• Dell Plots $50 BIllion More of Financial Finessing

    Dell Plots $50 BIllion More of Financial Finessing(Bloomberg Opinion) — Dell Technologies Inc.’s magical merry-go-round of financial engineering is spinning once again.The corporate computing giant is examining options for its majority stake in software-company VMware Inc. that include a spinoff of the holdings, the Wall Street Journal reported late Tuesday. VMware shares soared roughly 10% on the news in after-market trading, valuing Dell’s 81% stake at around $55 billion. To understand why Dell would contemplate a transaction like this, you only have to look at Dell’s own market value, which despite a rise of its own on the news of the possible spinoff amounted to only about $40 billion. Put another way, Dell isn’t getting full value for either its ownership of VMware or its own computing and data-storage business that took in around $80 billion of revenue in the most recent fiscal year. And it wants to remedy that. But for all of shareholders’ early enthusiasm, a spinoff of the VMware stake would appear to be just a superficial fix for the complexity that’s long weighed on the value of Dell’s various businesses. Dell acquired its stake in VMware through the $67 billion buyout of EMC Corp. in 2016. As part of that transaction, the company created a tracking stock that was meant to mirror the value of VMware, which remained independent and publicly traded. It didn’t work very well. The tracking stock lagged substantially behind the price of VMware shares. Meanwhile, Dell’s massive debt load and complicated capital structure made a traditional IPO process difficult when founder Michael Dell and private-equity firm Silver Lake wanted to try to reintroduce the company to the public markets following a 2013 buyout. So in 2018, Dell decided to simplify things by buying out the tracking stock. A protracted battle ensued with shareholders of the tracking stock — including P. Schoenfeld Asset Management and Carl Icahn — who felt they were being low-balled, but eventually a deal got done. In hindsight, owners of the tracking stock were right to push for more cash and a complicated equity-collar mechanism, seeing as the Class C stock that made up the remainder of the takeover bid hasn’t fared as well on the public market as Dell might have hoped. Which brings us back to the present. If you kept up through that long, winding tale of financial engineering, you might be wondering why Dell went through the process of unraveling the VMware tracking stock if it was just going to recreate the general idea several years later, as this latest spinoff plan would seem to suggest. The exact structure of a spinoff of the VMware stake is unclear and the Journal reports that talks are at a very early stage and may not go anywhere. Potentially, a spinoff would confer more direct ownership of the VMware business to shareholders than the tracking stock previously did, helping to simplify the valuation process. But it’s hard not to shake the feeling that we’ve been here before.An alternative option that Dell is considering is a buyout of the VMware shares it doesn’t already own, the Journal reported. But that would add to its still mammoth debt load and doesn’t really do much on its own to address the fact that Dell shareholders aren’t inclined to give the company credit for the VMware stake it already holds. Ultimately, a buyout of the rest of VMware, followed by a spinoff of the whole thing, makes the most sense but would take a long time and is easier said than done. Recall that Dell initially tried to bring VMware further into the fold as part of the negotiations that ultimately led to the tracking stock deal, but both management and shareholders of the target company balked.Is this latest finessing going to make Dell a better-run company? Doubtful. Is it going to boost the company’s stock price over the long run? Maybe. But if after years and years of financial engineering, you’re still not seeing the kind of equity valuation you want, perhaps its the financial engineering that’s the problem.This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Brooke Sutherland is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering deals and industrial companies. She previously wrote an M&A column for Bloomberg News.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • Why this fund manager believes PolyNovo shares are undervalued

    Man in white business shirt touches screen with happy smile symbol

    The PolyNovo Ltd (ASX: PNV) share price may have jumped 56% over the last 12 months, but one fund manager believes it can still go higher.

    Who is bullish on PolyNovo?

    According to a recent update by the DNR Capital Australian Emerging Companies Fund, it has recently initiated a position in PolyNovo.

    PolyNovo is the medical device company behind the NovoSorb technology, which was developed by CSIRO following the Bali bombings.

    NovoSorb is a biodegradable material that can be used to aid the repair of bone fractures and damaged cartilage, and in skin grafts.

