The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) edged marginally higher as a number of ASX 200 shares surged last week. 

Last week I was watching Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB) and TechnologyOne Ltd (ASX: TNE).

Macquarie announced a $2,731 million full-year net profit and a $1.80 per share final dividend. That saw Macquarie shares surge 9.57% higher last week while Webjet shares jumped 9.33% higher on Friday as the Australian Government flagged an easing of restrictions. TechnologyOne shares also surged 7.05% higher as the ASX tech share climbed to a new 52-week high of $10.24 per share.

After a big week for last week’s top picks, here are the 3 ASX 200 shares that I’ll be keeping my eye on in the week ahead.

3 ASX 200 shares to watch this week

I think the Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd (ASX: CBA) share price is worth watching this week. Macquarie was the last of the major banks to report its earnings on Friday, but CBA reports on a different cycle. That means we haven’t seen the same level of interest in Australia’s largest bank compared to competitors like National Australia Bank Ltd. (ASX: NAB).

CBA shares could be on the move thanks to broader positivity about the Aussie economy. The government is looking to gradually ease restrictions, which is good for Aussie businesses. It’s also good for the banks that count these businesses amongst their clients.

Another ASX 200 share to watch this week is Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT). The Aussie travel company’s shares surged like Webjet’s on Friday, but I think there’s further to go. Domestic travel restrictions could soon be eased which is welcome relief for Flight Centre and its shareholders.

Having sold its Melbourne office tower for $62.5 million last week, Flight Centre could be in a solid financial position to restructure and turn things around.

Finally, I think Xero Limited (ASX: XRO) shares are worth watching. The ASX 200 tech share has lagged behind many of its WAAAX peers in recent weeks. Xero’s accounting platform is targeted at small and medium enterprises (SMEs). With more of these businesses preparing to re-open for business, that’s good news for keeping subscription numbers high in 2020.

More reading

• ASX tourism shares on watch as government flags easing of coronavirus restrictions
• Where to invest $20,000 into ASX shares for strong long term returns
• REA Group shares are up 53% since late March. Is it too late to invest?
• These ASX 200 shares saw the biggest falls last week
• How Macquarie Group is vying to unseat CBA

Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Macquarie Group Limited and Webjet Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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In late morning trade the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to start the week on a very positive note. At the time of writing the benchmark index is up 1.1% to 5,451.6 points.

Four shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here’s why they are dropping lower:

The Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp Ltd (ASX: FPH) share price is down 3% to $27.13. This is despite there being no news out of the medical device company. However, with its shares up almost 30% year to date, some investors may have decided to take a bit of profit off the table. Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s shares have been strong performers this year thanks to increasing demand for its ventilators.

The Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) share price is down 4% to $3.45. This follows news that China is threatening to slap an 80% import tax on Australian barley. China alleges that the Australian government is subsidising farmers and allowing them to dump barley into China at cheaper prices than those offered by Chinese farmers.

The Polynovo Ltd (ASX: PNV) share price is down 1.5% to $2.51. This decline appears to be down to profit taking. After all, the medical device company’s shares were on fire last week and recorded a gain of 28% over the period. This followed Polynovo’s appearance at the Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) Investor virtual conference. Management spoke positively about the $7.5 billion market opportunity for its NovoSorb product.

The SEEK Limited (ASX: SEK) share price is 1.5% lower at $17.18. At the end of last week analysts at Morgans downgraded SEEK’s shares to a reduce rating with a $15.55 price target. It believes that job listing volumes will be lower for longer and feels the market isn’t factoring this into its current share price.

More reading

• Indonesian market boom for 6 ASX shares
• These ASX shares booked the biggest gains last week
• These ASX 200 shares are up over 1,000% in just 3 years
• ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: New ASX bull run continues
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro owns shares of SEEK Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended SEEK Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The share prices of a number of ASX companies that were hit hardest by the coronavirus lockdown leapt higher on Friday afternoon after the Federal Government laid out its plans for the gradual easing of social restrictions. Travel agent Flight Centre Travel Group Limited (ASX: FLT) jumped over 8% to $10.76, while online flight comparison website Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB) ended the day up 9% at $2.93. 

