There is a range of Australian share market trends that I think will continue across this week. Some have been building for a few weeks while others only started recently. 

Real estate trading

Real estate trading will likely continue to be very heavy this week. Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REIT) have been among the heaviest-traded shares on the Australian share market over the past 3 weeks. The trading has benefitted companies like office investor DEXUS Property Group (ASX: DXS). However, it has been a little undecided over retail-exposed REITs.

Of all the major real estate companies, it is Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) and Vicinity Centres (ASX: VCX) that have seen their share prices drop marginally. I think this is likely to continue this week. Despite the HomeBuilder package, I think the reality surrounding the housing market is likely to sink in, possibly impacting GPT Group (ASX: GPT), in particular.

Discretionary retail shares

The release of the ABS Retail Trade survey appeared to catch the market off-guard. The survey announced a rise in retail turnover of 16.3% in May 2020. The largest rise in the survey’s 38-year history. This provided a lift to the Australian share market when the survey was released during Friday’s trading. I believe this lift will continue through this week.

It included larger companies like Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (ASX: HVN) and JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX: JBH). However, it is also likely to focus attention on small caps like Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV) and Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1).

Construction and building

The government’s infrastructure spending package is going to be a slow-burning trend in the Australian share market over the next few weeks. However, I expect investors to be taking positions during this week. The federal government announced fast-track approval processes for 15 major projects as well as an additional $1.5 billion in infrastructure funding. This is aside from any spending currently underway within each state. 

Many engineering companies are likely to benefit from this. Yet I think that Boral Limited (ASX: BLD) is going to benefit no matter what. Boral is the largest supplier of construction materials throughout Australia. It also has an international presence in the US and other countries. As such, it is likely to benefit from stimulus spending in many regions.

More reading

• Infrastructure shares boosted by government spending
• Is there a better buy than JB Hi-Fi shares today?
• James Hardie share price in spotlight as it upgrades profit guidance
• ASX share price winners and losers of last week
• ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: ASX back in the green

Motley Fool contributor Daryl Mather has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Wesfarmers Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group and Scentre Group. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Challenger Ltd (ASX: CGF) share price won’t be going anywhere on Monday after the annuities company requested a trading halt.

Why is the Challenger share price in a trading halt?

Challenger requested a trading halt this morning while it launches an equity raising which aims to further strengthen its capital position and provide flexibility to enhance earnings.

Challenger’s equity raising comprises a fully underwritten institutional placement of $270 million and a non-underwritten share purchase plan aiming to raise up to $30 million.

These funds will be raised at $4.89 per new share, which represents an 8.1% discount to the last close price of $5.32.

Management notes that the equity raising will further strengthen Challenger Life’s capital position during this period of ongoing market uncertainty. This will be achieved by initially increasing its regulatory capital position to 1.78 times APRA’s prescribed capital amount and its common equity tier 1 ratio to 1.17 times the prescribed capital amount.

How will Challenger deploy these funds?

Challenger intends to prudently and progressively deploy the capital raised. This will be primarily used in investment grade fixed income opportunities that are expected to be return on equity (ROE) accretive for shareholders.

Once fully deployed, Challenger’s defensive portfolio mix will be maintained, and the Life business’ prescribed capital amount ratio is expected to return to around the top end of its target range of 1.3 times to 1.6 times on a pro forma basis.

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Richard Howes, commented: “Challenger is in a strong capital position with the raising further strengthening CLC’s balance sheet, and providing the opportunity to seek out compelling ROE accretive investment opportunities over time.”

“In response to the impact of ongoing market volatility, we have reduced capital intensity and maintained a strong capital position by repositioning the portfolio to more defensive settings. This has increased the cash and liquids we have on CLC’s balance sheet to over $3 billion,” he added.

One positive from the market volatility is that Challenger is seeing a lot of opportunities for it to deploy capital.

Mr Howes explained: “Following the pandemic market sell-off, fixed income asset risk premiums have widened significantly and we are now seeing opportunities, primarily in investment grade, to selectively invest this cash and liquids balance and generate pre-tax ROEs in excess of 20% on the capital backing these investments.”

“This is well above our pre-tax ROE target of the RBA cash rate plus a margin of 14%. Importantly, we can capture these opportunities, while maintaining our current defensive portfolio settings, with a high weighting to investment grade fixed income,” he concluded.

