• Why the Boral share price could be set for more growth in FY21

    model construction workers working on increasing pile of coins, asx 200 building shares, boral share price

    The Boral Limited (ASX: BLD) share price is on the move again this week, continuing the resurgence of the blue-chip building material and construction juggernaut since it bottomed out at $1.68 in March. Despite being down 2.79% at the time of writing, Boral’s current share price of $3.66 represents a 117% gain on its March low.

    There’s no denying the company has underperformed in recent years, exemplified through multiple earnings downgrades and the ‘financial irregularities’ scandal of its American windows business. Despite this, here are 3 reasons why I remain bullish that Boral will turn the corner in FY21.

    Management shake-up

    In my opinion, the role management plays in the overall success or failure of a business is crucial. This is strongly endorsed by Jim Collins in his renowned management book Good to Great. Collins argues that getting the right people in the right seats on the bus – and getting the wrong people off the bus – is essential for a company’s broader financial success.

    Boral is going through significant changes in management, as the old guard under current CEO Mike Kane departs and a new era is ushered in. Various changes to the management team of its troubled North American operations were announced last month.

    This week, the highly anticipated appointment of Zlatko Todorcevski as the incoming CEO was also confirmed. In its statement to the market, the company revealed Todorcevski has 3 decades of experience in finance, business planning and strategy across several industries, and has maintained senior positions in Brambles Limited (ASX: BXB), Oil Search Limited (ASX: OSH), and BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP).

    Furthermore, the recent 10% stake taken in the company by Seven Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: SVW) is likely to include a fresh face in Boral’s boardroom. Overall, I’m optimistic these changes may provide the company with reinvigorated energy to navigate the present economic environment. To extend the Jim Collins’ metaphor, Boral seems to be making the necessary management changes to get the bus back to full speed, and that will likely enhance the company’s financial performance in the coming years. This period of transition may be an ideal buying opportunity for prospective investors.

    Shoring up its liquidity

    The COVID-19 pandemic has reiterated the importance of robust company cashflow in all industries, but the construction and materials sector has been one of the hardest hit. Consequently, Boral’s liquidity has faced substantial scrutiny, leading to the company bolstering its balance sheet through various debt mechanisms.

    These encompass a US private placement note issue of US$200 million, as well as various bilateral bank loan facilities including a $365 million, two-year debt obligation. These additional debts have allowed the company to bolster its balance sheet, which now holds $1.3 billion of cash and undrawn funds combined. Coupled with its expanded debt-financing campaign, Boral has been proactive in mitigating its capital expenditure by 15–20% this financial year, a strategic decision estimated to save up to $330 million.

    With debt at relatively inexpensive levels due to the low interest-rate environment in Australia and globally, I like Boral’s decision to increase its cash on hand and improve its liquidity on the books. And as an added bonus for shareholders, the company’s decision not to utilise an equity capital raising has ensured no further dilution of its share price.

    Having boosted its short-term cash flow, Boral seems well-placed to emerge from COVID-19 relatively unscathed financially. This should enable the company to maximise its profitability from new government projects heading its way.

    Government-led infrastructure projects

    Having recognised the lull in the construction industry, the federal government’s new JobMaker economic recovery plans will arguably send the Boral share price higher yet.

    Earlier this week, prime minister Scott Morrison announced 15 key infrastructure projects that are being prioritised to facilitate jobs growth and spur economic productivity. According to an ABC article, these projects include the Snowy Mountains 2.0 scheme and a $10 billion inland rail project from Melbourne to Brisbane.

    The government has also provided a $25,000 incentive for people to build or renovate their homes. This will further boost a national construction sector lagging in 2020 thus far.

    As the premier supplier of construction materials, I think plenty of government and household work might be heading Boral’s way in FY21. At a time when large-scale projects are drying up left and right, Morrison’s infrastructure plans may be the lifeline the company needs to increase its revenue and unlock further returns for shareholders in the year ahead.

    Foolish takeaway

    Having watched this company’s share price claw back the majority of its losses in the past month or two, some prospective investors may feel they’ve missed the chance to get on the Boral bus.

    Nonetheless, I think the shake-up in management may bring with it new ambition to take the company in a new direction, and this may favourably coincide with post-COVID government infrastructure projects being accelerated.