Friday’s performance is little consolation to long-term shareholders, with both ASX tourism shares still well short of their pre-coronavirus highs. Flight Centre had begun the year hovering around $40 a share and is still down close to 75% year-to-date. Webjet has seen a similar percentage decline in its share price so far in 2020, after it opened the year trading at roughly $10, although it has rocketed out of the gates this morning and is currently up another 11.95% on Friday’s close.

However, the short-term rise does show that in investors are seeing glimmers of hope for both companies in the Australian Government’s “3 Step Framework for a COVIDSafe Australia”. While the future for global travel is still uncertain, the government has laid out a roadmap towards states reopening their borders for domestic recreational travel in the coming months. There are even whispers of a trans-Tasman bubble for some international travel between Australia and New Zealand by summer.

These are the first positive signs for a tourism industry which has been effectively destroyed by the coronavirus pandemic. Apart from some repatriation services, just about all international flights have been grounded as countries lock down their borders to halt the spread of the virus. Domestic tourism has all but ceased too, with states similarly closing their borders to outsiders and most people urged to stay indoors. An entire school holiday period has come and gone with most families confined to their houses.

Should you invest in ASX tourism shares?

Despite their recent gains, the share prices of both Webjet and Flight Centre are trading at historic lows. But the 2 companies are now operating in an economic environment which is fundamentally – and potentially even permanently – changed by the coronavirus. And while these most recent announcements by the government could lay the foundations for a slow path back to profitability for the failing tourism industry, business-as-usual is still a long way off.

Unfortunately for Webjet, it has invested heavily in expanded its international operations. In its first half FY20 results, Webjet reported a 43% jump in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to $86.3 million. But over 60% of group EBITDA was contributed by its WebBeds business, which provides international accommodation booking services. Domestic bookings were actually flat for the half.

It could easily be argued that in a new “COVIDSafe” economy where people are only able to travel domestically – or at best, to New Zealand – local travel bookings will increase. But whether they can increase to such a degree that they can offset the enormous losses in higher margin international bookings is very doubtful.

The steps back towards some degree of normality flagged by the Federal Government are a welcome sign for an economy crippled by coronavirus. But with so much uncertainty still on the horizon, it might be just too risky to think about investing in the tourism sector right now.

However, it’s also true that at these bargain-basement prices both companies offer significant upside potential for early movers. So, it will still definitely be worth watching Webjet and Flight Centre over the coming months as social restrictions ease to get a sense of what consumer behaviour will be like in our new “Covidsafe” economy.

More reading

• Market close: ASX 200 ends 0.5% higher
• Federal Government outlines 3-step plan to reopening Australia
• Is this the next major ASX financial institution to raise capital?
• Is the Flight Centre share price in the buy zone?
• Is it time to buy ASX travel shares again?

Motley Fool contributor Rhys Brock has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Webjet Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Last week, Trade Minister Simon Birmingham announced the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Deal between Australia exporters and Indonesia markets takes effect from 5 July 2020. This could not have come at a better time given the economic impacts from COVID-19.

Australia’s balance of payments surged to a record $10.6 billion in March. The largest in recorded history. This is due to strong export demand for iron ore and surging demand for gold. The lowest Australian dollar for almost 2 decades has also helped increase revenues.

Lastly, we have had the largest sudden fall in imports in our nation’s history. The deal will help Australian manufacturers to increase market share in our closest neighbour, extending our national trade surplus.

I believe the following ASX shares are the most likely to benefit immediately.

Targeted Indonesian market

GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) will see tariff-free exports of up to 500,000 tonnes of wheat, barley and sorghum to Indonesia each year. This will grow by 5% annually. This defensive share has become more important to our national economy during the pandemic than at any time in its history.

GrainCorp has rebuilt itself over the past 3 years after exports to Indonesia collapsed by over 70% amid drought and intense competition. This provides an opportunity to further rebuild markets into what used to be Australia’s largest wheat customer.

Other agricultural companies to benefit in this space include those in the red meat sector of beef and sheep. In this sector, tariffs will be immediately halved to 2.5% and eliminated totally over 5 years. This is likely to provide tangible benefits for Australian Agricultural Company Ltd (ASX: AAC) as well as Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD).

