Could ASX shares follow Aussie wages in moving lower?

Given wage growth is a powerful economic indicator, there’s a strong possibility.

This morning, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its wages data for the March quarter 2020. The ABS reported that the seasonally adjusted Wage Price Index (WPI) rose 0.5% in the March quarter and 2.1% over the preceding 12 months.

It’s worth noting 2 things from these statistics. Firstly, these wage rises barely cover the rate of inflation for the same periods. According to the ABS, inflation was 0.3% in the March quarter and 2.2% over the preceding 12 months.

Secondly, this period only just clips the onset of the coronavirus and associated economic shutdowns and, as such, is more of an indicator of ‘how things were’ compared to ‘how things are’. We’ll have to wait until the statistics for the June quarter are released to get a better idea of how much the economy has been impacted by the coronavirus.

So, what do these wage figures tell us? Well, according to the Australian Financial Review (AFR), the data isn’t too promising from an economist’s point of view. The AFR notes that one economist is predicting an unemployment level of 12% in the weeks ahead and expects the Fair Work Commission to freeze the minimum wage in 2020. All of this points to relatively flat wages (perhaps even declines) for the remainder of 2020.

Most of the downward pressure on wages will come from soaring unemployment. Employers don’t have much of an incentive to offer higher wages for new staff when so many people will be looking for work, however, to temper this blow, inflation is also likely to significantly drop through the remainder of 2020.

What does this mean for ASX shares?

Low wages are a consequence of lower economic growth, which is the underlying issue here both for the economy and (in my opinion) the stock market. Low growth and high unemployment translate directly into consumers spending less money, which in turn is bad news for ASX companies.

Consumer staples companies like Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) and Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) will likely fair ok, but it’s the consumer discretionary companies that I think investors should watch out for.

With low growth and high unemployment, how many people will be shopping for new TVs from Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (ASX: HVN) or new iPhones from Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN)? Not nearly as many as were in 2019 I’d wager.

We have some sobering numbers here and I wouldn’t be surprised if the flow-on effects emerge on the ASX this year.

More reading

• ASX 200 up 0.35%, CBA gives Q3 update
• 4 top ASX shares to invest $4,000 into immediately
• 3 blue chip ASX dividend shares to buy right now
• 2 ASX shares that could set you up for life
• 3 ASX dividend kings to buy and hold forever

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Kogan.com ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of COLESGROUP DEF SET and Woolworths Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Investors aren’t letting any dips go to waste. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (Index:^AXJO) staged a late recovery to finish the day 0.4% higher after slumping by more than 1% in the morning.

This is happening quite regularly in recent times and reinforces my belief that there’s a lot of money waiting on the sidelines.

Eager buyers

The limited selection of investment alternatives to equities and fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) are supporting the market amid the COVID-19 market sell-off.

But this isn’t an excuse to buy ASX shares indiscriminately. Since the ASX 200 bounced from its bear market low on March 23, many stocks have run ahead of fundamentals.

Those hunting for buying opportunities could find their targets among the latest batch of ASX shares that were just upgraded to by brokers to “buy”.

Dressed for success

One potential stock for your watchlist is Kathmandu Holdings Ltd (ASX: KMD). Credit Suisse upgraded the adventure gear retailer to “outperform” from “neutral” as it believes its attractive valuation overrides the near-term uncertainties.

“While we acknowledge KMD faces a period of earnings uncertainty, we believe the strength of the company’s execution during the peak of lockdown restrictions; the consumer appeal of its brands; and its robust balance sheet all underpin our confidence in the company’s recovery,” said the broker.

“This view is supported by our scenario analysis which highlights valuation upside under all scenarios.”

Kathmandu is listed on both the ASX and the New Zealand Stock Exchange. Credit Suisse’s price target on the stock is NZ$1.40 a share, which implies a more than 40% upside from Wednesday’s closing price.

Beating the street

Another stock on the upgrade list is CSR Limited (ASX: CSR). Wilsons lifted its rating on the building materials group to “overweight” from “market weight” after CSR posted its full year result.

As foreshadowed in my article yesterday, brokers will be busy upgrading their earnings forecasts for the group.

