestic airport lounges will also have reopened.

    The market was pleased for Qantas, pushing its shares up 3.54% to trade at $5.56 as of 2.09 pm AEDT.

    Joyce said there is already massive demand for travel to Queensland.

    “We can’t wait to see a repeat of the heart-warming scenes in Melbourne and Sydney this week with families reuniting after months apart, this time in Queensland,” he said.

    “Queenslanders can expect to welcome a lot more visitors in the next few months.”

    Airline Route Weekly return flights from 1 Dec Lead-in one-way fare
    Qantas Sydney-Brisbane 63 $199
    Jetstar Sydney-Brisbane 44 $85
    Qantas Sydney-Gold Coast 8 $153
    Jetstar Sydney-Gold Coast 64 $69
    Qantas Sydney-Hamilton Island 4 $233
    Jetstar Sydney-Hamilton Island 7 $129
    Qantas Sydney-Cairns 7 $236
    Jetstar Sydney-Cairns 24 $144
    Jetstar Sydney-Sunshine Coast 12 $79
    Jetstar Sydney-Townsville 7 $124
    Jetstar Newcastle-Gold Coast 4 $61
    Jetstar Sydney-Proserpine 3 $146
    Jetstar Melbourne-Proserpine 4 $146
    Qantas Melbourne-Brisbane 28 $225
    Jetstar Melbourne-Brisbane 35 $122
    Qantas Melbourne-Gold Coast 7 $192
    Jetstar Melbourne-Gold Coast 44 $114
    Qantas Melbourne-Cairns 4 $287
    Qantas Melbourne-Sunshine Coast 7 $199
    Jetstar Melbourne-Sunshine Coast 15 $113
    Jetstar Melbourne-Townsville 7 $125
    Jetstar Melbourne Avalon-Gold Coast 4 $99
    Source: Qantas; Table created by author

    The country now needs the certainty of interstate borders remaining open, said the aviation chief, and trust testing and contact tracing systems for any spot outbreaks.

    “We renew our calls for a consistent set of rules that apply nationwide to prevent hasty, patchwork decisions on borders being made.”

    International flights are still a way off, although the early success of 3 COVID vaccines has given the aviation industry hope.

    On Monday, Joyce told a television show that Qantas would make vaccination compulsory for overseas flights.

    “Talking to my colleagues in other airlines around the globe, I think it’s going to be a common theme,” he said.

    “What we’re looking at is how you can have a vaccination passport, an electronic version of it, that certifies what the vaccine is. Is it acceptable to the country that you’re travelling to?”

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  • I thought I’d seen the worst financial policy in years. Then this…

    A hand protecting a pink piggy bank from being smashed by a hammer, representing the prevention of bank or government raids on super

    As my family and friends will tell you, I’m a pretty laid-back character.

    I don’t rile easily, don’t tend to get stressed, and I’m pretty happy to go with the flow.

    But man, was I worked up yesterday!

    Truth be told, I’m still worked up, today.

    And it’s over – wait for it – the Superannuation Guarantee levy.

    Funny thing to get angry about, right?

    Actually no, I don’t think so.

    I think if you’re not angry about it, you don’t yet understand the issue.

    So let me explain.

    From the time compulsory Super was introduced, the rate has slowly increased.

    Originally 3% of your pay, then 6%, it’s slowly climbed to be 9.5% of your wage or salary today.

    And it’s supposed to keep going up, maxing out at 12% by 2025.

    Why?

    Two reasons, really, that are interrelated.

    First, to give you a comfortable retirement. Despite our best intentions, experience tells us we’re really bad at saving enough money for that purpose (that was the case before Super and remains the case in other countries that don’t have a similarly compulsory scheme).

    Second, to relieve the pressure on the federal budget in future, particularly as the population grows and ages.

    Seems pretty straightforward, right?

    And yet, the government has let it be known they’ll be reconsidering either pausing or scrapping that gradual increase in May’s federal budget.