    Overall, I think Boral has the necessary liquidity and successful track-record to deliver for shareholders in FY21 and beyond.

    For more shares set for bumper growth, don’t miss the free report below.

    5 stocks under $5

    We hear it over and over from investors, “I wish I had bought Altium or Afterpay when they were first recommended by The Motley Fool. I’d be sitting on a gold mine!” And it’s true.

    And while Altium and Afterpay have had a good run, we think these 5 other stocks are screaming buys. And you can buy them now for less than $5 a share!

    *Extreme Opportunities returns as of June 5th 2020

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    Motley Fool contributor Toby Thomas owns shares of Boral Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • No. 1 rule of investing? Ask Benjamin Graham

    Happy young man and woman throwing dividend cash into air in front of orange background

    When you ask most people what the no. 1 rule of investing is, they’ll probably quote you Warren Buffett’s famous line “don’t lose money”. Whilst this simple (if not slightly confusing) rule is great advice and is easy to remember, there’s another father of investing I want to talk about today. And that person is Benjamin Graham.

    Ben Graham died back in 1976. However, in his day he was a masterful investor and was one of Warren Buffett’s mentors and even employers for a time. In 1949, he wrote one of the most famous books ever written on value investing – called (appropriately) The Intelligent Investor.

    This book is full of wonderful investing lessons. But one lesson that stands out for this writer above others is Graham’s description of ‘Mr Market’.

    Mr Market is described as every investor’s business partner, who is a fair businessman offering fair prices most of the time. But he does have trouble dealing with vicious mood swings, which can cause some irrationality. One day, he offers to sell you his share of a business at a stupidly high price. The next, he wants to buy your share for an offensively low price.

    Graham points out that Mr Market isn’t offended by an investor taking him up on his offer or not. Regardless, he comes back day in, day out with a new offer. But he also points out that most investors don’t know how to deal with their mercurial business partner. They might panic when Mr Market offers them a low price for their share of a business, capitulate to their fears and accept Mr Market’s offer. Otherwise, they might offer to buy Mr Market’s share off him if he offers to overpay for theirs in turn.

    Investing lessons from ‘Mr Market’

    Now if you haven’t already figured out that ‘Mr Market’ is an allegory for the share market, then I apologise for being too subtle. But Graham’s lessons on Mr Market are as true today as they were back in 1949. As such, Graham’s no. 1 rule of investing (in my view) can be distilled into this: know how to deal with (and take advantage of) Mr Market.

    In my view, the first goal of an aspiring investor should be to understand how this ‘Mr Market’ allegory applies when investing. It doesn’t take a lot of experience in the markets to see how true it is in so many ways. And understanding this parable is a sure way to put yourself on the path to successful investing. But the second goal should be to learn how you can use Mr Market’s temperament to your advantage. Financial markets like the share market run on human nature more than anything else. And they behave in a similar fashion today as they did in 1949. This is unlikely to change in the future, either, but if you understand this then you can use it to your advantage.

    Foolish takeaway

    So next time ‘Mr Market’ makes you an offer, you should think about whether its a fair or an emotional, mood-driven one. The best money you can make can be on the back of an emotional decision, but equally, these decisions can also be the most dangerous. Making sure you’re on the right side of that equation, again and again, is how investors like Buffett became so successful, and its how we all can follow in his (and Graham’s) footsteps.

    For some shares you might want to put these lessons into practise with, make sure to read the report below!

    5 stocks under $5

    We hear it over and over from investors, “I wish I had bought Altium or Afterpay when they were first recommended by The Motley Fool. I’d be sitting on a gold mine!” And it’s true.

    And while Altium and Afterpay have had a good run, we think these 5 other stocks are screaming buys. And you can buy them now for less than $5 a share!

    *Extreme Opportunities returns as of June 5th 2020

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    Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Is it too late to buy at today’s Kogan share price?

    Miniature shopping trolley filled with parcels next to laptop computer

    The Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN) share price has had an amazing ride on the ASX over the past few months. It has risen from $3.92 in mid-March to reach a new all time high of $14.29 in today’s trade. This was before pulling back slightly to its current price of $14.01 at the time of writing. 

    This growth has been driven by a number of positive market updates, with Kogan successfully tapping in to market opportunities offered up during the coronavirus pandemic.