    The key product in its portfolio is the NovoSorb Biodegradable Temporising Matrix (BTM) product. NovoSorb BTM is a wound dressing intended for treatment of full-thickness wounds and burns where the dermal structure has been lost to trauma, or damaged requiring surgical removal.

    Why is PolyNovo undervalued?

    DNR Capital believes that PolyNovo is undervalued based on its future cash flows.

    It commented: “We believe Polynovo shares are undervalued based on our assessment of long-term cash flows. The company has a leading product that is in the early phase of its penetration into a large addressable market of $1.5b.”

    It’s worth noting that DNR Capital isn’t including other markets that the company has its eyes on. Adding these into the equation would increase its addressable market opportunity to an estimated $7.5 billion per year according to management.

    DNR Capital explained: “We don’t ascribe value to the hernia and breast opportunities given the limited visibility on cash flows, as these products need to pass certain milestones before they become commercial.”

    In addition to this, the fund manager notes that PolyNovo’s earnings growth potential is very strong and its outlook is increasingly positive.

    “With the business now at a cash-flow break even run-rate, we expect significant earnings growth as it penetrates a large addressable market estimated at $1.5b. The business generates attractive gross margins of 90%, which will lead to high returns on invested capital.”

    “The company continues to reinvest into research and development with a number of new products to be launched targeting the hernia and breast market, with the combined opportunity valued at $6b,” it added.

    Should you invest?

    I think DNR Capital makes some great points and PolyNovo could be well worth considering with a long term view. Though, given the premium that its shares trade at, you might want to consider limiting an investment to just a small part of your portfolio.

    And here are more exciting shares which could be stars of the future…

    5 ASX stocks under $5

    One trick to potentially generating life-changing wealth from the stock market is to buy early-stage growth companies when their share prices still look dirt cheap.

    Motley Fool’s resident tech stock expert Dr. Anirban Mahanti has identified 5 stocks he thinks are screaming buys. And you can buy them now for less than $5 a share!

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why I think the Telstra share price could hit $4 in 2020

    Man with mobile phone standing over modem, telecommunications, telco. Telstra share price, TPG share price, vocus share price

    I believe the Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS) share price could hit $4 in 2020.

    Let’s be clear, this isn’t an earth-moving price target. Telstra shares have been at $4 before, most recently in August last year. Before then, the ASX telco giant actually spent between 2012 and 2017 above $4 per share, even hitting $6.50 at one point in 2015. We were getting close to $4 in January this year (Telstra touched $3.90), but then the coronavirus pandemic hit and Telstra has been stuck in a rut at around $3.20 ever since. Right now, one Telstra share will set you back just $3.17.

    So why do I think Telstra shares can make it back to $4 and potentially beyond in 2020?

    There are two reasons:

    Telstra shares and dividends

    The first is Telstra’s dividend. This company has quite an infamous history when it comes to dividend payments. Some shareholders might still not have forgiven Telstra for slashing its dividend back in 2017 from 31 cents per share (annually) to 16 cents today. It’s my view, this was partly behind Telstra’s massive re-valuation between 2015 and 2018.

    But Telstra has managed to keep it’s dividend steady at 16 cents per share for close to two years now, and I don’t believe there is any danger this will be cut down any further. For one, the dividend is comfortably covered by Telstra’s free cash flow. And two, the company is close to putting the damage done to its earnings by the NBN behind it.

    So what’s so good about Telstra’s dividend then? Well, at 16 cents per share (which includes 6 cents in ‘special’ NBN dividends), Telstra is offering a 5.05% dividend yield. If you include the full franking that Telstra shares also come with, this grosses-up to 7.21%. That’s not a bad yield in a zero interest rate environment.

    What about 5G?

    The second reason I believe Telstra shares could reach $4 this year is the rollout of the new 5G mobile technology. 5G is the next generation of mobile network and promises unprecedented speeds, low latency and increased applications. We don’t know for sure just how many benefits 5G will bring to the table, but if the rollout of 4G a few years ago is anything to go by, it looks likely to be good news for all ASX telco companies. And Telstra looks set to be in prime position for this shift. It is investing more into 5G than its competitors, from what I can see, which could see better speeds and range for Telstra’s 5G network compared with anything Optus or TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPM) delivers.

