2025 was a decent year for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and most ASX shares. Last week, the ASX 200 closed at 8,714.3 points, up approximately 6.8% for the year. That’s decent, although it could have been better if the index had held to the 9,114 point record high that we saw it hit back in June. But today, let’s discuss an Australian dividend stock that ended the year down 15% from its 2025 high, which I believe represents a compelling opportunity for a buy-and-hold investment today.

That Australian dividend stock is none other than Lottery Corp Ltd (ASX: TLC).

Lottery Corp is a relative ASX newcomer, having been listed in its own right since just May of 2022. Since then, it has performed sluggishly, rising 6.25% since 2022 as of today’s pricing.

Much of this sluggishness can be blamed on the 2025 slump that Lottery Corp endured late last year. Back in September, Lottery Corp hit a new all-time post-float high of $6 a share, putting it up about 25% from its 2022 ASX debut. However, since then, this Australian dividend stock has come off the boil, and quite dramatically. At today’s $5.09 (at the time of writing), Lottery Corp shares are down roughly 15% from that September high.

A lukewarm reception of Lottery Corp’s full-year earnings last August seems to be the culprit for this Australian dividend stock’s share price slump since.

An Australian dividend stock down 15%

To be fair, these earnings were not great. Lottery Corp reported a 6.2% drop in revenues, a 9.4% fall in earnings, and an 11.2% decline in net profits after tax. The one positive for shareholders was a 3.1% hike to the company’s dividend.

Given these numbers, it makes sense for Lottery Corp’s share price to take a hit.

Yet this hit might have created a buying opportunity for long-term investors. Lottery Corp has one of the most reliable earnings bases on the ASX. It holds exclusive licenses to run lotteries and Keno games in most Australian states and territories. Many of these licenses are valid for decades into the future.

Despite year-to-year fluctuations, history has shown that the popularity of lotteries and the like is enduring. I can’t see the appeal of winning a jackpot fading into irrelevance in the years ahead. As such, Lottery Corp is looking tempting as an Australian dividend stock today. With a dividend yield of 3.25% at current pricing (which comes with full franking credits too), I think we are looking at a decent buy-and-hold opportunity for dividend investors.

The post 1 magnificent Australian dividend stock down 15% to buy and hold forever appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Forget term deposits and buy these ASX dividend shares

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended The Lottery Corporation. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended The Lottery Corporation. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

If you had $5,000 to invest in 2026, where could you put it to work on the ASX?

Rather than betting everything on one idea, many investors prefer a balanced mix of quality, defensiveness, and upside potential. This approach can help smooth returns when markets turn volatile, while still leaving room for growth.

With that in mind, here are 3 Australian stocks from different sectors that could make sense as part of a diversified portfolio this year, depending on your risk tolerance and time horizon.

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

CSL is one of Australia’s highest-quality global businesses, operating across blood plasma products, vaccines, and specialist medicines.

The share price had a tough run through 2025, falling sharply after management downgraded earnings expectations. Weaker vaccine demand in the US and higher costs weighed on sentiment.

However, that pullback has caught the attention of brokers. Several analysts believe CSL’s long-term growth story remains intact, driven by rising global demand for plasma therapies and ongoing investment in research and development. Broker consensus ratings still lean towards a ‘buy’ rating, with some price targets implying solid upside if earnings recover over the next 12 to 24 months.

For investors with patience, CSL could appeal as a defensive growth stock trading below previous highs.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)

Woolworths is about as close as it gets to a defensive blue-chip on the ASX.

As Australia’s largest supermarket operator, Woolworths benefits from steady demand for everyday essentials. No matter what the economy is doing, people still need to buy food and household goods.

While Woolworths is not a high-growth stock, it offers reliability. Brokers often point to its strong market position, resilient cash flows, and consistent dividend payments as key attractions. Cost pressures and competition remain challenges, but Woolworths’ scale gives it pricing power that smaller rivals lack.

For a $5,000 portfolio, Woolworths can provide stability and income, helping balance out more volatile investments elsewhere.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

Northern Star adds a different flavour to the mix through gold exposure.

The gold miner enjoyed a strong 2025, but shares pulled back early in 2026 after the company lowered production guidance due to operational issues. That disappointed investors and dragged the share price lower.

