• Don’t be blinded by gold fever…consider these ASX dividend shares instead

    digital asx share price graph against backdrop of gold nuggets

    The financial headlines today are awash with gold.

    You’ve likely already been inundated with that news, so I’ll keep this part brief.

    The yellow metal hit an all-time high in US dollars overnight. At time of writing it’s trading for US$1,962 (AU$2,725) per troy ounce.

    Gold’s current bull run is being driven by record low interest rates, ballooning government debts, and growing geopolitical uncertainty surrounding western relations with China. And, of course, the insecurity thrown up by the COVID-19 pandemic.

    In short, a cornucopia of tailwinds is seeing retail and institutional investors — not to mention major central banks — add to their gold holdings. Some of that is in the form of physical bullion, though many retail investors are turning to gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

    As you’d expect, this has seen the share price of most gold miners rocket.

    Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), for example, is up 44.3% so far in 2020.

    And gold mining giant Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM), with a market cap of $30.4 billion, has gained 24.8% year to date.

    Both shares are up in intraday trading today as well.

    Should you jump on the gold bandwagon?

    It’s tempting to buy gold and gold shares following a new wave of good news. But as the old investor adage goes, ‘If it’s in the news, it’s in the price’.

    That doesn’t mean gold, and the companies that mine it, can’t go higher from here. But with greed abounding, it brings up unpleasant memories of bitcoin in the latter months of 2017. That greed saw the cryptocurrency soar to unprecedented heights before crashing hard in 2018.

    At the moment, most analysts — and everyone I spoke to at last weekend’s barbecue — are greedy for a piece of the gold profits.

    But as legendary value investor Warren Buffett advises, you should be, “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

    Noting that equities outperform gold over time, Buffett has also labelled investors buying gold when the price is rising as ‘foolish’. Of course that’s foolish without the capital F!

    While I don’t expect gold to fall by more than 80%, like bitcoin did, it may well be approaching its peak. And I certainly wouldn’t rule out a fall of 10% or more from the current price.

    That means gold miners’ share prices will again be determined by how much and how affordably they can dig the yellow metal from the ground. And not by a lot of hype over its new record prices.

    A Foolish alternative

    If you don’t have a high appetite for risk and aren’t comfortable jumping in and out of ASX shares, you’re probably better off turning your attention to yield shares.

    These are shares that pay regular dividends. And if you invest in the right ones, you’ll ideally see their share prices rise as well.

    Sydney-based Kardinia Capital has increased its exposure to ASX dividend shares. And the fund has an admirable track record. Since launching in May 2006, the Bennelong Kardinia Absolute Return Fund has an annualised return of 8.36%.

    As quoted by Bloomberg, co-founder and portfolio manager Kristiaan Rehder said, “We are not just looking at companies that offer an attractive yield, we are also looking for companies that have a sustainable dividend yield. They are both important.”

    Rehder went on to explain the fund is going beyond the traditional ASX dividend shares, like Atlas Arteria Group (ASX: ALX). It also holds JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX: JBH) and Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG). He likes these shares because, “they offer heightened dividends with relative certainty of payouts due to resilient and strong earnings.”

    If you’re looking to add an ASX dividend paying share to your portfolio, you may want to consider Collins Foods Ltd (ASX: CKF).

    With a market capitalisation of $1.15 billion, the company is a KFC franchisee in Australia, the Netherlands and Germany. It’s also a Taco Bell franchisee in Australia and Sizzler franchisee in Asia. Collins is the owner of Sizzler restaurants in Australia.

    In its annual results, released in June, Collins’ final dividend remained flat at 10.5 cents per share. That works out to a trailing yield of 2.1%, fully franked, meaning you can deduct the corporate tax rate from any taxes you may owe. Or even get some money back from the ATO depending on your personal financial situation.

    Like most ASX shares, the Collins Foods share price tumbled from late February into mid-March. But it’s since rebounded strongly. From its low on 23 March, Collins’ shares are up 127.8%. Year-to-date the share price is up 11.1%.

    As for gold fever? Avert your eyes.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

    *Returns as of June 30th

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    Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Collins Foods Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Latest ASX entrant mixes BNPL with eCommerce

    toy forklift lifting blocks stating IPO

    United States-based Zebit is the the latest buy now, pay later (BNPL) entrant to seek a place on the ASX, with a listing planned for September. According to the Australian Financial Review (AFR), Zebit will be looking to raise $42 million which would value the company at $200 million. But Zebit is not just looking to muscle in on the BNPL space, it is also an eCommerce retailer a la Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN), selling some 90,000 products. 