    Foolish takeaway

    All in all, I think Telstra’s healthy dividend policy, as well as its investment in 5G technology, could well see the Telstra share price hit $4 again in 2020. As such, Telstra is a share that I’m very happy to own, and I don’t anticipate this changing anytime soon.

    For some more ASX shares you might want to check out today, take a look at the report below!

    3 “Double Down” stocks to ride the bull market higher

    Motley Fool resident tech stock expert Dr. Anirban Mahanti has identified three stocks he thinks can ride the bull market even higher, potentially supercharging your wealth in 2020 and beyond.

    Doc Mahanti likes them so much he has issued “double down” buy alerts on all three stocks to members of his Motley Fool Extreme Opportunities stock picking service.

    *Extreme Opportunities returns as of June 5th 2020

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen owns shares of Telstra Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Telstra Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Coronavirus second wave potential could drive investment portfolio changes

    hand holding red briefcase stuffed with cash, investment portfolio

    Over the past few days, it’s dawned on me that the situation regarding coronavirus is unlikely to change anytime soon. Like many others, I thought that by now we would find ourselves opening up our own borders. Then opening up to New Zealand, and then slowly to the rest of the world.

    However, the recent surge of coronavirus infections in Victoria has forced us to temper our expectations on how quickly we can open up the economy and our borders. If we’re going to continue managing this pandemic successfully, then potentially we may need to be taking two steps forward and one step back for some time.

    While none of us can do anything about this, we can definitely shape our investment portfolios to reflect our circumstances. So on that note, here are some of my thoughts.

    Sectors to consider for your investment portfolio

    Local travel

    I believe that Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ) is likely to be the only airline to deliver anywhere near decent earnings over the short term. This company recently forecast a year-end profit before tax of $40 million. The core business of Alliance Airlines is providing charter flights and servicing fly-in fly-out workers. Demand for these services increased during lockdown restrictions as travellers were forced to comply with social distancing requirements.  

    Alliance Airlines’ recent award of flights to the Whitsundays by the Queensland Government further reinforces my optimism surrounding this Aussie airline. Alliance is structured as a nimble organisation with a low cost base. If we do have to live only with domestic tourism for a while, I believe the company will prosper. Conversely, an organisation like Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) is just too big to survive on local flights alone.

    Another potential beneficiary of an increased concentration of local travel could be Bapcor Ltd (ASX: BAP), a distributor of car parts and services. If, for the time being, most travel will be local, it stands to reason much of it will be by car. This definitely appears to be increasing demand for Bapcor’s automotive parts, accessories, equipment, and services. Back in March, when the lockdown commenced, Bapcor still managed to deliver an 11.5% growth in revenue against the previous corresponding period.

    Discretionary items

    I think ongoing work-from-home requirements will mean continued solid sales volumes for retailers like Bunnings and Officeworks; businesses owned by Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES). Wesfarmers also owns Catch, an online marketplace it recently purchased. Catch has increased its sales turnover by 68.7% in H2 FY20 so far against the previous corresponding period. This is in line with other online sales businesses like Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN).

    Another interesting internet sales story has been City Chic Collective Ltd (ASX: CCX). On 25 May, the company declared that two-thirds of its sales came from online channels. Moreover, it announced a 57% increase in online sales during the company’s store closures versus the same period last year.

    Payment processing

    Depending on your investment horizon, it may still be too soon to invest in shares like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA). In fact, I would be cautious of any shares with exposure to the long-term credit commitments of the general public. With higher unemployment and uncertain economic conditions, I believe fewer people will be seeking long-term credit arrangements.

    In addition, as the nation’s largest bank, CommBank is also potentially facing the biggest impact of defaults on housing and business loans. Moreover, there is an underlying trend away from credit cards, particularly among millennials. 

    Nonetheless, I think short term credit organisations like Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) and Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P) are likely to continue to do well. Particularly those that are light on credit checks. 

