It has been another disappointing day for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO). Concerns over a potential second wave of COVID-19 in the United States has led to the index crashing 2.4% lower to 5,818 points.

Four shares that have fallen more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are sinking lower:

The Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX: JIN) share price is down over 7% to $10.60. As well as being caught up in the market selloff, this morning S&P revealed that the lottery ticket seller would be dumped out of the ASX 200 at the next quarterly rebalance. Jumbo will cease being part of the benchmark index from the market open on 22 June 2020.

The Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price is down 4% to $5.37. Investors have been selling Santos and other energy shares on Friday after a collapse on oil prices overnight. Concerns over a potential second wave of coronavirus in the United States has spooked traders. If people are forced into lockdown again, demand for oil could take a major hit.

The Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) share price has fallen almost 5% to $17.65. Investors have been selling the banks again on Friday after Wall Street’s heavy decline. In addition to this, the banking giant revealed that AUSTRAC is further investigating matters that were brought to its attention by the bank recently. The financial intelligence agency has warned that it may amend its statement of claim to include allegations arising from these investigations.

The Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P) share price has dropped 6% to $6.12 despite releasing another positive trading update. The payments company’s update revealed that its strong growth continued in May. During the month, Zip recorded monthly transaction volume of $189.3 million and revenue of $15.6 million. This was a 63% and 78% increase, respectively, over the same period last year.

More reading

• ASX 200: improved consumer sentiment to near pre COVID-19 levels
• Zip Co share price tumbles lower despite delivering more stellar growth in May
• S&P quarterly rebalance: A2 Milk added to ASX 50 & NEXTDC in the ASX 100
• ASX 200 to sink lower after Wall Street crashes on second wave concerns
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday

James Mickleboro owns shares of Westpac Banking. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and recommends Jumbo Interactive Limited. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Jumbo Interactive Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Investors have witnessed many S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and All Ordinaries (ASX: XAO) shares withdraw guidances and defer dividend payments across March and April.

With uncertain times ahead, here are 3 top ASX dividend shares to watch. 

1. Money3 Corporation Limited (ASX: MNY) 

Money3 may not be a household ASX dividend share, but it represents a solid small-cap business with strong cash flow. It has also faced minimal disruption as a result of COVID-19.

The company provides automotive finance for the purchase and maintenance of vehicles. It estimates that approximately 1 in every 500 vehicles in Australia and 1 in every 800 vehicles in New Zealand have a current Money3 loan. Despite potential COVID-19 concerns, the business has reported a “minimal” impact on cash collections. It is expecting demand to return for automotive finance as lockdown restrictions ease. 

The company reported solid YTD March 2020 financial results, with earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) growing 43.6%. Net profit after tax (NPAT) also soared 49.2% on the prior corresponding period. As at 27 April, the company had a cash balance of $43 million and currently pays a dividend yield of 6.25%. 

2. Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) 

Despite the ASX 200 falling more than 3% on Thursday, the Fortescue share price held up held firm, falling a mere 0.73%. This follows news that the world’s largest iron ore miner, Vale SA was ordered to halt mining at its Itabira complex after 188 workers tested positive to coronavirus.

At the same time, demand in China is firm with low port stockpiles. Australian majors BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) and Fortescue will be poised to benefit. In my opinion, Fortescue could be the better pick, given its pure exposure to iron ore. It currently pays a dividend yield of 7.02%. 

3. Tassal Group Limited (ASX: TGR) 

There are many consumer tailwinds for Tassal’s salmon and prawns business. In Tassal’s recent presentation to the Goldman Sachs Emerging Leaders conference, it highlighted the following trends: 

• Rise in consumer demand for sustainable products that have traceability 
• Rise in at-home meals over eating out 
• Greater demand for easy to prepare meals solutions 
• Online media consumption to play a larger role in purchasing decisions.

From a supply perspective, Tassal highlighted that its strategic focus is to continually optimise biomass growth, size and sales mix to drive salmon EBITDA $/kg. I believe Tassal’s experience in sustainable farming practices in breeding, biosecurity, feed diet formulation, growth times and survival all attribute to bigger salmon that will generate better margins.