    There’s been no shortage of reasons put forward. Chief among them: the economy needs the money, some people might have higher incomes in retirement, and that workers could better use the money now, say for a house deposit.

    If that sounds like a grab bag of ‘hey, let’s throw everything at it, and see if we can make it stick’, you’re on the right track.

    Except that those reasons are flimsy at best, in my view.

    And just as you can’t cross a chasm in three short jumps, three (or more) weak reasons don’t add up to one good one.

    But we’ll get to that.

    First, let’s remember why Super is so important.

    Before Super, we didn’t save anywhere near enough for retirement.

    Hell, even with Super we haven’t learned: a Mozo report from early this year reported that 75% of Australians don’t have enough savings to deal with a family crisis.

    What do you reckon the odds area that, if Super increases are scrapped, we save that money voluntarily?

    And overseas, where similar schemes aren’t compulsory, most people have way too little saved for the time they stop working.

    Super is imperfect, but it’s probably the single best example of a behavioural ‘nudge’ – putting a system in place to help us do what we otherwise couldn’t, or wouldn’t do without it.

    Despite our very small population, globally speaking, we have the fourth highest pool of retirement savings in the world.

    In short: Super works.

    We should protect it with everything we’ve got.

    Which makes the attacks on it somewhat bizarre to me. 

    Well, except for this: The problem is that the aforementioned retirement savings pool has vested interests salivating, seeing it as a big, fat piggy bank they can raid for their own purposes.

    Except that it’s not their piggy bank. It’s ours!

    (If you’re a cynic, feel free to insert your own comment about politicians and their tendency to freely spend other people’s money.)

    But let’s go through the ‘reasons’:

    “The economy needs the spending”

    The economy always needs the spending! When was the last time you heard the business lobby say “Yeah, look, we have enough economic activity… why don’t you guys save it, instead?”

    It starts with “N” and ends with “ever”, right?

    Yes, we’re going through a rough patch. Yes, extra spending would be nice. But hey, the government already encouraged people to be poorer in retirement by raiding Super during the depths of COVID-19.

    Maybe the government should encourage businesses to pay workers more? Or to pay more tax (on profits – so it wouldn’t impact those making a loss and doing it tough)? Maybe they could lower tax on low-income workers so they can spend more?

    No, just Super? I see…

    “Some people might have higher incomes in retirement”

    You know what I love about this one? All of a sudden, the boffins can see clearly into the future. They know how long we’ll work, how much we’ll earn and what Super’s investment returns will be.

    I mean, wow. Can I borrow the crystal ball, please?

    It’s also related to another ‘reason’: “Some people might have Super left over when they die, so we’re obviously contributing too much”. 

    Sure. So let’s penalise the working single mum in a part time job, just in case the lawyer on $200k doesn’t use up all of his Super on cognac and cigars before he dies!

    “It could better be used for a house deposit”

    This one is a cracker. Now, I’m a big fan of people owning their own homes. It’s an important piece of financial stability. And we should do what we can to make that happen for as many people as possible.

    I mean who can argue with that, right?

    But isn’t it just slightly interesting that bugger-all else is being done to help home affordability, save for a Mickey Mouse ‘save a little bit extra inside Super’ scheme to help young people buy their first homes?

    No comment on negative gearing, capital gains taxes, bank borrowing limits or the structural costs of land and construction. No consideration of debt levels. Just throw more (of our) money at it.

    In sum, these are weak reasons all coalescing around a big pot of money, all wanting a share.

    Are they legitimate issues?

    Yes, in the main.

    But the framing is insidious. 

    Did you notice that the government and the selected vested interests weren’t exactly hot on these topics before?

    If we really want to solve for low wages, poor economic growth and/or unaffordable housing, why weren’t other policies already being put in place?

    Where’s the industry policy? The trade policy? Education policy?

    Why not, for example, raise wages, cut taxes on low-income earners, or add stimulus.

    “Oh, we couldn’t possibly do that, because…” is the usual answer.

    “But we can raid your retirement, because you might not notice” seems to be okay, though.

