On Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) finished the week with a small decline. The benchmark index fell 0.15% to 8,617.1 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall again

The Australian share market looks set for a disappointing start to the week following declines on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 61 points or 0.7% lower. In the United States, the Dow Jones was down 0.25%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 0.9%.

Oil prices rise

It could be a positive start to the week for ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices charged higher on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was up 3.1% to US$98.71 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was up 2.7% to US$103.14 a barrel. This was despite US efforts to reduce prices.

ASX 200 shares going ex-div

A number of ASX 200 shares are going ex-dividend this morning and could trade lower. This includes Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM), Chorus Ltd (ASX: CNU), Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB), Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd (ASX: KCN), and Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS). Hub24 is rewarding shareholders with a 36 cents per share fully franked dividend next month on 21 April.

Gold price falls

ASX 200 gold shares such as Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a poor start to the week after the gold price tumbled on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was down 2% to US$5,023.1 an ounce. This was the second week in a row of weekly declines in response to inflation and rate hike concerns.

Buy Cochlear shares

The team at Wilsons thinks investors should be buying Cochlear Ltd (ASX: COH) shares. It highlights that the hearing solution company’s shares are trading at a material discount to long-term multiples. The broker said: “Cochlear trades on a forward P/E multiple of ~26x, representing a >10 year low and a material discount to its 10-year average of ~42x. We view this as a compelling entry point for a high-quality business ahead of accelerating earnings growth.”

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Here’s why ASX 200 energy shares were the only risers last week
• 3 defensive ASX ETFs to battle through market turmoil
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure successfully issues inaugural A$350m medium-term note
• Why CAR Group, Immutep, Northern Star, and Syrah Resources shares are sinking today

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Cochlear and Woodside Energy Group Ltd. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Cochlear and Hub24. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Cochlear and Hub24. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

For new investors, building a portfolio can be an overwhelming task. 

The ASX currently has more than 2,000 listed companies to choose from, not to mention access to international stocks as well. 

That’s why a base portfolio of a few ASX ETFs can be a great starting point. 

ASX ETFs offer instant diversification in one simple trade. 

This can be especially attractive when the market is experiencing significant volatility, as has occurred over the past couple of weeks.

Current conflict in the Middle East is causing significant fluctuations day to day for many Australian and global blue-chip stocks.

With this uncertainty and volatility likely to continue in the short-term, it is important to have a portfolio spread across various sectors and countries. 

These three funds would make an ideal starting point for a new investor aiming for a broadly diversified portfolio. 

Global X Australia 300 Etf (ASX: A300)

As the name suggests, this fund offers exposure to the 300 largest Australian companies listed on the ASX.

Typically, investors track the performance of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO). 

However, this fund offers exposure to a broader set of companies than the typical 200 Australian companies.

Its largest exposure is to Australia’s two largest companies by market cap: 

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA)
• BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP). 

These two holdings represent roughly 20% of the fund. 

BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ)

With Australia’s market covered by the A300 fund, adding the BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF provides a US focus. 

This ASX ETF comprises 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq market, and includes many companies that are at the forefront of the new economy.

The NASDAQ 100 is often referred to as the “new economy.” 

With its strong focus on technology, NDQ ETF provides diversified exposure to a high-growth potential sector that is under-represented in the Australian sharemarket.

It includes some of the biggest global companies like Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN). 

It has a strong track record, rising 84% over the last 5 years. 

Betashares Global Shares Ex Us Etf (ASX: EXUS)

With bases covered in Australia and the US, this ASX ETF provides a more global outlook. 

It provides exposure to 900+ large and mid-cap companies from 22 developed markets excluding the US and Australia.

Its largest exposure by country is to: 

• Japan (23.8%)
• Britain (13.2%)
• Canada (12.6%). 

With the US historically representing the majority of developed markets, adding exposure outside the US provides both geographic and sector diversification. 