Even so, many analysts see Northern Star as a quality operator within the gold sector. If production stabilises and gold prices remain firm, earnings could recover. Gold also tends to perform well during periods of economic uncertainty, which can support miners like Northern Star.

This makes Northern Star the higher-risk, higher-reward option on this list.

Final thoughts

With $5,000 to invest in 2026, these 3 stocks each bring something different to the table. CSL offers long-term growth through global healthcare, Woolworths provides defensive income and earnings stability, and Northern Star adds exposure to gold and cyclical upside.

Combined, this mix offers investors a diversified ASX starting point, balancing risk and opportunity across multiple sectors.

The post Top Australian stocks to buy with $5,000 in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Buying Northern Star shares? Here’s the latest on the gold miner’s production woes
• 2 strong ASX 200 blue chip shares to buy with $7,000
• Why I think this ASX small-cap stock is a bargain at $2.55
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Friday
• How I’d build a high-conviction ASX share portfolio

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to end the week on a positive note. In afternoon trade, the benchmark index is up 0.1% to 8,729 points.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here’s why they are falling:

Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO)

The Core Lithium share price is down 1.5% to 33 cents. This may have been driven by profit taking from some investors after strong gains this week. In fact, the gain was so strong that the Australian stock exchange asked for it to explain the rise on Thursday. Core Lithium responded, stating that it “is not aware of any other explanation that it may have for the recent trading in its securities.” But with lithium prices rebounding strongly in recent months, investors may believe that Core Lithium could soon restart its lithium mining operations.

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN)

The Paladin Energy share price is down 3.5% to $10.52. This is despite there being no news out of the uranium producer on Friday. However, it is worth noting that most ASX uranium stocks are falling today. This could be due to short sellers increasing their positions. Paladin Energy is one of the most shorted shares on the Australian share market.

Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME)

The Pro Medicus share price is down 2% to $211.46. This follows a poor night for US tech stocks, with investors rotating out of the sector and into other areas. It isn’t just Pro Medicus that is falling on Friday. The S&P/ASX Information Technology index is now down by 6% since this time last month.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

The Rio Tinto share price is down 6% to $143.44. Investors have been selling this mining giant’s shares after it revealed that it is looking at a potential merger with Glencore (LSE: GLEN). It said: “Rio Tinto and Glencore have been engaging in preliminary discussions about a possible combination of some or all of their businesses, which could include an all-share merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore. The parties’ current expectation is that any merger transaction would be effected through the acquisition of Glencore by Rio Tinto by way of a Court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement.” Though, it warned that there is no certainty that an offer will be made or as to the terms of any such offer, should one be made. Given the share price reaction, investors don’t appear keen on the potential merger.

The post Why Core Lithium, Paladin Energy, Pro Medicus, and Rio Tinto shares are dropping today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Rio Tinto locks in key 2026 dates. What investors should watch next
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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Pro Medicus. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Investors holding iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV) and iShares Global 100 ETF (ASX: IOO) will receive their dividends today.

As will a slew of other investors holding iShares ASX exchange-traded funds (ETFs) comprised of international shares.

Here’s how much you can expect to receive, according to the final distributions schedule.

If you’ve chosen to reinvest your dividends via the distribution reinvestment plan (DRP), we’ve also included those DRP unit prices below.

Here’s how much you’ll receive in dividends

Here is a summary of the dividend amounts that investors in these iShares ETFs will receive today.

The iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV) will pay 20.14 cents per unit. The DRP price is 68.66 cents.

The iShares Global 100 ETF (ASX: IOO) will pay 56.02 cents per unit. The DRP price is 187.62 cents.

The iShares Asia 50 ETF (ASX: IAA) will pay 102.25 cents per unit. The DRP price is 142.61 cents.

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (ASX: IEM) will pay 60.22 cents per unit. The DRP price is 81.78 cents.

The iShares Europe ETF (ASX: IEU) will pay 111.47 cents per unit. The DRP price is 101.12 cents.

The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (ASX: IJP) will pay 463.45 cents per unit. The DRP price is 1120.14 cents.

The iShares S&P Mid-Cap ETF (ASX: IJH) will pay 20.52 cents per unit. The DRP price is 50.12 cents.

The iShares S&P Small-Cap ETF (ASX: IJR) will pay 72.41 cents per unit. The DRP price is 183.87 cents.

