Is the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price a buy? The big ASX bank continues to grind higher after the initial COVID-19 share market selloff.

The CBA share price is still down 20% from the pre-COVID-19 peak in February 2020. But since 23 March 2020 it has actually risen by 33%. Not a bad return from one of Australia’s biggest businesses.

The recovery

I can see why the CBA share price has gone up so much over the past few years. Not only is Australia in a much better COVID-19 situation than most other countries, but the economic outlook looks a lot better than it did a few months.

Remember when it turned out that jobkeeper had been overestimated by tens of billions of dollars? 

A better COVID-19 situation makes for a stronger economy, which in turn benefits CBA.

The big ASX bank is leveraged to the strength, or weakness, of the economy. CBA lends to thousands of households and business across the country. If difficulties pop up then CBA’s loan book will feel it.

Will CBA and its share price face more pain?

It’s very hard to predict how the economy and share price will perform over the next couple of months. You can only make an educated guess. Share prices of companies should follow earnings over the longer-term. CBA has already warned that its FY20 profit faces a hit from increased credit provisions from potential COVID-19 impacts. Investors were expecting that, it’s why the share price fell in February and March. 

In the quarterly update to 31 March 2020 the bank said that it was adding a loan loss provision of $1.5 billion for COVID-19. That’s a big number, but in terms of its total loan book it was still a low number. At 31 March 2020, the ratio of home loan consumer arrears of more than 90 days was 0.63%, which was lower than the ratio at both March 2019 and March 2018.

The CBA share price could come under more pressure due to the ongoing Victorian lockdowns and perhaps if the NSW outbreak starts spreading out of control.

The net interest margin problem

A key measure of profitability for the banks is the net interest margin (NIM). It measures the difference between the cost of funding and the interest rate it charges its borrowers. The RBA, just like other central banks, has reduced the official interest rate. The Australian rate is now at a record low of just 0.25%.

CBA isn’t going to charge customers for holding cash in their transaction and other accounts, so each reduction of the interest rates lowers CBA’s NIM and makes it harder to maintain profit. This could therefore hinder the CBA share price.

How long will the CBA NIM be under pressure? RBA governor Phil Lowe said that interest rates will be low for years, though the rate is unlikely to go negative.

Is it a good time to buy shares?

I think CBA is a higher quality bank than the other ASX banks of Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and Australia and New Zealand Group (ASX: ANZ). It has a stronger balance sheet and it’s less exposed to business loans. Households have received a large amount of support during the global pandemic so far.

CBA shares are still cheaper than it was prior to COVID-19 exploding. I don’t know how much dividends it’s going to pay over the next 12 months. Using the trailing payments, it has a grossed-up dividend yield of 8.5%. But the upcoming dividends could be halved, or more, in the next two results so I wouldn’t buy CBA for short-term dividends right now.

Today’s CBA share price doesn’t seem cheap compared to most of the first half of FY20. I would wait for a better share price before buying CBA shares. There could be another selloff later this year and it doesn’t seem like great value to me right now with the potential negative outcomes for the economy. 

More reading

• Where will the Macquarie share price close the year?
• ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: Rocketing BNPL shares fail to stop ASX 200 slide
• How I’d build a $100,000 share portfolio with ASX ETFs
• 3 ASX shares I won’t hesitate to buy in the next market crash
• ANZ said there will be another wave of Victorian businesses collapsing

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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One of the best investing books I think you can read is Pat Dorsey’s ‘The Little Book That Builds Wealth’. The book is an excellent guide to identifying businesses with robust economic moats or competitive advantages.

One important moat described in Dorsey’s book is the moat of cost advantages, or cost moats. This refers to companies that can produce goods or services more cheaply than the competition, enabling them to win more customers and earn higher returns for shareholders. Cost moats are especially important in retail and commodity industries where price is a large part of a purchase decision.

Wesfarmers leads the pack on low-cost retail

The group of businesses that make up Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) exemplify the low cost advantage. The Wesfarmers retail arm includes large scale hardware chain Bunnings and big retail stores Kmart and Target. But in this example, let’s just look at Bunnings, which has huge purchasing power supported by its more than 370 stores (as at 31 December 2019).