    Payment processing companies like Tyro Payments Ltd (ASX: TYR) are also destined to continue performing well, in my opinion. Tyro has a network across many small and medium enterprise companies, many of which have already re-opened. Furthermore, the company has increased YTD earnings by 16% against last year during April and May, despite lockdowns restrictions.

    In just a few years, Tyro has catapulted itself to be the largest EFTPOS provider of all authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADI) outside of the big four banks.

    Foolish takeaway

    The resurgence of coronavirus cases in Victoria this week suggests the recovery is not going to play out the way we might have hoped. Nonetheless, the market continually provides us with opportunities.

    I recommend pivoting an investment portfolio towards companies with strong online sales capabilities, or those which have thrived during the lockdown. In addition, look for companies that do not require a full re-opening of the Australian or international economies in order to thrive, such as the buy now, pay later providers.

    If you’re after more opportunities in the current market, make sure to check out our free report.

    3 “Double Down” stocks to ride the bull market higher

    Motley Fool resident tech stock expert Dr. Anirban Mahanti has identified three stocks he thinks can ride the bull market even higher, potentially supercharging your wealth in 2020 and beyond.

    Doc Mahanti likes them so much he has issued “double down” buy alerts on all three stocks to members of his Motley Fool Extreme Opportunities stock picking service.

    *Extreme Opportunities returns as of June 5th 2020

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    Daryl Mather has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Tyro Payments and ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Bapcor. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Leading broker tips the Coles share price to storm higher from here

    Coles share price

    On Tuesday the Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) share price climbed 0.5% higher to $16.67.

    This latest gain means the supermarket giant’s shares have now risen a sizeable 11% since the start of the year.

    This means Coles’ shares are vastly outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which is down 11% over the same period.

    Is it too late to buy Coles’ shares?

    I don’t believe it is too late to invest in Coles. Although its shares have been strong performers this year, I believe they are still good value. Especially in comparison to its arch rival Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW).

    At present, I estimate that the Coles share price is trading at a little over 21x FY 2021 earnings, whereas Woolies is trading closer to 26x FY 2021 earnings.

    Another reason to be positive on Coles is its dividend. I expect Coles to provide investors with a fully franked 3.9% dividend yield next year. For Woolworths, I’m expecting a fully franked 2.9% dividend yield in FY 2021.

    I’m not the only one that is positive on Coles. After looking through recent updates by Woolworths and Metcash Limited (ASX: MTS), this morning analysts at Goldman Sachs reiterated their conviction buy rating and $18.60 price target on its shares.

    This price target implies potential upside of 11.6% for its shares over the next 12 months or 15.5% including dividends.

    What did Goldman Sachs say?

    Goldman appears confident that Coles will finish FY 2020 strongly and has revised its sales forecasts higher. And while it does have concerns over margin pressures, it feels Coles is better positioned to limit the damage.

    The broker commented: “While the sales trends remain strong across the industry, margins have underwhelmed but the outlook for margins over the remainder of CY20 look supportive. We revise 4Q20 LFL growth for the Food division to +8.5% and for the Liquor division to +8%, reflecting the stronger than expected industry growth trends.”

    “Over 2H20, we anticipate COL’s cost out program and earlier timing of EBA implementation will limit the downside to margins compared to that anticipated by WOW’s update. We have revised 2H20 Food EBIT margins from 4.2% to 4.0% (+10bps on pcp). Overall, FY20 Food EBIT has been reduced by -1.6% and Group EBIT by -1.5%. We revise pre-AASB16 FY20 EPS to A$0.71, -1.5%,” it concluded.

    And here are more top shares which analysts have just given buy ratings to…

    3 “Double Down” Stocks To Ride The Bull Market

    Motley Fool resident tech stock expert Dr. Anirban Mahanti has stumbled upon three under-the-radar stock picks he believes could be some of the greatest discoveries of his investing career.

    He’s so confident in their future prospects that he has issued “double down” buy alerts on each of these three stocks to members of his Motley Fool Extreme Opportunities stock picking service.

