• Is Altium still a leading ASX 200 tech share to buy?

    illuminated circuit board

    When it comes to growth, the Altium Limited (ASX: ALU) share price has fallen behind many of its ASX 200 tech share cohorts. These include the likes of Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT), Xero Limited (ASX: XRO) and Appen Ltd (ASX: APX) which have all seen considerable growth year to date. Meanwhile, the Altium share price has languished in 2020. Has Altium fallen from grace or is it still a leading ASX 200 tech share to buy? 

    Revenue growth but below consensus 

    On 22 June, Altium advised that its run-rate has fallen behind current analyst consensus despite reasonable subscriber and revenue growth. It cites the new lockdowns in China and an increase in COVID-19 cases in parts of the United States as having some impact on the company’s final sprint to the close of fiscal 2020. Altium has been aggressively closing sales at a significant discount. The Altium website showed that its printed circuit board design platform was discounted from AUD$10,445 to $7,185 or 12 monthly instalments of $599. 

    On 14 July, Altium announced that it had achieved 10% revenue growth and exceeded its 50,000 subscriber target. The significant product discounting is taking a toll on its revenue despite record subscribers, the roll-out of its new cloud platform (Altium 365) and launch of its digital sales stream. 

    COVID-19 challenges persist 

    Altium pointed to Beijing’s recent lockdown and soaring COVID-19 cases in the US as challenges to its growth story. These challenges continue to persist with the US recording its largest increase in new cases last weekend. The company’s main revenue generating service is from its Boards and Systems segment which sells its flagship Altium Designer tool. From a revenue perspective, its 1H20 major revenue generating regions for Boards and Systems were America with 40%, EMEA (Europe, the Middle East and Africa) with 34% and China with 15%. All three regions continue to face challenges with containing COVID-19 which will likely be a drag on revenues beyond the short term. 

    Foolish takeaway 

    I believe Altium’s decision to aggressively discount its product offering and close deals is not a solution to the challenges it faces as a result of COVID-19. The selling more for less approach is not sustainable, especially if the economic impact of COVID-19 persists for the medium term. With the persistent challenges that Altium faces, I believe investors may be better off looking at other ASX 200 tech shares such as Xero and Appen. 

    3 “Double Down” Stocks To Ride The Bull Market

    Motley Fool resident tech stock expert Dr. Anirban Mahanti has stumbled upon three under-the-radar stock picks he believes could be some of the greatest discoveries of his investing career.

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    Lina Lim has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Altium and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO and Appen Ltd. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Is the BHP share price about to surge?

    Price up or down

    The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is down 4.8%, year to date, but I think it’s well-placed to climb higher in 2020.

    Why the BHP share price could be set to surge

    I think there are a couple of things to consider for BHP. One is the strong demand drivers that I’m seeing in the economy right now.

    The coronavirus pandemic has stunted global economic growth and spooked investors. However, governments will be looking to stimulate their economies with whatever they can, and one obvious candidate is infrastructure. That’s good news for BHP as a major global supplier of iron ore.

    There’s also the relative value argument. The BHP share price has fallen 4.8% but is still outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO). However, fellow iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) has seen its shares rocket 43.9% higher this year.

    It’s true that Fortescue trades at a lower price to earnings (P/E) ratio than BHP. However, if we continue to see strong demand, I think the BHP share price could benefit from rising iron ore prices and the momentum factor.

    Why is infrastructure good for BHP?

    Infrastructure is a good fiscal stimulator given the size, value and timeline of these projects. Major roadworks, buildings, railworks projects and the like can go for years. That means plenty of money to flow through to contractors and employees, as well as downstream suppliers. 

    The resource-intensive nature also makes any infrastructure boom good news for the BHP share price. More infrastructure means more demand for steel, driving up iron ore demand and therefore prices.

    Does that mean BHP is in the buy zone?

    I think a strong blue-chip like BHP is often quite a good option for portfolios, however, the Resources sector is notoriously volatile and ultimately dependent on global commodity prices.

    The BHP share price is still down in 2020, while Fortescue shares are rocketing higher and the ASX 200 looks to be moving sideways right now.

    I think as governments start to plot a path towards economic recovery, we could see the BHP share price start to climb. That’s particularly the case if we see a decent earnings result from the Aussie miner on 18 August.

