• Risk of Ruin – Doomed to Failure

    I am new to trading, and after some backtest, I was trying to calculate the risk of Ruin. The formula goes like:

    R=[(1-A)/(1+A)]c

    R: probability of Ruin A:The difference between the percentages of wining trades and the percentage of losing trades. c: the number of trades in a account

    Now it seems that by using that formula, if you have a winning percentage below 50% you are always doomed to failure, am I correct? I'm using a trading system with about just 20% winning rate but a R/R of at least 12, sometimes going to 50…

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    source https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/ghqmga/risk_of_ruin_doomed_to_failure/

  • Buybacks: A Floor Under the Price of Apple Inc Stock

    Buybacks: A Floor Under the Price of Apple Inc StockIf you own Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock, or you’ve been following it, then you probably already know that the company has been buying back large quantities of its own shares for years. Indeed, the number of shares of Apple Inc. stock outstanding has been declining steadily since 2013. You very likely understand that when fewer […]

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  • Oil Loses Steam as Doubts Surface Over Saudi Production Cuts

    Oil Loses Steam as Doubts Surface Over Saudi Production Cuts(Bloomberg) — Oil’s rally lost steam even after Saudi Arabia said it would slice production by an extra million barrels a day in June as doubts surfaced over whether the producer will fulfill its pledge.Futures in New York and London erased morning gains that followed Saudi Arabia saying it will pump 7.492 million barrels a day next month, about a million barrels below its official OPEC+ output target. That would be the lowest level since mid-2002, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.“While Saudi is undoubtedly the market’s swing supplier, delivering such a volume turnaround in the space of only a couple of months is a tall order,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas SA.The UAE also announced an additional 100,000 barrels per day of cuts for next month. The curtailments have added to the unprecedented output cuts the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies embarked on May 1 in response to the coronavirus pandemic, which has crushed consumption.Still, WTI is holding up better than Brent as the announcement signals “a let up of Saudi crude oil arriving in the U.S.,” said Tchilinguirian.All the while, demand continues to show signs of a fledgling recovery. Indian consumption will be as much as 25% higher in May after falling to its lowest level since 2007 last month. Traffic jams are returning in China and Europe, as easing lockdown measures boost driving, and people avoid public transport, boosting gasoline demand.“If we start to see more news of people going back to work, more cars on the road, then oil markets are going to take their cue from that and prices are going to move higher on the expectation that demand is actually moving up,” said Stewart Glickman, an analyst for CFRA.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • Retail companies will look to emerge stronger with ‘radically different’ plans: Analyst

    Retail companies will look to emerge stronger with 'radically different' plans: AnalystUnder Armour reported a 23% decline in sales in the first quarter. BMO Managing Director Simeon Siegel weighs in on the company’s earnings report and how retail is faring amid the coronavirus pandemic.

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  • Hedge Fund Billionaire Michael Platt

    In 2015, Michael Platt decided to go it alone and close his hedge fund BlueCrest Capital Management to clients.

    BlueCrest had been one of the biggest hedge funds in Europe, with $37 billion of assets under management.

    However, after a few years of disappointing returns, investors became less enamoured with Platt.

    One issue they focused on was a proprietary BlueCrest fund that only managed Platt’s capital and money belonging to other BlueCrest partners and employees.

    As well as this, institutional investors were pushing for lower fees.

    Hedge funds typically follow a “2 and 20” model: Investors pay an annual management fee of 2 percent of assets under management and 20 percent of profits.

    According to Platt, "It's much more profitable to have 0 and 100 rather than 2 and 20,"

    This refers to the fact that they don't need to share profits with outside investors.

    So in 2015 Platt returned the $7 billion BlueCrest managed for outside clients and decided to turn BlueCrest into a private investment partnership and focus on managing his own wealth and that of his partners and employees.

    This decision has certainly paid off handsomely for Platt and BlueCrest.

    Since 2015 he has more than doubled his net worth – which currently sits at $8 billion.

    In 2019, BlueCrest returned 53.5% net after expenses and Platt made about $2 billion.

    With a much smaller asset base, Platt has increased leverage, took on more risk, and enjoyed strong returns.

    The majority of BlueCrest’s returns did not come from trading equities, which surged last year, but from significant long fixed income positions early in 2019.

    Platt first became involved in the markets through his grandmother.

    "She was a long-term investor and did very well at it. She was a very strong woman. She wasn't interested in baking cake for me; she was interested in what stock I wanted to buy or sell."

    Platt states that he has had a very easy life because he never had to think about what he wanted to do:

    He wanted to be a trader from the age of 12 and started when he was 13, successfully trading stocks through high school and university with one major exception – the infamous Black Monday Crash of 1987, when his stock account lost half its value in a single day.