    Funny that.

    Worried about people having too much Super?

    Great. Cap it. Tax the income (above a generous tax-free threshold). Tax the balance at the point of inheritance.

    “Oh no, we can’t do that. Better to limit the amount being contributed for factory workers, shop assistants and coppers and firies.”

    I see.

    Where are the microeconomic reforms? Where’s the 10-year blueprint for productivity increases? Where’s the trade policy to make sure higher-wage jobs are created in export-oriented industries? 

    Why are these issues not on the agenda until they see a pot of money they can raid?

    Politics is an insidious business.

    The spinners know well that we’ll usually swallow whatever rubbish they sell us, as long as they frame it well.

    Remember, there’s no inquiry into ‘housing affordability’, ‘appropriate wage levels for low-income earners’, ‘the cost to the budget of tax-free Super incomes for high income earners’ or ‘structural changes to grow the economy’.

    If the government and the vested interests cared about those issues, they’d launch those inquiries and give those speeches.

    It’s what Hawke, Keating and Howard did.

    Instead, they’re starting at the end, seemingly wondering “What could we do with the money that would otherwise be set aside for Australians’ retirement?”

    (And, yes, for the record, this isn’t party-political. It’s policy. I’m giving the current Liberal/National government a whack, just as I did Labor on their unfair and short-sighted franking policy at the last election, so this isn’t a partisan issue.)

    I’m in a unique position to comment. No, I’m not the foremost expert on any of these policy areas, but I’ve developed expertise in one particular area: investing; which is the very definition of forgoing consumption today, in return for more consumption, later.

    I’ve spent my professional life trying to stop people ‘spending now and suffering later’, and yet our government – the mob we should expect to be putting our long term welfare first – is acting more like a credit card company than a responsible financial counsellor.

    So here’s the thing: if some of the reasons for raiding Super make sense to you, and have you agreeing with the logic, ask yourself one question: what other policy interventions are available, and why is Super the most appropriate one.

    It’s the question that none of those in the ‘raid Super’ camp have addressed.

    And that should make us sceptical. And mad as hell.

    Please, don’t let them take a huge chunk of your retirement income without a fight.

    #HandsOffSuper

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  • Why the ResApp (ASX:RAP) share price is edging higher

    rising medical asx share price represented by woman stretching happily in bed

    ResApp Health Ltd (ASX: RAP) shares are edging higher today after the company updated the market on its recent meeting with the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for SleepCheck. In the minutes after market open, the ResApp share price reached an intra-day high of 9.3 cents but have partially retreated. At the time of writing, the ResApp share price is trading 2.22% higher at 9.2 cents.

    What’s driving the ResApp share price?

    The ResApp share price is on the move today after the company advised it has received a clear path to gain regulatory approval for its SleepCheck app to be used in the United States.

    ResApp will pursue a 510(k) regulatory pathway for SleepCheck as a prescription only device. The 510(k) approach is the fastest route to market and relies on prior clearance that was granted for a predicate device.

    The company stated that it plans to commence a human factors study in the United States beginning the third quarter of FY21. A human factors study employs representatives to assess the product’s user interface design. The study requires a minimum of 15 people to run and is much shorter and cheaper than traditional clinical studies. ResApp in the past has carried out similar studies in Australia.

    The 510(k) application is scheduled to be submitted at the end of the third quarter of FY21, with a decision from the FDA due 90 days after.

    If successful in attaining the 510(k) clearance, ResApp will move to the next steps of making SleepCheck available to consumers, through a telemedical visit. Healthcare providers would conduct a virtual consultation and prescribe SleepCheck to sleep apnoea suffers. A specific code will be given out to patients allowing them to download SleepCheck from the Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) store or Alphabet Inc‘s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) Google Play store.

    What is SleepCheck?

    SleepCheck is direct-to-consumer mobile application that assesses a person’s risk of obstructive sleep apnoea by analysing their breathing and snoring. It requires no accessories or hardware other than the user’s smartphone to make an assessment.