Dairy producers will also see tariffs eventually removed from their products. This creates an opportunity for market leaders like A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M), as well as rising challengers such as Synlait Milk Ltd (ASX: SM1).

Steel producers will have annual tariff-free access for 250,000 tonnes of rolled steel coil, exposing additional market share for companies such as BlueScope Steel Limited (ASX: BSL).

Foolish takeaway

Our nation’s ability to maintain an overall trade surplus is going to be crucial in the coming months and years. Many countries are set to see dramatic declines in economic activity as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

For Australia, free trade deals such as these providing increased access to Indonesian markets are likely to be the difference between a crushing depression and a swift path back to prosperity. 

More reading

• Where to invest $20,000 into ASX shares for strong long term returns
• These ASX shares booked the biggest gains last week
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• 3 of the best ASX 200 shares to buy and hold for 10 years
• How to make a $1 million share portfolio by investing $1,000 a month

Motley Fool contributor Daryl Mather has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of A2 Milk. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Elders Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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At the weekend I looked at how successful $20,000 investments had been in a number of popular ASX shares over the last 10 years.

But that was then and this is now. So, I thought I would take a look at three shares which I think could generate very strong returns for investors over the next 10 years.

Here’s why I would invest $20,000 in these ASX shares:

a2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

This infant formula and fresh milk company’s shares have been incredibly resilient during the recent market volatility. In fact, they are up around 30% since the start of the year. The good news is that I don’t think it is too late to invest with a long term view. Especially given the demand it continues to experience for its infant formula products in the lucrative China market. I believe this and its expanding fresh milk footprint will continue to underpin strong earnings growth over the next decade.

Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN)

Another company to consider investing $20,000 into is Kogan. It is a growing ecommerce company and Australia’s answer to Amazon. I think it is a great long term option for investors due to the continued shift to online shopping in the country. An estimated ~10% of retail spending is made online at the moment in Australia. I expect this number to grow materially over the next decade and beyond, which will only benefit Kogan.

Xero Limited (ASX: XRO)

I think this cloud-based business and accounting software provider would be a great place to invest $20,000. This is due to its global market opportunity, the quality and stickiness of its product, and its strong pricing power. The latter two are evident in both its customers numbers and churn rate. During the first half of FY 2020, Xero grew its subscribers by 30% to 2.057 million and reported a churn rate of just 1.1%. This was despite it lifting its prices in some markets. In respect to its market opportunity, it is estimated that less than 20% of the global English-speaking SME market is using cloud-based accounting software. I believe this gives it a massive runway for growth. Though, with its full year result due later this week, it might be worth holding fire until that release.

More reading

• Indonesian market boom for 6 ASX shares
• REA Group shares are up 53% since late March. Is it too late to invest?
• These ASX 200 shares saw the biggest falls last week
• These ASX shares booked the biggest gains last week
• Is Santos the best ASX 200 energy share?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Altium and Xero. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Phillip Capital has rated ASX cannabis share Althea Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: AGH) a buy with a target price of 57 cents. Shares in the medical marijuana distributor are currently trading at 39 cents. The broker is positive on the company, saying Althea’s execution to date has been excellent. 

Who is Althea?

Althea was founded in Melbourne in 2017 and holds licenses to import, cultivate, produce, and supply medicinal cannabis to eligible Australian patients. At the end of March, Althea had supplied medicinal cannabis to 5,800 patients via 509 healthcare professionals. 

International interests 

Althea has business interests in Germany and Canada. The company recently signed a 3-year supply agreement with Nimbus Health GmbH, a pharmaceutical wholesaler with 25% medicinal cannabis market share in Germany. 

Nimbus will sell and distribute Althea’s full suite of medicinal cannabis products under the Althea brand name in Germany. Althea will receive payment for products supplied, as well as 50% of the net profit on sales. In Germany, 120,000 patients have been prescribed medicinal cannabis to date. This number is expected to grow to 1 million by 2024. 

Althea acquired Canadian company Peak Processing Solutions last year. The company plans to produce edible, extract, and topical cannabis products. A building re-fit of its plant has been completed and regulatory approval is anticipated shortly. 

What does the broker say? 