    Strong growth in eCommerce and BNPL

    BNPL providers have seen an upswing in already strong transaction volumes as a result of the shift to eCommerce and a renewed focus on budgeting in the wake of COVID-19. The likes of Afterpay Ltd (ASX:APT), Sezzle Inc (ASX: SZL), and Openpay Group Ltd (ASX: OPY) have reported increasing customer numbers and revenue in recent market updates. Kogan, too, has benefitted from the move to online shopping, with sales increasing 103% year on year in April and May. 

    New listing combines eCommerce and BNPL 

    Zebit is like a combination of Afterpay and Kogan operating in the US market. It offers products from some 75 suppliers through its website with an in-house BNPL solution available to customers. The company does not actually have any inventory or warehouses of its own, but instead puts customer orders through to suppliers which then despatch products on Zebit’s behalf. 

    Zebit’s BNPL offering specifically targets customers who can’t get credit elsewhere, according to the AFR, with almost all customers using it because their credit ratings aren’t high enough to qualify for mainstream credit products. According to Zebit, this market is underserved by BNPL operators such as Afterpay and Sezzle. 

    Zebit could be on to something – it estimates this market consists of 154 million underserved US customers creating a US$85 billion market. But bad debts are a fact of life in this market and Zebit saw bad debts of 17.4% as a proportion of revenue in FY19. According to the AFR, the company is in the process of rolling out a new registration system to reduce the proportion of bad debts. 

    Will Zebit work?

    Zebit is seeking to combine BNPL services with something like an online department store selling everything from fridges and beauty products to jewellery and electronics. By targeting a traditionally underserved market, it may be able to expand market share rapidly. In order to grow profitably, however, Zebit will need to carefully manage bad debts. 

    5 stocks under $5

    We hear it over and over from investors, “I wish I had bought Altium or Afterpay when they were first recommended by The Motley Fool. I’d be sitting on a gold mine!” And it’s true.

    And while Altium and Afterpay have had a good run, we think these 5 other stocks are screaming buys. And you can buy them now for less than $5 a share!

    *Extreme Opportunities returns as of June 5th 2020

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    Kate O’Brien has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Kogan.com ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. recommends Sezzle Inc. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Kogan.com ltd and Sezzle Inc. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • a2 Milk and 1 other quality ASX 200 share to buy and hold beyond 2026

    Large arrow containing the digits 2026

    Looking to expand your ASX 200 share portfolio? Here, I’ll take you through two of my top picks right now. Both S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares have experienced strong recent share price gains. However I’m still confident in their ability to deliver robust, long-term growth for investors.

    Keep in mind, it’s always advisable to expand your ASX share portfolio over time to ensure you have sufficient market diversification. This will also ensure that you do not have too much portfolio weighting in any one ASX share.

    2 ASX 200 shares to buy and hold

    a2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

    a2 Milk has been one of the top performing ASX growth share of recent years. From the beginning of 2017, the a2 Milk share price has risen from $2.05 to now be trading at $19.76. That’s a whopping increase of over 860%!

    Strong share price growth has continued into 2020, despite the challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic. a2 Milk recently revealed that it has been experiencing continued strong growth across all regions. Demand for a2 Milk’s infant nutrition products sold in China and Australia has been particularly strong.

    a2 Milk continues on its expansion plans in the massive United States and China markets. I believe that a2 Milk is reasonably well placed to make significant further inroads into these markets over the next five years. This is likely to flow though to above average shareholder returns during this time period in my view. 

    Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP)

    The Domino’s share price has experienced a strong rally since March, rising from $44.75 on 19 March to now be trading at $75.73.

    Domino’s appears to have been less impacted by the pandemic than many of its competitors. The company doesn’t typically offer its customers a sit-down service. Another competitive advantage the pizza chain has is that its in-store pick-ups tend to be very quick. They are optimised with an online ordering app which offers patrons accurate pick-up times. Domino’s also has an extensive home delivery service.

    Over the medium term, Domino’s is forecasting new store openings to grow in the range of between 7% to 9% per year. Same store sales growth is forecast to between 3% to 6% per year.

    I’m confident that the Domino’s share price is well placed for strong growth over the next five years, driven by its expanding international operations.

    Foolish takeaway

    a2 Milk and Domino’s are both quality ASX 200 shares that I believe are well placed for strong growth over the medium term.

    Despite strong recent share price growth, I am confident that both companies are well placed to outperform the market over the next five years.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

    *Returns as of June 30th

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    Motley Fool contributor Phil Harpur owns shares of A2 Milk. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of A2 Milk. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • UBS picks the best ASX gold miners to buy today

    Buy stocks

    Investors may be struggling to find value buys among ASX gold mining stocks even as the price of the precious metal surged to a record high.