More reading

• 3 long-term ASX 200 shares I’d buy right now
• What are the best ASX shares for dividends?
• ASX 200 jumps almost 4%, Webjet share price soars
• 2 unloved ASX shares that could stage a big turnaround
• Should I keep my stake at the current Monadelphous share price?

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Challenger Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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In morning trade the Altium Limited (ASX: ALU) share price has come under pressure after the release of a trading update.

At the time of writing the electronic design software company’s shares are down 7% to $33.70.

What did Altium announce?

In May, Altium released an update and warned that its performance in the fourth quarter of FY 2020 was being impacted by the pandemic.

It was optimistic that the launch of attractive pricing and extended payment terms would drive volume in challenging market conditions.

However, while these initiatives are driving strong seat growth, management advised that the increase in revenue for FY 2020 will be short of consensus estimates.

This is the result of new lockdowns in China and an increase in COVID-19 cases in parts of the US, which are having an impact on Altium’s final sprint to the close of the financial year.

Management notes that historically, the company closes a significant amount of its second half business in the last two weeks of June. But this year, sales run rates in June are falling short of what would be required to achieve the market’s expectations.

Altium CEO, Aram Mirkazemi, commented: “Our strategy to support our customers and to increase volume under COVID-19 conditions through attractive pricing and extended payment terms is driving strong seat growth and will get us close to or just surpass our key target of 50,000 subscribers.”

“However, we are feeling the revenue impact of this strategy. While we are likely to deliver solid revenue growth, this will land marginally behind latest analyst consensus for the full year,” he added.

Commenting on the pricing and payments strategy, Mr Mirkazemi believes Altium has made the right move.

He explained: “We see Altium’s approach to COVID-19 pricing and extended payment terms as the right thing to do to support our customers in this challenging environment and to not lose momentum as we enter the next phase of growth.”

But these initiatives won’t be around for much longer, with the company increasing its prices again from 1 July. An Altium Designer one-year subscription will be $9,945 in July, compared to $7,185 at present. It will also remove the extended payment terms from 1 September 2020.

More reading

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• I would buy and hold Kogan and these ASX shares until 2030
• Why I think Xero shares are a great long-term buy
• This is why the Altium share price could be a buy right now
• How to become wealthy by investing $1,000 into ASX shares

James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Altium. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) share price hit an all-time record high of $20.05 last Thursday. Rather than pushing higher, its shares fell 4.23% on Friday. Could this be an opportunity to buy a2 Milk shares at a discount? 

What caused the sell off of a2 Milk shares? 

On Friday, the a2 Milk share price fell on no news, despite the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) closing up 0.10%.

The slump could be attributed to the a2 Milk share price rising 10% during the week, with shares hitting $20 for the first time and the company reaching a record $14 billion market capitalisation. Rather than pushing higher, investors might have taken this opportunity to sell shares to lock in profits. 

Is the a2 Milk share price a buy?

It is a fragile time to be buying shares, given how much the market has run up. Not only is the US and South America struggling to contain the coronavirus, but there are increasing fears of a second wave across Europe, China and Australia. Quantitative easing and record money supply across the world has created a serious discrepancy between the real economy and the markets. It is difficult to tell if the markets will continue pushing, or if a correction is imminent.

Despite the inherent risks in the broader economy and markets, I believe the a2 Milk share price is fair value at today’s prices. The company has a strong track record of consistent growth and the coronavirus may incite further tailwinds for its revenues moving forward. 

a2 Milk provided the market with a trading update and FY20 outlook on 22 April. The update highlighted that the business has continued to experience strong revenue growth across all key regions, particularly in its infant nutrition products sold in China and Australia. a2 Milk’s 3Q20 revenue was above expectations – the company attributed this result primarily to changes in consumer purchase behaviour and impulsive pantry stocking. 

The company’s 2H20 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation margin is also anticipated to be higher than previously expected. Expanding margins have been driven by higher revenue from higher margin nutritional products, partly due to consumer pantry stocking in 3Q20, favourable foreign exchange rate movement, and lower than expected costs for travel. 