    5 stocks under $5

    We hear it over and over from investors, “I wish I had bought Altium or Afterpay when they were first recommended by The Motley Fool. I’d be sitting on a gold mine!” And it’s true.

    And while Altium and Afterpay have had a good run, we think these 5 other stocks are screaming buys. And you can buy them now for less than $5 a share!

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    Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Coupa Software Shows Strength

    Coupa Software Shows StrengthCoupa Software (COUP, daily) found short-term support at its 21-day line.

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  • Biggest dividend cuts in 10 years to hit ASX investors next month

    man with hands on head looking at chart with red downward arrow, stock market crash

    Income investors should brace themselves for the worst dividend hit since the GFC when ASX companies present their profit results next month.

    You can blame this on the COVID-19 meltdown with Bloomberg estimating that stocks on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO) could crash by up to 40% in 2020 and a further 11% in 2021.

    The August reporting season is the first time ASX stocks will have to put their cards on the table since the coronavirus pandemic triggered a shutdown of the global economy.

    ASX banks dividend disaster

    We’ve already gotten a small taste of what’s to come with three of the big banks slashing or suspending dividends two months ago.

    This explains a big part of why the Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) share price and Australia and New Zealand Banking GrpLtd (ASX: ANZ) share price are underperforming. They both held back from paying any dividend, while the National Australia Bank Ltd. (ASX: NAB) share price is under pressure from a cap raise and a 60% plus cut to its interim dividend.

    Their financial year end is different from most other companies.

    Risk of CBA suspending dividend is growing

    I have written about how Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) may have dodged a bullet as it releases its full year results next month. My initial thoughts were that the worst of the COVID-19 impact would be behind us and that management didn’t have to be as conservative on dividends as its peers.

    But I wasn’t counting on a dreaded resurgence in coronavirus infections. Large parts of Victoria have gone back into a stage three lockdown and conditions seem to be worsening.

    There’s talk that the state will have to go into a stricter stage four lockdown, while New South Wales may be next to shutdown vast parts of its economy if the spike in cases can’t be controlled soon.

    Given the heightened level of uncertainty, it’s reasonable to think that CBA might suspend its dividend till later this calendar year. If our biggest home lender does this, it won’t be due to the lack of cash as its balance sheet can fund a decent payout. It will be because of fear.

    Why many ASX stocks will be tempted to cut dividends

    Other ASX stocks will be quick to leverage on this climate of anxiety too. The risk-reward for cutting dividends is too attractive for management teams to ignore.

    In the first instance, boards won’t be flogged for committing the cardinal sin of dividend cuts during a global crisis. It’s almost like a “hall pass”.

    On the flipside, if they don’t cut dividends to shore up their cash position, and they run unexpectedly run thin on capital later, they will be punished severely then.

    Further, extra cash on the balance sheet will give ASX companies greater flexibility to boost their share prices later. This can be trough capital returns, business expansion or acquisitions.

    On that last point, the COVID-19 turmoil is bound to throw up some opportunistic targets as several industries will likely be forced to consolidate.

    Other ASX stocks at risk of dividend disappointment

    Another sector that’s at risk of slicing or suspending their dividends in August is property. Retail and office landlords like Vicinity Centres (ASX: VCX) and Stockland Corporation Ltd (ASX: SGP) are doing it tough.

    Any stock related to travel like Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) and Sydney Airport Holdings Pty Ltd (ASX: SYD) will also be under pressure to keep as much capital on their balance sheets as they can. The recovery in international travel looks to be a long way off.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

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    Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Limited, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank Limited, and Westpac Banking. Connect with me on Twitter @brenlau.