Compared to US focused exposures, EXUS WTF has a higher weighting to sectors such as financials and industrials, and a lower weighting to technology.

The post 3 ASX ETFs for new investors to consider in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has positions in BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF and is short shares of BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Exchange traded funds (ETFs) can be a simple way to build a diversified portfolio.

But with so many to choose from, it can be hard to decide which ones to buy.

To narrow things down, let’s take a look at five ASX ETFs that could be worth considering for the next five years.

Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ)

The first ASX ETF that could be a strong option is the Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF.

This fund tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, which includes many of the world’s leading technology companies. These businesses operate in areas such as cloud computing, artificial intelligence, digital advertising, and ecommerce.

The index has historically delivered strong returns due to the dominance of these global technology leaders and their ability to grow revenue at scale.

For investors looking to gain exposure to the companies driving much of the digital economy, this ETF could be the one.

iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV)

Another ASX ETF that could be worth considering is the iShares S&P 500 ETF.

This fund tracks the S&P 500 index, providing exposure to 500 of the largest companies listed in the United States.

The index includes businesses across a wide range of industries such as healthcare, consumer goods, financial services, and technology. This diversification has helped the S&P 500 deliver strong long-term performance over many decades.

Because of its broad exposure to the world’s largest economy, many investors use this ETF as a core long-term holding.

Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (ASX: VGS)

Investors looking for broader global exposure might want to consider the Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF.

This ASX ETF provides access to a large portfolio of developed market companies across North America, Europe, and Asia.

By investing in a wide range of industries and countries, the fund offers global diversification beyond the Australian market.

This can be particularly useful for investors who want exposure to global leaders across technology, healthcare, consumer brands, and industrial sectors.

BetaShares S&P/ASX Australian Technology ETF (ASX: ATEC)

Another ASX ETF that could be worth a look is the BetaShares S&P/ASX Australian Technology ETF.

This fund focuses on Australia’s leading technology shares, including businesses involved in software, digital platforms, and online services.

Australia’s technology sector has grown significantly over the past decade, with companies expanding globally and building scalable digital platforms. However, a recent selloff has dragged valuations down significantly, potentially making now an opportune time to invest.

This fund was recently recommended by analysts at Betashares.

Betashares Global Cybersecurity ETF (ASX: HACK)

A final ASX ETF that could be worth considering is the Betashares Global Cybersecurity ETF.

Cybersecurity has become an increasingly important industry as governments, corporations, and individuals rely more heavily on digital systems.

This ETF provides exposure to companies involved in protecting networks, cloud infrastructure, and sensitive data from cyber threats.

With cyberattacks becoming more frequent and sophisticated, demand for cybersecurity solutions is expected to remain strong for many years. This bodes well for the fund’s holdings and provides them with a long growth runway.

The post 5 fantastic ASX ETFs to buy and hold for five years appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF, BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, and iShares S&P 500 ETF and is short shares of BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Vanguard Msci Index International Shares ETF and iShares S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It was another busy week for Australia’s top brokers. This has led to the release of a number of broker notes.

Three broker buy ratings that you might want to know more about are summarised below. Here’s why brokers think these ASX shares are in the buy zone:

Catapult Sports Ltd (ASX: CAT)

According to a note out of Morgans, its analysts have retained their buy rating and $6.25 price target on this sports technology company’s shares. Morgans has been busy updating its forecasts to incorporate the IMPECT and IsoLynx transactions. In addition, the broker is positive on the company due to its strong growth outlook. It has previously spoken about how it believes Catapult can grow its revenue by 20% per annum over the next three years to reach US$180 million by FY 2028. As a result, Morgans sees plenty of value on offer here and appears to see recent share price weakness as a buying opportunity. The Catapult share price ended the week at $3.37.