Bunnings’ low cost model means that the business only reported an earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin of 12.6%, in the 2019 financial year. However, Bunnings’ sheer volume of sales turned that 12.6% margin into a monster return on invested capital (ROIC) of 50.1%!

Low-cost commodity kings

Cost advantages are essential for commodity producers because one product is interchangeable with the other. Price is the only difference to the customer, so being able to offer the lowest price is key to survival.

Fortunately, many ASX miners are able to operate at extremely low costs because of the enormous scale they operate on. Dividing overhead costs and exploration costs by vast quantities of gold, copper or iron helps Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM), BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) keep costs per unit down and maximise their returns.

Another example is LNG producer Woodside Petroleum Limited (ASX: WPL). Woodside’s large scale projects, like Pluto LNG, and access to energy rich basins helps the company to keep production costs per unit especially low.

In the 2019 financial year, Woodside Petroleum’s production cost per unit was just US$5.70 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe). Fellow energy producer Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) by comparison reported a unit production cost of US$7.24 per boe.

Foolish takeaway

Cost-based moats are incredibly valuable for retail companies and commodity producers that sell products that have no differentiation. If a company like Wesfarmers can sustain its low-cost advantage over the long term, it could make a highly prized addition to your investing portfolio.

More reading

• Why the Fortescue share price rallied over 40% to a record high in 2020
• These ASX dividend shares will help you beat low interest rates
• The rise and rise of ASX SaaS shares
• The Wesfarmers share price gets support from spin-off rumours
• How does the Fortescue share price compare to its peers?

Motley Fool contributor Regan Pearson has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

You can follow him on Twitter @Regan_Invests.

The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Wesfarmers Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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According to the latest economic report by Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), its team continues to forecast the cash rate staying on hold at the record low of 0.25% until at least the end of 2021.

Given recent economic data and the medium term outlook, I suspect that this forecast will prove accurate.

In light of this, I believe ASX dividend shares remain the best option for investors looking to generate a source of income right now.

Three top ASX dividend shares that I would buy are listed below. Here’s why I like them:

Aventus Group (ASX: AVN)

The first dividend share to look at is Aventus. It is a retail property company which specialises in large format retail parks across Australia. As of its last update, Aventus had a total of 20 centres which were home to a diverse tenant base of 593 quality tenancies. This includes many of the largest retailers in the country such as ALDI, Bunnings, Officeworks, and The Good Guys. With its portfolio weighted heavily towards everyday needs, I believe it is better positioned than most to ride out the current crisis. So much so, I estimate that Aventus shares provide a dividend yield of at least 6% for FY 2021.

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL)

I think this supermarket giant would be a quality option for income investors. I believe Coles is well-positioned to grow its earnings and dividend at a solid rate over the next decade thanks to its defensive qualities, positive sales outlook, and potential margin expansion from its focus on automation. Based on the latest Coles share price, I estimate that it provides investors with a fully franked 3.7% FY 2021 dividend yield.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES)

A final dividend share to consider buying is Wesfarmers. As with Coles, I like Wesfarmers for its defensive qualities and its positive long term outlook. The latter is especially the case now the government is supporting home improvements with additional stimulus. I expect this to give its Bunnings Warehouse business a big lift. And given how the hardware giant is now its biggest contributor to earnings, this is a big positive. I estimate that Wesfarmers’ shares offer investors a forward fully franked ~3.5% dividend yield.

More reading

• 3 ASX shares with incredible cost moats
• The Wesfarmers share price gets support from spin-off rumours
• ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: Rocketing BNPL shares fail to stop ASX 200 slide
• 3 top ASX dividend shares to buy instead of Westpac
• Strengthen your retirement portfolio with these ASX blue chip shares

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro owns shares of Westpac Banking. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of COLESGROUP DEF SET and Wesfarmers Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended AVENTUS RE UNIT. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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5G Networks Ltd (ASX: 5GN) shares could be a hidden gem in the ASX tech share sector. The company is a small player in the telecommunications carrier space, providing companies with cloud-based solutions, managed services and network services.