    Earlier this month, Kogan successfully completed a $100 million placement. This capital will provide Kogan with the financial flexibility to act quickly on any lucrative future opportunities, in its quest to further expand.

    So, with such a strong recent rise in value, does the Kogan share price still offer investors growth potential right now?

    Sales and customers continue to climb

    In its latest market update in early June, Kogan revealed that its active customers continue to climb higher. Customer numbers were up by 6.5% during May to a total of 2,074,000. For the fourth quarter to date, i.e., April and May, gross sales for Kogan soared higher by more than 100% compared to the prior corresponding period in 2019.

    Kogan’s pipeline for new sellers in its Kogan Marketplace also continues to remain very strong. This is adding further fuel to help to increase the company’s strong sales momentum and, in turn, drive the Kogan share price even higher.

    Due to COVID-19 lockdown restrictions, specialist online retail sites such as Kogan have seen a spike in online sales. In particular, there has been strong demand for home office equipment and accessories such as PCs and laptops. In contrast, many bricks and mortar retailers have suffered from a heavy decline in foot traffic. While some have managed to keep a portion of sales momentum alive through their supplementary online channels, for many the impact on their physical store channels has been significant.

    Kogan also revealed in its June update that the company’s cash position remains very solid. It had $58.6 million of cash on its books at the end of May.

    Is it too late to buy at today’s Kogan share price?

    With such a massive share price jump over the past few months, the Kogan share price is definitely starting to look rather full. This is reflected in Kogan’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio which has now climbed to over 70.

    While I wouldn’t be rushing out to buy Kogan shares at today’s price, I still believe the company is a reasonable buy for a long-term investment horizon.

    I believe Kogan has created a solid foundation from which to tap into the rising demand for online shopping over the next decade. It has cleverly established a strong foot-hold in the local Australian market, upon which it can build over the coming years. Furthermore, the company’s expansion into a broad range of verticals provides sector diversification which can act as a buffer during different times in the investment cycle.

    For some shares that are way cheaper than Kogan, check out the following report.

    5 stocks under $5

    We hear it over and over from investors, “I wish I had bought Altium or Afterpay when they were first recommended by The Motley Fool. I’d be sitting on a gold mine!” And it’s true.

    And while Altium and Afterpay have had a good run, we think these 5 other stocks are screaming buys. And you can buy them now for less than $5 a share!

    *Extreme Opportunities returns as of June 5th 2020

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor Phil Harpur owns shares of Kogan.com ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Kogan.com ltd. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Australian unemployment jumps to 7.1%

    man holding umbrella looking at storm over city, recession, asx 200 shares

    In afternoon trade the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to end its positive run with a sizeable decline.

    At the time of writing the benchmark index is down a disappointing 1.5% to 5,900.8 points.

    What is weighing on the market today?

    While U.S. futures pointing to declines on Wall Street tonight are certainly not helping matters, today’s share market weakness could also be related to Australia’s rising unemployment levels.  

    This morning the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its jobs data and revealed another sharp rise in unemployment.

    According to the release, Australia lost a further 227,700 jobs in May. This brought the total number of unemployed people to a sizeable 927,000. Which means that the unemployment rate has now risen to 7.1%, compared to 6.4% in April and 5.2% in March.

    The head of labour statistics at the ABS, Bjorn Jarvis, commented: “The drop in employment, of close to a quarter of a million people, added to the 600,000 in April, brings the total fall to 835,000 people since March.”

    What about monthly hours worked?

    The unemployment rate doesn’t necessarily show the full extent of the disruption caused by the pandemic.

    The ABS data also shows that monthly hours worked fell a further 0.7% in May. This means they are now down 10.2% since March after April’s data was revised up to a 9.5% decline.

    Mr Jarvis explained: “The ABS estimates that a combined group of around 2.3 million people – around 1 in 5 employed people – were affected by either job loss between April and May or had less hours than usual for economic reasons in May.”

    One small positive was that the underemployment rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points in May to 13.1%. However, this still remains 4.3 points above the March reading.

    This means that the underutilisation rate, which combines the unemployment and underemployment rates, climbed to a new record high of 20.2% in May.

    “Women continued to be more adversely affected by the labour market deterioration than men. Younger workers have also been particularly impacted,” said Mr Jarvis.