Magellan Financial Group Ltd (ASX: MFG)

Another note out of Morgans reveals that its analysts have upgraded this fund manager’s shares to a buy rating with a $12.43 price target. The broker made the move after reviewing the company’s plans to merge with Barrenjoey. Morgans thinks the deal makes strategic sense and believes it will reinvigorate the Magellan story. While the broker feels the deal pricing is tilted in Barrenjoey’s favour, it still sees plenty to like here for Magellan shareholders. It notes that the merger fundamentally changes the company’s overall outlook, strengthens the business, and provides additional pathways to growth. The Magellan share price was fetching $10.12 at Friday’s close.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

Analysts at Macquarie have retained their buy rating and $3.35 price target on this buy now pay later provider’s shares. According to the note, the broker has been looking at Zip’s business model and remains positive on its outlook. Macquarie thinks investors should look beyond Zip’s moderating operating leverage and focus on its medium-term growth outlook. It is expecting Zip’s U.S. net transaction margin to improve sequentially in both the March and June quarters. And while loan losses are rising relative to total transaction value, Macquarie highlights that this is because Zip is bringing on new users. Furthermore, management has the ability to quickly remove defaulters, boosting its loan loss metrics. The Zip share price was trading at $1.62 on Friday.

The post Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

ASX 200 energy shares outperformed the 10 other market sectors as the war in Iran raged on last week.

In fact, energy was the only sector to finish the week in the green, rising 1.72%.

The broader market remained unsettled, with the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) falling 2.64% to 8,617.1 points.

Traders and investors worried that the war could turn into an entrenched conflict that would keep oil prices elevated.

This would have significant implications for inflation and interest rates, as higher petrol and gas prices would create greater cost pressures across entire economies.

Amid the uncertainty of what will happen next, the ASX 200 was volatile and oil prices spiked, then slumped, then spiked again.

At the start of the week, oil prices surged 25% to nearly US$120 per barrel before cliff diving to less than US$90 the very next day.

Oil prices have gone higher due to the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz.

More than 20% of the world’s global oil and gas exports, mostly from Iran, Iraq, Qatar, and the UAE, pass through the strait.

By Friday, Brent Crude was trading above US$100 per barrel again, while WTI Crude was fetching US$95 per barrel.

On Friday, Trading Economics analysts said:

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledged to keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut.

He also warned that Iran may open additional fronts in the conflict if the US and Israel continue their attacks, while US President Donald Trump said preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and posing a threat to the Middle East is more important to him than the cost of oil. 

Energy shares led the ASX sectors last week

Let’s take a look at how some of the ASX 200 energy shares performed last week.

ASX 200 oil & gas giant Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) rose 0.94% to close the week at $31.04 per share.

The Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) share price also lifted 0.94% to $7.53.

The Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) share price ascended 0.87% to $1.16.

The Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) share price fell 0.36% to $30.85.

The Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX: VEA) share price rose 1.9% to $2.14.

The Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) share price finished the week 1.1% higher at $1.84.

ASX 200 coal shares also rose last week, as gas supply disruptions forced power plants around the world to switch to coal.

The Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL) share price ripped 27.33% to $8.06, after hitting a new 52-week high of $8.27 on Friday.

Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) shares ascended 10.26% to $9.35 apiece.

The New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC) share price lifted 6.15% to $5.35, after reaching a 52-week peak of $5.41 on Friday.

ASX 200 market sector snapshot

Here’s how the 11 market sectors stacked up last week, according to CommSec data.

Over the five trading days:

S&P/ASX 200 market sector	Change last week
Energy (ASX: XEJ)	1.72%
Financials (ASX: XFJ)	(0.37%)
Consumer Discretionary (ASX: XDJ)	(2.07%)
Utilities (ASX: XUJ)	(2.68%)
Consumer Staples (ASX: XSJ)	(2.69%)
Communication (ASX: XTJ)	(2.71%)
Industrials (ASX: XNJ)	(4.33%)
Healthcare (ASX: XHJ)	(4.64%)
Materials (ASX: XMJ)	(4.73%)
A-REIT (ASX: XPJ)	(5.04%)
Information Technology (ASX: XIJ)	(6.99%)

The post Here’s why ASX 200 energy shares were the only risers last week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Are you looking for big potential returns to supercharge your investment portfolio?