    *Extreme Opportunities returns as of June 5th 2020

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of COLESGROUP DEF SET and Woolworths Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Stock market news live updates: Stock futures open little changed, pausing after rally

    Stock market news live updates: Stock futures open little changed, pausing after rallyStock futures opened slightly lower Tuesday evening after another tech-led rally during the regular session.

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  • Best growth shares to buy with $4,000

    blackboard drawing of hand pointing to the words buy now

    Volatility is a funny word. When we hear it we don’t think of our portfolio dropping by, say, 40%. Yet if you can withstand swings like this then there are some great investment opportunities available to you. I believe these are the best shares to buy for growth in today’s market.

    Although $4,000 sounds like a lot when you are starting out, it is about the limit that I would dedicate to higher-risk activities like investing in growth shares. I would invest $4,000 evenly among the 5 shares below. 

    The roaring fintechs

    Australia has a fantastic fintech economy. In fact, Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) and Xero Limited (ASX: XRO) are 2 world-class fintechs. Within this sector, I think the following 2 companies are the best shares to buy.

    Sezzle Inc (ASX: SZL) is a great share with a fantastic sales track record. In addition, this buy now pay later company has a great strategy to target millenials and Gen Z, customers.  It is also a native of the USA, the world’s largest potential buy now pay later retail market at US$5 trillion. I would place $1,000 into Sezzle.

    Pushpay Holdings Ltd (ASX: PPH) runs donor management systems for faith-based, non-profit and education organisations. They are already across Australia, Canada and the USA. As with Sezzle, if you are going to build donor management systems for faith-based communities, then the US is the market to be in. I would invest $1,000 in Pushpay.

    Best shares to buy in tech

    If you are investing purely for growth then these 2 shares are ones I would look at very seriously.

    Electro Optic Systems Hldg Ltd (ASX: EOS) is a technology company based in the defence and space industries. It is quite an amazing company and I had no idea that we had anything like this. Its primary focus is in sensor technology. It’s developing the technology to help with over 500,000 pieces of space debris travelling at around 30,000 km per hour. The company also develops weapons systems. 

    Altium Limited (ASX: ALU) is the PCB design software manufacturer that is domiciled in the USA. It is a proven market player and has been able to grow sales, on average, around 16% every single year for the past 10 years. I believe that it is still growing into the market space and the share price is likely to continue to see decent growth.

    If you are interested in more shares likely to see explosive growth then download our free report below.

    3 “Double Down” Stocks To Ride The Bull Market

    Motley Fool resident tech stock expert Dr. Anirban Mahanti has stumbled upon three under-the-radar stock picks he believes could be some of the greatest discoveries of his investing career.

    He’s so confident in their future prospects that he has issued “double down” buy alerts on each of these three stocks to members of his Motley Fool Extreme Opportunities stock picking service.

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    Daryl Mather owns shares of Electro Optic Systems Holdings Limited and Sezzle Inc. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Altium, Electro Optic Systems Holdings Limited, and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended PUSHPAY FPO NZX. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Electro Optic Systems Holdings Limited and Sezzle Inc. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why the Cromwell share price soared higher yesterday

    view looking up to tall office building

    Trading in Cromwell Property Group (ASX: CMW) was temporarily paused Tuesday morning pending an announcement. The announcement, released at 10:06 am, related to an off-market proportional takeover bid from ARA Asset Management Limited (ARA). By close of trade Tuesday, the Cromwell share price had jumped 8.05% to 94 cents.

    Why did the Cromwell share price jump?

    Cromwell shares rallied following news that ARA intends to acquire 29% of all Cromwell stapled securities in which it does not already hold an interest. If successful, this would take ARA’s stake in Cromwell to 52.6%. The offer price of 90 cents per share was slightly higher than Monday’s closing price of 87 cents. According to Cromwell, ARA proposed it would execute the partial takeover by acquiring 29 out of every 100 Cromwell shares it doesn’t already own. 

