On Wednesday the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) ran out of steam and dropped notably lower. The benchmark index fell 1.3% to 6,075.1 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 set to rise.

It looks set to be a better day of trade for the ASX 200 on Thursday. According to the latest SPI futures, the benchmark index is expected to open the day 8 points or 0.13% higher. This follows a decent night of trade on Wall Street which saw the Dow Jones rise 0.6%, the S&P 500 climb 0.6%, and the Nasdaq push 0.25% higher.

Newcrest fourth quarter update.

The Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) share price will be on watch today when it releases its fourth quarter and full year production update. According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, it is expecting quarterly gold production of 527,000 ounces. This compares to the consensus estimate of 542,000 ounces. This is expected to be achieved at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of US$860 an ounce. The consensus is expecting an AISC of US$887 an ounce.

Oil prices edge lower.

Energy producers such as Oil Search Limited (ASX: OSH) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) will be on watch today after oil prices edged lower. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.2% to US$41.83 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.15% to US$44.26 a barrel. A surprise build in U.S. inventories weighed on prices.

Gold price higher

It could be another positive day of trade for gold miners including Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST). Overnight the price of the precious metal surged to a seven-year high. According to CNBC, the spot gold price is up 1.5% to US$1,871.40 an ounce amid rising US-China tensions.

Budget day.

All eyes will be on Treasurer Josh Frydenberg today when he updates the nation on the state of the Australian economy. According to the ABC, Mr Frydenberg is expected to reveal the largest recorded deficit by an Australian government since World War II. Economists are tipping this deficit to be in the region of $200 billion in 2020-21.

More reading

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• Top brokers list the latest ASX small cap stocks to buy today
• The ASX sector that’s heading for a V-shape recovery
• QBE share price rises despite expected half year loss
• Are ASX tech shares in a bubble?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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