“We are encouraged by the better than expected result, which highlighted market share growth and margin resilience in the Building Products segment, despite challenging construction markets,” said Wilsons.

“While there is potential for some earnings volatility in Building Products due to the timing and stage of the residential construction cycle, we are confident a robust balance sheet, advanced aluminium hedging profile and an attractive property portfolio provides support.”

The broker’s 12-month price target on CSR is $4.87 a share, which implies a 36% upside if dividends are included.

More reading

• How to use your superannuation to become a millionaire
• Top brokers name 3 ASX 200 shares to buy right now
• LNG spot price surge benefits ASX 200 shares
• The smartest ASX shares to buy if you have $2,000
• ASX gold shares steady: Can gold provide your portfolio with defensive and safe returns?

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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I’m a big advocate of buy and hold investing and believe it is one of the best ways to grow your wealth over the long term.

If you can identify a company which has the potential to grow consistently over a long period of time, you can generate some incredible returns on the share market.

A prime example of this is CSL Limited (ASX: CSL).

CSL, which was previously known as Commonwealth Serum Laboratories, was established in Melbourne in 1916 to service the health needs of a nation isolated by war.

In the years that followed CSL provided Australians with access to 20th century medical advances including insulin and penicillin, and vaccines against influenza, polio and other infectious diseases.

It was incorporated in 1991 and then listed on the Australian share market in 1994 for a stock-split-adjusted price of $0.76 per share. Today its shares are changing hands for a massive $306.97.

This means investors that invested $10,000 into the CSL IPO back in 1994 would have received 13,157 shares for their troubles.

Fast-forward to today and those 13,157 shares have a total value of $4,038,804.29. Yes, you read that correctly, a $10,000 investment is now worth over $4 million today.

Don’t forget the dividends.

But it gets better. Very few people would turn to CSL for dividends. Due to the premium that its shares (deservedly) trade at, CSL’s shares will generally only ever yield a ~1% dividend.

However, if you bought shares at the IPO, you would be counting down the days to its dividend payments each year.

In FY 2020 CSL is expected to pay a dividend of approximately $3.13 per share. This means that those 13,157 shares we acquired at the IPO would generate total dividends of $41,200 this year.

That’s more than four times the original investment and, based on its current trajectory, is only likely to increase over the coming years.

And while not every company will generate as strong returns as this, if you choose wisely and focus on companies with strong business model and positive long term growth prospects, you might just identify a future millionaire maker.

More reading

• How to become a better investor in just 2 minutes
• 4 top ASX shares to invest $4,000 into immediately
• The smartest ASX shares to buy if you have $2,000
• Why the coronavirus is still affecting share markets
• Is this ASX healthcare share about to soar?

James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of CSL Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Trade tensions between Australia and China are poised to escalate which could put a $153 billion export market in jeopardy. Tensions have been growing between the 2 trading partners following the Australian government’s push to launch an independent inquiry into the COVID-19 pandemic.

In response, the Chinese government has retaliated to suggestions of an independent inquiry by imposing economic pressure. China recently suspended beef imports from 4 meat processing plants in Australia and has threatened to slap major tariffs on Australian barley exports.

Chinese businesses and consumers have been a reliable source of demand for many Australian goods and services. As a result, Chinese demand has an important role in the post-pandemic recovery of Australia’s economy.

Here are 3 ASX shares that are reliant on Chinese demand and could suffer from a potential trade war.  

Nufarm Limited (ASX: NUF)

Nufarm is a crop protection and specialist seeds company that supplies domestic and international farmers with support for food production. However, the company’s reliance on China as a supplier could put local farmers under pressure to produce crops and feed for livestock.

Nufarm’s supply chain is heavily exposed to negative repercussions from trade tensions with China. The company currently gets all of its products needed for agricultural production, such as herbicides and pesticides, directly from China. As a result, tariffs and supply constraints could have wider consequences.   

Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD)

Agribusiness companies like Elders could also be right in the firing line if trade tensions with China escalate. Elders is a leading supplier of fertiliser, chemicals and livestock to regional and rural Australia. The company also has strong exposure to trade with China.

Elders currently imports all the ingredients for its crop protection and fertiliser distribution business from China. In addition, the company is also involved in the direct sale and distribution of Australian beef and lamb to Chinese consumers.