    It is estimated that 42 million American adults suffer from sleep disordered breathing (SDB). This includes three in ten men and almost one in five women who possibly have sleep apnoea. Current predictions suggest around 75% of SDB cases remain undiagnosed.

    Other developments

    As part of its announcement, ResApp also reported it has received advice on the requirements to progress its over-the-counter (OTC) approval. The FDA stated that this process will entail further clinical and human factors studies to support its application. In response, ResApp will seek to commence a US laboratory-based clinical study during the fourth quarter of FY21.

    The company will provide further updates in the coming months including the broader application’s progress.

    What did management say?

    ResApp CEO and managing director, Dr Tony Keating, commented on the meeting. He said:

    We expect to commence the US human factors study in beginning of next year. The study will be short and cost-effective, and will provide the required data for our 510(k) submission. ResApp will also move forward with the US clinical study needed for OTC approval of the product.

    Sleep apnoea is a major health concern in the US, exacerbated by a large number of undiagnosed cases. SleepCheck would provide a low cost, easily accessible screening tool that could potentially reduce the health and economic impact of an increasingly common respiratory condition.

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    Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Alphabet (A shares), Alphabet (C shares), and Apple. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Alphabet (A shares), Alphabet (C shares), and Apple. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • ASX energy shares surge ahead as oil rises to 9-month high

    Barrels of oil with rising arrow, oil price increase

    The share price of ASX oil companies rose today after crude oil prices are trading near their highest levels since March, as signs that COVID-19 vaccinations in the United States could be underway within three weeks. 

    The ASX Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) is up by more than 3.5% in today’s trading, amid a broader rise in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) of 1.2% at the time of writing. 

    Why the rally in oil prices

    Shares on the ASX broadly rallied today after AstraZeneca Plc (NYSE: AZN) became the latest major pharmaceutical company to report successful late-stage results for a potential COVID-19 vaccine. Markets in the United States and around the world were also bolstered by the announcement that vaccinations in the US, the most affected country in this pandemic, could be underway within three weeks. 

    However, not everything is rosy.

    The prospect of an early vaccine not only affected the spot oil market, but has also reshaped the oil futures curve, with nearby futures prices rallying more than far-dated ones. This suggests that the market is anticipating a short-term surge in oil demand, but still subdued on the prospects of long term demand. 

    This sentiment was shared by rating agency Fitch, which released a report saying that although it expected improving trends in oil demand, its 2021 outlook for the North American energy market is negative, reflecting the large number of companies that forecasted negative outlooks in its survey. 

    Over the last three weeks, the energy sector has benefitted from various vaccine news. Hopes initially rose when Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) announced its vaccine success in early November. The gold price, on the other hand, has slumped over the same period as growing optimism over an effective vaccine has rotated investors’ demand away from safe assets.

    Oil prices today

    These are the current oil prices at the time of writing:

    • West Texas Intermediate for January delivery rose 1.5% to $43.43 a barrel 
    • Brent for January settlement is at $46.39 a barrel, up by 1%

    Which energy shares have risen today?

    The three biggest oil companies on the ASX had a good day today.

    The Woodside Petroleum Ltd (ASX: WPL) share price has risen by 3.5% to $22.77 at the time of writing. The Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) share price has jumped over 10% to $1.90, while the Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) share price has increased 5% to $5.04. 

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  • 3 small cap ASX tech shares growing at a rapid rate

    A man drawing an arrow on a growth chart, indicating a surging share price

    At the small end of the market there are a number of companies which are growing at a very strong rate.

    Three small cap tech shares that investors might want to get better acquainted with are listed below. Here’s how they have been performing:

    Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (ASX: BTH)

    Bigtincan is a growing provider of enterprise mobility software. This software allows sales and service organisations to increase their sales win rates, reduce expenditures, and improve customer satisfaction. Bigtincan has been experiencing strong demand for its platform in 2020 from some major companies such as Nike and Red Bull. This led to it growing its annualised recurring revenue (ARR) by 53% year on year to $35.8 million in FY 2020. Pleassingly, more of the same is expected in FY 2021, with management providing guidance for ARR of $49 million to $53 million. This is still scratching at the surface of a sales engagement platform market estimated to be worth $6 billion a year by 2021.