In my opinion, Tassal should be a very consistent ASX dividend share into the future, and currently pays a dividend yield of 4.68%. 

More reading

• 3 quality ASX dividend shares to solve your income needs
• 3 ASX 200 shares to add to your watchlist in 2020
• My share investing journey during the pandemic
• 2 top ASX dividend shares for income in 2020
• Here are another 2 insanely cheap ASX 200 shares to buy right now

Motley Fool contributor Lina Lim has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to end the week deep in the red after a major selloff on Wall Street overnight. In late morning trade the benchmark index is down 3.1% to 5,774.1 points.

There are not many shares that have managed to push higher today. But four shares that have are listed below. Here’s why they are on the rise:

The Mach7 Technologies Ltd (ASX: M7T) share price has returned from a trading halt and jumped 7.5% to 85 cents. Investors have been buying the enterprise image management systems provider’s shares after it announced the acquisition of Client Outlook for ~A$40.8 million. Client Outlook is a leading provider of an enterprise image viewing technology called eUnity. It increases Mach7’s addressable market opportunity from US$0.75 billion to US$2.75 billion.

The Meridian Energy Ltd (ASX: MEZ) share price is up 1.5% to $4.57. Investors have been buying the renewable energy company’s shares due to its status as a safe haven asset. The New Zealand-based energy company has operations on both sides of the Tasman sea.

The Spark Infrastructure Group (ASX: SKI) share price has risen 3% to $2.16. As with Meridian, Spark is seen as a safe haven asset and investors will often flock to it when markets become volatile. Incidentally, one broker that is positive on Spark is Macquarie. Last week it put an outperform rating and $2.33 price target on the company’s shares. This could mean there’s still further for its shares to run from here.

The TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPM) share price is up over 0.5% to $8.10. Investors have been buying the telecommunications company’s shares after it revealed the special dividend it plans to pay if its Vodafone Australia merger completes as planned. TPG Telecom plans to pay a fully franked special dividend in the range of 49 cents per share to 52 cents per share. This equates to a generous 6% to 6.4% dividend yield based on its current share price.

More reading

• TPG Telecom share price lower after revealing special dividend plans
• Can this ASX dividend share afford its 11% yield?
• The TPG share price is on the up. A good long-term buy today?
• ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: ASX bulls crash through 6,000 points
• These were the worst performers on the ASX 200 last week

James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of MACH7 FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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A Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) economic release reported improved consumer sentiment up 16.4% in May. We examine the release and its implications for the  S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).  

The 10 June economic release, penned by Westpac’s Chief Economist Bill Evans, reported improved consumer confidence to be back “around pre-COVID levels”, having “recovered all of the extreme 20% drop seen when the pandemic exploded in March-April.” 

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment recorded the 16.4% gain in May. A rise to 88.1 from the “extremely weak” 75.6 in April.

Evans reported that the Index is now only 2% below the average established in the September-February period. 

However, the release did warn that given the difficult recovery ahead, “it would be surprising if the recent upward momentum continues.” 

Further, the release pointed out that while the monthly gain was impressive, the index is still “relatively weak by historical standards — in pessimistic territory overall and down 7% on a year ago.” 

COVID recession and 1990s recession: better times ahead

While the release found that the data still suggests families are financially constricted and concerned about the near-term economic outlook, there is “firming optimism around prospects for finances in the year ahead.” 

Further, the release found that respondents are “confident that they can see eventual better times ahead whereas in the early 1990s there was a pervasive mood of despair for years.” 

ASX 200 and improved consumer sentiment 

Importantly for ASX 200 stocks reliant on discretionary spending, the Westpac release indicated that the largest gains were around views on the economic outlook and “time to buy a major item”. 

The ‘time to buy a major item’ sub-index posted a  strong 10.1% gain in June, on the back of a 26.7% May increase. 

That said, the buyer sentiment is still well below the long-run average. 

Consumer expectations for house prices

Evans reported that consumer expectations for house prices improved. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute House Price Expectations Index rose 10.5%. 