The overall performance for FY20 should see ongoing revenue growth across its key regions supported by its significant investment in marketing for China and US. Notwithstanding the uncertainty, it anticipates revenue for FY20 in the range of $1,700 million to $1,750 million. This would represent a 30.4% to 34.2% increase on FY19 revenue. 

Foolish takeaway

If the broader market is sold off, then the a2 Milk share price will get dragged down along with it. While I wouldn’t be in a hurry to buy a2 shares, I believe the company is fundamentally in a good place and continued earnings momentum should be expected. 

More reading

• Is there a better buy than JB Hi-Fi shares today?
• The NAB share price has fallen 24%. Should you buy?
• Where to invest $10,000 into ASX shares right now
• James Hardie share price in spotlight as it upgrades profit guidance
• My ASX share for the week

Motley Fool contributor Lina Lim has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of A2 Milk. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The National Australia Bank Ltd. (ASX: NAB) share price has fallen 24.2% lower in 2020 but is the ASX bank share in the buy zone?

Why the NAB share price has slumped 24.2%

ASX bank shares were under real pressure during the February/March bear market. Investors panicked with many thinking that bank balance sheets could be stressed by mass loan defaults across the economy.

However, as we now know, this hasn’t proven to be the case. A combination of record government stimulus measures and a better-than-expected pandemic response has left the Aussie banks in a solid position.

So while the NAB share price is down 24.2%, it could have been much worse. The real question is whether or not NAB is a cheap buy at its current valuation.

Is NAB a cheap buy right now?

In order to determine whether the NAB share price is cheap, it pays to compare it to some of its peers.

The Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) share price is down 25.0% this year while Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have fallen 14.0%.

If we use the S&P/ASX 200 Index as a benchmark, which is down 11.1% for the year, then all 3 of these ASX 200 bank shares are underperforming in 2020.

While the big four are similar, it’s not as simple as saying that because NAB’s share price has fallen more than CommBank’s has, it’s an automatic buy.

NAB trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 16.8 times. Compared to CommBank which is at 12.46 and Westpac at 13.64, this would appear to make NAB a touch expensive.

It’s also true that NAB is yielding 6.1% right now compared to the higher-paying Westpac and CommBank yields of 9.6% and 6.3% respectively.

Of course, dividend yields can be misleading, especially with the ASX banks currently holding back on distributions under APRA’s orders.

However, from what I can see, the NAB share price isn’t a cheap buy right now. ASX bank shares, in general, could be undervalued, but I don’t think NAB is a real stand-out at $18.67 per share.

More reading

• Is there a better buy than JB Hi-Fi shares today?
• Is the a2 Milk share price a buy after falling nearly 5% on Friday?
• James Hardie share price in spotlight as it upgrades profit guidance
• ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: ASX back in the green
• Beat low interest rates with Telstra and these ASX dividend shares

Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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ASX shares continue to be a great place to invest money to make good returns over the long-term. I’m excited by many of the opportunities that I could put $10,000 into.

Not every ASX share looks great value at the moment. COVID-19 has caused a lot of uncertainty for the economy and the stock market.

There are some shares which I think are opportunities and others which could be worth leaving on the watchlist for now.

If I had $10,000, these are the ASX shares I’d pick:

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) – $3,000 

A2 Milk has been one of the best ASX shares over the past five years. This COVID-19 period is a difficult time for many businesses, but A2 Milk continues to grow. A2 Milk said it’s expecting FY20 revenue to be in the range of $1.7 billion to $1.75 billion. This would be growth of 30% to 34% on FY19’s revenue.

The amount of growth that the ASX share can potentially achieve in North America alone is very attractive and it’s adding thousands of stores to its US distribution network every six months.

It’s currently trading at 28x FY22’s estimated earnings. I think that’s a reasonable price considering how much profit growth the company is creating each year.

Brickworks Limited (ASX: BKW) – $3,000 

I believe that Brickworks is a great value ASX 200 share at the moment. The company has already been making good shareholder returns for decades. At the current Brickworks share price I’d want to buy shares.

The best time to be greedy is when people are fearful about shares. COVID-19 is probably going to cause the Australian construction sector to have a difficult time over the next 12 months. But I think this is creating a good value opportunity to buy Brickworks shares whilst they are cheaper. I believe construction will return because it normally acts cyclically over time. Immigration will return at some point. 