If you are, then it could be worth considering the two ASX 200 shares named below that Morgans is bullish on. Here’s why it thinks they could rise strongly from current levels:

Domino’s Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP)

This beaten-down pizza chain operator could be an ASX 200 share with major upside according to the broker.

Morgans has a buy rating and $25.00 price target on the company’s shares. Based on its current share price of $18.60, this implies potential upside of 34% for investors over the next 12 months.

The broker appears optimistic on management’s strategic reset. It explains:

1H26 marks a clear strategic reset for DMP, with management prioritising a more profitable operating model over near-term volume. SSS was hard to digest, below expectations, but the balance of new information was encouraging, underpinned by a 4.5% lift in franchisee profitability and further cost-out opportunities.

We believe early actions from the new leadership team are directionally sound, although this is a multi-year turnaround and proof of execution is still required. Returning economics to franchisees is a prerequisite for improved sales momentum and store roll-outs, meaning shareholders may need to be patient, but the prize is there if the strategy is delivered. BUY maintained with an unchanged target price of $25.00.

Siteminder Ltd (ASX: SDR)

Another ASX 200 share that gets the thumbs up from Morgans is hotel technology company Siteminder.

Morgans has a buy rating and $7.00 price target on the company’s shares. Based on its current share price of $3.19, this implies potential upside of over 100% between now and this time next year.

The broker believes the company’s shares are severely undervalued. It explains:

SDR’s 1H26 result was largely per expectations at the revenue line (A$131m, +23% on the pcp on a constant currency basis), however marginally below at EBITDA. Growth in transaction revenue and the mix shift towards the higher margin Smart Platform offering saw the group gross margin expand ~98bps to 67.8%.

Key business metrics remain robust (e.g LTV/CAC of 6.7x, ARR and Rule of 40 growth). We undertake a broad review of our assumptions in this update. Our price target is lowered to A$7.00 (from A$8.10) as a result. However, given the significant discount of the current share price versus our valuation we upgrade to a BUY recommendation.

The post These ASX 200 shares could rise 30% to 100% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Domino’s Pizza Enterprises. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises and SiteMinder. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended SiteMinder. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Domino’s Pizza Enterprises. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

Market crashes can feel unsettling, especially when they happen quickly.

Prices fall, headlines turn negative, and it suddenly feels like everyone is asking the same question: Should I be doing something right now?

I think the best response to market volatility is often surprisingly simple. Here’s what I’d do.

Step one: stay calm

The first thing I’d do is remind myself that market corrections are normal.

The ASX has experienced plenty of selloffs over the years. The COVID crash in 2020, the inflation-driven selloff in 2022, and numerous smaller corrections before and after.

Yet despite those setbacks, the market has continued to trend higher over the long term and reached new highs.

Short-term ASX share market declines can feel dramatic in the moment, but historically they have often turned out to be temporary.

Step two: review the businesses I own

If share prices fall sharply, the next thing I would do is look at the ASX shares I already own.

The key question is simple: has anything actually changed about the underlying business?

If the investment thesis remains intact and the company continues to perform well operationally, then a lower share price can sometimes represent an opportunity rather than a problem.

High-quality blue-chip ASX shares such as Goodman Group (ASX: GMG), ResMed Inc. (ASX: RMD), and Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) have all experienced periods of market volatility in the past. But their long-term performance has largely been driven by the strength of their underlying businesses rather than short-term sentiment.

Step three: look for opportunities

Market pullbacks can also create opportunities to buy ASX shares that previously looked too expensive.

When the market is rising, it can be difficult to find attractive entry points for some of the highest-quality businesses on the ASX.

But when sentiment turns negative, those same companies can sometimes trade at far more reasonable valuations.