However, the index is still 43% below the cheery readings just before the COVID-19 lockdown. Further, Evans reported that survey results continue to “point to a sharp deterioration… compared to a few months ago.”

Finally, the proportion favouring real estate as the answer to ‘wisest place for savings’ dropped to 4% in March. Evans stated that this suggests “investors look likely to stay away from Australia’s housing market near term.” 

ASX 200 analysis

Evans concluded the release by noting that “unusually, more respondents nominated shares (11.4%) than real estate as preferred investment options.”

Can the currently reported investment preference for shares over real estate, coupled with improved consumer sentiment lift the ASX 200? Will the improved sentiment percolate across the economy? 

The sentiment can certainly impact the discretionary spending sector, at least in the near-term. 

For instance, the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary (ASX: XDJ) is up 7% from this time last month. It’s also up 4% from this time 3 months ago. 

Additionally, Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) — a stock that certainly benefits from improved consumer sentiment — is up 12.4% from this time last month. JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX: JBH) is also enjoying gains — up 11.3% from last month. 

More reading

• Why Jumbo, Santos, Westpac, & Zip Co shares are crashing lower
• 3 ASX 200 shares to buy and hold for decades
• Is ‘sell’ really a dirty word? How to know when to let go of your ASX shares
• Why the AFIC share price could be cheap today
• Woolworths facing fresh threat from Amazon.com

Motley Fool contributor Kiryll Prakapenka has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Wesfarmers Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Zip Co Ltd (ASX: Z1P) share price has rebounded off its lows but is still trading notably lower on Friday.

At the time of writing the payments company’s shares are down over 7.5% to $6.03. This is despite the release of another positive announcement this morning.

What did Zip announce?

This morning Zip released an update which revealed that its strong performance continued during the month of May.

In May, Zip recorded monthly transaction volume of $189.3 million and revenue of $15.6 million. This was a 63% and 78% increase, respectively, over the same period last year.

And while this growth is a touch slower than in April, when transaction volume lifted 86% and revenue rose 81% growth, it is still a very impressive rate of growth in such a challenging economic environment.

Zip added 65,000 new customers during the month, lifting its total to 2.1 million. This represents a total increase of 63% since this time last year.

Also growing strongly was its merchant numbers. They are up 46% year on year to 23,600.

Net bad debts low but rising.

At the end of May, Zip’s net bad debts stood at 2.16%. This compares to 1.99% at the end of April.

Management notes that this is in-line with expectations and significantly outperforming the market average.

Positively, monthly arrears, which is a forward indicator of future losses, reduced from 1.57% in April to 1.47% in May. In addition to this, there was no material change to the number of hardship assistance requests.

Zip’s Managing Director and CEO, Larry Diamond, commented: “May was another strong month for Zip – the performance of the business, both in terms of the continued strong transaction volume, and in particular the outstanding repayment performance, demonstrates the resilience of the Zip business model.”

The chief executive notes that the company is benefiting from the shift away from cash to digital, contactless payments, and ecommerce. Pleasingly, he expects this trend to continue in the future even after the pandemic ends.

Mr Diamond explained: “We also anticipate ecommerce penetration to remain at elevated levels post COVID-19 as consumers gain familiarity shopping online, and retailers invest significantly in this space.”

The chief executive also revealed that Zip is on course to achieve its guidance in FY 2020. “We remain on track to hit our FY20 target of $2.2b in annualised transaction volume set at the beginning of the year,” he concluded.

More reading

• S&P quarterly rebalance: A2 Milk added to ASX 50 & NEXTDC in the ASX 100
• ASX growth companies including Zip Co cash in on the rise of e-commerce
• A $10,000 investment in the Zip Co IPO would be worth $350,000 today
• My share investing journey during the pandemic
• 3 ASX shares to buy now with $10,000

James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of ZIPCOLTD FPO. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) share price has shot up over 100% from its trough on 23 March. The company has gradually started to recommence regional flights. Meanwhile, both national and international borders remain closed. You have to wonder if investors are taking a very large gamble, or if Qantas really is a good investment right now. 