    3 “Double Down” Stocks To Ride The Bull Market

    Motley Fool resident tech stock expert Dr. Anirban Mahanti has stumbled upon three under-the-radar stock picks he believes could be some of the greatest discoveries of his investing career.

    He’s so confident in their future prospects that he has issued “double down” buy alerts on each of these three stocks to members of his Motley Fool Extreme Opportunities stock picking service.

    *Extreme Opportunities returns as of June 5th 2020

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    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Housing surprisingly is doing much better in this recession than the last recession: Economist

    Housing surprisingly is doing much better in this recession than the last recession: EconomistChris Rupkey, Chief Financial Economist at MUFG, joined Yahoo Finance’s The Final Round to discuss his outlook for the economy and the latest housing permit numbers.

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  • Should you buy Domino’s shares right now?

    takeaway pizza

    The Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd. (ASX: DMP) share price has proved to be fairly resilient during the coronavirus crisis. Domino’s shares dropped as low as $41.66  in the early phase of the pandemic to be now trading back at $64.11. 

    Domino’s felt less of an impact than other global fast-food restaurant chains and stores who were required to close and are only now beginning to re-open.

    So, does the Domino’s share price offer value to investors right now?

    Getting back on track as coronavirus restrictions ease

    Domino’s most recent market update was in late April. It revealed that Australian store sales had been generally consistent prior to the crisis, with a small impact on local trading conditions. France, which one of the worst-hit European countries during the early phase of the crisis, had begun re-opening its stores. New Zealand stores have also re-opened and stores in Japan and Germany were able to maintain strong sales growth during the worst of the crisis.

    Domino’s had a key advantage over other fast food restaurant chains during the crisis as it doesn’t typically offer patrons a sit-down service. In addition, in-store pick-ups tend to be fast as they are optimised with an online ordering app with accurate pick-up times. Dominos also does a lot of home deliveries compared to other fast-food chains.

    This last update from Domino’s was 2 months ago. With lockdown restrictions easing in its operating markets, I think that trading conditions have likely picked up further.

    Medium-term growth outlook

    Domino’s did not provide any short-term guidance in its April update. However, it’s anticipating solid growth over the medium term. It forecasts new store openings to be in the range of 7% to 9% per year and store sales growth to be between 3% to 6% per year.

    So, are Domino’s shares in the buy zone right now?

    The Domino’s share price regained all its losses during the early phases of the pandemic. It is also trading close to 12-month highs, so it’s not cheap from a short-term perspective. However, it’s important to note that it is currently trading well below its all-time peak in mid-2016.

    I believe there’s strong potential for Domino’s shares to increase over the next 5 years through growing sales and a strong pipeline of future store openings.

    So, despite some possible short-term headwinds due to the coronavirus, I believe its share price is a buy right now.

    If Domino’s shares don’t take your fancy, perhaps take a look at the cheap shares suggested in our free Fool report below.

    5 ASX stocks under $5

    One trick to potentially generating life-changing wealth from the stock market is to buy early-stage growth companies when their share prices still look dirt cheap.

    Motley Fool’s resident tech stock expert Dr. Anirban Mahanti has identified 5 stocks he thinks are screaming buys. And you can buy them now for less than $5 a share!

    *Extreme Opportunities returns as of June 5th 2020

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    Motley Fool contributor Phil Harpur owns shares of Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Ahead of Apple’s iPhone 12 Launch, Top Analyst Says ‘Buy’