Could 5GN be the ASX tech share to buy in 2020? 

An exciting space with improving profitability 

In my view, 5GN is in a future proof space with core services similar to that of NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT) and Megaport Ltd (ASX: MP1), 2 leading ASX tech shares that have delivered significant shareholder value over the years. 

The company has shifted its focus to achieve further operational synergies combined with high margin annuity revenue. This is reflected in its 236% earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) growth in 1H20 against the prior corresponding period. 

In April, 5GN announced the commercial availability of its 5GN Cloud product. This private cloud platform allows for seamless integration with globally recognised servers such as Alibaba, AWS and Azure with high speed connectivity and market leading data centres. This solution aims to target mid-sized businesses that have struggled with implementing effective digital transformation in the past, as well as companies whose current IT footprint leaves them ill-equipped to handle flexible workplace requirements. 

A strong balance sheet to accelerate growth initiatives 

On 10 June, 5GN initiated a $18.3 million institutional placement at a fixed price of $1.23 per share. The company reported that the funds would be used to expand its fibre network in Sydney and Melbourne, and new builds in Brisbane and Adelaide, focused on CBD demand and key data centre locations.

The additional funds would also allow the company to explore M&A opportunities and additional unique growth opportunities. In the release, 5GN advised it will have a pro forma net cash position (as at 31 March 2020) of $16.4 million on completion of the placement.

Acquisition of ColoAU

On 8 July, 5GN announced the acquisition of ColoAU, a leading wholesale provider of data centre services and hyper-speed global networks. The purchase price for ColoAU is $2.4 million in cash and $500,000 in 5GN shares, with an earn-out of up to $500,000 in 5GN shares if revenue growth targets are achieved.

Normalised annual revenue for ColoAU is reported at $4.2 million and normalised EBITDA at $700,000. 5GN expects to realise significant synergies between the two businesses, in the range of $500–$700,000 per annum. 

This acquisition will allow 5GN to fast track its wholesale business, utilising ColoAU’s automated systems and on-demand provisioning platform to meet the growing demand for high-speed connectivity across cloud platforms and data centre hosting in Australia and international markets. 

Foolish takeaway

In my opinion, 5GN represents a high risk, high reward investment opportunity given its size and market capitalisation of just $100 million. However, I believe the company is in an exciting space, with recent growth in revenue to EBTIDA conversion. Its capital raising provides the company with much needed balance sheet flexibility and 5GN has also evidenced its growth initiative in acquiring ColoAU.

While 5GN may not be fit for all investors, it is certainly a high growth ASX tech share to watch. At the time of writing, the 5GN share price is trading for $1.16 per share, which is down 4.53% on last week’s close but up 48% year to date.  

More reading

• ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: Rocketing BNPL shares fail to stop ASX 200 slide
• How ASX investors can profit from the cloud computing boom
• These were the best performing ASX 200 shares last week
• 2 exciting ASX tech shares with enormous potential
• Why the NextDC share price jumped 10% higher in June

Lina Lim has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of MEGAPORT FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended MEGAPORT FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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With so many shares to choose from on the ASX, it can be hard to decide which ones to buy.

The good news is that brokers across the country are doing a lot of the hard work for you.

Three top shares that leading brokers have named as buys this week are listed below. Here’s why they are bullish on them:

BWX Ltd (ASX: BWX)

According to a note out of Citi, its analysts have retained their buy rating and $4.20 price target on this personal care products company’s shares. The broker notes that regulations in China are due to change in the near term. While the country isn’t a priority for the Sukin seller, Citi sees the changes as a big opportunity in the long term. Especially given the size of the Chinese cosmetics market. I think Citi makes some good points and BWX could be worth a closer look.

Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC)

A note out of Goldman Sachs reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating and $1.85 price target on this entertainment company’s shares. This follows the release of an update by Nine which revealed that it expects EBITDA of $390 million to $410 million in FY 2020. This was higher than Goldman expected and above the median consensus estimate of $388 million. Looking ahead, the broker is positive on its outlook and expects EBITDA growth of 9% in FY 2021. While it isn’t a company that I’m a big fan of, its shares do look decent value at ~15x forward earnings.

