The value of Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) has plummeted lower this year with the Scentre share price falling 50%.

The Aussie real estate investment trust (REIT) has been aggressively sold down by investors spooked by the coronavirus pandemic.

Scentre owns and operates Westfield shopping centres across Australia and New Zealand. That means tightening restrictions have hurt foot traffic and therefore earnings in 2020.

Scentre is set to announce its half-year result on 25 August. Here’s where I think the Scentre share price will end up in August.

Why the Scentre share price has been smashed

Even experienced REIT investors are struggling to value retail real estate right now. That’s been reflected in the heavy Scentre share price losses this year.

With foot traffic plummeting and many bricks and mortar stores forced to close, the operating environment looks difficult.

Aside from supermarkets like Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL), in-store sales for many retailers have been tough.

It’s also hard to see if and when large-scale shopping centres will be back in vogue. Restrictions look set to stay for the near future which could hurt tenants and rent collection.

However, it’s not all bad news. One thing I do like about Scentre is the high-quality real estate assets in its portfolio.

That means despite some short-term headwinds, I still think the long-term outlook could be good for shareholders.

What can we expect in Scentre’s half-year earnings?

I don’t have high expectations for Scentre’s half-year earnings. However, I think the 50% fall in the Scentre share price shows that most investors are in the same boat.

I would expect the government’s JobKeeper stimulus to help in the short term. JobKeeper has helped businesses keep the lights on and meet their obligations this year.

A new Mandatory Code of Conduct for commercial leases, however, could be a drag on earnings. That new mandate has provided relief to tenants but won’t help Scentre’s bottom line in 1H20.

Where will the Scentre share price close in August?

This is a tough one. I think much of the expected earnings downturn is already reflected in the Scentre share price.

I think we could see Scentre shares climb higher in August. Stronger than expected earnings could provide a boost despite the medium-term outlook remaining tough.

More reading

• ASX 200 up 0.6%: ResMed & Scentre tumble, big four banks rise
• Why Advance NanoTek, ELMO Software, ResMed, & Scentre shares are dropping lower
• Scentre share price falls 3% following results update
• Is the National Storage share price a buy in August?
• Why I would add Coles and this ASX share to my retirement portfolio

Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of COLESGROUP DEF SET. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Scentre Group. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The Redbubble Ltd (ASX: RBL) share price has been a very strong performer over the last few months.

After an incredibly underwhelming performance during the first half of FY 2020, the pandemic has shifted spending online and given the ecommerce company a much-needed boost.

So much so, the Redbubble share price hit a record high of $3.07 on Thursday.

The good news for shareholders is that its shares could continue this positive form on Friday after the release of a positive business update this morning.

What did Redbubble announce?

According to the release, the leading global marketplace operator for independent artists recorded marketplace revenue of $122 million during the fourth quarter of FY 2020. This represents a 107% (97% in constant currency) increase on the prior corresponding period.

This strong finish to the financial year led to Redbubble recording full year marketplace revenue of $368 million. This was a 43% (36% in constant currency) increase on FY 2019’s marketplace revenue.

Pleasingly, management revealed that its strong sales growth has continued during the early stages of FY 2021.

Redbubble’s marketplace revenue was $49 million in July, up a massive 132% (133% in constant currency) on the prior corresponding period.

Management advised that a good portion of this growth has been driven by a spike in demand for face masks on its platform during the pandemic. 

It commented: “Topline trends seen in 4Q continued into FY2021, propelling both of RB Group’s marketplaces. The increasing shift to online shopping resulted in YoY growth across all core geographies and product categories. Face masks have contributed $26 million of Marketplace Revenue from launch at the end of April until 31 July.”

No earnings update for FY 2020 was provided with this announcement. This will be released to the market with its full set of financial results on 21 August 2020.

More reading

• Why the Redbubble share price is trading higher today
• Why 5G Networks and these ASX shares just hit record highs
• These ASX eCommerce shares are riding the online shopping wave
• The Redbubble share price is up almost 500% from its low: Is it too late to invest?
• 2 ASX tech shares with stellar growth prospects

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Are we seeing a bull trap for beaten down ASX shares?

Yesterday was a good day for some of this year’s biggest losers. The oOh!Media Ltd (ASX: OML) share price led the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) winners with an 8.3% gain.

Similarly, Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD) and Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB) shares climbed 6.9% and 6.0%, respectively.

But it’s not all good news in the market right now. Here’s why I’d be wary of buying shares in volatile industries based on recent gains.

What is a bull trap?

A bull trap is a false signal that occurs in share markets. It’s also often referred to as a ‘dead cat bounce’ where a beaten-down share climbs before falling back down.

Effectively, investors see a beaten-down ASX share like Webjet climbing higher. Thinking this is the time to buy cheaply, investors pile in and see some gains. However, there is often a trigger like an announcement or more data that shows it was just a false positive, and the ASX share falls lower again.

Why a bull trap could be coming for some ASX shares

The ASX 200 benchmark index has largely moved sideways since recovering from the March bear market. However, investors continue to be flighty and worried about the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic.

On the one hand, everyone knows we have immense job losses on the way. There are also concerns for high-profile industries like hospitality, travel, outdoor media and the arts.

Interestingly, the Webjet share price has rocketed 14.5% higher since Monday. ooh!Media shares have climbed 9.9% while the Corporate Travel share price is up 11.9% this week.

That’s despite Victoria reaching stage 4 lockdowns and a precarious situation remaining in many states across Australia.

That could mean we’re at the beginning of a classic bull trap. As investors cling to some optimism, particularly amid the August earnings season, some of these beaten-down ASX shares may climb.

However, this probably isn’t based on anything fundamental. I’d rather wait to see the August results and make a buy, hold or sell decision with more information in my hands.