In Australia, each of Althea’s prescribing doctors has an average of 11.4 medicinal cannabis patients, up from 4 a year ago. Althea’s Australia sales have gone from zero in FY17 to $0.8 million in FY18 to a forecast $5 million in FY20. Phillip Capital is forecasting sales of $12.1 million in FY21 and $19 million in FY22. 

Phillip Capital likes the large market opportunity in Germany and is optimistic on the Canadian opportunity. Althea will target the 2,500+ doctors in Germany who are actively prescribing medicinal cannabis, providing education through its Concierge platform. Based on Althea’s Australian performance, Phillip Capital estimates Althea will achieve 7.5% market share in Germany in year 3. 

The broker says the German expansion looks to be an excellent move. The market is only 3 years old, has supportive government access rules, and strong reimbursement from health funds in place. In Canada, it is anticipated several initial customers will be announced imminently. Phillip Capital is predicting Peak Processing Solutions will exceed its year 1 target of C$7 million sales by 50%.

Outlook

Althea’s international businesses are effectively in start-up mode, and Peak Processing is a contract processing business which is completely new for Althea. This means a wide range of outcomes is possible for the business. Nonetheless, the medicinal cannabis sector is expected to remain resilient through the coronavirus pandemic. 

More reading

• How did ASX cannabis shares perform in the latest quarter?
• Can ASX cannabis shares survive coronavirus?

Motley Fool contributor Kate O’Brien has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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According to just about everyone, Australia and indeed the world economy is going into recession. While there may be a few factors contributing to the global recession, it is clear that the coronavirus pandemic is the primary cause.

While a recession is not good for most businesses, there are some companies that may fare well and even improve their earnings during a time of economic downturn. This is because their business model allows them to benefit from some of the economic phenomenon occurring around them. For example, during a recession an increase in people not paying their bills can be a boon for debt collection companies.

If the recession is prolonged, investors may get some security from holding assets that can thrive in a market downturn while other companies suffer.

Here are 3 ASX companies that are counter-cyclical and could do very well through the pending recession.

Credit Corp Group Limited (ASX: CCP)

Credit Corp buys and collects non-performing debts owed by consumers in both Australia and the US. It is the largest debt purchase and collection company in Australia and has been listed on the ASX since 2000.

The company has announced a capital raising of $150 million in order to take advantage of increased supply of the debts which it purchases and collects, brought about by the coronavirus. It has also announced that its balance sheet will remain secure in a variety of scenarios.

Credit Corp has cut costs significantly since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, and its CEO and directors fees have been reduced by 50%. This helps in positioning it well to take advantage of the current situation. The increases in provisions for bad debts recently announced by National Australia Bank Ltd. (ASX: NAB), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) will provide ample business for Credit Corp as it picks up the scraps of Australia’s bad debts.

As part of its capital raising, Credit Corp also announced its interest in purchasing competitors’ books. This could provide an opportunity for a significant boost to earnings as it acquires cheap assets brought on by the COVID-19 recession. Credit Corp could also consider expanding into new markets as it finds itself facing a recession with significant cash on hand.

Cash Converters International Ltd (ASX: CCV)

Cash Converters is an international personal finance and pawnbroking business, mainly operating in Australia with franchises around the world. The business has a loan book of $224.2 million and achieved $42.4 million in retail sales in the first half of the 2020 financial year.

The types of personal loans that Cash Converters specialises in, known as payday loans, are likely to be in high demand during a recession as people find themselves short on cash. Payday loans are short term loans of as little as a few weeks, usually with a high interest rate. This type of lending has proven highly profitable for Cash Converters over many years. Additionally, during times of hardship people are likely to hunt for bargains rather than pay full price for retail goods. While this may be bad news for retailers like Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (ASX: HVN), it could provide a boost to Cash Converters.

Cash Converters has remained quiet about the effects of the coronavirus lockdowns on its business. However, as last reported, 53.9% of its loans originated online. This means that it is likely that the company has seen continued demand for loans during lockdowns.

While the recession could mean an increase in defaults on existing loans, people are likely to need additional cash while economic times are tough. In the US for example, a report by the Chicago Federal Reserve observed a sharp increase in payday loans during the GFC. If there is a sharp increase in demand for new payday loans in Australia through the pending recession, Cash Converters is likely to have a highly profitable few years ahead.