    The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Analyst Predicts Approval for Moderna’s COVID-19 Vaccine

    Analyst Predicts Approval for Moderna’s COVID-19 VaccineShares of the vaccine maker Moderna (MRNA) are up by double digits in after-hours session Tuesday, thanks to a positive clinical update for its experimental coronavirus vaccine mRNA-1273. "Phase 1 data demonstrate that vaccination with mRNA-1273 elicits a robust immune response across all dose levels and clearly support the choice of 100 µg in a prime and boost regimen as the optimal dose for the Phase 3 study,” said Tal Zaks, Chief Medical Officer of Moderna.Following Moderna’s massive gains so far this year, 333% to be exact, is now the right time to recommend investors snap up shares? Jefferies analyst Michael Yee has an almost Schwarzenegger-ish answer to such a question: “We take a stand: If it works, stock will be going up.”To this end, Yee initiated coverage on MRNA with a Buy rating. However, his $90 price target implies a modest 5% upside from current levels. (To watch Yee’s track record, click here)Unsurprisingly, the bulk of Yee’s bullish assessment is reserved for the company's COVID-19 vaccine candidate.Expanding on this blunt assessment, Yee said, “We believe the Street will be surprised to the upside if the COVID-19 vaccine works, gets approved by early 2021, and there are multi-billion dollars of purchase orders from USA and around the world. The Street is divided as to what will happen or if the vaccine will even work and is hugely divided on valuation. We believe the vaccine will get approved and could do $5B+ in orders over the next few years and the stock will head higher.”Yee’s confidence is partly based on talks with KOLs (key opinion leaders) who have prompted a belief there is “a good probability the vaccine will work,” and should at minimum be granted Emergency approval by early next year.Moderna has emerged as one of the frontrunners in the race to bring a viable vaccine to market, but there’s a while to go yet before breaking out the champagne. mRNA-1273 is currently in a phase 2 trial, with data expected in the fall, while a phase 3 study is expected to launch this month. It goes without saying, positive results from the trials could act as additional catalysts for further share appreciation.The Jefferies analyst is not alone in his positive assessment. Based on 14 Buy ratings and 2 Holds, Moderna has a Strong Buy consensus rating. With an average price target of $86.46, the analysts expect a 15% premium to be added to the share price over the next 12 months. (See Moderna stock analysis on TipRanks)To find good ideas for healthcare stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

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  • Buy these ASX shares today and pay no CGT when you sell

    asx 200 shares

    Believe it or not, there are a handful of shares that you can still buy today on the ASX that are exempt from tax when you finally sell them. I’m talking about ASX-listed pooled development fund (PDF) companies, which, despite their attractiveness, still tend to fly under the radar of most investors.

    First, the history lesson: the PDF program was launched by the Paul Keating government in 1992 to help increase the supply of capital to small and medium-sized (SMEs) enterprises, based on certain criteria. A PDF raises capital and makes equity investments in SMEs and under the program, pooled development funds were offered generous tax concessions. While the PDF program has been closed to new registrations since 2007, existing registered funds continue to operate, and as such continue to have PDF status for tax purposes.

    What are the tax breaks?

    Buy one or more of these ASX PDF shares, and you’ll receive a double-whammy in tax benefits.

    Firstly, companies with PDF status are taxed at 15% on their income and capital gains received from their investments. By comparison, the full company tax rate sits at 30% and the lower company tax rate is 27.5%.

    Secondly (and more importantly), as a shareholder in an ASX-listed PDF, you’re exempt from the capital gains tax after selling. Assuming you’re an Australian resident, you’ll also receive franked and unfranked dividends that are also exempt from tax. There’s also the option to use the imputation credits attached to the franked dividends to offset other tax obligations.

    However, the benefit doesn’t come without a potential downside, which is that you’re not entitled to deductions or capital loss on the sale of these shares.

    PDFs trading on the ASX

    If you like the idea of investing in Australian SMEs, while also locking in some future tax breaks, here’s a closer look at the 6 PDF shares trading on the ASX.

    Authorised Investment Fund (ASX: AIY)

    AIY invests in innovative SMEs within high-growth industries that capture the multiples of future consumer spending. For example, it has a 30% stake in Aenea Cosmetics, which offers customers a full range of epigenetic skin care products, and a 30% stake in global media representation company Asian Integrated Media.

    AIY also owns a stake in NSX-listed company, Endless Solar, which has exposure to the renewable energy market.

    While the company is currently suspended from trading pending its responses to an ASX enquiry, at 3 cents per share the last trade is undervalued relative to Morningstar’s fair valuation of 4 cents.

    MEC Resources (ASX: MMR) 

    This exploration company offers investors the opportunity to secure equity in companies exploring for large energy and mineral discoveries like oil, uranium, nickel, iron ore and gold. Its primary focus is on companies with the potential to yield significant returns by advancing their discoveries into production.