Foolish takeaway

If you’re brave and willing to take some risks, now could be a chance to buy some ASX shares cheaply. However, I think I’ll be steering clear of some at-risk industries for the time being.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• ASX 200 rises 0.7%, ResMed result disappoints
• Village Roadshow locked in a capital raise as it secures new $70m facility
• Why the Corporate Travel Management share price is racing 7% higher today
• Deepening partnership with Telstra fails to excite the Dubber share price

Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Corporate Travel Management Limited and Webjet Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended oOh!Media Ltd. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Is the Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) share price a good buy this month? Shares in the Aussie gold miner are up 23.4% this year as global gold prices continue to climb.

With Newcrest set to report its full-year result next Friday, what can we expect from the Newcrest share price for the rest of the year?

Why the Newcrest share price has rocketed higher

Newcrest is one of the world’s largest gold mining companies. The company is an unhedged gold producer that generates strong operating cash flow.

In fact, Newcrest’s FY19 free cash flow surged 34% higher to $804 million with record gold and copper production numbers.

The company also had its lowest-ever annual all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $738 per ounce. I think that bodes well for the company’s FY20 result next week.

The Newcrest share price has already climbed higher but I think we could see a surprise earnings performance.

Global gold prices have smashed previous all-time highs and continue to climb past US$2,000 per ounce. With the coronavirus pandemic causing a spike in demand for gold, that means Q4 earnings could be particularly strong.

If Newcrest can keep its AISC low this year with a higher realised price, that could spark a share price rally in August.

Is August the time to buy?

ASX gold shares like Newcrest have had a strong run in 2020. There’s always the risk of a disappointing earnings result ruining that momentum.

However, I’m quietly confident about the Newcrest share price. I think the company’s unhedged nature could also help boost earnings given the rocketing gold prices.

The real question is whether or not the Aussie gold producer is a good value buy.

The company trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 36.1 which is cheaper than some of its peers. For instance, Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX: SAR) trades at a P/E of 44.4.

Foolish takeaway

If you want to invest in ASX gold shares, I think the Newcrest share price could be a good option.

Whether you’re keen on buying or not, I think the 14 August earnings result will be one to watch.

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• Expert warns that record-breaking gold price is facing painful correction
• Why this leading fundie likes the Newcrest share price
• Up 21% in a month, is the Northern Star share price a buy?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday

Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The REA Group Limited (ASX: REA) share price will be one to watch this morning following the release of its results for the 12 months ended 30 June 2020.

How did REA Group perform in FY 2020?

In FY 2020 REA Group was presented with challenging market conditions and unprecedented global uncertainty because of the pandemic.

Its first half performance was impacted by significant declines in residential listings and new project commencements. This was driven by a restrictive lending environment following the Royal Commission. Whereas the second half was of course impacted by lockdowns, social distancing, and economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus pandemic. This ultimately led to national listing volumes falling 12% in FY 2020.

Despite this, REA Group handed in a robust set of numbers this morning. For the 12 months ended 30 June 2020, the property listings company reported revenue of $820.3 million. This was a decline of just 6% on the prior corresponding period.

And thanks partly to a 9% reduction in operating expenses to $328.2 million, REA Group’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) fell just 5% to $492.1 million. The latter compares favourably to the analyst consensus estimate of $468 million for FY 2020.

On the bottom line, REA Group posted a 9% decline in net profit after tax to $268.9 million and earnings per share of 204.1 cents.

At the end of the period the company had a strong balance sheet, with low debt levels and a cash balance of $223 million.

This balance sheet strength allowed the REA Group board to declare a full year dividend of 110 cents per share, down 7% on FY 2019’s dividend.

Management commentary.

REA Group’s CEO, Owen Wilson, was very pleased with the way the company performed during a difficult 12 months.

He commented: “I am proud of the way REA has responded to the COVID-19 crisis, quickly adapting our products and experiences to enable Australians to continue to find, buy and sell property. In these challenging conditions, our products and services are playing an increasingly vital role in supporting our customers and vendors.”

“Pleasingly, our flagship site realestate.com.au extended its leadership position in FY20. Each month, 60% of Australia’s adult population is visiting our site, with a new record of almost 12 million people in May,” said Mr Wilson.

FY 2021 outlook.

Management notes that the pandemic continues to create widespread market volatility. In light of this and the economic uncertainty, it advised that it is difficult to predict market outcomes.

However, FY 2021 started positively. In July, national residential listings were up 16% with Sydney up 47% and Melbourne up 13%. Management notes that the magnitude of the listings increases reflect the weak comparatives in July 2019.

Furthermore, despite the effects of COVID-19, it saw strong levels of buyer enquiry in July underpinned by low interest rates and healthy bank liquidity.

Though, it acknowledges that it will be a different story in Melbourne in August because of lockdowns. And combined with listing volume declines in the Commercial and Asia businesses, it expects to see an adverse impact on its first quarter revenue.

In addition to this, the company revealed that it has deferred price increases that were due to commence on 1 July. Once conditions improve sufficiently, it will consider implementing these increases. In the meantime, it hopes to offset this somewhat by keeping its core operating costs at least flat for the full year.

Mr Wilson concluded: “The property market has shown great resilience, bouncing back from the lows of COVID-19, however, the extent of this recovery is still dependent on the efforts to contain the virus and the outlook for the underlying economy. We have a strong balance sheet, a talented workforce and a loyal audience which will see us emerge an even stronger business once more normal conditions return.”

More reading

• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• The best blue chip ASX shares to buy today
• House prices are falling – which ASX shares are in the firing line?
• TPG and 1 other ASX share to buy and hold for long-term growth
• Where to invest $20,000 into ASX shares right now

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended REA Group Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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