Analysts at Goldman Sachs have been looking over the iron ore market amid the weakening demand backdrop for the steel making ingredient.

The good news for iron ore producers such as BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG), and Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO), is that the investment bank doesn’t expect prices to fall to the levels we saw during the last downturn in 2014 to 2016.

How low will prices go?

Goldman Sachs expects the iron ore market to move into surplus in late May/June on higher Australian and Brazil shipments and lower (ex-China) steel demand.

It suspects this will lead to the iron ore price retracing to US$70.00 per tonne, before rebounding to US$85 per tonne in the fourth quarter on an expected recovery in global steel demand.

Its analysts offered five reasons why this is expected to be the case:

Reason 1. Goldman notes that the market was in a large surplus position (30-60Mtpa) during 2014-2016 due to the ramp-up of new supply from the iron ore majors. Whereas, this time the market was in a deficit before the pandemic.

Reason 2. In addition to this, the exit of high cost iron ore production (from China, SE Asia, India and West Africa) was slow during 2014-2016. It notes that higher cost supply did not return from 2017-2019 despite high prices, and reserve depletion is only accelerating amongst Tier 2&3 producers.

Reason 3. Another reason is that the majors brought on >300Mt of new capacity from 2014 to 2016. However, mining giants Rio Tinto and Vale have been struggling to increase their production in 2019-2020 due to ongoing operational issues.

Reason 4. Goldman also feels that the rise in Induction Furnace (IF) capacity in China that used scrap impacted iron ore demand previously. However, these IFs were phased out from 2016 and have been replaced by large blast furnaces which has boosted iron ore demand.

Reason 5. Finally, in 2014-2015 a policy-driven downturn in the Chinese property market impacted steel and iron ore demand significantly. This time around the Chinese property market is rebounding with improving sales and starts.

Overall, this should ensure that prices remain high and BHP, Fortescue, and Rio Tinto continue to generate significant free cash flows over the next 12 months.

More reading

• Looking for dividend income? Try these 3 ASX shares
• How to invest $1,000 like Warren Buffett today
• Why CBA, CSR, Fortescue, & Northern Star shares are pushing higher
• Safe dividend stocks to buy today for the COVID-19 world
• Why diversification is important and how to diversify your portfolio with ASX shares

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Dividends have become something of a scarce commodity on the ASX these days. Many formerly ‘reliable’ ASX shares have deferred or cancelled their dividend payments in 2020 – and we’re only in May! We may well see many more ASX companies follow suit before the year is out.

So with that in mind, here are 3 ASX shares I would buy for my dividend income throughout the rest of 2020 and beyond!

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

BHP has long been a solid dividend payer for ASX income investors, but I think this mining giant will be especially useful as we navigate through 2020. That’s because BHP will likely be fairly cashed-up and ready to reward their shareholders, unlike most ASX companies.

BHP’s largest operations are iron ore mines. Iron ore is a commodity whose price has held up remarkably well in 2020 and at the time of writing, is still over US$90 a tonne. These high prices should be enough to keep BHP’s dividend spigots open and the cash flowing in 2020 and beyond.

WAM Research Limited (ASX: WAX)

WAM Research is one of my favourite ASX dividend shares. It’s a listed investment company (LIC) that invests in small to mid-cap ASX shares that it perceives as undervalued. It uses the profits from these investments to fund its generous dividend. On current prices, WAM Research shares are carrying a trailing dividend of 7.6%, or 10.86% grossed-up.

Even though the company’s share price usually trades at a healthy premium to its underlying value, this yield will make it worthwhile for many income investors out there!

AGL Energy Limited (ASX: AGL)

AGL is an energy giant with significant electricity generation and transmission assets across the country as well as a gas distribution network. It’s one of the largest power companies in Australia.

Utilities like AGL are highly defensive (we need electricity all the time, after all) and thus, can provide a high and relatively ‘safe’ dividend stream (if there is such a thing). On current prices, AGL shares are offering a trailing dividend yield of 6.8%, partially franked.