    The company has called for a voluntary suspension of trading until 17 July pending a meeting of shareholders to effect an in-specie distribution of the Advent Energy shares that it holds. At 0.4 cents the stock is currently trading a discount to Morningstar’s fair value of 1 cent per share.

    Strategic Elements Ltd (ASX: SOR)

    Strategic Elements is advancing its in-house developed ‘printable nanocube memory ink’, which hopes to revolutionise the ability to print onto multiple surfaces, while remaining flexible and transparent. Its chosen tech field targets the global multi-billion dollar printed electronics market for use in advanced computing applications and improving data storage capabilities.

    The company is also working with the University of New South Wales and has attracted 2 other significant development partners – CSIRO and VTT Finland – both world leaders in their prospective fields. Strategic Elements is also involved in a collaborative working group called PrintoCent, which includes large global companies in printed electronics, such as Nokia, Merck and BASF.

    Its subsidiary Stealth Technologies is developing technologies to help vehicles to drive autonomously, and do physical tasks with robotics.

    BTC Health Ltd (ASX: BTC)

    This Australian specialty biopharmaceutical company provides partnering, product development and commercialisation capabilities to partners across the Asia-Pacific. It’s dedicated to assisting these partners through the final stages of product development, regulatory submissions, reimbursement, distribution and post-marketing compliance and is actively seeking new investment opportunities in the biotechnology life-science sectors.

    Demand for BTC’s specialty health products reduced significantly following the cancellation of category two and three elective surgeries by the Australian Government on 25 March. As a result, the share price was heavily sold-off in February, and at 9.5 cents per share, it remains significantly undervalued relative to Morningstar’s fair value of 13 cents.

    I expect the full resumption of elective surgery to be reflected in the share price – sooner or later.

    Generation Development Group Ltd (ASX: GDG)

    Formerly known as Austock Group, Generation Development Group is a specialist provider of investment bond product solutions. The group established Australia’s first flexible investment bond product over 15 years ago.  

    Generation Development Group also operates Austock Financial Services, which provides administrative services, including unit pricing, fund valuation, investment and fund accounting, fund administration and business registry services.

    The stock currently trades for 76 cents, slightly higher than Morningstar’s fair valuation of 66 cents.

    Acrux Limited (ASX: ACR)

    Acrux listed in 2004 as a biotech share dedicated to developing and commercialising topical pharmaceuticals. Its early claim to fame was as the provider of roll-on testosterone, but its fortunes deteriorated when the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) linked testosterone drugs to heart failure and strokes.

    Since then, Acrux has focused on developing a pipeline of 10 topical generic drugs, and currently has 3 pharmaceutical products approved and marketed. The Acrux share price surged by as much as 62.96% in late May 2020, following revelations it has entered into an exclusive sales, marketing and distribution agreement with US-based private company TruPharma.

    What I think is appealing is TruPharma’s proven track-record of building niche product portfolios and getting difficult products FDA-approved and into the market. Subject to approval by the FDA, TruPharma will be responsible for the commercialisation of 6 existing products from the Acrux pipeline.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

    When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for more than eight years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

    Scott just revealed what he believes are the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they are great buys right now.

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    Motley Fool contributor Mark Story has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Servicenow Cutdown

    Servicenow CutdownServiceNow (NOW, daily) bounced off its 50-day moving average.

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  • ASX tech star ELMO Software delivers strong growth in FY 2020 despite the pandemic

    Woman standing in front of computerised images, ASX tech shares

    The ELMO Software Ltd (ASX: ELO) share price will be one to watch on Wednesday.

    This follows the release of the growing software company’s fourth quarter and full year update this morning.

    How did ELMO perform in FY 2020?

    During the fourth quarter, the cloud-based HR and payroll software provider continued its growth trajectory despite the challenges associated with COVID-19.

    ELMO reported cash collections of $16.4 million during the three months, which represented a 26.2% increase on the previous quarter and 8.4% on the prior corresponding period.

    The company’s growth during the quarter was supported by the launch of ELMO Connect. This is a new communications module allowing businesses to instant message and initiate Zoom Conference calls from within its cloud-based platform.

    This ultimately led to the company reporting record cash receipts of $57.5 million during the financial year, up 27.4% on FY 2019’s cash receipts.