    Ahead of Apple’s iPhone 12 Launch, Top Analyst Says ‘Buy’Some good news just came Apple’s (AAPL) way. According to Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives, there finally appears to be some clarity regarding the highly anticipated launch of Apple’s flagship product, the iPhone 12 – its first to boast 5G capabilities.“While we were hearing of some delays over the past few months that would have pushed this key product cycle into the October/November timeframe, we now believe the iPhone 12 will be in late September with the smartphones ready to hit the shelves globally in early October,” said Ives.Ives was previously under the impression Apple was likely to push the launch back to the holiday period, on account of COVID-19’s impact on the global supply chain and the resultant depressed economic climate.However, the supply chain’s “impressive” return to normalization paves the way for Cook & Co. to kick off the 5G cycle as previously planned.Ives believes “there are 4 models being launched for iPhone 12 with a mix of 4G/5G with price points that potentially could be lower than $1,000 on some versions despite the additional 5G component.”As far as the 5G element is concerned, the US version will boast mmWave technology. Over the last month, Apple and its suppliers have smoothed out some lingering technology issues which is a “clear positive heading into this pivotal launch.”With the launch only a few months away, Ives summed up, “From a demand perspective, we estimate that ~350 million of Apple's 950 million iPhones worldwide are in this upgrade window which remains the linchpin to our longer-term bullish thesis and 5G super cycle for Cupertino over the next 12 to 18 months.”To this end, Ives rates AAPL an Outperform (i.e. Buy) along with a $375 price target. (To watch Ives’ track record, click here)So, that’s the Wedbush view, what about across the Street? Apple has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 28 Buys, 4 Holds and 1 Sell. However, with Apple only recently notching an all-time high, the average price target of $336.46 now implies possible downside of 5%. (See Apple stock-price forecast on TipRanks)To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

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  • ASX 200 down 1.3%: Big four banks tumble, Afterpay tipped to go higher

    man with head in hands after looking at stock market crash on computer, asx 200 share market crash

    At lunch on Thursday the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) looks set to end its positive run. The benchmark index is currently down a disappointing 1.3% to 5,914.6 points.

    Here’s what happening on the market today:

    227,700 jobs lost in May.

    The ASX 200 has come under pressure after the Australian Bureau of Statistics released its unemployment data. According to the release, Australia lost a further 227,700 jobs in May, bringing the total number of unemployed people to 927,000. This has lifted the unemployment rate to 7.1%, compared to 6.4% in April and 5.2% in March.

    Bank shares tumble.

    A combination of this news and U.S. futures dropping notably lower appears to be weighing heavily on the banks today. All the big four banks are deep in the red at lunch and acting as a drag on the ASX 200. The worst performer in the group is the Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) share price with a 2.3% decline.

    Ord Minnett increases Afterpay price target.

    The Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) share price could still go higher from here according to one leading broker. A note out of Ord Minnett this morning reveals that its analysts have retained their buy rating and almost doubled their price target to $64.70. It believes Afterpay could have almost 10 million active customers on its platform by the end of the financial year. The Afterpay share price is up 1% to $58.34 at the time of writing.

    Best and worst ASX shares.

    The best performer on the ASX 200 on Thursday has been the A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) share price with a 3.5% gain. Earlier this week analysts at UBS suggested the infant formula company might outperform its guidance in FY 2020. Going the other way, the worst performer is the AP Eagers Ltd (ASX: APE) share price with a 5.5% decline on the back of no news.

    5 stocks under $5

    We hear it over and over from investors, “I wish I had bought Altium or Afterpay when they were first recommended by The Motley Fool. I’d be sitting on a gold mine!” And it’s true.

    And while Altium and Afterpay have had a good run, we think these 5 other stocks are screaming buys. And you can buy them now for less than $5 a share!

    *Extreme Opportunities returns as of June 5th 2020

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro owns shares of Westpac Banking. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of A2 Milk and AFTERPAY T FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Splitit share price rockets 33% on new Mastercard deal

    Rocket soaring through the sky

    The Splitit Ltd (ASX: SPT) share price is on the rise today after the buy now, pay later (BNPL) provider announced a partnership with Mastercard. The multi-year agreement is intended to accelerate the global adoption of Splitit’s instalment solution. 

    At the time of writing, the Splitit share price is up by a whopping 33.33% to 88 cents per share.

    What does Splitit do?

    Splitit provides a payment method solution that allows customers to pay for purchases with an existing debit or credit card by splitting the cost into monthly payments. Unlike competitor Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT), Splitit does not itself extend credit to customers. Its solution enables merchants to offer customers an easy way to pay for purchases in monthly instalments with instant approval.

    What does the Mastercard agreement mean for Splitit? 

    The agreement with Mastercard allows Splitit to integrate its instalment solution with Mastercard’s suite of technology as a network partner. This will enable merchants to deliver seamless and secure customer checkout experiences, both in person and online. 

    Commenting on the new agreement, Splitit CEO Brad Paterson stated:

    This is a fantastic way to broaden distribution of our solution, leveraging Mastercard’s incredible global reach, and build out a range of instalment services. It’s a major plank in our strategy to grow through strategic partnerships and make Splitit a household name.