The iShares Global Consumer Staples ETF (ASX: IXI) will pay 70.97 cents per unit. The DRP price is 96.034 cents.

The iShares Global Healthcare ETF (ASX: IXJ) will pay 72.35 cents per unit. The DRP price is 144.79 cents.

The iShares S&P China Large-Cap ETF (ASX: IZZ) will pay 47.14 cents per unit. The DRP price is 56.91 cents.

More dividends to come

If you hold iShares ETFs comprised of ASX shares, you will receive your dividend payments on 19 January.

Blackrock finalised the amounts to be paid this week.

Some examples of these ETFS include the iShares Core S&P/ASX 200 ETF (ASX: IOZ), which will pay 18.37 cents per unit.

iShares S&P/ASX 20 ETF (ASX: ILC) will pay 19.91 cents per unit.

iShares S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries ETF (ASX: ISO) will pay 4.78 cents per unit.

iShares Yield Plus ETF (ASX: IYLD) will pay investors 38.01 cents per unit.

iShares 15+ Year Australian Government Bond ETF (ASX: ALTB) will pay 64.48 cents per unit.

iShares S&P/ASX Dividend Opportunities ESG Screened ETF (ASX: IHD) will pay 14.52 cents per unit.

The post Own IVV or IOO ETFs? It’s dividend payday for you! appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended iShares International Equity ETFs – iShares Global Consumer Staples ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

With less than three hours to go in the first full week of trading in 2026, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up a slender 0.1% since last Friday’s close, with these three ASX 200 stocks racing ahead of those gains.

So, which three stocks are already delivering outsized returns in the new year?

Read on!

Two ASX 200 stocks smashing the benchmark this week

The first company pleasing its shareholders in these early days of 2026 is BlueScope Steel Ltd (ASX: BSL).

Shares in the painted and coated steel products manufacturer closed last Friday trading for $24.14. At the time of writing, shares are changing hands for $29.29 apiece. This sees the ASX 200 stock up an impressive 21.3% over the week.

The bulk of those gains were delivered on Tuesday.

BlueScope shares closed up 20.8% on the day after the company announced that it had received a Non-Binding Indicative Offer from a consortium comprised of SGH Ltd (ASX: SGH) and Steel Dynamics Inc (NASDAQ: STLD) to acquire 100% of its shares.

SGH and the United States-based Steel Dynamics offered $30 per share in cash in their takeover bid. This values BlueScope at $13.2 billion.

But the BlueScope board may be holding out for an even better offer, saying they were still reviewing the takeover proposal.

Commenting on the takeover offer, SGH CEO Ryan Stokes said:

We believe BlueScope’s Australian business is a strong strategic fit for SGH and we have a proven track record of driving performance improvement in domestic industrial businesses. We intend to leverage our disciplined operating model and capital allocation approach to deliver better outcomes for stakeholders.

Which brings us to the second ASX 200 stock shooting the lights out this week, Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR).

Liontown shares closed last Friday trading for $1.62. Shares are currently trading for $2.03 each. This puts the Liontown share price up 25.3% for the week.

There was no fresh news out from the Aussie lithium miner. But we do know that lithium prices have soared some 14% since last Friday amid expectations of increased demand, particularly out of China. Lithium carbonate is now trading at its highest levels since November 2023.

Leading the charge…

Moving on to the top-performing ASX 200 stock on my list for the week, we have Codan Ltd (ASX: CDA).

Shares in the communications and metal detection company closed last week at $29.02 and are currently changing hands for $36.90 apiece. This sees the Codan share price up a whopping 27.2% in this first full trading week of 2026.

Most of those gains are being delivered today.

Codan shares are up 16.9% at the time of writing after the ASX 200 stock released some strong, unaudited H1 FY 2026 results.

Highlights for the six months include a 29% year-on-year increase in revenue to around $394 million.

And on the bottom line, Codan’s underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) surged some 52% from H1 FY 2025 to “not less than” $70 million.

The post 3 ASX 200 stocks rocketing higher in the first full trading week of 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Why Codan, DroneShield, Mesoblast, and Woodside shares are storming higher today
• What’s the real value of BlueScope shares? Jarden analysts weigh in
• Guess which ASX 200 stock is rocketing 24% on impressive half year profit update
• AustralianSuper boosts its stake in takeover target BlueScope Steel
• Codan posts strong first-half FY26 revenue and profit growth

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Steel Dynamics. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) shares are back in the spotlight on Thursday. This comes after the offshore oil producer confirmed its key reporting and shareholder dates for 2026.