    At the end the financial year ELMO had a cash balance of $139.9 million with no debt. This cash balance was boosted by its successful $70 million placement institutional placement and $2.8 million share purchase plan.

    Pleasingly, this strong balance sheet means ELMO remains well capitalised to continue investing in organic growth and executing strategic acquisitions.

    In respect to the latter, ELMO’s CEO, Danny Lessem, revealed that the company has “an active acquisition pipeline.”

    FY 2021 outlook.

    Mr Lessem appears optimistic on the company’s prospects in FY 2021.

    The chief executive commented: “ELMO’s focus remains on delivering organic growth supplemented with strategic acquisitions, continuing our growth trajectory into FY21 and beyond. We are well placed to benefit from the acceleration in the adoption of cloud-based business tools, including HR technology.”

    Further details in respect to its earnings and its expectations for FY 2021 will be released with its full year results on 6 August.

    5 stocks under $5

    We hear it over and over from investors, “I wish I had bought Altium or Afterpay when they were first recommended by The Motley Fool. I’d be sitting on a gold mine!” And it’s true.

    And while Altium and Afterpay have had a good run, we think these 5 other stocks are screaming buys. And you can buy them now for less than $5 a share!

    *Extreme Opportunities returns as of June 5th 2020

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    James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Elmo Software. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Elmo Software. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • This could be a problem for the Afterpay share price

    The Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) share price has been one of the great gravity defying shares of FY20. Although not the first buy now, pay later (BNPL) company in the world, Afterpay has definitely done it very well. It is head and shoulders above any Australian rivals, and is already starting to see early success in foreign markets, particularly the US.

    However, The Australian reported yesterday on an unlisted start up called Limepay, which is already seeking to disrupt the BNPL business model. Limepay allows merchants to integrate an online payments platform with their own branding, and to add their own BNPL functionality if they wish.

    So, what does this mean for the future of the Afterpay share price?

    The battle of the business models

    The secret to the Afterpay share price miracle has been a business model where supposedly everybody wins. Consumers with limited discretionary funds can purchase items using no interest instalments, merchants see an increase in sales and pay a small 3–6% fee. Seems like a good thing all round, doesn’t it?

    Limepay has a counter argument, and it may be right. First, vendors get it. The BNPL wave of short term credit has taught everyone that customers want instalment plans. So why should they allow another company to get in between them and their customers? Couldn’t they just do this themselves? That would enable them to maintain a long-term relationship with their customers.

    Both the Afterpay website and the Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P) website have an entire catalogue of merchants you can buy from. So they have taken customers as part of a sale in one store, and targeted them with competitors’ products. The longer I think about this, the more I think this could be a threat to the BNPL business model.

    The Limepay model is to enable companies to do their own instalment plans, and works with businesses such as the Accor group, which uses the platform for its 40,000 loyalty members.

    The Afterpay share price

    The Afterpay share price rose by 178.3% over the past year. This is despite bushfires, a pandemic and a lockdown. At this price, the company has a market valuation greater than Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Crown Resorts Ltd (ASX: CWN) combined. Nevertheless, there is some justification for this.

    Afterpay is the clear leader in Australia. In overseas expansion, its UK subsidiary, Clearpay, already has over 1 million active shoppers. Similarly, Afterpay announced it has 5 million active shoppers in the US, and a total consumer count of approximately 9 million. Across the entire business the company has reported 9.9 million active shoppers for FY20. 

    Lastly, there was the recent stake purchased by Tencent Holdings Ltd, which holds at least 5%. Tencent is one of the world’s largest companies and operates China’s leading digital payments service, Weixin Pay. Although no specific plans have been disclosed to move into Asian markets, there is a lot of speculation.

    So, what has all this growth delivered? In the company’s unaudited release it reported total sales of $11.1 billion in FY20. Sales represent the transactions that have passed through the Afterpay system through whatever means. The company is forecasting a net transaction margin of approximately 2%.

    In contrast, Tyro Payments Ltd (ASX: TYR) recently announced the company’s total transactions for FY20, in just Australia, stood at $2o.131 billion. However, the transaction margin in this case is approximately 1%. Tyro is a payments processing company, not a BNPL company. The example is to illustrate the scale of the raw figures.