According to reporting in the Australian Financial Review, the government’s select committee into COVID-19 and the security issues the pandemic raises will also look at the supply-chain risk around Chinese imports.

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)

The Australian wine market is already under pressure following a harsh bushfire summer. Australia is the 5th largest exporter of wine in the world, with China accounting for the majority of the volume.

The operations of Treasury Wine reflects the wine industry’s reliance on China, with Asia being the company’s most profitable market. Treasury Wine relies heavily on demand from China, generating more than 40% of its total profits from Asia. The company’s prestigious and luxury brands, such as Penfolds, are highly popular in the Chinese market and offer better profitability margins.

Treasury has already downgraded its earnings forecast due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Trade tensions could put the company under further pressure given its poor performance in other international markets.

Foolish takeaway

Although iron ore and coal are the largest imports to China, companies in these sectors have a greater pull in Chinese trade. In my opinion, companies and businesses that are heavily reliant on China for growth in the short and long term are the most susceptible to trade tensions.

More reading

• Indonesian market boom for 6 ASX shares
• How a Chinese boycott could impact these ASX shares
• How to earn more frequent retirement income from ASX shares
• Treasury Wine share price falls 5% as it faces another class action
• Have ASX shares in the Australian wine sector bottomed?

Motley Fool contributor Nikhil Gangaram has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Elders Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Is the Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS) share price a good long-term buy today?

TLS shares are indeed having a strong day – up 1.13% at the time of writing to $3.12. However, Telstra shareholders are still significantly underwater so far in 2020  and a long way from the near-$4 levels we were seeing in January and February.

So does this mean it’s a good time to jump into Telstra? Well, let’s take a look!

Why Telstra shares have dipped in 2020

Like most ASX shares, Telstra has not escaped from the ravages of the coronavirus unscathed. The company was forced to cut back on its T22 cost-cutting strategy earlier in the year, which was to involve job cuts. Whilst this is great news for Telstra’s employees and (in my opinion) the right thing to do, it will mean that the company won’t be as profitable in 2020 and 2021 as a result. This partly explains the depressed Telstra share price, in my view.

Nevertheless, Telstra has maintained the interim and special dividends that it paid in March at 8 cents per share and has given no indication that its final dividend (due to be paid in September) is under threat.

On current prices, that would give Telstra a dividend yield of 5.13%, or 7.33% grossed-up with full franking credits.

Are Telstra shares a long-term buy today?

As a dividend share alone, I think Telstra is worthy of consideration for a portfolio today. It is a very defensive company – we are all willing to pay for internet and phone services through thick and thin these days. In this era of ultra-low interest rates, I think a solid dividend adds a lot of value to this company.

Looking forward, I see a lot of value in the Telstra share price, too. The company is investing heavily in 5G technology which has the potential to overhaul the 4G tech that’s currently in use across all mobile devices. Applications for 5G range from the Internet of Things (IoT) to improved healthcare and ‘smart cities’.

As the country’s biggest telco with the most cash to throw around, I think Telstra stands to benefit most from the rollout of 5G and I think every Telstra shareholder should be excited about the potential of this new technology for the company.

Foolish takeaway

I think there’s a compelling case for a long-term buy with Telstra shares at current prices. Right now, Telstra is a solid dividend stock with a robust yield but there’s also the potential of the future 5G to look forward to. There’s hopeful upside without too much downside, a combination I like!

More reading

• 3 blue chip ASX dividend shares to buy right now
• Why high yield dividend shares can be detrimental to your wealth
• Is it time to buy ASX small caps for your portfolio?
• Top ASX Dividend Stock Picks for May 2020
• 3 high quality ASX shares for a retirement portfolio

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen owns shares of Telstra Limited. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Telstra Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has fallen heavily over the last couple of months due to the coronavirus pandemic.

This has led to some of the shares on the index trading at a significant discount to their highs.

Three ASX 200 shares that are down 30% or more in 2020 are listed below. Are they bargain buys?