Yes, AGL might be hit in the short-term by people deferring bill payments and other hardships related to the coronavirus shutdowns but, still, I think this company would be a solid ASX dividend share to have in 2020 and beyond.

More reading

• Goldman Sachs names 5 reasons iron ore prices won’t crash
• How to invest $1,000 like Warren Buffett today
• Safe dividend stocks to buy today for the COVID-19 world
• Why diversification is important and how to diversify your portfolio with ASX shares
• Why high yield dividend shares can be detrimental to your wealth

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen owns shares of WAM Research Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Shares in Ecofibre Ltd (ASX: EOF) have jumped 10% today after the cannabis company announced an exclusive distribution agreement. Under the agreement, Ecofibre’s topical hemp-derived products will be offered for sale through CVS pharmacies in the US. 

What does Ecofibre do?

Ecofibre is a biotechnology company which produces and sells hemp-derived products in Australia and the US. The company owns one of the largest and most diverse collections of genetics with over 300 landraces of cannabis from more than 25 countries. 

Ecofibre’s Ananda Hemp business processes hemp into nutraceutical products that promote health and wellness. The Ananda Food business provides customers with Australian grown and processed hemp-based foods.

Hemp Black is Ecofibre’s industrial use business that focuses on solutions across a spectrum of markets including fabrics, healthcare, composites, and building materials. 

New distribution agreement

Under the distribution agreement with CVS, Ecofibre will initially supply 10 products for sale exclusively at CVS pharmacy locations. Products will be manufactured at Ecofibre’s US headquarters in Georgetown, Kentucky. The products are expected to be available for purchase at select CVS locations from December 2020. The agreement is ongoing and covers future purchases with no minimum or maximum value. 

Ecofibre’s David Neu said, “we are very pleased to have been selected to supply this brand of products to be offered exclusively at CVS, and are excited at the long-term prospects of providing high-quality hemp-derived products to a broad range of consumers.”

Recent performance

Ecofibre reported revenue of $14.2 million in the March quarter, a 42% increase on the prior corresponding period, but down 4% on the previous quarter. The quarterly result was influenced by the dislocation in US hemp-derived cannabidiol (CBD) companies and the onset of COVID-19. 

Standards of professionalism and quality required by distributors and customers have continued to increase, causing significant industry disruption. Many low-quality manufacturers involuntarily exited the industry during the March quarter. 

Ecofibre has shifted to a wholesale distribution model with 2 significant buying groups added during the quarter. The shift is based on the expectation that the CBD industry must align with the existing US health care wholesale distribution model in the long term. Ecofibre expects to gain access to more pharmacies and practitioners over time. 

The balance sheet remains debt-free and capable of supporting working capital requirements for all 3 business lines. CEO Eric Wang said, “Ecofibre remains very positive over the medium-term . . . in the short-term we are acting on opportunities to accelerate growth where they are aligned to our strategy.”

More reading

• Goldman Sachs names 5 reasons iron ore prices won’t crash
• Looking for dividend income? Try these 3 ASX shares
• Leading broker names CBA shares as a sell
• ASX fundie says ASX 200 was more volatile in March than during the GFC
• 3 quality mid cap ASX shares to buy with $3,000

Motley Fool contributor Kate O’Brien has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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In afternoon trade the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price is down 2.5% to $59.22.

This means the banking giant’s shares are now down 38% from their 52-week high.

Unfortunately for shareholders, one leading broker still believes they could be heading lower from here.

Who is bearish on Commonwealth Bank?

This morning analysts at Goldman Sachs retained their sell rating but lifted the price target on the company’s shares slightly to $56.40.

According to the note, Commonwealth Bank’s third quarter cash earnings of $1.3 billion is running well short of the broker’s second half expectations.

Though It acknowledges that this weakness has been driven entirely by higher provisions for bad and doubtful debts because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Excluding one offs, its profits were running ahead of its estimates. This was driven by better than expected net interest income (NIM) growth and partly offset by higher expenses.

So why is Goldman Sachs bearish?

Goldman Sachs’ main issue with Commonwealth Bank is its valuation. It doesn’t believe the bank deserves to trade at such a premium to National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and the rest of the big four.