    The spot gold price strengthened by 1.6% to US$1,973 an ounce this morning as gold stocks outperform the S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO).

    There’s good news for ASX investors who worry that they might have missed the opportunity to buy gold mining shares – UBS thinks it isn’t too late.

    Gold price upgrade

    The broker upgraded its forecast for the safe haven commodity. It is now expecting gold to average US$1,850 an ounce this financial year, or US$200 ahead of its previous prediction.

    UBS’ expectations for FY22 is for the yellow metal to fetch US$1,750 an ounce compared to its last forecast of US$1,650 an ounce.

    “The upgrade to our gold price forecasts drives a substantial ~30-60% uplift in our 2021e NPAT forecasts,” said UBS.

    “All our coverage is investing in growth initiatives, but the strong gold price means they have positive FCF [free cash flow] yields.”

    Upside might even be higher

    But even then, the broker’s estimates may still prove to be too conservative. I believe the gold price could be averaging around US$2,000 an ounce over the next year for a few reasons outlined here. The gold bull run may be closer to the beginning than the end.

    If you are wondering which stocks are best leveraged to the big rise in the shiny metal, UBS has picked the best placed ASX miners to outperform.

    Best ASX gold stocks to buy

    The Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) share price is its top “buy” idea for the sector.

    “We recently changed our thesis on Newcrest based on our in-depth work on Red Chris and Havieron,” explained the broker.

    “The inclusion of these projects challenges market perceptions that production is peaking in 2020-21. We recently upgraded NCM to Buy, the first time since Aug 2012.”

    The next 3 top buy ideas

    The next three best ideas are the Regis Resources Limited (ASX: RRL) share price, OceanaGold Corp (ASX: OGC) share price and Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX: SAR) share price, in that order.

    “Regis and Oceana are trading at a significant discount to peers on earnings multiples, and offer an alternative to some of the larger names for gold exposure,” said UBS.

    “We believe Saracen offers a superior growth profile, with a 5-year production CAGR of ~5% ahead of peers (0-5%) and trading on a similar EBITDA multiple of 9x to large peers on 9-10x.”

    UBS upgraded Newcrest’s price target by 6% to $40.60, Regis by 8% to $6.50, OceanaGold by 9% to $4.70 and Saracen by 10% to $6.90 a share.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

    *Returns as of June 30th

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    Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of Newcrest Mining Limited and Regis Resources Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • ASX 200 jumps 0.75%: Westpac tumbles on AUSTRAC update, Credit Corp surges

    At lunch on Tuesday the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to record a strong gain. The benchmark index is currently up 0.75% to 6,088.8 points.

    Here’s what has been happening on the market today:

    Westpac provides money laundering update.

    The Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) share price is dropping lower today after the release of an update on its dealings with AUSTRAC. The banking giant revealed that it has increased the number of Threshold Transaction Reports (TTRs) that it has provided AUSTRAC with information on. This includes approximately 175,000 transactions that were not reported to AUSTRAC and approximately 365,000 TTRs that were reported to AUSTRAC but may have contained incomplete or inaccurate information. TTRs are bank transfers of more than $10,000 into and out of the country.

    Gold miners charge higher again.

    It has been another positive day of trade for gold miners such as Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Regis Resources Limited (ASX: RRL). They are pushing higher on Tuesday after the gold price continued its ascent. Also supporting the Regis Resources share price was the release of its fourth quarter update. Regis achieved quarterly production of 87,260 ounces, lifting its full year gold production to 352,042 ounces. This helped drive record cash flow from operations of $109 million for the final quarter.

    Credit Corp impresses.

    The Credit Corp Group Limited (ASX: CCP) share price is rocketing higher following the release of its full year results. Excluding one-off adjustments, the debt collector reported a 13% year on year increase in net profit after tax to $79.6 million. This compares to its guidance of $75 million to $80 million. In FY 2021 the company expects to report a net profit after tax of $60 million to $75 million.

    Best and worst ASX 200 shares.