    ELMO Software Ltd (ASX: ELO)

    ELMO is a cloud-based human resources and payroll software company. Its increasingly popular software streamlines a range of processes such as employee administration, recruitment, remuneration, and payroll through a single a unified platform. ELMO currently has operations in both the ANZ and UK markets, which management estimates are worth $2.4 billion and $6.8 billion per year, respectively. In FY 2021, ELMO is aiming to deliver ARR in the range of $72.5 million to $78.5 million. This will be up 31.6% to 42.4% from FY 2020’s ARR of $55.1 million.

    People Infrastructure Ltd (ASX: PPE)

    People Infrastructure is a leading workforce management company. It provides innovative solutions to workforce challenges. Although the company was impacted by the pandemic in FY 2020, it was still able to deliver strong earnings growth. For the 12 months ended 30 June, the company reported normalised EBITDA of $26.4 million. This was up 49.2% on the prior corresponding period. And while it hasn’t been able to provide guidance for FY 2021, management remains focused on driving growth both organically and inorganically.

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  • Are these beaten down ASX shares in the buy zone?

    businessman sitting at desk with head in hands in front of computer screens with falling financial charts, asx recession

    Although the Australian share market has recovered strongly in recent weeks and is close to moving into positive territory for the year, not all shares have performed as positively.

    Two ASX shares which are still trading materially lower than their 52-week highs are listed below. Are these beaten down shares in the buy zone?

    Bravura Solutions Ltd (ASX: BVS)

    Bravura Solutions is a provider of software products and services to the wealth management and funds administration industries. Its shares have fallen heavily this year and are down a disappointing 46% from their 52-week high. This has been driven largely by management’s underwhelming guidance for FY 2021. It has warned that the pandemic could lead to flat profits this year.

    One broker that thinks investors should be taking advantage of the weakness in the Bravura share price is Goldman Sachs. It recently reiterated its buy rating and put a $4.50 price target on its shares.

    The broker believes Bravura is well positioned due to its strong market position in existing product offerings (which have a high degree of recurring revenue), its emerging microservices ecosystem strategy, and strong net cash position. It believes the latter provides the company with the flexibility to invest in the new microservices ecosystem and pursue further acquisitions.

    Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS)

    This telco giant has been in the news this week after announcing plans to split its business into three separate entities. This will comprises InfraCo Fixed, InfraCo Towers, and ServeCo. Management believes the restructure would enable the company to take advantage of potential monetisation opportunities for its infrastructure assets, which could create additional value for shareholders.

    This plan has gone down well with investors and also with brokers. For example, Goldman Sachs has reiterated its buy rating and $3.60 price target on the company’s shares. It has also reaffirmed its forecast for a 16 cents per share fully franked dividend in FY 2021 and beyond. Which, based on the current Telstra share price, would provide investors with a 5.2% dividend yield.

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  • Macquarie’s model portfolio of ASX stocks to hold in the post-COVID recovery

    Model Portfolio, Diversification

    A great transition is underway and it’s prompted a leading broker to make a number of changes to its model portfolio.

    The transition I am referring to isn’t from the Trump to Biden presidency, although that’s good news. It’s the move towards a COVID‐19 normal world as multiple promising vaccines are in the wings.

    This is the key reason why the S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO) is rallying recently. But the types of ASX stocks that could outperform in 2021 might look very different from those leading the charge in 2020.

    Changes to model portfolio

    This is why Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) made changes to the stocks it’s holding in its model portfolio. A model portfolio represents a group of stocks that the broker is recommending investors hold to beat the market.

    “Stocks may pullback after recent gains, especially given rising cases in the US and Europe, but with multiple effective vaccines, we think investors should be positioning for the end of the pandemic,” said the broker.