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)

Analysts at Morgan Stanley have upgraded this wine company’s shares to an overweight rating with an improved price target of $13.50. According to the note, the broker believes that it will take a couple of years until its earnings rebound to previous levels. However, it suspects that its shares could start to re-rate higher before then. The catalyst for this is expected to be the stabilisation of its U.S. business. I agree with Morgan Stanley and feel Treasury Wine could be a good buy and hold option.

More reading

• Why Galaxy, Platinum, Sezzle, & Treasury Wine shares are storming higher
• ASX shares tapping into the US market
• The Treasury Wine share price and this ASX 200 stock are the latest to be hit by broker downgrades today
• ASX 200 down 0.2%: Big four banks tumble, Afterpay surges higher again
• ASX 200 rises 0.6% today, Afterpay share price hits $75

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended BWX Limited and Treasury Wine Estates Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Warren Buffett – Chair and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) – is one of the greatest investors of all time. Luckily for us mere mortals, Buffett has a long and illustrious history of dishing out bite-sized pearls of investing wisdom. As he is nearly 90 years old, there is a pretty large collection of his wisdom available for our perusal. Luckily, our Fool colleagues over in the United States have compiled and distilled a fantastic collection of Buffett’s best quotes. Here are 3 to start your week off right:

“An investor should act as though he had a lifetime decision card with just twenty punches on it.”

This gem of a quote is an interesting one, conceptually. Warren Buffett is trying to tell us that investing is about research and conviction and that we should only invest in a company if we are willing to back it to the hilt. So rather than actually trying to limit yourself to 20 investments over your lifetime, just ask yourself whether you would buy this company if it represented 5% of your lifetime’s allocation to shares. You might find yourself reconsidering your investing career to date, as well as reevaluating your potential next target.

“All there is to investing is picking good stocks at good times and staying with them as long as they remain good companies.”

It sounds so easy when Buffett puts it like this! But he does have the track record to back it up. Some of the best investments Berkshire Hathaway holds today were picked by Warren Buffett decades ago. For example, Buffett acquired his current stake in American Express back in the 1960s –  a position Berkshire still holds today. I like to ask myself if I can see a potential ASX share in my portfolio forever. It’s a good starting point for choosing a company to invest in. If the answer is no, then this might be telling.

“In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.”

I think this quote is a great one to end on, as it perfectly encapsulates the current difficulties the market is facing as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Share markets, and the companies that trade on them, are built around free markets – the mechanism that has unleashed human potential and technological change for centuries now. If companies can survive and thrive through all of the catastrophes that Buffett lists above, then I think we can do the same over the course of this pandemic. So invest with caution but without fear, just like Warren Buffett does.

More reading

• 3 Warren Buffett quotes you need to read this week
• Has Warren Buffett lost his magic?
• 3 Warren Buffett quotes to start your week off right

Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Berkshire Hathaway (B shares) and recommends the following options: long January 2021 $200 calls on Berkshire Hathaway (B shares), short January 2021 $200 puts on Berkshire Hathaway (B shares), and short September 2020 $200 calls on Berkshire Hathaway (B shares). The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Berkshire Hathaway (B shares). We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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If you are looking for some quality ASX shares to add to your portfolio in July, I think the following are both worthy of consideration. Here’s why these ASX shares are in my buy zone right now:

2 ASX shares to buy right now

Macquarie Telecom Group Ltd (ASX: MAQ)

Macquarie Telecom is a local telecommunications provider that’s not as well known as rivals Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS), TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPM) and Vocus Group Ltd (ASX: VOC). However, this Aussie telco has actually been in operation for over two decades.

Macquarie Telecom services both the enterprise and government sectors. Its specialist services predominantly span the three market segments of data centres, cloud computing and cybersecurity solutions.

The Macquarie Telecom share price has seen strong growth over the past 12 months, having more than doubled in value since 15 July 2019. 

The company has also been financially outperforming many of its larger rivals. For the six months ended 31 December, Macquarie delivered a strong 9% increase in revenue on the prior corresponding period to $132 million. EBITDA growth for Macquarie was even more impressive. It grew by 24% to $31.6 million in the first half. The main driver of this growth was the company’s hosting business which saw strong demand for cloud services and related data centre services.