This is often when long-term investors start paying closer attention.

Step four: keep investing

Perhaps the most important thing I’d try to remember during market volatility is that investing is a long-term process.

Trying to perfectly time the market rarely works. Instead, continuing to invest steadily through different market conditions often proves to be the more effective approach.

Over time, that discipline allows investors to buy shares at a range of prices, including during periods when markets are temporarily depressed.

Foolish takeaway

Market crashes can feel dramatic in the moment, but they are also part of the investing journey.

Rather than panic when share prices fall, I prefer to see volatility as a chance to reassess the businesses I own and potentially buy high-quality ASX shares at lower prices.

History suggests that investors who stay calm during market downturns often end up being the ones who benefit the most when markets eventually recover.

The post If the ASX crashes tomorrow, here’s exactly what I’d do appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goodman Group and ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed and Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

It’s hard to ignore the growing sense of unease in the share market right now.

Rising geopolitical tensions, surging oil prices, and ongoing concerns that artificial intelligence (AI) will disrupt parts of the technology sector have all contributed to increased volatility. At the same time, the ASX only recently pushed toward record highs, which naturally raises questions about how much further the market can run.

None of this guarantees that a stock market crash is coming. Markets are notoriously difficult to predict.

But I do think it’s fair to say that a sharper pullback in share prices is a possibility investors should at least be prepared for.

Market corrections are normal

One thing I always remind myself is that market corrections are a normal part of investing.

Even strong long-term bull markets experience regular pullbacks along the way. Sometimes these are triggered by economic events, geopolitical tensions, or interest rate changes. Other times, they simply happen because sentiment becomes stretched.

Either way, they can feel uncomfortable when they occur.

But history shows that corrections are not only common, they are often temporary.

The COVID crash is a good reminder

A good example of this came during the COVID market crash in early 2020.

At the time, fear was everywhere. The ASX 200 fell more than 30% in a matter of weeks as the world faced an unprecedented global shutdown. For many investors, it felt like the beginning of a prolonged financial crisis.

Yet the opposite happened.

Markets recovered far faster than most people expected, and many investors who bought during that period saw extraordinary returns in the years that followed.

High-quality ASX shares such as Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), and ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD) all went on to reach significantly higher levels after the crash.

Why I think preparation matters

For me, the lesson from that experience is not that crashes should be feared.

Instead, it’s that they should be prepared for.

If markets fall sharply, the investors who are able to stay calm and think long term are often the ones who benefit the most. Lower share prices can create opportunities to buy strong businesses at valuations that may not be available during bull markets.

Of course, not every falling stock is a bargain. Some businesses decline for very good reasons.

But when quality ASX shares get caught up in broad market sell-offs, long-term investors sometimes get a second chance to buy them at attractive prices.

Foolish Takeaway

No one can predict exactly when the next stock market crash or correction will arrive, or how deep it might be.

But if it does happen, I would view it less as a disaster and more as a potential opportunity.

History suggests that some of the best long-term investments are made during periods when the market feels the most uncertain. The key is having the patience and discipline to take advantage of those moments when they appear.

The post A stock market crash feels like it might be imminent appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Commonwealth Bank Of Australia and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended ResMed and Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended ResMed. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

With rising expectations of back-to-back interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) could receive a sizeable boost on Tuesday should the RBA opt to hold rates steady.

(I’m not holding my breath in hopes of a cut.)

As you’re likely aware, at its last meeting on 3 February, Australia’s central bank increased the official cash rate by 0.25%, bringing it back to 3.85%.

“The board considers that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time… and it was appropriate to increase the cash rate target,” the RBA noted on the day.

The inflationary pressures the Aussie economy was facing in February – including housing and a tight labour market – are still in play this month. But since then, we’ve also witnessed the outbreak of the major Middle East conflict. That’s seen global oil prices leap above US$100 per barrel.

So, is there still a chance ASX 200 investors could get an interest rate reprieve on Tuesday?