Not the same old Qantas

It appears likely that Qantas will be a transformed company following the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. Reduced demand is likely to force down costs for employees and marketing, in particular. This will presumably drive the company to mould itself into a leaner outfit that is better equipped to face its new ‘normal’. Analyst Anthony Mulder from the investment bank Jeffries has forecast staff costs at Qantas to reduce to $2 billion in the 2021 financial year, down from $4.2 billion in 2019.

Qantas will, however, take a short term hit on fuel. The hedging they would have had in place to control costs will see them paying higher prices following the oil price’s sudden crash. Nonetheless, over the medium term, the company will see fuel costs fall. There is also talk of Qantas winding up or selling off its minority stake in Vietnamese offshoot Jetstar Pacific. 

What happens next?

It is hard to miss the growing crescendo calling for borders to reopen. The moment open borders are announced, I believe the Qantas share price will start to climb again. In addition, the company is well placed to return to a level of profitability.

It has been well supported by the government subsidising essential flights and its balance sheet remains very strong. Furthermore, Qantas retains a 19.9% stake in Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ). This provided the Aussie airliner with at least one air flight revenue stream throughout the lockdown period. Qantas’ stake in Alliance, however, is currently under review by the ACCC.

Is there value in today’s Qantas share price?

Notwithstanding all the factors above, I believe Qantas has the financial track record of a well managed company. Moreover, it has a strong balance sheet and high liquidity (cash) levels. As an indication of good management, Qantas has a 10-year average return on equity of 17.5%. This is also known as its return on net assets. I believe that for a capital intensive company, this is a good result.

Lastly, in his upgrade of Qantas, analyst Anthony Mulder gave it a target price of $6.20. Merrill Lynch Bank of America analyst Melinda Baxter also upgraded her recommendation, valuing the Qantas share price at $5.25. It is currently trading at $4.29, at the time of writing.

Foolish takeaway

During the pandemic, Qantas has demonstrated why it is one of Australia’s most widely held shares. It is reshaping itself for the future and has worked hard to be battle ready. With two prominent analysts recommending a higher target price, I believe the Qantas share price will start to climb once there is a hint that borders will reopen. 

More reading

• The smartest ASX shares to invest $10,000 in right now
• Flight Centre share price and other ASX 200 travel shares look set to continue rising
• ASX 200 Weekly Wrap: ASX bulls crash through 6,000 points
• Top brokers name 3 ASX 200 shares to buy next week
• Will the Qantas share price crash back to Earth?

Motley Fool contributor Daryl Mather has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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ASX 200 shares continue to bounce back strongly in June. However, we’ve seen a minor wobble this week as the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has fallen lower for 2 consecutive days, and is down almost 3% this morning.

Despite this, things are still looking relatively good in global share markets. Strong money supply and general optimism about 2021 are pushing share prices higher.

It’s easy to get distracted by short-term market movements. It’s important to keep an eye on the prize – building a long-term investment portfolio.

Here are a few ASX 200 shares that I think are worth buying and holding for decades into the future.

3 ASX 200 shares to buy for the long-term

When investing for the future, I like to think of some key themes that will be important. After all, future trends will drive the economy and that will be led by top ASX companies.

I think Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) is one share to buy for the future. CBA is Australia’s largest bank and has historically been a dividend staple of many Aussie portfolios.

There’s a lot of talk around disruption and the rise of the neobanks. While neobanks may continue to capture market share, I think the big four will be hard to dislodge.

CBA isn’t the only ASX 200 share that is looking tough to dislodge in its industry. I like the look of NextDC Limited (ASX: NXT) as a leader in the data storage and security industry.

NextDC looks to be laying the platform for future growth right now. The Aussie data storage group recently raised $672 million from investors to develop more data centres around Australia.

Another ASX growth share that I think is set for more growth is Polynovo Ltd (ASX: PNV). Polynovo’s proprietary NovoSorb BTM product continues to go from strength to strength. In fact, the Polynovo share price has rocketed 3,050% in the last 5 years and more than doubled in the last 12 months.

Foolish takeaway

These are just a couple of the ASX 200 shares I think will be strong companies in the decades ahead and are well worth considering today as long-term buys.