At the time of writing, Karoon shares are up 5.82% to $1.545, comfortably outperforming the broader energy sector. The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) is up around 2% today.

While the update does not change guidance or outlook, it does clarify when the company will next report to the market.

Locking in the roadmap for 2026

In its ASX release this morning, Karoon confirmed the timing of its main financial and shareholder events for the year ahead.

The first major milestone is the release of full-year 2025 results on Thursday, 26 February 2026. That update will provide the market with a clearer view of how Karoon’s assets are performing and the level of financial flexibility the business retains.

Beyond results season, Karoon has scheduled its annual general meeting for Thursday, 21 May 2026, with director nominations closing on Tuesday, 31 March 2026.

The next formal financial update is expected later in the year, when Karoon releases its half-year 2026 results on Thursday, 27 August 2026.

Why investors are paying attention

The company has generated strong cash flows from its Brazilian operations in recent periods and has positioned itself as a dividend-paying energy stock. As a result, investors are increasingly focused on when earnings updates and dividend announcements are likely to occur.

Today’s share price strength also coincides with improving sentiment across the energy sector. Oil prices have stabilised following a recent sell-off, prompting renewed interest in producers with operating leverage to crude prices.

Global energy prices have been under pressure heading into 2026, with Brent crude trading near US$60 a barrel following a prolonged downturn from 2025 highs, as supply continues to outpace demand. Natural gas prices have been more volatile, recently easing from seasonal peaks as storage levels remain ample and demand moderates.

The bigger question for shareholders

While today’s announcement provides visibility, it does not answer the key questions investors are asking.

How resilient are Karoon’s margins if oil prices remain volatile? How much cash will be returned to shareholders? And how disciplined will management remain on capital spending?

Those answers will start to emerge with the February results.

In the meantime, I’ll be watching closely, especially if global energy prices stabilise and provide a more supportive backdrop for the stock.

The post Karoon shares surge 6% as investors eye a busy 2026 calendar appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

In afternoon trade, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is on course to record a decent gain. At the time of writing, the benchmark index is up 0.25% to 8,742.7 points.

Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here’s why they are pushing higher:

Codan Ltd (ASX: CDA)

The Codan share price is up 16% to $36.76. Investors have been buying this metal detector and communications products company’s shares following the release of a trading update. Codan revealed that it expects to report a 29% increase in revenue to $394 million for the first half. And thanks to stronger margins, its profit after tax is expected to grow at the even quicker rate of 52% to at least $70 million. Management advised that its revenue and profit growth for the first half of FY 2026 were underpinned by “outstanding results achieved by the metal detection business and ongoing strong performance in the communications segment.”

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO)

The DroneShield share price is up 4% to $4.01. This follows a strong night of trade for US defence stocks after Donald Trump revealed that he is aiming for a US$1.5 trillion defence budget by 2027. On TruthSocial, the US President wrote: “After the long and difficult negotiations with Senators, Congressmen, Secretaries, and other Political Representatives, I have determined that, for the Good of our Country, especially in these very troubled and dangerous times, our Military Budget for the year 2027 should not be $1 Trillion Dollars, rather $1.5 Trillion Dollars.”

Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB)

The Mesoblast share price is up 9.5% to $3.23. Investors have been buying this biotechnology company’s shares following the release of a sales update. The allogeneic cellular medicines developer generated gross revenue of US$35.1 million on Ryoncil (remestemcel-L-rknd) sales for the quarter ended 31 December 2025. This represents a 60% increase on the prior quarter ended 30 September. Mesoblast’s chief executive, Dr. Silviu Itescu, said: “Our strong balance sheet, continued growth in quarterly sales of Ryoncil, and a new lower-cost financing facility provides greater flexibility for strategic partnerships and pursuit of label expansion for Ryoncil.”

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

The Woodside share price is up 3% to $23.62. This has been driven by a jump in oil prices overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was up 3.9% to US$58.15 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was up 4.1% to US$62.41 a barrel. The catalyst for this was supply worries in Russia, Iraq, and Iran.