    Prepare for a jump in bond yields

    One effect from a COVID-free world is rising bond yields, noted Macquarie. This is the key driver for the broker adding the Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN) share price, the Computershare Ltd (ASX: CPU) share price and NIB Holdings Limited (ASX: NHF) share price to its model portfolio.

    “Effective vaccines reduce the need for more monetary easing,” explained Macquarie.

    “This allows bond yields to catch up with the cycle. The ISM and copper/gold ratio imply yields should be closer to 2%.”

    Why bond yields can climb further

    While the 10-year US government bond yield has rallied hard recently, history shows it could still spike higher.

    The broker pointed out that this has happened in 2013 and 2016 even after the 10-year yield jumped above its 200-day average.

    “With US yields just above the 200 day, it is not impossible that US yields spike 50-100bps over the next 6-9 months,” said Macquarie.

    “We would expect to see Australian and other global yields move with the US.”

    ASX stocks impacted by rising yields

    General insurer Suncorp, share registry services group Computershare and health insurer NIB are among the stocks that will benefit from a spike in bond yields. It’s worth noting that the CPU share price is most sensitive of the three to changes in yields.

    On the flipside, Macquarie dropped three ASX stocks that will lose out from rising yields. These include the GPT Group (ASX: GPT) share price, the Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) share price and the Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price.

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  • Is the Cochlear (ASX:COH) share price a long term market beater?

    cochlear share price

    According to the United Nations, the global population aged 60 years stood at approximately 962 million in 2017.

    This was more than twice as large as in 1980 when there were 382 million older persons worldwide.

    The intergovernmental organisation is now expecting this figure to more than double again by 2050. At this point, it is projecting that the global population aged 60 years will reach almost 2.1 billion.

    This population shift is widely expected to lead to increased demand for healthcare services over the next three decades. Which could be great news for Australian healthcare shares.

    One that has been tipped as a big winner from this tailwind is Cochlear Limited (ASX: COH).

    Why Cochlear?

    Cochlear is a leading global hearing solutions company. It manufactures some of the highest quality and most popular cochlear implant hearing devices in the world.

    While 2020 has been a difficult year because of the pandemic’s impact on elective surgeries, a recent update appears to demonstrate that the worst is now over for the company. Furthermore, with potentially effective COVID-19 vaccines not far away, 2021 looks set to be a significantly better year for Cochlear.

    Looking further ahead, the expected increase in the over-60 population over the coming decades will be good news for Cochlear. This is because as people age, their hearing will invariably fade and require some form of assistance.

    One broker that is positive on the company is Macquarie. It recently put an outperform rating and $241.00 price target on the company’s shares. Its research appears to show that Cochlear has been winning market share.

    In addition to this, its survey of US audiologists shows that its products are the most highly rated in the industry. The broker feels this bodes well as activity levels recover from the COVID disruption.

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    James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Cochlear Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Cochlear Ltd. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why the Nanosonics (ASX:NAN) share price is charging higher

    The Nanosonics Ltd (ASX: NAN) share price has been a strong performer on Tuesday.

    In afternoon trade the infection prevention company’s shares are up 3.5% to $6.71.

    Why is the Nanosonics share price charging higher?

    Investors have been buying the company’s shares today following the release of its annual general meeting update.

    At the event, the company’s chairman and chief executive officer both spoke positively about the future.

    Nanosonics Chairman, Maurie Stang, commented: “As we progress into FY21, notwithstanding our customers facing challenges in various markets, we are now seeing some very encouraging indicators that underscore our belief in the fundamentals of this business.”

    This sentiment was echoed by CEO, Michael Kavanagh. While he notes that the company’s performance was impacted greatly by the pandemic in the fourth quarter of FY 2020, it has rebounded strongly from the crisis.

    He explained: “We certainly do not believe that COVID-19 has negatively impacted the underlying fundamentals for the business and indeed the COVID-19 impacts experienced in the fourth quarter of FY20 have significantly reversed in the first 4 months of FY21.”

    FY 2021 trading update.

