(Bloomberg Opinion) — E-commerce stocks were some of the biggest winners in the second quarter, with such companies as Shopify, Wayfair and Etsy reporting year-over-year revenue growth of about 100%, thanks to consumers ordering things online in the pandemic. A decade of e-commerce adoption took place in a matter of months.But this dramatic shift in consumer buying behavior wasn’t matched by the physical supply chain on which e-commerce relies. Price increases announced by United Parcel Service Inc. and FedEx Corp. recently should raise some doubts about the ability of e-commerce darlings to keep growing enough to please investors.What's going on here, at least in the short term, is a classic case of supply bottlenecks emerging in response to a rapid increase in demand. As consumers began spending again in April after the initial shock of March’s shelter-in-place orders, they shifted some purchases online — either because it was perceived to be safer than shopping in stores, or because some stores weren't even open. While this was bad news for brick-and-mortar merchants, some e-commerce companies were big winners.Shopify Inc., a service provider for online businesses, reported revenue growth jumped 97% from a year earlier in the second quarter. Wayfair Inc., which sells furniture and home goods online, saw its revenues grow 84%. Etsy Inc., powered in part by sales of homemade masks, grew revenues 137%. All three companies enjoyed expanded profit margins, with revenues growing at a faster rate than costs.But three months ago, neither these companies nor the package-delivery services on which they rely had planned for this kind of growth. As Amazon.com Inc.’s Jeff Bezos has said, the current quarter's financial results are largely due to decisions, plans and investments made a few years ago. And as Amazon has gotten bigger, it has boosted investments both in the fulfillment centers that warehouse its goods and in its own network of delivery services to ensure it's not overly reliant on third-party companies such as UPS and FedEx.The question is how other e-commerce platforms and merchants will perform during this year's holiday season, when they're likely to get crushed by unplanned record demand, both from the secular growth in e-commerce and the temporary impact of the pandemic.UPS and FedEx — large, established transportation companies with decades of experience — have thought about it ahead of time and raised their prices accordingly, to ensure they can provide a high level of service to merchants willing and able to pay, and perhaps to decrease demand from more cost-constrained sellers. Large companies that sell either offline or online — not just Amazon, but also Walmart, Home Depot and the like — are more likely to be in a position to pay or find their own delivery solutions than newer companies or smaller sellers, which rely on the bigger online platforms for their business.Sourcing inventory to meet demand may also constrain growth this holiday season. In one example, online used-car seller Carvana Co. last week noted how inventory shortages due to shuttered auto factories have hurt sales. The company is trying to buy cars from customers to replenish its stock. Widespread product shortages, with production struggling to keep pace, may be inevitable for the balance of the year for many e-commerce companies, preventing consumers from getting everything they want online, and perhaps leading to some unwelcome fourth-quarter financial results.To the extent these challenges are contained to e-commerce, online sellers may be tempted to raise prices to pay for added delivery costs or more expensive inventory. But that also risks chasing away price-sensitive consumers who still have the ability to go to stores if products there are cheaper.Over time, as Amazon has shown, these problems are fixable. To the extent 2020 levels of e-commerce demand are sustainable, UPS and FedEx will make investments to meet it, and Amazon and other e-commerce companies can do the same. Inventories will get rebuilt if the demand is there. Pricing will adjust to make all this happen. But with the holiday season only a few months away, it's largely too late to make big investments to meet this year's demand. After a banner second quarter, investors may be extrapolating surging revenues and profit margins out to the end of this year and beyond. But they should prepare for the short-term unwelcome scenario of surging cost pressures, stressed supply chains, widespread product outages and angry customers.This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Conor Sen is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He has been a contributor to the Atlantic and Business Insider.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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A shipping joint venture between Venezuela and China has fallen apart in the wake of U.S. sanctions, resulting in the South American nation losing three supertankers at a time when foreign shippers are reluctant to carry its oil, court documents show. PetroChina Co Ltd, which had been state-run Petroleos de Venezuela’s partner in the Singapore-based joint venture CV Shipping Pte Ltd, took control of the three tankers between January and February, according the documents from a Singapore court reviewed by Reuters. The transfer of the Junin, Boyaca and Carabobo very large crude carriers (VLCC) has not been previously reported.
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Yahoo Finance’s Ines Ferre joins The First Trade with Alexis Christoforous and Brian Sozzi to discuss Nio’s latest earnings report and the stock’s reaction.The broad restructuring at WarnerMedia is a "natural progression" for the media conglomerate to hone its focus on HBO Max, according to John Stephens, AT&T's chief financial officer. WarnerMedia laid off hundreds of employees Monday across Warner Bros., HBO and DC Entertainment. That came after a major management shakeup under new CEO Jason Kilar, under […]
Yahoo Finance’s Emily McCormick joins The First Trade with Alexis Christoforous and Brian Sozzi to discuss July’s Producer Price Index, Nio’s second-quarter earnings report and IHG’s first-half earnings report.How far off is Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take…
Northland Securities cut Stamps.com's stock rating to Hold from Buy citing its high valuation. The downgrade comes shortly after the company's 2Q earnings released on Aug. 6 surpassed Street estimates. Stamps.com shares soared almost 18% on Friday, taking their year-to-date rally to 270%.Northland analyst Tyler Wood maintained Stamps.com's (STMP) price target of $280 (9.5% downside potential). “Stamps.com's Q2 results and full year guidance "blew away" estimates on surging customer adds and average revenue per user,” Wood said.Stamps.com's 2Q earnings jumped 148% to $3.11 per share year-over-year and came ahead of analysts’ expectations of $1.26. Its revenues of $206.7 million exceeded Street estimates of $153.3 million. The company forecasts 2020 revenues to grow in the range of $650 million to $725 million, up from the previous guidance of $570 million to $600 million. Adjusted EPS for 2020 is estimated at $6.25 to $9.25, compared with previous guidance of $4 to $5.Meanwhile, Craig-Hallum analyst George Sutton raised Stamps.com's price target to $340 (9.9% upside potential) from $300, and kept a Buy rating. Sutton was impressed with Stamps.com's 2Q numbers but felt that the guidance was conservative. The analyst believes that “the pandemic has been a material positive for those serving the eCommerce market and also those serving as on-line equivalents of off-line solutions.”Currently, the Street has a cautiously optimistic outlook on the stock. The Moderate Buy analyst consensus is based on 1 Buy and 1 Hold. The average price target of $310 implies that the stock is more than fully valued. (See STMP stock analysis on TipRanks).Related News: Wedbush Lifts Apple’s PT To ‘Street High’ ON Semiconductor Quarterly Profit Misses Estimates; Top Analyst Sticks To Buy Barclays Lifts Uber’s PT On Recovery Bet More recent articles from Smarter Analyst: * MGM Spikes 14% As IAC Makes $1B Investment Amid Online Gambling Bet * Marriot Posts Wider-Than-Expected 2Q Loss, Sees 'Gradual Recovery' * Stephens Puts Trade Desk On Hold After 2Q Revenue * FedEx Gains 5% As Bernstein Raises Stock To Buy