The post Why Codan, DroneShield, Mesoblast, and Woodside shares are storming higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 ASX 200 stocks rocketing higher in the first full trading week of 2026
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• Why are Mesoblast shares jumping 10% to a 52-week high?
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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

The board of BlueScope Steel Ltd (ASX: BSL) this week rejected an all-cash, $30 per share takeover offer for the company, which raises the question: What is BlueScope actually worth?

BlueScope Chair Jane McAloon was pretty strident in criticising the takeover offer from SGH Ltd (ASX: SGH) and US company Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD) as too low, as you can see from these comments she made on Wednesday.

Let me be clear – this proposal was an attempt to take BlueScope from its shareholders on the cheap. It drastically undervalued our world-class assets, our growth momentum, and our future – and the board will not let that happen. This is the fourth time we’ve said no, and the answer remained the same – BlueScope is worth considerably more than what was on the table.

More upside on offer

The team at Jarden have run the ruler over BlueScope, and it’s fair to say that they agree with the BlueScope board in this regard.

In terms of what might get the board across the line, Jarden had this to say:

The comments seem to suggest any bid would need to include valuation of potential synergies, recognition of latent property value, recognition of North American asset quality and below mid-cycle APAC conditions to gain board support.

The last comment was referring to Ms McAloon’s comments that Asian steel prices are currently at a low ebb, and if prices and foreign exchange rates returned to historical average levels, “this would be expected to generate an additional $400 to $900 million of EBIT per annum relative to FY2025”.

Takeover value much higher

The Jarden analysts said under a “break-up scenario”, they valued BlueScope at $36 per share, 20% higher than the offer currently on the table.

The analysts have revised their 12-month price target on the company to $32 per share, with a 50% probability that the company will not be bought out, and would therefore be worth $28 per share, and a 50% weighting of a bid at $36.

As the analysts said in a note to clients:

We expect BSL’s share price will continue to be driven more by news flow around corporate activity than fundamental valuation. We maintain our neutral rating. The key downside risk is a transaction failing to materialise, while the key upside risk would be a superior proposal.

BlueScope shares were changing hands for $28.83 on Friday morning, down 1.9%.

BlueScope shares closed at $29.40 on Thursday, valuing the company at $12.78 billion.  

The post What’s the real value of BlueScope shares? Jarden analysts weigh in appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 3 ASX 200 stocks rocketing higher in the first full trading week of 2026
• AustralianSuper boosts its stake in takeover target BlueScope Steel
• Why Ansell, Elsight, Ramelius, and SGH shares are falling today
• 10 best ASX 200 large-cap shares of 2025
• BlueScope shares fall after rejecting ‘significantly undervalued’ takeover offer

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Steel Dynamics. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Making bold predictions is part and parcel of investing in risk assets. When they’re right, those predictions can translate into extraordinary returns. When they’re wrong, they tend to age very poorly.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has lived at the centre of that tension for more than a decade. Every year brings a fresh wave of eye-catching forecasts, from imminent collapse to stratospheric gains. 

Very few land anywhere near the mark.

As investors look ahead in 2026, it’s worth stepping back from the noise and asking a simpler question: What is the current state of play for Bitcoin, and what should investors actually be paying attention to?

The state of play for Bitcoin heading into 2026

Bitcoin enters 2026 in a very different position than where it stood just a few years ago.

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in major markets has been a structural shift. Institutional capital now has regulated, familiar pathways to gain exposure, and Bitcoin increasingly trades alongside other global risk assets rather than in isolation.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s price action has appeared more subdued than many long-term holders expected. After periods of explosive upside, stretches of sideways or “boring” trading have returned. That has frustrated momentum traders, but it has also reinforced an important point: Bitcoin is maturing.

Macro conditions now matter more than ever. Interest rate expectations, global liquidity, and central bank policy have all shown a strong influence on Bitcoin’s short-term price movements. When liquidity tightens, Bitcoin has struggled. When conditions ease, it tends to rally alongside equities and other growth assets.

This doesn’t make Bitcoin less volatile. It simply means the drivers of that volatility are clearer and more interconnected with the broader financial system.

The bearish predictions: Why some expect pain ahead

On the bearish side, the arguments are familiar but not irrelevant.