    The best performer on the ASX 200 has been the Credit Corp share price with a sizeable 12% gain following its full year results release. The worst performer has been the Waypoint REIT Ltd (ASX: WPR) share price with a 4% decline. This morning Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (ASX: CLW) revealed that it had offloaded its 5% stake in the service station owner for $2.61 per security. This equates to a total of $101.6 million.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

    *Returns as of June 30th

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro owns shares of Westpac Banking. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • TSMC Among World’s Top 10 Biggest Stocks After $72 Billion Surge

    TSMC Among World’s Top 10 Biggest Stocks After $72 Billion Surge(Bloomberg) — Taiwan’s biggest stock is so hot it added $72 billion in just two days — equal to swallowing Goldman Sachs Group Inc. whole.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. rose as much as 9.9% in Taipei on Tuesday, extending a stunning rally that’s made it the world’s 10th largest company. The chipmaker is worth more than $410 billion, leapfrogging past U.S. giants Johnson & Johnson and Visa Inc. Daily stock moves capped at 10% in Taiwan’s equity market.It’s difficult to overstate the influence that TSMC wields on Taiwan’s financial markets. Making up almost a third of the local benchmark, it has single-handedly pushed the Taiex past a record that had stood for three decades. Its rally is attracting foreign flows into Taiwanese equities, increasing demand for the local currency. The Taiwan dollar rose 1% Tuesday to the strongest since April 2018.The latest boost to TSMC’s shares came after Intel Corp. warned last week that its 7-nanometer chips are behind schedule and it may outsource their production. The U.S. chipmaker is expected to funnel new business to TSMC, given its global lead in silicon fabrication and track record of making semiconductors for the world’s largest tech corporations.A report on Monday suggested that Intel had placed orders with TSMC for 180,000 units of 6nm chips for 2021. Meanwhile, brokerages including Nomura Holdings Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG upgraded TSMC to the equivalent of buy.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • Why Credit Corp, Nufarm, Regis, & Temple & Webster shares are jumping higher

    shares high

    The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has followed the lead of U.S. markets and is on course to record a strong gain. In late morning trade the benchmark index is up 0.85% to 6,094.8 points.

    Four shares that are climbing more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are jumping higher:

    The Credit Corp Group Limited (ASX: CCP) share price has jumped 11.5% higher to $18.83. This follows the release of its full year results this morning. The debt collector delivered a net profit after tax of $15.5 million. This was a sharp year on year decline and driven by impairments and additional provisioning due to the pandemic. However, excluding one-off adjustments, net profit after tax would have been up 13% to $79.6 million.

    The Nufarm Limited (ASX: NUF) share price has surged 7% higher to $4.26. The catalyst for this appears to be a broker note out of UBS this morning. According to the note, the broker has upgraded the agricultural chemicals company’s shares to a buy rating with a $5.19 price target. It feels that its European business could be on the verge of rebounding after some tough times.

    The Regis Resources Limited (ASX: RRL) share price is up over 3% to $6.14 following the release of its fourth quarter update. Regis revealed quarterly production of 87,260 ounces, bringing its full year gold production to 352,042 ounces. This helped drive record cash flow from operations of $109 million for the June quarter.

    The Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW) share price is up 3.5% to $8.06. Investors have been buying the online homewares company’s shares after the release of its full year results. For the 12 months ended 30 June 2020, Temple & Webster reported revenue of $176.3 million and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) of $8.5 million. This represents a 74% and 467% increase, respectively, on the prior corresponding period.

    5 stocks under $5

    We hear it over and over from investors, “I wish I had bought Altium or Afterpay when they were first recommended by The Motley Fool. I’d be sitting on a gold mine!” And it’s true.

    And while Altium and Afterpay have had a good run, we think these 5 other stocks are screaming buys. And you can buy them now for less than $5 a share!

    *Extreme Opportunities returns as of June 5th 2020

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    James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Temple & Webster Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Temple & Webster Group Ltd. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why Bubs, PointsBet, Perpetual, & Waypoint shares are dropping lower

    red arrow pointing down, falling share price

    In late morning trade the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to record a solid gain. At the time of writing the benchmark index is up an impressive 1.05% to 6,107.3 points.

    Four shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here’s why they are dropping lower:

    The Bubs Australia Ltd (ASX: BUB) share price is down 2.5% to 95 cents. The catalyst for this appears to be a broker note out of Citi this morning. According to the note, the broker has downgraded Bubs shares down to a neutral rating and cut the price target on them to $1.00. The broker has concerns that the slowdown in sales experienced in the fourth quarter could carry over into the first quarter and delay profitability.

    The Perpetual Limited (ASX: PPT) share price is down 1% to $33.26. This follows the completion of its placement this morning. The fund manager has raised $225 million from institutional investors at a price of $30.30 per new share. The proceeds will be used to partly fund the acquisition of a 75% interest in Barrow Hanley for US$319 million (A$465 million). Barrow Hanley is a Texas-based investment manager with funds under management of approximately US$44.1 billion.