Brickworks currently has a market capitalisation of $2.29 billion. Its industrial property trust stake is worth $710 million (growing) and its shareholding of Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (ASX: SOL) is worth $1.84 billion. Those two divisions have a combined pre-tax value of $2.55 billion.

Pushpay Holdings Ltd (ASX: PPH) – $2,000

Pushpay is one of the most exciting ASX shares to me at the moment. Since the start of May the Pushpay share price has risen 90.7%. These COVID-19 conditions are causing more people to donate through Pushpay’s electronic giving system rather than alternative means.

In FY21 the company is expecting to at least approximately double earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and foreign currency (EBITDAF).

The ASX share continues to improve its gross margin at an attractive rate. In FY20 the gross margin rose from 60% to 65%. This means each new $1 of revenue is more profitable. Management are expecting even higher margins over time. 

US churches are a great growth area for Pushpay and represent a $1 billion revenue opportunity for Pushpay.

Magellan High Conviction Trust (ASX: MHH) – $2,000

Some of the best global shares aren’t on the ASX. Businesses like Alibaba, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook and Visa are listed overseas.

Magellan High Conviction Trust is a listed investment trust (LIT) which looks to invest in the best businesses in the world, like the ones I just mentioned.

The strategy for the LIT is to hold around 10 different shares – the ones that the investment team have the highest conviction in.

I like the idea of getting international share diversification. However, I don’t want to invest in many of the other businesses out there. I just want exposure to the best ones. I think that’s exactly what this LIT provides.

As a bonus, it comes with a 3% distribution yield target. I think that’s a nice mix of rewarding shareholders whilst benefiting from capital growth. It’s currently trading at a discount to its net asset value (NAV), but I’m a little concerned about the upcoming US election on the US stock market which is why I only allocated $2,000 to this pick.

Foolish takeaway

I really like each of these shares. Each of them gives Aussie investors exposure to growing non-Australian earnings. At the current prices I’m attracted to Brickworks and A2 Milk the most, I think they have very good investment returns potential at this level. 

More reading

• Is the a2 Milk share price a buy after falling nearly 5% on Friday?
• ASX share price winners and losers of last week
• My ASX share for the week
• Top brokers name 3 ASX 200 shares to buy next week
• Where to invest $10,000 into ASX shares next week

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Brickworks and PUSHPAY FPO NZX. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of A2 Milk. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The James Hardie Industries plc (ASX: JHX) share price is likely to buck the market weakness this morning after it upgraded its guidance.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO) is tipped to fall by more than 1% when the market opens, according to futures pricing.

But the US-exposed building materials group could move in the opposite direction after it lifted its first quarter FY21 guidance (which is the current quarter).

Expanding margins

The group’s North America adjusted earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margin is now expected to be between 27% and 29% for the three months to June 30. This compares with its previous forecasts of 22% to 27%.

“In North America, housing market activity has steadily improved during the past seven weeks despite the COVID-19 pandemic,” said James Hardie’s chief executive Jack Truong.

“The better than expected underlying housing market during our Q1 FY21 combined with our continued focus on customer engagement to drive market share gains, resulted in volume growth in the second half of the first quarter.”

James Hardie’ guidance

Management also provided guidance for a number of its business units. Volumes at its North America Exteriors division is expected to be flat to 2% ahead of the 1QFY20.

The Australian business is tipped to be flat while its struggling European division will see volumes drop 11% to 14% over the same periods.

James Hardie’s decision to cancel its latest dividend is one factor helping bolster the amount of cash on its balance sheet. Management increased its liquidity guidance to more than US$640 million from its earlier expectation of “greater than US$600 million”.

The group will release its first quarter results on 11 August.

Why the Boral share price could also lift

The James Hardie share price might not be the only one outperforming the market this morning though.

The better than expected rebound in US housing market is also likely to benefit other ASX building products companies with material exposure to that market.

This includes the embattled the Boral Limited (ASX: BLD) share price as its income CEO Zlatko Todorcevski will be looking to restructure the group. Boral’s US business is a thorn in the side of shareholders.

Other ASX stocks in the spotlight

This in turn could lift sentiment towards Seven Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: SVW) after it bought a large stake in Boral.

Another ASX stock that could jump on the James Hardie upgrade today is Reliance Worldwide Corporation Ltd (ASX: RWC).