Some critics argue Bitcoin remains vulnerable to sharp drawdowns if global growth slows or financial conditions tighten further. Rising real yields, regulatory uncertainty in certain jurisdictions, and the risk of speculative excess all feature prominently in bearish outlooks.

Others point to Bitcoin’s history of brutal corrections. Even in long-term uptrends, 50% to 80% drawdowns have occurred multiple times. From this perspective, calls for a major pullback in 2026 are not outrageous. They are consistent with Bitcoin’s past behaviour.

More extreme bearish predictions go further, questioning Bitcoin’s intrinsic value altogether. These views tend to resurface whenever price momentum fades, often amplified by headlines designed to provoke fear rather than insight.

The bullish predictions: How high is “too high”?

On the other end of the spectrum sit the bold bullish forecasts.

Some investors project Bitcoin prices well into the hundreds of thousands of US dollars, citing fixed supply, growing institutional adoption, and its emerging role as a hedge against currency debasement. Others attach even larger numbers, arguing that Bitcoin could eventually rival gold or become a global reserve asset.

These scenarios usually rely on long-term adoption curves rather than near-term catalysts. They assume Bitcoin continues to absorb capital from traditional stores of value and benefits from structural distrust in fiat currencies.

The issue is not that these outcomes are impossible. It’s that price targets often get treated as inevitabilities rather than highly uncertain scenarios. Markets rarely move in straight lines, and narratives can change much faster than fundamentals.

What investors should focus on instead

The uncomfortable truth is that nobody knows where the Bitcoin price will be at the end of 2026.

What is far more predictable is that volatility will remain. Bitcoin has never offered a smooth ride, and there is little reason to expect that to change now that it has entered mainstream capital markets.

For investors, the key question is not which prediction sounds most compelling, but whether they have built genuine conviction. That means understanding why Bitcoin exists, what role it might play in a portfolio, and how much volatility it can realistically tolerate.

Pinning hopes on the loudest voice or the boldest headline is rarely a sound strategy. 

In 2026, as in every year before it, Bitcoin will likely surprise both bulls and bears. Investors who approach it with clear expectations, sober risk management, and independent thinking will be best placed to handle whatever comes next.

The post Bold calls, big risks, and what really matters for Bitcoin price in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Leigh Gant owns Bitcoin. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Bitcoin. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Shares in Australian defence companies with exposure to the US are trending higher on Friday after comments overnight from US President Donald Trump that he’d like to see a massive increase in defence spending.

President Trump said that the 2027 US defence budget should be US$1.5 trillion, well above the US$901 million so far approved.

Unsettled times ahead

Mr Trump said in a post to social media site Truth Social that he had determined that military spending needed to be increased “in these very troubled and dangerous times”.

He added:

Our military budget for the year 2027 should not be $1 trillion dollars, but rather $1.5 trillion dollars. This will allow us to build the ‘Dream Military’ that we have long been entitled to and, more importantly, will keep us SAFE and SECURE, regardless of foe.

Mr Trump also credited an increase in revenue from his tariff measures as allowing the substantial increase in military spending to take place.

US defence stocks such as Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin increased substantially following the comments, although both were coming off weakness in the previous session.

Closer to home shares in Austal Ltd (ASX: ASB), DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) and Elsight Ltd (ASX: ELS) were higher in early trade on Friday.

Austal has significant facilities in the US and could stand to benefit from an increase in US defence spending.

It has a shipyard in Mobile Alabama where it is working on the construction of a new surface ship assembly building which is on track for completion in 2027.

The company’s website says it has delivered 34 ships to the US Navy since 2009.

Austal also has production facilities in Australia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

DroneShield has significant business in the US, announcing in November that it had been awarded three contracts worth $7.6 million for counter-drone packages, with those contracts to be fulfilled in 2025 and payments to come in by the end of the current quarter.

The company said at the time it was looking to greatly expand in both Europe and the US by the end of 2026, “including commencement of European and US-based assembly plants”.

Elsight also has US interests, announcing just this week that it had received a $682,000 order from a US commercial customer in the public safety sector.

Austal shares were 2.9% higher at $8.03 on Friday morning. DroneShield shares were up 1.8% at $3.92 and Elsight shares were 2.9% higher at $3.57.

The post Aussie defence stocks tick higher on bullish Trump comments appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended DroneShield. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.