Goldman notes that Commonwealth Bank’s pro-forma CET1 ratio, adjusted for announced but not yet completed asset sales, will fall 45 basis points half on half. This will bring its pro-forma CET1 advantage over its peers to <1%, from >1.5% at the end of the first half.

“Therefore, while we remain of the view that the CBA balance sheet looks the most defensive of the major Australian banks (provisions, capital, funding etc), we cannot justify the 25% 12-mo forward PER premium it trades on versus peers (vs. 14% 15-yr av.) and we stay Sell,” it explained.

Its preferred pick in the sector remains NAB. Goldman has a conviction buy rating and $17.50 price target on its shares.

More reading

• Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to sell right now
• ASX 200 down 0.9%: Xero posts strong growth & Australian economy loses 594,300 jobs
• Why Beach, CBA, Qantas, & Xero shares are dropping lower
• What happens to ASX shares if Australian house prices do fall 30%?
• Is the CBA share price a buy?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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We all know the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) market crash that we saw in March was both brutal and filled with extreme volatility. After all, the ASX 200 went from over 7,100 points to under 4,500 points in just over 1 month – a ~40% turnaround which quickly wiped out years’ worth of gains.

But research from ASX fundie Allan Gray actually proves what we were all thinking – the March market crash was the most brutal the ASX has seen since Black Monday in 1987. Not in terms of sheer losses – the GFC still comes out on top there, but in terms of market volatility.

According to Allan Gray, March 2020’s intraday stock market volatility was:

“Greater than at any other time [since 2000] and significantly exceeded the peaks during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) between 2007 and 2009. In March this year there were nine trading days with volatility above 10%, seven of them consecutive. During the GFC there were only four days in total with greater than 10% intraday volatility and no consecutive trading days.”

Despite these extraordinary statistics, Allan Gray’s Chief Investment Officer, Simon Mawhinney, stated it wasn’t all bad news during March and investors should take advantage of volatility when it does happen:

“Volatility is your friend when investing for the long term, with the at times extreme fluctuations in price presenting excellent long-term buying opportunities. The causes of the current bout of volatility are certainly different . . . but in each of the previous bouts of market volatility, significant opportunities were presented to long-term, patient investors. It is hard to believe that this will be any different today.”

How do we invest if the ASX crashes again?

I think Allan Gray makes some great points. Yes, volatility can be extremely scary when it does occur, but it also gives us a chance to invest in ASX shares at great prices. Volatility often indicates emotion and irrationality in the markets, which is usually when shares become detached from their intrinsic value. Warren Buffett wouldn’t be nearly as rich as he is today if it weren’t for these kinds of periods.

Just think, anyone who took advantage of the volatility in the Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) share price over March would be sitting on gains close to 400% today.

Volatility never lasts, but the decisions you make during those times of high volatility do. Make them count!

More reading

• These ASX shares are set to dominate the post-COVID-19 economy
• 3 common mistakes millennials make investing in ASX shares
• This ASX growth share has rocketed 150% higher since March. Is it too late to invest?
• Why I’d buy and hold Telstra shares for a decade
• How to invest $1,000 like Warren Buffett today

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Australian share market is home to a large number of mid cap shares. The good thing about this is that mid caps generally carry less risk than small caps, but stronger potential returns than large caps.

This arguably makes it one of the best areas for investors to look for market beating returns over the next decade. But which mid cap shares should you buy?

Three that I would buy with $3,000 are listed below. Here’s why I rate them:

Bubs Australia Ltd (ASX: BUB)

Bubs is an infant formula and baby food company which has been growing at a very strong rate over the last few years. And thanks to some recent supply agreements with Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) and Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW), it looks well-placed to continue this trend. While previously it was running loss-making operations, it recently revealed positive quarterly operating cashflows. I’m optimistic this means the company has now reached a scale which will make its operations more and more profitable in the coming years. As a result, I think it could be a good long term option for investors.