Australia and New Zealand Banking Grp Ltd (ASX: ANZ)

The ANZ share price is down 37% since the start of the year. Investors have been selling the bank’s shares due to concerns over the impact the pandemic is having on its profits and ultimately its dividends in the near term. This was evident in ANZ’s recent half year results, which saw the bank post a 51% decline in profit to $1.55 billion. This decline was largely the result of credit impairment charges of $1.674 billion and led to the bank deferring its dividend. While this was disappointing, I’m optimistic that the worst is now priced into its shares. So, with Australia on the path to reopening, now could be a good time to invest.

Nearmap Ltd (ASX: NEA)

The Nearmap share price is down 37% in 2020. The aerial imagery technology and location data company’s shares were sold off earlier this year due to a number of downgrade/churn events which led to Nearmap downgrading its guidance. While this was disappointing given its long track record of smashing expectations, I feel confident it is just a temporary headwind and its long term outlook remains very positive. In addition to this, the company has recently announced cost cutting measures and expects to be cash flow breakeven by the end of the financial year. This means the risk of a dilutive capital raising is now very small. In light of this, the quality of its product, and its massive market opportunity, I believe Nearmap would be a top option for patient investors.

Sydney Airport Holdings Pty Ltd (ASX: SYD)

The Sydney Airport share price has fallen 37% since the start of the year. This sizeable share price decline has been driven by the coronavirus pandemic and the impact it is having on passenger numbers. There’s no denying that the short term outlook is bleak, but things will improve as restrictions ease. I suspect that its shares will begin to rerate higher as its passenger numbers recover. This could make it worth being patient with Sydney Airport’s shares and holding them with a long term view.

More reading

• This is the best ASX big bank stock you can buy right now
• How can the ASX 200 soar with rising unemployment?
• ASX 200 down 0.9%: CBA reveals $1.5bn COVID19 provision & gold miners charge higher
• Dividends are drying up – but not for these ASX shares
• Safe dividend stocks to buy today for the COVID-19 world

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Nearmap Ltd. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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There is no doubt that the downturn in overseas travel has been devastating to our local travel industry. Many of our leading ASX travel shares have seen their share prices plummet in recent months as bans on international travel have kicked in.

Data just released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) indicates that overseas arrivals in Australia in April 2020 were down by 99% compared with April 2019.

Devastating impact on ASX travel shares

Since 20 February, Australia’s major airline Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) has seen its shares decline by a massive 47%. Qantas recently secured a further $550 million in funding against 3 of its aircraft, following a $1.05 billion raising in March.

The COVID-19 impact on its major competitor Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VAH) has been even more devastating, with Virgin shares falling heavily in the months before the company entered voluntary administration in April.

The travel booking sector also has been hit savagely, as both international and domestic flight bookings have dried up. Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD) has seen a partial rebound in its share price since mid-March to now be down around 30% since 20 February.

Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB), which is down 67%, and Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT), which is down by 71%, in the same period. Both Webjet and Flight Centre were forced to undergo capital raisings to boost liquidity and try to ensure they come out of the crisis in a sound financial position.

Sharp decline in April part of a downward trend

The ABS revealed that over two-thirds of the 22,000 arrivals in April were citizens returning from overseas, while just under 7,000 arrivals were non-Australian citizens.

The ABS further noted that the decreases in arrivals and departures during April were part of a continuing downward trend that has been evident in the past few months since travel restrictions were first put in place by the Australian government at the beginning of February.

When will international travel pick up again?

It is quite possible that domestic travel could gradually start to pick up in the months ahead as the government begins to ease lockdown restrictions. However, the chances of international travel getting back to normal to any significant degree before the end of this year are highly unlikely.

While the Australian government hasn’t made any official comments, the most likely first step for international travel will be for flights to resume between Australia and New Zealand, with travel between Australia and other countries introduced further down the track when the outbreak of the pandemic globally is more under control.

More reading

• ASX stock of the day: This ASX airline share jumped 45% today on expansion speculation
• Regional Express soars 45% higher amid plans to take on Qantas and Virgin Australia
• The smartest ASX shares to buy if you have $2,000
• Why Afterpay, Flight Centre, Mesoblast, & Sezzle shares are dropping lower
• 3 top ASX 200 shares you can buy on sale today

Motley Fool contributor Phil Harpur owns shares of Corporate Travel Management Limited and Webjet Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Corporate Travel Management Limited and Webjet Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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I think it’s very possible to build good wealth with small investments. You just have to utilise the power of compound interest.