    Foolish takeaway

    In summary, I think the Limepay business model is likely to appeal to predominantly large companies that are well branded. For many small-to-medium companies the Afterpay association helps generate sales. However, this is only one of the areas where the Afterpay share price is likely to hit headwinds.

    First, a raft of other competitors have already sprung up, such as the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)-backed BNPL product, Klarna. The appearance of the Limepay model, as well as the number of BNPL competitors, highlight the low barriers to entry in the space. Second, Afterpay already seems to have roused the ire of regulators in Australia. 

    While Afterpay is growing very fast, I see its current share price as totally overvalued. It may reach $100 as forecast by analysts at Morgan Stanley, but I do not believe it is sustainable. For instance, in raw growth alone, it had to expand across 3 continents to achieve a level of transactions other companies have been able to achieve within Australia.

    3 “Double Down” Stocks To Ride The Bull Market

    Motley Fool resident tech stock expert Dr. Anirban Mahanti has stumbled upon three under-the-radar stock picks he believes could be some of the greatest discoveries of his investing career.

    He’s so confident in their future prospects that he has issued “double down” buy alerts on each of these three stocks to members of his Motley Fool Extreme Opportunities stock picking service.

    *Extreme Opportunities returns as of June 5th 2020

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    Daryl Mather has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Tyro Payments. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why the Mirvac share price is a good relative buy

    view looking up to tall office building

    The Mirvac Group (ASX: MGR) share price could be trading cheaply right now, in my opinion.

    Shares in the Aussie real estate investment trust (REIT) are down 32.3% in 2020, compared to an 11.2% loss for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

    So, let’s take a closer look at what’s driving the real estate share lower and why it could potentially be in the buy zone this year.

    Why the Mirvac share price is a potential buy

    Almost all the Aussie REITs have been hammered lower this year, but Mirvac is looking like a decent relative value buy. 

    With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.4, the Mirvac share price is looking cheap compared to its sector peers. Rivals Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) and Stockland Corporation Ltd (ASX: SGP) trade at P/E ratios of 9.7 and 15.0, respectively.

    There’s also the question of its market capitalisation versus its book value. Mirvac’s website claims the group manages $18 billion of real estate assets. However, the company’s market capitalisation is just $8.5 billion. That could mean the Aussie REIT is a strong buy given its extensive asset base in 2020.

    To be fair, those asset values are probably heading lower thanks to the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent restrictions. However, that would have to be a significant (more than 50%) haircut to get back to $8.5 billion.

    What is driving the Mirvac share price lower this year?

    Unlike some REITs that have a specific niche, Mirvac is quite a diverse real estate investment group.

    The group has built an impressive portfolio comprising its residential, office and industrial, retail and built to rent segments. According to Mirvac’s 1H20 Fact Sheet from 6 February 2020, its office ($7.1 billion) and retail ($3.5 billion) segments dominate the portfolio.

    The group’s residential pipeline is strong, with 27,551 lots amounting to $13.9 billion worth of projects.

    Clearly, office and retail real estate is not in high demand right now. Many Aussies are working from home and/or restricted from shopping, let alone in large numbers.

    The Mirvac share price has been hammered in 2020 as investors have been spooked into selling. Mirvac did report a strong 99.1% occupancy in its February half-year results. While that’s likely to have materially changed thanks to the pandemic, I think it shows that Mirvac is a high-quality real estate manager.

    There are certainly big headwinds facing both office and retail real estate right now. Lower foot traffic (retail) and more remote working (office) looks likely to slash demand from tenants in the coming years. However, Mirvac did report a 5.9-year weighted average lease expiry (WALE) in February. The long-term nature of those leases could mean the REIT’s earnings withstand the short-term impacts from the pandemic.

    Are there other ASX REITs to buy?

    While the Mirvac share price has fallen lower this year, there is still a lot of uncertainty ahead. It’s true that Mirvac and its peers like Scentre and Stockland are heavily invested in office and retail real estate. Most investors aren’t bullish on the sector right now but I do think it’s worth a look given the recent sell-off.

    For another ASX REIT in a more in-demand sector, I’d check out National Storage REIT (ASX: NSR) in 2020.

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    Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Scentre Group. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

    The post Why the Mirvac share price is a good relative buy appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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