Betashares U.S Strong Bear Hedge Fund ETF (ASX: BBUS)

This exchange-traded fund (ETF) is an interesting one. It aims to provide returns that are negatively correlated to the US S&P 500. This means that as the US enters a bear market, returns will be positive. When the US starts to recover and the S&P 500 rises, returns will be negative. In this way, this ETF is like betting against the S&P 500 index of the 500 biggest US companies.

During a recession this could be an effective strategy, particularly if share prices drop further. In the long term, however, this is probably not a great strategy and holders will need to consider when a recovery in the S&P 500 is coming to close out their position. Historically, the S&P 500 index has eventually recovered through difficult times.

During March this year when world financial markets were crashing, this ETF rose from a low of $2.61 to $6.80. That’s a return of 160.53%. It currently sits back at $3.19 due to the recovery in share prices. However, this is one to hold if you believe that this will be a prolonged bear market with further dips in financial markets.

More reading

• Here are all the ASX 200 companies that have announced capital raisings so far in 2020
• Market close: ASX 200 jumps over 2%
• The new hunting ground for ASX value buys isn’t where you’d expect
• ASX 200 up 1.2%: ANZ defers its dividend and Woolworths reports sales surge
• Why Credit Corp, IOOF, Mesoblast, & Oil Search are surging higher

Motley Fool contributor Chris Chitty has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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One of the hardest-hit sectors on the ASX amid COVID-19 is aviation shares. Australia is carefully opening up the economy. However, the rest of the world is still in crisis. 

Bleak outlook for ASX aviation shares

One high profile company to be impacted is Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN). Qantas has seen a dispute with Perth Airport erupt at the same time its flights have dropped to near zero. This has resulted in Qantas receiving termination notices. Even without this conflict, the airline faces near-term uncertainty. Nevertheless, if the terminations are carried out, the entire airline industry could alter. 

Sydney Airport Holdings Pty Ltd (ASX: SYD) is another high-profile casualty. This airport has seen domestic passengers reduce by 97.4%, while international passengers dropped by 96.1% in the first 16 days of April. Domestic flights and trans-Tasman flights to New Zealand appear possible in the near term. This will provide some income for Sydney Airport. However, it is still a long way from its performance in January.

Air New Zealand Limited (ASX: AIZ) has seen its share price fall by 59% year-to-date. Air New Zealand is a far smaller company than Qantas and Sydney Airport by market capitalisation. As such, it requires less volume to regain momentum. However, the limited flights across the Tasman sea or domestically within New Zealand are still a long way from its usual international traffic. 

The safe haven

Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ) is a small-cap ASX aviation share. It operates a number of “wet lease” services for Virgin Australia Holdings Limited (ASX: VAH) which has impacted its revenues. However, the core of its work comes from fly-in fly-out operations for the nation’s resources sectors. All of these flights are continuing.

Mining and oil and gas companies are the hardened core of our economy. They are responsible for our recent trade surplus and are essential to our short-term survival. Throughout Australia, these companies have made significant changes to adapt to COVID-19. Social distancing within aircraft means reduced passengers per flight and is likely to see an increase in overall flights.

On 1 May, Alliance announced a new 10-year airline services contract with South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) for the Cannington and Groote Eylandt (GEMCO) mine sites, further cementing its reputation as a provider of choice for fly-in fly-out operations. In fact, Alliance does not even operate from Sydney airport, preferring to service regional centres and smaller airports. 

I believe that no matter what happens from this point forward, there is little chance Alliance will see any reduction in its fly-in fly-out operations.

Foolish takeaway

While there is a reduction in wet lease flights on behalf of Virgin Airlines, Alliance has been able to maintain its momentum through its focus on fly-in fly-out operations. In fact, it is likely to see flights increase to cater for social distancing in distance commuting. As intra-state travel begins to open up, I believe Alliance will see its revenues come back before the large players in the field.

If the feud between Perth Airport and Qantas escalates further, it may gain further market share.

More reading

• These ASX 200 shares saw the biggest falls last week
• ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: New ASX bull run continues
• 3 ASX 200 shares to buy before the market rebounds
• 3 ASX dividend shares for income investors to buy next week
• These were the worst performing ASX 200 shares last week

Motley Fool contributor Daryl Mather has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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