Opthea Ltd (ASX: OPT)

Opthea is a developer of novel biologic therapies for the treatment of eye diseases. The key attraction to the company for me is the OPT-302 combination therapy. Last year Opthea delivered very strong Phase 2b study results. If its Phase 3 trial proves just as successful, then the future could be very bright for the company. The current standard of care treatments for wet age-related macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema had sales of over US$3.7 billion and US$6.2 billion in 2018. Another positive is that Opthea has a very strong balance sheet and appears well-funded to see OPT-302 through its trials.

Pushpay Holdings Group Ltd (ASX: PPH)

Pushpay is a fast-growing donor management platform provider for the faith, not-for-profit, and education sectors. Due to the quality of its product, Pushpay has been growing its share of the U.S. market at a rapid rate in recent years. This has led to the company’s recurring revenues increasing very strongly. The good news is that it still has a long runway for growth. Last week it revealed that it is targeting 50% of the medium to large church market. This represents a US$1 billion opportunity, which is many multiples what it achieved in FY 2020.

More reading

• ASX shares I’d invest $10,000 into today
• How to build good wealth with small investments
• Is it time to buy ASX small caps for your portfolio?
• The Pushpay share price is up 70% in 2020: Why I would still invest
• 3 ASX growth shares to buy immediately with $3,000

James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of BUBS AUST FPO. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended PUSHPAY FPO NZX. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of COLESGROUP DEF SET. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BUBS AUST FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The spread of coronavirus is reshaping our economic future and paving the way for new winners among ASX shares. Structural shifts have been accelerated with remote working, digital payments, and e-commerce benefitting from more widespread adoption. 

ASX shares have faced very different fates since borders closed in March. The banking sector has taken a hit with profits and dividends plummeting. The travel sector remains in limbo. The retail sector has suffered from store closures and declining sales. But some individual ASX shares are not just surviving, but thriving in this new COVID-19 world. 

Online shopping has surged as consumers in lockdown go to the web for everything from essentials to luxury goods. Companies leveraged to this trend are benefitting. Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN) and Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) are 2 ASX shares that are emerging as potential winners in the post-COVID world. 

Kogan sales and customers surge 

Kogan added 139,000 active customers in April, bringing its total number of active customers to 1,948,000. Gross sales in April 2020 grew by more than 100% compared to April 2019, leading to growth in gross profit of 150%. Kogan is Australia’s only diversified online retailer, and customers have inundated it as an alternative to physical shopping. 

The Kogan business model relies on offering products at lower prices than competitors, aggressively building market share while operating on slim profit margins. As an online-only retailer, Kogan benefits from lower costs than competitors with a physical presence, saving on store rental and staffing costs. 

Kogan launched Kogan Marketplace last year which allows third parties to sell via its website. The venture has been performing well, with sales growing 7% quarter-on-quarter between December and March. March 2020 sales were up 69% on February 2020 sales. The venture reduces working capital demands which should allow for greater profitability in future. 

Afterpay benefits from shift to online 

Buy now, pay later provider Afterpay has also benefited from the surge in online shopping with March being its third-largest underlying sales month on record. Underlying sales in the March quarter increased 97% compared to Q3 FY19. For the year to date, Afterpay has reported underlying sales of $7.3 billion, growing at 105% compared to the prior corresponding period (pcp). 

Healthy growth in merchant and customer numbers was recorded during the March quarter – active customers grew to 8.4 million, up 122% on the pcp. Merchant numbers grew to 48,400 globally, up 78% on the pcp. 

Foolish takeaway

The future of shopping and payments is changing rapidly thanks to coronavirus. Kogan and Afterpay are at the forefront of this shift. 

More reading

• 3 common mistakes millennials make investing in ASX shares
• This ASX growth share has rocketed 150% higher since March. Is it too late to invest?
• 2 exciting ASX tech shares to buy right now
• Could these small cap ASX shares be the next Afterpay?
• 3 top ASX shares to buy now and hold for 10 years

Motley Fool contributor Kate O’Brien has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Kogan.com ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Most ASX investors make mistakes in their investing careers – none of us are perfect but millennials, through being the youngest and often the most inexperienced group of investors, often make a disproportionate amount.