    Cromwell Property Group announced the following in relation to the proportional takeover offer:

    “Cromwell securityholders are advised to take no action in relation to the proportional offer. Cromwell notes the unsolicited and opportunistic nature of the proportional offer and that the proportional offer is not an offer to acquire all securities held by securityholders in Cromwell. Cromwell will provide a further announcement in due course when it has evaluated and assessed the terms of the proportional offer.”

    The announcement went on to state “In the interim, Cromwell will continue to operate and execute its business strategy in the ordinary course as previously flagged to the market on 4 June 2020”.

    What did ARA say?

    In its letter to Cromwell, ARA boasted that “the offer price is a premium to Cromwell’s recent trading prices despite ongoing market volatility”. The offer represented a 9.8% premium to the company’s 30-day volume weighted average price of 82 cents.

    ARA already has an existing interest in Cromwell securities of 24%. The asset manager wrote “Given Cromwell’s elevated gearing levels in conjunction with the uncertainty surrounding rental collections and asset values as a result of COVID-19, ARA is concerned that Cromwell will seek to undertake a material equity raising at a discount to the offer price”.

    It also suggested that the likelihood of a competing offer was reduced due to ARA’s existing 24% stake in Cromwell.

    What’s next for the Cromwell share price?

    The Cromwell share price is up 38.2% from its 52-week low of 68 cents. It’s also down 25% since this time last year and nearly 30% below its 52-week high of $1.35 reached in November 2019. 

    The proportional takeover bid could play out in a number of ways. Overall, however, it should be positive for shareholders. At the current bid, it seems unlikely that shareholders will accept given the Cromwell share price is now already above 90 cents. However, a new higher bid may be accepted by shareholders enabling ARA to take its holding to above 50%. 

    If ARA is successful in obtaining a holding greater than 50%, it will have the ability to appoint board members. This would then enable the asset manager to execute its own strategies for Cromwell Property. As suggested yesterday, this would likely include blocking any potential capital raisings. 

    Previously on 2 March, Cromwell released an announcement suggesting that ARA was attempting a ‘takeover by stealth’. Cromwell’s management also clashed with the asset manager over its attempt to elect an appointed nominee to the board three months after his appointment had been struck down at the AGM. At this time Cromwell also stated that shareholders should take no action in response to approaches by ARA.

    Stay tuned…

    Want to discover how you can build wealth with ASX shares? Click the link below.

    3 “Double Down” Stocks To Ride The Bull Market

    Motley Fool resident tech stock expert Dr. Anirban Mahanti has stumbled upon three under-the-radar stock picks he believes could be some of the greatest discoveries of his investing career.

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    *Extreme Opportunities returns as of June 5th 2020

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    Motley Fool contributor Chris Chitty has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Why one top fund manager sees meaningful upside for the Betmakers Technology share price

    3 men at bar betting on sports online 16.9

    If you’re interested in small cap shares, then you might want to take a look at the one talked about below.

    It is a firm favourite of the Ellerston Australian Micro Cap Fund and it certainly can pay to listen to what this fund manager says.

    Over the last 12 months the fund has provided investors with a 15.3% return after fees, which compares to a 2.9% decline by the benchmark S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index.

    This outperformance doesn’t appear to be a fluke either, with the fund returning an average of 16.5% per annum over the last three years. As a comparison, the benchmark index has provided a 7.5% per annum return over the same period.

    Which shares does the Ellerston Australian Micro Cap Fund like?

    In a recent update, portfolio managers David Keelan and Alexandra Clarke revealed that its portfolio remains skewed towards high-quality shares which they believe can endure a challenging macro environment.

    This includes the technology sector and particularly companies with sustainable competitive advantages and structural tailwinds.

    One of those is wagering service business Betmakers Technology Group Ltd (ASX: BET). It uses its proprietary technology to provide risk management systems, odds management, and content across a number of sports.

    The portfolio managers commented: “The company boasts an exclusive 10- year agreement to manage fixed odds horse racing in New Jersey, and this was recently expanded to include a 5-year agreement to manage fixed odds terminals and kiosks at Monmouth Park racetrack.”

    And although the Betmakers share price is up over 200% in 2020, the fund managers still see meaningful upside in the future.