    Platt has no tolerance for trading losses:

    "I hate losing money more than anything. Losing money is what kills you. It is not the actual loss. It's the fact that it messes up your psychology."

    Platt believes in aggressive stop losses and effectively structures his traders like they are options

    He will cut trader's allocations by half if lose 3% of their capital and remove their capital allocation if they lose more than 6%.

    However, he will also lift allocations to winning trades – therefore the downside is limited, but the upside is unlimited.

    "We want people to scale down if they are getting it wrong and scale up if they are getting it right. If a guy has a $100 million allocation and makes $20 million, he then has $23 million to his stop point."

    But what does Platt looks for in his traders?

    Someone who has an edge:

    "I look for the type of guy in London who gets up at seven o'clock on Sunday morning when his kids are still in bed, and logs onto a poker site so that he can pick off the U.S. drunks coming home on Saturday night. I hired a guy like that. He usually clears 5 or 10 grand every Sunday morning before breakfast taking out the drunks playing poker because they're not very good at it, but their confidence has gone up a lot."

    Paranoia:

    "I want guys who when they put on a good trade immediately start thinking about what they could put on against it. They just have the paranoia."

    The market is always right:

    "Market makers know that the market is always right. They know value is irrelevant in times of market stress; it's all about positions. They understand that markets will trade against positions. They get it."

    Someone who admits they are wrong:

    "Both the ex-market makers who blew up became way too invested in their positions. Their ego got in the way. They just didn't want to be wrong, and they stayed in their positions."

    Recently, it was reported that BlueCrest cut at least 10 portfolio managers as the firm suffered losses in its fixed-income relative value strategy.

    It also cut risk across the firm by about $1 billion.

    Relative-value trades involve trying to profit from small differences in the prices of similar assets, such as two different Treasury bonds or a bond versus a future.

    To boost profitability, portfolio mangers tend to employ substantial leverage.

    Therefore, they rely on the steady availability of financing and a relatively stable relationship between the securities in the portfolio. This means that, when volatility increases sharply, losses can mount very quickly.

    While BlueCrest suffered some losses since the sell-off, they are apparently still up for the year.

    Over the 15 years that BlueCrest managed client money, they produced more than $22 billion in trading profits for investors.

    It's not quite the insane returns of the GOAT hedge fund, Renaissance Technologies' Medallion fund, but nonetheless still pretty good.

    Since becoming a private investment partnership in 2015, the returns have been sensational.

    2016: 50%

    2017: 54%

    2018: 25%

    2019: 53.5%

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCD1egPq170

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    source https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/ghpv6n/hedge_fund_billionaire_michael_platt/

  • General Mills sales soar amid COVID-19 crisis, expects to exceed expectations

    General Mills sales soar amid COVID-19 crisis, expects to exceed expectationsGeneral Mills announced that it expects to exceed its previously provided full-year sales growth expectations. Yahoo Finance’s Heidi Chung breaks down the details.

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  • Skeptical about the Tech Market

    I can’t seem to rationalize why tech stocks are continuing to climb as high as they are. I know their earnings aren’t in the tank like most other sectors, but the P/E ratios for a lot of theses companies is insane. Surely the growth will level off?

    submitted by /u/cswest1
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    source https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/ghphwa/skeptical_about_the_tech_market/

  • The Lack of Rebound in Banks

    I understand people being bullish and I understand people being bearish

    What I’m having a hard time understanding is the overwhelmingly bearish sentiment in banking and the highly bullish sentiment in tech. Several companies on the Nasdaq are at or near ATHs and the Nasdaq is famously up on the year. All the while the banking sector of the S&P is down 38% YTD. And it’s not a wide disbursement between them where the best are recovering. Most banks are still very much beaten down from their 52 week highs. They are widely underperforming the broad S&P by almost 30% year to date.

    So this got me to thinking, how does this scenario play out? The banks put up reserves in 1Q in order to reserve for adverse loan performance expected in 2Q. Based on market reaction, I can only think people believe that actual performance will be worse than expected (since banks like JPM were able to still have positive earnings in 1Q even after shaving off a significant portion for reserves).

    So what scenario exists where defaults absolutely swamp the banks to the degree that they are throwing off significant losses and revenues of all these tech companies is fine? I view the banks as a pretty integral part of the economy’s health. If you have massive loan defaults, how is this not going to impact the entire economy?