More reading

• Is ‘sell’ really a dirty word? How to know when to let go of your ASX shares
• Why the AFIC share price could be cheap today
• Woolworths facing fresh threat from Amazon.com
• Is this the start of a second COVID-19 share market crash?
• Is this why the NAB share price could be cheap today?

Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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With ASX shares now getting a grip on their earnings following the recent crash that left most of them oversold, it’s time to take stock of what the current ‘recalibration’ means for the overall market. The end of the financial year is looming large, and with the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) up around 35% since falling to 4,546 points on 23 March, there’s no better time to review the ASX shares in your portfolio.

Cutting your losses on non-performing shares is never easy. What makes it doubly hard is broker aversion to the S-word, with their recommendations typically gyrating between ‘buy’, ‘hold’, and ‘accumulate’.

But sometimes it simply pays to bite the bullet and take a loss. This, incidentally, can have some favourable tax considerations: notably the ability to offset losses against future gains. On the flipside, an attempt to avoid paying tax on a capital gain is insufficient reason not to sell a stock when you should.

Take gains off the table while you can

But it’s not only the rotten apples that you should consider selling down. Sometimes it’s equally important to know when to lock in some profit. That doesn’t necessarily mean existing a quality stock completely.

For example, many shares have seen major gains recently. One strategy for shareholders could have been to reduce their stake, and potentially buy back in following a share market correction, or via corporate activity. Due to a slew of recent capital raisings, some shareholders have been able to offload shares only to top up their holding at attractive discounts to the current price.

Admittedly, there’s nothing wrong with letting your profits run, especially if future upside is yet to be factored into the price. However, savvy investors know when to take profits before prices potentially fall.

The art of selling shares is also considerably less predictable than buying, so it pays to have a solid strategy.

Do your reasons for selling stack up?

Shares that have enjoyed a strong run up may start to look decidedly overheated. This often triggers smart investors to sell out at a price they perceive to be close to the top. While calling the top (or bottom) is something even most professional investors struggle with, one tell-tale sign that the price is looking decidedly ‘toppy’ is how far it rallies above any reasonable estimate of value.

One of the investment truisms coined by Warren Buffett is that the share price cannot continue to outperform the underlying business forever. At some point, something has to give. Unless there are future upsides to current valuations, the closer a company’s share price gets to its intrinsic value, the greater the potential risk of holding onto the stock.

So when the share price runs way ahead of value and for no justifiable reason, don’t get too greedy and don’t simply rely on raw exuberance or momentum. Equally important, remember that it’s over the short-term that the gap between the share price and the underlying performance of the business will be at its widest.

If you’re unsure of where a share price is heading, ask yourself this: If a stock trades at $10 today, while the intrinsic value is $20, do you expect the price to rise to $25 next year, and maybe $35 three years later? Can you afford to wait? If the answer’s yes – consider holding. If not – consider selling.

While it’s not rocket science, the conclusion you come to should be based on research into future valuations, rather than an educated hunch.

Take the money and run

You may also think about selling-down stocks that are starting to slip into what’s known as value-trap territory. Typical candidates include former share market darlings. While their best days might be behind them, these ASX shares can still attract investors due to their sheer size, dividend history or an instantly recognisable household brand.

Remember, shares that appear to be under-priced have typically become that way for good reason. For example, bad management, declining business performance, declining competitive edge (due to regulatory or technological change), excessive debt, an over-priced acquisition, or an unaffordable dividend payout ratio.

These factors will result in declining intrinsic valuations and future growth that’s less promising. This will eventually find its way to the share price. Unless you sell these stocks, they will continue to drag down the value of your overall portfolio.

The trick is to take these suppurating time-bombs – which, I’m sorry to tell you, are destined to be liquidated, enter receivership or administration – out of your portfolio before they do greater damage. Before they do, why not deploy what value is left in these lame shares into the market’s next best opportunities.

More reading

• 3 ASX 200 shares to buy and hold for decades
• Why the AFIC share price could be cheap today
• Woolworths facing fresh threat from Amazon.com
• Is this the start of a second COVID-19 share market crash?
• Is this why the NAB share price could be cheap today?

Motley Fool contributor Mark Story has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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