    “Fixed odds racing should benefit from a structural migration away from tote betting, a similar narrative to that which has already played out in Australia, and BET is well placed to capitalise on this. The company is on the verge of EBITDA profitability, has an extensive pipeline of opportunities, and we see meaningful upside to the current price,” they concluded.

    And here are more exciting shares which could be stars of the future…

    5 stocks under $5

    We hear it over and over from investors, “I wish I had bought Altium or Afterpay when they were first recommended by The Motley Fool. I’d be sitting on a gold mine!” And it’s true.

    And while Altium and Afterpay have had a good run, we think these 5 other stocks are screaming buys. And you can buy them now for less than $5 a share!

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Is the Macquarie share price a buy?

    macquarie share price

    Is the Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) share price a buy?

    Macquarie shares have been on a rollercoaster since the COVID-19 share market selloff began. Between 21 February 2020 and 23 March 2020, the global investment bank’s share price dropped 52.5%. But since that low on 23 March 2020 it has risen 68.8%.

    Despite that strong recovery the Macquarie share price is still down 20% from the pre-coronavirus high.

    What’s going on for Macquarie?

    As a global investment bank, Macquarie is obviously quite dependent on a decent global economy to maintain good performance.

    In its FY20 result Macquarie was impacted by higher credit charges and impairments relating to the potential economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. In the second half of FY20 it recognised credit and impairment charges of $901 million, up from $139 million in the first half of FY20 and up from $476 million in the second half of FY19.

    The COVID-19 provisions were a large reason why the second half profit of FY20 came in at $1.275 billion, down 13% from the first half of FY20 and down 24% on the second half of FY19.

    However, Macquarie remains in a strong financial position. At 31 March 2020 it had record surplus capital of $7.1 billion, up from $6.1 billion at 31 March 2019. Its common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio was 12.2% at 31 March 2020, up from 11.4% at 31 March 2019.

    Macquarie deliberately strengthened the balance sheet during FY2020. It raised $1.7 billion in a capital raising from institutional investors and retail investors. It also increased its proportion of term funding and deposits. Total customer deposits increased 20% to $67.1 billion at 31 March 2020.

    Macquarie outlook?

    I think that Macquarie still has a very promising future. Each Macquarie has a different outlook in the current circumstances. Combined, the results of the below four divisions will impact where the Macquarie share price will go. 

    Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) is one of the biggest infrastructure asset managers in the world. Thankfully, base management fees are expected to be ‘broadly’ in line with last year. However, MAM’s other operating income is expected to be significantly down due to expected delays in the timing of asset sales.

    Macquarie’s banking and financial services is expecting to keep growing deposit and loan volumes, but there is a lot of competition in the sector which could hurt margins.

    The commodities and global markets (CGM) division is anticipating lower customer activity, particularly in commodities – however volatility could create opportunities. The product and client sector diversity is expected to provide some support through the uncertain economic conditions in the first half of FY21.

    Macquarie Capital expects the challenging market conditions to reduce the number of successful transactions and increase the time to completion. Investment-related income is expected to be lower from lower asset realisations, but it should benefit with the market recovery.

    Time to buy Macquarie shares at this price?

    It’s very difficult to estimate what FY21 will be like for Macquarie. It’s hard to say where the Macquarie share price will go in the short-term. There is so much uncertainty for the global economy. Macquarie earns around two thirds of its profit overseas, which is where most of the COVID-19 damage is currently taking place.

    Macquarie itself wasn’t able to provide FY21 profit guidance.

    I think Macquarie is one of the best blue chips on the ASX. It ended up cutting its final FY20 dividend, partially due to APRA guidance, but I believe it will be a solid dividend share for the long-term.

    Macquarie has high-quality management and a long-term focus. I like that the business can allocate money to any part of the business across the world where the growth potential might be. I’d prefer to invest in Macquarie compared to an ASX bank like Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC). I do think it’s a long-term opportunity, but there may also be more volatility later this year, particularly around the US election. There are plenty of ASX shares I’d rather buy over Macquarie at this share price. 

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    Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

    The post Is the Macquarie share price a buy? appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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