    TLDR; Been looking at leaps on banks, someone talk me out of it

    submitted by /u/The_Masked_Contango
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    source https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/ghp3xv/the_lack_of_rebound_in_banks/

  • Wells Fargo: 2 Big 16% Dividend Stocks to Buy (And 1 to Avoid)

    Wells Fargo: 2 Big 16% Dividend Stocks to Buy (And 1 to Avoid)The coronavirus epidemic, and the economic and society lockdowns put in place to combat it, have body-slammed the financial world; the S&P 500 is still down 13% even after a 5 week rally, while oil prices are stuck in a doldrums, with Brent trading at just $30 and WTI at $25. Corporate earnings season has been grim, and some 120 S&P companies have rescinded their 2020 guidance while others have canceled dividend payments or stock buybacks.So, investors are confused; they aren’t seeing the usual signals that indicate what the market may do, and opinions are deeply divided on whether we’ll see a true rally or a long-term bear cycle. Writing from Wells Fargo, head of equity strategy Chris Harvey has come down on the bearish side, but with a caveat. “A near-term equity market pullback should not be unexpected – but we believe selloffs will be much shallower than those in the recent past,” he says, and goes on to add, “There still is substantial uncertainty, and the path forward is not set in stone. Market participants are deciphering shades of gray and for now we are accepting of data that is merely less bad.”Looking at possible ways forward, Harvey expects that the ‘shallower’ selloff will find support from dividend stocks. He’s predicting that the equity market’s current upward trend has pushed the dividend future contract up towards $50. He does not expect dividend stocks to falter in CY20; they are the logical defensive move for investors seeking to remain in the market while protecting their income stream.Harvey’s colleagues at Well Fargo are extrapolating from his general stance, and applying it to individual stocks. In a series of reports, the firm’s stock analysts outlined some low-cost, high-return dividend stocks that investors need to consider – and also one that may be too risky to try. We’ve pulled the details from the TipRanks database, so let’s find out what makes these stock moves so compelling.Energy Transfer LP (ET)We’ll start in the energy sector, where strong dividends are common. The collapse of oil prices – America’s WTI benchmark dipped into negative territory for the first time ever on April 20 – hurt the industry, but there is still some resilience there. Energy is a non-negotiable requirement in modern society, and there is always current demand for hydrocarbon products. Energy Transfer, a midstream company, is well positioned to take advantage of hydrocarbon demand; it controls pipelines, terminals, and storage tanks for both crude oil and natural gas in 38 states. The company operates mainly in the Texas-Oklahoma-Louisiana and Midwest-Appalachian regions.ET finished 2019 with a solid earnings report, beating both the EPS and revenue expectations while growing both metric year-over-year. Heading into Q1, the company had also increased its distributable cash flow by 2%, to $1.55 billion, an excellent signal for dividend investors. The company will report Q1 this evening, and the outlook is for 32 cents EPS, down 15.7% sequentially. At the same time, the revenue forecast is looking at a 6.8% yoy increase to $14.02 billion.The cash flow is likely to be the more important figure, as far as investors are concerned. ET has been keeping up reliable payments for the last eleven years, and the current quarterly dividend, of 30.5 cents, is set for payment on May 19. The current payout ratio is high but still affordable – and even if earnings drop to the expected 32 cents, the company will still be able to cover the dividend payment. And at 16%, the dividend yield is simply stellar – far higher than the 2% average among S&P listed companies.Analyst Michael Blum reviewed this stock for Wells Fargo, and took a clearly bullish position. Blum rates ET shares a Buy, with a $12 price target that suggests an impressive 59% upside potential for the coming year. (To watch Blum’s track record, click here)Supporting his stance on ET, Blum looks to the long-term and writes, “[H]ydrocarbon use will [not] dramatically decrease within the next ten years (and beyond) and thus, [we are] not concerned with obsolescence risk for its pipeline assets. The company would consider renewable investments if they met ET’s return thresholds. However, to date, returns for renewable projects are below that of midstream.”Overall, the analyst consensus on ET is a Moderate Buy, based on 13 recent reviews. The breakdown among those reviews skews positive, with 8 Buys versus 5 Holds. Shares are selling for $7.64, and the average price target of $11.85 implies an upside of 55%. (See ET stock analysis on TipRanks)MPLX LP (MPLX)Staying in the energy industry, we’ll look at MPLX. This company was spun off of Marathon Petroleum in 2012, to handle the oil giant’s midstream operations. Marathon still holds a controlling interest in MPLX, which in turn owns and operates assets in pipelines, terminals, inland river shipping, and refineries. MPLX operates in both the petroleum and natural gas midstream segments.MPLX has a seven-year history of growing its dividend, and the current payment of 68.75 cents per quarter is due out on May 15. Annualized, the dividend comes to $2.75 and gives a yield of 16%. Compared to current interest rates, which have been slashed to the bone in an attempt to counter the economic hit from the coronavirus shutdowns, this yield is a clear attraction for investors.The dividend is supported by a cash-rich business model. MPLX generated $4.1 billion in net cash during calendar year 2019, and returned $2.8 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The company has reduced its capital spending for 2020 to compensate for reduced income during the 1H20 economic downturn. The company a heavy net loss for Q1, of $2.7 billion, but still was able to generate $1 billion net cash.Michael Blum, quoted above, also cast his gaze on MPLX. He wrote, “We entered 2020 with a defensive mindset… We continue to expect near-term volatility as crude storage fills and WTI oil prices likely head lower… the sector is technically oversold, which should create long-term buying opportunities for investors that have the wherewithal to step in… for investors with a bit more risk appetite, [MPLX] appears attractive on a multi-year time horizon…”In line with this stance, Blum gives MPLX a Buy rating. His $24 price target implies a strong upside potential here of 38%.For the most part, Wall Street appears to agree with Blum on MPLX. The stock has received 11 recent reviews, of which 8 are Buys and 3 are Holds, making the analyst consensus rating a Moderate Buy. Shares are currently trading for $17.72, while the average price target of $21.80 suggests a one-year upside potential of 23%. (See MPLX stock analysis on TipRanks)Bain Capital Specialty Finance (BCSF)The world of business development companies (BDCs) has long sparked the interest of investors. These companies invest capital into the business world, earning their own profits on the returns. Bain has $105 billion in assets under management, in real estate, venture capital, and both private and public equity. Current economic conditions have hit Bain hard, as many of the company’s portfolio assets are underperforming due to the coronavirus shutdowns.Despite volatile earnings, Bain is maintaining its dividend. The 41-cent dividend is sustainable at current earnings levels, and has been held steady for the past six quarter – but the payout ratio of 93% indicates that there is not much slack here. The yield, however, is 15.6%, so for investors willing to shoulder the risk, the reward may be substantial.Well Fargo analyst Finian O’Shea sees too much risk here to justify the possible reward. The analyst points out that BCSF has started process to open up a rights offering, putting common stock at a discount. This is a move to raise new capital fast, and shows softness in the stock’s position. O’Shea writes, “…this is the first of what the market speculates as a wave of below-NAV issuance in the BDC industry. We don’t see a big wave noting BCSF was more leveraged, at 1.72x net including revolvers as of 12/31 – so there was not a lot of mark to market leeway.”To this end, O’Shea rates the stock a Sell, predicting it will underperform in the coming year. In line with this, O’Shea cut the price target by nearly half, to $9.50, suggesting an 11% downside from current levels. (To watch O’Shea’s track record, click here)The Wall Street analyst corps, generally, are cautious on this stock. The consensus rating, a Hold, is based on a single Buy along with 2 Holds and 1 Sell. The upside is also modest; the average price target of $10.67 indicates room for just 0.66% growth from the $10.60 share price. (See Bain Capital stock analysis on TipRanks)To find good ideas for dividend stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