Here’s what the experts are telling us.

What the experts forecast for Tuesday’s RBA interest rate call

“For the RBA, an energy shock was the last thing they needed. Inflation was already running above target before the Iran conflict began,” eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert said.

As for the likelihood of a Tuesday interest rate increase, Gilbert noted:

Deputy Governor Hauser’s comments this week were about as close to a signal as you’ll get without explicitly pre-committing to a move.

Saying that further price increases from Iran are ‘not a helpful development’, while reminding everyone of the RBA’s commitment to bringing inflation back to target, is not the language of a central bank preparing to sit on its hands.

Gilbert said that whatever the outcome, the RBA’s decision won’t be an easy one this month.

“Petrol prices are climbing, which feeds directly into broader consumer prices, but that same energy shock could slow the global economy and weigh on growth,” he said. “Governor Bullock has arguably one of the toughest calls since taking the job on her hands.”

On Friday, the RBA rate indicator showed markets pricing in a 66% chance of an interest rate boost this Tuesday.

But Ebury market analyst Anthony Malouf doesn’t expect the central bank to move quite so quickly.

“This oil price shock arrives at an awkward time for the RBA, given it was already forecasting inflation to remain outside its target band until mid-2027,” he said.

Malouf added:

Despite these upside risks, we do not anticipate an immediate rate hike next week. Instead, we expect the board to use the March meeting to firmly put the market on notice and re-establish a clear hawkish bias.

The RBA will likely wait to digest data, in particular the full Q1 CPI print in late April, to definitively gauge the impact of the events in the Middle East. Indeed, we believe this will provide the necessary ammunition to deliver a 25bp rate hike at the May board meeting.

Stay tuned!

The post Buying ASX shares? Here’s what to expect from Tuesday’s RBA interest rate decision appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares may be one of the first candidates that passive income investors look at for dividends because of its blue-chip status.

NAB is in a competitive landscape, with names like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC), Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), and Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) to just name a few of the other ASX bank shares trying to win loans.

But because NAB has a fairly generous dividend payout ratio and a relatively low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, it can offer investors a good dividend yield.

Dividend potential of NAB shares

According to CMC Invest’s estimate, the business is projected to pay an annual dividend per share of $1.705 in FY26, then rise to $1.72 in FY27.

While that’s not the fastest growth rate in the world, it does represent forecast growth year over year.

At a time of elevated financial uncertainty, any dividend growth would be welcome, in my view.

At the current NAB share price, that represents a cash dividend yield of 3.6% and a grossed-up dividend yield of 5.2%, including the franking credits.

Further dividend growth is expected in FY28, though that’s a few years away, so I wouldn’t be as confident about that projection as the nearer-term forecasts. The 2028 financial year annual dividend per share is estimated to be $1.755.

How much passive income for a $5,000 investment?

NAB’s focus on business banking has allowed its profitability to remain relatively strong, and that could help a $5,000 investment deliver a solid return.

Based on the above yields, making a $5,000 investment today could mean unlocking $260 of annual passive income, including the franking credits. Just the cash part of the passive income would be $182, excluding franking credits.

Is this a good time to invest in NAB shares?

Analysts generally don’t seem to think so, based on their price targets.

A price target indicates where the analyst expects the share price to be in 12 months from the time of the investment call.

According to CMC Invest, there are currently four buy ratings, one hold rating, and four sell ratings on the business. However, the average price target on NAB shares is $42.20, implying a decline of around 10%, according to CMC Invest.

The most optimistic price target is $50.64 – implying a possible rise of less than 10%, while the most pessimistic price target is $30, implying a decline of 36% from where it is at the time of writing.

In my view, there are other ASX dividend shares that would make better buys for both stronger dividend yields and better capital growth potential.

The post If I invest $5,000 in NAB shares, how much passive income will I receive in 2027? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bendigo And Adelaide Bank and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.