    Splitit and Mastercard will jointly develop instalment and related products. There are plans to launch pilots across 3 markets ahead of a global rollout.

    “The partnership with Splitit will help drive higher transaction volumes for businesses and deliver budgeting solutions in the moment customers are seeking them,” said Mastercard’s Executive Vice President of Global Merchant Solutions and Partnerships. 

    How has the Splitit share price performed?

    The Splitit share price has tripled since its March low. As a result, the company was added to the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) last week, following the quarterly index rebalance by S&P.

    Splitit reported record monthly merchant sales volumes of US$25.8 million in May, up 39% from April and 321% compared to May 2019. Splitit’s total unique shoppers surpassed 290,000 in May, up 18% from the end of Q1 FY20.

    The company also reported merchant numbers increased by 12% over the same period to 964. Its average order value also climbed, reaching US$939 in May up from US$737 in Q1 FY20. Its accelerated growth in May was driven by new large merchants onboarded in recent months. 

    Foolish takeaway

    BNPL providers have been among the ‘winners’ of the coronavirus pandemic, as lockdowns have seen e-commerce expansion accelerate. Merchants are also actively pursuing strategies to improve conversion rates and Splitit is seeing growth in its share of checkout. 

    5 stocks under $5

    We hear it over and over from investors, “I wish I had bought Altium or Afterpay when they were first recommended by The Motley Fool. I’d be sitting on a gold mine!” And it’s true.

    And while Altium and Afterpay have had a good run, we think these 5 other stocks are screaming buys. And you can buy them now for less than $5 a share!

    *Extreme Opportunities returns as of June 5th 2020

    More reading

    Motley Fool contributor Kate O’Brien has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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  • Has the Afterpay share price become too expensive to buy?

    Online shopper holding credit card in front of laptop

    The Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) share price is the gift that keeps on giving; soaring an eye-watering 500% since its March lows and up 46% since its February highs. As it continues to push uncharted territory, is the Afterpay share price becoming too expensive? 

    Buy now, pay later ‘land grab’ 

    Buy now pay later (BNPL) players are in a ‘land grab’ for international expansion and acquiring more merchants across a broader range of sectors. In Australia alone, there are almost a dozen BNPL offerings, all with slightly differentiated products and backed by some of the biggest financial and non-financial companies. The continued merger and acquisition activity and the broadening of its international footprint will see more money flow into the sector. I believe that as long as money continues to flow into the BNPL space with companies acquired at today’s elevated valuations, the Afterpay share price is likely to stay higher.

    Afterpay from a valuation perspective 

    To put it simply, it’s very hard to value Afterpay let alone any fintech-related company. In FY19, the company generated $264.1 million in revenue and a net loss after tax of $43.8 million. Even if Afterpay’s FY20 revenue were to double (which it probably will), that would still value the company at 30 times revenue!

    Afterpay and Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P) currently have a market capitalisation of approximately $15 billion and $2.5 billion respectively. In Q3 FY20 Afterpay generated $2.6 billion in sales with 8.4 million active customers and 48,400 active merchants. In the same time period, Zip generated $1.1 billion in sales with 1.9 million active customers and 22,700 merchants.

    Afterpay is 6 times bigger than Zip by market capitalisation. However, Zip’s metrics are highly relevant and after its QuadPay acquisition, within an arms reach. By comparison, Afterpay could look a little overvalued compared to Zip.  

    What will power the Afterpay valuation moving forward is the speed at which it will grow its US market share. The US represents the world’s largest retail market, some 15 times larger than Australia. The company is already making significant strides forward, achieving 4.4 million active customers after 2 years in the US market. 

    The power of private equity 

    Tencent’s substantial shareholding says a lot about where Afterpay is going. The Chinese tech behemoth has a phenomenal track record of investing and profiting from high growth companies across a broad range of sectors. Some familiar names include a 5% stake in Tesla and 7.5% stake in Spotify. Tencent is here to make money, and it could just be the beginning for its Afterpay stake. 

    Worth buying in at the current Afterpay share price?

    It is very challenging to buy Afterpay at today’s prices. I would hold my Afterpay shares if I was an existing holder. However, I believe it is too expensive for new investors to buy at the current Afterpay share price. 

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    Lina Lim has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of AFTERPAY T FPO. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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