    The PointsBet Holdings Ltd (ASX: PBH) share price is down over 3% to $6.07. This follows the release of the sports betting company’s fourth quarter update. Although PointsBet delivered a 57.9% increase in quarterly turnover to $349.4 million, investors appear disappointed with a decline in US turnover. It fell 12.9% compared to the prior corresponding period to $46.5 million.

    The Waypoint REIT Ltd (ASX: WPR) share price is down 4.5% to $2.61. This morning the service station owner, previously known as Viva Energy, revealed that Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (ASX: CLW) has sold its entire 5% stake in the company. Charter Hall sold its stake for $2.61 per security, which equates to a total of $101.6 million.

    5 stocks under $5

    We hear it over and over from investors, “I wish I had bought Altium or Afterpay when they were first recommended by The Motley Fool. I’d be sitting on a gold mine!” And it’s true.

    And while Altium and Afterpay have had a good run, we think these 5 other stocks are screaming buys. And you can buy them now for less than $5 a share!

    *Extreme Opportunities returns as of June 5th 2020

    More reading

    James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Pointsbet Holdings Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended BUBS AUST FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Pointsbet Holdings Ltd. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Are ASX iron ore shares doomed?

    meteor speeding through space

    Over the weekend, I read a particularly interesting piece from the pro-China news site, The South China Morning Post. In the article, they spoke about displacing Australian iron ore because of the opening of four new deep water ports in Africa and Brazil. Brazillian mining giant, Vale, already uses the very large freighters, called Chinamax ships, which carry up to 400,000 tonnes per journey. Australian operators currently use what is known as Capemax ships. These carry 250,000 – 300,000 tonnes in one journey.

    The point of the article is that due to the short distance to China, shipments from Australia are more competitive. Moreover, if Brazil and Africa could beat the tyranny of distance, then it would make their iron ore more attractive. 

    So, is this true? Is it a direct threat? And what should our investing response be?

    Is Pilbara iron ore under threat

    In short, I believe yes. Nevertheless, the Pilbara iron ore miners will meet the challenge just as they have met challenges before. The Pilbara iron ore miners are a resilient bunch. They have dealt with fierce competitors, state level negotiations, and the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune in the global economy. This has included government embargoes, the 1980’s collapse of the steel markets, and the rise of Africa as a viable source of metals.

    Australia already has deep water ports at Cape Lambert, Point Samson and Cossack.  If they need to create the infrastructure quickly, it could be done. Furthermore, the need for deep water ports is understood as an infrastructure priority in Australia. Nonetheless, this is far from the only cost advantage held by the Pilbara miners.

    First, all of them have harnessed technology to create Perth-based operations centres for their many sites, instead of duplicate teams on each site. In addition, the iron ore miners led the charge to autonomous vehicles, automated processing, and they are moving quickly to artificial intelligence in plant maintenance. 

    Regardless of any global tensions, Australian miners are empirically the only organisations capable of delivering the tonnages, grades and continuity of supply that China currently requires. That’s just the brutal truth of the matter. Moreover, in their favour, there are many other global customers for iron ore.

    There are two factors influencing global steel demand right now. First, are the massive stimulus packages across the globe. Every developed nation with a large economy is spending billions to recover from the economic damage of the coronavirus pandemic. Second, as uncomfortable as it may seem, many nations are rearming and fortifying their defence capabilities. All of which needs steel.

    What does this mean for ASX iron ore investors?

    In my view, if you hold shares in Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) or BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), I would not be selling them because of any threat to demand from global tensions. Moreover, BHP and Rio are the number one and two mining companies in the world respectively. Outside of iron ore, they are also major players in forward facing metals like copper and nickel. In addition, both are active in aluminium and BHP is still a major player in the coal industry.

    I think both of these companies are likely to have a hard time during earnings season because of the unique events of FY20. However, over the medium term, I believe they are well and truly cushioned from a fall in iron ore prices or demand.

    Personally, I am invested in Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG). This is one of my ‘buy and hold for a very long time’ shares. I get good capital growth and I collect a high dividend yield because of my low purchase price. Fortescue is a pure play iron ore company, and I do not think it is likely to be threatened over the medium term. It has low levels of debt, an ambitious expansion pipeline, and is an innovator. For example, the company has the ‘Fortescue blend’, a product it created to be able to sell at higher unit prices. 

    For new Fortescue investors, I believe that now is still a good time to buy these shares. The company is trading at a price to earnings ratio of 7.38 and has a trailing 12 month dividend yield of 5.95%. For me personally, I already have a sizeable percentage of my portfolio in Fortescue so will only buy again if the price dips for some reason. 

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    Motley Fool contributor Daryl Mather owns shares of Fortescue Metals Group Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

    The post Are ASX iron ore shares doomed? appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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