Macquarie Telecom also continues to benefit from the acceleration of cloud, data centre and cybersecurity trends, due to COVID-19. I believe the company is well positioned to continue growing strongly on the back of increasing demand for these core services over the next few years.

a2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

Despite the challenges resulting from the pandemic, the a2 Milk share price has continued to rise higher in 2020. Demand for the company’s products has remained strong throughout the crisis. The a2 Milk share price has increased from $14.16 at the beginning of February to its current price of $19.56.

a2 Milk announced a very strong 31.6% increase in total revenue to NZ$807 million in its half year FY 2020 results. More recently, the company revealed continued strong growth from late February to late April across all its operating regions. Demand for a2 Milk’s infant nutrition products in China and Australia has proven to be particularly strong.

I feel a2 Milk’s continued expansion into the massive United States and Chinese markets will be key to its success over the next 5 years. If the company is unable to achieve its ambitious growth targets for these markets, its share price is likely to be significantly impacted. However, I remain reasonably confident that a2 Milk is well placed to deliver on its growth objectives.

More reading

• ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: Rocketing BNPL shares fail to stop ASX 200 slide
• Strengthen your retirement portfolio with these ASX blue chip shares
• How ASX investors can profit from the cloud computing boom
• Turn $30,000 into $1,000,000 with ASX shares
• 3 ASX shares I won’t hesitate to buy in the next market crash

Motley Fool contributor Phil Harpur owns shares of A2 Milk and Telstra Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Telstra Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of A2 Milk. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Oil Search Limited (ASX:OSH) share price is down by 2% so far today after announcing an impairment charge prior to the announcement of its 2020 interim results.

Oil Search is engaged in the exploration, development and production of oil and gas in Papua New Guinea (PNG).

Impairment of exploration assets

In a release to the ASX today, Oil Search revealed it expects to recognise a non-cash pre-tax impairment charge of between US$360–US$400 million.

The company assessed the impact of economic conditions to the value of its assets and the impairments to be recognised largely relate to its PNG exploration licences.

The impairment expense is not expected to impact Oil Search’s cash earnings or cashflow. However, the impairment is yet to be audited and signed off on the half year results. Oil Search’s interim FY20 results are scheduled to be released on Tuesday 25 August 2020. 

Structural changes implemented

The Oil Search impairment news follows an organisational review announced earlier this month. As a result of its review, Oil Search implemented a number of structural changes, including a reduction in the headcount of employees and long-term contractors, an increase in female representation, and other cost saving and efficiency measures through the use of technology.

As a result of the cost saving measures, forecast 2020 production costs are expected to be approximately US$10.50/boe compared to prior production cost guidance of US$11–12/boe.

In addition, further cost savings are expected to be announced at the conclusion of implementation of the initiatives. 

Managing director Dr Keiran Wulf said:

We have reviewed how to make our company stronger by prioritising activities and focusing on the capabilities that are required for us to be successful under a range of economic conditions. The work undertaken has been assessed against an independent domestic and international industry organisational benchmarking study to ensure Oil Search’s new cost structures are competitive with global energy industry peers.

In addition, in February this year, the company’s chief financial officer (CFO) stood down from his role, which wasn’t a part of the review. Oil Search has confirmed that a new CFO has been appointed, Ayten Saridas, who will commence in mid-August. 

About the Oil Search share price

The Oil Search share price has fallen 60% in the past 12 months, compared to the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO)’s fall of 11.7%.

Oil Search shares have been heavily impacted by the fall in the oil price, caused by a significant reduction in demand because of the coronavirus pandemic and its associated reduction in travel. 

More reading

• The Wesfarmers share price gets support from spin-off rumours
• ASX 200 jumps 0.8%: Big four banks storm higher, TechnologyOne sinks
• How does the Fortescue share price compare to its peers?
• Why I’ll be watching the Super Retail share price in August
• St Barbara and 2 more ASX 200 shares to watch this week

Motley Fool contributor Matthew Donald has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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