As previously reported, the US renovation and restoration market is also bouncing back strongly and that could lead to increased demand for the company’s plumbing repair solutions.

More reading

• ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: ASX back in the green
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• Chance of oil surging to US$190 is higher now than before COVID-19: JPMorgan
• 3 long-term ASX 200 shares I’d buy right now
• Top brokers name 3 ASX 200 shares to sell next week

Brendon Lau owns shares of James Hardie Industries plc and Seven Group Holdings Limited. Connect with me on Twitter @brenlau.

The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of Reliance Worldwide Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Reliance Worldwide Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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More reading

• James Hardie share price in spotlight as it upgrades profit guidance
• ASX share price winners and losers of last week
• Metcash share price on watch after recording $45.9 million FY 2020 loss
• Why Kogan, Sezzle, & Splitit shares just hit record highs
• My ASX share for the week

The post ASX set to fall at the open; Metcash reports FY20 results appeared first on Motley Fool Australia.

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (INDEXASX: XJO) finished the week up by 1.6% despite exhibiting some early wobbles. The week saw continued heavy trading of real estate companies, a steadying of the oil price, the government announcement of a $1.5 billion infrastructure package, and the largest retail turnover rise in 38 years. Although most ASX shares saw gains, as always, some also lost ground for the week.

Buy now, pay later

Buy now, pay later shares continued their inexorable rise last week. The Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) share price rose by 12.86%, while Sezzle Inc (ASX: SZL) surged a massive 30.13%. However Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P) saw its share price fall by 2.22% in the wake of likely profit taking. 

Another fintech company to see a double digit rise last week was Pushpay Holdings Ltd (ASX: PPH) with a 12.13% increase on the back of updated earnings.

Discretionary retail

Better than expected retail sales figures, along with a strong progress report from Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX:WES), placed some fire under the retail discretionary sector. The ABS Retail Trade Survey found that retail turnover rose 16.3% in May. As mentioned, this was the largest seasonally adjusted rise in 38 years. 

AP Eagers Ltd (ASX: APE) saw its share price jump 12.48% and Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd. (ASX: DMP) also rose by 10.78%. In addition, Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG) saw a 13.67% rise in its share price. Lastly, small cap women’s clothing retailer City Chic Collective Ltd (ASX: CCX) saw a very impressive increase of 19.77% on its share price for the week. 

Event-based ASX share price jumps

Three ASX small-cap shares stood out during the week with large-scale price rises due to specific events.

The Cardinal Resources Ltd (ASX: CDV) share price rose by 36.4% across the week on news that the company had recommended its shareholders accept a $300 million takeover deal.

The Healius Ltd (ASX: HLS) share price also jumped by 11.4% following news of a $500 million sale of its medical centres.  

Tiny engineering firm Decmil Group Limited (ASX: DCG) impressed the market by raising $52.4 million via a release of new shares due to start trading on 24 June. This capital raising is almost equal to the company’s entire current market capitalisation. Decmil saw its share price surge by 23.63% following news of the entitlement offer.

Market laggards

The real estate sector has been the highest traded sector over the past three weeks. Investors appear to be split over just how significant the impact of COVID-19 will be on the retail shopping A-REITs. While many A-REITs finished last week marginally higher, two with the largest exposure to retail saw falls. 

The Vicinity Centres (ASX: VCX) share price fell by 3.8% as did the Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) with a decline of 4.33% for the week. 

Other significant ASX share price falls were seen by airline and travel companies. Sydney Airport Holdings Pty Ltd (ASX: SYD) fell by 6.06%. Moreover, small cap Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ) saw its share price dive by a worrying 7.81%. This included a 2.64% tumble on Friday following the company’s announcement of a $30 million share purchase program, which was on top of its recent $90 million dollar capital raising. 

More reading

• Why Kogan, Sezzle, & Splitit shares just hit record highs
• ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: ASX back in the green
• Are these small cap ASX tech shares the next Afterpay or Appen?
• Top brokers name 3 ASX 200 shares to buy next week
• Where I would invest $50,000 into ASX shares immediately

Daryl Mather owns shares of Sezzle Inc. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended PUSHPAY FPO NZX. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO and Wesfarmers Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Limited, Scentre Group, and Sezzle Inc. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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