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  • AMC Entertainment Surges 56% on Report of Talks With Amazon

    AMC Entertainment Surges 56% on Report of Talks With Amazon(Bloomberg) — AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. jumped as much as 56% on a media report that Amazon.com Inc. has discussed a potential takeover of the largest U.S. movie-theater owner.It’s unclear if the talks are active or will lead to a deal, the U.K.’s Mail on Sunday newspaper said, citing unidentified sources. AMC and Amazon didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment Monday.AMC shares rose as much as $2.31 to $6.41 in premarket trading, and were up 41% to $5.76 at 9:37 a.m. in New York. The stock was down 43% this year through Friday, battered along with the rest of the cinema industry by a worldwide shutdown for the coronavirus pandemic.The reported talks are unlikely to spark a price war for AMC, Bloomberg Intelligence media analyst Amine Bensaid said in a note. “Movie-going is unlikely to fully bounce back in a post-Covid-19 world and may create risks for an acquirer,” he said. “AMC’s elevated debt load and unavoidable fixed costs means the company’s near-term financial flexibility will be severely challenged.”AMC showed its concern about existential threats with its reaction to last month’s straight-to-streaming release of the kids movie “Trolls World Tour,” which Comcast Corp.’s Universal Pictures crowed about as a high-grossing success. AMC said it would no longer show Universal’s movies.Along with its vast retail and web-services operations, Amazon is an active player in streaming with its Prime Video platform, along with releasing original films. Like Netflix Inc., Amazon is eager to shore up its burgeoning position in Hollywood as new and old players scrap for content deals. Buying a theater chain would guarantee another outlet for its movies.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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