If you think you need to invest hundreds of thousands of dollars to build good wealth then you’d be mistaken.

There are great calculators out there that help you calculate how much you can build your wealth in the coming years and decades.

According to Moneysmart, if you invest $500 every month for 20 years and the share market grows at 10% a year then you’d finish with $380,000. That’s not millionaire status, but investing $6,000 a year is fairly achievable for most households. That’s not increasing the monthly $500 investment at any point.

Imagine if you were 25 and had 40 years to compound your wealth to retirement instead. You’d end up with over $3.1 million.

What ASX shares would be helpful for building good wealth?

You could go for good exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that provide diversification and have cheap fees like BetaShares Australia 200 ETF (ASX: A200), iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX:IVV) and iShares S&P Global 100 (ASX: IOO).

You could go for quality fund managers like Magellan Global Trust (ASX: MGG), WAM Global Limited (ASX: WGB) or Future Generation Investment Company Ltd (ASX: FGX).

Or to build your wealth you could go for some of the best individual shares out there like Brickworks Limited (ASX: BKW), Pushpay Holdings Ltd (ASX: PPH) or Bubs Australia Ltd (ASX: BUB).

More reading

• Revealed: 5 dividend shares for reliable income
• Why high yield dividend shares can be detrimental to your wealth
• Is it time to buy ASX small caps for your portfolio?
• The Pushpay share price is up 70% in 2020: Why I would still invest
• Is it time to invest in shares or wait on the sidelines?

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison owns shares of FUTURE GEN FPO, MAGLOBTRST UNITS, and WAMGLOBAL FPO. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Brickworks, BUBS AUST FPO, and PUSHPAY FPO NZX. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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Superannuation has gotten a lot of publicity lately. On one hand, super balances around the country were subjected to some pretty nasty volatility earlier in the year when the first wave of fear over the coronavirus gripped the markets. Since the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) fell over 38% peak-to-trough in March, most Australians would have seen the value of their super balance fall quite far in all likelihood.

On the other hand, the government has allowed some individuals to withdraw up to $10,000 from their super accounts in this financial year to assist with hardship because of the coronavirus. Another $10,000 is permitted in FY21 (starting in July).

Despite these issues, superannuation still has a powerful potential to help you build long-term wealth – a potential that is too often ignored.

So where does this potential come from? Well, it’s the nature of the super system itself.

The advantages of super

Superannuation isn’t a ‘form of investment’ or an ‘asset class’, as is often misconstrued. It’s merely a vehicle that can hold other assets (like ASX shares) within it.

But unlike investing outside your super fund, the rules over tax are very advantageous if you invest through super.

For one, contributions are typically only taxed at 15% on entry – as opposed to other income which is taxed at your full marginal rate. All earnings that the assets within your fund generate (e.g. dividends and interest) are also taxed at 15%.

As such, super can be viewed as something of a tax shelter.

Now, normally, all Australian employers are required to pay 9.5% of each employee’s salary into super. This level is the bare minimum most employees will receive, but you can also contribute on top of this base with salary sacrificing.

Salary sacrificing is also done with pre-tax dollars (up to a cap), so you will also be paying less tax on this money. Of course, the downside is that you can’t touch the money until retirement.

How superannuation can make you a millionaire

By using this vehicle effectively and over a long period of time, you can significantly boost your wealth and prospects of a comfortable retirement. Compound interest works best when it’s left alone and works even better in a tax-sheltered environment like super.

So if you aren’t already, it might be a good idea to take full advantage of our super system. There are many perks like salary sacrificing to invest within super that investors ignore to their detriment. Don’t be that guy – make sure your super is working as well as it can for you today!

More reading

• Top brokers name 3 ASX 200 shares to buy right now
• LNG spot price surge benefits ASX 200 shares
• The smartest ASX shares to buy if you have $2,000
• ASX gold shares steady: Can gold provide your portfolio with defensive and safe returns?
• Is $1,000 of A2 Milk shares a good investment?

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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