    During the first wave of COVID-19 in North America, Nanosonics struggled to gain access to hospitals.

    Pleasingly, things have been very different during the second wave. Management notes that hospitals in the region appear better equipped to manage the impact of the pandemic now. As such, ultrasound procedure volumes requiring High Level Disinfection have not been impacted to the same degree as experienced in the first wave.

    Though, management has warned that this does not guarantee that future waves will follow the same pattern in North America or other regions.

    Nevertheless, as things stand, purchases of Consumables (Sonex/NanoNebulant) by end customers continued to recover in the first four months of FY 2021 as hospital departments reopened and ultrasound procedure volumes increased towards pre-fourth quarter levels.

    Unit purchases of Consumables by end customers in the first four months of FY 2021 were up 4% compared with prior corresponding period and 25% compared with the last four months of FY 2020.

    In addition to this, the company has continued to grow the footprint of its trophon product. It advised that the number of new trophon units installed globally was up 16% in the first four months of FY 2021 compared with the last four months of FY 2020.

    It notes that this recovery was experienced in both North America, which was up 14%, and EMEA, which was up 64%.

    Another positive is that the recovery in its new installed base growth means that GE Healthcare in North America will resume its purchasing of capital equipment by end of the first half.

    Overall, management remains positive on the future, concluding: “Despite ongoing periods of uncertainty we remain optimistic about the future and investments in our growth agenda continue across the business.”

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    James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Nanosonics Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nanosonics Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why the Oil Search (ASX:OSH) share price is up 48% in November…and gaining again today

    Price of Oil Rising

    The Oil Search Ltd (ASX: OSH) share price is on a tear this month, up 48% so far in November. And it’s gaining again today, up 3% in afternoon trading.

    November’s price action will come as a relief to longer-term shareholders, who watched Oil Search’s share price tumble 75% from 2 January through to the 23 March COVID-19 lows.

    Despite November’s strong performance, the Oil Search share price remains down 46% year-to-date. 

    By comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 (INDEXASX: XJO) is down 1% so far in 2020.

    We’ll look at what’s driving November’s gains below. But first…

    What does Oil Search do?

    Oil Search operates all of Papua New Guinea’s oil fields. It owns 29% of the ExxonMobil-operated PNG LNG Project, a major exporter to Asian markets. The company also holds interests in the Elk-Antelope and P’nyang gas fields. And in 2018, Oil Search acquired and now operates a portfolio of oil leases in Alaska, United States.

    Oil search counts some of the most successful oil and gas operators in the world as its joint venture partners. The company was established in Papua New Guinea in 1929, and shares first began trading in Australia in 1974.

    Why is the Oil Search share price surging this month?

    Several factors could be driving the Oil Search share price up this month. The company’s 19 November announcement of a 33% increase in its contingent resources in its Alaskan Pikka oil field. The rising price of crude oil. And increasing expectations that crude prices could hold onto recent gains, or continue to climb higher.

    As Ryan Fitzmaurice, commodities strategist at Rabobank, explains (quoted by Bloomberg):

    The overall ‘risk-on’ sentiment is being driven by more positive vaccine news this weekend, and oil prices in particular are being propelled higher by aggressive ‘short’ covering, especially in the ICE Brent contract… The oil market will [also] be focused on the OPEC+ meeting which is set for next week and which will likely begin to garner a great deal of attention as the week goes on.

    Brent crude prices kicked off November at US$37.46 per barrel. Today Brent is trading for US$46.55 per barrel, a price increase of 24%.

    Oil Search’s profits (and hence share price) are leveraged to the price of oil. Meaning when the price of oil goes up or down, the Oil Search share price is likely to rise and fall by a greater margin. That’s because the company’s fixed costs largely remain the same, regardless of the price of oil. So, any big increase, like the 24% price rise in November, lands almost entirely on the bottom line.

    As Fitzmaurice points out, the next big determiner for the Oil Search share price will be the outlook for the global crude supply. We should know more about that following the upcoming OPEC+ meeting next week.

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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