Whilst this is totally normal, it doesn’t change the fact that making mistakes when investing is financially painful and it’s far better to learn from someone else’s mistakes than your own.

So here are three mistakes I often see millennials make when investing in ASX shares:

Mistake 1 – obsessing over share prices

This is one of the most common things I see with young investors out there. I have had excited friends tell me that one of their stocks was “up 1% today” and so they were ‘raking it in’. Whilst I think keeping an eye on your shares is a great idea, checking them every hour of the day isn’t. Investing is a long-term game, not something that should be tracked just based on normal market fluctuations. As Warren Buffett once said: “If you buy a farm, do you go up and look every couple of weeks to see how far the corn is up?”

Mistake 2 – buying too high, selling too low

This one is a common mistake and also one that will set you back dramatically. I have seen many millennial investors get very excited when their shares go up in value. So excited, in fact, that they think they have to ‘lock-in’ their gains, even if they’ve only owned their shares for a few months. On the other hand, they can pile more money in, chasing those ‘sweet gains’.

Conversely, I have also seen would-be investors buy shares and, after watching them go down 5% or 10%, sell out, thinking they’ve made a terrible mistake.

Again, this is letting the markets dictate what you do, which is a terrible habit to get into if you want decent returns over the long-term.

Mistake 3 – not diversifying

I once met a young investor who told me (very proudly) that he only owned two ASX shares – Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) and Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P). On one hand, I think everyone should invest in companies they find interesting and exciting. But there is a limit. If your entire portfolio consists of unprofitable payments companies, you are leaving yourself open to a lot of risk.

That’s why I think it’s important for new investors to build up a diversified portfolio of companies across at least a few different industries. That way you are not wiped out if the government bans buy-now, pay-later offerings, for instance. If you only find interest in one area, you can always use exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to give your portfolio a little more balance.

More reading

• 2 exciting ASX tech shares to buy right now
• Could these small cap ASX shares be the next Afterpay?
• 3 top ASX shares to buy now and hold for 10 years
• If you invested $10,000 in the Afterpay IPO, this is how much you’d have now
• Is the Zip share price in the buy zone?

Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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On Wednesday I looked at three ASX shares that brokers have given buy ratings to this week.

Unfortunately, not all shares are in favour with them right now. Three that have just been given sell ratings are listed below.

Here’s why these brokers are bearish on them:

Amcor PLC (ASX: AMC)

According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts have retained their sell rating but lifted their price target on this packaging company’s shares to $12.50. Amcor delivered stronger than expected earnings growth in the third quarter. Its EBIT increased 10% compared to Goldman’s 7% forecast. However, it remains sell rated on valuation grounds. It notes that Amcor is trading at a notable premium to other packaging companies under its coverage. Amcor’s shares are changing hands for $14.10 this afternoon.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)

A note out of Morgan Stanley reveals that its analysts have retained their underweight rating and cut the price target on this banking giant’s shares to $56.00. According to the note, following the release of its third quarter update, the broker sees little reason that Commonwealth Bank’s shares should trade at a premium to its peers. In addition to this, it has forecast a sizeable dividend cut in August and has concerns over margin pressures. The Commonwealth Bank share price is down almost 3% to $59.16 this afternoon.

Sigma Healthcare Ltd (ASX: SIG)

Analysts at UBS have retained their sell rating and 53 cents price target on this pharmacy chain operator and distributor’s shares following its trading update. Although Sigma reported strong sales growth in March because of the pandemic, it notes that management has decided against providing guidance for FY 2021 at this stage. So, with its shares trading at approximately 20x estimated forward earnings, UBS sees no reason to change its rating at this point. The Sigma share price is trading at 57.5 cents this afternoon.

More reading

• ASX 200 down 0.9%: Xero posts strong growth & Australian economy loses 594,300 jobs
• Why Beach, CBA, Qantas, & Xero shares are dropping lower
• What happens to ASX shares if Australian house prices do fall 30%?
• Is the CBA share price a buy?
• Negative interest rates coming? Here’s what it would mean for ASX shares

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Amcor Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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